Quarterback

The Bears have had a very interesting team building process over the past several seasons. A common strategy of teams is to draft a quarterback and then surround that quarterback with a lot of veteran talent while he is young and cheap. That strategy usually comes at the expense of future cap space and eventually the quarterback will need to get paid, but the hope is that by the time the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback that the quarterback will be good enough to keep the team competitive even with less around him and, if the quarterback isn’t good enough for that, then the team can rebuild from scratch and start the process over with a new quarterback once their financial situation is improved, likely a quarterback they select with a high draft pick after a down year with a reduced supporting cast.

In 2017, the Bears used the 2nd overall pick on quarterback Mitch Trubisky and got to work on loading up the rest of the roster, especially on defense, led by Khalil Mack, giving up pair of first round picks to acquire him during the 2018 off-season and then promptly making him the highest paid defensive player in the league. The strategy resulted in 12-4 finish in 2018, but the Bears lost in the first round of the playoffs and never found that same success again, finishing 8-8 in each of the next two seasons, as they slowly started to lose key players from their 2018 team and Trubisky did not progress as a quarterback to compensate.

The Bears let Trubisky go as a free agent following his 4th season in the league in 2020, declining his expensive 5th year option, and it seemed like a good time to start to rebuild, with an eye on improving their long-term cap situation and then taking another shot on a young quarterback. Instead, the Bears immediately took another shot on a young quarterback, trading away a future first round pick to move up from 20 to 11 in the 2021 NFL Draft and select Justin Fields. Fields showed promise as a rookie, but the Bears’ supporting cast was still aging and expensive and need in of a rebuild, leading to a 6-11 season. 

The Bears then started that rebuild in a big way the following off-season, shedding expensive, aging veterans and going with cheaper, younger supporting cast around Fields. Fields continued to show some promise in his second season in the league, but had one of the worst supporting casts in the league, leading to the Bears finishing with the worst record in the league at 3-14. That terrible season earned the Bears the #1 pick in the draft, which put the Bears at a crossroads. They could either use the #1 pick on another quarterback and give up on a young quarterback who hadn’t really gotten a fair shot in two years in the league, or they could trade away the pick and try to build around Fields for the future. 

The Bears opted for the second choice, trading the pick to Carolina for a pair of first round picks and a pair of second round picks, as well as wide receiver DJ Moore, giving Fields a #1 wide receiver that he desperately lacked. The Bears then used their new found cap space to sign free agents like linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards and guard Nate Davis, then used the 10th overall pick that they got from Carolina to get Fields some more offensive line help in Darnell Wright, and then in a mid-season trade they made use of their excess second round picks and favorable cap situation to acquire talented edge defender Montez Sweat from the Commanders, a pending free agent who the Bears kept on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal.

The result was a much improved Bears team, especially down the stretch once Sweat was added to the defense, as the Bears finished 7-10, including a 5-3 record in their final 8 games. DVOA was even more favorable to them, as they finished the season 11th in weighted DVOA, which more heavily weighted their second half of the season improvement (22nd in season-long DVOA). However, Fields was still a mixed bag, promising, but not necessarily the long-term solution. Fields completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.92 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 5.30 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 124 carries, resulting in total stats through three seasons in the league of 60.3% completion, 6.97 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions, with 6.24 YPC and 14 rushing touchdowns on 356 carries.

On top of that, the Panthers struggled mightily in their first season with #1 overall pick Bryce Young, in large part due to the absence of DJ Moore, leading to the first round pick the Bears got from Carolina being #1 overall in 2024. The Bears traded down from #1 overall and kept Fields as their quarterback once, but with Fields still not improving drastically despite a better supporting cast and being another year older and another year closer to the end of his cheap rookie deal, as well a stronger quarterback class led by USC’s Caleb Williams, the Bears did not make the same decision this year, trading away Fields and selecting Williams #1 overall.

