Author: stevenlourie

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-2)

The Buccaneers are getting a lot of attention right now thanks to a 5-game winning streak that has improved their record to 8-5 and pushed them into a tie for first place in the NFC South with the Atlanta Falcons. As a result of their home victory over the Saints last week, as well as the Cowboys’ close loss in New York to the Giants, this line has shifted from 9.5 in favor of Dallas on the early line to 7 this week. I think that’s an overreaction. Both Tampa Bay’s win and Dallas’ loss were close, as have most of the Buccaneers’ wins on their winning streak. Four of 5 victories have come by single digits. On the season, they still have a negative point differential and they rank just 20th in first down rate differential.

Their defense has led the way over the 5-game winning streak, allowing just 12.8 points per game, but they still rank in the bottom half in first down rate allowed (20th) because their defense was awful to start the season, allowing 37+ points on 3 separate occasions. They’re better now that they’re healthier on the defensive line, I don’t buy that they’re as good as they’ve looked, so I think we’re getting good line value with the Cowboys as 7 point home favorites. Despite a close loss to a good Giants team, they are still arguably the best team in the league and rank 3rd in first down rate differential. This is a no confidence pick though because the Cowboys have no homefield advantage, going 11-27 ATS as home favorites since 2010.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7-1)

Both of these teams have losing records, but both have played significantly better than their record would suggest. In fact, the Saints have a +9 offensive touchdown differential, tied for 4th best in the NFL, and the Cardinals have a +8 offensive touchdown differential, 6th in the NFL. The Cardinals have played well this season, with the exception of a few special teams plays that have unfortunately decided games. They missed a game winning field goal against New England. They allowed a long punt return to set up the winning score against the Rams. They had a blocked punt and a number of missed field goals in the tie against the Seahawks. They allowed a kickoff return touchdown in a 6-point loss to the Vikings. And last week, in a 3-point loss, special teams cost them 7 points on 3 plays with a missed field goal, a missed extra point, and a blocked extra point that was returned for 2 points. They’ve won the first down rate battle in 11 of 13 games and rank 2nd in first down rate differential on the season, but their season is essentially over at 5-7-1 because of a handful of special teams screw ups.

The Saints, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down rate differential, but their season is essentially over as well at 5-8, because of a -4 return touchdown differential and 6 losses by 6 points or fewer, including 4 losses by 3 points or fewer. The Cardinals are the better team and are only favored by 2.5 here at home, so I’m taking them, but I can’t be confident in them, especially with a tough Seattle game on deck. The Saints are also in a good spot in their second of two road games. Teams are 141-108 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 112-74 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 236-254 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.97 points per game, as opposed to 338-473 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.98 points per game. The Cardinals are the pick, but I wouldn’t put money on them this week.

Arizona Cardinals 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (9-4) at New York Giants (9-4)

At first glance, these teams appear very similar. Both teams are 9-4, but both teams have also won a lot of close games. In fact, between the two teams, 16 of their 18 wins have come by 7 points or fewer. Detroit beat New Orleans by 15, while the Giants won by 14 in Cleveland, and aside from that all their other wins have come by a touchdown or less. The big difference between these two teams: Detroit has a +4 turnover margin, while the Giants have done this despite a -5 turnover margin.

Why does that matter? Well, turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis so I tend to value teams that consistently move the chains above teams that consistently win the turnover battle. The Giants rank 8th in first down rate, while the Lions rank 19th. However, we’ve lost all line value with the Giants following their home victory over the Cowboys last week. This line has shifted from 3.5 to 4.5 in the past week. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, this line is pretty high. The Giants are the significantly better team here, but this is a no confidence pick at 4.5.

New York Giants 23 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -4.5

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1)

The Steelers are getting a lot of attention and rightfully so. They are red hot right now in a league that lacks top level teams and they are arguably the 3rd scariest team in the league right now behind New England and Dallas. However, they are getting almost all of the public action right now as 3.5 point road favorites in Cincinnati, which I think is too many points. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less and the Bengals are quietly playing very strong football right now too, even without Giovani Bernard and AJ Green, who remain out with injuries.

