2012 Fantasy Football Preseason

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Ravens

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

8/27/12: I’m moving Flacco up a little bit too with Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has enjoyed a strong preseason overall, completing 71.7% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception. He could have a career high year, but remains just a QB2 with upside because of the Ravens’ still conservative offense.

You always know what you’re getting from the best quarterback in the league. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s had 21, 25, and 20 touchdowns, 12, 10, and 10 interceptions, and 3613, 3622, and 3610 passing yards. He’ll be in that range once again this year which makes him a solid QB2.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (228 pts standard, 272 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

7/1/12: When the Ravens used a 3rd round pick on Bernard Pierce, I thought it would be so that Pierce (27 touchdowns in 11 games last year) could play Willis McGahee’s old role as a short yardage back and vulture touchdowns. However, Pierce is reportedly not impressing in practice and has yet to even leap Anthony Allen on the depth chart. It sounds like whoever Rice’s backup is will be a pure backup this year, so you can feel free to take Rice early in the 1st round in fantasy leagues unless he holds out long into Training Camp. Franchise tagged players can’t sign long term deals after July 16th so there wouldn’t be much point in him doing so however.

Ray Rice went from a good fantasy back to a great one last year when touchdown vulture Willis McGahee signed in Denver. This year, he should make the opposite transition. The Ravens spent a 3rd round pick on Bernard Pierce, who scored 27 touchdowns in 11 games last year at Temple. He’ll vulture touchdowns away just like McGahee did. Rice also might not see the 307 carries he had in 2010 or the 291 carries he had in 2011 because they did spent a 3rd round pick on a backup. Pierce is more talented than Willis McGahee or Ricky Williams.

His 4.7 YPC from 2011 should also decrease with Ben Grubbs leaving town, as well as the potential that Rice holds out into Training Camp. We all saw how that affected Chris Johnson last year. He should still be a good fantasy back, especially in PPR leagues, but he’ll be limited by his touchdown totals. The 5 guys ahead of him on the running back list, as well as some below him on this list, should score more frequently than him.

Projection: 290 carries 1310 rushing yards 13 total touchdowns 70 catches 620 receiving yards (271 pts standard/341 pts PPR)

RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

7/1/12: Pierce is a pure handcuff for Rice, if he can even win the job. Don’t bother.

There’s some value with Pierce because he’ll probably vulture touchdowns away from Ray Rice. Pierce rushed for 27 touchdowns in 11 games for Temple last year and Willis McGahee rushed for 20 touchdowns over 2 seasons as a touchdown vulture behind Ray Rice from 2009-2010. However, unless Ray Rice gets hurt or holds out into the season, Pierce won’t be anything more than a handcuff this season.

Projection: 80 carries 340 rushing yards 2 total touchdowns 10 catches 70 receiving yards (53 pts standard/63 pts PPR)

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

8/27/12: Torrey Smith exploded for 8 catches for 103 yards in the Ravens’ 3rd preseason game in not even 3 full quarters worth of action. He might be even more likely to have a Mike Wallace type breakout year than I originally imagined.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia. Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver.

We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. There’s definitely upside to be had with the speedy Smith in the mid rounds.

Projection: 70 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

WR Anquan Boldin (Baltimore)

If Torrey Smith goes up, that must mean Anquan Boldin goes down. Boldin is entering his age 32 season and has really shown signs of aging in the past 2 years. I mentioned Smith’s last 7 games in his writeup, well in Boldin’s last 5 (he missed two with injury), he caught 14 balls for 236 yards and a score, good for 45 catches for 762 yards and 3 touchdowns over 16 games. Keep in mind, he’s now a year older on the wrong side of 30 and Smith is another year older and healthier. There’s clear downside here with not much upside.

Projection: 50 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard, 144 pts PPR)

TE Ed Dickson (Baltimore)

Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are both solid tight ends who essentially cancel other out for fantasy purposes. Dickson is the more productive of the two. He should replicate the 54 catches for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns he had last year, but neither he nor Pitta are TE1s.

Projections: 55 catches 550 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

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Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here. For the short version, I feel the same away about the Titans and Jake Locker that I felt about Matt Stafford and the Lions last year. You have to be conservative, but even if you are, Locker makes a lot of sense as a low end QB1. That team has drafted so well in the past 4-5 years and looks ready to pop.

8/20/12: The Titans have named Jake Locker starting quarterback. Locker averaged 8.2 YPA and had 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions last season, but he also only completed 51.5% of his passes. He has accuracy issues dating back to his days at Washington and if his last Preseason start is any indication (4-11 for 21 yards), those aren’t past him. He has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (270 pts standard/320 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

Unlike last year, Chris Johnson won’t be more focused on getting paid this offseason than staying in shape. It took him until the 2nd half of the season last year to even remotely resemble CJ2K, but in his last 8 games, he carried the ball 141 times for 681 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 282 carries for 1362 yards and 6 touchdowns. He could be even better this season, especially with the addition of Steve Hutchinson at upfront.

