Author: stevenlourie

2026 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Mock Draft

1. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

It seems likely that the intrigue in this draft won’t start until the second pick, as the Raiders need a quarterback and Fernando Mendoza is by far the best quarterback available. 

2. New York Jets – OLB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

The Jets might have bigger needs than edge defender, but they aren’t in a position to do anything other than draft the best player available and it seems likely that Reese will be seen as the best available player. Caleb Downs is also a candidate for best player available, but edge defenders go much higher on average than safeties. Wide receiver Carnell Tate would probably fill the biggest need of any of the top available players, but he would probably be a small reach at this stage.

3. Arizona Cardinals – OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

Most of the best available players at this stage of the draft do not line up with the needs the Cardinals have, so they are a strong candidate to trade down. If they stay put, they could justify a small reach for the best available offensive tackle in the draft, given how many issues they had on the offensive line last season.

4. Tennessee Titans – DE Rueben Bain (Miami)

Wide receiver Carnell Tate would make some sense here, but the Titans have more at wide receiver, where they drafted a couple promising players in the middle rounds last year, Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike, than they have at edge defender, where they didn’t have a player with more than 5 sacks last season. If they view Tate as a significantly better player, he will be the pick, but if Bain and Tate are close on their board, Bain would make more sense because he fits their needs more.

5. New York Giants – WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson could be a high level wide receiver duo, but Nabers is coming off of a major knee injury that could keep him out for the start of next season, while Robinson is a free agent. Tate gives them insurance for Nabers and, even in a best case scenario where Nabers is healthy and Robinson returns, he would give the Giants arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league.

6. Cleveland Browns – OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

The Browns had arguably the worst offensive tackle room in the league last season and need to find a new starting left tackle and a new starting right tackle this off-season. Fano would fill one of those holes.

7. Washington Commanders – S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

Caleb Downs is one of the best players in this draft, but safeties typically have a lower position value than other positions and could fall as a result. The Commanders seem like his floor though, as they have arguably the worst safety room in the league. Downs could be an immediate Pro Bowl caliber player at a position of significant need.

8. New Orleans Saints – RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

The Saints had one of the worst running games in the league last season, ranking 31st in yards per carry at 3.69. Injuries were part of the problem, but none of their running back options got the job done. Alvin Kamara, their long-time lead back, is going into his age 31 season and is clearly past his prime. With no guaranteed money left on his contract, the Saints could move on from him this off-season and find a new feature back in the draft. Love is by far the best running back prospect in this draft and, even with the relative lower position value of the running back position, he still has a good chance to go in the top-10.

9. Kansas City Chiefs – DE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

The Chiefs need an upgrade at edge defender opposite George Karlaftis. They can take advantage of a rare high draft pick to add a blue chip edge defender prospect.

10. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

The Bengals had arguably the worst linebacker room in the league last season. Styles is a rare off ball linebacker prospect who could go in the top-10. He could play every down at a Pro Bowl level as a rookie and would be a huge upgrade immediately.

11. Miami Dolphins – CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

The Dolphins entered the 2025 season with one of the worst cornerback rooms in the league. Free agent signing Rasul Douglas proved to be a steal, but he was on a one-year deal. Even if he returns, the Dolphins don’t have much else at the position and Douglas is not a long-term solution anyway, going into his age 31 season.

12. Dallas Cowboys – DE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)

The Cowboys got surprisingly decent edge defender play this season after trading Micah Parsons, but four of their top-5 edge defenders this season are set to hit free agency. They should take this opportunity to find a better long-term solution opposite promising rookie Donovan Ezeiruaku.

13. Los Angeles Rams – CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)

Cornerback was the Rams’ biggest weakness this season. They probably will have a pick of several options available at #13 overall.

14. Baltimore Ravens – WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)

Zay Flowers was the only player on the Ravens with more than 422 receiving yards last season. Their #2 wide receiver in terms of receiving yards was DeAndre Hopkins, who had 330 yards and is now a free agent going into his age 34 season. Jordyn Tyson would be an instant upgrade.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)

The Buccaneers have a deep wide receiver room when healthy, but could use an upgrade at tight end, where Cade Otton had just a 59/572/1 slash line in 2025, despite all of the Buccaneers wide receiver injuries. With Otton set to hit free agency this off-season, the Buccaneers could use this opportunity to upgrade. Sadiq looks like the undisputed top tight end prospect in this draft and could be a top-15 pick.

16. New York Jets – QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)

The Jets lost out on the #1 pick on a tiebreaker and, as a result, don’t get by far the best available quarterback in this draft, but they will have to take a shot on a quarterback at some point, with limited veterans options available this off-season.

17. Detroit Lions – OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)

Left tackle Taylor Decker is considering retirement, ahead of what would be his age 32 season in 2026. Even if he returns for another year, the Lions need a left tackle of the future and Proctor can spend a year or two at guard, where the Lions struggled in 2025.

18. Minnesota Vikings – CB Avieon Terrell (Clemson)

The Vikings had a good defense in 2025, but cornerback was a position of weakness and it would make sense for the Vikings to address that position early in the draft.

