Author: stevenlourie

Seattle Seahawks 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Seahawks made a franchise changing decision to trade quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. Wilson had been the Seahawks starting quarterback for ten seasons, made the Pro Bowl in all but one of those seasons, and led back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, including a victory in Super Bowl 48. However, the Seahawks didn’t make a conference championship in any of Wilson’s final seven seasons in Seattle and, after their first losing season in the Wilson era in 2021, with Wilson on the wrong side of 30, the Seahawks felt it was the right time to move on from him, with the team stuck in limbo and the Broncos willing to pay a steep price for acquire him, giving the Seahawks a package of two first round picks, two second round picks, and three players in return. The Seahawks looked like they were entering a full rebuild, but something unexpected happened. 

While Wilson struggled in Denver, proving the Seahawks moved on from him at the right time, Wilson’s former backup Geno Smith broke out. Smith was originally not even seen as the favorite to start in 2022, with many expecting it would be young developmental quarterback Drew Lock, who was acquired in the Russell Wilson trade, and then likely a quarterback from the 2023 NFL Draft if Lock couldn’t prove himself. Instead Smith made 49 starts over the next three seasons, completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions, while leading the Seahawks to a 27-22 record in those games. It was kind of a best of both worlds situation for the Seahawks, as they remained competitive in the short-term, while building for the long-term, with seven picks combined in the first two rounds of the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts.

However, none of those picks were a long-term quarterback of the future and, with Geno Smith heading into his age 35 season and the final year of his contract in 2025, the Seahawks were again at a crossroads. Smith had proven he could be a capable quarterback, but he never won a playoff game and it seemed unlikely he would be the quarterback that could get them back to the Super Bowl. On top of that, he was expecting a significant raise on his new extension, one that would carry him into his late 30s. Further working against Smith getting that extension from the Seahawks was the fact that they had moved on from long-time coach and one of Smith’s biggest supporters Pete Carroll last off-season and replaced him with a much younger coach in Mike Macdonald. 

Macdonald kept Smith for 2024, but this off-season the Seahawks decided to hit the reset button again at the quarterback position and sent Smith to his old coach Pete Carroll, now in Las Vegas, for a third round pick. The Seahawks then took the money they could have given to Smith on an extension and gave it to free agent quarterback Sam Darnold, who came to town on a 3-year, 100.5 million dollar deal. Darnold was once a bust as the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, spending his first seven seasons in the league with four different teams, but, like Geno Smith, he seemed to be a late bloomer when he broke out with that fourth team, the Minnesota Vikings, last season, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (102.5 QB rating).

Darnold is still only going into his age 28 season and, if he continues playing like he did last season, the Seahawks will have replaced Smith with a younger, better quarterback, while getting a relatively high draft pick in the process. However, there are reasons for concern that Darnold may not replicate his 2024 season in his new home. For one, Darnold is still a one-year wonder who, prior to last season, completed 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 56 interceptions in 56 career starts (78.3 QB rating). 

Much of Darnold’s previous struggles can be blamed on him being in some bad situations, particularly in New York and Carolina, where he made all but one of those 56 starts, but if the situation gets the blame for those struggles, it should also get some of the credit for Darnold’s breakout last season, as Darnold had a great coaching staff and supporting cast on his side in Minnesota. Now in Seattle, the situation probably won’t be as bad as it was in New York or Carolina, but it also probably won’t be nearly as good as it was in Minnesota and, as a result, Darnold could regress somewhat. 

The Seahawks also don’t seem totally sold on Darnold either, hedging their bet by using the third round pick they received from the Raiders on Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. Milroe enters the league very raw and might spend his rookie season as the third string quarterback, with the now veteran Drew Lock (78.8 career QB rating in 28 starts) being brought back this off-season after one-year with the Giants, but Milroe is a great athlete with a strong arm who could develop into a starter long-term and Darnold’s contract only guarantees him 37.5 million, making it easy for the Seahawks to move on at any point after this season if he doesn’t live up to his big price tag. Darnold definitely elevates the ceiling of this quarterback room, compared to Geno Smith, but he also lowers the floor significantly.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Trading away Geno Smith and replacing him with Sam Darnold was not the only franchise changing trade the Seahawks made this off-season, as they opted not to extend talented receiver DK Metcalf ahead of the final year of his contract this off-season and instead traded him to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a second round pick, giving themselves another additional premium draft pick. Metcalf had another solid season for the Seahawks in 2024, with a 66/992/5 slash line on 108 targets, a 74.3 PFF grade (33rd among wide receivers), and 1.81 yards per route run (38th among wide receivers), but he wanted upwards of 30 million annually on his next contract and the Seahawks have another talented receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will need a long-term extension soon as well. 

The Seahawks could have afforded to keep both, but they fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb for being too pass heavy last season (7th in pass attempts, 29th in rush attempts last season) and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, who prefers a more balanced attack, and paying top dollar to two wide receivers did not line up with their new offensive philosophy. The Seahawks instead signed veteran Cooper Kupp to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal and picked up an extra high draft pick in the process, allowing them to focus money and draft capital on other parts of the roster.

A few years ago, signing Kupp would have been a huge boost to any offense, as Kupp won the receiving triple crown with the Rams in 2021, totaling a 145/1947/16 slash line, averaging 3.12 yards per route run (1st among wide receivers), and receiving a 92.3 PFF grade (2nd among wide receivers). Kupp was on his way to a similar season in 2022, averaging 2.40 yards per route run (8th among wide receivers) and posting a 86.3 PFF grade (7th among wide receivers), but his season lasted just nine games due to injury. 

In 2023 and 2024, Kupp was solid, but did not reach the heights he reached in 2021 and 2022, with yards per route run averages of 1.86 and 1.99 respectively and PFF grades of 72.4 and 71.2 respectively, while again missing more time with injury, limited to 12 games each of those two seasons. Perhaps most concerningly, Kupp seemed to be phased out of the offense down the stretch last season, with just a 10/143/0 slash line in his final five games, including two post-season games, and he now heads into his age 32 season.

Kupp is already clearly on the decline, but age 31 to age 32 is the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability. Overall, a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. Kupp’s recent injury history doesn’t help matters. The Seahawks are obviously not getting the best of Cooper Kupp and there is a good chance he drops off further and/or misses significant time with injury, so he figures to be a clear downgrade from the much younger, healthier Metcalf.

The Seahawks also moved on from Tyler Lockett, who was a solid #3 receiver last season with a 49/600/2 slash line, but who was going into his age 33 season owed 17 million, making him an easy cap casualty this off-season. The Seahawks don’t have a great option to replace him though. They signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and he figures to be the favorite for the #3 receiver job. He has been decent, but unspectacular throughout his 7-year career, averaging a slash line of 29/509/3 per season with 1.25 yards per route run and now he heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are likely behind him. 

As far as #3 receivers go, Lockett was pretty good last season, so Valdes-Scantling figures to be a downgrade. Behind Valdes-Scantling, the Seahawks have Jake Bobo, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has averaged just 1.01 yards per route run in limited action thus far in his career, as well as 5th and 7th round rookies Tory Horton and Ricky White, neither of whom are likely to make a significant impact in year one, leaving Valdes-Scantling as the likely #3 receiver, largely by default.

With the rest of the wide receiver room looking underwhelming, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be the clear #1 receiver. A first round pick in 2023, Smith-Njigba had a decent rookie year with a 63/628/4 slash line on 93 targets and 1.32 yards per route run and then he took a big step forward in a bigger role in 2024 with a 100/1130/6 slash line on 137 targets and 1.81 yards per route run. Smith Njigba will face more double teams with Metcalf gone and Darnold could prove to be a downgrade under center, so he might not be as efficient as he was a year ago, and, with this offense likely to run the ball more, he might not even see that many more targets, but he also has the talent to take another step forward in his third season in the league, which could help him beat those double teams and help him get to balls that may be less accurate than they were last season. 

The Seahawks will also likely lean on their tight ends more this season than they did in 2024. Noah Fant led Seahawks tight ends with a 48/500/1 slash line and 64 targets, but was overall underwhelming. That has largely been the case for him since he arrived in Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade. Fant was a first round pick by the Broncos in 2019 and showed some promise early in his career, but he hasn’t lived up to that promise since arriving in Seattle, averaging just a 43/467/2 slash line and 1.32 yards per route run in three seasons with the Seahawks. 

Now going into his age 28 season, it is very likely Fant is who he is at this stage of his career, which, in addition to the Seahawks lack of wide receiver depth, is why the Seahawks opted to add a higher upside tight end option early in the draft, taking Miami’s Elijah Arroyo in the second round. Arroyo may spend his rookie season behind Fant on the depth chart, but the Seahawks figure to use two tight end sets somewhat frequently to offset their lack of depth at wide receiver and, with Fant set to hit free agency next off-season, Arroyo looks like the future starter at tight end for the Seahawks. 

The Seahawks also have AJ Barner, a 2024 4th round pick who showed some promise as a rookie, playing 502 snaps in total, but he was more of a blocker than a pass catcher (260 blocking snaps, 242 routes run) and seems likely to enter 2025 as the third tight end on the depth chart. He could still have some upside going forward and his 1.13 yards per route run wasn’t bad for a rookie, but he is unlikely to have a big role in this passing game this season, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this remade Seahawks receiving corps will almost definitely be worse than it was a year ago and is not the same caliber of receiving corps as Sam Darnold had in Minnesota.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Seahawks’ strategy of changing quarterbacks, downgrading their receiving corps, saving money, and accumulating extra draft picks made some sense if they had used the extra resources to significantly address what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season (26th in pass blocking grade, 24th in run blocking grade on PFF), but the Seahawks didn’t really do that. They didn’t sign a single starting caliber offensive lineman in free agency and mostly rolled their cap savings into next off-season, as they rank just 28th in average annual value of their roster, a metric heavily correlated to winning percentage. The Seahawks did use their first round pick on North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel, a talented guard prospect, but they really needed to use multiple early draft picks on the offensive line, given the state their offensive line was in going into the draft, and they didn’t.

Zabel looks like a future above average starter, but he is just a rookie and it’s possible he is not even an upgrade on departed veteran Laken Tomlinson, who had a decent, but unspectacular 62.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at left guard last season. Center Olusegun Oluwatimi was decent in 8 starts last season with a 64.2 PFF grade, but it might be wishful thinking to expect the 2023 5th round pick to take a step forward in his third season in the league and he might not even be able to translate his decent play in a limited role last season into a season-long role. Connor Williams, who had a 62.9 PFF grade in 9 starts at center last season, is retired, so if Oluwatimi struggles or misses any time with injury, the Seahawks are left with Jalen Sundell, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 53 snaps as a rookie, as the alternative.

Right guard saw three different players make starts in 2024, Anthony Bradford (10 starts), Sataoa Laumea (6 starts), and Christian Haynes (1 start) and all three struggled mightily with PFF grades of 48.3, 37.9, and 48.5. All three are relatively young, selected in the 4th round in 2023, the 6th round in 2024, and the 3rd round in 2024 respectively, but any of the three would have to take a big step forward to even be a decent starter in 2025 and that seems unlikely. Sixth round rookie Bryce Cabeldue could also be in the mix for the starting right guard job at some point this season, but that says more about the state of the position than anything positive about Cabeldue, who would almost definitely struggle in a significant rookie year role. 

Bradford, who also struggled with a 51.7 PFF grade in 11 starts as a rookie in 2023 before continuing to struggle last season, is probably the favorite for the starting right guard job and seems likely to continue struggling. Along with the potential of the rookie Zabel, probably the biggest reason to be optimistic this offensive line can be at least somewhat better this year than a year ago is the potential for better health from right tackle Abraham Lucas, who missed 10 games last season, leaving Stone Forysthe and Mike Jerrell, who finished with PFF grades of 43.1 and 46.4 respectively, to start in his absence. 

Lucas also missed 11 games in 2023 and has had PFF grades of just 53.1 and 61.9 over the past two seasons respectively, so the potential for him to struggle and/or miss significant time with injury is there, but the 2022 3rd round pick did have a solid 68.5 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie, so the upside is at least there as well. If Lucas misses more time, the Seahawks would likely turn to either Jerrell, a 2024 6th round pick, or veteran Josh Jones, a career backup who has made 24 starts in five seasons in the league, while finishing below 50 on PFF in four of those five seasons. Both would likely struggle if forced into significant action.

The saving grace of this offensive line is left tackle Charles Cross, the 9th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, who has developed into one of the better left tackles in the league. Cross has started 48 games in three seasons in the league, has seen his PFF grade improve from 63.7 to 67.6 to 82.5 last season, and is still only going into his age 25 season, so he has a good chance to continue playing at the level he played at last season, or potentially even a higher level, for years to come. 

However, the flip side of that is the Seahawks’ offensive line was horrendous last season even with Cross having a big year, so if he happens to regress even somewhat or, even worse, to miss some time with injury, the Seahawks would be in big trouble upfront. Overall, this offensive line looks likely to be a big problem, especially a concern since Sam Darnold had the third longest time to throw in the league last season and broke out in large part because of that, finishing second in the NFL only behind Lamar Jackson with 25 passing touchdowns on dropbacks of longer than 2.5 seconds.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Seahawks are planning on running more this season, after ranking just 29th in rushing attempts last season. The Seahawks did finish with a middle of the pack 4.25 yards per carry, 17th in the NFL, but that gets a lot worse when you see their top-2 backs, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, averaged just 3.75 yards per carry and 4.21 yards per carry respectively. The offensive line was primarily to blame though, as Walker and Charbonnet finished 3rd and 17th respectively among running backs on PFF in rushing grade and averaged 3.05 yards per carry after contact and 3.35 yards per carry after contact respectively, good for 23rd and 10th respectively among eligible running backs. In terms of elusive rating, which also factors in missed tackles, both were even better, ranking 3rd and 12th at 113.5 and 81.3 respectively. 

A second round pick in 2022, Walker has a YPC average of 4.21 on 600 career carries, with 3.04 yards per carry after contact, and a 89.2 elusive rating, while Charbonnet, selected in the second round in 2023, has a career 4.24 YPC average on 243 carries, with 3.18 yards per carry after contact and a 64.9 elusive rating. Walker and Charbonnet saw similar amounts of carries last season, with 153 and 135 respectively, but that is only because Walker missed essentially six games with injury, with Charbonnet having 91 carries in those 6 games and just 44 in his other 11 games. In games where both played, Walker averaged 13.9 carries to just 4.0 for Charbonnet. Walker also missed two games in each of his first two seasons in the league, but, unless he misses significant time like he did last season, I would expect Walker and Charbonnet to have a similar carry split as 2023, when Walker had 219 carries to Charbonnet’s 108, even with Walker missing two games.

Both Walker and Charbonnet were active in the passing game last season, with Walker finishing with a 46/299/1 slash line and 1.33 yards per route run on 53 targets and Charbonnet finishing with a 42/340/1 slash line and 1.08 yards per route run on 52 targets. Like with carries, I expect Walker to have a bigger split of the running back targets this season, as long as he can stay healthy and, with less wide receiver talent than a year ago, it’s possible running backs will be a bigger part of the passing game, so Walker has the potential for a pretty big receiving year out of the backfield, while Charbonnet should also have a decent amount of pass game opportunities. 

Walker also averaged 1.30 yards per route run in 2023 and, while Charbonnet only averaged 0.76 yards per route run as a rookie in 2023, he was productive in the passing game in college, so it’s not a surprise he took a step forward in that aspect in 2024. I should also note that Charbonnet had an excellent season as a pass blocker last season, allowing just 7 pressures on 100 pass block snaps, the same amount of allowed pressures as Walker, who only pass blocked 44 times.

Kenny McIntosh, a 2023 7th round pick, seems likely to be the third back again. He had an impressive 5.55 YPC average last season, but, even with Walker missing significant time, he only finished with 31 carries on the season, which were the first carries of his career. I don’t expect that to change much this season, so, even on an offense that figures to run the ball more this season, McIntosh is an afterthought. If either Walker or Charbonnet miss significant time, the other back figures to handle the vast majority of the work, with McIntosh seeing just a few carries here and there when Walker or Charbonnet need a breather. Overall, this is a deep backfield, with two running backs capable of carrying the load and making guys miss, but they might not have the production to match their talent if the offensive line doesn’t improve significantly.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Seahawks made one significant signing on defense this off-season, giving ex-Cowboys edge defender DeMarcus Lawrence a 3-year, 32.5 million dollar deal to replace Dre’Mont Jones, who was a cap casualty ahead of 16.51 million non-guaranteed in 2025. Jones was a bust of a free agent signing two off-season ago and it wouldn’t be hard for Lawrence to be an upgrade, after Jones finished with just a 54.3 PFF grade across 617 snaps last season, but Lawrence definitely comes with a lot of risk. 

Prior to last season, Lawrence had consistently been one of the best edge defenders in the league for several years, finishing above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2017-2023, including six seasons above 80 and three seasons above 90. He primarily excelled as a run defender, but also was a productive pass rusher as well, totaling 49.5 sacks, 61 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 105 games across that stretch. 

However, Lawrence was limited to 167 snaps in four games by injury last season and played poorly in limited action when on the field, with just a 56.8 PFF grade. It’s possible Lawrence could bounce back in a significant way if he is healthier in 2025, but Lawrence is also going into his age 33 season, so his best days are likely behind him. It seems likely Lawrence has at least some solid play left in the tank and the contract the Seahawks got him on is very reasonable all things considered, but he comes with a lot of risk, in addition to a lot of potential reward. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be better than Jones though, assuming he doesn’t suffer another major injury.

The Seahawks are also hoping for a healthier season out of fellow edge defender Uchenna Nwosu. Nwosu has been a solid edge defender throughout his 7-year career, finishing with PFF grades in the 60s and 70s in every season, but he was limited to just 190 snaps in 6 games last season, after playing just 283 snaps in 6 games the prior season. Nwosu had a 72.6 PFF grade across 952 snaps in 2022, totaling 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to be an impact player if he can stay healthy, but he also comes with a lot of risk, given how much time he has missed over the past two seasons.

If Lawrence and Nwosu stay healthy and have solid seasons, the Seahawks should have a solid trio of edge defenders. Those might be big ifs, but Boye Mafe, their top returning edge defender is much less of a question mark. A second round pick in 2022, Mafe has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 64.6 PFF grade as a rookie to a 73.9 PFF grade in his second season in 2023 to a 75.2 PFF grade last season and he should remain at least a solid starter in 2025. Also a solid run defender, Mafe has compiled 15 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher in 31 games over the past two seasons.

