2012 NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Yards per play differential is my favorite single stat and right now, the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in it. However, as with any stat, you have to add a human element to it sometimes to interpret it. Baltimore’s defense, uncharacteristically, has been pretty middle of the pack this year, but an offense that ranks 1st in yards per play is behind their high overall ranking. The defensive relative struggles are explainable. The team is missing top pass rusher Terrell Suggs, among others, and ranks just 24th in the league in pass rush efficiency. This has lead to a pass defense that ranks 27th in the league in YPA.

Their suddenly explosive offense is also explainable if you believe that Joe Flacco has taken that next step as a quarterback in his 5th year in the league, thanks, in part, to Torrey Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has looked very good overall this season, completing 64.5% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. If he keeps that up all year, those will not only be career highs across the board, but he’ll put himself in the MVP discussion.

However, it’s worth noting that he has played very well in two games against poor pass defenses, Cincinnati ranks 28th and New England ranks 21st, despite facing Kevin Kolb and Jake Locker in two of their games, but he also struggled against the only good pass defense he’s faced so far, going 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against the Eagles and their 1st ranked pass defense. Just 3 games into the season, I’d say the jury is still out on Flacco as an elite quarterback.

Fortunately for him, he gets another easy test this week. Cleveland actually ranks 16th in the league against the pass, but if you exclude the game that Joe Haden played, they’re allowing 8.0 YPA, which would be 22nd in the league and that’s against Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Haden is out for this one, so the Browns don’t have much chance of stopping the Ravens’ offense. Aside from Haden, their secondary is a mess. They’ve already benched two starters back there and neither of their replacements have played much better.

Meanwhile, Jabaal Sheard, their best and only pass rusher from last season, is having a major sophomore slump, with just 6 total pressures and no sacks on 112 pass rush snaps through 3 games. The Browns also have some trouble against the run, ranking 18th in YPC allowed, clearly missing injured nose tackle Phil Taylor. This was the league’s 5th ranked scoring defense last year, but missing key members with other key members struggling, they’re nowhere near that good this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns are also pretty bad. The Ravens, as I mentioned, do struggle against the pass, but Brandon Weeden is the worst quarterback they’ve faced so far (Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Tom Brady). Weeden might not be terrible, but he has no help from his supporting cast. They are incredibly young offensively. Besides Joe Thomas, only the washed up Ben Watson is playing significant snaps and was drafted before 2009 and Watson might be losing his job to 2nd year tight end Jordan Cameron. They have 5 rookies playing major roles and 2 players in their 2nd year, 3 if you include Cameron.

Given their youth, they’re at a major disadvantage travelling on 3 days rest. The Ravens’ offense also might not perform up to their normal level on a short week, as short week’s tend to favor defenses (the under is 67-50 on Thursday Night Football since 1989), but the Ravens have an advantage being a proven, veteran, well coached team at home. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday since 1989, including 10-3 ATS when the line is 10+. The Browns’ best offensive player is Trent Richardson, but he won’t be able to do much in this game because Baltimore is one again a top-5 run defense.

This game seems pretty cut and dry. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league and the Browns are one of the worst. As big as this spread is, we’re actually get some line value with the home team. Baltimore’s point per play differential is 1.7 yards better than Cleveland’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” If you do that, Baltimore would be 14.5 point favorites and that’s not even taking into account how much worse the Browns are without Haden. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting.

