High Confidence Picks
PIT 19 (+3.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +150
No Confidence Picks
TBD
PHI/SF
LAC/NE
Author: stevenlourie
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
The Jaguars started the season 4-1, but they had a league leading +10 turnover margin in those games, which is very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis, so their hot start looked like a fluke. Sure enough, the Jaguars saw their turnover luck stop and had a +0 turnover margin in their next four games, in which they went 1-3, with their only win coming by one point in overtime to the Raiders, making their early season hot start look like the fluke that their early turnover luck suggested it was. However, the Jaguars then won their final eight games of the season from that point on and, more importantly, they did that despite only a +3 turnover margin in those games.
The reasons for the Jaguars second half turnaround are complex, but there are some obvious culprits. For one, they got linebacker Devin Lloyd and tight end Brenton Strange back from injury. Strange missed five games in the middle of the season, including all four games in their mid-season 1-3 stretch. In fact, the Jaguars are 11-1 in games in which Strange plays this season. Likewise, Lloyd missed two of the four games during the Jaguars’ mid-season 1-3 stretch and the Jaguars are 12-3 when he plays this season.
The Jaguars also discovered hidden gems on their roster down the stretch. On defense, safety Antonio Johnson, who finished with a 87.4 PFF grade, played 583 snaps in the Jaguars’ final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 77 snaps in the first six games of the season. Jarrian Jones finished as the Jaguars’ best graded cornerback on PFF with a 78.4 PFF grade and he played 440 snaps in the Jaguars’ final ten games, as opposed to 77 in their first seven games.
On offense, Cole Van Lanen was the Jaguars’ highest graded offensive lineman on PFF with a 79.3 grade and he started the final eleven games of the season, after playing just 25 snaps in the first six games of the season. Parker Washington was the Jaguars’ leading receiver and highest graded wide receiver in terms of PFF grade at 79.9 and he played 490 snaps in the final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 182 in the first six games. Additionally, the Jaguars traded for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline and proceeded to go 8-1 after acquiring him. Between Johnson, Jones, Van Lanen, Washington, Meyers, Strange, and Lloyd, seven of the Jaguars’ most important players in the second half of the season all either missed time with injury, weren’t on the roster, or were reserves in the first half of the season.
On top of all of this, the Jaguars whole roster just seemed to play better down the stretch in the first year of a new, young, but talented coaching staff. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence exemplifies this, going from a 79.8 QB rating and a 68.8 PFF grade in the first eleven games of the season to a 110.7 QB rating and a 94.0 PFF grade in the final six games of the season. Lawrence benefitted from an improved supporting cast, but he also elevated his own level of play significantly down the stretch. The Jaguars finished the regular season ranked just 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency at 2.23 points above average, but because their roster got better down the stretch in so many ways, I have them 5.63 points above average in my roster rankings.
The Jaguars’ opponents this week, the Buffalo Bills, finished the regular season 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency at +5.52, possessing significant edges over the Jaguars in first down rate differential (+2.84% vs. +1.61%) and yards per play differential (+0.67 vs. +0.26), which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record, but my roster rankings have these two teams close to even and that’s taking into account that the Bills come into the post-season healthier than they have been in recent weeks. This line is even, but, with these two teams about equal and the Jaguars at home, the Jaguars should be favored at least slightly, with my calculated line at Jacksonville -2. There isn’t enough here for the Jaguars to be bettable, but I like them to win straight up for pick ‘em purposes.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 Buffalo Bills 24
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville PK
Confidence: None
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. The Texans finished 14th at +0.58, while the Steelers finished 22nd at -1.65. Both teams benefited significantly from the turnover margin, with the Texans ranking 2nd at +17 and the Steelers ranking 4th at +12, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +10 or better have an even turnover margin in the post-season and, as a result, cover the spread at just a 46.7% rate, including 45.2% as favorites.
However, it seems to be only the Steelers that are viewed as not as good as their record by the public, as the Texans are favored by 3.5 points in Pittsburgh. With only about two points between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, we are getting great value with the Steelers at that number. The Steelers are also historically a great bet as home underdogs in the Mike Tomlin era, going 20-9-4 ATS and 18-15 straight up, outperforming the spread on average by 3.7 points, more than the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency. I think there is a good chance the Steelers pull the straight up upset at home and, even if they don’t, I like getting 3.5 points to play with, with about a quarter of games decided by 3 points or fewer.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +150
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5
Confidence: High
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately swung on five plays that benefited the Panthers by a margin of 27 points, an interception touchdown, two touchdowns on fourth downs, and two Rams turnovers in field goal range. If just 2 or 3 of those plays had gone the other way, not only would the Rams have won, but they could have won by multiple scores. It seems unlikely things will play out the same way a second time.