With Fields only having one cost controlled year left on his contract, the market for Fields was not strong this off-season, leading to the Bears settling for a conditional late round pick in 2025 from the Steelers in exchange for him. Given Bryce Young’s struggles in his first season in Carolina and the fact that the first round pick they acquired from the Panthers ended up being #1 overall, it’s easy to look at their decision to keep Fields another year and trade down as a success, but there’s an alternate reality where the Bears stayed put at #1 in 2023, traded away Fields for a higher return a year earlier, and used that #1 pick on CJ Stroud, who broke out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league immediately as a rookie, after falling to the Texans at #2.

Hindsight is 20/20 and obviously the Bears’ course of action was better than if they had selected Bryce Young #1, but Stroud was a legitimate candidate for the #1 pick and easily could have been the Bears’ choice had they stayed put. If Caleb Williams pans out, no one will remember the Bears could have had Stroud, but if Williams proves to be a bust or disappoints, the Bears’ decision to trade down from #1 pick in 2023 will not look like the slam dunk move it looks like now.

Of course, Williams is one of the best quarterback prospects of the decade and seems a lot more likely to be the answer for the Bears at quarterback than a disappointment. He also, unlike Fields, has more than enough talent around him to succeed, or at least to be properly evaluated from the start. In addition to the players the Bears added last year to improve this roster, the Bears used their accumulated draft picks and financial flexibility to improve their roster further this off-season. With an elite quarterback prospect under center, it’s not hard to see how the Bears could take a big step forward in 2024 and, in the weaker NFC, that could make them one of the top teams in the conference.

Williams doesn’t have a significant injury history, but if he does happen to miss time, he will be replaced by another young quarterback Tyson Bagent. Bagent went undrafted in 2023, but impressed through the off-season to earn the #2 quarterback job behind Fields as a rookie and then saw 4 starts when Fields missed time. He had some positive moments, but ultimately looked like an undrafted rookie, completing 65.7% of his passes for an average of 6.01 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. It’s possible he could be better in year two, but he is an underwhelming backup option and would almost definitely be a big drop off from Williams, so the Bears’ hopes of being a playoff team in 2024 depend heavily on Williams staying healthy.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The biggest area the Bears improved this off-season was their receiving corps. DJ Moore was a legitimate #1 wide receiver in his first season in Chicago, finishing with a 96/1364/8 slash line, a 2.31 yards per route run average that ranked 14th in the league among wide receivers, and a 89.3 PFF grade that ranked 9th in the league among wide receivers, but the rest of this wide receiver group was very underwhelming, as Darnell Mooney finished 2nd on the team among wide receivers with a 31/414/1 slash line and a 0.89 yards per route run average, while receiving a 55.2 PFF grade that ranked 92nd out of 102 eligible wide receivers.

Mooney was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and the Bears used some of their cap space to acquire Keenan Allen from the Chargers and then used their own first round pick, 9th overall, on Washington’s Rome Odunze to give them a talented trio of cap catchers. Allen is going into his age 32 season and is owed 23.1 million in the final year of his contract, meaning he could just be an one-year expensive rental and could also disappoint if he declines due to his age, but he only cost the Bears a 4th round pick in terms of draft compensation, they had the financial flexibility to acquire him, and he hasn’t really shown signs of decline yet, finishing the 2023 season with a 108/1243/7 slash in only 13 games, the 5th season of over 1000 yards receiving in the past seven seasons for a player with a career 2.10 yards per route run average (2.36 in 2023). 

It’s possible Allen’s abilities suddenly fall off a cliff given his age and the position he plays. Not only is age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, but a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. However, assuming Allen doesn’t completely drop off, he should be a welcome addition for this team, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past. Odunze, meanwhile, is only a rookie, but he profiles as a future #1 receiver and won’t need to be any higher than the third receiver as a rookie, barring injuries or a major decline from Allen, so he is more than qualified for his role. 

