Author: stevenlourie

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

The Buccaneers pulled off the biggest upset of week 1, going into New Orleans and beating the reigning NFC South champs by 8 points as 10 point underdogs. How well 35-year-old backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played in the absence of the suspended Jameis Winston was a big surprise, but it wasn’t a surprise that the Buccaneers were able to play the Saints competitively. Despite a tough schedule and despite Winston being out or limited with injury for half of the season, the Buccaneers were still better than their 5-11 record in 2017, going just 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and finishing 12th in first down rate differential at +1.13%. Before the Winston suspension, I considered the Buccaneers a sleeper in the NFC.

Last week’s win in New Orleans moved this line significantly, with the Eagles going from being 6 point favorites to 3.5 point favorites, which makes the Buccaneers a much less attractive bet. Fitzpatrick is no guarantee to continue playing well, given his age and history of inconsistency, and the Buccaneers are also missing their top-2 cornerbacks with both Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves out with injury.

The Buccaneers also had a negative first down differential last week, despite the win (-2.54%). Their offense (50.00%) played well, but their defense was horrendous (52.54%). Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense should find it much easier to move the ball this week than in their opener against the Falcons, especially given the Buccaneers’ injuries at cornerback. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ offense faces a much tougher test this week against the Eagles’ defense than last week in New Orleans and Fitzpatrick could easily regress. I’m still taking the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s no line value with them at 3.5, so they’re not worth a bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

The Cowboys are one of the more shorthanded teams in the league right now. A promising young defense is missing it’s best interior pass rusher David Irving with a suspension and one of it’s most promising young players safety Xavier Woods with injury, while their offense is not nearly the same without All-Pro center Travis Frederick, who remains out indefinitely with a rare illness. Dak Prescott has not shown the ability to play well when he doesn’t have a strong supporting cast and, with the offensive line being a shell of it’s 2016 self and the receiving corps losing both Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, he does not have a strong supporting cast right now and the defense isn’t good enough to compensate.

The Cowboys lost their opener 16-8 in Carolina last week, against an also banged up Carolina team that should have been beatable for the Cowboys, who typically play well on the road. Now the Cowboys return home, but they haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years. While they’ve done well on the road as a result of a national fanbase, going 36-29 on the road (37-28 ATS) since 2010, they are just 32-34 at home (24-42 ATS) over that same time period.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they don’t have a tough opponent this week, with the Giants coming to town. Casual bettors seem to think the Giants are much improved this year because of the return of Odell Beckham and the addition of Saquon Barkley, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and at quarterback and their defense is not nearly as good as it was when they made the postseason in 2016, especially with Olivier Vernon out for the start of the season. This line is only 3 points, so the Cowboys should be able to cover, but I wouldn’t recommend betting them.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-1)

The Titans had a pretty terrible week 1, not just losing in Miami against the kind of team they should beat, but also having quarterback Marcus Mariota, tight end Delanie Walker, and left tackle Taylor Lewan go down with injuries. Walker is out for the year with a broken ankle, Lewan is out for at least this week with a concussion, and, while Mariota is expected to play, he is at less than 100% with an elbow injury and may rotate with backup Blaine Gabbert, who was predictably horrendous in Mariota’s absence last week.

Not only do I expect Gabbert to struggle if he has to play, but Mariota has never shown the ability to play well while injured in the past. Whoever plays quarterback will also have to deal with the absence of one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league and the absence of arguably the top starting offensive tackle duo in football, as Lewan joins right tackle Jack Conklin on the sidelines, with Conklin still rehabbing from a torn ACL.

All that being said, I am not confident in the Texans as 3 point road favorites in this one. Deshaun Watson did not look like the same quarterback in his return from a torn ACL in the Texans’ week 1 road loss to the Patriots and the Titans have a solid defense, especially with their top-2 draft picks Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry returning after missing week 1 with injury. The Titans have enough pass rush to give this weak Houston offensive line trouble all day and put Deshaun Watson in more tough throwing situations. The Texans should be able to win, but this might not be that easy.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: None

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-1)

I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. On one hand, the line didn’t move from last week to this week, despite the Saints losing at home to the Buccaneers and the Browns tying the Steelers. The Saints remain 9.5 point favorites. On the other hand, that line seems about right. The Saints’ defense struggled mightily in the opener, but their offense played very well and they actually had an overall positive first down rate differential at +2.54%. The Buccaneers got a return touchdown, but the Saints and Buccaneers had an even amount of first downs and offensive touchdowns (26 and 5) and the Saints did it on 3 fewer plays.

The Browns aren’t in a good spot here either, as they just played close to 5 quarters and will have to turn around and play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football at home against the Jets. The Browns are being cautious with their injured players this week as a result, with both wide receiver Josh Gordon, defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, and linebacker Christian Kirksey already ruled out. The Saints aren’t in a good spot either, as the face the Falcons in Atlanta next week, but they should be focused after last week’s loss. This is a no confidence pick and the Browns could easily keep it close or get a garbage time backdoor cover, but the Saints are the pick here for pick ‘em pool purposes.