If any of the Seahawks’ top-3 edge defenders miss time with injury, the Seahawks will push Derick Hall into a bigger role, similar to last season when he played 673 snaps. A 2023 second round pick, Hall struggled as a rookie with a 44.4 PFF grade across 308 snaps. He continued to struggle against the run in his second season in the league, but he took a big step forward as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate, so Hall should at least have a role as a situational pass rusher, even if everyone is healthy, and he may have further untapped upside as a run defender, still only going into his third season in the league. The Seahawks probably don’t have any elite edge defenders, but this is a deep position group that has the potential to be very effective if everyone stays healthy.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Seahawks didn’t make any significant additions at the interior defender position but they didn’t necessarily need to make any. Leonard Williams is arguably the best player on their entire defense and was well worth the second round pick and 3-year, 64.5 million dollar extension the Seahawks gave up to acquire him in the middle of the 2023 season, especially since the Seahawks have accumulated so much extra draft capital in recent years. 

Williams flourished in his first full season in Seattle, posting a career high 87.1 PFF grade across 750 snaps, playing the run well and adding 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, but that wasn’t totally out of the ordinary for him, as he has exceeded a 70 grade on PFF in all ten seasons in the league, while averaging 823 snaps per season and accumulating 54.5 sacks, 155 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 158 games, with just 6 games missed. He is now going into his age 31 season, so it’s unlikely he is able to quite repeat the best season of his career at his age, but he also hasn’t shown any signs of decline, he’s been remarkably durable throughout his career, and even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago he should still remain a well above average every down starter.

Fellow veteran Jarran Reed played the second most snaps at the position last season and had a pretty solid season himself, posting a 70.8 PFF grade across 679 snaps and particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, but, like Williams, that was a career best year, and he is even older, now going into his age 33 season. Reed has always been a solid pass rusher throughout his career, with 38.5 sacks, 77 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 139 career games, but he has also pretty consistently struggled against the run, which is why he never had a 70+ overall grade from PFF until his ninth season in the league in 2024. He will likely regress in 2024 and could drop off completely, given his age.

Luckily, the Seahawks do have a 2024 first round pick Byron Murphy who is likely ready to take a step forward in his second season in the league. Murphy was mediocre as a rookie, with a 57.8 PFF grade across 457 snaps, but he definitely has the potential to give the Seahawks a lot more this season, even if that’s not a guarantee. I would expect him to take over a starting role next to Williams, with Reed being more of a situational pass rusher this season.

Depth outside of the Seahawks’ top-3 interior defenders is a question mark. Jonathan Hankins played 389 snaps last season, but was terrible with a 35.9 PFF grade. Hankins was a solid player in his prime, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, including three seasons below 50, and, now heading into his age 33 season, it is unlikely he gets any better. He may still have to play a significant reserve role though, as the Seahawks’ alternatives are sparingly used holdovers Mike Morris and Quinton Bohanna, as well as 5th round rookie Rylie Mills.

Morris, a 2023 5th round pick, has played just 96 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, while Bohanna has struggled across 605 snaps in four seasons in the league with four teams since going undrafted in 2021, including just 6 snaps for the Seahawks last season. Depth might not be a big concern because Leonard Williams almost never comes off the field, but if any of their top-3 interior defenders miss time with injury, the Seahawks would be forced to play someone in a significant role who would almost definitely struggle in that role. The Seahawks’ interior defender group is talented, but top heavy.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Seahawks’ linebacking corps remains pretty much the same as it was to end last season, but their linebacking corps underwent some big chances during the season last year. They started with veterans Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dobson as their top-2 linebackers, with 4th round rookie Tyrice Knight as their top reserve, but then they traded Baker mid-season along with a draft pick swap for fellow veteran and pending free agent Ernest Jones, who they kept on a 3-year, 28.5 million dollar extension. The Seahawks then released Dobson mid-season and replaced him in the starting lineup with Knight, who played 426 snaps in eight games from week 11 on, after playing just 124 snaps to that point in the season.

Knight played pretty well for a rookie, not only receiving a solid 65.4 PFF grade overall, but receiving run defense and pass coverage grades above 60, showing himself to be a well-rounded player capable of playing every down. Knight should remain a capable every down player in 2025, possibly with the potential to be even better, though it’s fair to question how high the upside of the former fourth round pick is. Jones, on the other hand, actually was underwhelming with a 59.4 PFF grade across 667 snaps in 10 games after being acquired, excelling against the run, but struggling mightily in coverage.

However, receiving a grade under 60 isn’t the norm for Jones, who had a 62.5 PFF grade in six games with the Titans before being traded and now has finished above 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons, including a career best 82.1 PFF grade in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, Jones should remain at least a capable every down player with the upside for more if he can find his 2023 form. He’s always been a better run defender than coverage linebacker, with PFF grades against the run of 78.8, 90.0, and 73.6 over the past three seasons, but, at his best, he is also solid in coverage.

Knight and Jones are a solid starting duo, but their depth behind them is questionable. Drake Thomas, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has struggled across just 42 career defensive snaps, is probably their top reserve, with all of their other options being former undrafted free agents who have never played a defensive snap in the NFL and who might not make the final roster, Josh Ross, Michael Dowell, and Patrick O’Connell. If Jones or Knight miss significant time with injury, the Seahawks could be in some trouble.

Grade: B-

Secondary

To mask some of their lack of depth at linebacker, the Seahawks may use three safeties together frequently in sub packages. With five picks scheduled for the first three rounds, the Seahawks packaged a second round pick and a third round pick to move up to the top of the second round to take safety Nick Emmanwori, a projected first round pick and a player who is capable of lining up in multiple spots, including linebacker. Emmanwori probably won’t start for the Seahawks as a rookie, but he could still have a significant role and he provides insurance for starting safety Coby Bryant, a surprise breakout candidate last season who could regress this season and also a free agent next off-season.

Bryant, a 2022 4th round pick, struggled mightily in his first two seasons in the league, primarily at cornerback, with a 58.9 PFF grade across 757 snaps as a rookie and a 34.0 PFF grade across 147 snaps in his second season in the league, before breaking out with a 72.8 PFF grade across 785 snaps in 2024, primarily at safety. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter at his new position, but there is also some potential for regression.

Bryant will start opposite Julian Love, who is one of the Seahawks’ better defensive players. A 4th round pick in 2019, Love was inconsistent early in his career, but he has developed into an above average starter over the past three seasons, while getting better in every season, going from a 70.0 PFF grade in 2022 to a 72.8 PFF grade in 2023 to a career best 81.2 PFF grade in 2024. Love might not be quite as good again in 2025, but he is still only in his age 27 season and should remain at least an above average starter even if he regresses a little bit.

Along with the talented Love, the Seahawks also have a pair of talented cornerbacks, Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen. Witherspoon was the 5th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and has gotten off to a great start to his career, with a 84.1 PFF grade across 883 snaps as a rookie and a 76.1 PFF grade across 1,103 snaps last season. Still only going into his age 25 season, Witherspoon should continue playing at a high level and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had his best season yet in 2025. Woolen, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 71.6, 67.1, and 67.9 in three seasons in the league (46 starts) since being drafted in the 5th round in 2022. Only in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Seahawks have questionable depth behind Witherspoon and Woolen though, another reason why the Seahawks could frequently use three safeties together in sub packages. Josh Jobe will probably nominally be their third cornerback, despite struggling with a 51.0 PFF grade across 443 snaps last season, after struggling with a 40.8 PFF grade across 240. snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2023. Even as the nominal third cornerback, he could see fewer snaps than Emmanwori. Jobe’s biggest competition for the third cornerback job is Nehemiah Prichett, a 2024 5th round pick who struggled mightily with a 29.5 PFF grade across 151 snaps as a rookie. 

Jobe is probably better than Prichett by default and this is an area of concern if either Woolen or Witherspoon suffer a significant injury. The Seahawks’ secondary is led by a trio of talented players in Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, and Julian Love and they have Coby Bryant, who could continue being a solid starter in his second season at his new position, and Nick Emmanwori, a second round pick who easily could have gone in the first, but depth is somewhat of a concern for the Seahawks in the secondary, especially if any of their top players misses significant time with injury.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Jason Myers is expected to be the Seahawks’ kicker for the 8th straight season. The 10-year veteran has been highly inconsistent throughout his career, alternating seasons of above and below average points above replacement metrics throughout his career, and has averaged out to be a slightly above average kicker with just 10.95 points above average total in 10 seasons in the league. His best season came in 2020, when he missed just four kicks all season, all of which were extra points, and totaled 13.64 points above average, but he followed that up with a career worst season in 2021, when he went just 17 of 23 on field goals, missed another 3 extra points, and had 7.30 points below average. Last season was a solid one for him, with 4.54 points above average, but based on his history, it is far from a guarantee that he can replicate that in 2025.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Seahawks were a solid team last season, winning 10 games and finishing slightly above average in first down rate differential (+0.96%) and yards per play differential (+0.17). Their defense should remain a solid unit, but their offense has a lot of question marks after downgrading their receiving corps and replacing Geno Smith with Sam Darnold. Darnold raises the ceiling at the quarterback position, but also significantly lowers their floor and he enters a situation that is significantly worse than the one he had in Minnesota, particularly on the offensive line, but also in terms of his coaching staff and receiving corps. This team has a wide range of potential outcomes, but ultimately it is more likely they win fewer games than more games, as compared with a year ago.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

When Jonathan Gannon took over as the Cardinals’ head coach following the 2022 season, the Cardinals were arguably in the worst situation in the NFL. The Cardinals had the oldest roster in the NFL in 2022 and ranked 8th in roster average annual salary, which tends to correlate heavily with winning percentage, but they went just 4-13. Going into 2023, the Cardinals were in need of a major teardown and rebuild and, one of their few young bright spots, quarterback Kyler Murray, was set to miss the first half of the season after tearing his ACL late in 2022.

With their average age going all the way down to 31st in the NFL and their roster average annual value also falling to 27th, the Cardinals’ 2023 season started about as expected, as they lost eight of their first nine games, but they improved significantly when Murray returned, surprisingly going 3-5 down the stretch and showing promise going into the future. The Cardinals had two first round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, but didn’t do much in free agency, leaving them with a roster average annual value that still ranked just 28th, so expectations were still not high going into 2024.

However, the Cardinals managed to exceed expectations for the second straight season, with Jonathan Gannon constantly getting the most out of his players again. They fell short of the post-season at 8-9, but were better than that suggests in terms of first down rate differential at +1.13% and yards per play differential at +0.31, led by an offense that ranked 7th in both first down rate and yards per play. Now going into 2025, the Cardinals were aggressive this off-season, particularly when it came to making much needed upgrades to their defense and, as a result, they now rank 10th in roster average annual value and look like they could be a playoff team, especially if Gannon continues to coach at a high level.

Murray was a big part of the Cardinals’ offensive success last season, completing 68.8% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while averaging 7.33 YPC with 5 touchdowns on 78 carries. Overall, he ranked 12th among quarterbacks with a 82.1 PFF grade. That’s largely in line with how he has played throughout his career, completing 67.1% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 115 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while averaging 6.00 YPC on 31 touchdowns on 503 carries, with a PFF grade above 80 in three of six seasons in the league. He’s also not really injury prone, only missing four games in his career aside from the time missed with a torn ACL, which he seems to be fully recovered from. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Cardinals also improved the backup quarterback situation this off-season in case Murray does happen to miss time, signing Jacoby Brissett, who has started 53 games in nine seasons in the league, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. The Cardinals would be in trouble if he had to start for an extended period of time, but you could say the same thing about most teams if their starting quarterback got hurt and, all things considered, having Brissett as your backup is better than most teams’ quarterback situations. If he needs to make a couple spot starts, it won’t be the end of the Cardinals’ playoff chances.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the key players who has broken out in the past couple years to accelerate the Cardinals’ rebuild is tight end Trey McBride. A second round pick in 2022, McBride didn’t do much as a rookie, with a 29/265/1 slash line and 0.84 yards per route run, and he was off to a similarly slow start to the 2023 season, but he suddenly broke out down the stretch when Murray got healthy, as McBride had a 55/538/2 slash line in the final eight games of the season with Murray under center, which extrapolates to 117/1143/4 over 17 games. 

McBride then continued that into 2024, finishing with a 111/1146/2 slash line in 16 games. In terms of yards per route run, McBride ranked 3rd among tight ends in 2024 with 2.14 and his 86.8 PFF grade ranked 2nd among tight ends. The Cardinals extended him on a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the second highest paid tight end in the league, but I think he is still underpaid as the tight end position is underpaid overall. Think about it this way, McBride’s receiving yardage last season would have been 10th among wide receivers, but his average annual salary would rank just 21st among wide receivers and he isn’t just a good receiver, as he also holds his own as a blocker as well.

One thing that could take this offense to the next level would be a breakout season from Marvin Harrison, who they selected 4th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft because of his massive upside. Harrison wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he wasn’t quite as good as expected, with a 62/885/8 slash line on 116 targets with a 1.63 yards per route run average. However, he still has a massive upside and I would be surprised if he didn’t at least take somewhat of a step forward in 2025, with a strong possibility that he takes a big step forward.

Michael Wilson remains the primary wide receiver opposite Harrison, which makes him a distant third in the pecking order. Wilson was a third round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, with a 38/565/3 slash line and 1.36 yards per route run on just 58 targets, but he took a step back in a bigger role in 2024, seeing his targets increase to 71, but still producing around the same level, with a 47/548/4 slash line, and seeing his yards per route run average drop to 1.09. Wilson is still only in his age 25 season and could bounce back to his rookie year efficiency or possibly even have his most efficient year yet in his third season in the league in 2025, but he won’t be a big part of this offense unless McBride or Harrison suffer a significant injury. 

Greg Dortch was the third wide receiver last season and he was underwhelming with a 37/342/3 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average, which is in line with the 6-year veteran’s career average of 1.22 yards per route run, but he is likely to remain in that role for another season, without a better option being added this off-season. His primary competition for the job will be veteran Zay Jones, who once was a solid receiver, with a 47/546/1 slash line and 1.38 yards per route run in 2021 and a 82/823/5 slash line and 1.44 yards per route run in 2022, but he has seen his yards per route run average drop to 1.05 in 2023 and 0.50 in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season, so his best days are likely behind him. He figures to remain the #4 wide receiver at best for another season.

Behind McBride at tight end, Tip Reiman (451 snaps) and Elijah Higgins (412 snaps) saw roles last season. Both were decent blockers, but Higgins was by far the better of the two as a receiver, with 1.01 yards per route run, as opposed to 0.34 for Reiman, leading to Higgins finishing with a 61.9 PFF grade overall, as opposed to 49.3 for Reiman. Reiman might be the favorite for the #2 tight end job this season though, as he was only rookie last season and, as a former third round pick, he has the higher upside of the two options. Higgins, a 2023 6th round pick who also had a 63.6 PFF grade on 191 snaps as a rookie, will probably continue seeing a situational role either way, but Reiman will likely play more snaps than he does. This is a top heavy receiving corps, led by Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, but this group could be better than a year ago, if Harrison takes a step forward and/or if Michael Wilson bounces back from an underwhelming second season in the league. 

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Another young player who has accelerated the Cardinals’ rebuild is Paris Johnson. The 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnson had a nondescript rookie year with a 60.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at right tackle, before breaking out at left tackle in 2024, with a 80.8 PFF grade in 14 starts. Johnson is technically a one-year wonder, but he entered the league with a huge upside, so there is a good chance he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an elite left tackle going forward and it’s also possible he still has further untapped upside, still only going into his age 24 season. I expect another strong season from him.

The rest of this offensive line is basically the same as a year ago, when they ranked 4th on PFF in pass block grade and 13th in run block grade. Left guard Evan Brown and center Hjalte Froholdt started all 17 games last season and will remain at those spots in 2025. Brown was decent, but unspectacular with a 65.9 PFF grade and I expect more of the same from him. Brown is going into his age 29 season and has mostly been a capable starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 66.8, 64.8, and 55.5 in the three seasons prior to last, while making 57 total starts over that 4-year period.

For Froholdt, his 76.1 PFF grade in 2024 was a career best by a pretty wide margin. A 2019 4th round pick, Froholdt was a late bloomer, playing just 61 snaps in three and a half seasons before taking over a starting role until midway through his fourth season in the league, when he finished with a 61.4 PFF grade in 6 starts with the Browns. The Cardinals took a chance on him as a free agent and it has paid off, as he continued that decent play into his first full season as a starter in 2023, when he had a 64.1 PFF grade in 17 starts, before taking a big step forward in 2024. It’s very possible Froholdt won’t replicate the best year of his career again in 2025, but he should at least be a reliable starting center, with the upside to continue being an above average starter if he has permanently turned a corner.

Unlike at left guard and center, the Cardinals had significant injury issues at right guard and right tackle last season, where expected starters Will Hernandez and Jonah Williams played well with PFF grades of 69.3 and 70.7 respectively, but were limited to just 5 starts and 6 starts respectively by injury. Hernandez was replaced by career backup Trystan Colon, who played pretty well with a 71.0 PFF grade across 386 snaps, but was still benched down the stretch for third round rookie Isaiah Adams, who was mediocre with a 58.4 PFF grade across 462 snaps. 

Hernandez and Colon were not retained this off-season, so Adams will remain the starter, despite his underwhelming performance down the stretch. He could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and the Cardinals are taking a risk by not having a good alternative on the roster, with their top reserve guard likely being Royce Newman, a 2021 4th round pick who made 24 starts for the Packers from 2021-2023, but who finished below 60 on PFF in all three of those seasons, before getting waived last off-season and spending 2024 in Tampa, where he played just three snaps.

At right tackle, Williams was replaced by the seemingly ageless Kelvin Beachum, who performed decently with a 64.1 PFF grade in 12 starts. A 13-year veteran, Beachum has never finished below 60 on PFF for a season and, while his days as a full-time starter are likely over, heading into his age 36 season, Beachum is still good depth behind Williams, who the Cardinals are hoping to get a healthier season out of. 

