2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews

St. Louis Rams Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Rams

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

8/27/12: I was a little bit lower on Bradford than I should have been. He’s only a QB2, but I’m moving him up slightly.

Tough to get behind Bradford as anything more than a QB2 because of his lack of offensive supporting cast. He could improve on the 3512 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions he had in 2010, but at the same time, I don’t expect them to pass 590 times again, like they did in 2010. And, of course, he might not last the season behind an offensive line that led the league in sacks in 2011. They got a new center, which helps, but that’s just a center. They also inexplicably didn’t address the line until the 5th round in the draft.

Projection: 3720 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (205 pts standard/245 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

8/31/12: Isaiah Pead has failed to lock down the #2 back job behind Steven Jackson. He will split the role with follow rookie Daryl Richardson. This is good and bad news for Jackson’s fantasy stock. The good news is that there’s no immediate threat to his workload and he should see the type of carries he’s used to so long as he’s healthy and running well. The bad news is that there’s no obvious handcuff should he get hurt so you’re taking a big risk with Jackson that he doesn’t get hurt or decline. History suggests he might have one more good year in him so he’s worth that risk in a weak running back class outside of the top-10 backs.

Like Michael Turner, Jackson will be getting a reduced workload this season, but Jackson’s reduced workload is more well known after the Rams spent a 2nd round pick on a running back, Isaiah Pead. Pead will be able to do what Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood couldn’t last season, reduce Jackson’s workload. He’s also 29 in July and has 2138 career carries and stagnated fantasy wise by the offense he’s on. He’s only scored 10+ touchdowns once in his 8 year career.

Projection: 240 carries 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 40 catches 330 receiving yards (176 pts standard/216 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (St. Louis)

8/13/12: If any of St. Louis’ wideouts are going to be fantasy relevant this season, it’s probably going to be Smith. Smith seems to be healthy off of essentially 2 lost years with injuries. He’s working with the 1st team, having a strong camp, and was Bradford’s favorite weapon in their 1st preseason game. He probably will never be his 100 catch self again, like he was in 2009 before injury, but he’s got the most value of any of St. Louis’ receivers. He’s worth a late round pick.

Projection: 63 catches 780 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (108 pts standard/171 pts PPR)

WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

Bradford showed great chemistry with Amendola in the slot as a rookie in 2010 as he caught 85 passes for 689 yards and 3 touchdowns. Even after a major injury last year, he should still have similar numbers in 2012.

Projection: 80 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard/174 pts PPR)

TE Lance Kendricks (St. Louis)

Lance Kendricks was their 2nd round pick in 2011. He had a disappointing rookie year, but in his 2nd year in the league, he could definitely have a better year. Sam Bradford probably won’t miss as many games as he did last year and with little to no proven outside receivers, he could target the talented Kendricks early and often. There’s some upside here.

Projection: 45 catches 570 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (87 pts standard/132 PPR)

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Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Cardinals

QB John Skelton (Arizona)

8/20/12: The Cardinals have not named a starting quarterback yet, but Skelton will start and play into the 3rd quarter this week, which means he’ll get all the 1st team reps in the most important Preseason game of the year. Barring a meltdown, he’ll be the starting quarterback. In 11 career starts, he’s thrown for 2248 yards, 10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, while rushing for 153 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3270 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 223 rushing yards. He was pulled in two of those games and has thrown for 2057 yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, while rushing for 144 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3657 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while rushing for 256 yards. He’s got a good receiving corps, but there’s no guarantee he won’t be benched midseason or anything like that. You can do better in a QB2.

Projection: 3500 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (196 pts standard/226 pts in 6 pts TD leagues)

RB Chris Wells (Arizona)

7/1/12: Chris Wells is still uncertain for Training Camp after giving what was initially called “minor” surgery on his knee earlier this offseason. Meanwhile, Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt challenged him publicly to “bust his tail” over the next few weeks because other running backs have looked good in his absence. They spent a 2nd round pick on Ryan Williams in 2011 and now that he has returned from injury, they plan to use him. The more time Wells misses, the better it is for Williams and the worse it is for Wells.

Chris Wells had a great season last year, but Ryan Williams is returning from injury. They used a 2nd round pick on him in 2011, so they’ll definitely use him. He’ll cut into Wells’ carries a lot more than Alfonso Smith, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Chester Taylor did last season. He won’t approach the career high 245 carries he had last season, especially after an offseason surgery of his own on his knee, one he is not yet practicing because of.