The experienced, proven Ravens also have a major advantage as huge home favorites on Thursday Night. They’ll be much better prepared for this game than the young Browns, who have to travel. Two factors keep this from being a big play. One is just the size of the line. I hate making big plays on 10+ point favorites. The other is that Baltimore could conceivably be flat off of a huge win last week. Favorites coming off close win as dogs or favorites of 3 or less are 63-95 ATS since 2002, though that trend is less prevalent over the past few years (26-35 ATS since 2008). I still expect this to be a blowout and Baltimore is my survivor pick of the week. I’m also putting a unit on the under (44) because of the trend in mentioned earlier with over/unders on Thursday Night.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO)

Pick against spread: Baltimore -12 (-105) 2 units

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Week 3 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks

Week 3 Results

ATS: 6-9-1 -2 units/-$395

SU: 5-11

Upset Picks: 2-4 -380

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$675

Public Results ATS*: 6-9 -13 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 22-23-3 -7 units/-$1205

SU: 25-23

Upset Picks: 9-11 +$75

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$1030

Survivor: 1-2 (HOU, NE, NO)

Public Results ATS*: 20-27-1 -26 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Inconsistency of turnovers

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks

I talk a lot about the inconsistency of turnovers on a week to week basis in my picks. Here’s a little bit more into that and why I prefer to rely on yards per play differential rather than turnover differential.

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 6 or more win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 4 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 4 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.4 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 3 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 2 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 1 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002

Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 0 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 1 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 2 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.2 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 4 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 5 lose the turnover battle by an average of +0.6 in their following game since 2002

Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 6 or more win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

Yeah, how’s that Jets’ offense doing now? After scoring 48 in the opener in a heavily defense and special teams aided effort, the Jets scored just 10 points last week and Mark Sanchez, who was 19 of 27 for 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick in the opener, completed just 10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown against a Steeler defense missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. In actuality, Sanchez is probably not as bad as he looked last week, but he’s not as good as he looked week 1 either.

This week, his matchup is once again going to be hard. The Dolphins have a nice defense, as they did last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring defense. The thing they do best in run the stuff, which they rank 1st in the league at. And they haven’t been facing marginally talented backs. First they faced Houston’s dynamic duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate and last week they shut down Darren McFadden. Shonn Greene is significantly less talented than them, so Sanchez is going to be in a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs in this one.

The biggest difference for the Dolphins from week 1 to week 2 was the offense. In Week 1, the defense played well, but their offense’s ineptitude and high amount of turnovers made it just too hard for their defense. Last week, Ryan Tannehill played much better, they minimized the turnovers, moved the chains, scored points and made life a lot easier for their talented defense. If they can do that, they might surprise a few people.

However, that’s easier said than done. Tannehill’s performance was aided by Reggie Bush’s awesome effort on the ground as he rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jets’ typically have a good run defense, but they were run on with ease by CJ Spiller in the opener. However, after what Spiller did to Kansas City last week, that’s not looking so bad anymore and the Jets were much better against the run last week with stud nose tackle Sione Pouha in the lineup. Bush probably won’t have as good of a game and besides, Tannehill is a rookie, so it’s hard to trust him just yet.

In the opener, the Jets were without Pouha, but last week, they were without Darrelle Revis. They’ll get him back. Tannehill got to deal with the Raiders cornerback trio of Patrick Lee, Shawntae Spencer, and Joselio Hanson last week. Facing a tougher secondary, he should find life very hard once again, especially with a mediocre receiving corps. The good news is that the Jets rank 31st in pass rush efficiency (the Raiders are 32nd), so Tannehill should have time in the pocket like he did last week (pressured on 9 of 33 drop backs), even if they can’t establish the same running game as they did last week.

This figures to be a low scoring defensive battle overall. This line moved about 2 points from last week, so there’s a bit of an overreaction to Miami’s blowout win over the Raiders, but I still think the Dolphins are a little underrated. Their points per play differential is 0.6 points better than the Jets, who rank 26th in that statistic, which is a significant difference. Unless their offense puts up a total stinker again like they did week 1, their defense should be able make life tough for Mark Sanchez.