In 3 games since losing Bernard and Green, the Bengals have narrowly lost in Baltimore and have gotten big blowout victories at home against Philadelphia and on the road in Cleveland. Since they’re pretty much out of the playoff race, as a result of some close early losses, the Bengals aren’t getting a lot of attention, but they’re a dangerous team right now and are still a talented bunch without Green and Bernard. They rank 12th in first down rate differential, which is just a couple of spots behind Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is obviously healthier right now, but I think we’re getting great value with the Bengals as 3.5 point home underdogs.

The Steelers haven’t been quite the same team on the road this season. Like they are here, in their final road game of the season, the Steelers were favored in their first 7 road games, but lost three of them straight up, in Philadelphia, Miami, and Baltimore. None of those games were even that close; the Ravens’ game was the closest one with a final score of 21-14. Cincinnati is just as good as any of those teams and even if they don’t win this game straight up they still have a good chance to cover the spread because they’re getting 3.5 points. They’re worth a bet at that number, especially since the odds makers stand to lose a lot of money if Pittsburgh covers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 23

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns (0-13) at Buffalo Bills (6-7)

Typically, betting on winless teams is a good idea, as teams that are 0-8 or worse are 34-21 ATS since 1989. On top of that, road underdogs on a 7+ game losing streak are 56-30 since 1989. However, no one seems to have told that to the Browns, who have failed to cover in 7 straight games and are now 0-13. The Browns have lost 6 of those 7 games by 13 or more points and their average margin of defeat over those 7 games has been 13.00 points per game. The Bills are an average team at best (22nd in first down rate differential) and favored by 10 points here, so we’re not getting any line value with them, but it’s still very hard to bet on the Browns this week, so Buffalo is the pick in pick ‘em leagues.

Buffalo Bills 24 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -10

Confidence: None

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Houston Texans (7-6)

The Jaguars are on an 8-game losing streak and are coming off of one of their least impressive performances of the season, losing at home by 9 despite winning the turnover battle, against a Minnesota team that was missing their best defensive player, safety Harrison Smith. However, typically, it’s a good idea to bet on teams on long losing streaks, especially as road underdogs, as they tend to be undervalued. Road underdogs on a 7+ game losing streak are 56-30 ATS since 1989.

I think the Jaguars are definitely undervalued here as 6 point underdogs in Houston. The Texans are 7-6, but they aren’t winning big. Their 7 wins have come by a total of 41 points (an average of 5.86 points per game), while the 6 losses have come by a total of 86 points (an average of 14.33 points per game), giving them a -45 point differential that ranks just 26th in the NFL. The Jaguars, meanwhile, aren’t exactly getting blown out as their last 6 losses have come by a combined 41 points, an average of 6.83 points per game. The Texans are also probably the easiest opponent the Jaguars have faced in recent weeks. They lost by 3 to the Texans at home week 10, but other than that their last game that was easier than this was their win in Chicago week 6.

Even in that week 10 loss, the Jaguars won the first down battle 23-16 and moved the chains at a 4.74% higher rate. The Jaguars have actually won the first down battle on the season as well, as they rank 14th in first down rate differential, while the Texans rank 28th. Despite their 7-6 record, the Texans are -10 in offensive touchdown differential (4th worst in the NFL), while the Jaguars are just -4. The Jaguars’ -98 point differential is worse than Houston’s, but that’s largely because of a -17 turnover margin and turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis (on average a team with a +3 turnover margin in a game will have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week, the same average as teams that had a -3 turnover margin). Outside of those 17 snaps, the Jaguars have been the better team this season. I like the Jaguars a lot as 6 point road underdogs.

Houston Texans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers (1-12) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

Since beating the lowly Rams by 28 on Monday Night Football back in week 1, the 49ers have lost 12 straight games, by an average of 14.17 points per game. This line is very high at 13.5, but not when you consider that the 49ers have been blown out by pretty much every team that has played them and that the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league. Six of San Francisco’s 12 losses came by two touchdowns or more, enough to cover this line, so I don’t see why the Falcons couldn’t give the 49ers their 7th such loss. Atlanta ranks 3rd in the NFL in point differential, behind only New England and Dallas, and 4th in first down rate differential. In a year with so few top tier teams, the Falcons are quietly closer to elite than most realize. I couldn’t bet money on the Falcons at 13.5 without injured Julio Jones, but this should be a big Atlanta win even without him.