Moore should remain the #1 option, even with Allen and Odunze being added. Still only going into his age 27 season, Moore has surpassed 1100 yards receiving in 4 of the past 5 seasons, despite shaky quarterback play with the Panthers and last year with the Bears. Over that 5-year stretch, which dates back to the 2018 first round pick’s second second in the league, Moore has averaged 2.04 yards per route run and a 84/1198/6 slash line per 17 games, while missing just two games with injury over that stretch. 

Moore is also coming off of a career best year in turns of receiving yardage and PFF grade and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he’s clearly in the prime of his career and should remain one of the better wide receivers in the league. He’ll probably see his target share go down with Allen and Odunze being added, but the 136 targets he had last season were only 16th in the NFL and, even with a smaller target share, he could see a similar number of overall targets on what should be a more pass heavy offense than a year ago (27th in the NFL in pass attempts last season with 513). He also should benefit from having more talented receivers around him taking some of the coverage away from him, as well as from having a better quarterback throwing him the ball.

The Bears also bring back tight end Cole Kmet, who was the de facto #2 receiver on this team last season, finishing with a 73/719/6 slash line, 90 targets, and 1.69 yards per route run, all second on the team behind Moore. It was a career best year for Kmet, who ranked 8th among tight ends with a 73.7 PFF grade in 2023, after a 1.25 combined yards per route run average and PFF grades of 63.4 and 67.6 in 2021 and 2022, but the 2020 2nd round pick is also highly talented and only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to play at that level or even a higher level, even if his overall receiving numbers go down slightly with more mouths to feed at the wide receiver position. He’s more than qualified to be the 3rd or 4th option in a suddenly loaded receiving corps.

The Bears also added veteran tight end Gerald Everett this off-season on a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. Everett is going into his age 30 season and was an underwhelming starting option with the Seahawks and Chargers over the past three seasons, but he wasn’t a bad starter either, with a 1.29 yards per route run average and 35 starts in 46 games, and he’s more than qualified to be a solid backup and a good insurance policy in case of a Kmet injury. The Bears also brought back blocking specialist Marcedes Lewis. Lewis is going into his age 40 season and has only caught 10 passes over the past two seasons, but he’s still an above average blocker, with a PFF run blocking grade of 73.7 in 2023. He won’t have a big role behind Kmet and Everett, but could still be useful as a role player and veteran leder.

The one concern with their group is depth at wide receiver behind their top-3 options, as they lack a proven backup, but they at least have some recent draft picks with some upside, as Tyler Scott was a 4th round pick in 2023 and Velus Jones was a 3rd round pick in 2022. Both have shown nothing as professionals to this point in their young careers, with career averages of 0.65 yards per route run and 1.02 yards per route run respectively, but both are young and talented enough that I wouldn’t rule out one taking a step forward this season and being an adequate backup option. Overall, this is one of the most complete receiving corps in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Bears also signed running back D’Andre Swift this off-season and he also figures to have a significant role in the passing game. His 39/214/1 slash line and 0.77 yards per route run from 2023 look underwhelming, but he played in an Eagles offense that doesn’t target running backs much in the passing game. In the first three seasons of his career in Detroit, the 2020 2nd round pick averaged a 52/399/2 slash line per 17 games with a 1.53 yards per route run average. 

Swift also averaged 4.62 YPC as a runner in those three seasons in Detroit, but injuries limited him to just 364 carries in 40 games. In his first season in Philadelphia, Swift played all but one game and rushed for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.58 YPC) in the first season of his career as a healthy lead back. Swift’s history of injuries is still a concern and he benefited significantly last season from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, which he won’t be bringing to Chicago with him, but he’s proven to be a solid every down back when healthy and he’s still only going into his age 25 season.