I know it’s risky to bet on Tannehill to be serviceable, but it is week 3 and rookie quarterbacks who start week 1 are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS since 2008 week 3. Besides, the Jets could find themselves caught in a breather game this week. Favorites before being dogs after losing as dogs are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets host San Francisco next week. It’s only a small bet because of Tannehill and because there’s a chance that the Jets could do to the Dolphins exactly what they did to the Bills week 1, dominate them defensively, dominate the field position battle, get easy scores, and then run up the score on a defense that is tired and quits. It’s a tough game plan to rely on, but it’s a possibility. One note, pay extra for field goal protection (+3), if you can.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-125) 2 units

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St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

In 2010, I consistently ranked the Bears lower than most and lower than their record would have suggested because I simply didn’t trust the combination of Jay Cutler, that offensive line, and Mike Martz to consistently win 3 or 4 games in a row against playoff caliber teams, so I didn’t like their Super Bowl chances. This year, I thought with Martz gone, it was safe to put them near the top of my Power Rankings, but after last week’s explosion, now I’m not so sure.

They’ll still win a lot of games (they won 11 in 2010), but this offensive line is a mess. Cutler didn’t play well last week, but he was pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs. That doesn’t help. Mike Tice is a good offensive line coach, but he’s been too overconfident in the last two years or so, thinking he can coach up a group that just doesn’t have the talent and ignoring the position in the offseason and the draft.

The good news for the Bears, Jay Cutler always takes a shit like that once or twice per year and it’s never meant anything. He’s not declining as a player. He’s still what he’s always been and with a solid supporting cast (except for the offensive line), this team can still win a bunch of games and take a wild card spot in the crowded NFC. I just don’t know how much I like their Super Bowl chances.

The fact that it was a Thursday Night Game had a lot to do with the loss as well. If you haven’t read Jason Whitlock’s article about how hypocritical Roger Goodell is pretending he cares about player safety, while simultaneously expanding Thursday Night Football to a season long thing and trying to expand the season to 18 games, here it is. It’s a very good read and yet another reason to hate Thursday Night Football. You may be thinking, how can you hate Thursday Night football? It’s another night of football. Yes, but it’s also sloppy football and if it’s a good matchup, it’s cheating us out of the opportunity to watch it under normal circumstances.

Last week it was Packers/Bears, two bitter rivals and two of the better teams in the National Football League, and what we got, because it was on Thursday, was a sloppy mess of two tired and unprepared teams. If that game had been on Sunday Night football or Monday Night football or time slot other than Thursday Night Football, it would have probably have been one of the best games of the week. Instead, it was painful to watch.

If you don’t believe me, look at the over/under record for as far back as there is data (1989). Since 1989, the over has won 50 times and the under has won 67 times. These are typically games that are much lower scoring than they are expected to be and than they probably should be, and on top of that, it risks injury for players playing tired. Roger Goodell has never played football. He doesn’t understand that, or maybe he just doesn’t care.

Home favorites are 46-23 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night, so the Bears were at a huge disadvantage. I went against that trend last week, only because I had a good reason. The Packers had really struggled the week before and the Bears had not, so the Packers would have more to work on during the week and be at a bigger disadvantage on a short week. Apparently not. Still, it’s important not to put a ton of value into that loss.

However, there was a big line movement from last week to this week on this game as the line was -10.5 last week and is -7.5 now, which is a big overreaction to one week. Matt Forte’s injury is a factor a bit, but Michael Bush can carry a load and the Bears will have had 10 days off since that big loss. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games).

That being said, I still feel like the Rams, one of my preseason underrated teams, is still being underrated. This team has played well in their first 2 games, almost knocking off Detroit in Detroit and then beating an upstart Washington team in St. Louis last week. I know the Redskins suffered key injuries in that game on defense and that made it easier, but the Rams suffered key injuries on offense, particularly the offensive line, and survived.

Missing 3 starters, the Rams’ offensive line isn’t doing too well right now, but they seem to have schemed around that and Sam Bradford is doing a much better job of getting the ball out quickly than he did last year. Still, Chicago has a good pass rush, so he will be under pressure, but the Rams have a good pass rush too and the Bears’ offensive line is horrendous, so Cutler will be under pressure as well.