Atlanta Falcons 31 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -13.5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Titans

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-3)

One of these teams has 11 more offensive touchdowns on the season than their opponents and the other one has 3 fewer offensive touchdowns on the season than their opponents. By looking at their records, you’d think 10-win Kansas City had the +11 margin, but it’s actually Tennessee, who is just 7-6. How are the Titans 3 wins worse than the Chiefs if they have such an advantage in offensive touchdowns? Well, the Chiefs have a +7 differential in return touchdowns, while the Titans are -7 in that measure. The Chiefs also have a 6-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, while the Titans are just 4-3 in those types of games.

The Chiefs can’t just rely on return touchdowns winning them close games all year though. At some point, they’ll need to consistently move the ball better than their opponents and they rank just 27th in first down rate differential, while the Titans rank 7th. Aside from the 14 plays that make the difference in these teams’ return touchdown margins, the Titans have outplayed the Chiefs by a wide margin this season. Despite that, the Chiefs are 6 point home favorites this week. The Chiefs have just 4 wins by more than 6 points this season, so this should be a close game, but Tennessee has a good shot to win straight up as well because they have quietly been one of the better teams in the league this season. This is my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +200

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

The Dolphins pulled off the home upset victory last week over the Cardinals, despite being without a trio of key defenders, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins and defensive end Mario Williams, all of whom return this week. It was a game they should have lost though, as the Cardinals lost 7 points on special teams, thanks to a missed field goal and two missed extra points, one of which was blocked and returned for 2 points. The Cardinals had the 21-15 edge in first downs and won the first down rate battle by +6.52%.

Teams also tend to struggle off of a home upset victory like that, going 61-80 ATS since 2012, as teams tend to be overrated and overconfident in that spot. However, we’re actually still getting good line value with the Dolphins because they lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill with injury, which dropped this line from 3.5 to 2.5, despite Miami’s upset victory. That might not seem like a big swing, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so it’s a very significant point. Considering backup Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league and the Dolphins are significantly healthier around the quarterback now than they have been for most of the season, I think the line is very fair.

With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Dolphins as the Jets have to turn around and go to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 41-66 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and the Jets could easily overlook the Dolphins with arguably the biggest game of their season on deck. Because Moore hasn’t made a start since 2011, there’s not enough here for me to be confident enough in Miami to put money on them, but they should be the right side. Even a field goal road victory covers this spread.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Packers

Green Bay Packers (7-6) at Chicago Bears (3-10)

The Packers got a huge home win over the Seahawks last week, handing Seattle their biggest loss in the Russell Wilson era, 38-10. Unfortunately for them, teams are just 61-80 ATS off of a home win as underdogs, as teams in that spot tend to be overrated and overconfident. Typically, I love betting against teams coming off of home upset wins and the Packers are no exception. The Packers’ big win last week shifted this line all the way from 3.5 in favor of Green Bay to 7, which I think is an overreaction, especially since the Bears almost won in Detroit. The Packers’ win last week was impressive, but much of that big margin of victory was as a result of a fluky +6 turnover margins. Turnover margins tend to be incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.3 the following week.

The Bears, meanwhile, have had arguably the most injuries in the league, but they haven’t been bad overall this season and they are still fighting despite being down to backups at multiple spots on both sides of the ball. They rank 18th in first down rate and just 2 of their last 7 losses have come by more than 6 points. At home, the Bears are 3-3 with a +11 point differential and just one loss by more than 6 points (back in week 2). This week, the Bears get top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from a 4-game suspension, a much needed re-addition for this offense. With this line jumping to 7 as a result of Green Bay’s big win last week, I like the Bears a good amount this week, as they should be able to keep it close against a team that could be overconfident off of a huge win and that has Minnesota and Detroit in their final 2 games of the regular season after this relatively “easy” game.

Green Bay Packers 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

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