Projection: 170 carries 710 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 9 catches 60 receiving yards (119 pts standard/128 pts PPR)

RB Ryan Williams (Arizona)

7/1/12: With Wells moving down, Williams moves up. Wells is hardly the picture of durability so Williams is not only a nice compliment, but will be a potential fantasy breakout candidate if Wells suffers a major injury. There’s upside here.

Williams will probably be a pure backup after the season that Chris Wells had last year, but he’ll see some carries and it’s not like Wells isn’t an injury risk. They drafted Williams in the 2nd round for a reason. They’ll use him.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 32 catches 240 receiving yards (117 pts standard/149 pts PPR)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

Larry Fitzgerald had 80 catches for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns last year with terrible quarterback play. I can’t guarantee his quarterback play will be any better, but Michael Floyd drawing away the bracket coverage opposite him will help him.

Projection: 83 catches 1440 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (198 pts standard/281 pts PPR)

WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

7/26/12: The 13th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Floyd is reportedly struggling with his work ethic and will open Training Camp as the Cardinals’ 4th receiver and may even start the season 4th on the depth chart. He could work his way up the depth chart during the season, but his fantasy value just went from minimal to none.

There’s not a ton of value in Arizona’s #2 receiver, even one as talented as Floyd, but Early Doucet had 54 catches for 689 yards and 5 touchdowns and Andre Roberts had 51 catches for 586 yards and 2 touchdowns last year. Floyd should at least do better than that, even as a rookie.

47 catches 520 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (76 pts standard/123 pts PPR)

TE Rob Housler (Arizona)

8/20/12: You can read more about Housler here.

Projection: 48 catches 600 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (84 pts standard/132 pts PPR)

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Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

8/27/12: Wilson has some intrigue as QB2 with upside because of his rushing ability. However, considering the history of non-1st round pick rookie quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks in general, I don’t really like his upside. Wilson will become just the 5th non-1st round pick quarterback to get his team’s week 1 start since 1994. Other than Andy Dalton last year, they’ve all thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns.

He probably won’t throw for a high YPA (even Dalton last year averaged just 6.6 YPA) and the Seahawks ran one of the most conservative offenses in the league last year, passing just 509 times.With a rookie quarterback under center, they’ll only get more conservative, especially since with a mobile, run happy quarterback like Wilson.

As a passer, I don’t like his chances to even exceed the 3091 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions that Tarvaris Jackson threw for last season. He might if he plays all 16 games, but Pete Carroll loves constant competition at positions and likely wouldn’t hesitate to pull Wilson for Flynn, now one of the league’s most expensive backups, if he struggles.

Projection: 2930 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard/217 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

8/27/12: Wilson under center will be a good thing for Lynch. The Seahawks will become even more conservative and run more, while Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up on the ground for Lynch. I still don’t like Lynch to match his 2011 production because he’s an injury prone, one hit wonder, known for slacking off and probably will now that he’s gotten paid, but I’m moving him up.

8/13/12:  It sounds like Lynch won’t be suspended, at least in 2012, as Roger Goodell wants to wait until the result of his DUI case before assigning any penalty. That likely means that any suspension would take place in 2013, if ever. I still don’t like him this year, as a one year wonder, behind a poor offensive line, after getting a new contract, but I’m bumping him back up to my original projection for him.

7/26/12: Lynch was arrested again. He’s already been suspended for 3 games in the past so I expect some sort of 2-4 game suspension again for him. He also runs behind a poor offensive line (which is why he averaged just 4.2 YPC last year) and he was pretty mediocre in 2009-2010. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Lynch is another back I’m staying away from. He’s only managed more than 202 carries once in the last 3 years and that was last year. He’s been an underachiever most of his career and I expect that to be the case next year now that he’s gotten a new contract. He’s also often injured because of his running style.

Projection: 250 carries 1100 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 20 catches 170 receiving yards (187 pts standard/207 pts PPR)

RB Robert Turbin (Seattle)

8/27/12: Turbin has had a great preseason and while he’ll be Lynch’s primary backup, Lynch could easily miss a couple games with injury and/or struggle and cede a few more carries to Turbin than a true feature back would. On top of that, the Seahawks will run more with Russell Wilson under center and Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up for him on the ground.

8/13/12: Moving Turbin back down as his value is tied to Marshawn Lynch’s. He’s still a name to know because Lynch will probably underachieve and/or get hurt, but he’s not really draftable.

7/26/12: In Marshawn Lynch’s absence, Robert Turbin will be the lead back because Leon Washington is just a change of pace, 3rd down back, and return man. He should be a RB3 or so for a few games to start the season and then from there, you never know. This situation reminds me of 2009 when Lynch was suspended.