He’ll probably also get more carries. The Titans don’t have another back capable of challenging him and they should run more than the 376 times they ran last year, 30th in the league. His touchdowns should also increase. The 22/8 passing/rushing touchdown ratio the Titans had last year should prove to be an outlier. Finally, if Jake Locker is under center, his rushing ability and ability to throw stretch the defense with his arm will take the defense’s focus off of Johnson. Johnson had his best years when Vince Young, who could do the same sorts of things, was under center.

Projection: 300 carries 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 45 catches 350 receiving yards (233 pts standard/278 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/31/12: I’ve maintained all along that Britt has the ability to be a top-10 wide receiver with Jake Locker throwing him the football. He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Now he’s only getting suspended 1 game and should be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by week 2. He might not become a top-10 receiver this year with the uncertainty about the knee and the one game he’ll miss, but he definitely has the upside and he’s worth the risk as a WR2/flex type in the early mid rounds.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: Adam Schefter reports that Britt will likely receive only a short suspension, somewhere between 1-3 games. He’s also made an incredible recovery from 2 knee surgeries and is impressing in work on the side and could be activated from the PUP any day now. I originally projected him to play 12 games, now I’m changing his projections to 14 games. Remember, in his last 14 full games, he’s caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s got incredible upside in the mid rounds still.

7/26/12: There are three numbers that are important for Britt. The first is 12, meaning 12 touchdowns over his last 14 games, to go with 56 catches and 1146 yards, despite generally mediocre quarterbacking (Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Matt Hasselbeck). The 2nd number is 8, however, meaning 8 arrests in the last 3 years since entering the league. He’ll almost definitely be suspended after his last one, for DUI. He would have been suspended last season, but Roger Goodell agreed not to suspend guys for what they did during the lockout. He won’t be so lucky this time around.

The 3rd number is 3, meaning 3 knee surgeries in the last 10 months. I’m cutting his originally projected numbers by 25%. He might not miss 4 games, but he could and even if he doesn’t, he’ll be far from 100%. Let him be someone else’s problem, unless you can get him late, in which case he’s a sleeper with nice upside. His current ADP in the 7th round is far too rich, however.

In the last 2 seasons, Britt has played 13 entire games. In those 14 games, he has 56 catches for 1046 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 64 catches for 1195 yards and 14 touchdowns. And he did that with Kerry Collins, Vince Young and just 2 games of Matt Hasselbeck. There’s serious sleeper value with him in the mid rounds, even all of the receiving options the Titans have. He just needs to stay on the field for 16 games. He had another knee surgery this offseason, but it doesn’t sound serious.

Projection: 60 catches 960 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (144 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

8/31/12: Kenny Britt will only be suspended 1 game. With Britt back and Kendall Wright coming in, Washington almost definitely won’t have another 1000 yard season, but he’s improved from 2010 as a football player and his quarterback situation has been upgraded so even if he has fewer targets than in 2010, he should exceed his 2010 production. He’s a nice late round “handcuff” for Britt because he’ll see plenty of targets should Britt get hurt again.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: With Britt likely missing 2 games instead of 4, like I originally predicted, Washington obviously gets a stock down. He caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year out of necessity, but now Britt is coming back from injury and they’ve brought in Kendall Wright in the first round. He caught just 42 passes for 687 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010. His stats should be closer to that in 2012.

7/26/12:  Remember, Nate Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns in Britt’s absence last year. He won’t quite do that this year because Britt won’t miss as much action as he did last year and because of the presence of rookie receiver Kendall Wright. However, he deserves a stock up after Britt’s latest surgery and arrest.

Nate Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year with Kenny Britt out, but now Britt is back and they’ve added Kendall Wright. They have a better quarterback, but Washington should regress back to his 2008-2010 levels of statistical production.

Projection: 51 catches 750 yards 6 receiving touchdowns (111 pts standard/162 pts PPR)

TE Jared Cook (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

Jared Cook quietly emerged as one of the better tight ends in the league last year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and if his last 3 games were any indication (21 catches for 335 yards and 1 touchdown), he could be even better this year, especially if the Titans upgrade their quarterback situation from Hasselbeck to Locker.

Projection: 54 catches 820 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/166 pts PPR)

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Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

Like Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck should be a solid QB1 with upside as a rookie. I expect him to have better passing numbers than either Newton or Griffin, but he won’t match either of their rushing numbers, which is why Griffin has the advantage over Luck in fantasy, at least for this year.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 240 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (260 pts standard/306 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

With Joseph Addai gone, Donald Brown looks like the clear lead back in Indianapolis. However, the former 1st round pick has had a very inconsistent career. Both Delone Carter and Vick Ballard could challenge for his job at some point this season if he struggles. There is some upside here with Brown in an improved Indianapolis offense.

