Month: January 2026

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st in DVOA (+41.3%), first down rate differential (+6.04%), and yards per play differential (+1.34), while the Rams rank 2nd in those two metrics at +39.9%, +5.14%, and +0.85 respectively. On the other hand, both my roster rankings and PFF’s team rankings have the Rams first and the Seahawks second. When these two teams met twice earlier this season, their matchups were about as even as you’d expect, with the Rams winning the first matchup by two and the Seahawks winning the second matchup in overtime by one. Both matchups legitimately could have gone either way. 

With that in mind, I am drawn to taking the points, even if there are only 2.5 of them. A 2.5-point underdog would have covered both of the previous two matchups. The Seahawks are at home, but I am not sure how much that matters because the Rams have had limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles and, as a result, are 47-40 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016, outperforming the spread by an average of 1.1 points per game. 

The Rams are also healthier than they were in the game they lost to the Seahawks a few weeks ago. The Seahawks were without wide receiver Davante Adams and top safety Quentin Lake in that game, while their best offensive lineman, right guard Kevin Dotson, left the game with injuries, part of the reason why the Rams blew a big lead late. In this game, all three will play and should be close to 100%, after all three also played last week. 

The Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross this time around, after he did not play a few weeks ago, but they also will be without talented running back Zach Charbonnet and, overall, the Rams are in a comparatively better injury position than the Seahawks were in their previous matchup. Despite that, this line is 2.5 this time around, rather than 1.5, which the Seahawks didn’t even cover. I think the money line is worth a bet at the very least at +130, but I would probably need this line to become a full field goal to bet the spread.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick

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New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)

The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and needs surgery that will end his season. In his absence, the Broncos will turn to backup Jarrett Stidham in one of the biggest games of the season. In seven seasons in the league, Stidham has started four games, all of which came at the end of the season for a team that was already eliminated, and the former fourth round pick has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 career pass attempts.

With Nix out and Stidham in, the Broncos are 5.5-point home underdogs this week and the public is heavily on the Patriots, with about 75% of the money on them. That seems like an overreaction though, as the early line was Denver -1.5. That means this line has shifted 7 points for Nix’s absence, which is a massive amount for a non-elite quarterback. Normally injuries to quarterbacks of Nix’s caliber trigger about a 4-5 point line movement. 

My calculated line has the Patriots favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value at +5.5. The Broncos have never been an offensive team, ranking 20th in first down rate and 15th in yards per play at 29.92% and 5.32 respectively, while their defense ranks 4th in first down rate allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 27.64% and 4.55 respectively. The Patriots have just 4.91 yards per play and a 24.81% first down rate in two home post-season games against tough defenses (Chargers and Texans) and figure to struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the road. I still think the Patriots will win, but in what should be a low scoring game, I like getting 5.5 points with the home team. I would bet the Broncos at anything 4.5 or higher.

New England Patriots 16 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game is in Denver rather than Buffalo, which matters somewhat, but not nearly enough for a 9.5-point line movement. It would also seem the Broncos are better this year than last year, going from 10-7 to 14-3, while the Bills are worse, going from 13-4 to 12-5. However, that might not be as true as it seems.

The Bills have fallen from a +157 point differential in 2024 to a +116 point differential this season, but, overall, their team is very similar to a year ago. Of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Broncos, at least 15 and up to 18 of 22 are expected to play in this game, depending on the final injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually had a better point differential last season (+114) compared to this season (+90), as the biggest reason for their improved record this season is that they went from 1-6 in one-score games to 9-2. Meanwhile, of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Bills, 16 of 22 are expected to play in this game.

Two of the six who won’t play for the Broncos this season that played last year are center Luke Wattenburg and safety Brandon Jones, who both got hurt down the stretch this season and could prove to be big absences in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills are relatively healthy. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed 5 games this season, right tackle Spencer Brown missed 3, interior defender Daquan Jones missed 5, and fellow interior defender Ed Oliver missed 15, but only Oliver is at risk of missing this game. At the very least, I like betting on the money line this week, as the Bills should be favored in this game, but I may end up betting on the spread as well, depending on the final injury report.

Update: Ed Oliver is playing, which is enough for me to increase this to a medium confidence bet.

Buffalo Bills 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6)

These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score in just 4 of their 12 wins and going 8-4 in one score games, the Rams won by multiple scores in 8 of their 13 and went just 5-5 in one score games. As a result of that, the Rams enter this game with a +175 point differential, including the first round of the playoffs, while the Bears have just a +30 point differential.

The difference between these two teams is even bigger than point differential shows though, as the Bears needed a league leading +20 turnover margin to get to that point differential, while the Rams have a more modest +12 turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams that had great turnover margins in the regular season tend to not be able to keep that up in the post-season. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season.

In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive, the Rams have a huge edge with a +5.49% first down rate differential, as opposed to -1.00% for the Bears, and a +0.95 yards per play differential, as opposed to -0.30 for the Bears. The Rams also played a tougher schedule, playing five games against remaining playoff teams, as opposed to just one for the Bears, and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Rams rank first and have about a 10-point edge over the 19th ranked Bears.

The Rams have been underwhelming compared to how they barely earlier this season in recent weeks, but they haven’t been fully healthy with left tackle Alaric Jackson (1 game missed), right guard Kevin Dotson (3 games missed), safety Quentin Lake (7 games missed), and wide receiver Davante Adams (3 games missed) all missing time in recent weeks, after the Rams had minimal injuries early in the season. However, all four of those players are expected to play this week, with only Dotson questionable, and, overall, the Rams are very healthy for this point in the season. 

The Bears, on the other hand, continue to be plagued by injuries as they have been all season. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed), wide receiver Rome Odunze (5 games missed), and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed) and Kyler Gordon (14 games missed) all have returned in recent weeks from significant absences, but linebacker TJ Edwards and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo went down for the season in last week’s win over the Packers, injuries that will likely hurt them against a much tougher opponent this week. 

This line does suggest the Rams are the significantly better team, favoring them by 4 points on the road, but I don’t think this line is high enough, especially when considering that the Rams have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, are 47-39 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but I will increase this bet if I get confirmation that Kevin Dotson will play and this line doesn’t move significantly.

Update: Dotson is playing. I am upgrading this to a high confidence pick.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4

Confidence: High

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

This is the third time these two divisional opponents have met this season. The 49ers opened the season with a 17-13 win in Seattle week 1, in which the 49ers won the first down rate battle by 0.73 and the yards per play battle by 5.51%. In week 18, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in San Francisco 13-3, in a game in which the Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 11.90% and the yards per play battle by 1.27. Common sense would suggest that the more recent of the two matchups between these teams holds more predictive value and it is true that when two teams that split the season series meet for a third time in the post-season the team who won the more recent matchup tends to win more often than not, but maybe not as often as you would think, as teams are just 14-9 in that spot and just 11-12 ATS.

That alone isn’t a reason to pick the 49ers to cover, but I think this spread is a little inflated based on the recent matchup between these two teams, with the Seahawks favored by 7 points, after being favored by 2.5 points week 18. This game is in Seattle rather than San Francisco, but that much of a little movement is more than just the location change. The 49ers won’t have George Kittle for this game and the Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, but the 49ers also get back left tackle Trent Williams, who is much better than Cross and more important to this offense than Kittle, and Kittle was not 100% in the previous matchup either. On top of that, the 49ers are likely to get back wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, though the loss of starting safety Ji’Ayir Brown does hurt them. Overall, I have this line calculated at Seattle -6, so we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not nearly enough for them to be worth betting.

Seattle Seahawks 20 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +7

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3)

The Patriots enter this game with significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.36% vs. +1.93%) and yards per play differential (+1.10 vs. +0.48) compared to the Texans, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records. The Texans have faced a much tougher schedule, but, even when schedule is taken into account, the Patriots have about a 3-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. 

A big reason for that is schedule adjusted efficiency weights offensive performance higher than defensive performance, because offensive performance tends to be more consistent week-to-week. The Texans have a big edge on defense, about 5.5 points, but the Patriots have an even bigger edge on offense, about 7 points, and that tends to be more predictive of future winning. On top of that, the Texans have the biggest injury in this game, as their top wide receiver Nico Collins is expected to be out due to concussion, while the Patriots are close to fully healthy. Given all of that, this line is a little short, favoring the Patriots at home by only 3 points. My calculated line is Houston -5.5. There isn’t quite enough line value here for the Patriots to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 21 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

The 49ers were statistically the better of these two teams in the regular season. While the Eagles had the edge in yards per play differential, ranking 10th at +0.29 while the 49ers ranked 18th at -0.11, the 49ers had a bigger edge in first down rate differential, ranking 8th at +1.78%, as opposed to 17th at +0.20% for the Eagles, and first down rate differential is more predictive than yards per play differential. 

The Eagles were a much better defensive team, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, as opposed to 27th for the 49ers, but the 49ers were a much better offensive team, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as opposed to 22nd for the Eagles, and offensive efficiency tends to be much more predictive than defensive efficiency. In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offensive efficiency higher than defensive efficiency, the 49ers have a 3.7-point edge, suggesting this line should favor the visiting 49ers by about 1.5.

Unfortunately, my roster rankings tell a different story, primarily because these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise heading into the post-season. The Eagles’ offense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of right tackle Lane Johnson from a 7-game absence and the Eagles’ defense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of interior defender Jalen Carter from a 6-game absence and the mid-season trade addition of edge defender Jaelan Phillips. On the other hand, the 49ers offense looks likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, while their defense, which has already been without its two best players, edge defender Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, since weeks 3 and 6 respectively, now is expected to be without their next two best linebackers Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune.

That being said, I am still picking the 49ers in this game with the Eagles being 4.5-point favorites because the Eagles have played a lot of close games. Their only multi-score wins this season have come against the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders, who were three of the worst teams in the league. In six matchups with playoff qualifiers, they won by more than 4.5 twice and one of those involved a last second return of a blocked field goal to push the margin of victory from 1 to 7. So in six tries, the Eagles would have had a legitimate cover of a 4.5-point spread just once against playoff caliber teams. Even with the current injury situations of these two teams taken into account, my calculated line is just Philadelphia -2.5. I am not betting on the 49ers for now, but if we get good news on some of the 49ers’ currently questionable players and/or this line moves up when players are ruled out, I could end up betting on the 49ers.

Update: Trent Williams returned to practice today, giving him at least a chance to play this week. Despite that, this line has moved to up +6. I am going to lock in a bet on the 49ers at that number.

Update: I am glad I locked this in at +6 while I could because not only is Williams active, but the Eagles will surprisingly be without Lane Johnson. I am not able to increase this bet at +6, but I am adding a money line play because you can still get the 49ers at more than 2:1 underdogs to win straight up.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +210

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)

The big knock against the Patriots is their weak schedule and it’s a fair point, as they have faced one of the weakest schedules in NFL history, including just three games against teams with a winning record. However, the Patriots dominated their weak schedule, finishing 2nd in yards per play differential (+1.02), 3rd in first down rate differential (+3.44%), and 3rd in point differential (+170). Even when their schedule is taken into account, the Patriots finished 4th in overall efficiency at +4.77, about 4 points above their opponents this week, the Los Angeles Chargers.

With this line favoring the Patriots by 3.5, you would think the Patriots’ 4-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency would mean the Patriots should be the right side at home, but the Chargers have a couple trends working in their favor. For one, the Chargers have next to no homefield advantage and, as a result, are 42-34 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2017. On top of that, quarterbacks who are home favorites in the first playoff start of their career, like New England’s Drake Maye, are just 6-16 ATS since 2002. That’s not enough for the Chargers to be bettable, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at +3.5.

New England Patriots 27 Los Angeles Chargers 24

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3.5

Confidence: Low