Still, it’s fair to question the need for the Bears to bring Swift in on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal (7th highest average annual value among running backs), even if they had the financial flexibility to do it. Khalil Herbert was their lead running back last season and had a solid 4.63 YPC average on 132 carries. The 2021 6th round pick has never truly carried the load and he has struggled in the passing game with a career 0.73 yards per route run average, but he also has an impressive 4.88 YPC average on 364 carries as a runner in three seasons in the league and at the very least is a solid tandem back. Herbert’s career 3.20 yards per carry after contact significantly exceeds Swift’s 2.53. Swift will work in tandem with Herbert and handle most of the passing game work, but he comes at a steep price for that role. The Bears could have just kept Dont’a Foreman as a tandem back on a much cheaper deal (signed with Cleveland for 1-year, 1.3 million), even though his 2.75 yards per carry after contact in 2023 exceeded Swift’s 2.42.

The Bears also have 2023 4th round pick Roschon Johnson who showed promise as a rookie and who likely would have been that tandem back with Herbert had Swift not been added. Johnson averaged 4.35 YPC on 81 carries as a rookie and also handled the majority of the passing game work, with a 29/209/0 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average. Swift upgrades what is now a suddenly deep backfield, but I’m not sure he improves this team enough to justify his salary, especially given his injury history.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Bears didn’t make any big additions on the offensive line this season, but this was already a solid group, one that had been remade significantly over the past few off-seasons. Left tackle Braxton Jones was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, making 28 starts on the blindside in two seasons in the league and giving the Bears above average play, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 respectively. Still only in his age 25 season, it’s possible the best is yet to come from him and, even if it’s not, he should remain a solid blindside protector in 2024 and beyond.

On the other side, right tackle Darnell Wright was taken 10th overall in 2023 with one of the draft picks the Bears got in their trade with Carolina. He was unspectacular as a rookie with a 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts, but is a very talented player who could easily take a big step forward in year two. Even if he doesn’t improve drastically, I would still expect him to be at least somewhat improved from a year ago, given the amount of promise he came into the league with.

Left guard Teven Jenkins is also a young player, going in the 2nd round in 2021. Jenkins missed most of his rookie season with injury and struggled mightily in the limited action he did see (160 snaps), but he improved drastically (80.7 PFF grade) when he moved from tackle to guard in his second season in the league in 2022, in part due to the position change, in part due to being healthier and more experienced. Jenkins was still limited to 576 snaps by injury in 2022, but he saw more playing time in 2023, with a 72.6 PFF grade on 731 snaps. He’s still yet to make it through a full season without getting hurt, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and has proven his talent. He’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this season, but he also figures to remain an above average starting guard when on the field.

Right guard Nate Davis came to the Bears as a free agent last off-season, signing a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. The ex-Titan had a rough first season in Chicago, missing 6 games and being limited in several others due to injury and personal off-the-field concerns, leading to a disappointing 52.9 PFF grade, but he’s only in his age 28 season and could easily bounce back in 2024. In his final three seasons in Tennessee, he made 42 of a possible 50 starts and had PFF grades of 69.7, 68.8, and 70.6, so if everything is right with him again, he should be at least a solid starting guard, which will be a boost for this offensive line. 

The only addition in this offensive line this off-season was at center, where the Bears surrendered a 5th round pick to the Bills to take on the final 2 years and 8 million of Ryan Bates’ contract. Bates is an underwhelming player, but he comes relatively cheap and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade at center, where Cody Whitehair (45.0 PFF grade) and Lucas Patrick (50.5 PFF grade) were both liabilities last season, making center their biggest position of weakness in 2023. Bates was a backup with the Bills last season, playing just 35 snaps, which is why he was available so inexpensively this off-season, but he made 19 starts in 2021 and 2022 combined (3 at center, 16 at guard) and received adequate grades of 64.3 and 61.8 respectively from PFF, so he should be a capable and versatile starting option, still only in his age 27 season.

The Bears also used a 3rd round pick on Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade as the swing tackle over Larry Borom, who had a 48.0 PFF grade in six starts (411 snaps) in 2023. Borom himself could also be better than a year ago, as the 2021 5th round pick was adequate in 17 starts in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.7 respectively, before last year’s down season. Even if Borom keeps the swing tackle job, Amegadjie could still provide value in year one because he has experience at guard as well as tackle.