Projection: 180 carries 770 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches 180 receiving yards (137 pts standard/157 pts PPR)

RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

8/7/12: Vick Ballard, not Delone Carter, is listed as Donald Brown’s primary backup. Ballard is the only one of Indianapolis’ 3 backs drafted by the current regime and in an unclear backup, that means a lot. If Brown gets benched, which will probably happen, Ballard will become a starting running back and even until then, he’ll serve as a power compliment to Brown.

He’ll need Carter and Brown to struggle to become the lead back, but that could happen. The Colts had 3 backs go over 100 carries last year with Brown, Carter, Joseph Addai. They could have a similar thing happen this year with Brown, Carter and the rookie Ballard. There’s some sleeper value with him.

Projection: 150 carries 650 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 18 catches 140 receiving yards (115 pts standard/133 pts PPR)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Moving Wayne down a little bit, upon closer examination of the Colts’ receiving corps. You can read about it here.

Reggie Wayne still managed 75 catches for 960 yards and 4 touchdowns last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback, but here’s nearing that point where even Hall of Fame wide receivers fall off a cliff statistically. I’d let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 64 catches 870 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (123 pts standard/187 pts PPR)

WR Austin Collie (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Collie is the Colts’ receiver you want to own, even after his latest minor concussion. Read about it here.

Projection: 73 catches 930 receiving yards 6 total touchdowns (129 pts standard/202 pts PPR)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Fleener hasn’t quite been as big of a part of the offense in the Preseason as anticipated. Wide receiver Austin Collie has been Luck’s favorite target.

I like Fleener to have an immediate impact. Andrew Luck loves throwing to his tight ends and the Colts should use plenty of two-tight ends sets to get Dwayne Allen and Fleener involved, though Fleener is the better receiver and more useful player for fantasy purposes. Luck has familiarity with Fleener and should target him early and often, particularly in the red zone. As I’ve said before, this Colts receiving corps still leaves a lot to be desired and Fleener might finish the season 2nd on the team in receiving. There’s some potential for him to have a Rob Gronkowski esque rookie season.

Projection: 42 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/145 pts PPR)

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Houston Texans Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Matt Schaub (Houston)

There was a time when Schaub was an elite fantasy quarterback, but the Texans have become more of a run heavy team with Arian Foster and Ben Tate over these past few years. In fact, in 10 games last year, Schaub threw the ball 292 times, which translates to 467 times over 16 games. They should pass a bit more than that this year, but if they don’t, and Schaub can’t maintain his career high 8.5 YPA from last year, he could throw for less than 4000 yards. He also only had 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 10 games last year, meaning 25 and 10 over 16 games. And then, of course, he’s missed at least 5 games in 3 of 5 years as a starter. He’s pretty low on the fantasy totem pole this year. This might even be a little high.

Projection:  4120 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (247 pts standard/297 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Arian Foster (Houston)

In a weak year for running backs, Arian Foster is the only one I really, really love and I’m taking him #1 in a heartbeat. Yes, the Texans have Ben Tate, but they also run more than almost any team in the league. In the 12 games he was healthy last year, Foster had 268 carries for 1191 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 357 carries for 1588 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Matt Schaub will be back this year, but they won’t run any less. In the 6 games Foster and Schaub played in healthy last year, Foster carried the ball 161 times, which is 368 times over 16 games. He probably won’t have quite that many next season, but he should approach the 327 carries he had in 2010. A full season of Schaub should push his touchdown total closer to the 18 he had in 2010 than the 12 he had in 2011. He lost 2 starting offensive linemen, so he should be a little down from the 4.7 YPC he’s averaged in his career, but the Texans are so good at producing starting offensive linemen in their scheme that it might not matter that much.

Projection: 320 carries 1440 rushing yards 16 total touchdowns 60 catches 600 receiving yards (300 pts standard/360 pts PPR)

RB Ben Tate (Houston)

The Texans run more than any team in the league so there’s still some value with Ben Tate. His 5.4 YPC from last year probably isn’t replicable, especially after the Texans lost 2 starting offensive lineman. However, he remains a decent RB for your bench and probably the most valuable handcuff in the league. Arian Foster owners will want to own him in case of a Foster injury.

Projection: 150 carries 720 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches 110 receiving yards (113 pts standard/128 pts PPR)

WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

I’m torn on Andre Johnson. On one hand, he had 86 catches for 1216 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2010 in just 13 games after back-to-back 100 catch 1500 yard seasons in 2008 and 2009. He didn’t do much last year thanks to injuries, but he should be fully healthy this year. On the other hand, he’s turns 31 in July and the Texans don’t pass as much as they used to and he’s had a history of injury problems. We should see slightly less than peak production for Johnson this year and there’s some downside.

