2025 NFL Mock Draft Day 2

33. Cleveland Browns – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)

34. Houston Texans – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)

35. Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)

36. Cleveland Browns – DE Mike Green (Marshall)

37. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

38. New England Patriots – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)

39. Chicago Bears – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

40. New Orleans Saints – QB Tyler Shough (Cincinnati)

41. Chicago Bears – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)

42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

44. Dallas Cowboys – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)

45. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)

46. Los Angeles Rams – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)

47. Arizona Cardinals – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)

48. Miami Dolphins – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

49. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)

50. Seattle Seahawks – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)

51. Denver Broncos – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)

52. Seattle Seahawks – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)

53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)

54. Green Bay Packers – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)

55. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)

56. Buffalo Bills – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)

57. Carolina Panthers – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)

58. Houston Texans – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)

59. Baltimore Ravens – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)

60. Detroit Lions – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)

61. Washington Commanders – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)

62. Buffalo Bills – WR Jack Bech (TCU)

63. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)

64. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)

65. New York Giants – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)

66. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)

67. Cleveland Browns – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)

68. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)

69. New England Patriots – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)

71. New Orleans Saints – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)

72. Chicago Bears – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)

73. New York Jets – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)

74. Carolina Panthers – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)

75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)

76. Dallas Cowboys – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)

77. New England Patriots – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)

78. Arizona Cardinals – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)

79. Houston Texans – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)

80. Indianapolis Colts – G Tate Rutledge (Georgia)

81. Cincinnati Bengals – G Miles Frazier (LSU)

82. Seattle Seahawks – WR Tai Felton (Maryland)

83. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)

85. Denver Broncos – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)

86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)

87. Green Bay Packers – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)

88. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)

89. Houston Texans – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)

90. Los Angeles Rams – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)

91. Baltimore Ravens – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)

92. Seattle Seahawks – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)

93. New Orleans Saints – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)

94. Cleveland Browns – WR Tory Horton (Colorado State)

95. Kansas City Chiefs – S Andrew Mukaba (Texas)

96. Philadelphia Eagles – S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)

97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Nohl Williams (California)

98. Miami Dolphins – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)

99. Houston Texans – DE Sai’vion Jones (LSU)

100. San Francisco 49ers – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)

101. Atlanta Falcons – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)

102. Detroit Lions – WR Savion Williams (TCU)

2025 NFL Mock Draft (Final)

() in trades is the pick value on NFL Draft trade value chart

  1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward (Miami)
  2. Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)
  3. New York Giants – DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)
  4. Chicago Bears (TRADE) – RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Chicago gives 10 (1300) and 39 (510) for 4 (1800)

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham (Michigan)
  2. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Will Campbell (LSU)
  3. New York Jets – OT Armand Membou (Missouri)
  4. Carolina Panthers – DE Jalon Walker (Georgia)
  5. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE) – TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Indianapolis gives 14 (1100), 45 (450), and 151 (31) for 9 (1350) and 71 (235)

  1. New England Patriots (TRADE) – OT Kelvin Banks (Texans)
  2. Denver Broncos (TRADE) – RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Denver gives 20 (850) and 51 (390) for 11 (1250)

  1. Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetaiora McMillan (Arizona State)
  2. Miami Dolphins – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)
  3. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – QB Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
  4. Atlanta Falcons – DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)
  5. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Cleveland gives 33 (580), 67 (255), and a 2026 2nd round pick for 16 (1000)

  1. Houston Texans (TRADE) – OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

Houston gives 25 (720), 79 (195), and a 2026 4th round pick for 17 (950)

  1. Seattle Seahawks – TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)
  3. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DT Walter Nolen (Mississippi)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers – DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)
  6. Green Bay Packers – DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)
  7. Minnesota Vikings – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)
  8. Cincinnati Bengals (TRADE) – DE Mike Green (Marshall)
  9. Los Angeles Rams – CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)
  10. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
  11. New England Patriots (TRADE) – WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

New England gives 38 (520) and 69 (245) for 28 (660) and 102 (92)

  1. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)

Arizona gives 33 (580) and 115 (64) for 29 (640)

  1. Buffalo Bills – DE James Pearce (Tennessee)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)
  4. Washington Commanders (TRADE) – S Malaki Starks (Georgia)
  5. New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
  6. Tennessee Titans – WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)
  8. Las Vegas Raiders – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
  9. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – G Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
  10. New England Patriots (TRADE) – G Tyler Booker (Alabama)
  11. New Orleans Saints – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)
  12. Chicago Bears – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)
  13. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)
  14. San Francisco 49ers – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)
  15. Dallas Cowboys – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)
  16. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)
  17. Atlanta Falcons – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)
  18. Arizona Cardinals – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)
  19. Miami Dolphins – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)
  20. Cincinnati Bengals – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)
  21. Seattle Seahawks – G Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
  22. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)
  23. Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)
  24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)
  25. Green Bay Packers – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)
  26. Los Angeles Chargers – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)
  27. Buffalo Bills – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE) – QB Tyler Shough (Louisville)

Pittsburgh gives 83 (175) and a 2026 2nd round pick for 57 (330)

  1. Houston Texans – WR Jack Bech (TCU)
  2. Baltimore Ravens – DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)
  3. Detroit Lions – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)
  4. Washington Commanders – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)
  5. Buffalo Bills – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)
  6. Kansas City Chiefs – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)
  7. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)
  8. New York Giants – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)
  9. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)
  10. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)
  11. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)
  12. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)
  13. Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)
  14. Indianapolis Colts – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)
  15. Chicago Bears – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)
  16. New York Jets – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)
  17. Carolina Panthers – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)
  18. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)
  19. Dallas Cowboys – G Tate Rutledge (Georgia)
  20. New England Patriots – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)
  21. Arizona Cardinals – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)
  22. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)
  23. Indianapolis Colts – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)
  24. Cincinnati Bengals – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)
  25. Seattle Seahawks – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)
  26. Carolina Panthers (TRADE) – WR Tai Felton (Maryland)
  27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)
  28. Denver Broncos – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)
  29. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)
  30. Green Bay Packers – WR Tory Horton (Colorado State)
  31. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)
  32. Houston Texans – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)
  33. Los Angeles Rams – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)
  34. Baltimore Ravens – G Miles Frazier (LSU)
  35. Seattle Seahawks – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)
  36. New Orleans Saints – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)
  37. Cleveland Browns – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)
  38. Kansas City Chiefs – RB DJ Giddens (Kansas State)
  39. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)
  40. Minnesota Vikings – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)
  41. Miami Dolphins – S Andrew Mukuba (Texas)
  42. New York Giants – TE Mitchell Evans (Notre Dame)
  43. San Francisco 49ers – RB Jordan James (Oregon)
  44. Los Angeles Rams – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)
  45. New England Patriots (TRADE) – RB RJ Harvey (Central Florida)

2025 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 4/16/25

*Had a private workout with the team

1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward (Miami)*

The Titans have all but announced that Cam Ward will be their pick here, cancelling private workouts with all other options. Earlier in the draft process, there was some thought that the Titans weren’t thrilled with their options and might trade down, but Ward is far and away the best quarterback prospect in a weak quarterback draft, even if he might not truly be an elite prospect, and the Titans don’t have another good option at the position.

2. Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)*

The Browns desperately need a quarterback, but it doesn’t sound like they are sold enough on any quarterback other than Cam Ward to take one here and, with Ward almost definitely going to be off the board, the Browns are likely to go in another direction. Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are the two best players in this draft and both would be great picks for the Browns, but it sounds like they prefer Travis Hunter, which makes sense, because he fills a bigger need. 

3. New York Giants – DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)*

The Giants are in a similar situation as the Browns, desperately needing a quarterback, but unsold on any of the available options. They will likely just take whichever of Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter the Browns don’t take. The Giants are probably hoping for Hunter because he fills a bigger need, but I don’t think they would be unhappy with Carter. Perhaps this selection would be followed by a trade of Kayvon Thibadeoux, who has been solid, but hasn’t really lived up to the billing of being a top-5 pick and who has just one more year before his expensive 5th year option kicks in.

4. New England Patriots – OT Will Campbell (LSU)*

The Patriots are obviously hoping that either the Browns or Giants get desperate for a quarterback and reach on one in the top-3, allowing either Hunter or Carter to fall to them at 4, but that seems unlikely at this point. The Patriots’ second best option would be to trade out of this pick to accumulate additional picks, but it’s unclear if there is anyone available at this spot that any team would want to give up significant draft capital to move up for. If the Patriots stay put, Will Campbell seems like the favorite. He’s not an elite left tackle prospect because of his short arms and lack of top end athleticism, but the Patriots desperately need offensive line help and, even if Campbell ends up not being able to play left tackle long-term, he almost definitely will be an above average starter for them somewhere for years to come. 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham (Michigan)

Coming into the off-season, the Jaguars biggest needs were offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver, and defensive tackle, in some order. In free agency, they signed cornerback Jourdan Lewis to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal, wide receiver Dyami Brown to a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, and offensive linemen Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari to deals worth 21 million over 3 years and 37.5 million over 3 years respectively, but they didn’t add anyone at the defensive tackle position. It’s possible the Jaguars still address one of those other positions, but it’s more likely that their free agent signings were telling of their plans with this pick and there is a strong argument to be made that Graham is best available anyway. 

6. Las Vegas Raiders – RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)*

The Raiders addressed their quarterback need by trading for Geno Smith, so now they can address other needs or take the best player available. Taking Ashton Jeanty here arguably accomplishes both of those goals. You could make the argument that he is the best player in the draft overall, but because he is a running back, he is unlikely to go in the top-5, given the needs of those teams and the relatively low position value of running backs. Despite one of the thinnest running back rooms in the league, the Raiders didn’t do much to address the position in free agency, perhaps signaling their intention with this pick. New head coach Pete Carroll could easily see Jeanty as his next Marshawn Lynch, a player Jeanty is frequently compared to.

7. New York Jets – OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

The Jets could go three different directions with this pick and none of them would surprise me. They could address their receiving corps, either with wide receiver Tet McMillan or tight end Tyler Warren, or they could take offensive tackle Armand Membou and play him opposite last year’s first round pick Olu Fashanu, without another good offensive tackle option on the roster. Membou has more positional value than Warren and seems to generally be higher rated than McMillan, so I would consider him the favorite, but none of those three options would surprise me.

8. Carolina Panthers – DE Jalon Walker (Georgia)*

The Panthers have a few options here, including the top tight end Tyler Warren, but it is starting to seem like the Panthers would prefer to improve their terrible defense and that Jalon Walker would be their preferred choice to accomplish that goal. He would be a big upgrade for a Panthers team that hasn’t replaced Brian Burns after trading him last off-season and that is currently led at the edge defender position by Jadeveon Clowney, who is heading into his age 32 season.

9. New Orleans Saints – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)*

It looks unlikely that Shedeur Sanders will be the top-3 pick he looked likely to be a month or so ago, but the Saints are desperate enough at the quarterback position that they might stop his slide at 9. Derek Carr is just a stopgap option and he might not even be that if he either gets shoulder surgery that jeopardizes his 2025 season or if he manages to force his way out of New Orleans, where it doesn’t seem like he wants to be. Jaxson Dart is also a possibility here, even over Sanders, and if the Saints knew they had Derek Carr as a stopgap for a year I think Dart would be the pick, but Sanders is by far the more NFL ready of the two and whichever quarterback is selected here might not have the luxury of setting and learning.

10. Chicago Bears – DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)*

The Bears could address the offensive line, which was their biggest need going into the off-season, but they don’t have an obvious spot for a rookie to start on the offensive line, having added three starting caliber offensive linemen already this off-season, and it’s unlikely they would use this pick on a player they expect to be a reserve in year one. The Bears also added edge defender Dayo Odeyingbo this off-season, but he’s a mediocre option and ideally the Bears would have at least three edge defenders they can rely on to rotate with each other, including top edge defender Montez Sweat. The Bears have several good options at this point, but Stewart is the only one they’ve worked out privately, so he may be their preferred choice.

11. San Francisco 49ers – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

The 49ers have a lot of areas they could address after significant losses this off-season, so they might just end up taking the best player available. That could easily be Will Johnson, who would also fill a big need, after the 49ers lost both Chavarius Ward and Isaac Yiadom this off-season. Johnson could start for them immediately along with top holdover Deommodore Lenoir and second year player Renaldo Green.

12. Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)*

The Cowboys really don’t have much on the depth chart opposite Ceedee Lamb, so if McMillan falls to them at 12, the Cowboys will at least strongly consider him. Of the options on the board, he makes the most sense for them at this juncture.

13. Miami Dolphins – CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)

The Dolphins lost Kendall Fuller without replacing him this off-season and are rumored to be interested in moving on from expensive veteran Jalen Ramsey this off-season as well. Even if they keep Ramsey, a cornerback could easily be in play with the 13th pick. Barron doesn’t have the tools and upside that Will Johnson has, but he’s a better football player right now and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up going earlier than Johnson. Even if he doesn’t, I don’t expect him to wait much longer for his name to be called, with cornerback being a premium position and with this year’s cornerback class being relatively weak at the top.

14. Indianapolis Colts – TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

No team targeted tight ends less often in 2024 than the Colts, who targeted tight ends just 73 targets, with no tight end catching more than 14 passes. Part of that is Anthony Richardson’s tendency to throw the ball deep to wide receivers, but a lack of talent at the tight end position is part of the problem too as well and Richardson might not be the Colts’ primary starting quarterback in 2025 anyway. Loveland would give either Richardson or Daniel Jones a talented receiving target over the middle.

15. Atlanta Falcons – DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)

The Falcons’ had the second fewest sacks in the league last season with 31 and no player topped 6 sacks, so the Falcons have a clear need for edge rush help. The Falcons signed Leonard Floyd in free agency, but he is on a one-year deal and going into his age 33 season, so that move doesn’t preclude the Falcons from using their first round pick on an edge defender.

16. Arizona Cardinals – OT Kelvin Banks (Texas)

The Cardinals addressed their defensive front in free agency and now seem likely to address their offensive line early in the draft. Starting right tackle Jonah Williams is injury prone and in a contract year, while swing tackle Kelvin Beachum is heading into his age 36 season, so the Cardinals should look to find a potential long-term starting option through the draft. Banks could start at guard for the Cardinals in 2025, before kicking to right tackle in 2026 and beyond. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)*

The Bengals’ missed the playoffs last season despite a great offensive performance because of their defensive struggles, so it seems likely that defense will be where the Bengals go with this pick. Nick Emmanwori is someone they have shown a lot of interest in and makes sense at this juncture. He’s a versatile defender who can make an impact right away.