19. Carolina Panthers – DT Peter Woods (Clemson)

This isn’t a good defensive tackle class at the top, but Woods seems likely to be the first defensive tackle off the board and a likely top-20 pick. He would make sense for the Panthers, who need help inside next to Derrick Brown.

20. Dallas Cowboys – OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)

The Cowboys used a first round pick on Tyler Guyton two years ago to play left tackle for them, but he hasn’t panned out. Lomu could replace him at left tackle or he could replace right tackle Terence Steele, who could be a cap casualty this off-season.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR Makai Lemon (USC)

Five of the Steelers’ top-7 in receiving yards last season were either running backs or tight ends. With a new offensive coaching staff coming in, the Steelers will likely put more of an emphasis on the wide receiver position and they need an infusion of talent at the position to do that. Lemon could instantly be the #2 wide receiver opposite DK Metcalf.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – G Vega Ioane (Penn State)

The Chargers’ offensive line will be better next season when Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater return from injury, but they still have a massive need at guard that they could address early in the draft.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)

The Eagles defense got a lot better down the stretch after they traded for edge defender Jaelan Phillips, but he is a free agent this off-season and the Eagles might not have the cap flexibility to keep him on a long-term contract. Instead, they could address the edge defender position early in the draft.

24. Cleveland Browns – WR Denzel Boston (Washington)

The Browns addressed their dire need at wide receiver with their early first round pick, but they have an equally big need at wide receiver. They should address this position with their late first round pick if they are unable to take one with their early first round pick.

25. Chicago Bears – DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)

The Bears signed Grady Jarrett in free agency last year, but he was a disappointment and he is now going into his age 33 season. He has too much guaranteed money left on his contract for the Bears to move on from him this off-season, but they need a long-term replacement who can reduce Jarrett’s role in the short-term.

26. Buffalo Bills – DE TJ Parker (Clemson)

Joey Bosa was a good 1-year signing last off-season, but he is a free agent this off-season and might not return to Buffalo. Even if he does, he is going into his age 31 season with an extensive injury history.

27. San Francisco 49ers – WR Kevin Concepcion (Texas A&M)

Brandon Aiyuk seems like he is done in San Francisco. Ricky Pearsall was a first round pick two years ago, but he has not panned out thus far. Jauan Jennings was their best wide receiver last season, but he is a free agent this off-season. Even if he returns, the 49ers will need help at the position, especially given that they will likely feature wide receivers more in their offense next season, with tight end George Kittle coming off of a torn achilles.

28. Houston Texans – DT Caleb Downs (Florida)

Sheldon Rankins and Tim Settle proved to be a solid interior defender duo last season, but both are free agents this off-season, so the Texans will likely need to find help early in the draft.

29. Los Angeles Rams – QB Trinidad Chambliss (Mississippi)

The Rams don’t have a long-term option at quarterback behind Matt Stafford, who is heading into his age 38 season. Backup Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t much younger, going into his age 35 season. If there is a developmental quarterback prospect they like in this draft, they will likely use one of their two first round picks on him.

30. Denver Broncos – MLB CJ Allen (Georgia)

Alex Singleton was their top off ball linebacker this season in terms of snaps played, but he is a free agent going into his age 33 season and the Broncos may use this opportunity to find a long-term replacement and upgrade in the draft.

31. New England Patriots – DE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)

The Patriots are in the Super Bowl, but they had a below average 35 sacks this season, despite playing with a lot of leads and facing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They figure to look for edge rush help early in the draft.

32. Seattle Seahawks – CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina)

The Seahawks don’t have a lot of needs, but Tariq Woolen is a free agent this off-season and has never been a good fit for Mike Macdonald’s scheme, so they could let him walk and replace him through the draft.

2021 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)

    There are a lot of great players in this draft, but, as a rule of thumb, I tend to prioritize franchise quarterbacks going to quarterback needy teams over any other position and I tend to stick with the original pick whenever it makes sense, especially if the team extended their original pick on a big contract. Both are true in this case, as Trevor Lawrence signed a 5-year, 275 million dollar extension with the Jaguars two off-season ago, which still makes him tied for the second highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary and, while he he has had his up and downs, he is coming off of a career best 2025 campaign. He completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, while scoring 38 total touchdowns to 15 total turnovers and leading the Jaguars to a 13-4 record in the first year of new head coach Liam Coen. Still only going into his age 27 season in 2026, Lawrence is set up to be the Jaguars’ franchise quarterback long-term. I don’t think the Jaguars want a do over on this, even with other great players on the board.

    2. New York Jets – WR Ja’Marr Chase (LSU)

      The Jets, on the other hand, would love a do over, as their original pick here, quarterback Zach Wilson, is one of the biggest busts in recent memory. There isn’t another good quarterback option to give the Jets here, but the Jets will have their pick of some All-Pro caliber players at other positions. Micah Parsons probably would have been the pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late in the 2025 season, but Ja’Marr Chase is not a bad player for the Jets to pivot to. One of the best wide receivers in the league, averaging a 113/1490/12 slash line per 17 games in his career, while missing just 7 games total, Chase would be a massive upgrade for a Jets team that was led in receiving in 2021 by second round rookie Elijah Moore, who had just 538 receiving yards. Chase probably wouldn’t be as productive away from Joe Burrow and the Bengals, but he is too good for the Jets to pass on.