A then unknown Fred Jackson had 402 yards from scrimmage in the first 3 games and performed so well that he got carries the rest of the season, finishing the year with 1433 yards from scrimmage. He was also a valuable trade chip after week 3 to unaware fantasy owners. He’s definitely worth a late round pick. He’s got plenty of upside.

If Lynch misses any time, Turbin will be the lead back. He’ll also probably handle 3rd down duties immediately. I don’t know if I’d draft him, but he’s a name to know.

Projection: 130 carries 600 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (106 pts standard/126 pts PPR)

WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

8/27/12: Terrell Owens has been cut. Sidney Rice has been cleared for contact and will likely start week 1. Remember, he’s only exceeded 32 catches for 484 yards once in his 5 year career, but he’s incredibly talented when healthy and caught 82 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009. He’s definitely worth a late round flier.

8/7/12: Sidney Rice is not expected to be cleared to be cleared for contact for most of the Preseason. It’s mostly precautionary and he should be out there week 1, but it’s definitely not a good sign. Neither is the fact that they’ve signed Antonio Bryant (eventually cut 10 days later), Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens in the last couple weeks. He’s still got upside if he can stay healthy and he’s worth a late round flier, but his current ADP in the 9th round is too high. He’s had 3 concussions and 2 shoulder surgeries in the last calendar year. He’s almost definitely going to be a fantasy dud this season.

In 5 years in the league, Rice has only surpassed 32 catches for 484 yards once. Of course, he had 83 catches for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns that year, but he’s still the definition of boom or bust. He’s had 2 shoulder surgeries and 3 concussions in the last calendar year, but he should be out there week 1. He’s still the Seahawks’ #1 receiver and there’s definitely upside with him with a new quarterback, but there’s also a clear downside.

Projection: 50 catches 750 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (105 pts standard/155 pts PPR)

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

8/27/12: I’m moving Baldwin down slightly because Rice is healthy and because I don’t like the quarterback and because Baldwin is nursing his own injury right now, though he’s expected to play week 1. Baldwin led the team in receiving last year, but only out of necessity and was hardly a fantasy stud doing it. On what figures to be a mediocre passing offense, Rice is really the only receiver worth owning and only for his upside as a late round flier.

8/7/12: Sidney Rice is a major injury risk, Braylon Edwards is no sure thing, and Terrell Owens is done. Doug Baldwin will probably lead the team in receiving again. In his 2nd year in the league, he could definitely improve on his 51 catches for 777 yards and 4 touchdowns from last season, especially if Matt Flynn proves to be an upgrade at quarterback.

Baldwin had 51 catches for 788 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie and led the team in receiving. However, that was pretty much out of necessity. He might do that again this year, but then again, they could get more out of Sidney Rice.

Projection: 51 catches 710 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (95 pts standard/146 pts PPR)

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San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, 49ers

QB Alex Smith (San Francisco)

Smith could improve on the 17 touchdowns and 3144 yards he had in 2011 as the 49ers have gotten him 3 new receivers, Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkins, and Randy Moss. However, they added another running back through the draft too so they will still be a run heavy team. I also don’t see his 5 interceptions as replicable.

Projection: 3200 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (196 pts standard/232 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

Jim Harbaugh said their selection of LaMichael James wasn’t an indictment on Gore’s ability, but I don’t think there’s any way the addition of James, as well as Brandon Jacobs, doesn’t cut into Gore’s carries as he heads into his age 29 season. He probably has another 2 good years as the lead back, but he won’t see the 282 carries he had last year, even if he does stay healthy for 16 games for just the 3rd time in his 8 year career.

Projection: 220 carries 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 35 catches 280 receiving yards (171 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco)

Crabtree is still San Francisco’s #1 wide receiver, but only by default. He’ll have more competition for balls from Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and AJ Jenkins, as well as Vernon Davis, who was very dominant down the stretch last season. He probably won’t even reach the 72 catches for 874 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 60 catches 810 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (105 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

WR Mario Manningham (San Francisco)

Manningham had 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2010 as a starter for the New York Giants, but the 49ers’ passing offense isn’t nearly as good. He’ll be borderline fantasy irrelevant this season.

Projection: 50 catches 620 receiving yards 3 receiving touchdowns (80 pts standard/130 pts PPR)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

In Davis’ last 5 games, including playoffs, he had 28 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s insane. Remember, he had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 and 56 catches for 914 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, before totaling just 67 catches for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. He’s still San Francisco’s #1 receiver. Buy low while you still can.

Projection: 74 catches 920 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/208 pts PPR)

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Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Panthers

QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

7/26/12: One of the things I realized while writing my season preview for the Panthers is that a predictable decrease in rushing touchdowns for Newton would led to not only Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams rushing for more touchdowns, but also Newton throwing for more touchdowns, even if he does have a predictable sophomore slump.