18. Seattle Seahawks – TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)

Noah Fant has never developed into the above average starting tight end the Seahawks were hoping the former first round pick could become when they acquired him from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade. He has just one year left on his contract and the Seahawks may look to shoot higher in the draft. If Colston Loveland is still on the board at 18, it would make sense for the Seahawks to take him.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

The Buccaneers addressed a need at edge defender in free agency this off-season by signing Haason Reddick, but he is on a one-year deal and going into his age 31 season, so that signing won’t preclude the Buccaneers from taking an edge defender like Jihaad Campbell in the first round.

20. Denver Broncos – RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Head Coach Sean Payton spoke about the Broncos’ need to add playmakers at running back and tight end this off-season. They added Evan Engram in free agency to improve their tight end room, but still haven’t done anything to improve a running back room that is one of the worst in the league. Hampton has three-down potential and could be a big addition to the Broncos’ offense.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)*

The Steelers could still sign Aaron Rodgers, but, even if they do, a pick like Jaxson Dart would make sense, given that Rodgers is going into his age 42 season and will likely only be signed to a 1-year deal. Dart has a high upside and he would benefit from sitting for a year behind a veteran like Rodgers if the Steelers have that option.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)

The Chargers reunite Jim Harbaugh with one of his players from the University of Michigan and fill a big need at defensive tackle, where Poona Ford wasn’t retained this off-season. 

23. Green Bay Packers – WR Matthew Golden (Texas)*

The Packers had a solid receiving corps last season, but Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are heading into the final years of their rookie deals and it seems unlikely that both will be re-signed. Watson is also highly questionable for most of the 2025 season after a late-season ACL tear in 2024. Matthew Golden could have an instant impact with Watson out and could develop into the #1 long-term number one receiver that might not be on their roster right now, with Jayden Reed currently penciled into that role.

24. Minnesota Vikings – S Malaki Starks (Georgia)

The Vikings use three safeties together as frequently as any team in the league and need to add to that position group this off-season, with Cam Bynum signing with the Colts and Harrison Smith going into his age 36 season.

25. Houston Texans – OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

The Texans have added a bunch of offensive lineman through trade or free agency this off-season as they look to overhaul what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but all of the players they added are either on one-year deals or in the final year of their contract, so the Texans will likely look to draft an offensive lineman early as well.

26. Los Angeles Rams – CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)

The Rams have done a great job reloading their defensive front through the draft over the past two years, but their secondary still needs addressing. Even as a rookie, Hairston would have a good chance to start for this team immediately.

27. Baltimore Ravens – DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)

The Ravens have a pair of talented interior defenders in Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, but have a severe lack of depth now with Michael Pierce opting to retire this off-season. The Ravens will have several options to replace him late in the first round, including Derrick Harmon.

28. Detroit Lions – DE Mike Green (Marshall)

The Lions are getting Aidan Hutchinson back from injury in 2025, but they could use an upgrade opposite him long-term. They brought back Marcus Davenport in free agency, but he is only on a one-year deal and has missed 47 of a possible 116 games in seven seasons in the league, so his return doesn’t preclude the Lions from addressing the edge defender position in a first round where 7-8 edge defenders are likely to come off the board.

29. Washington Commanders – DE James Pearce (Tennessee)

The Commanders retained Dante Fowler in free agency and signed Deatrich Wise, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and neither will preclude the Commanders from taking an edge defender early in the draft. In a deep edge defender class, the Commanders should have their choice of a couple options late in the first round.

30. Buffalo Bills – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

The Bills signed Joey Bosa to replace Von Miller as a pass rush specialist, but he’s often injured, going into his age 30 season, and is only on a one-year deal, so the Bills could still address this position early in the draft. Ezeiruaku could contribute immediately as a rotational player and has the upside to develop into an above average starter opposite Greg Rousseau long-term. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Walter Nolen (Mississippi)

The Chiefs are pretty thin at defensive tackle other than Chris Jones, who lines up at defensive end on occasion. The Chiefs could have some options to play inside next to Jones available to them late in the first round and could easily pull the trigger on one of them, including Walter Nolen, who remains on the board in this scenario.

32. Philadelphia Eagles – G Tyler Booker (Alabama)

The strength of the Eagles last season was their offensive line, but they lost right guard Mekhi Becton in free agency this off-season. They took a flier on former first round pick bust Kenyon Green as a potential replacement and they have 2023 3rd round pick Tyler Steen as well, but neither of those two will preclude the Eagles from addressing the position early in the draft if the right player falls to them. Tyler Booker, the best pure guard prospect in the draft, could be that player if he’s still on the board at 32.

33. Cleveland Browns – QB Tyler Shough (Louisville)*

If the Browns don’t take a quarterback in the first round, Tyler Shough would make sense for them at the top of the second round.

34. New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)*

Like the Browns, the Giants passed on a quarterback in the first round and take one at the top of the second round instead.

35. Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)

Teams who take a quarterback in the first round usually use their next pick on a supporting offensive player. The Titans spent significant money on the offensive line in free agency, but still need another wide receiver, with little on the depth chart behind Calvin Ridley.

36. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)

The Jaguars signed Dyami Brown in free agency, but he was only signed on a one-year deal, so they will likely look to add another pass catcher relatively early in the draft.

37. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)

The Raiders are very thin at cornerback after losing Nate Hobbs in free agency. Thomas is a potential first round pick who is unlikely to last long on day two if he isn’t taken in the first round.

38. New England Patriots – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)

The Patriots will have to take a wide receiver at some point relatively early in the draft. If they can’t get Travis Hunter in the first round, someone like Tre Harris makes sense in the second round.

39. Chicago Bears – OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)*

The Bears added three new offensive line starters this off-season and look to have a solid starting five, but they could still add another offensive lineman through the draft, particularly one like Conerly who has the versatility to play inside and outside. Left tackle Braxton Jones and Joe Thuney are free agents next off-season.

40. New Orleans Saints – G Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

If the Saints take a quarterback in the first round, they will likely look to support him with this pick. Ryan Ramcyzk is likely never playing again due to injuries, while Trevor Penning, his replacement in 2024, was underwhelming and could potentially move to guard long-term. With an unsettled situation at both tackle and guard, the Saints should draft an offensive lineman at some point in the draft. Zabel can play both spots and, considering he could have gone in the first round, he’s a good value at this point in the draft.

41. Chicago Bears – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)

With Keenan Allen unsigned, the Bears don’t have a good third receiver on the roster and could look to the draft for one.

42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)

The Jets passed on Tyler Warren in the first round, but will have to find a tight end at some point, as they are very thin at the position now with Tyler Conklin no longer on the team.

43. San Francisco 49ers – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)*

Defensive tackle is another big position of need for the 49ers, with both Maliek Collins and Javon Hargrave leaving this off-season. Someone like TJ Sanders, who they worked out privately, would make sense in the second round.

44. Dallas Cowboys – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)*

The Cowboys have one of the thinnest running back rooms in the league and, if they don’t address this position in the first round, they will have to find a running back on day 2.

45. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)*

Shavon Revel would have been a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL midway through last season. Still, I don’t expect him to last long into day two and the Colts, who worked him out privately, are one of the teams that will know his injury situation the best. He could push for an immediate role behind Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore in an unsettled cornerback room and gives them a long-term #1 option, with Ward and Moore going into their age 29 and age 30 seasons respectively.

46. Atlanta Falcons – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)

After addressing the edge defender position in the first round, cornerback is the next logical spot for the Falcons to address, as it was a position of weakness a year ago and no major additions have been made this off-season.

47. Arizona Cardinals – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)

The Cardinals addressed their pass rush in free agency with Josh Sweat and now could turn to the draft to address their secondary. Morrison could compete for a significant role as a rookie in an unsettled position group.

48. Miami Dolphins – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)

The Dolphins lost Da’Shawn Hand and Calais Campbell in free agency, so they are now very thin at the interior defender position and really need to add talent through the draft.

49. Cincinnati Bengals – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)*

In addition to all of their defensive needs, the Bengals need help on the offensive line, particularly at guard, where they got poor play at both spots in 2024. Jonah Savaiinaea, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the second round and could be a starter as a rookie.

50. Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)

The Seahawks added Cooper Kupp as a replacement for DK Metcalf, but he is going into his age 32 season and no one else on the Seahawks’ roster right now seems to have the upside to be a long-term #2 opposite Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so the Seahawks will likely draft a wide receiver at some point.

51. Denver Broncos – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)

The Broncos could use more depth at the edge defender position, after trading away Baron Browning at the deadline last season. Burch is a versatile player who can play both on the edge and on the interior.

52. Seattle Seahawks – G Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)

The Seahawks haven’t done much of note to address their terrible offensive line. With five picks in the first three rounds of the draft, expect them to come out of the first two days of the draft with at least a couple offensive linemen, even if they don’t take one in the first.

53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)*

The Buccaneers need more interior defensive line help and Omarr Norman-Lott is someone they have worked out privately.

54. Green Bay Packers – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)

Even after signing Nate Hobbs in free agency, cornerback is still a position of need for the Packers, given Jaire Alexander’s injury history. Alexander is also an option to be traded on draft day or released as a cap casualty later this off-season.

55. Los Angeles Chargers – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)*

The tight end position is a big part of offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s offense and Will Dissly was overstretched as their top receiving tight end a year ago, so they will probably look to add another tight end through the draft. Mason Taylor, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the second round. He could make an immediate impact even as a rookie.

56. Buffalo Bills – DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)*

The Bills are expected to start DaQuan Jones in his age 34 season at the interior defender position this season, so they could use an early draft pick on a long-term replacement next to Ed Oliver.

57. Carolina Panthers – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)*

Carson Schwesinger is arguably the top off ball linebacker in a weak class and the Panthers have worked him out privately. Drafting him in the second round would make sense, given that the Panthers just let go of veteran Shaq Thompson and have an unsettled group behind veteran Josey Jewell.

58. Houston Texans – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)*

Joe Mixon is heading into his age 29 season with 1,816 career carries, so he probably won’t be able to be a good feature back for much longer. The Texans should look to add better depth behind him to provide an insurance policy and to keep Mixon fresher late in the season. Quinshon Judkins, who the Texans have worked out privately, would make sense in the second round.

59. Baltimore Ravens – WR Jack Bech (TCU)

The Ravens signed DeAndre Hopkins this off-season, but is in his age 33 season and only signed to a one-year deal, so the Ravens could still add a wide receiver relatively early in the draft.

60. Detroit Lions – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)

More depth could be added at the defensive tackle position for the Lions, with Alim McNeil coming off of a torn ACL, DJ Reader going into his age 31 season, and reserves Levi Onwuzurike and Roy Lopez only on one-year deals.

61. Washington Commanders – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)

The Commanders lost Jeremy Chinn in free agency and replaced him with Will Harris, who is better off as a reserve. Even as a second round rookie it wouldn’t be hard for Watts to become their best safety, with their other projected starter Quan Martin also being an underwhelming option.

62. Buffalo Bills – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)

The Bills signed Josh Palmer in free agency, but still lack a clear #1 receiver and could take a chance on adding a wide receiver with upside who can at least provide needed depth in the short-term.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)*

The Chiefs signed Jaylon Moore to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season because of their desperation at the left tackle position, but Moore has just 12 career starts and could easily disappoint. They will probably draft another option relatively early, especially since right tackle Jawaan Taylor, a disappointing free agent signing, could be a cap casualty next off-season.

64. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)*

The Eagles love to have a deep defensive line and lost Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham to free agency and retirement respectively this off-season. They added some short-term replacements and still have a pretty deep group, but they could add a draft pick to the mix as well.

65. New York Giants – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)*

The Giants offensive line isn’t quite as bad as it used to be, but they could still use more depth for when injuries inevitably strike. Mbow is a versatile option that they have worked out privately. 

66. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)

Running back isn’t a big need for the Chiefs, but they don’t have a clear long-term option on the roster, with Isiah Pacheco going into the final year of his rookie deal. Skattebo’s pass catching ability makes him a good fit for the Chiefs.

67. Cleveland Browns – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)

With Jedrick Wills unsigned in free agency, the Browns will need to add a new left tackle option in the draft.

68. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)*

The Raiders added Geno Smith this off-season as a stopgap quarterback, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so adding a developmental option behind him makes sense. They have had a private workout with Will Howard, a potential third round pick, who would be reuniting with his collegiate offensive coordinator Chip Kelly in Las Vegas.

69. New England Patriots – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)*

If the Patriots don’t end up with Abdul Carter in the first round, they will probably look to add defensive end depth in the mid rounds. Nic Scourton, who the Patriots have worked out privately, would make sense in the third round.

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)

The Jaguars have a talented defensive end duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but they could use more depth behind them.

71. New Orleans Saints – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)*

The Saints started their rebuild when they shipped expensive veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders for draft picks at the trade deadline this year. They will be looking for a younger, cheaper replacement for him in the draft.

72. Chicago Bears – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)

The Bears have D’Andre Swift, but will probably try to find a better complement for him to try to recreate the two back offense new head coach Ben Johnson ran successfully in Detroit.

73. New York Jets – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)*

The Jets’ #2 receiver right now is Allen Lazard, who they are looking to cut or trade. The Jets badly need more wide receiver depth behind Garrett Wilson.

74. Carolina Panthers – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)*

The Panthers could use help at the tight end position, where they didn’t have a player with more than 33 catches last season.

75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)

The 49ers need help all over their offensive line. Charles Grant could be a long-term replacement for Trent Williams, who is heading into his age 37 season. Even if he can’t play left tackle long-term, he could develop into a starter somewhere else on the 49ers’ offensive line.

76. Dallas Cowboys – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)*

The Cowboys kept Osa Odighizuwa in free agency, but 2023 1st round pick Mazi Smith has been a massive bust thus far, so the Cowboys need to add another option.

77. New England Patriots – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)*

The Patriots could use more depth at defensive tackle, particularly with Christian Barmore coming off of a lost season due to serious medical issues.

78. Arizona Cardinals – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)

Michael Wilson is an underwhelming #2 receiver opposite Marvin Harrison and the Cardinals don’t have much depth behind them, so they could add another developmental receiving option in the draft.