New Orleans Saints 34 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: None

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0)

Everyone saw the Jets get a big 48-17 win on Monday Night Football last week and I think they’re a little overrated as a result of it. The Jets finished with just the 7th best first down rate differential at +5.94% and didn’t have a touchdown drive of more than 6 plays all game, benefitting from short fields off turnovers (5 takeaways), big plays on offense (2 touchdowns of 40+ yards), and return touchdowns (2 return touchdowns), all of which tend to be fluky and inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Sam Darnold is going to have growing pains as a rookie and the rest of their roster has significant problems, especially at edge rusher and on the offensive line.

The Jets also open the season in a really tough spot, opening on Monday night week 1 and then being scheduled for Thursday night week 3, meaning they have to play 3 games in 11 days. Teams typically struggle before a Thursday night game, as favorites are just 47-66 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2012, but the Jets could be especially flat in this “sandwich” game between a big Monday Night Football win and another game in 4 days.

I wanted to make a bet on the Dolphins against the spread in this game earlier this week, but then it was announced that Josh Sitton needs season ending shoulder injury. The Dolphins’ offensive line looked passable for the first time in years last week thanks to the addition of Sitton this off-season, so that’s a big loss. This line is just 3 points and didn’t move at all for the Sitton news, so I don’t think we’re getting enough line value for a bet against the spread. The money line at +125 is worth a small bet, as this game is close to a toss up, but the Jets could easily win by a field goal because Miami is a mediocre team without Sitton.

Miami Dolphins 24 New York Jets 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)

I typically like to go against significant week-to-week line movement because it usually is the result of public overreaction, but I’ve agreed with most line movements this week. This game is one exception. The 49ers have gone from being favored by 3.5 to being favored by 6 in this home game against the Lions, as a result of the Lions’ embarrassing 48-17 home loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football week 1.

The Lions definitely had a bad week 1, but they didn’t not play as badly as the final score suggests. The Lions only lost the first down rate battle by 5.94% (7th worst in the NFL last week), which is not good, but not as bad as the final score. The Jets actually had fewer first downs overall (20 to 18) and didn’t have a touchdown drive of more than 6 plays all game, benefitting from short fields off turnovers (5 takeaways), big plays on offense (2 touchdowns of 40+ yards), and return touchdowns (2 return touchdowns), all of which tend to be fluky.

The Lions will have defensive issues all season, as they did last year, but their offense should be better this week, after Matt Stafford had one of the worst games of his career last season, suffering numerous injuries and throwing 4 interceptions (backup Matt Cassel provided the 5th interception). The 49ers’ defense is not that good without Reuben Foster, so this is a relatively easy matchup. I thought this line was too high last week at 3.5 and now at 6 I think the Lions are worth a bet. I have these two teams about even in my rankings, so we’re getting about 3 points of line value with the visitors.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-1)

Going into the season, I considered the Steelers pretty overrated. Casual fans look at the Steelers’ offensive skill position talent and their 13-3 record from a year ago, but they went 8-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer last season and could have easily been a 10-win team. They especially struggled down the stretch, winning just 2 games by more than 4 points in the final 8 games of the season and then losing in their first playoff game at home to Jacksonville. That was in large part due to the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier with injury and they did not adequately replace him this off-season. They will also likely feel the absence of Le’Veon Bell at some point, though backup James Conner is coming off an excellent first start.

Even getting a great game from Conner, the Steelers tied the Browns in Cleveland week 1, an underwhelming start to their season. The Steelers also enter this game missing some key players, with right guard David DeCastro, cornerback Joe Haden, and possibly their other cornerback Artie Burns out with injury. Despite that, they are still favored by 5.5 over the Chiefs, who are coming off of a week 1 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers in Pat Mahomes’ first real start. The Chiefs are missing safety Eric Berry, who has yet to return from a torn achilles, but I still have these two teams about even in my rankings. There’s not quite enough line value with the Chiefs at 5.5 for this to be worth betting, but I might reconsider if the line moves up to 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 Kansas City Chiefs 31

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Patriots

New England Patriots (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)

Last week, I said I was not that eager to bet on the Patriots early in the season because of all the new players and because they are without Julian Edelman for the first 4 games of the season. I still took the Patriots because I thought there was value with them as just 6 point home favorites against the Texans. There must not be as much public action early in the year on the Patriots as normal because of all the negatively surrounding their off-season because once again we are getting a good line with the Patriots, who are just 1 point favorites here in Jacksonville.

The Patriots have been pretty close to automatic as underdogs or favorites of fewer than 3 with Tom Brady under center, going 49-21 ATS in Brady’s career. This game is on the road, but the Patriots have been the best road team in the league in the past few years, going 24-7 straight up in regular season road games since 2014, including 14-1 SU (and 11-4 ATS) since 2016. A lot has been made of what the Patriots have lost on offense since the last time these two teams met in the AFC Championship, but their offensive line exceeded expectations in a tough matchup last week against the Texans and their defense is much improved from a year ago.

The Jaguars, who have lost #1 receiver Marqise Lee with injury and now could be without top running back Leonard Fournette after he didn’t practice all week with a hamstring injury, should have a tough time moving the ball in this one, which should allow the Patriots to pull out the victory even if it isn’t pretty. Any time Brady just needs to win a game to cover, he’s close to an autobet. As long as this line is under 3, the Patriots can be bet confidently this week.

New England Patriots 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: New England -1

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

The Chargers lost last week at home to the Chiefs, but the Chiefs have always had their number in recent years and the Chargers didn’t really get much benefit from being at home because the crowd was mostly Chiefs fans. This week the Chargers go on the road to a hostile crowd in Buffalo, but they are used to that and they get a much easier opponent on the field. Coming into the season, the Bills were my worst ranked team and they did nothing to change my mind in their week 1 47-3 loss in Baltimore. That loss looks even worse now that the Ravens, who were proclaimed to be one of the top teams in the AFC by some after that win, followed that game up by losing in Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football.

The Bills will make a change under center, benching Nathan Peterman, who completed just 5 of 18 passes last week, for Josh Allen, who came in when the game was well out of hand in the second half last week and also struggled to complete passes (6 of 15). Allen definitely has more upside than Peterman and, given how badly Peterman has looked in his career, it’s hard to see how Allen could have more downside than Peterman, but there’s a reason they started Peterman week 1, as Allen is still incredibly raw. He’ll be an upgrade by default, but he’s unlikely to be this team’s savior right away.

Even if he exceeds expectations, he really lacks talent around him. The Bills made the playoffs last season, but that was despite finishing 31st in first down rate last season, as they went 8-2 in games decided by less than 10 points and had a +9 turnover margin, two stats that are not consistent year-to-year. The Bills also got worse this off-season, particularly on offense, where they lost 3 starters on the offensive line and capable starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Taylor was the only reason the Bills were passable offensively last season. Allen would be exceeding expectations by playing as well as him and he would have to do it with a much worse offensive line in front of him.

The Bills are also in a tough spot because they have another tough game on deck, a trip to Minnesota where they are 15.5 point underdogs on the early line. Underdogs of 6+ are 43-62 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again and teams are just 33-53 ATS overall over that same time period before being double digit underdogs. It’s tough for an inferior team to keep up with a superior team when they have another tough game on deck. Unfortunately, we did lose line value with the Chargers when this line shifted from -6 to -7.5 following the Bills’ blowout loss last week. Between that, the uncertainty of how well Josh Allen will actually play in his first start, and the absence of Joey Bosa for the Chargers, I’m not that confident in the Chargers this week, but they should be the right pick.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -7.5

Confidence: Low

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

Two years ago, the Raiders, after a decade plus of being terrible, finally broke through and made the post-season with a record of 12-4, but they lost Derek Carr late in the season with a broken leg and were quickly eliminated in the post-season. In 2017, the things that went in Oakland’s favor like record in close games and turnover margin flipped the other direction, as they went from 8-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less to 4-3 and from a +16 turnover margin to a -14 turnover margin.

The Raiders could have been poised for a bounce back season in 2018, but they did not have a good off-season and then decided to trade their best player a week before the season started, sending Khalil Mack to the Bears for a pair of first round picks (among other picks). If the Raiders can hit on those draft picks and get a couple young talented players on rookie deals, it might be better for them in the long-run than paying Mack a top of the market contract, but there’s a lot of uncertainty in there and without Mack the Raiders have one of the least talented defenses in the league.

The offense didn’t look much better in the opener, a 33-13 home loss to the Rams on Monday Night Football. They looked alright in the first half, but that’s because the Rams didn’t have any tape of them to watch. In the second half, they struggled mightily. Since his strong 2016 season, Derek Carr has been incredibly average at best and is coming off arguably the worst game of his career against the Rams. Part of the reason why the Raiders didn’t want to pay Mack at the top of the market is because they already gave a huge contract to Derek Carr, but in hindsight the Raiders might be better off with Mack signed long-term and a different cheaper quarterback under center.

This week, the Raiders go on the road on a short week to Denver, where the Broncos are coming off of solid win over the Seahawks. While the Raiders had the 5th worst first down rate differential week 1 at -8.85%, the Broncos had the 4th best at +9.80%. With improved quarterback play, the Broncos are a potential playoff team in the AFC and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win the AFC West. I liked this line better earlier in the week when it was 5.5, but the Broncos are still worth a bet as long as this line is under a touchdown, because the Broncos have a good chance to win by double digits.

Denver Broncos 24 Oakland Raiders 12

Pick against the spread: Denver -6.5

Confidence: Medium