      3. San Francisco 49ers – DE Micah Parsons (Penn State)

        Here is another team that would love a do over, as their original pick here, quarterback Trey Lance, was just as big of a bust as Wilson, arguably even more so, when you consider the 49ers traded away three first round picks to select him 3rd overall. Luckily, the 49ers found Brock Purdy with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to give them the franchise quarterback they thought Lance would be. Otherwise, the failed Lance pick would be even more of a blunder. In this redraft, they can take a player actually worth three first round picks. Parsons’ torn ACL late in the 2025 season dampens his long-term outlook somewhat, but before the injury, he had been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league since his rookie year, totaling 65 sacks, 80 hits, and an 18.8% pressure rate in 77 career games. He would give the 49ers a much needed upgrade opposite Nick Bosa, giving the 49ers the best edge defender duo in the league.

        4. Atlanta Falcons – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

          The Falcons missed out on Ja’Marr Chase when they took tight end Kyle Pitts over him the first time around and now Chase goes two picks ahead of them in this re-draft, but the Falcons still can get a great wide receiver in this draft, much needed since their leading wide receiver in 2021 was Russell Gage, who had just a 66/770/4 slash line and then left in free agency the following off-season. St. Brown, who originally fell to the 4th round somehow, has proven to be a steal for the Lions, averaging a 112/1281/9 slash line per 17 games with two total games missed in his career. In most years, he would be the first wide receiver off the board in a re-draft.

          5. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)

            The Bengals lose their original pick Ja’Marr Chase, but, given that they already had Tee Higgins on the roster and that their offensive line play has consistently held this team back, adding an elite offensive lineman in a re-draft rather than Chase might actually make them better in the long-term. Originally the 7th overall pick to the Lions, Sewell has developed into the best right tackle in the league, receiving PFF grades of 77.0, 80.6, 91.0, 87.5, and 95.2 in his five seasons in the league, while making each of the last four Pro Bowls and each of the last three 1st team All-Pros.

            6. Miami Dolphins – CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)

              The Dolphins original pick here, Jaylen Waddle, was not a bad selection and the Dolphins rewarded him with a 3-year, 84.75 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, but they can shoot a little higher in this re-draft with 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain. The anchor of the Broncos’ elite defense, Surtain has made four Pro Bowls, two All-Pro first teams and one All-Pro second team in his career and is arguably the best player in the league at his position.

              7. Detroit Lions – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

                The Lions lose out the most in this redraft, with two players they selected in the original draft going in the top-5 already, but the Lions can at least replace St. Brown with another high level wide receiver. Collins took a couple years to start producing at a high level, but that could be in part due to his poor quarterback play in those two years. Since being paired with CJ Stroud in 2023, Collins has averaged a 89/1384/9 slash line per 17 games over the past three seasons. Durability has been a minor concern, as he has missed 19 games in five seasons in the league, but he is true #1 receiver when healthy and he is the best available option on the board for the Lions, after the numerous All-Pro caliber players selected before this pick.

                8. Carolina Panthers – CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)

                  Jaycee Horn was the Panthers’ original pick here. Injuries were a big concern for him early in his career, as he missed 29 games in his first three seasons in the league, but he always flashed talent and put it all together in 2024, when he played 15 games, earning a 4-year, 100 million dollar extension, which makes him currently the 3rd highest paid cornerback in the league in average annual salary. Horn then lived up to that extension in 2025, when he played a career high 16 games and continued playing at a high level, making his second straight Pro Bowl. You could argue there are better players left on the board, but I don’t think the Panthers want a redo on this selection.

                  9. Denver Broncos – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

                    The Broncos miss out on their original first round pick, Patrick Surtain, but they also originally drafted another elite player in this draft, taking Quinn Meinerz in the third round. Meinerz’s small school status and his position caused him to fall to the third round originally, but he has developed into one of the best guards in the NFL, receiving PFF grades of 67.4, 77.7, 83.7, 88.2, and 90.9 in five seasons in the league, while making the first team All-Pro in back-to-back seasons. It’s normally hard to justify taking a guard this high, but Meinerz is arguably the best guard in the league and the Broncos are clearly thrilled with him, extending him as soon as possible two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal, which now looks like a great value.

                    10. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Devonta Smith (Alabama)

                      Devonta Smith is not the true #1 receiver that the wide receivers taken ahead of him are, but the Eagles took him here originally and have to be pretty happy with him. They extended him on a 3-year, 75 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago and he has averaged a 82/1067/7 slash line per 17 games, despite playing on one of the most run heavy teams in the league. Even if he’s not elite, he’s a good fit for the Eagles’ offense and they would probably take him again, given their other options.