Cam Newton could be overdrafted based on what he did last year. He’s still a strong QB1, but I think there’s a good distance between him and the 4 quarterbacks above him on this list. Anyone who expects him to rush for 14 touchdowns again doesn’t understand football. The all time leader in CAREER rushing touchdowns by a quarterback is Steve Young, who had 43. Young never had more than 7 in any single season. That number is a fluke if I’ve ever seen one. He’ll probably run less overall to preserve his health long term. He could also see his passing numbers decrease slightly with Steve Smith aging and the possibility of a sophomore slump.

Projection: 3920 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 600 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns (298 pts standard/342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put his original projections back.

8/27/12: Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle. It’s not a huge deal and he probably won’t miss more than a week or two, but he’s currently in a race to start week 1, so I’m moving him down slightly.

Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 150 carries 750 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 310 receiving yards (154 pts standard/191 pts PPR)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put Williams’ original projections back as well.

8/27/12: With Stewart getting hurt, even a minor injury, Williams gets the opportunity to be a pure feature back on one of the best running games in the league for a week or two. I’m moving him up slightly.

Copy and paste: Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 160 carries 800 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (144 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith had a major bounce back year in 2011 with 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he’s now 33. Even Hall of Fame receivers tend to start declining majorly around 33-35 so he’s definitely a risk early in drafts, as good of chemistry as he has with Cam Newton.

Projection: 65 catches 1040 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (140 pts standard/205 pts PPR)

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

8/27/12: Brandon LaFell is the clear starter for the Panthers opposite Legedu Naanee gone and David Gettis still hurt. In 6 starts last year, LaFell caught 15 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown, good for 40 catches for 715 yards and 3 touchdowns over 3 games. On top of that, if he had the 76 targets Naanee had last year and maintained his rates, he would have caught 49 passes for 831 yards and 4 touchdowns. Now he’s the clear starter opposite an aging wide receiver. There is upside here.

LaFell is heading into his 3rd year, a year when receivers tend to have a breakout year. LaFell is not overly talented so I don’t see a huge year for him, but he should pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack and have a career best season. He might be worth a look late in fantasy drafts.

Projection: 50 catches 850 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (115 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

8/27/12: The Panthers coaching staff talked up Greg Olsen. Jeremy Shockey is gone and Cam Newton loves throwing to his tight ends. He targeted Olsen and Shockey a combined 152 times last season and could target them even more this season with Steve Smith aging on the outside. Mike Tolbert and Gary Barnridge will take some of those targets, but Olsen could see up to 100 targets this year and have a very solid year. He could also be Newton’s primary target around the goal line as Olsen and Shockey combined for 9 touchdowns last year. Newton also figures to throw more around the goal line this year because his 14 rushing touchdowns is going to be unrepeatable.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Projection: 55 catches 700 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

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Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Falcons

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

8/27/12: I was worried about how Matt Ryan would do in the Falcons’ new offense because it didn’t seem to fit his skill set. I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Ryan has completed 45 of 60 (75.0%) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Only Russell Wilson has a higher QB rating than him. He’s got plenty of upside in the Falcons’ new explosive offense and plenty of weapons around him. He looks ready for a career year.

7/26/12: Again, nothing new to report here, but when I was doing Atlanta’s season preview, I got a better feel for the type of season we can expect from Ryan this year. He’ll be asked to throw downfield for often and throw more often overall, which should lead to a career high in yards, but also to a career high in interceptions and a career low in completion percentage. Ryan is one of the least accurate deep throwers in the NFL over his career, completing just 31.9% of his passes that go 20+ yards in the air in his career, including 25% last year. This is opposed to 64.4% on the rest of his throws.

Matt Ryan is nothing, but consistent. And boring. But, you can call it consistent. In 2010, he had 3705 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. In 2011, 4177 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He should have a similar season this year, only slightly better as I’m projecting a breakout season from Julio Jones.

Projection: 4430 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdowns (291 pts standard/353 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Michael Turner (Atlanta)

There was some talk about the Falcons cutting or trading Turner, who turned 30 this offseason. Instead, they’ll just be reducing his workload, which Mike Smith himself said. The coaching staff is really high on Jacquizz Rodgers, who figures to see more of the field in his 2nd year. Meanwhile, Turner is on the wrong side of 30 and has 300+ carries in 3 of his last 4 seasons. I’ll let someone else overdraft him.

Projection: 200 carries 900 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 12 catches 100 receiving yards (160 pts standard/172 pts PPR)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

Michael Turner’s loss is Jacquizz Rodgers’ gain. The coaching staff loves him and will get him involved as more than just a passing down back this season. He’ll be a nice change of pace back to Turner and see a good amount of carries. He’ll also have a lot of catches. Given Turner’s age and mileage, there’s nothing but upside with Rodgers.

Projection: 130 carries 560 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 40 catches 310 receiving yards (111 pts standard/151 pts PPR)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

8/13/12: I don’t like to overreact to preseason games, but Julio Jones is insane. He caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in his 1st preseason game in only one quarter of play. I had him “conservatively” ranked as my #5 wide receiver, but it appears that was even too low for him. Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are not out of reach for him.

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his last 5 games, when he finally looked healthy, he had 24 catches for 461 yards and 6 touchdowns. With a full offseason, Jones looks poised for a breakout season now that’s healthy.

Projection: 76 catches 1280 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (200 pts standard/276 pts PPR)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

8/13/12: Any positive for Jones has to be a negative for White, who is heading into his age 31 season and will be a smaller part of the offense last year. Leading the league in targets last year, White is almost purely a volume receiver at this point in his career and he should see a much smaller volume of targets go his way as long as Julio is playing like this.

Julio Jones’ gain will be Roddy White’s loss this season. White is 31 in November and coming off a season in which he led the league in drops. He also led the league in targets, a number that should go down this season with Julio Jones’ emergence. He’ll have to be more efficient to match his numbers from 2011 and I don’t think he will be.

Projection: 84 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/226 pts PPR)

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez inexplicably had an amazing season at the age of 35 last season with 80 catches for 875 yards and 7 touchdowns despite looking done the year before. However, there’s only downside with him now. He’s 36 and less than 2 years removed from 70 catches for 656 yards and 6 touchdowns. I’d stay away.

Projection: 65 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/168 pts PPR)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Buccaneers

QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

Josh Freeman was pretty bad in 2011, throwing 22 interceptions to 16 touchdowns and only 3592 yards. However, he’s not even 2 years removed from throwing for 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 2010, with 3451 yards passing. He also has a new #1 wide receiver in Vincent Jackson, two upgrades on the offensive line with Carl Nicks coming in and pushing Jeremy Zuttah to center, a new first round running back, Doug Martin, to take the load off of him, and a new coach who will instill more discipline in this team than Raheem Morris did last year. This will have a particularly positive effect on both LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, who were out of shape last year, which will help Josh Freeman. I basically averaged his 2010 and 2011 together to get his projection. There’s definitely upside to be had here with him as your QB2.

Projection: 3640 yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 270 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (240 pts standard/282 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

8/27/12: Doug Martin has not only won the 3rd down job, but he’ll probably get the bulk of the 1st and 2nd down work too. Blount is still a valuable handcuff because of the history of rookie running backs in the NFL (1st round backs have averaged 165 carries per year as rookies since 2007) and because the Buccaneers will run a lot, but Martin is moving up.

Doug Martin will be the lead back over LeGarrette Blount, but rookie running backs haven’t had a ton of success in the past and Blount, however useless he is on 3rd down, is still a great runner on 1st and 2nd down and could see a fairly even split with Martin in Martin’s rookie season on downs 1 and 2, especially if Blount shows up in shape this season. He wasn’t last year, but a new coaching staff and a new back to compete with could very well change that.

Projection: 240 carries 1060 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 300 receiving yards (184 pts standard/219 pts PPR)

RB LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay)

8/27/12: Blount will still get carries on a conservative offense, especially around the goal line, but he’s the clear backup to Doug Martin.

Everyone is assuming that the selection of Doug Martin by the Buccaneers will be doom for LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay. However, you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter.

Tampa Bay is still planning on running the ball a ton this year and rookie running backs tend to disappoint so Blount should still get a good amount of carries. He’ll actually be motivated this year with a new coaching staff and a 1st round running back to compete with. However useless he is on passing downs, he’s still a good runner when he wants to be and he could get the goal line carries. There’s some buy low upside with him given where he is being drafted.

Projection: 150 carries 670 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 8 catches 60 receiving yards (109 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Vincent Jackson only once caught more than 60 balls in a season and has a career high of 68 and that was with Philip Rivers, a top-6 quarterback or so. Now he goes to Tampa Bay, has to learn a new system with new teammates, with a big wad of guaranteed money that he’s so desperately wanted for years (enough to hold out into the 2010 season), and an inferior quarterback. Receivers almost never do well after switching teams and I don’t expect anything different for Jackson. I might be overreacting and overanalyzing, but given where he is being drafted on average, I’ll let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 57 catches 860 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (128 pts standard/185 pts PPR)

WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

8/20/12: Mike Williams is having a strong Training Camp and is holding off Preston Parker for the starting job. Not only that, he’s been Josh Freeman’s favorite target in the Preseason, as he’s struggled to develop chemistry with new wide receiver Vincent Jackson. If Williams is back in shape this season, he could definitely lead the team in receiving because he has the familiarity advantage with Freeman. Remember, he caught 65 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010.

