2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

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Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-1

Back to this. I really broke my own rule by overreacting to the Bears’ near lose to the lowly Panthers and dropping them down even though I’ve never been sold on Atlanta. The Bears’ huge blowout win helped me see the light. Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it.

They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has. With guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. Offensively, they can run the ball, Jay Cutler is playing well. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is so hard to sack. I think they’ll continue to be fine. However, with two games against Houston and San Francisco in the next 2 weeks, we’ll get an answer real soon.

Studs

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 103 yards (61 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 12 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 45 yards on 2 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Didn’t allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 9 passes for 122 yards on 9 attempts, 2.3 YAC per catch, 3 drops

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 26 for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 114.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 30 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 9, 2 touchdowns, 2 throw away)

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 8 catches for 71 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

K Robbie Gould: 10 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.4 yards per kickoff, 18.7 opponent’s average starting position, 3/3 FG (22, 25, 40)

Duds

TE Kellen Davis: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps, didn’t catch a pass on 24 pass snaps

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -1 yards on 3 attempts

RE Julius Peppers: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Houston Texans: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

The Texans didn’t put much effort into their game against the Bills, though they still won by 12, so I’m not going to put much effort into this write up. They’ll win the AFC’s top seed with ease regardless of what happens. They really only play 2 teams with close to their talent level the rest of the way, Chicago (this week) and New England, and even if they lose both, only the banged up Ravens, who they blew out and who they hold the tiebreaker with, have less than 3 losses in the AFC, while Houston only has 1. Those two games will just be bench marks games for them to prove themselves because they got blown out by the Packers at home, the only really tough opponent they had (keep in mind, Denver hadn’t hit their stride yet when they played and I don’t count Baltimore).

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 19 of 27 for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 105.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured 7 on 29 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 5, 1 throw away)

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 6.4 YAC per catch

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 4 passes for 62 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 5 catches for 48 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Donnie Jones: 5 punts for 247 yards, 0 inside 20, 4 returns for 37 yards, 42.0 net yards per punt

Duds

C Chris Myers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 46 yards on 13 attempts

MLB Tim Dobbins: Allowed 8 catches for 97 yards on 9 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antonio Smith: 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

K Shayne Graham: 4 kickoff, 0 touchbacks, 51.5 yards per kickoff, 26.5 opponent’s average starting position, 0/1 FG

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 8-0

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 24 of 34 for 342 yards, 2 drops, 98.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 38 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 9 of 12)

WR Roddy White: Caught 7 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 129 yards on 6 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch

DT Jonathan Babineaux: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Kroy Biermann: 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

FB Lousaka Polite: Didn’t catch a pass on 1 attempt on 4 pass snaps, 1 drop, allowed 1 sack on 2 pass block snaps

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 7 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 6 catches for 83 yards on 7 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Denver Broncos: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 5-3

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They could challenge the Patriots’ for the 2nd seed in the AFC, but the Patriots have the tiebreaker, so they have the advantage there. That would leave Peyton Manning the Broncos in the 3rd seed and possibly facing his replacement Andrew Luck and his greatest rival Tom Brady in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 27 of 35 for 291 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 4 drops, 108.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 3 of 35 drop backs (2 of 3, 1 interception)

C Dan Koppen: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 7 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps

RG Chris Kuper: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 6 attempts

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: Allowed 6 catches for 29 yards on 8 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

ROLB Von Miller: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 66 yards (51 after contact) on 23 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 1 attempt

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 5 catches for 49 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Derek Wolfe: 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 5-3

The Steelers have been awfully impressive the last few weeks and even more impressive is that they’re doing it without Troy Polamalu. Over the last few years, they allow about a touchdown less per game when he’s in the lineup as opposed to when he’s not in the lineup, so just a imagine how good they’ll be once he returns. Ben Roethlisberger is quietly having an MVP type season as he’s on pace for 4406 yards, 7.4 YPA, 67.1% completion, and 32 touchdowns to 8 interceptions.

He is 5th in the NFL in QB rating and is on pace for the 2nd best QB rating of his career, behind 2007, when he threw just 404 times on a conservative offense. This year, he’s thrown 298 times on a more pass heavy offense that has had a spotty running game. You could argue this is the best regular season of his career. If they get Polamlau back for the two Baltimore games, they could easily sweep both games against an underwhelming Baltimore team and either way, they’re the favorite in the NFC North.

Studs

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 147 yards (121 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 carries, 6 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 2 attempts

LG Willie Colon: Didn’t allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 6 attempts

RG Ramon Foster: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 attempts

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 batted pass, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB LaMarr Woodley: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Lawrence Timmons: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 1 attempt

Duds

RT Mike Adams: Allowed 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Larry Foote: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 4 attempts

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New York Giants: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 5 (-3)

Record: 6-3

I picked the Giants to win last week, but it wasn’t confident and I only picked them because the Steelers had to travel on the day of the game because of Hurricane Sandy. In normal conditions, I would have picked the Steelers because this is right around when the Giants struggle. Under Tom Coughlin, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 27-38 in the final 8 games of the season. If anyone in their division could give them a challenge for a playoff spot, they might not be in my top-12, but their division has been incredibly disappointing after a strong start to the season.