Projection: 80 catches 1200 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (168 pts standard/248 pts PPR)

WR Kevin Walter (Houston)

With Jacoby Jones gone, Walter is the Texans’ only other veteran wide receiver besides Andre Johnson. He should be able to hold off their young receivers for the starting job. However, he’s not that talented. He couldn’t even establish himself as a viable fantasy option when Andre Johnson was hurt last year. There’s no upside with him and some downside if he loses his starting job midseason.

Projection: 50 catches 600 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (84 pts standard/134 pts PPR)

TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

Owen Daniels should once again have a solid season. The Texans have a bunch of weapons, but Daniels should be Schaub’s favorite after Andre Johnson.

Projection: 60 catches 660 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (90 pts standard/150 pts PPR)

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Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

8/20/12: The Dolphins have named Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback. You can do a lot better than him for a QB2 though. He has no receiving corps and he’s incredibly raw. The only reason he’s starting is because veteran David Garrard got hurt and other veteran Matt Moore stunk up the joint this Preseason. They’re starting him out of necessity, not because he’s ready. In his only Preseason start, he was 11 of 23 for 100 yards.

Projection: 3300 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (194 pts standard/226 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Reggie Bush (Miami)

Reggie Bush finally made it through a season healthy last year, carrying the ball 216 times in 15 games and keeping 2nd round rookie Daniel Thomas at bay. However, prior to that he hadn’t gone over 106 carries since 2007. I wouldn’t buy high with him. I also don’t see his 5.0 YPC from last year as replicable. He has gone over 4.2 YPC only one other time in his career and the Dolphins lost two starting offensive linemen this offseason.

Projection: 150 carries 650 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 40 catches 300 receiving yards (125 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

RB Daniel Thomas (Miami)

Bush and Thomas combined for 381 carries last year. I don’t see them quite reaching that number this year. Their new Head Coach Joe Philbin comes from a pass heavy team in Green Bay and probably won’t run as much as the more conservative Tony Sparano. Also, if Bush gets hurt, Thomas wouldn’t necessarily be a 20+ carry per game back. They did use a 4th round pick on Lamar Miller, who could vulture some carries from Thomas if Bush gets hurt.

Still, given Bush’s injury history, I see Thomas leading the team in carries, but Bush being more valuable from a fantasy perspective because of his pass catching abilities and Thomas’ mere 3.5 YPC from last season. Thomas will probably get the goal line looks, but there might not be too many of those to go around on a poor Miami offense.

Projection: 180 carries 720 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 16 catches 120 yards (114 pts standard/130 pts PPR)

WR Davone Bess (Miami)

Bess is a talented receiver, but he can’t really play outside. He’ll stay in the slot, probably with Hartline and Legedu Naanee outside competing to be the #1 receiver. Bess had 51 catches for 537 yards and 3 touchdowns last year on a poor passing offense out of the slot. He should be able to replicate those stats this season.

Projection: 55 catches 570 receiving yards 3 receiving touchdowns (75 pts standard/130 pts PPR)

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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo)

There’s upside to be had here. In 7 games before going down with a rib injury last year, Fitzpatrick threw for 1739 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. After 7 games, Fitzpatrick really struggled, but that rib injury, as well as injuries to offensive players like Demetress Bell, Eric Wood, and Fred Jackson, were probably largely to blame. Over 16 games, that’s 3975 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

Of course, he had never done anything like that in his career before then and it’s possible he gets hurt again, so there is downside for the league’s leader in interceptions last year. I basically averaged those projected stats with his actual stats from last year to get my projection for him. I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my starter, but if I couldn’t grab an elite quarterback to be my starter and had to settle for a middle of the run starter, Fitzpatrick would probably be my choice as a high upside backup if available.

Projection: 3900 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 220 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (252 pts standard/304 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

There was a time when Fred Jackson was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011. In 9 games when he was healthy, he had 163 carries for 917 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 290 carries for 1630 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. However, CJ Spiller was really good down the stretch for the Bills and they did use the 9th overall pick on him 2 years ago.

Jackson is 31, though he has only 817 carries in his career because he spent years working his way up out of Division-III Coe College. They also just gave him an extension, but I still think we’ll see closer to a 2-1 split between Jackson and Spiller rather than the Jackson dominated split we saw early last year. I also don’t see him averaging 5.5 YPC again. He should still get the goal line carries and he catches the ball a good amount as well.

Projection: 200 carries 920 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 350 receiving yards (175 pts standard/210 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

Spiller and Jackson have combined for 296 and 277 carries in the last 2 years. I think Jackson will continue to be the lead back like he was early last season, albeit probably not on the 290 carry pace he was on because of his age and Spiller’s play down the stretch last year when Jackson was hurt. However, Jackson has proven over his career to be the more talented and durable back and they just gave him an extension. He’ll probably get 2 carries for each of Spiller’s, leaving Spiller as nothing but a backup in fantasy circles unless Jackson gets hurt.