7/1/12: Mike Williams already got knocked down the depth chart one spot with the addition of Vincent Jackson this offseason and now he might be knocked out of the starting lineup entirely. Preston Parker is impressing in practice and Williams is not meshing with the new coaching staff. If Parker starts, Williams would play outside on 3-wide receiver sets with Parker moving inside and have minimal fantasy value.

Mike Williams caught 65 passes for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but had 65 catches for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010. He was out of shape last year, but with a new coaching staff coming in, that should change. He also has Vincent Jackson opposite him to draw away double teams and his quarterback should have a bounce back year. There’s buy low potential here.

Projection: 61 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

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New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Saints

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Drew Brees was insane last season with 5476 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He won’t be that good again for 3 reasons. One, no one does that. Two, he lost one of his starting receivers, Robert Meachem. Three, he lost his Head Coach. He should see his YPA go down, as well as his TD:INT ratio, but the Saints have thrown the ball 1315 times in the last 2 years so Brees has a chance to get 5000 yards again. They didn’t make an outside hire for interim head coach so the offensive philosophy will remain the same.

Projection: 4930 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (325 pts standard/401 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

I have Darren Sproles rated lower than most places. The reason behind this is that he gets so few carries, he needs to average a very high YPC and catch a ton of passes to be fantasy relevant. He did that last year, averaging 6.9 YPC and catching 86 passes for 710 yards last season. However, those were both clear career highs and probably not replicable. Also, 7 of his 9 touchdowns were receiving last year. 7 receiving touchdowns for a running back is also unheard of. I don’t see that as replicable either. He should still come close to all 3 of those numbers in an explosive offense and a role he fits in perfectly.

Projection: 80 carries 450 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 70 catches 600 receiving yards (147 pts standard/217 pts PPR)

RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

8/7/12: Mark Ingram is healthy and the Saints reportedly want him to have 200 touches or more this season. He was on pace for 213 as a rookie in 10 games, missing 6 with injury. There’s definitely upside with him potentially having a breakout year in 2012. He’ll also get the goal line carries, which there figure to be plenty of in New Orleans.

I’m not expecting the breakout season for Mark Ingram that many are. For one, he just had another knee surgery. He’s not the most durable player. Two, the Saints have 2 other talented backs, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, to take carries from him. Finally, no Saints’ running back has surpassed 176 carries since 2006. Sean Payton loves to use multiple backs and he has multiple talented backs once again this season. I know Payton isn’t the coach, but their two interim coaches are both former Payton assistants. The offensive philosophy will likely be the same. Besides, I’m sure Sean Payton will find some way to bend the rules or break them without getting caught and have some influence on this team.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 25 catches 170 receiving yards (142 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

8/7/12: Mark Ingram being healthy is bad news for Pierre Thomas. There’s not enough room for Ingram, Sproles, and Thomas to all have fantasy value. He’s a pure handcuff to Ingram.

Pierre Thomas is the 3rd running back in New Orleans again. Like last year, there’s no point in owning him unless there’s an injury. He’ll get 100 or so carries (110 last year) and catch a good amount of passes (a career high 50 last year), but not enough to make much of a mark in fantasy.

Projection: 90 carries 410 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 30 catches 230 receiving yards (88 pts standard/118 pts PPR)

WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

He gets a rep for being injury prone, but he’s only had less than 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns once in his 6 year career so there’s minimal downside for him. He remains the top wide receiver on one of the best passing offenses in the league. In 14 games last year, he had 80 catches for 1143 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. He’s only played 16 games twice, but there’s potential for improvement on last year’s numbers.

Projection: 83 catches 1190 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (173 pts standard/256 pts PPR)

WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

Moore is another player with an injury history, but he had 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns in 16 games in 2008 and 66 catches for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns in 16 games in 2010. Last year, he had 52 catches for 657 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. With Robert Meachem gone, there’s definitely room for improvement on those numbers, especially if he stays healthy the whole season.