On top of that, this is a potential breather game for the Bears. They’re coming off a loss as an underdog and will almost definitely be underdogs next week in Dallas. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. It’s unclear, however, if this will be a factor for them needing to make a statement win and after 10 days rest.

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, we’re getting good value with the Bears because of an overreaction and while Jay Cutler has had trouble in big games recently, he’s 5-1 ATS as favorites of 7+ since joining the Bears. They’ve had 10 days to rest and even though this is a potential breather game for them, it might not end up being that because they need to make a statement and because they’ve had so much rest. They Rams are also public underdogs, despite the overreaction in the line, and I hate to pick the public dog in that situation.

At the same time, the Rams are really underrated. These teams also are dead equal in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one I feel is the best indicator of future success. I also feel like both of these teams are going to end up in the playoffs and there’s just not a 4.5 point difference between them (3 points is home field advantage). I’m just going to take the points and hope for a backdoor cover that makes this less than a 7 point game or that the game will just be naturally close. My gut feeling is this won’t be a blowout. If this were the -10.5 it was before last week, St. Louis might have been one of my biggest picks of the week, but there’s a huge line overreaction here and I hate picking public dogs when there’s a huge line overreaction because typically that means I’m falling for the overreaction.

Public lean: St. Louis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 24 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against spread: St. Louis -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams. One of the 4 losses was because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week. In doing so, I broke one of my own rules, never overreact to one week (I also broke another one of my rules last week, never bet heavily on Jay Cutler, those two losses were two of just five. I should listen to myself.)

I had the Bills making it into the playoffs on the good defense, good running game, conservative offense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model, but after their week 1 loss, I overreacted and dropped them. However, the Bills bounced back big time this week and beat the Chiefs by 18 in a game that was 35-3 after the first 3 quarters before 2 garbage time scores. They looked exactly like what I envisioned they would and they can definitely continue to beat up on crappy competition like that. And for the record, no this is not an overreaction to one game. I’m simply undoing my previous overreaction. Without Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller looks like one of the best running backs in the league and the defense looks like I thought they would, which makes live easy for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Browns count as crappy competition, definitely. Without Joe Haden, they are probably the worst team in the league and at the very least they’re one of the worst. This is the type of team Buffalo should be able to establish their game plan against and dominate. I feel like the Bills are once again being really underrated, even more so than the beginning of the year.

In the beginning of the year, they were a popular sleeper and even with the Jets in the odds makers book, but one bad game and one good game and now all of a sudden they’re just -3 at a Browns team that should never be bet as anything other than dogs of 3+ against anyone other than really crappy teams. The Bills aren’t and I’m taking one of my original underrated teams to dominate them in Cleveland.

As long as I get field goal protection, this is a moderate sized bet and I do get field goal protection at -3. The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is because New England is next on the schedule for the Bills (and after that, San Francisco. They could be caught looking forward to that one. Still, I’m certainly not taking the Browns to win this game, even at home, and with such a small spread, that’s basically what you have to be comfortable doing if you take Cleveland.

Public lean: Buffalo (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Buffalo Bills 27 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3 (-105) 3 units

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Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, Titans

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. The one thing that’s remained constant is that the Lions are overrated. They needed a late comeback at home to beat the Rams week 1 and then they weren’t really competitive in San Francisco last week before a late garbage time touchdown.

The reason I thought Detroit was overrated was because of how one dimensional they are. They had a great passing offense, but they didn’t have much talent at the running back position and they couldn’t stop anyone defensively. Last year, they won just 5 of their final 12 games, including playoffs, and needed 4 comebacks of 13 points or more, an NFL record, to even win 10 games. Their defense ranked 23rd in scoring and I didn’t think they could keep relying on the offense to bail the defense out at a historic rate.