Projection: 100 carries 450 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 35 catches 240 receiving yards (99 pts/134 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

Johnson has 82 catches for 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He should be able to surpass 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns again and could have a career high season if Ryan Fitzpatrick plays as well as he did last season before the rib injury. The Bills still don’t have very many other talented options besides Johnson unless 3rd round rookie TJ Graham can make huge strides in his first season as a pro.

Projection: 80 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts/244 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Chandler isn’t a very good tight end. He’s big, but he doesn’t move well at all. However, the Bills don’t have another option at the position and Fitzpatrick seems to like throwing to him in the red zone. If Fitzpatrick plays like he did early last year, Chandler could surpass the 38 catches for 389 yards and 6 touchdowns he had last season. He’s still not fantasy startable.

Projection: 42 catches 450 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (87 pts/129 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

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New York Jets Fantasy Football Projections

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I wouldn’t recommend drafting Mark Sanchez because he could easily lose his job to Tim Tebow midseason and I wouldn’t recommend picking up Tebow until he’s actually starting.

RB Shonn Greene (NY Jets)

7/1/12: Greene has he has been led to believe by the coaching staff that he will exceed the career high 253 carries he had last year. They don’t seem confident in backup Joe McKnight with LaDainian Tomlinson gone and they want to get back to running the football more. Greene isn’t very talented, but he’ll get you volume yardage as he could be one of the league leaders in carries if he stays healthy.

The Jets didn’t add another back until the 6th round this year, even though they lost LaDainian Tomlinson, who was their #2 back. Some take this as a sign that they believe in Greene’s ability to take the next step as a back, but I take it as more of a sign of confidence for Joe McKnight than anything. Remember, this team had a lot of interest in moving up for Trent Richardson, which would have made Greene the #2 back. Greene should have similar production to last year, maybe a little better if Tebow takes over as the starting quarterback and forces front 7s to focus on his ability to run the ball as well. Just ask Willis McGahee how valuable that is. Tebow would probably vulture some touchdowns though, but Mark Sanchez could too. He scored 6 times last year on the ground.

Projection: 270 carries 1220 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (192 pts standard/222 pts PPR)

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

Bilal Powell looks like the favorite to be Shonn Greene’s primary handcuff. He’ll only see passing downs at first, but Greene is a pretty average runner who only has fantasy value on volume. It wouldn’t shock me if Powell impressed and started eating into his workload on a run heavy team. He’s an interesting handcuff for career and late round sleeper.

Projection: 90 carries 410 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 22 catches 180 receiving yards (77 pts standard/99 pts PPR)

WR Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)

8/21/12: Holmes has missed a lot Training Camp and the Preseason with various injuries. The Jets’ passing offense isn’t going to be very good anyway so I’d like him be someone else’s problem.

Holmes will be limited by the Jets’ poor offense, but he should have a bounce back year after last year. Remember, this guy had 52 catches for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns in 12 games in 2010 with the Jets. He’s spent this offseason working out with Mark Sanchez so he’ll play better if Sanchez is the starter. And if Tebow is the starter, well he’ll have an upgrade at quarterback in that situation.

Projection: 50 catches 650 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (101 pts standard/151 pts PPR)

WR Stephen Hill (NY Jets)

8/21/12: If I were to own a Jets wide receiver, it probably would be Hill. Holmes can’t seem to stay healthy and while Hill is incredibly raw, he’ll be targeted around the goal line an awful lot at 6-5, just like Plaxico Burress last season, who caught 8 touchdowns. Burress caught 45 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Hill, even as a rookie, should be able to get those numbers, with upside if Holmes misses any time with injury and/or Tebow becomes the starter. If Tebow becomes the starter, Hill could very well be his top target because, with Tebow, it doesn’t matter so much if you aren’t a great route runner, as long as you are athletic (see Thomas, Demaryius).

The Jets most likely won’t be a very good passing offense no matter who the starter is and Stephen Hill is incredibly raw. However, if Tebow takes over, he could have the same chemistry throwing to Hill as he did throwing to a similar player in Demaryius Thomas last year. Hill will also be a red zone threat the way that Plaxico Burress was last year. Burress didn’t play well, but still managed to score 8 times. There’s some upside here late.

Projection: 42 catches 670 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (109 pts standard/151 pts PPR)

TE Dustin Keller (NY Jets)

8/21/12: Dustin Keller had a breakout season last year, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading a miserable receiving corps. I thought his production would go down this season because the receiving corps around him would be improved, but it doesn’t look like it. Keller should once again lead this miserable bunch in receiving. If you miss out on one of the top tight ends, Keller is a nice fall back option in the mid rounds.