                      11. Chicago Bears – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

                        Centers don’t often go this high, but Humphrey is probably the best center in the league, receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.0, 78.2, 92.8, and 88.8 in five seasons in the league, while making four straight Pro Bowls, two 1st team All-Pros, and one 2nd team All-Pro in his career. He would be a big help for the Bears, whose starting center in 2021 was Sam Mustipher, who ranked 37th among 41 eligible centers on PFF that season. The Bears eventually found a great center in Drew Dalman, who they signed in free agency last off-season, but Humphrey solves the issue faster and is a better player than even Dalman is.

                        12. Dallas Cowboys – DE Greg Rousseau (Miami)

                          The Cowboys don’t get Micah Parsons this time around, but Greg Rousseau is a great edge player in his own right. His 32 sacks in 78 career games don’t jump off the page, but the Bills rotate defensive ends more than most teams, leading to Rousseau playing just 589 snaps per season in his career, and, despite that, he still has added 60 hits to those 32 sacks, while being one of the most efficient edge rushers in the league on a per snap basis, recording a 13.9% pressure rate in his career and a 14.4% pressure rate over the past three seasons. He could easily have a much higher sack total in a bigger role.

                          13. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)

                            Rashawn Slater, the Chargers’ original pick here, has been one of the best left tackles in the league when healthy in his career, with PFF grades of 83.6, 76.6, and 91.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively. Unfortunately, he has missed all or most of his other two seasons due to injury, including the entirety of the 2025 season. The Chargers extended him on a 4-year, 114 million deal last off-season right before his injury, making him the highest paid offensive tackle in the league in average annual salary, and, given how badly their offensive line fared in his absence, I don’t think they have any regrets about that deal and would draft him again if given the chance, given the other available options.

                            14. New York Jets – WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)

                              The Jets already got Ja’Marr Chase out of this draft, but their need for wide receiver help in 2021 was so dire that they could definitely double up on the position with their two first round picks if the right player falls to them. In this case, the right player does fall, as I have been trying to fit Jaylen Waddle in somewhere for the last few picks. He is not an elite #1 receiver and probably wouldn’t go 6th overall to the Dolphins again, but has averaged a 81/1098/6 slash line per 17 games in his career and would still go off the board fairly early, even in a deep wide receiver class.

                              15. New England Patriots – OT Alaric Jackson (Iowa)

                                The Patriots’ original first round pick here, Mac Jones, did not work out in New England and the Patriots moved on after three years. Jones fared better in San Francisco this season, but the Patriots probably wouldn’t give him another shot in a re-draft. Instead, they beef up an offensive line that was part of the reason why Jones struggled for much of his time in New England. Alaric Jackson somehow went undrafted the first time around, but he has developed into a solid left tackle for the Rams, making 45 starts in the past three seasons and receiving season-long PFF grades of 66.2, 78.3, and 82.9 over that time.

                                16. Arizona Cardinals – G Trey Smith (Tennessee)

                                  The Cardinals have had offensive line issues for years, especially at guard. In 2021, three of the four players who made starts at guard for them finished below average on PFF. Trey Smith, on the other hand, has PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, 72.2, 78.8, and 68.5 in his five seasons in the league, while starting 79 of a possible 85 games over that stretch and making two Pro Bowls.

                                  17. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

                                    The Raiders’ original pick here, right tackle Alex Leatherwood, was seen as a reach at the time and proved to be a massive bust, lasting just one season in Las Vegas. Spencer Brown, on the other hand, is a former third round pick who took a couple years to develop, but who has turned into one of the better right tackles in the league, receiving PFF grades of 68.1, 73.6, and 76.2 over the past three seasons. He would have immediately been a better pick than Leatherwood and would have developed into a much needed high level offensive lineman on an offensive line that was otherwise one of the worst in the league in 2025.

                                    18. Miami Dolphins – DE Jaelan Phillips (Miami)

                                      Jaelan Phillips had an up and down career in Miami after being selected with this pick originally. He looked like he was on his way to becoming one of the best edge defenders in the league with PFF grades of 87.7 and 79.8 in 2022 and 2023, while totaling 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games over those two seasons, but he tore his achilles down the stretch in 2023 and was limited to 134 snaps in 2024 due to various injuries. Upon his return in 2025, he was solid, but not as good as before, leading to the Dolphins trading him away to the Eagles for a third round pick at the deadline, at which point he seemed to find his old form, finishing the year with a 74.0 PFF grade, 5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate in 17 games, despite a relatively slow start. All things considered, the Dolphins would probably draft him again, given the circumstances, especially since he did return a relatively high pick once he was eventually traded, and he seems likely to get a big contract as a free agent on the open market this off-season, assuming the Eagles don’t franchise tag him.

                                      19. Washington Commanders – G Sam Cosmi (Texas)

                                        The Commanders’ original pick here, Jamin Davis, proved to be a bust, but their second round pick this year, Sam Cosmi, was a much better selection. He has received PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, 80.6, 68.1, and 76.3 in five seasons in the league, originally moving back and forth between right tackle and guard, before settling in at guard. Injuries have been a concern for him, costing him 27 games in five seasons, but the Commanders still locked him up on a 4-year, 74 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago and would probably want to keep him in a redraft, even if it meant using their first round pick on him this time around.