On the interior, Whitehair and Patrick are gone and Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton were added as veteran reserve options. Pryor played just 42 snaps with the 49ers in 2023, but he saw snap counts of 776, 438, and 576 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively and had his ups and downs, with grades of 55.4, 76.5, and 44.9 respectively from PFF. Of his 24 career starts, 13 have come at tackle, with the other 11 at guard, so he gives the Bears some veteran versatiity at the very least. Shelton, meanwhile, made 2 starts, 13 starts, and 17 starts for the Rams over the past 3 seasons with mediocre, but not horrible results, with PFF grades of 57.7, 58.0, and 64.5 respectively. Shelton is also a versatile reserve option, with 28 starts at center and 4 starts at guard over the past three seasons. 

The Bears hope none of their reserves have to see significant action, but their depth isn’t bad and their starting five has a good chance to be a solid unit. They weren’t terrible a year ago (23rd in both team run blocking and team pass blocking grade on PFF), despite injuries (6 games missed by Davis, 5 games missed by Jenkins, 6 games missed by Jones), and they probably upgraded the center position this off-season, even if only by default, with the addition of Ryan Bates.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bears didn’t add nearly as much on defense this off-season as they did on offense, but their defense was the better side of the ball last season (22nd in offensive DVOA, 17th in defensive DVOA), especially after acquiring Montez Sweat from the Commanders mid-season. Sweat was only with the team for half a year, but lead the team with 6 sacks in 9 games, while also adding 8 hits and a 13.3% pressure rate. Including his time with the Commanders, Sweat finished last season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, a 12.4% pressure rate and a 74.8 overall grade from PFF. 

That’s nothing new for Sweat, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons, while totaling 34.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 60 games over that stretch. Equally reliable as a run stopper as he is as a pass rusher, Sweat was a great addition to this defense, even at a steep price (a 2nd round pick via trade and a 4-year, 98 million dollar extension that makes him the 6th highest paid edge defender in the league). Still only in his age 28 season, Sweat is unlikely to drop off in 2024 and having him for a full season will be a significant benefit to this defense.

The rest of this position group is a concern, however. With Sweat only being added mid-season, DeMarcus Walker led this group with 714 snaps played and was pretty underwhelming, totaling 3.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate, while struggling against the run and finishing with a 59.1 overall grade from PFF. Without any other major additions at the position this off-season, Walker figures to have a significant role opposite Sweat again in 2024 and he figures to continue struggling. Walker had never played more than 458 snaps in a season prior to last season and has just 23 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 83 games in seven seasons in the league. Now in his age 30 season, it’s highly unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to remain mediocre at best.

Rasheem Green (385 snaps) and Yannick Ngakoue (592 snaps) also struggled in significant roles last season and, while neither was retained this off-season, the Bears other edge defender options for 2024 aren’t any better. Dominique Robinson is their top returning reserve at the position and he was arguably the worst of the bunch, with a 35.3 PFF grade on 242 snaps and a pitiful 3.2% pressure rate. A 7th round pick in 2022, Robinson also struggled with a 5.3% pressure rate and a 45.9 PFF grade on 549 snaps as a rookie and, even if he happens to be better in year three, he still figures to be a liability in a significant reserve role.

Austin Booker and Jacob Martin were added to the mix this off-season, but not much should be expected out of either, with Booker being a 5th round rookie and Martin being a career journeyman reserve who was signed to a contract of just 1-year, 1.3 million. Martin played just 192 snaps for the Colts last season, his 3rd team in the past two seasons, and has only played more than 400 snaps in a season once in six seasons in the league, while consistently receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF. Montez Sweat was a much needed addition to this group mid-season last year and having him for the full season in 2024 will be a boost to this defense, but the rest of this group is still a big concern.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender spot for the Bears in 2024. Justin Jones (740 snaps), Andrew Billings (506 snaps), Gervin Dexter (433 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (264 snaps) all saw significant action at the position last season. None of them missed any time with injury last season, which is unlikely to happen again, and Jones, who led the group in snaps played last season, left this off-season and wasn’t replaced, but Jones struggled mightily with a 49.3 PFF grade, so his absence might be addition by subtraction and both Dexter and Pickens were rookies last season who could step up in bigger roles in year two in 2024. They were mediocre with PFF grades of 50.9 and 54.9 respectively as rookies, but they were also drafted in the second and third round respectively and have the upside to take a step forward in their second year in the NFL.