Keller had a career high 65 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but with Holmes bouncing back and Stephen Hill coming in, I expect those numbers to dip, especially if Tebow, who rarely threw to tight ends, takes over as the starter at some point.

Projection: 60 catches 760 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (106 pts standard/166 pts PPR)

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New England Patriots Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Patriots

QB Tom Brady (New England)

8/7/12: I’m moving Brady’s production up a little with Brandon Lloyd dominating in camp. Tom Brady was 346 for 470 (73.6%) for 4420 yards (9.4 YPA), 39 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions when throwing to Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. Throwing to everyone else, he was 131 of 216 (60.6%), 1719 yards (8.0 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (the rest were throw aways and other non-targets). Brandon Lloyd will undoubtedly help, as will the presence of Josh McDaniels.

Tom Brady threw for 5235 yards last year on the strength of 611 passing attempts, but he’s only twice gone over 580 attempts in a season and the Patriots should have a better defense next year. I also think his 8.5 YPA from last year is unsustainable as he’s only gone over 8 twice in his career. The other time he did that was 2007, when Josh McDaniels was his offensive coordinator.

McDaniels is back, but Brady is also aging, turning 35 in August. He had noticeably diminished arm strength in 2011 and completed just 16 passes that went further than 20 yards in the air. He has a strong receiving corps, but I like Brees and Stafford a little bit more because of how much their offenses pass. They won’t have to average more than 8 YPA to approach 5000 yards.

Projection: 4730 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (332 pts standard/408 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

8/7/12: Of the Patriots two 2nd year backs, Stevan Ridley has been the most impressive. He looks poised to take over almost the entirety of BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ old work load (410 carries in the last 2 seasons), leaving Vereen as most a change of pace back. He’s much more explosive than BJGE too and could have double digit touchdowns on this explosive offense.

7/26/12: Joseph Addai was cut. Move Ridley up slightly.

It’s always tough to know what Belichick is going to do with his backs. As it stands, it sounds like Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will fairly evenly split the early down carries and Woodhead will stay in his very specific role as a pass catching/3rd down back. Ridley and BenJarvus Green Ellis combined for 268 carries last year. Ridley and Vereen should split those carries this year with Ridley probably being the lead back. Ridley has the most value in fantasy leagues because he’ll probably be the lead back and the goal line back. Bill Belichick is known to be a very frustrating coach for Fantasy Football owners, however.

Projection: 180 carries 850 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 14 catches 100 receiving yards (149 pts standard/163 pts PPR)

RB Shane Vereen (New England)

8/7/12: While Ridley is impressing in Training Camp, Vereen is struggling to distance himself from undrafted rookie free agent Brandon Bolden. He’s not worth a whole lot in fantasy circles, except as a handcuff to Ridley.

7/26/12: Joseph Addai was cut. Move Vereen up slightly.

Vereen will get a good amount of carries. Remember, he was actually a 2nd round pick in 2011, whereas Ridley was just a 3rd round pick. However, Ridley averaged 5.1 YPC last year and Vereen averaged just 3.8. Ridley should get more carries and the goal line carries, but there’s some sleeper value with Vereen if you can get him late.

Projection: 100 carries 410 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 18 catches 140 receiving yards (73 pts standard/91 pts PPR)

RB Danny Woodhead (New England)

Woodhead is probably the easiest New England back to project. He had 77 carries last year in a very specialized role and he should continue in that exact role this year. He may get a few more carries because Kevin Faulk is gone, but he could still have to contend with Joseph Addai. He’s got a career 5.1 YPC and should catch closer to the 34 passes he caught in 2010 than the 18 he caught in 2010, but he’s still got very limited fantasy football value.

Projection: 80 carries 400 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 25 catches 250 receiving yards (83 pts/108 pts standard)

WR Wes Welker (New England)

8/7/12: Brandon Lloyd should have a strong year, which will eat at the aging Welker’s targets. He doesn’t average a lot of YPC or score a lot of touchdowns. He’s mostly a volume receiver, who ranked 2nd in the league in targets this season, and he should see a smaller volume of targets this season. Tom Brady is good, but he’s not good enough for Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez ALL to have their normal levels of production at the same time.

Welker had a career year last year, but wasn’t quite as good down the stretch. After surpassing 100 yards 4 times in his first 5 games, he only had 4 more 100 yard games, including the playoffs, and after scoring 5 times in his first 4 games, he scored just 5 times the rest of the way, including playoffs. He’s getting older and he has a ton of competition for receptions, so it’s likely he regresses to his 2007-2009 self, which is still very good, but not elite in fantasy.