79. Philadelphia Eagles – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)

The Eagles traded CJ Gardner-Johnson in a cost cutting move and will likely turn to 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown as a starting safety this season, but in case he struggles, the Eagles will need another option.

80. Indianapolis Colts – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)

The Colts lost Ryan Kelly in free agency. They’re moving Tanor Bortolini from guard to center, but if they found a long-term starter at center in the draft, they could keep Bortolini at guard long-term, where he would replace fellow free agent departure Will Fries, who is currently being replaced by Matt Goncalves, who is moving to guard from right tackle, where Braden Smith is in the final year of his contract. After losing multiple starters on the offensive line this off-season, I expect them to take at least one offensive lineman early. Wilson is probably the best pure center in the draft.

81. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)*

The Bengals continue to add to their defense through the draft. Ty Robinson had a private workout with the team and would make sense in the third round.

82. Seattle Seahawks – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)

The Seahawks need multiple upgrades on the offensive line, so expect them to take at least two offensive linemen with their five picks in the first three rounds.

83. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)*

The Steelers will likely give Jaylen Warren a bigger role with Najee Harris gone, but they should add another back to rotate with him. Dylan Sampson is one of several running backs the Steelers have had a private workout with and he’s probably their best option at this juncture.

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Jaylen Reed (Penn State)

The Buccaneers didn’t bring back Jordan Whitehead this off-season and will probably add an option to replace him through the draft.

85. Denver Broncos – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)*

The Broncos filled a big need at tight end by signing Evan Engram in free agency, but he’s going into his age 31 season, so the Broncos could still add a developmental option behind him in the draft. Gunnar Helm, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the third round.

86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)

The Chargers re-signed Khalil Mack in free agency, but only to a 1-year deal and he is going into his age 34 season. Meanwhile, Joey Bosa was made a cap casualty. Young edge defender help is needed.

87. Green Bay Packers – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)

Lukas Van Ness has been disappointing as a 2023 1st round pick and the Packers should look to add more depth at the edge defender position in case he doesn’t take a step forward in year three.

88. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)

The Jaguars seem comfortable with Brenton Strange taking over as the starter for the released Evan Engram, but they could use more depth behind him.

89. Houston Texans – WR Isaiah Bond (Texas)

The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to replace Stefon Diggs this off-season, but that won’t preclude the Texans from taking a wide receiver relatively early in the draft, as Kirk is heading into a contract year and Tank Dell could potentially miss the whole 2025 season with injury.

90. Los Angeles Rams – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)

Right tackle Rob Havenstein is heading into his age 33 season and swing tackle Joe Noteboom wasn’t retained this off-season, so the Rams will likely add a developmental offensive tackle at some point in the draft.

91. Baltimore Ravens – G Tate Ratledge (Georgia)

With Patrick Mekari leaving as a free agent, the Ravens need to find an upgrade at least at one guard spot, possibly two if Daniel Faalele doesn’t take a step forward next season.

92. Seattle Seahawks – S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)

Coby Bryant took a big step forward as a starting safety in 2024, but they don’t have much depth at the position and should add another option in case Bryant regresses in 2025, which also happens to be the final year of Bryant’s rookie deal.

93. New Orleans Saints – WR Elic Ayomanor (Stanford)

The Saints signed Brandin Cooks to be their #3 receiver this off-season, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so the Saints could use a younger developmental option behind him, especially with their top-2 receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both having a history of injury.

94. Cleveland Browns – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)

The Browns don’t have much at running back behind Jerome Ford, who is best as part of a committee. The Browns could still re-sign Nick Chubb, but it’s unclear if he’ll ever be close to the running back he was before his injury.

95. Kansas City Chiefs – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)

The Chiefs lost Justin Reid in free agency and didn’t replace him, so the Chiefs will at least need to replenish their depth at the position through the draft.

96. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)

The Eagles signed Adoree Jackson as a replacement for Darius Slay, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and he is going into his age 30 season, so the Eagles should look to add a developmental option behind him in the draft.

97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Upton Stout (Western Kentucky)

The Vikings could use more depth at cornerback after some off-season losses.

98. Miami Dolphins – OT Logan Brown (Kansas)

The Dolphins have numerous pressing needs and might not be able to address their offensive line earlier than this, but their offensive line is also a pressing need, particularly in the wake of left tackle Terron Armstead’s retirement.

99. New York Giants – RB DJ Giddens (Kansas State)

The Giants have a promising young back in Tyrone Tracy, but it’s unclear if he can carry the load as a feature back. The Giants have veteran Devin Singletary as a complement, but he is overpaid for his role, so the Giants may look to add another young back in the mid rounds of the draft.

100. San Francisco 49ers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)

The 49ers missed out on adding Joey Bosa as a complement for his brother Nick Bosa, so they will probably have to look to the draft to add more talent on the edge.

101. Los Angeles Rams – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)

The Rams have a good young edge defender duo in Byron Young and Jared Verse, but their depth behind them is suspect.

102. Detroit Lions – WR Savion Williams (TCU)

Tim Patrick is expected to be the Lions’ #3 receiver in 2025, but he is going into his age 32 season with a significant injury history, so the Lions should add an insurance option through the draft.

2020 NFL Draft Redo

1. Cincinnati Bengals – QB Joe Burrow (LSU)

This draft could go down as one of the best quarterback drafts of all time, but the Bengals wouldn’t think twice about making this pick again, as Joe Burrow has single-handedly made this team relevant again after being selected #1 overall by a 2-win team, taking them to the Super Bowl in his second season and then back to the AFC Championship in his third. He’s missed the playoffs entirely in his other three seasons, twice because of injury and most recently because of a terrible defense, but Burrow is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league and should keep the Bengals in contention for years to come, as long as he stays healthy. In total, Burrow has started 69 regular season games, going 38-30-1, completing 68.6% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 140 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in those games and additionally winning five post-season games, as many as the Bengals had won in their previous 39 seasons before Burrow. 

2. Washington Redskins – QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)

While Burrow was an easy decision, this is where it gets tricky. The Redskins (now Commanders) would obviously take a quarterback here if they had the chance to do this all over again, as they originally passed on addressing the position in favor of selecting defensive end Chase Young, because they had 2019 1st round pick Dwayne Haskins, who would prove to be a bust. The Commanders would eventually find their quarterback in Jayden Daniels in the 2024 Draft, but they have the opportunity to get the game’s most important position right four years earlier in this scenario.

Jalen Hurts is obviously a strong candidate here, fresh off winning Super Bowl MVP, but he didn’t start until late in his rookie season, then was decent, but unspectacular in his second season as a starter, before breaking out in his third season, while Justin Herbert has been consistent throughout his career, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and then going on to complete 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.21 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 45 interceptions in 79 starts across his five seasons in the league, while going 41-38, despite consistent issues with the team around him.

Even if you think Hurts is the better of the two quarterbacks as of this writing, there is still a strong case to be made that, when you take the entirety of the last five seasons into account, Herbert has overall been the better of the two. He obviously hasn’t had the team success that Hurts has, but he also hasn’t had anywhere near the same team around him. In addition to benefiting from a great team around him, Hurts also benefited from not having to play right away in Philadelphia, two luxuries he wouldn’t be afforded if Washington made him the 2nd overall pick. I’ve gone back and forth on this one many times, but ultimately Herbert made more sense for the situation Washington was in five years ago.