Billings was the best of the bunch in 2023, finishing with a 66.3 PFF grade. He’s normally been a solid starter when healthy in his career, posting grades of 71.1, 69.3, and 76.4 on snap counts of 632, 657, and 478 respectively, with injuries limiting him to 72 snaps total in 2020 and 2021. His injury history is somewhat concerning, but aside from that 2-year stretch, he’s only missed three games in his last four healthy seasons, so he’s not necessarily an injury prone player. Still only in his age 29 season, Billings should remain a solid starter in 2024, as long as he can avoid any unexpected major injuries. This group is still thin behind Billings and the two second year players, but they could still add decent depth at this point in the off-season and it’s not a bad position group, especially if one or both of the young players can take a step forward in year two.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Bears didn’t make any additions at the linebacker position this off-season, but they overhauled the group in a big way last off-season, giving big contracts to Tremaine Edmunds (4 years, 72 million) and TJ Edwards (3 years, 19.5 million) as part of their off-season spending spree. Edwards was the cheaper of the two, but was by far the better of the two in his first season in Chicago, ranking 14th among off ball linebackers with a 79.6 PFF grade on 1,042 snaps, while Edmunds disappointed with a 56.6 PFF grade on 876 snaps.

Despite the contracts they got, neither of those results was a surprise. Edwards was a steal in free agency, having received grades of 76.3 and 84.8 from PFF on snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before joining the Bears. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a couple years to become a starter, but he always flashed potential dating back to his rookie season and has developed into one of the most consistently good off ball linebackers in the league.

Edmunds, meanwhile, had a dominant final season in Buffalo with a 79.0 PFF grade on 760 snaps, leading to the Bears giving the 2018 first round pick that massive contract, but he had been inconsistent throughout his time with the Bills, receiving grades lower than 60 from PFF in three of five seasons. He’s always produced impressive tackle totals, but aside from his contract season in Buffalo, he has also always consistently missed a lot of tackles and has consistently struggled in coverage. 

Still only going into his age 26 season, Edmunds does have some bounce back potential, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever be consistently good enough to justify a contract that makes him the 3rd highest paid off ball linebacker in the league in terms of average annual salary. Fortunately, the Bears have Edwards, who should remain one of the better players in the league at the position and a steal at his current salary. Together, Edwards and Edmunds are a linebacker duo that is better than most around the league.

The Bears also have good depth at the linebacker position. Jack Sanborn went undrafted in 2022, but has shown potential in limited action in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 67.3 on snap counts of 330 and 412 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He’s best as a part-time player, primarily playing run defense in base packages, but he could also fill in for a few games as an every down linebacker as well. On top of that, 2023 5th round pick Noah Sewell flashed potential as a rookie, albeit on only 27 snaps. He’s inexperienced, but you could do a lot worse than him as a 4th linebacker who will probably only see significant action if there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is an above average position group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Bears have some talented players on this defense like Montez Sweat and TJ Edwards, but their best defensive player in 2023 was cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who led all cornerbacks in the league with a 90.8 PFF grade, while allowing a ridiculous 33.3 QB rating on passes into his coverage and just 195 yards receiving allowed on 530 coverage snaps. Johnson had never had a season nearly that good before, as the 2020 2nd round pick received grades of 54.9, 64.2, and 62.9 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and the Bears rightfully locked him up long-term after his dominant 2023 campaign, giving him a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal that makes him the 7th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He might not be quite as good again in 2024, in part because it’s really hard to be that good two years in a row and in part because he’s never been close to that good before, but I wouldn’t expect him to regress to his pre-2023 form and he’s obviously one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