Williams has missed at least six games with injury in three of six seasons in the league, but he has generally played well when healthy, finishing above 60 on PFF in all but one season, with three seasons above 70. Still only in his age 28 season, the former first round pick of the Bengals has obvious upside if healthy, but it is probably a good thing the Cardinals have a solid insurance option behind him in Kelvin Beachum, given Williams’ injury history. The Cardinals’ offensive line is middling overall outside of left tackle Paris Johnson, but Paris Johnson significantly elevates the overall grade of the group by himself.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Cardinals’ running game was the most effective part of their offense last season, ranking second in the NFL with 5.29 YPC. Kyler Murray was a big part of the reason for the Cardinals’ success on the ground, not only averaging 7.33 YPC himself, but also freeing up space for running backs with his dual threat ability, but featured running back James Conner also had a great season, rushing for 1,094 yards and 8 touchdowns on 236 carries (4.64 YPC), while receiving a 90.4 grade on PFF, 5th best among running backs.

Conner is going into his age 30 season in 2025 with 1,642 career touches, so he’s right around where running backs start to drop off significantly, but he also has arguably had the best two seasons of his career in his last two seasons, exceeding 1000 yards rushing in both seasons for the only two times in his career, while averaging 4.81 YPC on a combined 444 carries, as opposed to 4.18 YPC in his first six seasons in the league. Conner also had a 47/414/1 slash line and 1.54 yards per route run last season and has a 1.19 yards per route run average for his career. I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good again in 2025, given his age, but he still has a good chance to remain at least a solid lead back.

With Conner getting up there in age, the Cardinals used a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Trey Benson with the intention of having him give Conner more regular rest in the short-term and potentially taking over for him as the starter in the long-term. Benson was decent as a rookie, averaging 4.62YPC, but he didn’t have much of a role, managing just 63 carries in 13 games. Now in his second season in the league with Conner being another year older, I would expect Benson’s role to grow and he has the talent to do well in that expanded role. 

Emari Demercado was their primary backup in passing situations last season and he could remain in that role, even if Benson has an expanded role. Demercado, a 2023 undrafted free agent, averaged 1.11 yards per route run last season after only averaging 0.73 yards per route run as a rookie. Demercado also averaged 9.29 yards per carry last season, but it came on just 24 carries, mostly against defenses that were expecting the run. Conner will remain the lead back and Benson will have a big role as the backup, but Demercado could remain involved in a situational role as well.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While the Cardinals’ offense is almost identical to last season, when they were a well above average unit, their defense looks much different than a year ago, a good thing, as the Cardinals finished 23rd in yards per play allowed and 29th first down rate allowed. Their biggest single addition on defense this off-season probably edge defender Josh Sweat, who they signed to a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal. Sweat has finished above 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in five straight seasons, totaling 39 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate in 79 games over that stretch, while also mostly playing solid run defense. Still only going into his age 28 season, he should continue playing at that level into 2025. He was a great value and should be a big upgrade for the Cardinals on the edge.

The Cardinals also used a third round pick on Oregon’s Jordan Burch and are getting 2023 second round pick BJ Olujari back from a torn ACL that cost him all of last season, after he flashed potential with a 64.8 PFF grade across 409 snaps and a 12.4% pressure rate as a rookie. Sweat, Burch, and Olujari are being added to a position group that attempted to deal with their lack of talent last season by using a heavy rotation, with seven players playing at least 150 snaps, but only one of them playing more than 300 snaps. 

That one player is Zaven Collins, who should continue having a role, even in a more talented position group. A first round pick in 2021, Collins began his career as an inside linebacker, but has been better off since switching to the edge over the past two seasons, finishing with a 72.1 PFF grade across 637 snaps in 2023 and a 72.0 PFF grade across 600 snaps in 2024, totaling 8.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 34 games, while particularly playing well against the run, including a 85.4 run defense grade in 2024 that was 4th best in the league among edge defender. Still only in his age 26 season, Collins should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and should still have a role, particularly in base packages as a run stuffer.

The Cardinals should also get more out of Baron Browning than they did a year ago, as the only reason he just played 232 snaps for the Cardinals last season is because they traded for him mid-season and he played just eight games as a result. Browning isn’t much of a run defender, but he has 11.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in 37 games while averaging 464 snaps per season over the past three seasons and will continue having a rotational role, after being kept on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal this off-season. Xavier Thomas, a 2024 5th round pick, is the only other holdover remaining on the roster from a year ago, but he struggled mightily with a 39.4 PFF grade across 208 snaps and could ultimately find himself on the outside looking in for a final roster spot in what is a much deeper position group this season.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Cardinals also made several additions at the interior defender position, much needed because their top-3 interior defenders in terms of snap count last season were LJ Collier (588 snaps), Dante Stills (532 snaps), and Roy Lopez (464 snaps), who finished with PFF grades of 49.2, 57.0, and 54.9 respectively. In free agency, the Cardinals added Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell on contracts of 2 years, 29 million and 1 year, 5.5 million respectively.

Tomlinson is going into his age 31 season and is coming off back-to-back down seasons, with PFF grades of 63.3 and 67.4 on snap counts of 617 and 609, after finishing above 70 on PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to that. Given his age, it’s likely his best years are behind him, but he could still remain a solid starting interior defender for at least another season. His run defense is primarily what has declined, but he has still totaled 6 sacks, 22 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 32 games over the past two seasons, which is actually an improvement over the 19 sacks, 46 hits, and 7.5% pressure rate he has in 125 career games.

Campbell is even older, going into his age 39 season, making him the oldest defensive player in the league by three years, but he is seemingly ageless, posting a 82.3 PFF grade across 616 snaps in 2024 that was his best single-season grade since 2019. In total, Campbell has finished above 70 on PFF in fourteen straight seasons, including nine seasons over 80 and four seasons over 90. Over that stretch, he has totaled 97.5 sacks, 166 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 213 games, while also playing the run well and averaging 49.0 snaps per game. At his age, a significant drop off is very possible, but he could also remain at least a useful starter for another season. By signing with the Cardinals this off-season, Campbell returns to the team who drafted him in the second round in 2008 and with whom he spent the first nine seasons of his career.

With Tomlinson and Campbell both on the wrong side of 30, the Cardinals used their first round pick this year on a younger option, taking Walter Nolen 16th overall. He has a huge upside and could also make an immediate impact in a rotational role. He’s also the second straight interior defender the Cardinals have drafted in the first round, as they used their other first round pick in 2024 on Darius Robinson. Robinson missed most of his rookie season with injury, limited to 184 snaps in six games, and he struggled mightily even when on the field, with a 48.4 PFF grade, but he still has a high upside and could be a lot better in his second season in the league if he is healthier. He also figures to rotate heavily with Tomlinson, Campbell, and Nolen.

The Cardinals are also getting back Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols after they missed most of last season with injury, limited to 100 snaps in 3 games and 173 snaps in 6 games respectively, after being signed to deals worth 3 years, 31.165 million and 3 years, 21 million in free agency last off-season. In a much deeper and more talented position group this season, Jones and Nichols are unlikely to see significant roles and both were overpaid as free agents anyway. Jones has finished below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, including four seasons under 50, while Nichols has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons. The Cardinals are much better off for not needing them to play significant roles this season.

LJ Collier and Dante Stills also remain on the roster as of this writing, but both may be long shots to make the final roster, given all of the Cardinals’ additions at this position this off-season. Collier is a bust as a 2019 first round pick, finishing below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league. Stills, meanwhile, is a 2023 6th round pick who has finished with PFF grades of 59.3 and 57.0 over the past two seasons. Collier and Stills led this position group in snaps last season, but with Tomlinson, Campbell, and Nolen all being added and Robinson, Jones, and Nichols all expected to be healthier, the Cardinals don’t have much need for them any more. This is a much improved position group.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Cardinals also signed Akeem Davis-Gaither in free agency, bringing the linebacker in on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal, but he is not as impactful as the Cardinals’ other off-season additions. A 2020 4th round pick, Davis-Gaither only played 847 underwhelming snaps in the first four seasons of his career, before playing a bigger role in 2024, when he played 535 snaps, but he didn’t perform any better, finishing with a 59.0 PFF grade. Davis-Gaither is replacing Kyzir White, who had a 48.8 PFF grade across 1,015 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Davis-Gaither to be an upgrade, but he is still an underwhelming option.

Davis-Gaither will start next to Mack Wilson, who was decent with a 63.8 PFF grade across 760 snaps last season. That was the first season of his 6-year career in which he played more than 400 snaps and finished above 60 on PFF, but he also had a 81.5 PFF grade across 305 snaps in 2023 and, only in his age 27 season, it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter going forward. Even if that is the case, however, Davis-Gaither and Wilson are an underwhelming linebacker duo and the Cardinals’ depth behind them isn’t great either, with 2023 5th round pick Owen Rappoe, who has played 245 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie Cody Simon as their top reserve options. 

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Cardinals also used a second round pick on Michigan cornerback Will Johnson. Johnson was arguably the best cornerback in the draft and could have been a top-10 pick, but concerns about the durability of his knee long-term dropped him into the middle of the second round. If he can stay healthy, he could prove to be a massive steal for the Cardinals. For now, it sounds like he will be healthy enough for the Cardinals off-season program and will compete for a role in what is a very young cornerback group overall.

The Cardinals’ top cornerback and probably the only one locked into a role is slot cornerback Garrett Williams, a 2023 3rd round pick who broke out last season with a 82.0 PFF grade across 778 snaps, after posting an underwhelming 56.7 PFF grade across 360 snaps as a rookie. Williams is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in 2024, but even if he regressed somewhat, he should still remain an above average slot cornerback and he has the potential to be one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league for years to come. 

In addition to taking Will Johnson in the second round of this year’s draft and Garrett Williams in the third round of the 2023 draft, the Cardinals used second and third round picks on Max Melton and Elijah Jones in the 2024 draft. Melton was mediocre with a 55.5 PFF grade across 565 snaps as a rookie, while Jones missed his entire rookie season with injury, but both could provide more value in their second season in the league and should compete for roles. 

The Cardinals also have Starling Thomas, who, while he went undrafted in the 2023 draft, is also a young cornerback who will compete for a role. After struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade across 473 snaps as a rookie, he was serviceable with a 60.9 PFF grade across 817 snaps last season. The Cardinals are probably hoping one of their higher upside, higher drafted cornerbacks can step up and take over a bigger role from Thomas, but Thomas isn’t a bad option to have either.

The veteran of this cornerback group is Sean Murphy-Bunting, a 2019 second round pick of the Buccaneers who is heading into the second year of a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal he signed with the Cardinals last off-season. Murphy-Bunting struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade across 725 snaps in his first season in Arizona and, while he has had some better years, he has also finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league and there is a good chance he remains mediocre in 2025. His 8 million dollar salary is guaranteed, ensuring his roster spot, but he is not guaranteed to continue having a significant role in a young cornerback group that has other options. 

Unlike at cornerback, the Cardinals have a veteran duo at safety, where Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are heading into their 7th straight season as the Cardinals safety duo, but both are still under 30 and are unlikely to regress in 2025. Thompson has played 84 games in six seasons in the league, starting 72 of them, including all 47 games he has played in the past three seasons. He’s never been a spectacular player, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, with his career best coming in 2023, when he finished with a 71.3 grade. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Baker, meanwhile, has started 112 of the 122 games he has played since being selected in the second round in the 2017 NFL Draft, including all 92 he has played in over the past six seasons. Like Thompson, he has also exceeded 60 on PFF in every season in the league and he’s shown a higher upside than Thompson, exceeding 70 on PFF in five of those eight seasons, including a career best 77.8 grade in 2024. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being an above average starting safety, even if he might not repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

If either Thompson or Baker miss time with injury, the Cardinals could still be in good hands because 2024 4th round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson showed a lot of potential in a reserve role as a rookie, with a 75.5 PFF grade across 258 snaps. He might not be able to keep up that level of play as an every down starter if needed, but he’s still young with upside and he’s a better third safety option than most teams have. The Cardinals’ secondary has a good chance to be better than a year ago, given how many young cornerback options they have that could potentially give them more than they gave them a year ago.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Cardinals began last season with Matt Prater as their kicker and he excelled, making all six of his field goals and all ten of his extra points in four games, but then he got hurt and was replaced by Chad Ryland. Ryland, a 4th round pick by the Patriots in 2023, was a disaster as a rookie in New England, making just 64.0% of his field goals and finishing the season with a league worst 15.46 points below average, leading to his release from New England after just one season. 

However, he was a lot better in Arizona last season, making 87.5% of his field goals and accumulating 1.81 points above average. With Prater a free agent going into his age 41 season this off-season, the Cardinals opted not to bring him back and instead are going with the younger Ryland going forward. He’s still pretty unproven and it’s possible he could regress in 2025, but he also came into the league with a lot of potential and has a good chance to continue being a solid kicker for the Cardinals going forward.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Cardinals ranked 7th in both yards per play and first down rate last season and bring back every offensive player who played at least 400 snaps for them last season. Their defense was a problem, as they ranked 23rd in yards per play allowed and 29th first down rate allowed, but they should be significantly healthier on defense, after having the fourth most adjusted games lost to injury on defense last season, and they made several key off-season additions as well, most notably edge defenders Josh Sweat, interior defenders Dalvin Tomlinson and Walter Nolen, and cornerback Will Johnson. If their offense can remain a top-10 unit and their defense can improve to even being a middling unit, the potential is there for this to be a playoff team in 2025, especially since they have a weak schedule.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC West

Cleveland Browns 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Browns made a franchise changing move. After years of building their roster after an aggressive rebuilding process, the Browns felt they were a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders and traded three first round picks to Houston for Deshaun Watson, who they promptly gave a new fully guaranteed 5-year, 20 million dollar contract. It was a risky move and not just because of the price they paid to acquire him. Watson came with serious off-the-field accusations and a pending lengthy suspension, even after he had already sat out the entire 2021 season as his legal situation played out.

However, the one thing that didn’t seem to be a concern was his football ability. Watson was in the prime of his career and had career numbers of 67.8% completion, 8.32 YPA, 104 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions, along with 5.46 YPC and 17 touchdowns on the ground, including a career best year the last time he was on the field in 2020, when he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries, leading to him ranking 2nd overall among quarterbacks on PFF with a 92.4 grade.

Watson missed the first eleven games of the 2022 season with his suspension and then was underwhelming upon his return, completing 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. It was easy to chalk Watson’s underwhelming performance up to being rusty after missing a total of 28 games and adapting to a new scheme, but Watson continued to struggle in 2023, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 6 starts, before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Upon his return in 2024, Watson was even worse, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 5.31 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 7 starts, before going down for the season with a torn achilles. 

The reasons for Watson’s sudden regression in the middle of his career are not totally clear, but it probably has something to do with a combination of injuries, being a poor scheme fit, and being out of action for so long between the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Watson does have two years left on his contract, worth a combined 92 million guaranteed, but after his latest injury, the Browns are seemingly ready to give up on him and, even if they aren’t, it’s very possible he’s not healthy enough to play at all in 2025. Making matters worse, the quarterback they jettisoned when they acquired Watson, Baker Mayfield, has since broken out in Tampa Bay, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons. 

Probably the most frustrating thing about Watson’s struggles for the Browns is the fact that they were right that they were a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders. As poorly as Watson played in 2022 and 2023, the Browns were 8-4 in games he started and, even without him, the Browns made the post-season in 2023 despite starting five different quarterbacks because of the strength of the rest of this roster. However, with their roster getting older and with three missing first round picks as a result of the Watson trade, the rest of this team has declined significantly in 2024 and, still without a competent quarterback, the Browns finished last season 3-14.

This off-season, the Browns opted not to address the quarterback in a significant way, recognizing that this was a bad quarterback draft class and recognizing that their roster would need a multi-year rebuild either way. The Browns used their 2nd overall pick to trade down to the 5th overall pick and accumulated much needed extra draft picks in the process, including the Jaguars’ first round pick in what is projected to be a much better quarterback class next year. In the meantime, the Browns took fliers on former first round bust pick Kenny Pickett, 40-year-old Joe Flacco, and third and fifth round rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, in hopes that one of them can give them respectable quarterback play. Ultimately, that seems unlikely and that might be for the best, as losing as many games as possible would help the Browns secure a high pick in next year’s draft. 

Flacco went 4-1 for the Browns in 2023, but he was two years younger then and had about a league average 90.2 QB rating, mostly winning games because of a strong supporting cast that is no longer what it once was. Pickett was the 20th overall pick by the Steelers in 2022, but he was always a reach in a terrible quarterback draft and has shown nothing in three years in the league that suggests he should have been taken there, completing just 62.6% of his passes for an average of 6.31 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 25 starts with the Steelers and Eagles. Gabriel and Sanders have some upside, but ultimately the odds of finding even a solid starting quarterback outside of the top-50 picks of a draft are very slim, particularly when you consider that this was overall a bad quarterback draft class. It’s very likely that at least two or three of these options make starts for the Browns in 2025 and it’s also very likely that they all struggle.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Browns still have four of their five primary starting offensive linemen from their 2023 playoff team, but four of their five offensive line starters are on the wrong side of 30 and, overall, this group is not as good as it was two years ago. Center Ethan Pocic is the youngest of the over 30 offensive linemen, only going into his age 30 season this season. He’s been a solid starter for the past five seasons, finishing in the 60s and 70s on PFF in all five seasons, including a 71.4 PFF grade in 2023 and a 63.6 PFF grade in 2024. Given his age, he could remain a solid starter for another couple seasons, but it’s also possible he declines a little bit.

Right guard Wyatt Teller is going into his age 31 season. At his best, he was one of the top guards in the league, with PFF grades of 92.7 and 84.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he also maintained above average grades into 2022 and 2023, when he received grades of 70.3 and 72.9, before falling to 62.6 in 2024. It’s likely at this point in his career that he is on the decline and it’s very possible he’ll never be as good as he was in 2022-2023 again, let alone 2020-2021, but he probably will remain at least a capable starter.

Left guard Joel Bitonio is the oldest of the bunch, going into his age 34 season, and reportedly contemplated retirement this off-season. The 11-year veteran was consistently one of the best guards in the league in his prime, with eight seasons above 70 on PFF and four seasons above 80, but he has finished with grades of 68.0 and 63.9 over the past two seasons and it’s likely that is the best we can expect him from at this point in his career. It’s also possible he declines even further and struggles.

The Browns did sign Teven Jenkins to a 1-year, 3.05 million dollar deal in free agency to give themselves some insurance at guard. Jenkins, a 2021 2nd round pick, has performed at a pretty high level over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 80.7, 72.6, and 75.4, but he has durability concerns, missing 23 of a possible 68 games in his career, with a maximum of 14 starts in a season, which is likely why he didn’t have a strong free agent market. As far as reserve guards go, he is one of the best in the league, as he arguably is good enough to start for a number of teams around the league. The Browns also have 2024 3rd round pick Zak ZInter, who struggled mightily with a 43.9 PFF grade across 233 snaps as a rookie, but who still has upside and could provide good depth at both guard and center.