3. Detroit Lions – WR Justin Jefferson (LSU)

The Lions could also take Hurts here, but they had Matt Stafford for another year and pretty seamlessly transitioned from the Stafford era to the Jared Goff era, so I think they would address another position here, even with great quarterback options still left on the board. This draft had a lot of great players, but I think you’d have a hard time arguing that Justin Jefferson isn’t the best non-quarterback from this draft. Arguably the league’s best receiver, Jefferson had a ridiculous 88/1400/7 slash line even as a rookie and has averaged an even more ridiculous 109/1641/9 slash line per 17 games throughout his career. He’d step in immediately as a #1 receiver for a Lions team that was led in receiving by a 30-year-old Marvin Jones in 2020.

4. New York Giants – QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)

The Giants are in a similar situation to the Commanders, as they passed on a quarterback in this draft because they took one the previous year, but would not do so in hindsight because that quarterback ended up being a bust. Daniel Jones wasn’t quite as big of a bust as Haskins, who lasted just two seasons in Washington, but if anything his selection was worse because he was just good enough for the Giants to double down on him with a big contract, rather than cutting their losses and starting over at the position, leading to them still needing a quarterback to this day. 

In hindsight, they would have to pull the trigger on Hurts if he remained on the board, even if there was some risk, bringing Hurts into a way worse situation than the one he went to in Philadelphia. Since breaking out in 2022, Hurts has completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions, while rushing for 1,995 yards and another 42 touchdowns on 472 carries (4.23 YPA). He’s had a lot of help from his supporting cast, but there is no denying his 37-10 record with six post-season victories and a Super Bowl MVP over those three seasons.

5. Miami Dolphins – QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)

The Dolphins stick with their original pick here. The majority of teams would probably take Jordan Love over Tua Tagovailoa in this scenario, but for the purposes of this re-draft, I tend to stick with the original pick if it’s close. Tagovailoa has not shown himself to be an elite quarterback, nor has he proven he can consistently stay healthy, but that didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving him a 4-year, 212.4 million dollar extension last off-season, which makes him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

After struggling for most of his first two seasons in the league, Tagovailoa has definitely shown flashes of being an elite quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 8.12 YPA, 73 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions over the past three seasons, while going 25-16, but his durability, consistently, and inability to win and perform well in big games have been a significant problem. The Dolphins giving him that massive contract has more to do with them still believing in his long-term potential than anything he has done yet.

6. Los Angeles Chargers – QB Jordan Love (Utah State)

The Chargers miss out on Justin Herbert in this re-draft, but they’re still picking high enough to get Jordan Love, who is the last of the five quarterbacks to be taken in this scenario. Love definitely benefited from spending three years on the bench behind Aaron Rodgers and would not have been ready to start right away the way Justin Herbert did, but he has arguably developed into a better quarterback in the long run. Over his past two seasons as a starter, he has completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 57 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, while going 18-14 in the regular season and taking the Packers to back-to-back playoff appearances, including a post-season win over the Cowboys in 2023.

7. Carolina Panthers – WR Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma)

Wide receiver wasn’t a pressing need for the Panthers in 2020, as both DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson topped 1000 yards that season, but Anderson fell to 519 yards in 2021 and 206 yards in 2022, while Moore was traded after the 2022 season, so Ceedee Lamb, probably the best available player remaining, still makes sense here. Lamb isn’t quite as good as Jefferson, but he’s topped 1,100 yards receiving in four straight seasons, while averaging 104/1330/8 per 17 games in his career, including a league leading 1,749 receiving yards in 2023.

8. Arizona Cardinals – OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)

The Cardinals had a solid left tackle in DJ Humphries at the time of this draft, but Wirfs would have been a massive upgrade at right tackle, while giving them insurance for the injury plagued Humphries, and ultimately moving over to the left side after Humphries was let go following the 2023 season, after missing 11 games in the previous two seasons. A right tackle for the first three seasons of his career, Wirfs seamlessly made the transition to left tackle with Tampa Bay in 2023, while finishing with PFF grades in the 80s in all five seasons in the league, across 79 total starts, since being selected 13th overall by the Buccaneers. He’s one of the best players in the league at his position and is likely the best available player remaining on the board.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah)

The Jaguars took a cornerback here originally in CJ Henderson, who wound up being a bust, getting traded to the Panthers for a third round pick midway through his second season in the league and not developing there either. Jaylon Johnson, on the other hand, has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league. It took him a few years to develop, as he finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first three seasons in the league, but that jumped to 90.1 in 2023 and remained high at 76.2 in 2024. Originally a second round pick by the Bears, Johnson was extended on a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal after being franchise tagged at the conclusion of his rookie deal last off-season and, still only going into his age 26 season, he still has a very bright future. Even with the relatively slow start to his career, he’s arguably the best available player at this point in this re-draft.

10. Cleveland Browns – OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia)

The Browns had the right idea drafting a left tackle in Jedrick Wills here, but he never developed into a consistent starter, so the Browns take another offensive tackle in this re-draft. Thomas slips a little bit from where he was originally selected, 4th overall by the Giants, but he has still been one of the better left tackles in the league when healthy, finishing with PFF grades of 78.9, 89.1, 76.1, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively. Injuries have become his biggest issue, as he has missed 18 games over the past two seasons, after missing just 5 total games in his first three seasons in the league combined, but, still only going into his age 26 season, it would not at all be a surprise if he puts his injuries behind him and continues being a high level left tackle.

11. New York Jets – S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)

The Jets still had Jamal Adams as of the 2020 draft, but he was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for two first round picks later in the off-season and went on to decline mightily in Seattle. The Jets prepared for the loss of Adams by using a third round pick in this draft on Ashtyn Davis, but knowing that Adams would be gone later in the off-season and would struggle long-term even if he was kept, the Jets could shoot higher at the position in a re-draft. McKinney was a bit inconsistent early in his career and missed significant time with injury in both 2020 (10 games missed) and 2022 (8 games missed), but he has developed into one of the best safeties in the league, finishing with PFFs grades of 87.5 and 84.8 over the past two seasons, while making all 34 starts. Still only going into his age 26 season, he should remain one of the best safeties in the league for several more years.

12. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)

The Raiders’ original pick here, Henry Riggs, wound up getting cut for off-the-field reasons midway through his second season in the league, so the Raiders take a different wide receiver in this re-draft. Higgins has had some durability issues over the past two seasons, missing five games in each of the past two seasons, but he has averaged a 80/1116/8 slash line per 17 games in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.95 and a yards per target average of 8.97. He wouldn’t have the same quarterback situation with the Raiders as he had in Cincinnati, but he would still give their passing game a big boost. A free agent this off-season after being franchise tagged last off-season, Higgins is expected to command around 30 million annually, still only going into his age 26 season.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Antoine Winfield (Minnesota)

The Buccaneers miss out on Tristan Wirfs, their original pick here, but their second round pick Antoine Winfield has developed into one of the better safeties in the league when healthy, so the Buccaneers use this pick to ensure they can keep him. Winfield disappointed in an injury plagued 2024 season, after signing a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar extension last year, but he previously had PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively and, only going into his age 27 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2025 and beyond.

14. San Francisco 49ers – WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State)

Brandon Aiyuk was originally taken with the 49ers’ other first round pick, 25th overall, but they would need to take him earlier this time around. The 49ers wouldn’t mind, as their original pick here, Javon Kinlaw, was a bust who was let go last off-season as a free agent after his 5th year option was declined. Aiyuk’s long-term outlook took a hit this season when he suffered a torn ACL early in the 2024 season, but he has averaged a 72/1061/6 slash line per 17 games, 2.04 yards per route run, and 9.65 yards per target in his career, including a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run and 12.78 yards per target in 2023, which led to the 49ers giving him a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal last off-season after franchise tagging him. Only going into his age 27 season, he still has a bright future if he can bounce back from his injury.

15. Denver Broncos – CB AJ Terrell (Clemson)

Cornerback was a big problem for the Broncos heading into the 2020 Draft. They used a third round pick on Michael Ojemudia and he immediately played 852 snaps in 16 games as a rookie (11 starts), but he finished with a 48.7 PFF grade as a rookie and only played 87 snaps the rest of his career after that. AJ Terrell would be a much better option. He has made 78 starts in five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 60.8, 82.6, 63.9, 74.6, and 69.4 respectively in those five seasons. He originally went 16th to the Falcons, who locked him up with a 4-year, 81 million dollar extension after his 4th season in the league. In this scenario, the Broncos steal him away one pick earlier.

16. Atlanta Falcons – DE Alex Highsmith (Charlotte)

The Falcons missed out on AJ Terrell, who they would have loved to have kept, but they had a desperate need for edge rush help as well. In 2020, the Falcons had the 10th fewest sacks in the league with 29, with no one surpassing 4.5 sacks and no edge rusher surpassing 3 sacks. Alex Highsmith is at his best against the run, but he has also developed into a high level pass rusher opposite TJ Watt in Pittsburgh, with 35.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 77 career games, including 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons, while receiving overall PFF grades of 78.0, 90.3, and 89.5 over those three seasons.

17. Dallas Cowboys – CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)

The Cowboys missed out on Ceedee Lamb, their original pick here, but they also made a good pick in the second round, when they took Trevon Diggs. Diggs has his issues in coverage, allowing 8.81 yards per target in his career, and he’s missed 21 games with injury over the past two seasons, but, despite the missed time, he still has 20 interceptions since entering the league, second most over that time period, including a league leading 11 in 2021. The Cowboys kept him with a 5-year, 97 million dollar extension after his third season in the league and, while his recent injuries may make them question that decision, I still think they would take him here in a re-draft.

18. Miami Dolphins – WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)

The Dolphins would eventually add Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to support Tua Tagovailoa, but back in 2020 they were led in receiving by Devante Parker (63/793/4). Jerry Jeudy didn’t have his first 1000 yard season until his fifth season in the league in 2024, but he averaged a solid 1.83 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league, despite poor quarterback play, before breaking out with a 90/1229/4 slash line (6th in the NFL in receiving yards) in 2024. He could have been more productive sooner with the Dolphins.

19. Las Vegas Raiders – DT Nnamdi Madubuike (Texas A&M)

The Raiders had a big need for defensive tackle help going into this 2020 draft and this has remained a need for years. Nnamdi Madubuike took a couple years to develop and has never been a great run defender, but he has 25 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 51 games as an interior pass rusher over the past three seasons with the Ravens, making him one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. After a 13-sack 2023 season, the Ravens franchise tagged Madubuike and extended him on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal last off-season.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

The Jaguars whiffed on this pick originally, taking edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, who had just 5 sacks in 57 games for the Jaguars. Greenard took a few years to develop, playing just 963 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league, in large part due to injury (16 games missed), but he always flashed potential even in limited action and he has broken out over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 78.2 and 80.8 and a total of 24.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 32 games. After his breakout 2023 campaign in Houston, he signed a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal with the Vikings last off-season, which proved to be a great value in his first season with his new team.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

The Eagles were led in rushing by Miles Sanders in 2020. Sanders wasn’t a bad lead back, but Jonathan Taylor would be an obvious upgrade and would have given the Eagles’ offense a Saquon Barkley type option much earlier. Taylor has missed 17 games with injury in five seasons in the league, but he has still rushed for 6,013 yards and 51 touchdowns in his career, which rank second and third respectively among running backs over that time span.

22. Minnesota Vikings – WR Michael Pittman (USC)

Michael Pittman took a year to develop, but he has averaged a 95/1038/4 slash line with 1.77 yards per route run and 7.39 yards per target in his past four seasons, including a pair of 1000+ yard seasons in 2021 and 2023. He’d obviously be a downgrade for the Vikings from Justin Jefferson, their original pick here, but he is the best remaining wide receiver for a team that had an obvious need at the position in 2020.

23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Derrick Brown (Auburn)

Derrick Brown was a tough player to slot. He was originally the 7th overall pick and had a pair of elite seasons in 2022 and 2023, excelling against the run, adding 3 sacks, 22 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as an interior pass rusher, and finishing with PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 respectively. However, he took two years to develop into that player, with PFF grades of 61.0 and 64.4 in his first two seasons in the league, and then he missed almost all of 2024 with injury. At his best, Brown is an elite run defender who can also push the pocket as a pass rusher and he’s only going into his age 27 season, so he has a good chance to be a great value at this point in the draft, but I couldn’t find a good spot for him earlier. The Chargers needed help at the defensive tackle position in 2020 and beyond, so Brown would have been a welcome addition.

24. New Orleans Saints – G Mike Onwenu (Michigan)

The Saints used this pick originally on guard Cesar Ruiz, who never really developed into a player worth this selection. Ironically, his Michigan teammate Mike Onwenu was only a 6th round pick by the Patriots originally, but he made all 16 starts as a rookie and has started 73 games in five seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, 71.5, and 65.2. He would be an upgrade for the Saints at what was a position of need back in 2020.

25. San Francisco 49ers – DE Chase Young (Ohio State)

Chase Young was a tough player to slot. The 2nd overall pick, Young won Defensive Rookie of the Year and looked like a future Defensive Player of the Year, but tore his ACL midway through his second season in the league, missed most of his third season, and overall hasn’t lived up to his potential since getting hurt. However, he hasn’t been bad overall, generally playing the run at a high level, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, and totaling 22 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 60 career games. The 49ers have been searching for a good edge defender opposite Nick Bosa for years, at one point trading for Young, but only keeping him for a half-season, before losing him to the Saints in free agency. Even with his injury issues, he makes sense for the 49ers at this juncture because of his upside.

26. Green Bay Packers – CB L’Jarius Sneed (Louisiana Tech)

Jaire Alexander had a great season for the Packers at cornerback in 2020, but the rest of their cornerback room was underwhelming and Alexander has been increasingly injury prone in recent years. L’Jarius Sneed, meanwhile, developed into a solid starting cornerback with the Chiefs, despite being a 4th round pick, starting 48 games from 2021-2023 while receiving PFF grades of 64.1, 76.1, and 71.1. That led to the cap strapped Chiefs franchise tagging him last off-season and trading him for a third round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal. Sneed missed most of 2024 with injury, but has obvious bounce back potential in his age 28 season in 2025 and would still have been a welcome addition for the Packers in 2020.