Projection: 100 catches 1040 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

WR Brandon Lloyd (New England)

8/7/12: Brandon Lloyd is reportedly dominating in Patriots Training Camp. He’s their best deep threat since Randy Moss gave a shit and he is obviously very comfortable in Josh McDaniels’ system. Remember, this guy led the league in receiving two years ago. He won’t do that because the Patriots just have too many options, but he could easily go for over 1000 yards receiving.

Before McDaniels was fired as Head Coach in Denver in 2010, Lloyd caught 60 passes for 1153 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games with Kyle Orton as his quarterback. In 2011, he was traded to St. Louis, where McDaniels was the offensive coordinator. He caught 51 passes for 683 yards and 5 touchdowns in 11 games with an injured Sam Bradford, AJ Feeley, and Kellen Clemens at quarterback. In the last 2 years, he has 111 catches for 1836 yards and 14 touchdowns in 23 games with McDaniels.

Over 16 games, that’s 77 catches for 1277 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Kyle Orton, AJ Feeley, Kellen Clemens, and an injured Sam Bradford throwing him the football. Now he has Tom Brady throwing him the football. However, he’s also got a ton of competition for balls around him. Welker and Gronkowski should both go over 1000 yards again, so I’d be surprised if Lloyd did so as well. 3 1000 yard receivers on one team is unheard of, even for the Patriots. He’ll still have a good season.

Projection: 65 catches 1000 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (154 pts standard/219 pts PPR)

TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

8/7/12: Same thing with Welker. Welker, Gronkowski, and Lloyd could all have 1000 yard seasons, but it’s unlikely that any of the 3 will have much more than that.

Gronkowski should also lose some production to Brandon Lloyd and I like Jimmy Graham more than him in fantasy, but he’ll still have a fantastic season. He caught 90 passes for 1327 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. That’s insane.

Projection: 72 catches 1070 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (173 pts standard/245 pts PPR)

TE Aaron Hernandez (New England)

8/7/12: My previous projections for Hernandez, who is reportedly dominating in Training Camp, were too low. He’ll take a statistical hit with Lloyd coming in too, but not a huge one. Remember, he’s never played a full 16 game season either, playing 14 a piece in his first 2 seasons, so if he does that, he could have a career high in yardage. He’s also being used as a fullback and could get you yardage on the ground. He had 45 yards on 5 carries last year in the regular season and then rushed for 61 yards on 5 carries in the playoffs against the Broncos. He could surpass 100 yards rushing.

This might seem a little low for Hernandez. However, the Patriots added a ton of wide receivers this offseason. They ran more two-tight end sets in passing situations than any team in the league last year. With guys like Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney coming in, that number should go down. Whereas Gronkowski’s production will be hurt because he’ll have more competition for balls, Hernandez figures to actually see the field less.

Projection: 65 catches 800 receiving yards 7 total touchdowns 100 rushing yards (132 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

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Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Browns

QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)

It’s going to be a rough rookie year for Weeden in Cleveland. He’s not a talent like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, etc. He struggled under pressure and with his decision making at Oklahoma State, two things that Big 12 opponents also mentioned they noticed about Weeden. He has little to no receiving help. It’s not advisable to have him on your fantasy team.

Projection: 3250 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (167 pts standard/201 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8/27/12: Trent Richardson is expected to be back for week 1, so I’m moving him up slightly, but I’m still down on him because he’s a rookie on a poor offense and coming off an offseason in which he had 2 knee surgeries. He’ll be overdrafted.

8/13/12: Poor Browns. They just can’t catch a break. Trent Richardson will have to undergo surgery on his left knee. That surgery is just a scope so it’s as minor as it comes, but this is the 2nd time that knee has been operated on this year, so it’s not what you want to see from the player you just spent the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on.

The Browns expect Richardson to be back for the opener, but that’s not certain and it’s definitely possible he’ll miss a couple games at some point this season with lingering knee pain. The Browns could also scale back his workload early in September. As talented as Richardson is, rookie running backs have had trouble adjusting to a 16-game NFL season in recent years as 1st round pick running backs have averaged just have just averaged 165 carries as rookies since 2007. It’s important to keep fantasy projections for him conservative as a rookie.

Richardson will be the feature back in Cleveland, but I’d be wary of drafting him too early. These are the 1st round rookie running backs since 2007 and how many carries they had as rookies, as well as their yards per carry. Mark Ingram- 122 (3.9), CJ Spiller- 74 (3.8), Ryan Mathews- 158 (4.3), Jahvid Best- 171 (3.2), Knowshon Moreno- 247 (3.8), Donald Brown- 78 (3.6), Chris Wells- 176 (4.5), Darren McFadden- 113 (4.4), Jonathan Stewart- 184 (4.5), Felix Jones- 30 (8.9), Rashard Mendenhall- 19 (3.1), Chris Johnson- 251 (4.9), Adrian Peterson- 238 (5.6), Marshawn Lynch- 280 (4.0). Richardson is better than most, if not all of those backs, but I’d still temper my expectations because he could hit a rookie wall in his first 16 game season. He also doesn’t play on a very good offense, so his YPC and touchdown potential isn’t great.