The rest of the Bears’ cornerbacks aren’t nearly as good, but at least they have some promising young players with upside. Kyler Gordon was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and, after a disappointing rookie season in which he received a 49.8 PFF grade across 863 snaps, he took a big step forward in year two, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 646 snaps. Gordon might not necessarily be better in year three than he was in year two, but it’s unlikely he’ll regress back to his rookie year form and he could easily take another step forward. Tyrique Stevenson is also a recent second round pick, selected in 2023, and, unlike Gordon, he didn’t relly struggle as a rookie, with a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps. He should remain at least a capable starting cornerback in 2024 and, like Gordon, also has the upside to take a step forward in 2024. 

Behind their top-3 on the depth chart, the Bears also have Terell Smith, who was only a 5th round pick in 2023, but who wasn’t bad with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie. He could struggle if forced into a bigger role, but, barring injury, he won’t open the season any higher than 4th on the depth chart and he’s a promising prospect and good depth to have. #5 cornerback Jaylon Jones is also young and, while the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 48.4 PFF grade on 466 snaps as a rookie, he was better with a 61.8 PFF grade on 148 snaps in year two. He also could struggle if forced into significant action again, but he would need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for that to happen and you could do a lot worse than him as your 5th cornerback, especially given that he’s young and could continue improving.

The only big addition to this defense this off-season was safety Kevin Byard, who signed on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal. Byard is going into his age 31 season and his best days are almost definitely behind him, but he should still prove to be an upgrade at safety over departed veteran Eddie Jackson, who finished last season with a 58.6 PFF grade in 12 starts. Even at less than his prime form, Byard still had a 74.0 PFF grade last season and the fact that last season was his 2nd worst PFF grade of the past seven seasons is a testament to how consistently good Byard was in his prime, receiving a 90.2 PFF grade as recently as 2021. He is highly unlikely to be that good in 2024, but he’s not totally over the hill yet and, even if he continues declining, there’s a good chance he remains at least an above average starter. He’s also been very durable throughout his career, never once missing a game due to injury. He has a good chance to be a good value on a relatively inexpensive contract.

JaQuan Brisker remains as the other starting safety. Another young player in this secondary, Brisker was selected in the second round in 2022 and has been a solid starter thus far in his career, making 30 total starts in two seasons in the league and receiving grades from PFF of 67.0 and 66.7 respectively. Now in his third season in the league, he should continue at least being solid and he has the upside to take a step forward and have the best year of his career thus far.

The Bears also added veteran Jonathan Owens in free agency to give them a better third safety, after Elijah Hicks struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade on 487 snaps in that role in 2023. A relatively old player compared to much of this secondary in his age 29 season, Owens had mixed results as a starter with the Texans and Packers over the past two seasons, receiving a 48.3 PFF grade on 970 snaps in 2022 and a 61.9 PFF grade on 774 snaps in 2023, but he’s not a bad third safety option. 

Hicks, meanwhile, will be the 4th safety and is not a bad fit for that role. Hicks was better on 168 snaps as a rookie, with a 63.2 PFF grade, and the 2022 7th round pick is still relatively young and could have some untapped upside. Top cornerback Jaylon Johnson might not be quite as good as he was a year ago, but the arrow is pointing up for the rest of this secondary, because of the potential of their young talent, as well as the upgrade that free agent addition Kevin Byard should provide over Eddie Jackson.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

If the Bears played as good all last season as they did down the stretch last season after their defense added Montez Sweat, they could have qualified for the post-season or at least come close in the weak NFC. This off-season, they added even more talent to this roster and almost definitely got a quarterback upgrade with Caleb Williams. With the NFC still being weak, I would expect this team to at least make the post-season, barring significant injuries, and if Williams can have a big rookie year, this team has enough talent around him to be contenders right away.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC North