Pick of the Week
NE 34 (-10.5) MIA 13
High Confidence Picks
HOU 20 IND 16 (+10.5)
JAX 30 (-12.5) TEN 10
Medium Confidence Picks
CIN 28 (-7.5) CLE 17
Low Confidence Picks
BUF 23 (-7.5) NYJ 13
LAR 27 (-7.5) ARZ 17
PHI 24 (-3.5) WAS 17
CHI 28 DET 27 (+3)
BAL 23 PIT 20 (+3.5)
KC 20 LV 17 (+5.5)
DEN 20 LAC 10 (+13)
MIN 23 GB 17 (+8)
ATL 20 NO 17 (+3.5)
No Confidence Picks
DAL 31 (-3.5) NYG 27
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to injury, but he will get tight end George Kittle back after he missed his sixth game of the season due to injury last week. As a result of their recent winning streak, the public seems to not understand why the Seahawks are favored by a point on the road in this game, betting on the 49ers heavily. The Seahawks are a big step up from the teams they have played on their winning streak though, as they rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+5.55%) and 1st in yards per play differential (+1.34).
The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 7th in first down rate differential (2.35%) and 18th in yards per play differential (-0.07). Part of that is due to the injuries the 49ers have had this season and they are overall healthier than they have been, but my roster rankings still suggest the oddsmakers are right to favor the visitor in this game and, if anything, this line is a little short, with my calculated line at -2.5. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 24
Pick against the spread: Seattle -1
Confidence: Low
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
I have had a lot of success betting against the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They started the season 5-1, but were never as good as their record suggested, with four of those five wins coming by three points or fewer. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 2-8 with only one ATS cover in their last ten games, including eight straight non-covers. They still are alive for a playoff spot, but only because they play in the weakest division in the NFL.
Unfortunately, we’re not really getting good line value going against the Buccaneers anymore, as their record now largely lines up with where they rank in first down rate differential (20th at -0.91%) and yards per play differential (28th at -0.62). The Buccaneers are also starting to get healthier. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka are clearly playing at less than 100%, while starting cornerback Jamel Dean joins fellow starting cornerback Zyon McCollum on the sidelines this week, but left tackle Tristan Wirfs (5 games missed), right tackle Luke Goedeke (6 games missed), running back Bucky Irving (7 games missed), and wide receivers Mike Evans (9 games missed), Chris Godwin (8 games missed), and Jalen McMillan (13 games missed) have all returned from multigame absences.
On top of that, the Buccaneers’ opponents this week, the Carolina Panthers, have been much worse in yards per play differential (26th at -0.57) and first down rate differential (26th at -1.89%) than their record would suggest. As evidence of how the public perception of the Buccaneers have shifted in just the past two weeks, the Buccaneers were 3-point road favorites in Carolina two weeks ago, which translates to about 7-point home favorites, but this week in this rematch they are still just 3-point favorites at home. That line is right where I have it calculated, so we aren’t getting any value with either side. I am taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes only because they are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 straight up as underdogs off of a loss this season, but this is a small sample size and could prove to not mean anything, so this is a no confidence pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 20
Pick against the spread: Carolina +3
Confidence: None
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