Most of the Rams’ five losses this season have gone this way. They won the first down rate battle by +3.61% and the yards per play battle by +0.82 in a 7-point loss to the Eagles in which the Rams’ special teams cost them 12 points with a pair of blocked field goals, one of which was returned for a touchdown. They won the first down rate battle by +7.94% and the yards per play battle by +2.22 in a 3-point overtime loss to the 49ers in which they lost the turnover battle by two, missed a field goal, and failed on a fourth down at the end of the game.
The Rams’ only losses this season in which they lost the first down rate battle were their losses to the Seahawks and Falcons, but the Rams were without multiple key players due to injury in those games, including wide receiver Davante Adams and safety Quentin Lake, both of whom will play this week. Meanwhile, in the Rams’ twelve wins, they won by double digits eight times, relevant considering this line is -10.
The Rams finished the season first by a wide margin in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. The Rams were about 1.7 points better than any other team, and they are healthier now than they have been the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished about 13.2 points behind the Rams in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 26th in the NFL. Not only did they finish at 8-9, worst among playoff qualifiers, but were outscored by double digits in six of their nine losses.
This line might seem high at -10, but favorites of 9.5+ are 12-2 ATS in the first round of the playoffs, as big lines in the post-season tend to be justified. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is definitely a reason not to be afraid of how high this line is. Additionally, favorites are 27-17 ATS in a post-season rematch against a non-divisional opponent who they lost to as favorites in the regular season, as upsets tend to be flukes. Again, that alone is not a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is a reason not to put much, if any stock into the fact that the Panthers won the first matchup between these two teams. The Rams being on the road is also not a reason to be concerned about them, as they have one of the worst homefield advantages in the league and, as a result, are 47-38 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2016. I like the Rams a lot this week.
Los Angeles Rams 34 Carolina Panthers 17
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10
Confidence: High
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
The Bears finished the regular season with a better record than the Packers, but the Packers were statistically the better team this season, finishing with a yards per play differential of +0.60 and a first down rate differential of +1.92%, as opposed to -0.30 and -1.12% for the Bears, which are both much more predictive than win/loss record. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Packers finished about 4.2 points better than the Bears and ranked 7th, as opposed to 19th for the Bears.
The one statistic in which the Bears had a huge edge was turnover margin, with the Bears leading the league at +22, and the Packers ranking 13th at +1, but turnover margin tends to be very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season. Despite the Bears huge edge in turnover margin, the Packers actually had the better point differential this season (+31 vs. +26) and these two teams could have finished with opposite records, with the Bears going 7-4 in one-score games and the Packers going 4-5-1.
One thing in the Bears’ favor is they did get better as the season went on. On offense, second year quarterback Caleb Williams improved as the year went on while four rookies, wide receiver Luther Burden, tight end Colston Loveland, running back Kyle Monangai, and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, got more playing time as the season went on and the offense improved as a result. Meanwhile, their defense is now healthier than it was for most of the season, with cornerback Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed), cornerback Kyler Gordon (14 games missed), linebacker TJ Edwards (7 games missed), and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed) all healthy for this game. On the other hand, the Packers got worse as the season went on, particularly due to the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft, edge defender Micah Parsons, and interior defender Devonte Wyatt for the season with injuries.
That being said, these two teams did face each other late in the season and the Packers were an onside kick recovery away from winning both games. Micah Parsons did play in the first game, but he didn’t play in the second game and neither did talented safety Evan Williams or stud right tackle Zach Tom, while Jordan Love left with a concussion in the first half. All three players will play in this game, so the Packers will be healthier in this game and they were in a game in which they easily could have won in Chicago a few weeks ago. The Bears do get wide receiver Rome Odunze and cornerback Kyler Gordon back, who didn’t play in the last matchup between these two teams, but those players don’t make as much of a difference as the players the Packers get back.
Overall, the gap between these two teams in my roster rankings is not as high as it is in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, but I still give the Packers a 3.5-point edge and, even on the road, I think the Packers are more likely to win than not. Unfortunately, the odds makers don’t really seem to disagree because they have made this an even line, so, while I still like the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be worth betting.
Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 23
Pick against the spread: Green Bay PK
Confidence: None
NFL Pick Results
2025
Total Against the Spread: 145-121-6 (54.51%)
Pick of the Week: 10-8 (55.56%)
High Confidence Picks: 23-21-1 (52.27%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 35-26-2 (57.38%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 68-55-3 (55.28%)
Low Confidence Picks: 52-34-3 (60.47%)
No Confidence Picks: 25-32 (43.86%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 17-15 (53.13%)
2024
Total Against the Spread: 157-122-6 (56.27%)
Pick of the Week: 9-9 (50.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 17-9-2 (65.38%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 42-21-2 (66.67%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 68-39-4 (63.55%)
Low Confidence Picks: 52-46-2 (53.06%)
No Confidence Picks: 37-37 (50.00%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 10-19 (34.48%)
2023
Total Against the Spread: 139-136-10 (50.55%)
Pick of the Week: 8-8-2 (50.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 11-7-2 (61.11%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 44-31-1 (58.67%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 63-46-5 (57.80%)
Low Confidence Picks: 35-51-2 (40.70%)
No Confidence Picks: 41-39-3 (51.25%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-19 (50.00%)
2022
Total Against the Spread: 140-137-7 (50.54%)
Pick of the Week: 7-10-1 (41.18%)
High Confidence Picks: 14-7-1 (66.67%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 29-30-2 (49.15%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 50-47-4 (51.55%)
Low Confidence Picks: 52-52 (50.00%)
No Confidence Picks: 38-38-3 (50.00%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 24-23 (51.06%)
2021
Total Against the Spread: 146-135-4 (51.96%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6-1 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 15-16-1 (48.39%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 43-36 (54.43%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 69-58-2 (54.33%)
Low Confidence Picks: 50-48 (51.02%)
No Confidence Picks: 27-29-2 (48.21%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 14-19 (42.42%)
2020
Total Against the Spread: 138-127-4 (52.08%)
Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)
High Confidence Picks: 20-14 (58.82%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 40-36-1 (52.63%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 70-56-2 (55.56%)
Low Confidence Picks: 49-39 (55.68%)
No Confidence Picks: 19-32-2 (37.25%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-18 (51.35%)
2019
Total Against the Spread: 134-125-8 (51.74%)
Pick of the Week: 12-3-2 (80.00%)
High Confidence Picks: 20-11-1 (64.52%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-2 (49.30%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 67-50-5 (57.26%)
Low Confidence Picks: 35-40-1 (46.67%)
No Confidence Picks: 32-35-2 (47.76%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 22-21 (51.16%)
2018
Total Against the Spread: 154-102-11 (60.16%)
Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)
High Confidence Picks: 21-13-2 (61.76%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 41-27-1 (60.29%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 72-46-4 (61.02%)
Low Confidence Picks: 35-28-1 (55.56%)
No Confidence Picks: 47-28-6 (62.67%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 25-17-1 (59.52%)
2017
Total Against the Spread: 139-120-8 (53.67%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 21-11-3 (65.63%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 33-34-1 (49.25%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 65-51-4 (56.03%)
Low Confidence Picks: 44-38-4 (53.66%)
No Confidence Picks: 30-31 (49.18%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)
2016
Total Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.58%)
Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)
High Confidence Picks: 12-17-2 (41.38%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 42-26-4 (61.76%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (57.02%)
Low Confidence Picks: 34-40-2 (45.95%)
No Confidence Picks: 31-38-2 (44.93%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)
2015
Total Against the Spread: 124-138-5 (47.33%)
Pick of the Week: 9-8 (52.94%)
High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 35-36-1 (49.30%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 58-55-1 (51.33%)
Low Confidence Picks: 36-45-2 (44.44%)
No Confidence Picks: 30-38-2 (44.12%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-30 (34.78%)
2014
Total Against the Spread: 150-113-4 (57.03%)
Pick of the Week: 9-7-1 (56.25%)
High Confidence Picks: 9-11 (45.00%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 57-31 (64.77%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 75-49-1 (60.48%)
Low Confidence Picks: 36-32-2 (52.94%)
No Confidence Picks: 39-32-1 (54.93%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 19-25 (43.18%)
2013
Total Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (57.36%)
Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (62.50%)
High Confidence Picks: 25-10-1 (71.43%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 32-26 (55.17%)
Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 67-42-2 (61.47%)
Low Confidence Picks: 39-28-3 (58.21%)
No Confidence Picks: 42-40-4 (51.22%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 27-31 (46.55%)
All-Time (Since 2013)
Total Against the Spread: 1844-1613-92 (53.34%)
Pick of the Week: 127-89-10 (58.80%)
High Confidence Picks: 222-158-16 (58.42%)
Medium Confidence Picks: 508-396-17 (56.19%)
Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 857-643-43 (57.13%)
Low Confidence Picks: 549-521-22 (51.31%)
No Confidence Picks: 438-449-27 (49.38%)
Moneyline Upset Picks: 257-287-1 (47.24%)
2025 Week 18 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week
High Confidence Picks
HOU 20 IND 16 (+10.5)
JAX 30 (-12.5) TEN 10
CIN 28 (-7.5) CLE 17
Medium Confidence Picks
CHI 28 DET 27 (+4.5)
Low Confidence Picks
LAR 31 (-14) ARZ 15
PHI 24 (-3.5) WAS 17
KC 20 LV 17 (+4.5)
MIN 20 GB 10 (+12.5)
ATL 20 NO 17 (+4)
DAL 31 (-3) NYG 27
DEN 27 (-14) LAC 10
No Confidence Picks
BUF 26 NYJ 14 (+12.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
The Browns were my top pick last week as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers, but that was because the Steelers were missing a lot of key personnel and were in the type of spot where they have historically struggled under head coach Mike Tomlin, going 7-24 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 or more after a win since his first season in 2007. Fortunately for the Steelers, the opposite is also true, as they are 9-2 ATS and straight up as home underdogs of 3.5 or more during that stretch, including 4-1 ATS after a loss.
The Steelers are also healthier this week. They are still without top wide receiver DK Metcalf and also lost talented tight end Darnell Washington last week, but they get back arguably their best offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo, stud edge defender TJ Watt, and cornerback James Pierre, who has been their best cornerback this season when in the lineup. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Steelers to bounce back with a more complete team in a better spot.
Baltimore Ravens 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4
Confidence: Medium
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)
I made a big bet on the Dolphins last week as 6-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers, but that was much more a bet against the Buccaneers, who have one win since week 8 and just two wins by more than three points all season, rather than on the Dolphins. The Dolphins won that game straight up, but they needed to win the turnover battle by three to do so, which is not consistent week-to-week. First down rate and yards per play are much more consistent and the Dolphins lost the first down rate battle (-8.23%) and yards per play battle (-0.51) to a Buccaneers team that ranks 20th and 28th in those metrics respectively.
The Dolphins’ win last week also puts them in a bad spot, as teams tend to struggle after big home upset wins, covering at a 40.8% rate the week after winning as home underdogs of five points or more, including a 34.9% cover rate when they are underdogs of five or more again. Additionally, the Dolphins historically have struggled against good teams in the Mike McDaniel era, going 2-10 straight up and 3-9 ATS against teams that are .500 or better in week 11 or later. This season specifically, they are 6-2 straight up against teams with a losing record, but just 1-7 against teams that are .500 or better, with four double digit losses, three of which came on the road in their four road games against teams with a .500 or better record (8-8 Carolina is the one exception).
Making matters worse, the Dolphins will be without two of their best offensive playmakers, running back De’Von Achane and tight end Darren Waller, this week due to injury. Despite this, the Dolphins are only 10.5-point underdogs in New England this week, against a Patriots team that is one of the best in the league and that is getting healthier this week, with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, left tackle Will Campbell, and defensive tackle Milton Williams all set to return.
This line has crept up to 11 or 11.5 since I locked this in at 10.5 earlier this week, but I still like the Patriots a lot at that number. One potential concern is the Patriots pulling starters late if the Broncos are up big on the short-handed Chargers, which would eliminate the Patriots from contention for the #1 seed, but the Broncos have two double digit wins all year and play a lot of close games, so I am not really concerned about that. The Patriots are my top pick this week.
New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 13
Pick against the spread: New England -10.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to injury, but he will get tight end George Kittle back after he missed his sixth game of the season due to injury last week. As a result of their recent winning streak, the public seems to not understand why the Seahawks are favored by a point on the road in this game, betting on the 49ers heavily. The Seahawks are a big step up from the teams they have played on their winning streak though, as they rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+5.55%) and 1st in yards per play differential (+1.34).
The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 7th in first down rate differential (2.35%) and 18th in yards per play differential (-0.07). Part of that is due to the injuries the 49ers have had this season and they are overall healthier than they have been, but my roster rankings still suggest the oddsmakers are right to favor the visitor in this game and, if anything, this line is a little short, with my calculated line at -2.5. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 24
Pick against the spread: Seattle -1
Confidence: Low
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