27. Seattle Seahawks – MLB Patrick Queen (LSU)

The Seahawks’ original pick here, linebacker Jordyn Brooks, was a bust who never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in four seasons in Seattle, before leaving as a free agent to the Dolphins. Many felt the Seahawks should have taken Patrick Queen instead, rather than letting him go one pick later to the Ravens, and, in hindsight, that would have been a better move. Queen took a couple years to develop, but finished the 2022 season with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,024 snaps and finished the 2023 season with a 73.1 PFF grade on 1,120 snaps, leading to him signing a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal with the Steelers last off-season. Queen regressed in his first season in Pittsburgh, but still would make sense for the Seahawks at 27 in a re-draft.

28. Baltimore Ravens – G Kevin Dotson (Louisiana)

The Ravens miss out on Patrick Queen by one pick in this scenario, but they get a much needed help at guard in Kevin Dotson, as they struggled to replace Marshal Yanda, a stud guard who retired after the 2019 season. Dotson, originally a 4th round pick, began his career as a solid starter with the Steelers, with PFF grades of 66.2, 64.2, and 65.4 with 30 total starts in his first three seasons, before breaking out with PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 across 30 total starts over the past two seasons after being traded to the Rams, who kept him as a free agent on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal last off-season.

29. Tennessee Titans – G Robert Hunt (Louisiana)

The Titans completely whiffed on their original pick here Isaiah Wilson, who they were hoping could replace Jack Conklin, a free agent departure during the 2020 off-season. Instead, Wilson never played a snap for the team for disciplinary reasons, making him an all-time bust. Robert Hunt has played both right tackle and guard in his career and could immediately step in as the replacement for Conklin, before potentially moving inside to guard when Rodger Saffold left after the 2021 season. In five years in the league, Hunt has made 71 starts, while receiving PFF grades in the 60s and 70s in all five seasons in the league, after being selected in the second round by the Dolphins. The only reason the Dolphins didn’t keep him as a free agent last off-season was cap concerns, as he left for Carolina on a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal.

30. Miami Dolphins – S Grant Delpit (LSU)

The Dolphins had needs all over the field going into the 2020 NFL Draft and Grant Delpit could have been a useful player for them. He missed his entire rookie season with injury after being selected by the Browns in the second round of this draft, but he returned to develop into a solid starter, with PFF grades of 63.3, 63.6, 70.0, and 65.2 over the past four seasons respectively, while only missing another seven total games with injury. The Browns kept him as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal.

31. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Zach Baun (Wisconsin)

Zach Baun was another tough player to slot, spending the first four years of his career as a reserve (664 total defensive snaps) in New Orleans, before breaking out as an All-Pro in his fifth season in the league in Philadelphia, finishing the 2024 season with a 90.1 PFF grade on 938 snaps. The Vikings, who needed another linebacker inside next to Eric Kendricks in 2020, take a chance on him and hope he can become at least a solid starter earlier with more opportunity.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Darnell Mooney (Tulane)

The talent in this draft is running out fast, but Darnell Mooney is a solid starting receiver, and Chiefs could have used another receiver in 2020 and 2021 opposite Tyreek Hill, who they eventually traded after the 2021 season and never adequately replaced. Mooney would obviously be a downgrade from Hill, but could be a useful player for a team that has had consistent problems in the receiving corps in recent years. Originally drafted by the Chicago Bears, with whom his production was kept down by inconsistent quarterback play (60/735/3 slash line per 17 games), Mooney signed with the Falcons on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal last off-season and had a 64/992/5 slash line in 16 games on a much better passing offense. It’s not hard to imagine Mooney exceeding that in Kansas City’s offense after Hill was traded.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Championship Pick

Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)

With the Lions losing in their first playoff game last week, the Chiefs have the best record in the league at 16-2 and one of those two losses was a meaningless week 18 game when they didn’t play their starters with the one seed already locked up. However, the Chiefs won a lot of close games, with just six wins by more than seven points and a 10-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. The Bills have a worse record than the Chiefs, but still have much better numbers in terms of yards per play differential (+0.42 vs. -0.08) and comparable numbers in terms of first down rate differential (1.21% vs. 1.29%), when you exclude both teams’ meaningless week 18 games.

Typically first down rate differential and yards per play differential are significantly more predictive than win/loss record and, along with that, a teams’ record in one-score games is not predictive, but the Chiefs are now 50-19 in one-score games when Patrick Mahomes starts, which is a pretty big sample size. For comparison, the Bills are just 22-20 in one-score games with Josh Allen since his breakout season in 2020, as good as Allen has been over that time period. 

The gap between these two teams in terms of the aforementioned metrics might suggest this is not necessarily going to be a close game, but my roster rankings have these two teams about equal. The Chiefs are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. 

The Chiefs have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. As a result, they seem to have gotten better as the year has gone on, with four of their six wins by more than seven points this season coming in their last four meaningful games. The Bills, on the other hand, were one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season, but now enter this AFC Championship game missing top safety Taylor Rapp and potentially top cornerback Christian Benford, who has yet to clear the concussion protocol.

With this likely to be a close game, the Chiefs seem like the right side. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given their tendency to win close games, the Chiefs have been great this season against the spread when not big favorites, going 7-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of six points or fewer (excluding week 18), as opposed to 0-7-1 when favored by more than six points. Going back to Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 19-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in games started by Mahomes, including a 18-8 straight up record, making them close to an automatic bet in that situation, especially in the playoffs, when they are 7-0 ATS. My calculated line of Chiefs -2.5 doesn’t give us much value with the Chiefs at -1.5, but as long as this game is expected to be close, I like the Chiefs chances of pulling out the victory. This is only a small bet for now, but I would probably increase it if Benford winds up not playing.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .529, second best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .467 for the Bills, third worst among playoff qualifiers. Both teams blew out inferior opponents in the first round of the post-season, but in the regular season, the Ravens had much more success against playoff qualifiers than the Bills did, as the Bills played just five playoff qualifiers, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and went just 2-3 with a -15 point differential in those games, while the Ravens played ten playoff qualifiers, most among playoff qualifiers, and went 7-3 with +112 point differential, which was best among playoff qualifiers by a wide margin.

Despite the much tougher schedule, the Ravens finished the regular season with significantly better numbers in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing first in both categories by a wide margin at +1.66 and +6.36% respectively (second place in both metrics was +0.99 and +4.70% respectively). The Bills, on the other hand, finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of +0.55 and a first down rate differential of 1.50%, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did have a significantly better turnover margin (+24 vs. +6), but turnover margins are not very predictive. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game in the regular season have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season and have a post-season record of just 23-24.

The Ravens also got significantly better down the stretch once they benched struggling safety Marcus Williams after week 10. From week 11 to week 18, their defense ranked first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense wasn’t quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens had a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% over that stretch, both best in the league.

This spread seems to take some of this into account, favoring the Ravens by 1 point on the road, despite the Bills having a better record, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the visitors. My biggest concern with betting the Ravens is that they will likely be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers for the second straight week due to injury, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league in the regular season, but even with his absence the Ravens still have a 4-point edge over the Bills in my roster rankings, so I think the Ravens are still bettable even without Flowers, albeit for a smaller play than if Flowers was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium