Pick of the Week
LAR 27 (+1.5) SEA 23 Upset Pick +105
Low Confidence Picks
No Confidence Picks
Sunday/Monday picks to be posted on Friday
Author: stevenlourie
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)
The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington.
All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19
Pick against the spread: Washington +7
Confidence: Low
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
A couple weeks ago, I bet on the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and they covered, but a lot has changed in the past couple weeks. For one, while the Packers did cover in that game, it was closer than I would have liked, as the Packers needed a late game interception to seal a 7-point victory. The Bears then followed that game up by playing arguably their most impressive game of the season, dominating the Browns by a score of 31-3. The Browns are obviously not a tough opponent, but it was by far the biggest margin of victory that the Bears had in any of their games, as they previously had a lack of blowout victories, despite an overall relatively weak schedule.
Meanwhile, the Packers lost in Denver last week and, more importantly, they had several key players suffer major injuries. Their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is out for the season, while 10 other players are listed questionable this week on their injury report. Most notably, their top running back Josh Jacobs, their best offensive lineman Zach Tom, and talented starting safety Evan Williams did not practice all week and are likely on the wrong side of questionable.
The Bears are missing Luther Burden, who was their leading receiver in the first matchup, but they could be getting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds back from a 4-game absence and, even if they don’t, they obviously are in a much better injury position than the Packers are, relative to a couple weeks ago. Additionally, this game is obviously in Chicago, whereas the previous matchup was in Green Bay, where the Packers have a big advantage late in the season. In week 10 or later, the Packers are 22-11 ATS at home since head coach Matt LaFleur’s first season in 2019, but they do not have the same advantage on the road.
None of this is to say I want to bet the Bears this week. The Packers still have significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.31% vs. -0.26%) and yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. -0.36). However, despite that, I would take them on this even line for pick ‘em purposes, given the current injury state of both teams. Depending on the final inactives and where this line ends up, I may change this pick, but, for now, the Bears are my pick.
Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23
Pick against the spread: Chicago PK
Confidence: None
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs. +1.23, but first down rate differential is more predictive. The Rams have also faced a tougher schedule overall and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights first down rate differential higher than yards per play differential, the Rams have about a 4 point edge over the Seahawks.
The Rams are on the road in this game, but they have limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, have consistently outperformed the spread on the road since relocating in 2017, going 46-37 with a +1.4 per game differential against the spread. I like the Rams for at least a small bet in this game, with the Rams just needing to win to cover the spread. Depending on whether or not questionable players play (wide receiver Davante Adams and interior defender Braden Fiske for the Rams, and left tackle Charles Cross for the Seahawks), I would consider increasing this bet.
Update: Charles Cross has been ruled out for the Seahawks, which is a huge loss for their offense. Despite that, this line has shifted to +1.5. I like the money line more than the spread, but this is a high confidence pick either way. Davante Adams is likely to be out for the Rams, but I was being conservative with my original pick and factoring his absence into the equation and not Cross’ absence. I am also considering this for Pick of the Week.
Final Update: After further consideration of this weekend’s games, this is my Pick of the Week.
Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
2025 Week 15 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week
PHI 20 LV 13 (+11.5)
High Confidence Picks
CIN 30 (+3) BAL 27 Upset Pick +130
NO 23 (+3) CAR 20 Upset Pick +130
SEA 26 IND 17 (+14)
HOU 20 ARZ 13 (+10.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
CHI 22 CLE 17 (+7.5)
SF 28 (-12) TEN 13
Low Confidence Picks
JAX 24 (-13) NYJ 9
LAR 34 (-5.5) DET 27
PIT 27 (-3) MIA 23
KC 24 LAC 20 (+6)
No Confidence Picks
BUF 24 NE 23 (+1.5)
NYG 23 (-2.5) WAS 20
DAL 26 MIN 21 (+6.5)
GB 24 DEN 23 (+2.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 15 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
The Buccaneers are 7-6, but they rank 27th in yards per play differential (-0.64) and 23rd in first down rate differential (-1.88%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their record is largely the result of going 5-0 in games decided by 3 points or fewer and they have just two wins by more than 3 points, which is relevant, with this line at 4.5. The Falcons are only 4-9 and might seem like the kind of team that the Buccaneers can beat by more than 5 points, but they have been much better than their record in yards per play differential, ranking 11th at +0.21, and first down rate play differential, ranking 14th at +0.31%. The Falcons are worth a bet and, if the line stays around the same and either left tackle Tristan Wirfs or wide receiver Mike Evans do not return for the Buccaneers, I would make this an even bigger bet.