At right tackle, Jack Conklin is going into his age 31 season. He actually missed most of the 2023 season with an injury he suffered week 1, which carried into 2024, when he missed the first four games of the season. Having him healthy in 2025 would be one thing the Browns have in 2025 that they didn’t have in 2023, but it’s also unlikely the Browns go the full season without any offensive line injuries, so they won’t necessarily be healthier upfront in 2025 than they were in 2023, especially when you consider that injuries have cost Conklin at least five games in four of the past seven seasons, with 41 total games missed in those seven seasons. Conklin also saw his PFF grade fall to a career worst 66.2 in 2024 and, while he could bounce back a little bit in 2025, another year removed from injury, but it’s also very likely that his best days are behind him, given his age.

When Conklin was out in 2023, his primary replacement was Dawand Jones, who did a decent job with a 64.8 PFF grade in 9 starts, despite being just a 4th round rookie, before suffering his own season-ending injury. With left tackle Jedrick Wills, who had PFF grades of 54.0 and 52.9 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, no longer with the team, Jones is expected to take over as the starting left tackle in 2025, but his long-term trajectory doesn’t look as good now as it did after his solid rookie season, as he regressed significantly to a 46.4 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2024, before his season was ended by another significant injury. 

Coming off of a terrible season and back-to-back major injuries, Jones is a shaky starting option going into 2025. The only other option the Browns have though is veteran free agent addition Cornelius Lucas, who has been a solid swing tackle for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in eight straight seasons, but who has also never made more than 12 starts in a season in his career and now is heading into his age 34 season. With a questionable situation at left tackle and the Browns’ other four expected starting offensive linemen on the wrong side of 30, the Browns’ offensive line has a lot of concerns, though at least they have above average depth if needed.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Browns’ receiving corps was led by Amari Cooper, who had a great year, posting a 80.3 PFF grade, with a 72/1250/5 slash line and 2.31 yards per route run on just 128 targets, despite an inconsistent quarterback situation. Cooper declined significantly in 2024 though, not coincidentally his age 30 season, when he had just a 63.0 PFF grade with a 24/250/2 slash line and 1.46 yards per route run on 53 targets in 6 games, before being traded to the Bills mid-season. 

Fortunately, the Browns had Jerry Jeudy, who they acquired last off-season, to step up in his absence, but, while he did have an impressive 90/1229/4 slash line, he was far less efficient than Cooper was in 2023, totaling those numbers on 145 targets, averaging 1.72 yards per route run, and finishing with a 73.5 PFF grade as a result. In fact, Jeudy’s yards per route run average was lower than the average he had in his first four seasons in the league in Denver (1.83), when he averaged just a 53/763/3 slash line per season. Jeudy should still be productive in 2025, but that’s because he remains by far the top wide receiver option in an underwhelming position group.

After Jeudy on the depth chart, Cedric Tillman and Diontae Johnson are expected to be the Browns’ top wide receivers. Tillman, a 2023 3rd round pick, struggled mightily as a rookie with 0.63 yards per route run, before taking a step forward in his second season in the league, with 1.22 yards per route run. He could take another step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee and, overall, he seems likely to be an underwhelming #2 wide receiver option. 

Diontae Johnson is much more proven, with an average of 1.70 yards per route run in his career and was primarily available on just a minimum one-year dollar deal in free agency this off-season because of issues he has had with coaching staffs in the past, especially last season, when he spent times on three different rosters, after spending the first five seasons of his career in Pittsburgh. As a result, he finished last season with a career worst 33/375/3 slash line. Johnson is only in his age 29 season and still averaged a decent 1.52 yards per route run last season, so if he can be coachable, he could be a solid receiving option, especially compared to Elijah Moore (0.91 yards per route run), who he is essentially replacing, but he comes with a lot of risk.

Behind their top-3 wide receivers, the Browns are very limited on options, as the other wide receivers on their roster are return man DeAndre Carter, who is heading into his age 32 season, with a career 1.11 yards per route run average, David Bell, a 2022 3rd round pick who hasn’t developed, averaging 0.92 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, Jamari Thrash, a 2024 5th round pick who averaged just 0.24 yards per route run as a rookie, and Michael Woods, a 2022 6th round pick with a career 0.38 yards per route run average. All four are bottom of the roster wide receiver talents, but if any of their top-3 receivers miss significant time with injury, one of them will be forced into a significant role, which is very likely, given how common injuries are.

With the issues the Browns have at wide receiver, expect them to lean heavily on tight end David Njoku, who had 123 targets in 2023 and 97 targets in just 11 games in 2014. Njoku was better in 2023 than 2024, with a 81/882/6 slash line and 1.70 yards per route run, as opposed to 64/505/5 and 1.33 yards per route run in 2024, but he is only in his age 29 season, so he could bounce back in 2025 if he’s healthy. The Browns added Harold Fannin in the third round of the draft, but I think that was more for depth purposes in the short-term and that he won’t cut heavily into Njoku’s workload. Fannin will replace Jordan Akins, a veteran who was decent in an expanded role last season with Njoku missing time, finishing the season with a 40/390/2 slash line and 1.24 yards per route run on 58 targets. Overall, this is an underwhelming receiving corps, with Njoku likely functioning as the #2 receiver.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Browns’ running game was a problem last season, as they ranked 29th in the NFL in carries, 29th in rushing yards, and 23rd in yards per carry at 4.11. Leading rusher Jerome Ford averaged 5.43 YPC on 104 carries, but 45.1% of his rushing yards came on 7 carries of 15+ yards and he averaged just 3.20 YPC on his other 97 carries. Ford was also the Browns’ leading rusher in 2023, when he averaged 3.99 YPC on 204 carries, with 32.7% of his yards coming on 8 carries of 15+ yards and a 2.79 YPC on his other 196 carries.

In order to improve this running game, the Browns did not retain Nick Chubb, who averaged just 3.25 YPC on 102 carries last season, after missing most of 2023 with a significant knee injury, and they replaced him with second and fourth round picks Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson. Judkins, a physical inside runner, is likely to be their lead back in 2024, while the smaller, speedier Sampson can provide a change of pace. Ford will likely remain involved, particularly in passing situations, where he has slash lines of 44/319/5 and 37/225/0 on target totals of 63 and 43 over the past two seasons respectively. This still looks like an underwhelming backfield, but they have significant upside with a pair of talented rookies coming in. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Browns’ defense was the biggest reason for their success in 2023, as they ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate allowed and 4th in yards per play allowed. In 2024, they were still pretty good, but fell to 2nd in first down rate allowed and 23rd yards per play allowed. That wasn’t that surprising. Not only does defensive performance tend to be much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, but they also had several key players from 2023 who were getting up there in age. Going into 2025, the Browns have lost several key players from their dominant 2023 defense, while others have declined or are likely to decline due to age.

At the beginning of this off-season, the Browns thought they might be losing their most important player on defense, Myles Garrett, who initially demanded a trade, before opting to come back after the Browns gave him a 4-year, 160 million dollar extension that reset the edge defender market at the time. Garrett was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, receiving a 94.0 PFF grade on 805 snaps, excelling against the run, while also totaling 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 17.2% pressure rate, and he wasn’t much worse in 2024, when he had a 92.3 PFF grade on 822 snaps, 14 sacks, 13 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate. In total, Garrett has finished above 80 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, since being #1 overall in 2017, including four straight seasons above 90. He’s now going into his age 30 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he declines somewhat in 2025, it’s hard to imagine him not being one of the best edge defenders in the league.

In 2023, Garrett lined up opposite Za’Darius Smith, who also played at a high level with a 82.6 PFF grade across 580 snaps and a 15.5% pressure rate, while Ogbo Okoronkwo had a 65.7 PFF grade across 443 snaps and a 12.0% pressure rate as the primary reserve. In 2024, Smith got off to a solid start, with a 73.6 PFF grade across 324 snaps and a 13.2% pressure rate through 9 games, but he wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2023 and then he was traded to the Lions for draft compensation, with the Browns’ season going nowhere. Meanwhile, Okoronkwo dropped all the way to a 45.3 PFF grade, struggling against the run and as a pass rusher (8.7% pressure rate). Okoronkwo had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so it’s also possible his best days are behind him and that he will continue to struggle.

Isaiah McGuire, a 2023 4th round pick, was a bright spot for the Browns last season. He struggled with a 46.9 PFF grade across 93 snaps as a rookie, but in 2024 he excelled as a run stopper (86.1 PFF grade against the run, 3rd best among edge defenders), while also adding 2.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in a part-time role. He finished last season with 469 snaps played, 297 of which came in 8 games after Smith was traded, and he figures to continue having an expanded role in 2024. It’s possible he’s not quite as good in 2025 in that expanded role as he was in 2024, but he seems to have a bright future, especially as a run stopper.

The Browns will get Alex Wright back from injury this season, after he was limited to 103 snaps in four games last season. Wright wasn’t bad last season before going down, with a 60.2 PFF grade, but that was a limited sample size and he struggled with PFF grades of 38.4 and 54.8 on snap counts of 543 and 385 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Wright was a third round pick in 2022, so he has potential and it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a decent rotational player upon his return in 2025, but he also could regress back to struggling.

The Browns also took a flier on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka this off-season and will give the 2021 first round pick a chance to earn a rotational role. Tryon-Shoyinka has largely been a bust to this point in his career, playing 630 snaps per season, but maxing out with a 67.1 PFF grade in 2022 and finishing below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, including a 52.0 PFF grade across 539 snaps in 2024. In total, he has just 15 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 66 career games, including 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 15 games in 2024. Still only in his age 26 season, he may still have some untapped potential, but he’s running out of time to make good on that potential. The Browns still have the dominant Myles Garrett and Isaiah McGuire has potential, but the rest of this edge defender group is underwhelming and, overall, this group looks noticeably worse than it was in 2023.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

In 2024, the Browns were led in snaps at the interior defender position by Dalvin Tomlinson (609 snaps) and Shelby Harris (527 snaps), who also led the Browns in snaps at the interior defender position in 2023. Both had solid seasons in 2024, with PFF grades of 67.4 and 66.7 respectively, but are on the wrong side of 30, so Tomlinson wasn’t retained in free agency, while Harris is expected to play a smaller role, now in his age 34 season. An 11-year veteran, Harris has never finished below 60 on PFF in any season, with seven seasons over 70, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could continue declining in 2025.

To make up for the loss of Tomlinson and Harris likely moving into a smaller role, the Browns used the 5th overall pick on Mason Graham, signed veteran Maliek Collins to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, and will likely get more out of 2024 2nd round pick Michael Hall, who was limited to 232 snaps in 8 games as a rookie due to injury and suspension. Graham is NFL ready, in addition to having a huge upside, while Hall showed a lot of potential in a limited role as a rookie, with a 67.7 PFF grade. 

Collins, meanwhile, is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 30 season. A 9-year veteran, Collins has consistently been a good interior rusher throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all but one season, while totaling 30.5 sacks, 60 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate in 136 career games, but he has also consistently struggled as a run defender, finishing below 60 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league. I would expect more of the same from Collins in 2025, with potentially some decline overall due to his age.

The Browns also have Sam Kamara and Jowan Briggs, who showed some potential in limited roles last season, with PFF grades of 65.7 and 72.2 respectively on snap counts of 273 and 133 respectively. Kamara is a 2021 undrafted free agent who only played 194 snaps in his first three seasons in the league, prior to last season, while Briggs was a 2024 7th round pick, so neither of them have a high upside and both could struggle if forced into a larger role, but they should still compete for rotational roles, even if they are likely to need an injury ahead of them on the depth chart to see significant playing time. This isn’t a bad position group, but it is not a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Outside of Myles Garrett, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah might have been the Browns’ most important defensive player in 2023. A 2021 2nd round pick, Owusu-Koramoah had a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023 and was having an even better season in 2024 with a 80.6 PFF grade, but he suffered a scary neck injury last season that ended his season after 460 snaps in 8 games and that already has him out for all of 2025, making it likely that his career is in doubt. Needless to say, his absence in 2025 and potentially beyond are a huge blow to this defense.

Fellow linebackers Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush also had good seasons in 2024, with PFF grades of 77.4 and 79.2 respectively across snap counts of 602 and 497. For Hicks, it was his fifth season over 70 on PFF in ten seasons in the league, including back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. Hicks is going into his age 33 season though and reserve option Mohamed Diaboute struggled with a 52.5 PFF grade across 581 snaps last season, which mostly came after Owusu-Koramoah got hurt, so the Browns prioritized re-signing Bush in free agency and then used a second round pick on Carson Schwesinger. 

Bush also comes with some concerns, in part because he was arrested this off-season, but also because he is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, with his previous career high single-season grade on PFF being 62.9. Bush is a former 2019 1st round pick who is still only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a solid starting option, but that’s not a guarantee. WIth Owusu-Koramoah out for the season, Hicks going into his age 33 season, Bush being a one-year wonder with off-the-field concerns, and Schwesinger being a rookie, this is a shaky linebacker group, but there is at least some upside here if everything goes right.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Browns’ secondary didn’t change much between 2023 and 2024 personnel wise, but all of their key players had a worse season in 2024 than they did in 2023. That’s despite the fact that many of their key defensive backs were not on the wrong side of 30. The most noticeable decline was probably cornerbacks Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome. Neither were spectacular in 2023, with PFF grades of 65.8 and 69.6 respectively across snap counts of 856 and 770 respectively, but both struggled in 2024, falling to PFF grades of 47.9 and 52.2 respectively across snap counts of 827 and 571.

Both are still only going into their age 25 season and 2024 is the outlier when you look at their careers, as Emerson is a 2022 3rd round pick who also had a 72.5 PFF grade across 783 snaps as a rookie, while Newsome is a 2021 1st round pick who has finished with PFF grades above 68 in each of the first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so both have significant bounce back potential in 2024, but they overall don’t look as promising long-term as they did a year ago, given how badly they played last season. If Emerson and/or Newsome continue to struggle, the Browns won’t have much choice but to continue playing them in significant roles as their top alternative is Cameron Mitchell, a 2023 5th round pick who has struggled with PFF grades of 58.1 and 52.9 across snap counts of 277 and 371 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. 

Denzel Ward remains as the Browns’ top cornerback. His dropoff from 2023 to 2024 was negligible, going from a 69.6 PFF grade across 617 snaps in 2023 to a 68.4 PFF grade across 757 snaps in 2024. Last season was actually the second worst single-season grade of his 7-year career, as he’s mostly been an above average cornerback since entering the league as the 4th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Ward is still only going into his age 28 season and should remain an above average starter in 2025, but durability has consistently been a problem for him and will likely remain one going forward. Ward has never had a major injury, playing in at least 12 games in every season in the league, but he has also missed at least one game in every season, 21 games total in seven seasons, while maxing out at 855 snaps played in a season.

At safety, the Browns also got negligible declines from Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 602 snaps in 2023 and a 65.5 PFF grade across 401 snaps in 2024, and Rodney McLeod, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 280 snaps in 2023 and a 50.9 PFF grade across 565 snaps in 2024. With Thornhill and McLeod heading into their age 30 and age 35 seasons respectively, the Browns did not retain either and instead will give Ronnie Hickman a full-time starting job. Hickman also regressed from 2023 to 2024, but he showed a lot of potential in both seasons, with a 86.5 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 2023 and a 77.2 PFF grade across 463 snaps in 2024. Hickman went undrafted in 2023 and his impressive play over the past two seasons might not translate into an every down role, so he does come with some risk, but he also has a lot of upside.

If Hickman can’t translate to a larger role, the Browns’ best alternative is veteran Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency. Kazee has been a solid situational player/starter for most of his career, starting 62 of 92 games he played in from 2017-2023 and averaging 45.0 snaps played per game, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. However, he fell to a 58.8 PFF grade across just 290 snaps last season and now heads into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he would likely struggle if forced back into a starting role. 

Grant Delpit will remain as the other starting safety. He fell from a 70.0 PFF grade across 738 snaps in 2023 to a 65.2 PFF grade across 978 snaps in 2024. His 2023 season was the best season of his career thus far, but he’s also had a PFF grade above 60 in each of the past four seasons and, still only in his age 27 season, he should remain at least a capable starter in 2025, even if he doesn’t reach the heights he reached in 2023. The Browns have a solid secondary if everything goes right, but there is also downside here as well.

Grade: B

Kickers

The Browns’ kicker situation was a big part of the problem last season, as kicker Dustin Hopkins ranked dead last in the NFL with 14.8 points below average, probably costing the Browns at least one win, if not more. The Browns didn’t bring in any meaningful competition for him this off-season, with the only other option on their roster being 2024 undrafted free agent Andre Szmyt, who didn’t attempt a kick as a rookie. Instead, the Browns are hoping for a bounce back season from Hopkins. Hopkins did have three straight above average seasons prior to last season, accumulating 10.3 points above average over those three seasons, including 7.4 points above average in 2023, 6th best in the NFL. However, he is now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days may be behind him and, even if he bounces back somewhat in 2025, he could still struggle and be below average. 

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Browns figure to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season. Their quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league and they lack high level young talent throughout their roster, in large part due to not having a first round pick for three straight seasons from 2022-2024. The Browns look like they are in the early stages of a teardown before a rebuild and might have been better off more aggressively tearing down this roster in an attempt to free up more cap space for 2026 and get to the building part of their rebuild sooner. As of right now, the Browns still have a roster that has the 5th highest average age in the NFL and they have just 14.75 million in cap space for 2026, 25th in the NFL. By not going through a full teardown, they will probably win a couple more games than they otherwise would have, but it seems highly unlikely this team will compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC North

San Francisco 49ers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most disappointing team in the league last season, going from a 12-win season and a Super Bowl appearance in 2023 to being seen as one of the early favorites in 2024 to finishing with a 6-11 record and in last place in their division. This off-season, the 49ers lost among the most key players of any team in the league, without replacing most of them. Despite that, I still like the 49ers’ chances for a bounce back season, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers were statistically much better than their record suggested last season, as they finished the season 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record. The 49ers did that despite having the most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season, by a wide margin. In fact, there was a bigger gap between the 49ers and the second most injury plagued team in the league last season than there was between the second most injury plagued team and the 12th most injury plagued team.

