2012 Week 14 NFL Picks

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Steelers

San Diego Chargers (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

A lot of trends say the Chargers are the right side. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites over the past 2 seasons and the Chargers are favorites next week at home for the Panthers. Meanwhile, road dogs are 57-33 ATS off back-to-back losses as home dogs since 1989. Philip Rivers is also deadly in December, even when their season is over, as it really has been in the last 2 Decembers. He’s 21-10 ATS in week 14 or later, including 6-2 ATS since 2010, and 8-2 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, on the Steelers side of things, they are coming off an emotional, close comeback win against the divisional rival Ravens as big underdogs and they might not get up for the crappy Chargers. Favorites are 9-17 ATS as a close win (1-3) as touchdown plus divisional favorites since 1989.

However, all the trends said the Chargers would beat the Bengals and Ravens too as small home favorites. Here’s something I wish I knew 3 weeks ago. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS over the past 2 seasons as non-divisional dogs. They don’t get up for these games and it probably won’t be any different this week now that it’s essentially gotten out that everyone in San Diego is going to be canned at the end of the season. Besides, the Chargers have to go across the country for a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team, a situation teams normally struggle in. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in this spot under Norv Turner.

Calculating real line for this one wouldn’t make a ton of sense because of the fluidity of these two team’s injury situations. Obviously Ben Roethlisberger returns this week, but Troy Polamalu’s return last week should be an equally big deal. After all, their defense allows about 6 points per game fewer since the start of the 2009 season with Polamalu in the lineup rather than without him. They have other major injuries, but the sheer fact that Roethlisberger and Polamalu will be in the lineup in the same game for the first time since week 1 is a pretty big deal. Ike Taylor and LaMarr Woodley being out is important, but then again, they won without both last week.

On the Chargers’ side, their offensive line is in shambles. Already missing left tackle Jared Gaither, who has been replaced by Mike Harris, an undrafted rookie who is playing exactly like you’d expect an undrafted rookie left tackle to play, the Chargers are missing right tackle Jared Gaither, Harris, and left guard Tyronne Greene in this one. This offensive line already surpassed the Cardinals as the worst rated offensive line in the league last weeks, in terms of pass block efficiency. The fact that they’re having to go even deeper into their depth in this one is a very bad sign, especially against Dick LeBeau’s complex blitz schemes.

It’s definitely not a big play on the Steelers because of all of the trends in the Chargers’ favor, but the Chargers probably won’t get up for this game. My biggest concern is that now that they are no longer small dogs, the trends will start to matter as they’ll no longer need to win straight up to cover. They haven’t won straight up against anyone other than the Chiefs since week 2 (when they beat the crappy Titans and before that they beat the crappy Raiders), but they could easily get a backdoor cover here like they did in a very similar situation in Denver a few weeks back. The Steelers are still the play though.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 18 SD 2

Final thoughts: Tempted to boost this to 2 units, but I’m terrified of the backdoor cover. I just have the feeling that now that the Chargers won’t need to win to cover, they’ll get it done and screw me over if I make this any bigger.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers

Atlanta Falcons (11-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-9)

I really like using trends to pick NFL games. Not all games have the same weight on a team’s schedule and games don’t always mean the same thing for the teams playing it. This is why upsets happen. However, there aren’t any really good ones in play here, except this. Teams are 49-37 ATS as home favorites after a loss as road favorites since 1989, including 14-8 ATS as divisional home dogs when the previous game was non-divisional. That applies to the Panthers, who have gone from road favorites to home dogs in just one week because of one loss, which really didn’t have much to do with them, as the Chiefs were galvanized by the Jovan Belcher situation. However, that really assumes the Panthers don’t deserve to be home dogs here, which they do.

In fact, we may be getting line value with the Falcons, who are rested. Teams are 118-100 ATS on a Sunday following a Thursday game. The Falcons rank 4th in net points per drive at 0.64, while the Panthers rank 26th at -0.47. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per team) and move the line 3 points in Carolina’s direction for home field, you get a real line of Atlanta -9. However, DVOA defeats this some as the Falcons rank 10th in DVOA, while the Panthers rank 18th. In weighted DVOA, the Falcons are 14th to the Panthers’ 18th place rank. That kind of suggests we’re getting some line with the Panthers even. It’s important to compare because net points per drive doesn’t take things like schedule into account that DVOA, which is net points per drive based, does.