Studs

LT William Beatty: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 4 attempts

LG Kevin Boothe: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

LE Justin Tuck: 2 sacks on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Osi Umenyiora: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Corey Webster: Allowed 2 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

QB Eli Manning: 10 of 24 for 125 yards and an interception, 1 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 50.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 26 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 6, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

RT David Diehl: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 29 yards on 5 attempts

RG Chris Snee: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

WR Hakeem Nicks: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch

CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 5 catches for 59 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Mark Herzlich: 5 solo tackles, 3 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

DT Chris Canty: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

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Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 5-3

If the playoffs were to start today, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts would travel to the Denver Broncos to play Peyton Manning, who through 8 games, has exactly the same amount of passing yards as his replacement Luck, 2404. The Colts are 4-1 in their last 5, since Chuck Pagano had to leave the team to undergo treatment for Leukemia, with that one loss coming against the Jets in a game in which they were understandably flat off a huge emotional win at home against the Packers in the first ChuckStrong game. This team is playing with purpose and for something greater themselves. Anyone who watched Chuck Pagano’s post-game speech can’t help but believe in this team.

On a less poignant, more concrete note, the Colts may be 5-3, but they still are -32 in points differential and have yet to win by more than a touchdown, going 5-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, something they can’t rely on going forward. However, their schedule is a joke from here on out, with games against Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Buffalo. If they win those, they’d just have to pull an upset against Detroit, New England or Houston, who they play twice (they could be resting starters week 17) to get to 10 wins. 9 might even do it in the AFC. They’re the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs.

Studs

QB Andrew Luck: 30 of 48 for 433 yards, 1 batted pass, 1 hit as thrown, 4 drops, 106.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 50 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 13 of 19, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown, 1 touchdown)

LG Joe Reitz: Didn’t allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

WR Donnie Avery: Caught 5 passes for 108 yards on 7 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

MLB Moise Fukou: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

SS Antoine Bethea: 1 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, didn’t allow a completion on 2 attempts

MLB Kavell Conner: Didn’t allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts

RB Vick Ballard: Rushed for 60 yards (33 after contact) on 16 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 38 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 4 attempts, 2 penalties, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 6 catches for 81 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

FS Tom Zbikowski: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 2 attempts, 2 kickoff returns for 52 yards

LOLB Jerry Hughes: 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

RE Fili Moala: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

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Last week: 10 (+4)

Record: 5-4

If history is any indication, the Seahawks are more likely to make it than some other borderline playoff teams in the NFC right now. Every year, 5 new playoff teams make the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, dating back 17 straight years. I use this in my Power Rankings every week. Right now, Chicago, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, looks like a lock to make it this year. Meanwhile, Cincinnati and New Orleans, two playoff teams from a year ago, look very unlikely to make it this year. Indianapolis, sitting at 5-3, is another solid bet to make the playoffs after missing it last year. Detroit, at 4-4, probably has to go 6-2 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, against a brutal schedule, so they’re probably out. Other than that, not much is set in stone.

Miami, San Diego, Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are the serious candidates for the other 3 spots in the 5 in category, while, in my opinion, Green Bay and Baltimore, thanks to injury, seem to be in the strongest (weakest?) position to be the other 2 out. Philadelphia and Dallas were candidates to be in the 5 in group before losses last week and that pretty much locked the Giants, another 5 out candidate, into a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh is another 5 out candidate, but I think they’re a better team than Baltimore right now and will sweep the two games against them, but we’ll know more in the next few weeks. With New Orleans, Detroit, and Green Bay out, that opens two more spots in the AFC, with Chicago already pretty safely locked into taking New Orleans’s vacated spot. I think Tampa Bay and Seattle have the edge over Detroit and Minnesota because those two teams have brutal schedules going forward. Seattle, meanwhile, is at home, where they’re awesome, in 4 of their final 7, and their road games aren’t too hard either as they go Miami, Chicago, and Buffalo. If they run the table at home and win one of those 3 road games, that’s 10 wins and they already have an important tiebreaker over Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 16 of 24 for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 3 drops, pressured on 10 of 28 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 3 of 6, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 drop), rushed for 26 yards on 9 attempts, 1 fumble

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 124 yards (60 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 26 yards on 2 attempts

LT Russell Okung: Didn’t allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 2 attempts

CB Brandon Browner: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Richard Sherman: Didn’t allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle

P Jon Ryan: 4 punts for 195 yards, 3 inside 20, 3 returns for 1 yard, 48.5 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

LE Red Bryant: Didn’t record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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