Besides, their strength, their passing offense, was very reliant on Matt Stafford, who coming into this season was just a one year wonder. For the record, he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for 7.3 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2 games. Except for the completion percentage, which has remained steady, those are all down from last year. He’s not bad or anything, but he doesn’t nearly have the help he needs for this to be an elite team, specifically defensively.

Defensively, they’ve been awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. Jake Locker isn’t that great either, completing 61.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but this is by far his easiest match up.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. None of those guys are any good. Locker should be able to move the ball on this group and in his 3rd start in the NFL, he could be more comfortable, especially now that Kenny Britt is expected to play a larger role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games.

One other thing that will help Locker out is that Chris Johnson should finally break through this week. CJ21 has been hilariously awful through the first 2 games of the season, rushing for 21 yards on 19 carries. However, the competition he’s faced has been stiff. I’m not saying he’s blameless; in fact he’s far from it, but last year he struggled against stiff competition and tore up bad run defenses. In 4 games against teams ranked 21st or worse in YPC, Johnson rushed for over 100 yards 4 times, over 130 yards 3 times and over 153 yards 2 times. The Lions ranked 30th against the run last year. They’ve been a little bit better this year, ranking 16th, but it’s only been 2 games and they didn’t make a single change in their defensive front 7 from last year to this year, so that decent ranking is probably a fluke. Chris Johnson should finally have a good game this week. That will take the pressure off of Locker.

So the Lions can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass. What can they do? Well, they can get to the quarterback, or at least they used to be able to. They rank 17th in pass rush efficiency this year, a stat they ranked 8th in last year. Like their improved run defense, this is probably also a fluke. I can’t think of any good reason why their pass rush would decline, other than possibly Kyle Vanden Bosch’s age (1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass rush snaps in his age 34 season). They should considering giving talented young backup Willie Young more snaps.

However, don’t expect the Lions to be able to get to Locker with ease this week. Tennessee’s offensive front can’t run block, but they are great in pass protection. They were the 2nd ranked offensive line in pass block efficiency last year. Locker will be under some pressure, like he has been in their first 2 games against tough competition (he’s been the 10th most pressured quarterback in the league), because the Lions have a tough pass rush too, but he should have enough time to have a solid game against a secondary that couldn’t stop Sam Bradford or Alex Smith.

So the Titans should be able to move the ball, but what about the Lions? They should be able to as well. Matt Stafford leads an above average passing game and they get Mikel Leshoure back from suspension this week, though it’s unclear how much he’ll play or how much he’ll help the running game. Besides, the Titans have surrendered 34 and 38 points in their first 2 games.

However, Matt Stafford is not on the level of Philip Rivers and Tom Brady, the Titans’ opponents in their first 2 games. Rivers in particular played an amazing game against them. Down his top receiver Antonio Gates, he completed 24 of 32 for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception despite being pressured on 20 of 37 drop backs. On top 20 pressured drop backs, he took just 3 sacks, scrambled twice and completed 10 of 16.

The Titans can get after the quarterback this year thanks to maturation of some of their young defensive linemen and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. They rank 2nd in the league in pass rush efficiency, which helps make up for the loss of Cortland Finnegan in the secondary. Remember, they were the league’s 8th rated scoring defense last year and this year, in spite of all the points they’ve given up, they’re pretty middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. That’s 23rd in the league this year, but it’s actually right in the middle of the best (4.1) and the worst (7.2). They rank 27th in yards per play differential because of their offense (4.9 yards per play, which is 29th) more so than their defense, so the Lions won’t have a field day or anything on the Titans defense. And the Titans’ offense, as I mentioned, seems due for a better game this week, for several reasons.

I don’t think the Titans are better than the Lions or anything, but this line implies that the Lions are 7 points better on a neutral field. That doesn’t make any sense to me and it wouldn’t have made any sense to the odds makers last week, who had the advance spread on this game at Tennessee -1 last week. Something like an even or Detroit -1 would have made more sense in this game, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the Titans. In spite of that, the public is predictably pounding the Lions this week. I love betting against the public at every chance I get, especially when the public is leaning one way heavily. The odds makers are rich for a reason and the public is getting slaughtered this year on big leans.