Early Locked Bets: NO +3, CIN +3, LV +11.5
Update: Evans and Wirfs are playing, but Evans may be on a pitch count and the Buccaneers are also missing tight end Cade Otton and safety Tykee Smith. Despite that, this line has moved up to 6. I am upping this to a high confidence bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Atlanta Falcons 23
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6
Confidence: High
NFL Pick Results
2025
Total Against the Spread: 107-97-4 (52.45%)
Pick of the Week: 7-7 (50.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 16-14 (53.33%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 28-21-1 (57.14%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 51-42-1 (54.84%)
Low Confidence Picks: 36-30-3 (54.55%)
No Confidence Picks: 20-25 (44.44%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-13 (51.85%)
2024
Total Against the Spread: 157-122-6 (56.27%)
Pick of the Week: 9-9 (50.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 17-9-2 (65.38%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 42-21-2 (66.67%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 68-39-4 (63.55%)
Low Confidence Picks: 52-46-2 (53.06%)
No Confidence Picks: 37-37 (50.00%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 10-19 (34.48%)
2023
Total Against the Spread: 139-136-10 (50.55%)
Pick of the Week: 8-8-2 (50.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 11-7-2 (61.11%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 44-31-1 (58.67%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 63-46-5 (57.80%)
Low Confidence Picks: 35-51-2 (40.70%)
No Confidence Picks: 41-39-3 (51.25%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-19 (50.00%)
2022
Total Against the Spread: 140-137-7 (50.54%)
Pick of the Week: 7-10-1 (41.18%)
High Confidence Picks: 14-7-1 (66.67%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 29-30-2 (49.15%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 50-47-4 (51.55%)
Low Confidence Picks: 52-52 (50.00%)
No Confidence Picks: 38-38-3 (50.00%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 24-23 (51.06%)
2021
Total Against the Spread: 146-135-4 (51.96%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6-1 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 15-16-1 (48.39%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 43-36 (54.43%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 69-58-2 (54.33%)
Low Confidence Picks: 50-48 (51.02%)
No Confidence Picks: 27-29-2 (48.21%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-19 (42.42%)
2020
Total Against the Spread: 138-127-4 (52.08%)
Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)
High Confidence Picks: 20-14 (58.82%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 40-36-1 (52.63%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-56-2 (55.56%)
Low Confidence Picks: 49-39 (55.68%)
No Confidence Picks: 19-32-2 (37.25%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-18 (51.35%)
2019
Total Against the Spread: 134-125-8 (51.74%)
Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (80.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 20-11-1 (64.52%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-2 (49.30%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 67-50-5 (57.26%)
Low Confidence Picks: 35-40-1 (46.67%)
No Confidence Picks: 32-35-2 (47.76%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 22-21 (51.16%)
2018
Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (60.16%)
Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)
High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.76%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.29%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (61.02%)
Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.56%)
No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (62.67%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.52%)
2017
Total Against the Spread: 139-120-8 (53.67%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (65.63%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 33-34-1 (49.25%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-51-4 (56.03%)
Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.66%)
No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)
2016
Total Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.58%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 12-17-2 (41.38%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 42-26-4 (61.76%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (57.02%)
Low Confidence Picks: 34-40-2 (45.95%)
No Confidence Picks: 31-38-2 (44.93%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)
2015
Total Against the Spread: 124-138-5 (47.33%)
Pick of the Week: 9-8 (52.94%)
High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-1 (49.30%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 58-55-1 (51.33%)
Low Confidence Picks: 36-45-2 (44.44%)
No Confidence Picks: 30-38-2 (44.12%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-30 (34.78%)
2014
Total Against the Spread: 150-113-4 (57.03%)
Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 (56.25%)
High Confidence Picks: 9-11 (45.00%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 57-31 (64.77%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 75-49-1 (60.48%)
Low Confidence Picks: 36-32-2 (52.94%)
No Confidence Picks: 39-32-1 (54.93%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)
2013
Total Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (57.36%)
Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)
High Confidence Picks: 25-10-1 (71.43%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 32-26 (55.17%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 67-42-2 (61.47%)
Low Confidence Picks: 39-28-3 (58.21%)
No Confidence Picks: 42-40-4 (51.22%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 27-31 (46.55%)
All-Time (Since 2013)
Total Against the Spread: 1806-1589-90 (53.20%)
Pick of the Week: 124-88-10 (58.49%)
High Confidence Picks: 215-151-15 (58.74%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 501-391-16 (56.17%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 840-630-41 (57.14%)
Low Confidence Picks: 533-517-22 (50.76%)
No Confidence Picks: 433-442-27 (49.49%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 254-285-1 (47.12%)
2025 Week 14 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week
LAR 34 (-8) ARZ 17
High Confidence Picks
GB 31 (-6.5) CHI 20
BUF 34 CIN 31 (+6.5)
TB 23 NO 20 (+8.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
IND 23 (-1.5) JAX 20
LAC 20 (+2.5) PHI 17 Upset Pick +120
Low Confidence Picks
MIN 24 (+1.5) WAS 23 Upset Pick +105
SEA 25 ATL 20 (+7)
DEN 20 LV 13 (+8.5)
MIA 24 NYJ 23 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
KC 21 (-3.5) HOU 16
CLE 14 (-3.5) TEN 9
BAL 22 PIT 17 (+6)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2025 Week 14 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) at Detroit Lions (7-5)
The Cowboys started the season 3-5-1, but they have won their last three games since their bye week in impressive fashion, blowing out the Raiders and then pulling upsets over the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have had an explosive offense all season, ranking 3rd in both yards per play and in first down rate on the season, while their defense, which was a huge problem before the bye, has been significantly better since adding Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson via trade and getting safety Donovan Wilson, safety Malik Hooker, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, and cornerback Shavon Revel back from injury.
Expecting the Cowboys’ big turnaround on defense, I have made the Cowboys my Pick of the Week in each of the past three weeks. Unfortunately, the secret is now out that they are much better than they were earlier in the season, so we aren’t getting as much line value with them as we used to, but I think there is still a little bit more value to be had with them. This week, they are 3-point underdogs in Detroit against a Lions team that is going in the opposite direction, losing 4 of their last 7 after a 4-1 start, in large part due to injuries, particularly tight end Sam LaPorta, guard Christian Mahogany, and safety Kerby Joseph, a trio of talented starters. The Lions could also be without top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, starting center Graham Glasgow, and fill-in guard Kayode Awosika this week, as all three are legitimately questionable.
That being said, I don’t think the Cowboys are quite worth betting, mostly due to the Lions’ history after a loss in the Dan Campbell era, as they are 22-10 ATS in that spot since he took over in 2021, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.9 points or game, including a 3-1 ATS record off of a loss this season. The Cowboys are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but that strong trend working against them is enough to deter me from betting on them.
Update: This line has increased to 3.5. That is probably due to optimism that Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing, but he will undoubtedly be limited if he does play and I already factored in him playing at less than 100% into my calculated line, so that doesn’t change anything for me. I am a lot more comfortable betting the Cowboys at +3.5 than +3 and if St. Brown happens to not play this line will look like a steal. I am putting a small play on the Cowboys for now and would increase it depending on final inactives and/or where this line ends up.
Detroit Lions 28 Dallas Cowboys 27
Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5
Confidence: Medium
2025 Week 13 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week
DAL 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +140
High Confidence Picks
GB 24 (+3) DET 20 Upset Pick +125
Medium Confidence Picks
NA
Low Confidence Picks
IND 19 (-3) HOU 13
SF 24 CLE 20 (+5.5)
ATL 23 (-2.5) NYJ 20
BUF 23 PIT 21 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
SEA 21 (-11.5) MIN 9
MIA 28 NO 24 (+5.5)
JAX 26 TEN 20 (+6.5)
TB 24 ARZ 20 (+4.5)
DEN 26 (-5.5) WAS 20
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