As you can tell, I don’t really have a good feel for this game. I’m going with the Falcons, however. The tiebreaker is the Falcons’ road performance this season. Once an incredible home team, the Falcons have for some reason failed get a single convincing home win this season, winning just one home game by more than a touchdown and that was last week against New Orleans, in a game that was closer than the final score. However, on the road they have wins of 16, 24, and 13. Granted those were against San Diego, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, but is Carolina really much better?

Public lean: Atlanta (70% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 27 ATL 8

Final thoughts: This heavy sharps lean, in contrast with the heavy public lean on Carolina, and the fact that William Moore has been ruled out for the Falcons almost made me change my pick to a unit on the Panthers, but I’d need more points to do that. This line is small enough that if I were to pick the Panthers, I’d have to really believe they could win and I don’t. This reminds me of Chicago/Tennessee a few weeks ago. All the signs pointed to Tennessee being the right side, but I didn’t believe they could actually win. Tennessee got blown out.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Jets

New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

I would say this would be the shorst game of the season, but the Jets and Cardinals from last week currently hold that title. Raiders/Chiefs next week might give them a run for their money, but this is going to be a terrible game. More importantly, how the hell am I supposed to pick a side? You’d have to be reckless and degenerate to make a big play on this game. Seriously, seek help. How can you get excited about picking the Jets as road favorites or the Jaguars as dogs of fewer than 3? There aren’t even any prominent trends that make either side attractive.

Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, we are getting some line value with the Jaguars. The Jets rank 27th in net points per drive, at -0.48, while the Jaguars rank 30th at -0.80. If you take the difference and multiply by 11, the amount of drives per team per game on average, and add 3 points for home field, you get a real line of a pick em, which makes sense because how the hell can the Jets be road favorites over anyone? That line holds up to DVOA, where the Jaguars rank 30th in both regular and weighted and the Jets rank 25th in regular and 26th in weighted. Chad Henne is also an improved quarterback over Blaine Gabbert, who started for most of their season. However, it’s not enough reason for me to want to take Jacksonville. Henne is too inconsistent anyway.

Gun to my head, I’d take the Jaguars if I had to for two reasons. One, I do think a pick em line is valid, not because the formula said so, but because this is a completely toss up of a game. Given that, I’d rather get +125 on the money line with the Jaguars than the Jets -2.5. I’m going to make this play on the money line, rather than the spread, but just know that this would rank dead last in any confidence pools and if you actually make a play on this game based off this advice, you have a problem. This is not a game to risk any real money on (I do units for confidence pools and things like that, but don’t recommend making plays on all 16 games. That’s just common sense).

The second reason is that the Jets have done a terrible job of bouncing back off of wins this season, going 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU. Those losses haven’t been pretty. Aside from a near overtime win in New England, which would have been a huge upset, their other 3 games were 27-10, 49-19, and 34-0 losses. It also doesn’t help that Sanchez is starting once again for the Jets, which means the players might just completely quit on Rex Ryan, who appears to have no clue what he’s doing. Sanchez is also without top receiver Dustin Keller.

Public lean: Jacksonville (50% range)

Sharps lean: NYJ 13 JAX 7

Final thoughts: 20 people are degenerates apparently.

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 New York Jets 12 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 0 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Commanders, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (9-3) at Washington Redskins (6-6)

Every once in a while, I like to look ahead and see which games I think I’ll take for big plays and upset picks. Last week, I looked at this one and I really expected to take the Redskins for a big play. The Ravens struggle as non-divisional road favorites and would have been looking forward to a much bigger game against Denver the following week. Teams generally struggle off a win against the Steelers as well. The Redskins would have been totally focused as dogs before being favorites and I felt the Ravens were generally overrated.

Well, a lot has changed in the last week. The Redskins pulled off the home upset against the Giants, which isn’t particularly shocking. After all, I predicted as much last week. However, what was shocking was the Ravens losing at home to the Steelers. I picked the Steelers +8.5 for a pick of the week because those two teams always play close and Charlie Batch wasn’t nearly as bad as people thought he was, but I never gave the Charlie Batch led Steelers a chance to win in Baltimore, where the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight wins.

That Baltimore loss changed things. The first thing it changed was the line. The Ravens are actually now dogs here, rather than favorites. Not only is that a huge line movement (which I generally like to fade because I hate putting too much stock into one week), but it changes up the dynamic of the game and the associated trends, which is the second thing it really changed. The Ravens aren’t coming off a win against the Steelers like I thought they would be. They aren’t non-divisional road favorites. And now that the Redskins look like a scary team, I don’t know if they’ll look past this game, even with a huge conference matchup up next against Denver.