On top of the line value, I also think the Lions could be pretty flat this week. They’re coming off an emotional loss to a very talented team and might not get up for a non-conference 0-2 team, especially with a divisional test looming on the horizon next week. Road favorites in non-conference battles are 9-16 ATS since 1989 coming off a loss as a dog before playing a divisional opponent. I know it’s a really specific trend, which is why I had to go all the way back to 1989 to get statistically significant data, but it makes sense that the Lions would be flat this week, especially as a young team prone to penalties (they were the 3rd most penalized teams in the league last.

Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off back to back losses of 20+, which historically means they’re undervalued. Teams are 32-16 ATS in this situation since 2002. The Titans are especially undervalued here because people are looking past exactly how tough their opening two games were, especially with a 1st time starting quarterback. As long as Detroit doesn’t have field goal protection, I’m taking the Titans in this one.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little.

A very interesting thing has happened with the Buccaneers, one of my underrated teams preseason. They haven’t played well, but they’ve had good results. They beat the Panthers in the opener and were up on the Giants last week in New York before blowing the lead. However, they rank dead last in yards per play differential, which is feel is the best indicator of future success. So why the disparity between their points differential and their yards per play differential?

For one, they’re running a lot more than they’re passing and their opponents are doing the opposite. Opponents have passed 84 times, to 38 runs against them and passes tend to average more per attempt, though it’s less consistent yardage than run plays. The Buccaneers have run 58 times to 52 passes. That’s one of the flaws in yards per play differential. The other flaw is has is level of competition and the Buccaneers haven’t played easy teams. However, they’re also dominating the turnover battle by a differential of +3. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle. They’re also dominating the turnover return yardage battle, 124 to 6, something else they can’t keep relying on. They might actually be overrated this week.

However, I also think the Cowboys are a little overrated, but that’s nothing new. The Cowboys are overrated by the odds makers on a yearly basis because of their name value. They’re one of the most frequently bet teams so the odds makers jack up the odds. As a result of this, they’re 30-37 ATS since 2008 and 13-20 ATS since 2010. However, this week they’re actually not the public’s favorite as the public has a slight lean on Tampa Bay.

I’m really torn on this one. I don’t love either side and I don’t like going with a public dog like Tampa Bay, but they’re not a huge public dog. Besides, the only true trend in play here is the 2nd straight road game as a dog off a loss trend. Teams in their 2nd straight road game as underdogs off a loss are 57-38 ATS since 2008. I’m going with the Buccaneers for a small play.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Dallas Cowboys 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +8 (-105) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Colts are underrated.

One of the reasons they’ve remained underrated and because they’ve played underrated teams. I feel the Bears and Vikings are both underrated teams right now. The Colts, meanwhile, don’t have a ton of talent of anything, but Andrew Luck is the real deal.  After a rough opener against a strong Chicago defense, Luck was incredibly impressive in his 2nd start, passing for 224 yards on 20 of 31, despite minimal help from his supporting cast. Under pressure on 15 of 37 drop backs, he took just 2 sacks, scrambled 4 times for 21 yards, and completed 6 of 9 for a touchdown and of the 3 incompletions, 1 was dropped, and on 1 he was hit as he threw. In fact, if you take non-targets out of the equation and add in drops (accuracy percentage), he would have been 24 of 29. Expect this team to at least win the 6 games Cam Newton did last year, with a 7 or 8 win season being more likely.

Given that, it’s pretty weird that the odds makers think that the Colts and Jaguars are equal (home field advantage is 3 points). The Jaguars figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. Remember when Blaine Gabbert looked like a functional quarterback? That was fun. Against Houston, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4.

Indianapolis doesn’t have nearly the defense that Houston does, but Gabbert still cannot be trusted as a functional quarterback going forward, especially behind an offensive line that could be missing two starters once again. They’ve had the league’s 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency. The one thing that has remained the same over their first 2 games is their horrible defensive play. Starting cornerback Derek Cox is expected back, but that won’t solve all of their problems. Stud linebacker Daryl Smith will also miss again this week. Andrew Luck and company shouldn’t have much problem moving the ball again this week. The Jaguars rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential.

I still feel like there’s a lot of line value with the Colts. They’re not the same crappy team they were last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal and they’re also much better coached. The Jaguars, meanwhile, might be even worse than they were last year because the defense is no longer respectable and because Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, isn’t the same as last year. If Blaine Gabbert can be respectable against a bad defense again like he did in the opener, they could keep this one close, but I don’t really trust him to do that.

Plus, the Colts are trying to avenge a divisional loss of 10 points or fewer, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2010. The Colts are also going into a bye , Teams in general tend to cover heading into a bye, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into one, going 151-126 ATS since 2002. On top of that, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 ATS and SU week 3 since 2008.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)

The Chargers are one of just six 2-0 teams left in the NFL. Have they conquered their early season woes? They certainly look good. They’ve used 7 of their last 8 picks in the first 3 rounds on defensive players and it seems to have paid off while veterans like Quentin Jammer and Shaun Phillips seem to be holding things together for one more year. Meanwhile, on offense, Philip Rivers might be the MVP of the league for the first 2 games, leading this team to a 2-0 record despite not having much to throw with. He’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency and he’s doing it while throwing to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem (just kidding, no one ever throws to Robert Meachem), and one game of Antonio Gates. His running game isn’t helping him much either as none of their backs have really gotten much going in Ryan Mathews’ absence.

The good news for Rivers is that Mathews will be back this week. Mathews is injury prone, but he’s one of the most talented backs in the league and they were planning on using him as an everything back so he should definitely help their offense. Gates is also expected back. The problem is their schedule is getting much harder this week. I don’t fully believe they’ve conquered their early season problems just because they’re 2-0 after beating two crappy teams. They started 4-1 last year beating up on crappy teams before eventually going on a 6 game losing streak once things got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era.

This week, the Falcons come to town and they represent by far their toughest opponent so far. Matt Ryan and this passing offense has been as advertised, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the defense has been okay despite the loss of Brent Grimes for the season.

However, I wasn’t overly impressed with the Falcons’ performance last week on Monday Night Football. I felt like they should have been up 20 given how badly the Broncos started and how much they turned the ball over, but they didn’t capitalize like they should have. They lost the yardage total battle and the yards per play battle and if it wasn’t for those 4 turnovers, they probably would have lost at home by double digits. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle to win games.

As a result of that game, they actually have a yards per play differential at even, +0, and that’s my favorite stat and what I feel is the best indicator of how a team has played and how they will play in the future. For what it’s worth though, the Chargers sit at only +0.3, so it’s not like they’re much better. Neither team’s yards per play differential is as good as their record. On top of that, I don’t really trust the Falcons outside on the road, especially on just 5 days rest coming off Monday Night Football.

I’m really torn on this one. I don’t believe the Chargers have gotten rid of their early season problems and I feel they could be due for a stinker now that they’re playing an actually good opponent. However, I wasn’t that impressed with the Falcons on Monday Night Football at home, where they’re best and now they go on the road on short rest. Besides, the Chargers never blew out a team last year in their strong start against an easy schedule like they did last week.

I’m picking the Chargers because the Falcons are one of the heaviest public underdogs you’ll ever see. Not only do I love betting against the public when the action is heavy in one direction (the public is getting killed on these types of games this year), I love it even more when the publicly backed team is an underdog. The Chargers are getting their due respect against a Falcons team that, like they are, is hasn’t really played as well as their record would suggest. I’m taking the home team for a small play.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

San Diego Chargers 28 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 1 unit

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