The 49ers lost a lot this off-season, but many of the players they lost either missed significant time and/or had down years in 2024. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw missed all but 34 snaps due to injury last season. Interior defender Javon Hargrave was limited to 104 snaps in 3 games. Safety Talanoa Hufanga struggled with a 57.8 PFF grade in 304 snaps across 7 games after returning from injury. Cornerback Charvarius Ward missed five games and was not himself when on the field while dealing with tragedy in his personal life, finishing the season with just a 56.2 PFF grade. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel only missed two games, but was limited due to injury in numerous games, resulting in a career low 1.60 yards per route run average and a career low 70.9 PFF grade.

When the 49ers were at their best in 2023, they were led by nine players between their offense and defense who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80: quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, edge defender Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, and cornerback Charvarius Ward. In 2024, Purdy missed two games and did not seem to be himself when he returned, McCaffrey was not himself across 167 snaps in four games, Samuel and Ward missed time and were not themselves when on the field, as mentioned, Williams missed seven games, Aiyuk missed ten games, Kittle missed two games, Bosa missed three games, and Warner did not miss a game, but played through a broken bone in his leg for most of the season. 

Samuel and Ward are gone, Kittle and Williams are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline this season, and Aiyuk and McCaffrey still have significant injury concerns, but overall I would expect much more in 2025 out of those core players from the 49ers’ 2023 team than the 49ers got from them in 2024. The 49ers also drafted well in the 2024 NFL Draft, with second round pick cornerback Renaldo Green (69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps), third round pick guard Dominick Puni (80.5 PFF grade across 1,078 snaps), and fourth round pick safety Malik Mustapha (63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps) all showing a lot of promise as rookies, not to mention first round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who could take a step forward in year two. With those players added to the mix and healthier seasons from their core players from 2023, the 49ers still have a team that could compete in the NFC in 2025, assuming they don’t have the historically bad injury luck they had last season.

The biggest reason the 49ers had to let so many players leave this off-season was the fact that they owe quarterback Brocky Purdy a huge raise from his rookie deal. Purdy got a lot of criticism for the 49ers’ struggles last season and his TD/INT ratio noticeably declined from 31/11 to 20/12 between 2023 and 2024, but yards per attempt is much more predictive year-to-year than TD/INT ratio and he still ranked 3rd in yards per attempt (8.49), despite not having as good of a supporting cast as he had in years past and despite playing through injury in his final five starts of the season. 

Overall, Purdy finished the season with a PFF grade of 82.4 in 2024, 11th among quarterbacks, after posting a 88.4 PFF grade, 4th among quarterbacks, in his first full season as a starter in 2023. He has proven he can produce at a high level even without an elite supporting cast and that he can post MVP level production with an elite supporting cast, so he deserves a top quarterback contract, at least more than most of the quarterbacks who have gotten them recently, including Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and possibly Jared Goff.

Purdy will be backed up this season by free agent signing Mac Jones. Jones is a bust as a former first round pick, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions in 49 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected 15th overall in 2021, but he’s a solid backup, he came relatively cheaply (2-year, 8.41 million), and he is a good fit for the 49ers’ scheme. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs, who combined for 63.6% completion, 7.27 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the absence of Purdy last season. The 49ers would likely still be in trouble if Purdy suffered a serious injury and Jones had to play for a significant period of time, but that’s true of almost every team and Jones is above average as far as backup options go.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The 49ers’ running backs were probably their position group that was hardest hit by injuries last season. Not only did Christian McCaffrey miss most of the season and disappoint in limited action when on the field, but top backup Elijah Mitchell missed all of the season and expected third string Jordan Mason, who surprised as the lead back in the absence of McCaffrey and Mitchell with 5.17 YPC on 153 carries, also missed five games, leaving the 49ers down to their 4th or even 5th string running back at times.

Mitchell and Mason were not brought back this off-season, but 2024 4th round pick Isaac Guerendo flashed potential as a rookie last season, with 5.00 YPC on 84 carries and 1.42 yards per route run as a receiver, and the 49ers also added Oregon’s Jordan James in the 5th round of this year’s draft, so their depth situation isn’t bad. Of course, if Christian McCaffrey does end up missing more time this time, it would be a huge blow to this offense even if their depth at the position isn’t bad. 

At his best, McCaffrey is the best all-purpose running back in the league, averaging 256 carries for 1,271 rushing yards (4.96 YPC) and 11 rushing touchdowns with an average 94/794/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run in his last four healthy seasons in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, but he has also been limited to 3 games, 7 games, and 4 games in 2020, 2021, and 2024 respectively, so the injury risk is obvious. Making matters worse, McCaffrey is now heading into his age 29 season with 1,871 career touches, which is a relatively advanced age with a relatively high career usage for a running back, which, not only could increase his injury risk, but could prevent him from being at his top form even when on the field. Ultimately, I would expect a lot more out of McCaffrey in 2025 than 2024, even if he’s not at his best, but the injury and age risk is obvious as well. 

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

With Deebo Samuel having a down year and Brandon Aiyuk missing all but seven games last season, Jauan Jennings surprisingly stepped up and had a career year with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run (14th among eligible wide receivers), after combining for just 78 catches, 963 yards, and 7 touchdowns across his first four seasons in the league from 2020-2023, when he averaged just 1.23 yards per route run. Jennings is a one-year wonder and might not be as efficient as he was a year ago, but Samuel is gone and Aiyuk could be out until mid-season as he recovers from a multi-ligament tear in his knee, so Aiyuk could see even more playing time than a year ago, when he ranked just 48th among wide receivers in routes run.

Ricky Pearsall, their first round pick in 2024, also figures to have a big role this season. He had an underwhelming rookie year with a 31/400/3 slash line on 1.31 yards per route run, but he has a valid excuse, missing the first six games of the season after an off-season gunshot wound, which likely led to him not being 100% all season even when he did play. Now in his second season in the league, he has the upside to take a big step forward. Jennings will probably lead 49ers wide receivers in production, but Pearsall probably has the highest upside of any of their options, aside from Aiyuk, who obviously has a serious injury concern.

When Aiyuk is not on the field, veteran free agent addition DeMarcus Robinson will likely be the 49ers’ #3 receiver behind Jennings and Pearsall. He’s an underwhelming option though, as the 505 receiving yards he had last season was the highest total of his 9-year career, a career in which he has averaged just 0.96 yards per route run, and now he is heading into his age 31 season, so he almost definitely is what he is at this point of his career and easily could regress and be even less effective than he has been throughout his career. He could face competition for his role from 2024 4th round pick Jacob Cowing, who played 106 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Jordan Watkins, but Robinson will likely be ahead of Cowing and Watkins on the depth chart and, even if he isn’t, it’s unlikely Cowing or Watkins would be any better.

Obviously the big question mark in this receiving corps is Aiyuk. In his last full season in 2023, Aiyuk was one of the best receivers in the league, totaling a 75/1342/7 slash line on just 105 targets, averaging 3.01 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, and posting a 92.3 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. However, in addition to dealing with a significant injury, he is also a one-year wonder in terms of performing at that level, averaging just 1.78 yards per route run, with a career high of 1.91 yards per route run in his other four seasons in the league. Even in 2024 before his injury, he had just a 25/374/0 slash line and 1.74 yards per route run in seven games. Aiyuk’s return from injury could still be a big boost for this offense, but I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near his 2023 form.

Tight end George Kittle will remain a big part of the offense. His age is becoming a concern, now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, recording the second highest receiving yardage total of his career last season with a 78/1106/8 slash line on just 94 targets, and, even if he does decline a little bit, he will likely remain one of the best tight ends in the league because he is declining from such a high base point. In addition to averaging 2.48 yards per route run and a 86/1191/7 slash line per 17 games over the past seven seasons, he is also an elite run blocker, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 89.7, 95.0, 84.9, 90.9, 82.0, 87.6, and 92.1 over those seven seasons.

Eric Saubert was the #2 tight end last season, but he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season and instead was replaced with Luke Farrell on a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal. Saubert had a 51.2 PFF grade across 377 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Jarrell to be better, but he was still likely overpaid as a free agent. Jarrell is a capable blocker, which is primarily what his role will be in San Francisco, but he has only averaged 0.96 yards per route run with 36 catches in 66 career games, so he won’t be much more of a factor in the passing game than Saubert was. This is still a talented receiving corps, even with Deebo Samuel gone, Brandon Aiyuk likely to miss the start of the season, and George Kittle getting older, but they are not the elite unit they were in 2023.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Getting left tackle Trent Williams back from injury will also be a big boost for this offense, though with him coming off of a significant injury and going into his age 37 season, it is fair to question if he will be the same player. Williams has exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in every season since 2011 though, with 10 seasons over 80, including an 85.6 PFF grade last season before his injury, so, even if he isn’t quite the same, the future Hall of Famer should still remain at least an above average left tackle, barring a massive decline.

Left guard Aaron Banks left as a free agent this off-season, one of the few players the 49ers lost this off-season who was actually healthy last season, but he was a middling starter with a 65.4 PFF grade in 13 starts, so it’s not as if he’s irreplaceable. In his place, the 49ers will likely start Ben Bartch. Bartch has only started 22 games in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 11 starts back in 2021, but he has mostly been decent when called upon, finishing above 60 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, and he flashed a lot of potential in limited action last season, with a 74.8 PFF grade across 65 snaps. 

Bartch is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but the 49ers have a history of getting the most out of their offensive lineman, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he proved to be a capable starter. His primary competition for the job is Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 49.6 and 50.4 across 29 starts in his first two seasons in the league, before posting a 57.6 PFF grade across 113 snaps as a reserve in 2024. Bartch should beat him out for Aaron Banks’ old job unless something strange happens.

Center is also somewhat of a concerning position for the 49ers. Jake Brendel remains as the starter, after making all possible 51 starts over the past three seasons, but he has been middling at best in those three seasons, with PFF grades of 64.9, 63.9, and 65.0, and now he heads into his age 33 season and could decline, which would likely push him down into below average starter territory. If Brendel struggles, the 49ers’ other option is Matt Hennessy, a 2020 3rd round pick who excelled as a run blocker with a 88.1 PFF run blocking grade in 17 starts in 2021, but he also struggled mightily in pass protection with a 50.5 PFF pass blocking grade that season and, aside from that season, he has only ever played 398 snaps and started 5 games in his other four seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the 49ers found a steal in the third round of last year’s draft in Dominick Puni, who started all 17 games for the 49ers at right guard last season and was PFF’s 8th highest ranked guard with a 80.5 grade. Even if Puni isn’t quite as good again in 2025, he should remain at least an above average starter and he has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best guards in the league. He’ll continue starting next to right tackle Colton McKivitz, who wasn’t quite as good last season as Puni was at right guard, but who still had a solid season, with a 72.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. 

A 2020 5th round pick, McKivitz played sparingly in his first three seasons in the league, but had a solid 65.1 PFF grade while also making all 17 starts in his first season as a starter in 2023, before taking another step forward in 2024. Now with two solid seasons as a starter under his belt, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025, still only his age 29 season. McKivitz and Trent Williams will likely be backed up by swing tackle DJ Humphries. Humphries finished above 60 on PFF in nine straight seasons from 2015-2023, but he missed 49 games due to injury over that stretch, played just 92 snaps last season primarily as a reserve, and now he is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He’s probably still a good swing tackle option though. The 49ers have some question marks at left guard and center, but this should still remain at least a solid offensive line, especially if left tackle Trent Williams stays healthy and continues to avoid declining for another season, despite his age.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The 49ers didn’t have quite as many injuries on defense as they did on offense, but they did have some key players miss significant time. Stud defensive end Nick Bosa missed three games and he was sorely missed in those three games, as he had a 91.0 PFF grade across 693 snaps, excelling both as a run defender and a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 16 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate, while none of the 49ers’ other edge defenders finished with a PFF grade above 60 on the season. 

Bosa’s dominant play in 2025 when healthy was no surprise, as he has consistently been one of the best defensive players in the league since being the second overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, finishing above 80 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three straight seasons over 90. In total, he has 62.5 sacks, 108 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 82 career games. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Bosa again in 2025 and, aside from last season and a 2020 campaign ended by a torn ACL, he has played at least 16 games in every season in the league, so I wouldn’t necessarily classify him as injury prone.

The rest of the 49ers’ edge defender group could be better this season too, after adding Georgie’s Mykel Williams in the first round of the draft. Williams is raw, particularly as a pass rusher, but he should still be able to be an upgrade as a rookie and he has a huge upside long-term. He figures to replace veteran Leonard Floyd as the starter opposite Bosa and, while Floyd had 8.5 sacks last season, that was mostly because of Bosa facing double teams and causing disruption opposite him, as Floyd finished the season with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps, so it wouldn’t be hard for Williams to be better overall than Floyd was last season.

The rest of this edge defender group consists of holdovers who struggled a year ago, most notably Sam Okuayinonu, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 451 snaps, Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a 51.5 PFF grade across 367 snaps, and Robert Beal, who had a 55.3 PFF grade across 149 snaps. Okuayinonu is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had played just 105 mediocre snaps in his career prior to last season, so he’s unlikely to ever develop into even a useful rotational player. 

Gross-Matos was a second round pick in 2020 by the Panthers, but has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and, now going into his age 27 season, is running out of time to deliver on his upside. Beal was a fifth round pick in 2023 and has shown very little across 188 career snaps. The 49ers are likely to get a healthier season out of Nick Bosa and the addition of Mykel Williams should make the rest of this edge defender group better in 2025 by default, but there are still significant depth concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The 49ers also used significant draft capital on the interior defender position this year, taking Alfred Collins in the second round and CJ West in the fourth round, but this is still an underwhelming position group. Even though they were drafted two rounds apart, Collins and West are similar prospects, earning third round grades from PFF, excelling against the run in their final collegiate season, ranking 5th and 9th in run defense grade on PFF, but also possessing limited athleticism and pass rush upside. 

One or both of Collins and West figure to play a significant role in an unsettled position group this season. Javon Hargrave missed all but 104 snaps in three games last season, so his departure this off-season won’t hurt this team much, nor will the loss of Maliek Collins, who had a 57.9 PFF grade across 715 snaps, but the rest of this position group still consists of a mostly mediocre group of holdovers, including Jordan Elliott (440 snaps), Evan Anderson (267 snaps), Kalia Davis (259 snaps), and Kevin Givens (185 snaps). 

Elliott struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade last season, which is nothing new for him, as the 5-year veteran has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league, including four straight seasons below 50. Davis was also terrible last season with a 47.3 PFF grade, in the first significant action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. Anderson wasn’t terrible last season with a 60.8 PFF grade, but it came in very limited action and he was an undrafted free agent in 2024, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a consistently capable rotational player. Givens, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has averaged 261 snaps per season in his career, while never finishing above 60 on PFF for a season, including three seasons below 50 and a 49.6 PFF grade in 2024. With rookies set to play a big role amidst a mediocre group of holdovers, the interior defender position figures to be a big position of weakness for the 49ers again in 2025.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, linebacker Fred Warner played most of last season through a broken bone in his leg, which makes it even more impressive that he had a 89.2 PFF grade across 997 snaps, while not missing a game. For Warner, it was his fourth season over 80 on PFF in the past five seasons, including a career best 90.2 PFF grade in 2023. In seven seasons in the league, he has missed just one game, while averaging 60.9 snaps per game in an every down role. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025, perhaps even better than a year ago if he’s healthier.

Dee Winters figures to be the 49ers other starting linebacker next to Warner. Winters showed some potential last season with a 66.4 PFF grade across 398 snaps last season, after he took over the starting role down the stretch last season from veteran De’Vondre Campbell, who had a mediocre 58.3 PFF grade across 719 snaps and was not retained this off-season. Winters could continue being a solid starter into 2025, but he was only a 6th round pick in 2023 and struggled across 61 rookie season snaps before showing potential last season, so he’s still very unproven.

The 49ers also don’t have a good alternative if Winters cannot continue playing at the level he played at down the stretch last season. The rest of the 49ers’ linebacker depth chart consists of Luke Gifford, a career special teamer who has played 288 mediocre snaps on defense in six seasons in the league, 2024 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who played just 52 snaps as a rookie, and some former undrafted free agents who have never played a snap. Warner is one of the best and more durable linebackers in the league and Winters at least has potential, but depth is a big concern at this position, particularly if Winters is unable to make good on his upside.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned earlier that the 49ers did not retain Chavarius Ward this off-season, after he had a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps last season. The 49ers also did not bring back Isaac Yiadom, who was also mediocre with a 59.5 PFF grade across 488 snaps. In their absence, the 49ers will be expecting more out of 2024 2nd round pick Renaldo Green, who flashed potential with a 69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps as a rookie and who should be able to translate that into a slightly larger role in 2025, now as a full-time starter opposite fellow holdover Deommodore Lenoir, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 922 snaps in 15 games last season. 

A fifth round pick in 2021, Lenoir took a couple years to develop, struggling with a 57.1 PFF grade across 238 snaps as a rookie and continuing to struggle in a bigger role in his second season in the league with a 55.9 PFF grade across 887 snaps, before breaking out as a starter with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps in his third season in the league in 2023, which he then carried into 2024. He should remain a solid starter this season, still only in his age 26 season.

Green and Lenoir should be a solid starting duo, but the third cornerback role is a bit of a question mark. Free agent addition Tre Brown is probably the favorite for the job and the 2021 fourth round pick wasn’t bad in a similar role with a 62.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps in 2023, but he has played just 566 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, so he’s not the most proven option. His biggest competition for the job will be third round rookie Upton Stout, who played at a high level at a small school at Western Kentucky, but who lacks elite athleticism to make up for his lack of size and, as a result, could struggle to translate his game to the NFL. The 49ers also have Darrell Luter, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 67 snaps in his career, and Tre Avery, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played just 651 snaps over the past three seasons with the Titans and who was not tendered as a restricted free agent this off-season.

The 49ers also didn’t retain Talanoa Hufanga this off-season and he also didn’t contribute in much of a positive way last season, in an injury plagued season in which he had a mediocre 57.8 PFF grade across just 308 snaps in seven games. Malik Mustapha, a 2024 4th round pick, had already taken his starting job even before Hufanga wasn’t re-signed and had a 63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps as a rookie, so he looks like a solid starter long-term, though in the short-term he is questionable for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. If he misses time or isn’t the same right away when he returns, the 49ers would likely turn to free agent acquisition Jason Pinnock. 