                                        20. New York Giants – OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)

                                          Darrisaw could have been a top-15 or even top-10 pick if I had done this a year or two ago, but Darrisaw tore his ACL midway through the 2024 season and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2025, missing seven games and falling to a 65.9 PFF grade, after grades of 71.9, 90.3, 82.4, and 81.4 in his four previous seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season in 2026, Darrisaw could easily bounce back, but he is a riskier pick than he would have been pre-injury. The Giants take a chance on him and could wind up getting a steal, especially given how much they have needed offensive line help in recent years.

                                          21. Indianapolis Colts – TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)

                                            Kyle Pitts never lived up his draft slot after being taken 4th overall by the Falcons, making him the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, but, despite his ups and downs, he still has the 8th most catches and the 4th most receiving yards by a tight end since entering the league and would probably still be taken in the first round by someone. Still only going into his age 26 season, Pitts posted career highs in catches (88) and touchdowns (5) in 2025, while finishing with the second highest yardage total of his career (926) and figures to either get a big contract or the franchise tag this off-season. The Colts had next to nothing at the tight end position until drafting Tyler Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft and Pitts would have given them a much needed weapon over the middle four years sooner.

                                            22. Tennessee Titans – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

                                              Milton Williams took a few years to develop, but he has turned into one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. In 29 games over the past two seasons, he has 8.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.8% pressure rate and, while his run defense isn’t as good, he would still be a valuable addition to any defensive line. His slow start to his career causes him to not go as high as he otherwise would, but he would be a good fit in Tennessee inside next to Jeffery Simmons.

                                              23. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

                                                The Vikings had Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr as their top-2 linebackers in 2021 and they were once a talented duo, but they were getting to the end of their time in Minnesota, with 2021 being Barr’s final season and Kendricks leaving after 2022. In the meantime, Nick Bolton could have been an upgrade over third linebacker Nick Vigil before becoming an every down player in 2022. Originally a second round pick by the Chiefs, Bolton has developed into an above average every down player.

                                                24. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Mac Jones (Alabama)

                                                  Mac Jones was a tough player to slot. Obviously he was a bust with the Patriots, but he showed signs of being a solid starter at times in New England and showed even more signs as an injury fill-in with the 49ers in 2025. He figures to be a hot commodity on the trade market this off-season and will likely be starting somewhere in 2026. In a weak quarterback class in 2021, that is probably enough for him to get a late first round look from a quarterback needy team. In Pittsburgh, he could have sat for a year behind Ben Roethlisberger and overall he would have been in a better situation than he was in New England for a Steelers team that drafted a much bigger first round pick bust in Kenny Pickett the year after this draft. As of 2025, the Steelers have still not found a long-term franchise quarterback, going from stopgap to stopgap over the past few seasons.

                                                  25. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Osa Odighizuwa (UCLA)

                                                    I thought about sticking with the Jaguars original first round pick, running back Travis Etienne, who had his moments in Jacksonville, including three seasons of 1,400 yards from scrimmage, but he hasn’t quite been the elite level of running back that is deserving of being a first round pick and the Jaguars are not expected to prioritize re-signing him as a free agent this off-season. Instead, the Jaguars address a need at defensive tackle that has persisted for years. Osa Odighizuwa leaves something to be desired as a run stopper, but he is a consistently above average interior pass rusher, with 17 sacks, 59 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 84 games over the past five seasons. Originally a third round pick by the Cowboys, Odighizuka was extended on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal last off-season that looks like a solid value, making him the 16th highest paid interior defender in the league.

                                                    26. Cleveland Browns – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

                                                      The Browns had one of the worst defensive tackles rooms in the league in 2021. Barmore would have gone higher if hadn’t missed a large portion of two seasons with injury, but he has 15.5 sacks, 30 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate when on the field in his career, across 65 games. He is not nearly as good as a run defender, but his pass rush ability makes him a worthy pick here.

                                                      27. Baltimore Ravens – S Talanoa Hufanga (USC)

                                                        The Ravens had an underwhelming safety room in 2021 and used their second round pick Brandon Stephens extensively as a rookie, only to see him struggle and eventually move to cornerback. The Ravens signed Marcus Williams to a big contract during the 2022 off-season, but he never lived up to it. A player like Talanoa Hufanga would have allowed the Ravens to avoid that mistake. Hufanga was 1st team All-Pro in 2022 and, while injuries limited him to just 885 underwhelming snaps played over the next two seasons, he bounced back to make the 2nd team All-Pro in 2025, after signing with the Broncos on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal last off-season. Only going into his age 27 season, Hufanga will be a steal at that price if he can continue avoiding injuries.

                                                        28. New Orleans Saints – MLB Ernest Jones (South Carolina)

                                                          The Saints originally used their second round pick in this draft on linebacker Pete Warner who has been decent, but Jones would be an upgrade inside next to Demario Davis. He would cost them their first round pick in this redraft, but he would be worth it. Originally a 3rd round pick, Jones became a starter as a rookie for the Super Bowl Champion Rams (7 starts) and has made 56 starts in four seasons since with the Rams, Titans, and Seahawks, developing into a solid every down middle linebacker.

                                                          29. Green Bay Packers – C Drew Dalman (Stanford)

                                                            The Packers used their second round pick in this draft on Josh Myers and he immediately became a starter at center, but Dalman would be a big upgrade. He took a couple years to develop and has been inconsistent as a pass protector, but he has PFF grades of 82.3, 78.8, and 77.5 over the past three seasons, including grades of 90.0, 79.8, and 79.0 as a run blocker. The Bears signed him to a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, making him the 4th highest paid center in the league by average annual salary, and he proved to be worth it, making his first career Pro Bowl in 2025.

                                                            30. Buffalo Bills – DE Odafe Oweh (Penn State)

                                                              The Bills’ original pick Greg Rousseau went way higher in this re-draft, but Oweh is not a bad replacement. He has 30.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 79 games in five seasons in the league. After a slow start to his contract year in 2025, he was traded to the Chargers from the Ravens and, after bouncing back nicely, he figures to get a significant payday this off-season. Even with his slow start to 2025 and eventual trade, the Ravens, who got a solid safety in Alohi Gilman in return for him, might still draft him again at 31 in a re-draft if they had the chance. The Bills deny them that opportunity and take him one spot earlier.

                                                              31. Baltimore Ravens – DT Alim McNeill (NC State)

                                                                The Ravens miss out on Oweh and pivot to an interior pass rusher. McNeill tore his ACL late in the 2024 season and did not seem to be the same upon his return in 2025, with 1 sack, 1 hit, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 10 games and a 47.2 run defense grade on PFF, after 8.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate PFF run defense grades of 79.3 and 64.5 in 27 games in his previous two seasons. Still, he is only going into his age 26 season in 2026 and could easily bounce back another year removed from his injury. 

                                                                32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Jevon Holland (Oregon)

                                                                  The Buccaneers did not have a lot of needs in the 2021 off-season, returning all 22 starters from their Super Bowl winning team in 2020, but they could have used a long-term starter at safety next to Antoine Winfield. Holland could have been a reserve for a year, before taking over as the starter in 2022. He has been inconsistent in his career, but the Buccaneers may be able to get the best out of him and, at his best, he has received PFF grades of 84.7 and 90.4 in 2021 and 2023 respectively, leading to him receiving a 3-year, 45.3 million dollar deal from the Giants last off-season, making him the 10th highest paid safety in the league in average annual value.

                                                                  New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl LX Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2025 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Seahawks, Super Bowl LX Pick

                                                                  New England Patriots (17-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in Super Bowl LX

                                                                  The Seahawks are the better of these two teams, but I don’t think the gap between these two teams is big enough to justify a 4.5-point spread, with about 30% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play at +1.17 and 1st in first down rate differential at +5.43%, but the Patriots aren’t far behind, ranking 2nd in yards per play at +1.03 and 3rd in first down rate differential at +3.01%. The Seahawks have faced a significantly tougher schedule and have better special teams, but, even when those are factored in, the Seahawks are only about 4 points ahead of the Patriots in schedule adjusted efficiency.

                                                                  My roster rankings have these two teams even closer than that, with about a 3-point gap between these two teams, as a result of the Patriots being in a slightly better injury situation. Both teams have had key players miss time and return this season, but the Patriots have had slightly more. For the Patriots, the key players who have missed time and returned are starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (3 games missed), lead running back Rhomandre Stevenson (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Mack Collins (4 games missed), starting left tackle Will Campbell (4 games missed), starting left guard Jared Wilson (4 games missed), top cornerback Christian Gonzalez (3 games missed), top linebacker Robert Spillane (4 games missed), top defensive tackle Milton Williams (5 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Anfernee Jennings (3 games missed) and Kryisis Tonga (4 games missed).

                                                                  Meanwhile, for the Seahawks, their shorter list includes starting left tackle Charles Cross (3 games missed), starting center Jalen Sundell (4 games missed), top cornerback Devon Witherspoon (5 games missed), top safety Julian Love (9 games missed), slot cornerback Nick Emmanwori (3 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Derick Hall (3 games missed), and Jarren Reed (4 games missed). The Patriots are also the healthier team going into this game, essentially at full strength, while the Seahawks continue to be without rotational running back Zach Charbonnet for the 3rd straight game. 

                                                                  History is also not on the side of the Seahawks covering this spread. Since 2000, favorites of more than a field goal are just 2-11 ATS and 6-7 straight up in the Super Bowl. That alone isn’t a reason to bet the Patriots, but it backs up the rest of my analysis that suggests this line is a little too high. The Super Bowl is the most bet game of the season and the sportsbooks know they can boost the spread a little bit more than they otherwise would and casual bettors will still take the favorite, as they are in this game, with about 75% of the money on the Seahawks. I like the Patriots for a small wager.