Projection: 63 catches 750 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (123 pts standard/186 pts PPR)

WR Devery Henderson (New Orleans)

Henderson will step into the starting lineup for Robert Meachem. The problem is he’s not really that talented. He had 32 catches for 503 yards and 2 touchdowns as the 4th receiver and should get close to the 40 catches for 620 yards and 6 touchdowns Meachem had last year, but there’s not a ton of upside here unless Colston gets hurt. Henderson could even see rookie 4th rounder Nick Toon challenge for his job late in the season.

Projection: 42 catches 630 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (93 pts standard/135 pts PPR)

TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham caught 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. He probably will have less this season as Brees can’t possibly be as good as last year, and also because of the situation at Head Coach. However, I still like him over Rob Gronkowski because his team didn’t add a ton of receiving options through free agency.

Projection: 88 catches 1180 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (184 pts standard/272 pts PPR)

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Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Vikings

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Christian Ponder should start 16 games this year. Unlike last year, he’s the week 1 starter and unlike last year, he has a capable blindside protector so he’s less likely to miss time with injury. As a team, the Vikings passed 510 times last year. That seems about right for Ponder, who should improve upon his 6.4 YPA from last year as he goes into his 2nd season.

He’ll also have better protection, which will allow him to throw downfield better. 6.8 YPA over 510 throws is 3468 yards. The Vikings as a team threw for 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions last year (13:13 for Ponder). That sounds about right for Ponder in 2012. He also adds value as a runner as well. He’s a QB2 with upside.

Projection: 3470 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 250 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (217 pts standard/257 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

7/1/12: The good news is that Peterson will probably be back for week 1. The bad news is that he may be Toby Gerhart’s backup when that happens, in an effort to ease him back in. I wouldn’t take him in the first 2 rounds, despite his upside, and if I did take him, I would make sure to grab Gerhart as a handcuff.

Adrian Peterson tore his ACL late last season, but he’s making a remarkable recovery and could play week 1. He put himself at 50/50 for Training Camp and it’s definitely a situation to monitor because of how good Peterson is when healthy. It wouldn’t be unheard of for Peterson to be back week 1. Wes Welker did the same in 2010 with a shorter recovery period. However, even if he plays all 16 games, I expect a career worst season for Peterson, as was the case with Welker in 2010. The Vikings won’t want to overwork him and will give some carries to Toby Gerhart, a former 2nd round pick. He could also average a career low YPC.

Projection: 200 carries 840 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 21 catches 160 receiving yards (148 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

RB Toby Gerhart (Minnesota)

7/1/12: Gerhart could be the Vikings’ lead back even if Peterson is healthy to start the season. I don’t know how long that would last, but he’s a capable back and the definition as a mid round sleeper at his current ADP in the 9th round. He’s a value handcuff for Peterson owners as well.

Any loss of carries by Adrian Peterson this season will be Gerhart’s gain and he’ll start and get the majority of the carries in any games Peterson misses this season because they don’t have another back. He rushed for 431 yards and 1 touchdown on 85 carries in 5 starts last season. The upside is there late and he’s an incredibly valuable handcuff for Adrian Peterson owners.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 28 catches 220 receiving yards (121 pts standard/149 pts PPR)

WR Percy Harvin (Minnesota)

7/1/12: Harvin expressed frustration with his playing time in 2011 and could get more as a result. Harvin was actually 2nd on his own team in snaps played at receiver last year behind the mediocre Devin Aromashodu. Harvin has real fantasy value early in drafts. He was the #8 scoring fantasy football receiver last year and in his last 11 games, he had 69 catches for 784 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 100 catches for 1140 yards and 9 touchdowns over 9 games.

He could even exceed those numbers if he plays more and with Christian Ponder playing his 1st full season as a starter. On top of that, he rushed for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns on 52 carries. He could easily be a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver this year. He’s currently the 19th receiver off the board based on average draft position because people don’t pay attention to his rushing ability. If he even matches what he did last year, he’s a steal at his current ADP and there’s definitely upside.

Percy Harvin could have a career best season in 2012 with improved quarterback play, a better offensive line to protect the quarterback, and still very little competition for targets from other receivers. He’s a really underrated right now. He rushed for 345 yards and 2 scores last year, which helped make him the #8 fantasy receiver. He could easily improve on that this season, but he goes in the 4th or 5th round (19th receiver) on average because people overlook his rushing ability.

Projection: 100 catches 1170 receiving yards 45 carries 250 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns (196 pts standard/296 pts PPR)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

8/7/12: Kyle Rudolph is a 2nd year tight end having a very strong Training Camp. Meanwhile, #2 tight end John Carlson could miss a large portion of the preseason. If he had even the 70 targets than Visanthe Shiancoe, the incumbent starter who is gone, had last season, he would have had 47 catches for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. Heading into his 2nd season in the league, with possibly improved quarterback play, he could exceed those numbers and end up being the 2nd leading receiver on a weak receiving corps. He’s a high-end TE2 with upside.