Pinnock has made 32 starts over the past two seasons, but has been inconsistent, with a 67.8 PFF grade in 2023, but a 54.5 PFF grade in 2024. He’s not a bad reserve option and spot starter, but the 49ers are definitely hoping Mustapha can return sooner rather than later. The 49ers also signed Richie Grant this off-season, a 2021 2nd round pick who started 32 games for the Falcons between the 2022 and 2023 season, but who was also inconsistent, with a 64.9 PFF grade in 2022 and a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023, before being benched and playing just 165 snaps in 2024. Like Pinnock, Grant is an option to start in Mustapha’s absence, but would be best as a reserve.

Ji’Ayir Brown is locked into one of the starting safety jobs. A 2023 3rd round pick, Brown flashed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps and, while he couldn’t quite translate that into a larger role in 2024, he still wasn’t bad with a 64.8 PFF grade across 886 snaps and, now in his third season in the league, he has the upside to take a step forward. He should at least be a capable starter, with the upside to develop into an above average starter. This isn’t a great secondary, but, even with some off-season losses, they aren’t really any worse in the secondary than they were a year ago. 

Grade: B-

Kicker

The 49ers used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on kicker Jake Moody, but he has been a huge disappointment thus far, costing the 49ers 3.71 points below average as a rookie and then plummeting to 12.2 points below average in 2024, third worst in the NFL. The 49ers did not bring in another kicker this off-season, so they are giving Moody another chance and he could be better than a year ago, but he also figures to be on a pretty short leash and could be replaced with a free agent mid-season if he struggles. 

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The 49ers won just six games last season, but they were much better than their record suggested, ranking 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more productive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record, and they did that despite being by far the most injury plagued team in the league. The 49ers seemingly lost a lot in free agency this off-season, but the majority of the players they lost this off-season either missed significant chunks of last season or did not play at a high level. Most of the core from the team who made the Super Bowl two seasons ago is still there and, while this team isn’t as good overall as they were two years ago, they’re still much more talented than you would think if you just looked at their record last season and the off-season they had. They also go from having arguably the toughest schedule in the league last season to arguably the easiest this season. They should win among the most games in the NFC this season.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

2025 NFL Mock Draft Day 2

stevenlourie Uncategorized

33. Cleveland Browns – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)

34. Houston Texans – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)

35. Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)

36. Cleveland Browns – DE Mike Green (Marshall)

37. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

38. New England Patriots – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)

39. Chicago Bears – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

40. New Orleans Saints – QB Tyler Shough (Cincinnati)

41. Chicago Bears – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)

42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

44. Dallas Cowboys – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)

45. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)

46. Los Angeles Rams – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)

47. Arizona Cardinals – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)

48. Miami Dolphins – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

49. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)

50. Seattle Seahawks – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)

51. Denver Broncos – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)

52. Seattle Seahawks – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)

53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)

54. Green Bay Packers – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)

55. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)

56. Buffalo Bills – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)

57. Carolina Panthers – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)

58. Houston Texans – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)

59. Baltimore Ravens – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)

60. Detroit Lions – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)

61. Washington Commanders – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)

62. Buffalo Bills – WR Jack Bech (TCU)

63. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)

64. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)

65. New York Giants – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)

66. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)

67. Cleveland Browns – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)

68. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)

69. New England Patriots – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)

71. New Orleans Saints – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)

72. Chicago Bears – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)

73. New York Jets – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)

74. Carolina Panthers – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)

75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)

76. Dallas Cowboys – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)

77. New England Patriots – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)

78. Arizona Cardinals – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)

79. Houston Texans – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)

80. Indianapolis Colts – G Tate Rutledge (Georgia)

81. Cincinnati Bengals – G Miles Frazier (LSU)

82. Seattle Seahawks – WR Tai Felton (Maryland)

83. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)

85. Denver Broncos – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)

86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)

87. Green Bay Packers – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)

88. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)

89. Houston Texans – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)

90. Los Angeles Rams – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)

91. Baltimore Ravens – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)

92. Seattle Seahawks – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)

93. New Orleans Saints – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)

94. Cleveland Browns – WR Tory Horton (Colorado State)

95. Kansas City Chiefs – S Andrew Mukaba (Texas)

96. Philadelphia Eagles – S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)

97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Nohl Williams (California)

98. Miami Dolphins – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)

99. Houston Texans – DE Sai’vion Jones (LSU)

100. San Francisco 49ers – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)

101. Atlanta Falcons – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)

102. Detroit Lions – WR Savion Williams (TCU)

2025 NFL Mock Draft (Final)

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() in trades is the pick value on NFL Draft trade value chart

  1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward (Miami)
  2. Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)
  3. New York Giants – DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)
  4. Chicago Bears (TRADE) – RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Chicago gives 10 (1300) and 39 (510) for 4 (1800)

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham (Michigan)
  2. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Will Campbell (LSU)
  3. New York Jets – OT Armand Membou (Missouri)
  4. Carolina Panthers – DE Jalon Walker (Georgia)
  5. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE) – TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Indianapolis gives 14 (1100), 45 (450), and 151 (31) for 9 (1350) and 71 (235)

  1. New England Patriots (TRADE) – OT Kelvin Banks (Texans)
  2. Denver Broncos (TRADE) – RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Denver gives 20 (850) and 51 (390) for 11 (1250)

  1. Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetaiora McMillan (Arizona State)
  2. Miami Dolphins – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)
  3. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – QB Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
  4. Atlanta Falcons – DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)
  5. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Cleveland gives 33 (580), 67 (255), and a 2026 2nd round pick for 16 (1000)

  1. Houston Texans (TRADE) – OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

Houston gives 25 (720), 79 (195), and a 2026 4th round pick for 17 (950)

  1. Seattle Seahawks – TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)
  3. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DT Walter Nolen (Mississippi)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers – DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)
  6. Green Bay Packers – DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)
  7. Minnesota Vikings – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)
  8. Cincinnati Bengals (TRADE) – DE Mike Green (Marshall)
  9. Los Angeles Rams – CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)
  10. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
  11. New England Patriots (TRADE) – WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

New England gives 38 (520) and 69 (245) for 28 (660) and 102 (92)

  1. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)

Arizona gives 33 (580) and 115 (64) for 29 (640)

  1. Buffalo Bills – DE James Pearce (Tennessee)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)
  4. Washington Commanders (TRADE) – S Malaki Starks (Georgia)
  5. New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
  6. Tennessee Titans – WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)
  8. Las Vegas Raiders – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
  9. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – G Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
  10. New England Patriots (TRADE) – G Tyler Booker (Alabama)
  11. New Orleans Saints – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)
  12. Chicago Bears – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)
  13. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)
  14. San Francisco 49ers – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)
  15. Dallas Cowboys – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)
  16. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)
  17. Atlanta Falcons – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)
  18. Arizona Cardinals – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)
  19. Miami Dolphins – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)
  20. Cincinnati Bengals – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)
  21. Seattle Seahawks – G Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
  22. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)
  23. Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)
  24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)
  25. Green Bay Packers – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)
  26. Los Angeles Chargers – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)
  27. Buffalo Bills – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE) – QB Tyler Shough (Louisville)

Pittsburgh gives 83 (175) and a 2026 2nd round pick for 57 (330)

  1. Houston Texans – WR Jack Bech (TCU)
  2. Baltimore Ravens – DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)
  3. Detroit Lions – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)
  4. Washington Commanders – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)
  5. Buffalo Bills – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)
  6. Kansas City Chiefs – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)
  7. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)
  8. New York Giants – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)
  9. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)
  10. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)
  11. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)
  12. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)
  13. Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)
  14. Indianapolis Colts – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)
  15. Chicago Bears – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)
  16. New York Jets – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)
  17. Carolina Panthers – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)
  18. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)
  19. Dallas Cowboys – G Tate Rutledge (Georgia)
  20. New England Patriots – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)
  21. Arizona Cardinals – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)
  22. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)
  23. Indianapolis Colts – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)
  24. Cincinnati Bengals – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)
  25. Seattle Seahawks – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)
  26. Carolina Panthers (TRADE) – WR Tai Felton (Maryland)
  27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)
  28. Denver Broncos – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)
  29. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)
  30. Green Bay Packers – WR Tory Horton (Colorado State)
  31. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)
  32. Houston Texans – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)
  33. Los Angeles Rams – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)
  34. Baltimore Ravens – G Miles Frazier (LSU)
  35. Seattle Seahawks – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)
  36. New Orleans Saints – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)
  37. Cleveland Browns – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)
  38. Kansas City Chiefs – RB DJ Giddens (Kansas State)
  39. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)
  40. Minnesota Vikings – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)
  41. Miami Dolphins – S Andrew Mukuba (Texas)
  42. New York Giants – TE Mitchell Evans (Notre Dame)
  43. San Francisco 49ers – RB Jordan James (Oregon)
  44. Los Angeles Rams – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)
  45. New England Patriots (TRADE) – RB RJ Harvey (Central Florida)

2025 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Updated 4/16/25

*Had a private workout with the team

1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward (Miami)*

The Titans have all but announced that Cam Ward will be their pick here, cancelling private workouts with all other options. Earlier in the draft process, there was some thought that the Titans weren’t thrilled with their options and might trade down, but Ward is far and away the best quarterback prospect in a weak quarterback draft, even if he might not truly be an elite prospect, and the Titans don’t have another good option at the position.

2. Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)*

The Browns desperately need a quarterback, but it doesn’t sound like they are sold enough on any quarterback other than Cam Ward to take one here and, with Ward almost definitely going to be off the board, the Browns are likely to go in another direction. Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are the two best players in this draft and both would be great picks for the Browns, but it sounds like they prefer Travis Hunter, which makes sense, because he fills a bigger need. 

3. New York Giants – DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)*

The Giants are in a similar situation as the Browns, desperately needing a quarterback, but unsold on any of the available options. They will likely just take whichever of Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter the Browns don’t take. The Giants are probably hoping for Hunter because he fills a bigger need, but I don’t think they would be unhappy with Carter. Perhaps this selection would be followed by a trade of Kayvon Thibadeoux, who has been solid, but hasn’t really lived up to the billing of being a top-5 pick and who has just one more year before his expensive 5th year option kicks in.

4. New England Patriots – OT Will Campbell (LSU)*

The Patriots are obviously hoping that either the Browns or Giants get desperate for a quarterback and reach on one in the top-3, allowing either Hunter or Carter to fall to them at 4, but that seems unlikely at this point. The Patriots’ second best option would be to trade out of this pick to accumulate additional picks, but it’s unclear if there is anyone available at this spot that any team would want to give up significant draft capital to move up for. If the Patriots stay put, Will Campbell seems like the favorite. He’s not an elite left tackle prospect because of his short arms and lack of top end athleticism, but the Patriots desperately need offensive line help and, even if Campbell ends up not being able to play left tackle long-term, he almost definitely will be an above average starter for them somewhere for years to come. 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham (Michigan)

Coming into the off-season, the Jaguars biggest needs were offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver, and defensive tackle, in some order. In free agency, they signed cornerback Jourdan Lewis to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal, wide receiver Dyami Brown to a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, and offensive linemen Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari to deals worth 21 million over 3 years and 37.5 million over 3 years respectively, but they didn’t add anyone at the defensive tackle position. It’s possible the Jaguars still address one of those other positions, but it’s more likely that their free agent signings were telling of their plans with this pick and there is a strong argument to be made that Graham is best available anyway. 

6. Las Vegas Raiders – RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)*

The Raiders addressed their quarterback need by trading for Geno Smith, so now they can address other needs or take the best player available. Taking Ashton Jeanty here arguably accomplishes both of those goals. You could make the argument that he is the best player in the draft overall, but because he is a running back, he is unlikely to go in the top-5, given the needs of those teams and the relatively low position value of running backs. Despite one of the thinnest running back rooms in the league, the Raiders didn’t do much to address the position in free agency, perhaps signaling their intention with this pick. New head coach Pete Carroll could easily see Jeanty as his next Marshawn Lynch, a player Jeanty is frequently compared to.

7. New York Jets – OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

The Jets could go three different directions with this pick and none of them would surprise me. They could address their receiving corps, either with wide receiver Tet McMillan or tight end Tyler Warren, or they could take offensive tackle Armand Membou and play him opposite last year’s first round pick Olu Fashanu, without another good offensive tackle option on the roster. Membou has more positional value than Warren and seems to generally be higher rated than McMillan, so I would consider him the favorite, but none of those three options would surprise me.

8. Carolina Panthers – DE Jalon Walker (Georgia)*

The Panthers have a few options here, including the top tight end Tyler Warren, but it is starting to seem like the Panthers would prefer to improve their terrible defense and that Jalon Walker would be their preferred choice to accomplish that goal. He would be a big upgrade for a Panthers team that hasn’t replaced Brian Burns after trading him last off-season and that is currently led at the edge defender position by Jadeveon Clowney, who is heading into his age 32 season.

9. New Orleans Saints – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)*

It looks unlikely that Shedeur Sanders will be the top-3 pick he looked likely to be a month or so ago, but the Saints are desperate enough at the quarterback position that they might stop his slide at 9. Derek Carr is just a stopgap option and he might not even be that if he either gets shoulder surgery that jeopardizes his 2025 season or if he manages to force his way out of New Orleans, where it doesn’t seem like he wants to be. Jaxson Dart is also a possibility here, even over Sanders, and if the Saints knew they had Derek Carr as a stopgap for a year I think Dart would be the pick, but Sanders is by far the more NFL ready of the two and whichever quarterback is selected here might not have the luxury of setting and learning.

10. Chicago Bears – DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)*

The Bears could address the offensive line, which was their biggest need going into the off-season, but they don’t have an obvious spot for a rookie to start on the offensive line, having added three starting caliber offensive linemen already this off-season, and it’s unlikely they would use this pick on a player they expect to be a reserve in year one. The Bears also added edge defender Dayo Odeyingbo this off-season, but he’s a mediocre option and ideally the Bears would have at least three edge defenders they can rely on to rotate with each other, including top edge defender Montez Sweat. The Bears have several good options at this point, but Stewart is the only one they’ve worked out privately, so he may be their preferred choice.

11. San Francisco 49ers – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

The 49ers have a lot of areas they could address after significant losses this off-season, so they might just end up taking the best player available. That could easily be Will Johnson, who would also fill a big need, after the 49ers lost both Chavarius Ward and Isaac Yiadom this off-season. Johnson could start for them immediately along with top holdover Deommodore Lenoir and second year player Renaldo Green.

12. Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)*

The Cowboys really don’t have much on the depth chart opposite Ceedee Lamb, so if McMillan falls to them at 12, the Cowboys will at least strongly consider him. Of the options on the board, he makes the most sense for them at this juncture.

13. Miami Dolphins – CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)

The Dolphins lost Kendall Fuller without replacing him this off-season and are rumored to be interested in moving on from expensive veteran Jalen Ramsey this off-season as well. Even if they keep Ramsey, a cornerback could easily be in play with the 13th pick. Barron doesn’t have the tools and upside that Will Johnson has, but he’s a better football player right now and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up going earlier than Johnson. Even if he doesn’t, I don’t expect him to wait much longer for his name to be called, with cornerback being a premium position and with this year’s cornerback class being relatively weak at the top.

14. Indianapolis Colts – TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

No team targeted tight ends less often in 2024 than the Colts, who targeted tight ends just 73 targets, with no tight end catching more than 14 passes. Part of that is Anthony Richardson’s tendency to throw the ball deep to wide receivers, but a lack of talent at the tight end position is part of the problem too as well and Richardson might not be the Colts’ primary starting quarterback in 2025 anyway. Loveland would give either Richardson or Daniel Jones a talented receiving target over the middle.

15. Atlanta Falcons – DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)

The Falcons’ had the second fewest sacks in the league last season with 31 and no player topped 6 sacks, so the Falcons have a clear need for edge rush help. The Falcons signed Leonard Floyd in free agency, but he is on a one-year deal and going into his age 33 season, so that move doesn’t preclude the Falcons from using their first round pick on an edge defender.

16. Arizona Cardinals – OT Kelvin Banks (Texas)

The Cardinals addressed their defensive front in free agency and now seem likely to address their offensive line early in the draft. Starting right tackle Jonah Williams is injury prone and in a contract year, while swing tackle Kelvin Beachum is heading into his age 36 season, so the Cardinals should look to find a potential long-term starting option through the draft. Banks could start at guard for the Cardinals in 2025, before kicking to right tackle in 2026 and beyond. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)*

The Bengals’ missed the playoffs last season despite a great offensive performance because of their defensive struggles, so it seems likely that defense will be where the Bengals go with this pick. Nick Emmanwori is someone they have shown a lot of interest in and makes sense at this juncture. He’s a versatile defender who can make an impact right away.

18. Seattle Seahawks – TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)

Noah Fant has never developed into the above average starting tight end the Seahawks were hoping the former first round pick could become when they acquired him from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade. He has just one year left on his contract and the Seahawks may look to shoot higher in the draft. If Colston Loveland is still on the board at 18, it would make sense for the Seahawks to take him.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

The Buccaneers addressed a need at edge defender in free agency this off-season by signing Haason Reddick, but he is on a one-year deal and going into his age 31 season, so that signing won’t preclude the Buccaneers from taking an edge defender like Jihaad Campbell in the first round.

20. Denver Broncos – RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Head Coach Sean Payton spoke about the Broncos’ need to add playmakers at running back and tight end this off-season. They added Evan Engram in free agency to improve their tight end room, but still haven’t done anything to improve a running back room that is one of the worst in the league. Hampton has three-down potential and could be a big addition to the Broncos’ offense.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)*

The Steelers could still sign Aaron Rodgers, but, even if they do, a pick like Jaxson Dart would make sense, given that Rodgers is going into his age 42 season and will likely only be signed to a 1-year deal. Dart has a high upside and he would benefit from sitting for a year behind a veteran like Rodgers if the Steelers have that option.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)

The Chargers reunite Jim Harbaugh with one of his players from the University of Michigan and fill a big need at defensive tackle, where Poona Ford wasn’t retained this off-season. 

23. Green Bay Packers – WR Matthew Golden (Texas)*

The Packers had a solid receiving corps last season, but Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are heading into the final years of their rookie deals and it seems unlikely that both will be re-signed. Watson is also highly questionable for most of the 2025 season after a late-season ACL tear in 2024. Matthew Golden could have an instant impact with Watson out and could develop into the #1 long-term number one receiver that might not be on their roster right now, with Jayden Reed currently penciled into that role.

24. Minnesota Vikings – S Malaki Starks (Georgia)

The Vikings use three safeties together as frequently as any team in the league and need to add to that position group this off-season, with Cam Bynum signing with the Colts and Harrison Smith going into his age 36 season.

25. Houston Texans – OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

The Texans have added a bunch of offensive lineman through trade or free agency this off-season as they look to overhaul what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but all of the players they added are either on one-year deals or in the final year of their contract, so the Texans will likely look to draft an offensive lineman early as well.

26. Los Angeles Rams – CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)

The Rams have done a great job reloading their defensive front through the draft over the past two years, but their secondary still needs addressing. Even as a rookie, Hairston would have a good chance to start for this team immediately.

27. Baltimore Ravens – DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)

The Ravens have a pair of talented interior defenders in Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, but have a severe lack of depth now with Michael Pierce opting to retire this off-season. The Ravens will have several options to replace him late in the first round, including Derrick Harmon.

28. Detroit Lions – DE Mike Green (Marshall)

The Lions are getting Aidan Hutchinson back from injury in 2025, but they could use an upgrade opposite him long-term. They brought back Marcus Davenport in free agency, but he is only on a one-year deal and has missed 47 of a possible 116 games in seven seasons in the league, so his return doesn’t preclude the Lions from addressing the edge defender position in a first round where 7-8 edge defenders are likely to come off the board.

29. Washington Commanders – DE James Pearce (Tennessee)

The Commanders retained Dante Fowler in free agency and signed Deatrich Wise, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and neither will preclude the Commanders from taking an edge defender early in the draft. In a deep edge defender class, the Commanders should have their choice of a couple options late in the first round.

30. Buffalo Bills – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

The Bills signed Joey Bosa to replace Von Miller as a pass rush specialist, but he’s often injured, going into his age 30 season, and is only on a one-year deal, so the Bills could still address this position early in the draft. Ezeiruaku could contribute immediately as a rotational player and has the upside to develop into an above average starter opposite Greg Rousseau long-term. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Walter Nolen (Mississippi)

The Chiefs are pretty thin at defensive tackle other than Chris Jones, who lines up at defensive end on occasion. The Chiefs could have some options to play inside next to Jones available to them late in the first round and could easily pull the trigger on one of them, including Walter Nolen, who remains on the board in this scenario.

32. Philadelphia Eagles – G Tyler Booker (Alabama)

The strength of the Eagles last season was their offensive line, but they lost right guard Mekhi Becton in free agency this off-season. They took a flier on former first round pick bust Kenyon Green as a potential replacement and they have 2023 3rd round pick Tyler Steen as well, but neither of those two will preclude the Eagles from addressing the position early in the draft if the right player falls to them. Tyler Booker, the best pure guard prospect in the draft, could be that player if he’s still on the board at 32.

33. Cleveland Browns – QB Tyler Shough (Louisville)*

If the Browns don’t take a quarterback in the first round, Tyler Shough would make sense for them at the top of the second round.

34. New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)*

Like the Browns, the Giants passed on a quarterback in the first round and take one at the top of the second round instead.

35. Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)

Teams who take a quarterback in the first round usually use their next pick on a supporting offensive player. The Titans spent significant money on the offensive line in free agency, but still need another wide receiver, with little on the depth chart behind Calvin Ridley.

36. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)

The Jaguars signed Dyami Brown in free agency, but he was only signed on a one-year deal, so they will likely look to add another pass catcher relatively early in the draft.

37. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)

The Raiders are very thin at cornerback after losing Nate Hobbs in free agency. Thomas is a potential first round pick who is unlikely to last long on day two if he isn’t taken in the first round.

38. New England Patriots – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)

The Patriots will have to take a wide receiver at some point relatively early in the draft. If they can’t get Travis Hunter in the first round, someone like Tre Harris makes sense in the second round.

39. Chicago Bears – OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)*

The Bears added three new offensive line starters this off-season and look to have a solid starting five, but they could still add another offensive lineman through the draft, particularly one like Conerly who has the versatility to play inside and outside. Left tackle Braxton Jones and Joe Thuney are free agents next off-season.

40. New Orleans Saints – G Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

If the Saints take a quarterback in the first round, they will likely look to support him with this pick. Ryan Ramcyzk is likely never playing again due to injuries, while Trevor Penning, his replacement in 2024, was underwhelming and could potentially move to guard long-term. With an unsettled situation at both tackle and guard, the Saints should draft an offensive lineman at some point in the draft. Zabel can play both spots and, considering he could have gone in the first round, he’s a good value at this point in the draft.

41. Chicago Bears – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)

With Keenan Allen unsigned, the Bears don’t have a good third receiver on the roster and could look to the draft for one.

42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)

The Jets passed on Tyler Warren in the first round, but will have to find a tight end at some point, as they are very thin at the position now with Tyler Conklin no longer on the team.

43. San Francisco 49ers – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)*

Defensive tackle is another big position of need for the 49ers, with both Maliek Collins and Javon Hargrave leaving this off-season. Someone like TJ Sanders, who they worked out privately, would make sense in the second round.

44. Dallas Cowboys – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)*

The Cowboys have one of the thinnest running back rooms in the league and, if they don’t address this position in the first round, they will have to find a running back on day 2.

45. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)*

Shavon Revel would have been a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL midway through last season. Still, I don’t expect him to last long into day two and the Colts, who worked him out privately, are one of the teams that will know his injury situation the best. He could push for an immediate role behind Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore in an unsettled cornerback room and gives them a long-term #1 option, with Ward and Moore going into their age 29 and age 30 seasons respectively.

46. Atlanta Falcons – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)

After addressing the edge defender position in the first round, cornerback is the next logical spot for the Falcons to address, as it was a position of weakness a year ago and no major additions have been made this off-season.

47. Arizona Cardinals – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)

The Cardinals addressed their pass rush in free agency with Josh Sweat and now could turn to the draft to address their secondary. Morrison could compete for a significant role as a rookie in an unsettled position group.

48. Miami Dolphins – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)

The Dolphins lost Da’Shawn Hand and Calais Campbell in free agency, so they are now very thin at the interior defender position and really need to add talent through the draft.

49. Cincinnati Bengals – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)*

In addition to all of their defensive needs, the Bengals need help on the offensive line, particularly at guard, where they got poor play at both spots in 2024. Jonah Savaiinaea, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the second round and could be a starter as a rookie.

50. Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)

The Seahawks added Cooper Kupp as a replacement for DK Metcalf, but he is going into his age 32 season and no one else on the Seahawks’ roster right now seems to have the upside to be a long-term #2 opposite Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so the Seahawks will likely draft a wide receiver at some point.

51. Denver Broncos – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)

The Broncos could use more depth at the edge defender position, after trading away Baron Browning at the deadline last season. Burch is a versatile player who can play both on the edge and on the interior.

52. Seattle Seahawks – G Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)

The Seahawks haven’t done much of note to address their terrible offensive line. With five picks in the first three rounds of the draft, expect them to come out of the first two days of the draft with at least a couple offensive linemen, even if they don’t take one in the first.

53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)*

The Buccaneers need more interior defensive line help and Omarr Norman-Lott is someone they have worked out privately.

54. Green Bay Packers – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)

Even after signing Nate Hobbs in free agency, cornerback is still a position of need for the Packers, given Jaire Alexander’s injury history. Alexander is also an option to be traded on draft day or released as a cap casualty later this off-season.

55. Los Angeles Chargers – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)*

The tight end position is a big part of offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s offense and Will Dissly was overstretched as their top receiving tight end a year ago, so they will probably look to add another tight end through the draft. Mason Taylor, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the second round. He could make an immediate impact even as a rookie.

56. Buffalo Bills – DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)*

The Bills are expected to start DaQuan Jones in his age 34 season at the interior defender position this season, so they could use an early draft pick on a long-term replacement next to Ed Oliver.

57. Carolina Panthers – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)*

Carson Schwesinger is arguably the top off ball linebacker in a weak class and the Panthers have worked him out privately. Drafting him in the second round would make sense, given that the Panthers just let go of veteran Shaq Thompson and have an unsettled group behind veteran Josey Jewell.

58. Houston Texans – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)*

Joe Mixon is heading into his age 29 season with 1,816 career carries, so he probably won’t be able to be a good feature back for much longer. The Texans should look to add better depth behind him to provide an insurance policy and to keep Mixon fresher late in the season. Quinshon Judkins, who the Texans have worked out privately, would make sense in the second round.

59. Baltimore Ravens – WR Jack Bech (TCU)

The Ravens signed DeAndre Hopkins this off-season, but is in his age 33 season and only signed to a one-year deal, so the Ravens could still add a wide receiver relatively early in the draft.

60. Detroit Lions – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)

More depth could be added at the defensive tackle position for the Lions, with Alim McNeil coming off of a torn ACL, DJ Reader going into his age 31 season, and reserves Levi Onwuzurike and Roy Lopez only on one-year deals.

61. Washington Commanders – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)

The Commanders lost Jeremy Chinn in free agency and replaced him with Will Harris, who is better off as a reserve. Even as a second round rookie it wouldn’t be hard for Watts to become their best safety, with their other projected starter Quan Martin also being an underwhelming option.

62. Buffalo Bills – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)

The Bills signed Josh Palmer in free agency, but still lack a clear #1 receiver and could take a chance on adding a wide receiver with upside who can at least provide needed depth in the short-term.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)*

The Chiefs signed Jaylon Moore to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season because of their desperation at the left tackle position, but Moore has just 12 career starts and could easily disappoint. They will probably draft another option relatively early, especially since right tackle Jawaan Taylor, a disappointing free agent signing, could be a cap casualty next off-season.

64. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)*

The Eagles love to have a deep defensive line and lost Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham to free agency and retirement respectively this off-season. They added some short-term replacements and still have a pretty deep group, but they could add a draft pick to the mix as well.

65. New York Giants – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)*

The Giants offensive line isn’t quite as bad as it used to be, but they could still use more depth for when injuries inevitably strike. Mbow is a versatile option that they have worked out privately. 

66. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)

Running back isn’t a big need for the Chiefs, but they don’t have a clear long-term option on the roster, with Isiah Pacheco going into the final year of his rookie deal. Skattebo’s pass catching ability makes him a good fit for the Chiefs.

67. Cleveland Browns – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)

With Jedrick Wills unsigned in free agency, the Browns will need to add a new left tackle option in the draft.

68. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)*

The Raiders added Geno Smith this off-season as a stopgap quarterback, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so adding a developmental option behind him makes sense. They have had a private workout with Will Howard, a potential third round pick, who would be reuniting with his collegiate offensive coordinator Chip Kelly in Las Vegas.

69. New England Patriots – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)*

If the Patriots don’t end up with Abdul Carter in the first round, they will probably look to add defensive end depth in the mid rounds. Nic Scourton, who the Patriots have worked out privately, would make sense in the third round.

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)

The Jaguars have a talented defensive end duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but they could use more depth behind them.

71. New Orleans Saints – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)*

The Saints started their rebuild when they shipped expensive veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders for draft picks at the trade deadline this year. They will be looking for a younger, cheaper replacement for him in the draft.

72. Chicago Bears – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)

The Bears have D’Andre Swift, but will probably try to find a better complement for him to try to recreate the two back offense new head coach Ben Johnson ran successfully in Detroit.

73. New York Jets – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)*

The Jets’ #2 receiver right now is Allen Lazard, who they are looking to cut or trade. The Jets badly need more wide receiver depth behind Garrett Wilson.

74. Carolina Panthers – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)*

The Panthers could use help at the tight end position, where they didn’t have a player with more than 33 catches last season.

75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)

The 49ers need help all over their offensive line. Charles Grant could be a long-term replacement for Trent Williams, who is heading into his age 37 season. Even if he can’t play left tackle long-term, he could develop into a starter somewhere else on the 49ers’ offensive line.

76. Dallas Cowboys – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)*

The Cowboys kept Osa Odighizuwa in free agency, but 2023 1st round pick Mazi Smith has been a massive bust thus far, so the Cowboys need to add another option.

77. New England Patriots – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)*

The Patriots could use more depth at defensive tackle, particularly with Christian Barmore coming off of a lost season due to serious medical issues.

78. Arizona Cardinals – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)

Michael Wilson is an underwhelming #2 receiver opposite Marvin Harrison and the Cardinals don’t have much depth behind them, so they could add another developmental receiving option in the draft.

79. Philadelphia Eagles – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)

The Eagles traded CJ Gardner-Johnson in a cost cutting move and will likely turn to 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown as a starting safety this season, but in case he struggles, the Eagles will need another option.

80. Indianapolis Colts – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)

The Colts lost Ryan Kelly in free agency. They’re moving Tanor Bortolini from guard to center, but if they found a long-term starter at center in the draft, they could keep Bortolini at guard long-term, where he would replace fellow free agent departure Will Fries, who is currently being replaced by Matt Goncalves, who is moving to guard from right tackle, where Braden Smith is in the final year of his contract. After losing multiple starters on the offensive line this off-season, I expect them to take at least one offensive lineman early. Wilson is probably the best pure center in the draft.

81. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)*

The Bengals continue to add to their defense through the draft. Ty Robinson had a private workout with the team and would make sense in the third round.

82. Seattle Seahawks – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)

The Seahawks need multiple upgrades on the offensive line, so expect them to take at least two offensive linemen with their five picks in the first three rounds.

83. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)*

The Steelers will likely give Jaylen Warren a bigger role with Najee Harris gone, but they should add another back to rotate with him. Dylan Sampson is one of several running backs the Steelers have had a private workout with and he’s probably their best option at this juncture.

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Jaylen Reed (Penn State)

The Buccaneers didn’t bring back Jordan Whitehead this off-season and will probably add an option to replace him through the draft.

85. Denver Broncos – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)*

The Broncos filled a big need at tight end by signing Evan Engram in free agency, but he’s going into his age 31 season, so the Broncos could still add a developmental option behind him in the draft. Gunnar Helm, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the third round.

86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)

The Chargers re-signed Khalil Mack in free agency, but only to a 1-year deal and he is going into his age 34 season. Meanwhile, Joey Bosa was made a cap casualty. Young edge defender help is needed.

87. Green Bay Packers – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)

Lukas Van Ness has been disappointing as a 2023 1st round pick and the Packers should look to add more depth at the edge defender position in case he doesn’t take a step forward in year three.

88. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)

The Jaguars seem comfortable with Brenton Strange taking over as the starter for the released Evan Engram, but they could use more depth behind him.

89. Houston Texans – WR Isaiah Bond (Texas)

The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to replace Stefon Diggs this off-season, but that won’t preclude the Texans from taking a wide receiver relatively early in the draft, as Kirk is heading into a contract year and Tank Dell could potentially miss the whole 2025 season with injury.

90. Los Angeles Rams – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)

Right tackle Rob Havenstein is heading into his age 33 season and swing tackle Joe Noteboom wasn’t retained this off-season, so the Rams will likely add a developmental offensive tackle at some point in the draft.

91. Baltimore Ravens – G Tate Ratledge (Georgia)

With Patrick Mekari leaving as a free agent, the Ravens need to find an upgrade at least at one guard spot, possibly two if Daniel Faalele doesn’t take a step forward next season.

92. Seattle Seahawks – S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)

Coby Bryant took a big step forward as a starting safety in 2024, but they don’t have much depth at the position and should add another option in case Bryant regresses in 2025, which also happens to be the final year of Bryant’s rookie deal.

93. New Orleans Saints – WR Elic Ayomanor (Stanford)

The Saints signed Brandin Cooks to be their #3 receiver this off-season, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so the Saints could use a younger developmental option behind him, especially with their top-2 receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both having a history of injury.

94. Cleveland Browns – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)

The Browns don’t have much at running back behind Jerome Ford, who is best as part of a committee. The Browns could still re-sign Nick Chubb, but it’s unclear if he’ll ever be close to the running back he was before his injury.

95. Kansas City Chiefs – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)

The Chiefs lost Justin Reid in free agency and didn’t replace him, so the Chiefs will at least need to replenish their depth at the position through the draft.

96. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)

The Eagles signed Adoree Jackson as a replacement for Darius Slay, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and he is going into his age 30 season, so the Eagles should look to add a developmental option behind him in the draft.

97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Upton Stout (Western Kentucky)

The Vikings could use more depth at cornerback after some off-season losses.

98. Miami Dolphins – OT Logan Brown (Kansas)

The Dolphins have numerous pressing needs and might not be able to address their offensive line earlier than this, but their offensive line is also a pressing need, particularly in the wake of left tackle Terron Armstead’s retirement.

99. New York Giants – RB DJ Giddens (Kansas State)

The Giants have a promising young back in Tyrone Tracy, but it’s unclear if he can carry the load as a feature back. The Giants have veteran Devin Singletary as a complement, but he is overpaid for his role, so the Giants may look to add another young back in the mid rounds of the draft.

100. San Francisco 49ers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)

The 49ers missed out on adding Joey Bosa as a complement for his brother Nick Bosa, so they will probably have to look to the draft to add more talent on the edge.

101. Los Angeles Rams – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)

The Rams have a good young edge defender duo in Byron Young and Jared Verse, but their depth behind them is suspect.

102. Detroit Lions – WR Savion Williams (TCU)

Tim Patrick is expected to be the Lions’ #3 receiver in 2025, but he is going into his age 32 season with a significant injury history, so the Lions should add an insurance option through the draft.

2020 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Cincinnati Bengals – QB Joe Burrow (LSU)

This draft could go down as one of the best quarterback drafts of all time, but the Bengals wouldn’t think twice about making this pick again, as Joe Burrow has single-handedly made this team relevant again after being selected #1 overall by a 2-win team, taking them to the Super Bowl in his second season and then back to the AFC Championship in his third. He’s missed the playoffs entirely in his other three seasons, twice because of injury and most recently because of a terrible defense, but Burrow is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league and should keep the Bengals in contention for years to come, as long as he stays healthy. In total, Burrow has started 69 regular season games, going 38-30-1, completing 68.6% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 140 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in those games and additionally winning five post-season games, as many as the Bengals had won in their previous 39 seasons before Burrow. 

2. Washington Redskins – QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)

While Burrow was an easy decision, this is where it gets tricky. The Redskins (now Commanders) would obviously take a quarterback here if they had the chance to do this all over again, as they originally passed on addressing the position in favor of selecting defensive end Chase Young, because they had 2019 1st round pick Dwayne Haskins, who would prove to be a bust. The Commanders would eventually find their quarterback in Jayden Daniels in the 2024 Draft, but they have the opportunity to get the game’s most important position right four years earlier in this scenario.

Jalen Hurts is obviously a strong candidate here, fresh off winning Super Bowl MVP, but he didn’t start until late in his rookie season, then was decent, but unspectacular in his second season as a starter, before breaking out in his third season, while Justin Herbert has been consistent throughout his career, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and then going on to complete 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.21 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 45 interceptions in 79 starts across his five seasons in the league, while going 41-38, despite consistent issues with the team around him.

Even if you think Hurts is the better of the two quarterbacks as of this writing, there is still a strong case to be made that, when you take the entirety of the last five seasons into account, Herbert has overall been the better of the two. He obviously hasn’t had the team success that Hurts has, but he also hasn’t had anywhere near the same team around him. In addition to benefiting from a great team around him, Hurts also benefited from not having to play right away in Philadelphia, two luxuries he wouldn’t be afforded if Washington made him the 2nd overall pick. I’ve gone back and forth on this one many times, but ultimately Herbert made more sense for the situation Washington was in five years ago.

3. Detroit Lions – WR Justin Jefferson (LSU)

The Lions could also take Hurts here, but they had Matt Stafford for another year and pretty seamlessly transitioned from the Stafford era to the Jared Goff era, so I think they would address another position here, even with great quarterback options still left on the board. This draft had a lot of great players, but I think you’d have a hard time arguing that Justin Jefferson isn’t the best non-quarterback from this draft. Arguably the league’s best receiver, Jefferson had a ridiculous 88/1400/7 slash line even as a rookie and has averaged an even more ridiculous 109/1641/9 slash line per 17 games throughout his career. He’d step in immediately as a #1 receiver for a Lions team that was led in receiving by a 30-year-old Marvin Jones in 2020.

4. New York Giants – QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)

The Giants are in a similar situation to the Commanders, as they passed on a quarterback in this draft because they took one the previous year, but would not do so in hindsight because that quarterback ended up being a bust. Daniel Jones wasn’t quite as big of a bust as Haskins, who lasted just two seasons in Washington, but if anything his selection was worse because he was just good enough for the Giants to double down on him with a big contract, rather than cutting their losses and starting over at the position, leading to them still needing a quarterback to this day. 

In hindsight, they would have to pull the trigger on Hurts if he remained on the board, even if there was some risk, bringing Hurts into a way worse situation than the one he went to in Philadelphia. Since breaking out in 2022, Hurts has completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions, while rushing for 1,995 yards and another 42 touchdowns on 472 carries (4.23 YPA). He’s had a lot of help from his supporting cast, but there is no denying his 37-10 record with six post-season victories and a Super Bowl MVP over those three seasons.

5. Miami Dolphins – QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)

The Dolphins stick with their original pick here. The majority of teams would probably take Jordan Love over Tua Tagovailoa in this scenario, but for the purposes of this re-draft, I tend to stick with the original pick if it’s close. Tagovailoa has not shown himself to be an elite quarterback, nor has he proven he can consistently stay healthy, but that didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving him a 4-year, 212.4 million dollar extension last off-season, which makes him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

After struggling for most of his first two seasons in the league, Tagovailoa has definitely shown flashes of being an elite quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 8.12 YPA, 73 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions over the past three seasons, while going 25-16, but his durability, consistently, and inability to win and perform well in big games have been a significant problem. The Dolphins giving him that massive contract has more to do with them still believing in his long-term potential than anything he has done yet.

6. Los Angeles Chargers – QB Jordan Love (Utah State)

The Chargers miss out on Justin Herbert in this re-draft, but they’re still picking high enough to get Jordan Love, who is the last of the five quarterbacks to be taken in this scenario. Love definitely benefited from spending three years on the bench behind Aaron Rodgers and would not have been ready to start right away the way Justin Herbert did, but he has arguably developed into a better quarterback in the long run. Over his past two seasons as a starter, he has completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 57 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, while going 18-14 in the regular season and taking the Packers to back-to-back playoff appearances, including a post-season win over the Cowboys in 2023.

7. Carolina Panthers – WR Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma)

Wide receiver wasn’t a pressing need for the Panthers in 2020, as both DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson topped 1000 yards that season, but Anderson fell to 519 yards in 2021 and 206 yards in 2022, while Moore was traded after the 2022 season, so Ceedee Lamb, probably the best available player remaining, still makes sense here. Lamb isn’t quite as good as Jefferson, but he’s topped 1,100 yards receiving in four straight seasons, while averaging 104/1330/8 per 17 games in his career, including a league leading 1,749 receiving yards in 2023.

8. Arizona Cardinals – OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)

The Cardinals had a solid left tackle in DJ Humphries at the time of this draft, but Wirfs would have been a massive upgrade at right tackle, while giving them insurance for the injury plagued Humphries, and ultimately moving over to the left side after Humphries was let go following the 2023 season, after missing 11 games in the previous two seasons. A right tackle for the first three seasons of his career, Wirfs seamlessly made the transition to left tackle with Tampa Bay in 2023, while finishing with PFF grades in the 80s in all five seasons in the league, across 79 total starts, since being selected 13th overall by the Buccaneers. He’s one of the best players in the league at his position and is likely the best available player remaining on the board.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah)

The Jaguars took a cornerback here originally in CJ Henderson, who wound up being a bust, getting traded to the Panthers for a third round pick midway through his second season in the league and not developing there either. Jaylon Johnson, on the other hand, has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league. It took him a few years to develop, as he finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first three seasons in the league, but that jumped to 90.1 in 2023 and remained high at 76.2 in 2024. Originally a second round pick by the Bears, Johnson was extended on a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal after being franchise tagged at the conclusion of his rookie deal last off-season and, still only going into his age 26 season, he still has a very bright future. Even with the relatively slow start to his career, he’s arguably the best available player at this point in this re-draft.

10. Cleveland Browns – OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia)

The Browns had the right idea drafting a left tackle in Jedrick Wills here, but he never developed into a consistent starter, so the Browns take another offensive tackle in this re-draft. Thomas slips a little bit from where he was originally selected, 4th overall by the Giants, but he has still been one of the better left tackles in the league when healthy, finishing with PFF grades of 78.9, 89.1, 76.1, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively. Injuries have become his biggest issue, as he has missed 18 games over the past two seasons, after missing just 5 total games in his first three seasons in the league combined, but, still only going into his age 26 season, it would not at all be a surprise if he puts his injuries behind him and continues being a high level left tackle.

11. New York Jets – S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)

The Jets still had Jamal Adams as of the 2020 draft, but he was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for two first round picks later in the off-season and went on to decline mightily in Seattle. The Jets prepared for the loss of Adams by using a third round pick in this draft on Ashtyn Davis, but knowing that Adams would be gone later in the off-season and would struggle long-term even if he was kept, the Jets could shoot higher at the position in a re-draft. McKinney was a bit inconsistent early in his career and missed significant time with injury in both 2020 (10 games missed) and 2022 (8 games missed), but he has developed into one of the best safeties in the league, finishing with PFFs grades of 87.5 and 84.8 over the past two seasons, while making all 34 starts. Still only going into his age 26 season, he should remain one of the best safeties in the league for several more years.

12. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)

The Raiders’ original pick here, Henry Riggs, wound up getting cut for off-the-field reasons midway through his second season in the league, so the Raiders take a different wide receiver in this re-draft. Higgins has had some durability issues over the past two seasons, missing five games in each of the past two seasons, but he has averaged a 80/1116/8 slash line per 17 games in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.95 and a yards per target average of 8.97. He wouldn’t have the same quarterback situation with the Raiders as he had in Cincinnati, but he would still give their passing game a big boost. A free agent this off-season after being franchise tagged last off-season, Higgins is expected to command around 30 million annually, still only going into his age 26 season.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Antoine Winfield (Minnesota)

The Buccaneers miss out on Tristan Wirfs, their original pick here, but their second round pick Antoine Winfield has developed into one of the better safeties in the league when healthy, so the Buccaneers use this pick to ensure they can keep him. Winfield disappointed in an injury plagued 2024 season, after signing a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar extension last year, but he previously had PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively and, only going into his age 27 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2025 and beyond.

14. San Francisco 49ers – WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State)

Brandon Aiyuk was originally taken with the 49ers’ other first round pick, 25th overall, but they would need to take him earlier this time around. The 49ers wouldn’t mind, as their original pick here, Javon Kinlaw, was a bust who was let go last off-season as a free agent after his 5th year option was declined. Aiyuk’s long-term outlook took a hit this season when he suffered a torn ACL early in the 2024 season, but he has averaged a 72/1061/6 slash line per 17 games, 2.04 yards per route run, and 9.65 yards per target in his career, including a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run and 12.78 yards per target in 2023, which led to the 49ers giving him a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal last off-season after franchise tagging him. Only going into his age 27 season, he still has a bright future if he can bounce back from his injury.

15. Denver Broncos – CB AJ Terrell (Clemson)

Cornerback was a big problem for the Broncos heading into the 2020 Draft. They used a third round pick on Michael Ojemudia and he immediately played 852 snaps in 16 games as a rookie (11 starts), but he finished with a 48.7 PFF grade as a rookie and only played 87 snaps the rest of his career after that. AJ Terrell would be a much better option. He has made 78 starts in five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 60.8, 82.6, 63.9, 74.6, and 69.4 respectively in those five seasons. He originally went 16th to the Falcons, who locked him up with a 4-year, 81 million dollar extension after his 4th season in the league. In this scenario, the Broncos steal him away one pick earlier.

16. Atlanta Falcons – DE Alex Highsmith (Charlotte)

The Falcons missed out on AJ Terrell, who they would have loved to have kept, but they had a desperate need for edge rush help as well. In 2020, the Falcons had the 10th fewest sacks in the league with 29, with no one surpassing 4.5 sacks and no edge rusher surpassing 3 sacks. Alex Highsmith is at his best against the run, but he has also developed into a high level pass rusher opposite TJ Watt in Pittsburgh, with 35.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 77 career games, including 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons, while receiving overall PFF grades of 78.0, 90.3, and 89.5 over those three seasons.

17. Dallas Cowboys – CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)

The Cowboys missed out on Ceedee Lamb, their original pick here, but they also made a good pick in the second round, when they took Trevon Diggs. Diggs has his issues in coverage, allowing 8.81 yards per target in his career, and he’s missed 21 games with injury over the past two seasons, but, despite the missed time, he still has 20 interceptions since entering the league, second most over that time period, including a league leading 11 in 2021. The Cowboys kept him with a 5-year, 97 million dollar extension after his third season in the league and, while his recent injuries may make them question that decision, I still think they would take him here in a re-draft.

18. Miami Dolphins – WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)

The Dolphins would eventually add Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to support Tua Tagovailoa, but back in 2020 they were led in receiving by Devante Parker (63/793/4). Jerry Jeudy didn’t have his first 1000 yard season until his fifth season in the league in 2024, but he averaged a solid 1.83 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league, despite poor quarterback play, before breaking out with a 90/1229/4 slash line (6th in the NFL in receiving yards) in 2024. He could have been more productive sooner with the Dolphins.

19. Las Vegas Raiders – DT Nnamdi Madubuike (Texas A&M)

The Raiders had a big need for defensive tackle help going into this 2020 draft and this has remained a need for years. Nnamdi Madubuike took a couple years to develop and has never been a great run defender, but he has 25 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 51 games as an interior pass rusher over the past three seasons with the Ravens, making him one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. After a 13-sack 2023 season, the Ravens franchise tagged Madubuike and extended him on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal last off-season.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

The Jaguars whiffed on this pick originally, taking edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, who had just 5 sacks in 57 games for the Jaguars. Greenard took a few years to develop, playing just 963 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league, in large part due to injury (16 games missed), but he always flashed potential even in limited action and he has broken out over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 78.2 and 80.8 and a total of 24.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 32 games. After his breakout 2023 campaign in Houston, he signed a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal with the Vikings last off-season, which proved to be a great value in his first season with his new team.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

The Eagles were led in rushing by Miles Sanders in 2020. Sanders wasn’t a bad lead back, but Jonathan Taylor would be an obvious upgrade and would have given the Eagles’ offense a Saquon Barkley type option much earlier. Taylor has missed 17 games with injury in five seasons in the league, but he has still rushed for 6,013 yards and 51 touchdowns in his career, which rank second and third respectively among running backs over that time span.

22. Minnesota Vikings – WR Michael Pittman (USC)

Michael Pittman took a year to develop, but he has averaged a 95/1038/4 slash line with 1.77 yards per route run and 7.39 yards per target in his past four seasons, including a pair of 1000+ yard seasons in 2021 and 2023. He’d obviously be a downgrade for the Vikings from Justin Jefferson, their original pick here, but he is the best remaining wide receiver for a team that had an obvious need at the position in 2020.

23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Derrick Brown (Auburn)

Derrick Brown was a tough player to slot. He was originally the 7th overall pick and had a pair of elite seasons in 2022 and 2023, excelling against the run, adding 3 sacks, 22 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as an interior pass rusher, and finishing with PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 respectively. However, he took two years to develop into that player, with PFF grades of 61.0 and 64.4 in his first two seasons in the league, and then he missed almost all of 2024 with injury. At his best, Brown is an elite run defender who can also push the pocket as a pass rusher and he’s only going into his age 27 season, so he has a good chance to be a great value at this point in the draft, but I couldn’t find a good spot for him earlier. The Chargers needed help at the defensive tackle position in 2020 and beyond, so Brown would have been a welcome addition.

24. New Orleans Saints – G Mike Onwenu (Michigan)

The Saints used this pick originally on guard Cesar Ruiz, who never really developed into a player worth this selection. Ironically, his Michigan teammate Mike Onwenu was only a 6th round pick by the Patriots originally, but he made all 16 starts as a rookie and has started 73 games in five seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, 71.5, and 65.2. He would be an upgrade for the Saints at what was a position of need back in 2020.

25. San Francisco 49ers – DE Chase Young (Ohio State)

Chase Young was a tough player to slot. The 2nd overall pick, Young won Defensive Rookie of the Year and looked like a future Defensive Player of the Year, but tore his ACL midway through his second season in the league, missed most of his third season, and overall hasn’t lived up to his potential since getting hurt. However, he hasn’t been bad overall, generally playing the run at a high level, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, and totaling 22 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 60 career games. The 49ers have been searching for a good edge defender opposite Nick Bosa for years, at one point trading for Young, but only keeping him for a half-season, before losing him to the Saints in free agency. Even with his injury issues, he makes sense for the 49ers at this juncture because of his upside.

26. Green Bay Packers – CB L’Jarius Sneed (Louisiana Tech)

Jaire Alexander had a great season for the Packers at cornerback in 2020, but the rest of their cornerback room was underwhelming and Alexander has been increasingly injury prone in recent years. L’Jarius Sneed, meanwhile, developed into a solid starting cornerback with the Chiefs, despite being a 4th round pick, starting 48 games from 2021-2023 while receiving PFF grades of 64.1, 76.1, and 71.1. That led to the cap strapped Chiefs franchise tagging him last off-season and trading him for a third round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal. Sneed missed most of 2024 with injury, but has obvious bounce back potential in his age 28 season in 2025 and would still have been a welcome addition for the Packers in 2020.

27. Seattle Seahawks – MLB Patrick Queen (LSU)

The Seahawks’ original pick here, linebacker Jordyn Brooks, was a bust who never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in four seasons in Seattle, before leaving as a free agent to the Dolphins. Many felt the Seahawks should have taken Patrick Queen instead, rather than letting him go one pick later to the Ravens, and, in hindsight, that would have been a better move. Queen took a couple years to develop, but finished the 2022 season with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,024 snaps and finished the 2023 season with a 73.1 PFF grade on 1,120 snaps, leading to him signing a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal with the Steelers last off-season. Queen regressed in his first season in Pittsburgh, but still would make sense for the Seahawks at 27 in a re-draft.

28. Baltimore Ravens – G Kevin Dotson (Louisiana)

The Ravens miss out on Patrick Queen by one pick in this scenario, but they get a much needed help at guard in Kevin Dotson, as they struggled to replace Marshal Yanda, a stud guard who retired after the 2019 season. Dotson, originally a 4th round pick, began his career as a solid starter with the Steelers, with PFF grades of 66.2, 64.2, and 65.4 with 30 total starts in his first three seasons, before breaking out with PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 across 30 total starts over the past two seasons after being traded to the Rams, who kept him as a free agent on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal last off-season.

29. Tennessee Titans – G Robert Hunt (Louisiana)

The Titans completely whiffed on their original pick here Isaiah Wilson, who they were hoping could replace Jack Conklin, a free agent departure during the 2020 off-season. Instead, Wilson never played a snap for the team for disciplinary reasons, making him an all-time bust. Robert Hunt has played both right tackle and guard in his career and could immediately step in as the replacement for Conklin, before potentially moving inside to guard when Rodger Saffold left after the 2021 season. In five years in the league, Hunt has made 71 starts, while receiving PFF grades in the 60s and 70s in all five seasons in the league, after being selected in the second round by the Dolphins. The only reason the Dolphins didn’t keep him as a free agent last off-season was cap concerns, as he left for Carolina on a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal.

30. Miami Dolphins – S Grant Delpit (LSU)

The Dolphins had needs all over the field going into the 2020 NFL Draft and Grant Delpit could have been a useful player for them. He missed his entire rookie season with injury after being selected by the Browns in the second round of this draft, but he returned to develop into a solid starter, with PFF grades of 63.3, 63.6, 70.0, and 65.2 over the past four seasons respectively, while only missing another seven total games with injury. The Browns kept him as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal.

31. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Zach Baun (Wisconsin)

Zach Baun was another tough player to slot, spending the first four years of his career as a reserve (664 total defensive snaps) in New Orleans, before breaking out as an All-Pro in his fifth season in the league in Philadelphia, finishing the 2024 season with a 90.1 PFF grade on 938 snaps. The Vikings, who needed another linebacker inside next to Eric Kendricks in 2020, take a chance on him and hope he can become at least a solid starter earlier with more opportunity.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Darnell Mooney (Tulane)

The talent in this draft is running out fast, but Darnell Mooney is a solid starting receiver, and Chiefs could have used another receiver in 2020 and 2021 opposite Tyreek Hill, who they eventually traded after the 2021 season and never adequately replaced. Mooney would obviously be a downgrade from Hill, but could be a useful player for a team that has had consistent problems in the receiving corps in recent years. Originally drafted by the Chicago Bears, with whom his production was kept down by inconsistent quarterback play (60/735/3 slash line per 17 games), Mooney signed with the Falcons on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal last off-season and had a 64/992/5 slash line in 16 games on a much better passing offense. It’s not hard to imagine Mooney exceeding that in Kansas City’s offense after Hill was traded.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

stevenlourie 2024 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Eagles, NFL Picks, Super Bowl LIX Pick

Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low