                                                                  Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20

                                                                  Pick against the spread: New England +4.5

                                                                  Confidence: Medium

                                                                  Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2025 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

                                                                  Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

                                                                  The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st in DVOA (+41.3%), first down rate differential (+6.04%), and yards per play differential (+1.34), while the Rams rank 2nd in those two metrics at +39.9%, +5.14%, and +0.85 respectively. On the other hand, both my roster rankings and PFF’s team rankings have the Rams first and the Seahawks second. When these two teams met twice earlier this season, their matchups were about as even as you’d expect, with the Rams winning the first matchup by two and the Seahawks winning the second matchup in overtime by one. Both matchups legitimately could have gone either way. 

                                                                  With that in mind, I am drawn to taking the points, even if there are only 2.5 of them. A 2.5-point underdog would have covered both of the previous two matchups. The Seahawks are at home, but I am not sure how much that matters because the Rams have had limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles and, as a result, are 47-40 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016, outperforming the spread by an average of 1.1 points per game. 

                                                                  The Rams are also healthier than they were in the game they lost to the Seahawks a few weeks ago. The Seahawks were without wide receiver Davante Adams and top safety Quentin Lake in that game, while their best offensive lineman, right guard Kevin Dotson, left the game with injuries, part of the reason why the Rams blew a big lead late. In this game, all three will play and should be close to 100%, after all three also played last week. 

                                                                  The Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross this time around, after he did not play a few weeks ago, but they also will be without talented running back Zach Charbonnet and, overall, the Rams are in a comparatively better injury position than the Seahawks were in their previous matchup. Despite that, this line is 2.5 this time around, rather than 1.5, which the Seahawks didn’t even cover. I think the money line is worth a bet at the very least at +130, but I would probably need this line to become a full field goal to bet the spread.

                                                                  Los Angeles Rams 26 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +130

                                                                  Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

                                                                  Confidence: Low

                                                                  New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2025 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots

                                                                  New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)

                                                                  The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and needs surgery that will end his season. In his absence, the Broncos will turn to backup Jarrett Stidham in one of the biggest games of the season. In seven seasons in the league, Stidham has started four games, all of which came at the end of the season for a team that was already eliminated, and the former fourth round pick has just a 78.3 QB rating on 197 career pass attempts.

                                                                  With Nix out and Stidham in, the Broncos are 5.5-point home underdogs this week and the public is heavily on the Patriots, with about 75% of the money on them. That seems like an overreaction though, as the early line was Denver -1.5. That means this line has shifted 7 points for Nix’s absence, which is a massive amount for a non-elite quarterback. Normally injuries to quarterbacks of Nix’s caliber trigger about a 4-5 point line movement. 

                                                                  My calculated line has the Patriots favored by a field goal, so we’re getting good line value at +5.5. The Broncos have never been an offensive team, ranking 20th in first down rate and 15th in yards per play at 29.92% and 5.32 respectively, while their defense ranks 4th in first down rate allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 27.64% and 4.55 respectively. The Patriots have just 4.91 yards per play and a 24.81% first down rate in two home post-season games against tough defenses (Chargers and Texans) and figure to struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the road. I still think the Patriots will win, but in what should be a low scoring game, I like getting 5.5 points with the home team. I would bet the Broncos at anything 4.5 or higher.

                                                                  New England Patriots 16 Denver Broncos 13

                                                                  Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

                                                                  Confidence: Medium

                                                                  Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, Bills, Broncos, NFL Picks

                                                                  Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

                                                                  These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game is in Denver rather than Buffalo, which matters somewhat, but not nearly enough for a 9.5-point line movement. It would also seem the Broncos are better this year than last year, going from 10-7 to 14-3, while the Bills are worse, going from 13-4 to 12-5. However, that might not be as true as it seems.

                                                                  The Bills have fallen from a +157 point differential in 2024 to a +116 point differential this season, but, overall, their team is very similar to a year ago. Of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Broncos, at least 15 and up to 18 of 22 are expected to play in this game, depending on the final injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually had a better point differential last season (+114) compared to this season (+90), as the biggest reason for their improved record this season is that they went from 1-6 in one-score games to 9-2. Meanwhile, of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Bills, 16 of 22 are expected to play in this game.

                                                                  Two of the six who won’t play for the Broncos this season that played last year are center Luke Wattenburg and safety Brandon Jones, who both got hurt down the stretch this season and could prove to be big absences in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills are relatively healthy. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed 5 games this season, right tackle Spencer Brown missed 3, interior defender Daquan Jones missed 5, and fellow interior defender Ed Oliver missed 15, but only Oliver is at risk of missing this game. At the very least, I like betting on the money line this week, as the Bills should be favored in this game, but I may end up betting on the spread as well, depending on the final injury report.

                                                                  Update: Ed Oliver is playing, which is enough for me to increase this to a medium confidence bet.

                                                                  Buffalo Bills 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +105

                                                                  Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

                                                                  Confidence: Medium

                                                                  Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Rams

                                                                  Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6)

                                                                  These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score in just 4 of their 12 wins and going 8-4 in one score games, the Rams won by multiple scores in 8 of their 13 and went just 5-5 in one score games. As a result of that, the Rams enter this game with a +175 point differential, including the first round of the playoffs, while the Bears have just a +30 point differential.

                                                                  The difference between these two teams is even bigger than point differential shows though, as the Bears needed a league leading +20 turnover margin to get to that point differential, while the Rams have a more modest +12 turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and teams that had great turnover margins in the regular season tend to not be able to keep that up in the post-season. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season.

                                                                  In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive, the Rams have a huge edge with a +5.49% first down rate differential, as opposed to -1.00% for the Bears, and a +0.95 yards per play differential, as opposed to -0.30 for the Bears. The Rams also played a tougher schedule, playing five games against remaining playoff teams, as opposed to just one for the Bears, and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Rams rank first and have about a 10-point edge over the 19th ranked Bears.

                                                                  The Rams have been underwhelming compared to how they barely earlier this season in recent weeks, but they haven’t been fully healthy with left tackle Alaric Jackson (1 game missed), right guard Kevin Dotson (3 games missed), safety Quentin Lake (7 games missed), and wide receiver Davante Adams (3 games missed) all missing time in recent weeks, after the Rams had minimal injuries early in the season. However, all four of those players are expected to play this week, with only Dotson questionable, and, overall, the Rams are very healthy for this point in the season. 

                                                                  The Bears, on the other hand, continue to be plagued by injuries as they have been all season. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed), wide receiver Rome Odunze (5 games missed), and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed) and Kyler Gordon (14 games missed) all have returned in recent weeks from significant absences, but linebacker TJ Edwards and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo went down for the season in last week’s win over the Packers, injuries that will likely hurt them against a much tougher opponent this week. 

                                                                  This line does suggest the Rams are the significantly better team, favoring them by 4 points on the road, but I don’t think this line is high enough, especially when considering that the Rams have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, are 47-39 ATS on the road since moving there in 2016. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but I will increase this bet if I get confirmation that Kevin Dotson will play and this line doesn’t move significantly.

                                                                  Update: Dotson is playing. I am upgrading this to a high confidence pick.

                                                                  Los Angeles Rams 34 Chicago Bears 24

                                                                  Pick against the spread: LA Rams -4

                                                                  Confidence: High

                                                                  San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

                                                                  stevenlourie 2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks, 2025 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks

                                                                  San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

                                                                  This is the third time these two divisional opponents have met this season. The 49ers opened the season with a 17-13 win in Seattle week 1, in which the 49ers won the first down rate battle by 0.73 and the yards per play battle by 5.51%. In week 18, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in San Francisco 13-3, in a game in which the Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 11.90% and the yards per play battle by 1.27. Common sense would suggest that the more recent of the two matchups between these teams holds more predictive value and it is true that when two teams that split the season series meet for a third time in the post-season the team who won the more recent matchup tends to win more often than not, but maybe not as often as you would think, as teams are just 14-9 in that spot and just 11-12 ATS.

                                                                  That alone isn’t a reason to pick the 49ers to cover, but I think this spread is a little inflated based on the recent matchup between these two teams, with the Seahawks favored by 7 points, after being favored by 2.5 points week 18. This game is in Seattle rather than San Francisco, but that much of a little movement is more than just the location change. The 49ers won’t have George Kittle for this game and the Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, but the 49ers also get back left tackle Trent Williams, who is much better than Cross and more important to this offense than Kittle, and Kittle was not 100% in the previous matchup either. On top of that, the 49ers are likely to get back wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, though the loss of starting safety Ji’Ayir Brown does hurt them. Overall, I have this line calculated at Seattle -6, so we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not nearly enough for them to be worth betting.

                                                                  Seattle Seahawks 20 San Francisco 49ers 14

                                                                  Pick against the spread: San Francisco +7

                                                                  Confidence: Low

                                                                  Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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                                                                  Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3)

                                                                  The Patriots enter this game with significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.36% vs. +1.93%) and yards per play differential (+1.10 vs. +0.48) compared to the Texans, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records. The Texans have faced a much tougher schedule, but, even when schedule is taken into account, the Patriots have about a 3-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. 

                                                                  A big reason for that is schedule adjusted efficiency weights offensive performance higher than defensive performance, because offensive performance tends to be more consistent week-to-week. The Texans have a big edge on defense, about 5.5 points, but the Patriots have an even bigger edge on offense, about 7 points, and that tends to be more predictive of future winning. On top of that, the Texans have the biggest injury in this game, as their top wide receiver Nico Collins is expected to be out due to concussion, while the Patriots are close to fully healthy. Given all of that, this line is a little short, favoring the Patriots at home by only 3 points. My calculated line is Houston -5.5. There isn’t quite enough line value here for the Patriots to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

                                                                  New England Patriots 21 Houston Texans 16

                                                                  Pick against the spread: New England -3

                                                                  Confidence: Low