Projection: 48 catches 620 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (92 pts/140 pts PPR)

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Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Lions

QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

7/26/12: Like with Megatron, nothing new to report here, but my projections were a little high here. He’s unlikely to have 663 passing attempts again and he’s only once played all 16 games. He’s still a one year wonder not quite on the level of Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. He’s still a nice value if you can get him in the 3rd round though.

I like Matt Stafford’s chances to approach 5000 yards again as well. No team passes the ball more than the Lions. They passed 663 times last year and 633 times in 2010 without Stafford. He has a ton of weapons in Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, Nate Burleson, Ryan Broyles, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler. He might not throw for 41 touchdowns again, but he still deserves to be a high pick in fantasy circles.

Projection: 4720 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard/375 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Mikel Leshoure (Detroit)

8/20/12: Leshoure is still not 100% from his Achilles injury. He’s missed most of Training Camp and has yet to play a Preseason game. He’ll miss the first 2 games of the season anyway with suspension, but it’s definitely possible he misses a couple more with injury. Meanwhile, Kevin Smith has had a great offseason and will get the week 1 start in the absence of Best and Leshoure. He’s the Detroit back to own because he could end up being the lead back all season.

I’ll take Leshoure over Best. Yes, Leshoure is facing a suspension for a marijuana related arrest, but sources are saying it’ll only be a 2 game suspension because he entered a league substance abuse program and has been getting drug tested multi times weekly and has failed none. Leshoure is still the more durable back. He doesn’t have Best’s extensive injury history and he’s better built to withstand hits than Best. He’ll also get the goal line carries when both are healthy.

Projection: 140 carries 590 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 17 catches 130 receiving yards (102 pts standard/119 pts PPR)

RB Kevin Smith (Detroit)

8/20/12:  With Best likely out for at least 6 games and Leshoure out for at least 2 games, Smith will get at least two starts this season, but it seems like he’ll continue to be the lead back even once Leshoure returns as Leshoure is still struggling to return from his torn Achilles. There’s definitely upside with Smith as a RB3, but remember, he has a pretty checkered injury history too.

8/7/12: Mikel Leshoure is still coming back from an Achilles tear and will be suspended for the first 2 games of the season. Jahvid Best is reportedly “weeks” away from being cleared to practice. Smith will almost definitely be their week 1 starter and could be much more if he impresses early. There’s definite sleeper value here.

Projection: 160 carries 700 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 28 catches 220 receiving yards (134 pts standard/162 pts PPR)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

7/26/12: No news to report here, but my projections were a little high for Calvin Johnson. It’s unlikely that anyone, even Johnson, can repeat what Johnson did last year, especially since his team is unlikely to pass 666 times again, has other weapons, and his quarterback has only once made it through a 16 game slate. Johnson has also had his own injury history, only playing all 16 games once before last year. He’s still my #1 receiver, but don’t buy TOO high with him expecting him to catch 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns again.

Calvin Johnson was insane last season in his first full season with an actual quarterback, catching 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. He might not quite match those numbers this season, but with Stafford throwing him the ball, he remains the #1 fantasy receiver by a good margin, barring the curse of John Madden striking him down.

Projection: 87 catches 1450 receiving yards 13 receiving touchdowns (223 pts standard/310 pts PPR)

WR Titus Young (Detroit)

7/26/12: Titus Young is fully expected to win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson. Titus Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns as a mere rookie last year, despite 84 targets. Incumbent starter, Nate Burleson, caught 73 passes for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns on 110 targets. If Young had Burleson’s 110 targets last year, he would have caught 63 passes for 795 yards and 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his numbers. In his 2nd year in the league, he should exceed even those numbers, even if his team does pass less than the ridiculous 666 times they passed last year.

Titus Young might move into the starting lineup this year. The marginal Nate Burleson was targeted 110 times as a starter last year and turned that into 73 catches for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns. Young already had 48 catches for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns on 84 targets as the #3 receiver last year. The Young/Burleson battle will be one to watch in Training Camp and the preseason, but there’s definitely upside with Young. Even if he doesn’t start the season as the starter, he could move into the starting lineup during the season.

Projection: 66 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Pettigrew was actually the Lions’ 2nd most targeted receiver last year and he turned that into 83 catches for 777 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in production this year with the emergence of Titus Young and the addition of Ryan Broyles, but he’s still a solid TE1.

Projection: 72 catches 730 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/175 pts PPR)

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