2012 NFL Power Rankings

Cincinnati Bengals: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

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Last week: 26 (+1)

Record: 3-5

Once again, Andy Dalton failed to beat a playoff team, something he’s never done in his career and part of the reason I never ranked them above 18, even when they were 3-1. He lost to 8 such teams last year and 3 or 4 of them this year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Denver). His 3 wins this season have come against teams with a combined record of (6-20). In those 12 career games, he is a combined 257 of 451 (57.0%) for 2718 yards (6.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions

The Bengals schedule gets tough ahead as they face teams that could make the playoffs in 6 of their final 8 games (NY Giants, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore), with only Kansas City and Oakland offering easier games. Every year one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. At 3-5 on a 4 game losing streak, with Detroit and New Orleans improving, the Bengals look like the clear favorite to do so.

Studs

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

TE Jermaine Gresham: Caught 6 passes for 108 yards on 8 attempts, 10.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR AJ Green: Caught 7 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 6.1 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

SS Reggie Nelson: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 3 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 4 attempts

WR Brandon Tate: Caught 1 pass for 17 yards on 6 attempts, 0.0 YAC per catch, 3 kickoff returns for 106 yards, 1 punt return for 0 yards

LOLB Vontaze Burfict: 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, allowed 5 catches for 54 yards on 5 attempts

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Tennessee Titans: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 25 (-2)

Record: 3-6

The Titans have won 3 games by a combined 7 points and lost 6 by a combined 133 points, giving them a league worst points differential of -126. After allowing 317 points all of last year, 8th best in the league, they’ve allowed 308 through 9 games this year, by far the worst. However, last week it wasn’t really their defense’s problem. The Bears jumped out to a 28-2 lead thanks to a punt block touchdown, a pick six, and two short touchdown drives off of a fumble recovery and a long punt return. In fact, the Titans’ defense actually scored before the offense did, forcing a safety. The Bears scored 28 points on 54 yards and while the Titans allowed another 22 after that, the game was out of reach at that point and they likely weren’t giving it 100%, which is understandable.

Studs

C Fernando Velasco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 7 attempts

RT David Stewart: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB Zach Brown: 9 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 8 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB Akeem Ayers: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 penalty, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

LE Derrick Morgan: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

WR Kendall Wright: Caught 2 passes for 30 yards on 6 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Jared Cook: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 5 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 5 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

MLB Colin McCarthy: Allowed 3 catches for 68 yards on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

FS Michael Griffin: Allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and 2 touchdowns on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-7

Once again the Browns played a team close and came up short this week. Against Baltimore, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, scoring 5 field goals, which Baltimore just scored 4 times, though they got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The Browns imploded once they got into field goal range thanks to some bad play calling. They also had a touchdown wiped off the board by a penalty.

They’ve been competitive in every game. They led the Giants 14-0 early before losing 41-27. All of the rest of their games have been decided by 10 points or less and in several games they were one play away from winning. Josh Gordon dropped an easy touchdown in a 4 point loss to the Colts and Greg Little did the same in a 7 point loss to the Ravens in their first meeting.

They have some nice pieces, but you have to wonder if Head Coach Pat Shurmur will make it to next season with a new ownership and front office coming in. I still think they’re not a team to be taken lightly going forward, much like the Dolphins last season, who started 0-7, but finished 6-3. Their schedule gives them two easy home games against Washington and Kansas City and a winnable road game in Oakland in the 2nd part of their schedule after their bye.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LG John Greco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

C Alex Mack: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 51 yards on 11 attempts

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Kaluka Maiava: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 penalty

SS TJ Ward: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 penalty

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

QB Brandon Weeden: 20 of 37 for 176 yards and 2 interceptions, 4 throw aways, 2 drops, 61.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 3 of 10, 2 interceptions, 3 throw aways, 1 drop)

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 105 yards (55 after contact) on 25 carries, 6 broken tackles, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, caught 6 passes for 31 yards on 8 attempts, 1 drop

FB Alex Smith: Caught 3 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 2 passes for 38 yards on 3 attempts, 1.5 YAC per catch, 2 penalties

TE Jordan Cameron: Didn’t catch a pass on 2 attempts on 12 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

CB Joe Haden: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 penalty

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Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 2-6

Last week I mentioned that Cam Newton is 1-10 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less. Well, the good news is that he’s 6-7 in his other 13 games. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. If that were the case in his 11 close games, he’d have around a .500 career record, instead of being 7-17, which wouldn’t be bad considering that they don’t have a great supporting cast. Meanwhile, as disappointing as his 2012 has been, they have the exact same record through 8 games as they did last year, when Newton was the next big thing.

This year, he has just one loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night, when it’s understandable for a young quarterback to have a bad game. They have just a -31 points differential this year and while they rank 29th in rate of sustaining drives differential, they are 3rd in yards per play differential. They’re an underrated team who could continue to surprise people like they did to Washington last week. For the record, last year I thought Newton was overrated and this offseason he was given too high of expectations, but now that he hasn’t met them, people have soured on him and he’s become underrated.

Studs

RT Byron Bell: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 37 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LE Charles Johnson: 3 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

RE Greg Hardy: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 6 stops, 3 missed tackles

CB Josh Thomas: Allowed 1 catch for -9 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Captain Munnerlyn: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 6 catches for 31 yards on 9 attempts

Duds

RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 2 pressures on 29 pass block snaps

WR Louis Murphy: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps

RE Frank Alexander: Didn’t record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

DT Dwan Edwards: 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

MLB Luke Kuechly: Allowed 6 catches for 67 yards on 8 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 5 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Thomas Davis: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 46 yards on 5 attempts

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Oakland Raiders: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 3-5

Oakland/Tampa Bay was a crazy game for statistics. Everyone knows about Doug Martin’s 272 total yards and 4 total touchdowns, which was the 4th highest single game fantasy football total in history. However, we also had Carson Palmer throw for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns in a losing effort for just the 7th time in NFL history. Meanwhile, because of injuries to running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson, the Raiders ran just 11 times to 62 passes, just the 2nd time in NFL history a team ran 50+ fewer times than they passes. Fullback Marcel Reece took over as the running back after McFadden and Goodson got hurt, but did not get a single carry. He did, however, lead the team with 8 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.

Studs

LG Cooper Carlisle: Didn’t allow a pressure on 68 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

C Stefen Wisniewski: Didn’t allow a pressure on 68 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

FB Marcel Reece: Caught 8 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts

LE Lamarr Houston: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Andre Carter: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 12 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 68 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 5 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

LOLB Miles Burris: Allowed 5 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 4 missed tackles, 2 quarterback hurries on 9 blitzes

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

DT Richard Seymour: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-7

I still like the Chiefs more than the Jaguars as long as Matt Cassel is their quarterback. As long as his turnover rate regresses somewhat to the mean going forward, he’s their best option at quarterback. If not for two defensive touchdowns, the Chiefs could have easily hung with and beaten the Chargers. I suspect with better turnover luck going forward, they will have a couple chances to eke out some victories.

Right now they’re at -20 in turnovers on the year. Even if they were to tie the NFL record of -30, that would still mean a twofold improvement in their turnover margin in the 2nd half of the season. For the record, the record since the merger is -28. Turnovers aside, they rank 31st in yards per play differential and 24th in rate of sustaining drives differential. I would pick them to beat the Jaguars, who are dead last in both, if they played.

Speaking of those two terrible teams, we have to watch them in back to back weeks on Thursday Night Football. I hate this new “everyone gets a primetime game” thing. We shouldn’t have to watch crappy games in primetime just to be fair to everyone. Besides, if you’re not a good team, why would you even want to be on TV for millions to see?

Studs

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 16 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 6 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

LG Ross Hochstein: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Travis Daniels: Allowed 4 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

MLB Jovan Belcher: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 attempt

RE Ropati Pitoitua: Did not record a pressure on 6 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-7

The Jaguars lost at home by 17 to the Lions last week and some people are crediting the Jaguars’ trade of Mike Thomas to the Lions right before the game as part of the reason. The move was actually a good one for the Jaguars because they were able to get rid of his contract and get something in return for a guy who was no better than their 4th receiver at this point, but the timing was at best peculiar and at worst dumb. Thomas could have given the Lions some of the Jaguars offensive secrets like Blaine Gabbert sucks and the offense is nothing without Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert sucks. That information is clearly why they were able to win.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

P Bryan Anger: 4 punts for 202 yards, 3 inside 20, no returns, 50.5 net yards per punt

Duds

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Derek Cox: Allowed 8 catches for 121 yards on 9 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 37 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-0

I’m moving the Falcons into the #1 spot for the first time all season, but I’m still not sold. 4 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve been very reliant on winning the turnover margin, which is inconsistent on a week to week basis. They rank just 19th in yards per play differential and 4th in rate of sustaining drives differential. And they haven’t really played anyone of note, except Denver, and that was not the same Broncos team they are now. The Falcons could easily lose at home to the Cowboys this week.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 22 of 29 for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 102.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 1 of 3, 1 throw away)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 60 yards (53 after contact) on 8 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 5 passes for 20 yards on 5 attempts

LG Justin Blalock: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 15.8 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and a deflection on 5 attempts

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 0 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 58 yards (47 after contact) on 24 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 5 attempts

CB Asante Samuel: 4 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 45 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

DT Jonathan Babineaux: Did not record a pressure on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

DT Peria Jerry: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Chicago Bears: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 6-1

I’m moving the Bears out of the #1 spot barely this week because I wasn’t impressed with their near home loss to the Panthers and because the Falcons looked good against the Eagles. However, the Falcons still haven’t really played anyone that’s any good and they almost lost at home to the Raiders. The Bears’ one loss was on Thursday Night and it’s tough to put a lot of stock into a fluky bad performance on short rest. Excluding that loss, Jay Cutler has won 11 straight games.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 28 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 4 dropped passes, 102.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 35 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 6)

DT Henry Melton: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 5 stops

DT Nate Collins: 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

C Roberto Garza: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 5 attempts

WR Devin Hester: Caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 2 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Stephen Paea: 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Nick Roach: 1 solo tackle, allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 69 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 batted pass

ROLB Lance Briggs: 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts

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