Projection: 230 carries 980 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 32 catches 260 receiving yards (166 pts standard/198 pts PPR)

RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland)

8/27/12: Hardesty is moving down, but is still an interesting handcuff for Richardson because of Richardson’s two knee surgeries.

8/13/12: Largely a bust as a 2010 2nd round pick for the first 2 years of his career, Montario Hardesty is reportedly finally healthy and looked it in their first preseason game, starting in the absence of Richardson. Because we need to keep projections for Richardson conservative as a rookie, Hardesty makes for an interesting handcuff and potential late round sleeper.

Projection: 100 carries 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 18 catches 120 receiving yards (80 pts standard/98 pts PPR)

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

8/20/12: In essentially Cleveland’s 3rd preseason game (they used their 2nd preseason game as their regular season tune up instead of their 3rd because they play the Eagles in week 3 of the Preseason and week 1 of the Regular season), Little looked great and led the way with 4 catches for 45 yards. He was actually 17th in the league in targets last year, but only managed 61 catches for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns for two reasons, his quarterback play and his own play.

Browns quarterbacks completed just 56.1% of their passes for 5.8 YPA and 16 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Brandon Weeden, at the very least, should be an upgrade. However, Little also dropped 14 passes last season. If he had caught half of those, he would have had something like 68 catches for 800 receiving yards. He was incredibly raw as a rookie, after missing his final year at North Carolina with suspension, but he’s gotten himself into better shape this offseason and seems poised for a breakout season. He’s still, by far, his team’s best receiver and could approach 1000 yards if Weeden is better than I think and is even a league average starter.

Little was really raw as a rookie and should only be better in his 2nd season, especially since they got him an upgrade at quarterback. Besides, who else is Weeden going to throw to? Little is a solid WR5 or so with upside if both he and Weeden prove to be better than expected.

Projection: 72 catches 850 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (121 pts standard/193 pts PPR)

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Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bengals

QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

I’m expecting a sophomore slump for Andy Dalton. Dalton played well to start last season, completing 61.5% of his passes for an average of 6.6 YPA, and 12 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, leading the Bengals to a 6-2 record. However, in the 2nd half of the season, teams seemed to catch on and the Bengals went just 3-5 as Dalton completed just 54.6% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, and 8 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.

The Bengals also didn’t beat a playoff team all last year, going 0-8. Against a tougher schedule and with the league catching on to his game, Dalton could have a down season this year. I think he’s one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league. There was a time when Colt McCoy had a decent rookie year, but teams caught on eventually and now he’s a backup. Dalton was a similar player coming out of school.

Projection: 3280 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 130 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (192 pts standard/228 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

8/27/12: BenJarvus Green-Ellis will be the clear starter in Cincinnati, at least early in the season. He’s not very talented and could easy lose carries or his job to Bernard Scott sometime this season, but he moves up a little bit.

It’s hard to get excited about either of Cincinnati’s backs. Both averaged under 4 yards per carry last year and neither of them catch passes all that well. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is currently expected to be the lead back, but I really think Scott could surpass him in carries by the end of the season. I really don’t think BJGE is that good. The Patriots’ offense made him look a lot better than he is and even then he didn’t look that good. He’ll get the goal line carries, however.

Projection: 200 carries 740 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 14 catches 100 receiving yards (126 pts standard/140 pts PPR)

RB Bernard Scott (Cincinnati)

8/27/12: Bernard Scott will start the season as a pure backup, though he could end up stealing BJGE’s job by the end of the season. The problem is that Scott isn’t very talented either. I would stay away from Cincinnati’s backfield entirely.

Scott will probably be the Bengals’ lead back by the end of the season because he’s the more talented of the two backs, but he’s still not very good. He won’t get the goal line carries or catch a lot of passes for you either. His biggest value is his rushing yardage. I wouldn’t want either of Cincinnati’s backs in my starting lineup, but Scott does have some sleeper potential as a RB5 or so.

Projection: 150 carries 570 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 17 catches 130 receiving yards (94 pts standard/111 pts PPR)

WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

With Andy Dalton having the sophomore slump I’m predicting for him, Green’s production will obviously dip a bit. He’s still too talented not to be a fantasy starter, however. He could still see his touchdowns increase next season. The 7 he had in 2011 seems awfully low for someone as talented as Green, however much Dalton does like targeting tight end Jermaine Gresham in the red zone.

Projection: 62 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

Gresham should also see a small dip in his production this season, particularly his touchdowns. AJ Green is way more talented than Gresham so it wouldn’t surpass me if Green became Dalton’s favorite red zone target over Gresham.

Projection: 52 catches 560 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (86 pts standard/138 pts PPR)

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