First, about the line movement: I’ve called the Ravens overrated all season, but they might actually be underrated right now. I’m actually kind of shocked that they are 2.5 point dogs here. The Ravens rank 9th in net points per drive at 0.35, which is worse than their 9-3 record would suggest, as a result of their lack of blowout wins (a ridiculous 5 of their 9 wins have come by 3 points or fewer), but better than the Redskins, who rank 16th at -0.04.

If we take the difference and multiply by 11 and push the line 3 points in Washington’s direction for home field, we get that the Ravens should still be road favorites here of about 1.5 points. Of course, DVOA does point a slightly different picture. Baltimore ranks 9th in DVOA and Washington ranks 11th, but Baltimore does rank 10th in weighted DVOA and Washington remains at 11th. Given that, this line does make some more sense. That’s basically a theme of this game: a cloudy picture.

Injuries will play a factor. Washington is playing better lately thanks to the return of Pierre Garcon at wide receiver, which has actually given Robert Griffin a proven downfield receiver, something he lacked for most of the season (which makes what he’s doing this year even more impressive). On Baltimore’s side, Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb obviously remain out, but Terrell Suggs, who returned right when they left to help make up for their absence somewhat, is questionable with a torn biceps.

It’s not often that someone is questionable after tearing their biceps, something that would have ended most players’ seasons, but this is the same guy who returned from a torn Achilles in 5 months and played at a high level. He and Adrian Peterson are freaks of nature that injuries just don’t affect same way as most players. Suggs expects to play, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be limited. If he is, it could really hurt Baltimore’s overrated defense, which was already going to have issues stopping Robert Griffin and this pistol offense.

The trends seem to paint a cloudy picture as well. John Harbaugh is 5-3 ATS off a loss as favorites, including 2-0 ATS as dogs off a loss as favorites. That is a very limited sample size, but I generally like to take elite Head Coaches as dogs off a loss as favorites and I feel Harbaugh is one. This team will have a chip on their shoulder. Besides, teams are 16-8 ATS as dogs off a close divisional loss as touchdown favorites since 1989, including 11-3 ATS in a non-divisional contest. Meanwhile, teams are 3-13 ATS as home favorites after a win as home dogs since 2008 and teams are 7-22 ATS as favorites off a close home win as divisional dogs since 1989. That all makes sense. The Redskins might be overconfident off a huge home upset win and the Ravens are the ones with the chip on their shoulder now.

However, some trends contradict that. Road dogs are 23-42 ATS off a loss as favorites before being home dogs. The Ravens are expected to be home dogs against Denver next week. In a way, the Ravens’ loss last week actually made next week’s game against the Broncos even bigger for them so they might look past the Redskins a little bit because that game next week will matter more playoff seeding wise because it’s a potential tiebreaker. Meanwhile, on the Washington side, home favorites are 68-35 ATS before being road favorites in two straight. The Redskins have the Browns and Eagles in their next 2 weeks. This is their only hard game for a while and probably their toughest remaining opponent. That could help make sure they’re focused.

I’m taking the Redskins for a very small play for two reasons. The first is that history suggests they’ll make the playoffs. There have been 5 new playoff teams in each of the last 17 seasons. Right now, 7 incumbent playoff teams are locked into the 12 playoff spots. The Redskins need to win the NFC East and knock the Giants out and someone needs to knock the Packers out (admittedly the former is much more likely).

The Redskins could definitely win the NFC East though. They are 6-6 and will be favored in their next 4 games. If they win out, the only way the Giants can win the division is if they too win out and their schedule is much tougher as they will be dogs in 2 of 4 games. Even if the Redskins go 3-1 in their final 4, the Giants will need to also do that, which would mean beating two of the Saints, Ravens (in Baltimore, where the Ravens are much tougher, more on that later), and the Falcons (in Atlanta). The Redskins should actually be the favorites in the NFC East right now (which they aren’t) and a win here would go a long way towards helping that happen.

The 2nd reason is what I just mentioned: The Ravens home/road disparity. It doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal when they are road dogs, but that’s a much smaller sample size. Over the past 3 seasons, they’ve ripped off a 16 game home winning streak, going 21-2 at home overall, but they are just 14-11 on the road. Their average home game is a 27-17 win and on the road their average game is a 20-18 loss.

Joe Flacco seems to be a completely different quarterback on the road as well. You can see that above as the defense seems to be consistent home and away, but it’s the offense that struggles. At home, Flacco completes 60.7% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 36 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. On the road, he completes 59.1% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. I think Griffin is going to get his and it’ll be up to Flacco to keep up and I don’t know if he quite can, even though Washington’s defense has plenty of holes. I don’t have a great feel for this one though.

Public lean: Washington (50% range)

Sharps lean: BAL 17 WAS 11

Final thoughts: Terrell Suggs is out for the Ravens, which is a big deal, but I don’t have a good enough feel for this game to trust this pick.

Washington Redskins 27 Baltimore Ravens 24

Pick against spread: Washington -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Rams

St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) at Buffalo Bills (5-7)

This is a matchup of two teams that are below .500, but actually playing good football over the last few weeks. Since the bye, the Bills have played the Texans and Patriots close on the road, beaten Miami, lost in Indianapolis by only a special teams touchdown, and blew out the Jaguars. The Rams, meanwhile, are 2-1-1 since the bye, with a win and tie against the 49ers, a blowout win over the Cardinals, and only a home loss to the Jets, in which the Jets had the huge trends edge, as a blemish. Why are these teams playing better football? Well, let’s take a look.

Starting with the Bills, Mario Williams had a wrist procedure during the bye and has been playing much better football of late. After recording 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hurries in his first 7 games, he has 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback hurries in last 5 games. Left tackle Cordy Glenn also returned from a 3 game absence for that first game after the bye, which has stabilized their offensive line, important because Ryan Fitzpatrick is a much noticeably better quarterback when he’s not pressured, more than most.

Also, cornerback Aaron Williams left with an injury in that Houston game and hasn’t played since. Williams was one of the worst defensive backs in the league before getting hurt, so his absence has really been addition by subtraction. As for the Rams, they’ve also gotten healthier. Rodger Saffold returned at left tackle 4 weeks ago, not so coincidentally when their play improved, and Scott Wells returned at center 2 weeks ago, which also helped things.

I think the Rams are more likely to continue playing well than the Bills for several reasons. For one, center Eric Wood is out for the Bills, which really hurts their offensive line. Given Fitzpatrick’s reliance on his offensive line, it’s not surprise this offense went in the tank last season when Wood got hurt. Aaron Williams is also expected to return for the Bills, which probably isn’t a good thing. As for the Rams, Danny Amendola is expected to see the most action he’s seen in 2 weeks this week, which gives Sam Bradford by far his favorite target back. Chris Givens stepped up in his absence as well and if he can continue that, that would give Bradford two weapons to work with downfield, which is sadly a new record for him.

The trends also favor the Rams. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when the opponent will next be dogs and 34-14 ATS when all 3 games will be non-divisional (current game, next game, opponent’s next game). The Rams host the Vikings next week and will be favored and the Bills host the Seahawks and will be dogs; all 3 of those games are obviously non-divisional. Going off that, non-conference favorites are 19-36 before being non-conference dogs since 2002. We’re not really get any line value (real line is Buffalo -3.5, according to net points per play, but the Rams hold a slight edge in DVOA) or chance to fade the public (equal action), but I like the Rams for a small play.

Public lean: Buffalo (50% range)

Sharps lean: STL 12 BUF 8

Final thoughts: Amendola is out for the Rams, but there is no change.

St. Louis Rams 17 Buffalo Bills 16 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

All of the trends say the Eagles are in a good spot this week and should cover. Road dogs off a road loss are 85-48 ATS since 2008 and the Eagles are dogs here in Tampa Bay after losing in Dallas last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are in what’s known as the sandwich game, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs again. They lost in Denver last week as dogs and will go to New Orleans next week. Teams tend to take the sandwich game lightly, as a breather, going 59-84 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Meanwhile for the Eagles, teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. For whatever reason, teams on long losing streaks tend to cover after almost breaking through and winning a game. Andy Reid also does well as road dogs in his career, going 38-21 ATS in this situation, including 10-3 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. This includes a cover in Dallas last week.

That being said, I can’t take the Eagles here. Remember how they were playing before the Carolina and Dallas game? They looked like they had absolutely quit. They did a good job of playing for pride in two nationally televised games, including one in which they were big divisional dogs and one in which they were home dogs to a previously 2-8 team. This week, they aren’t on national TV and they have no real reason to try hard here against Tampa Bay, who is desperate for a win to remain in the playoff hunt. Philadelphia had their best effort of the season last week and nearly pulled the upset in Dallas. That was their Super Bowl. They probably won’t give nearly that level of effort this week. Their secondary blows numerous coverages and allows numerous big plays per game and that’s what Josh Freeman thrives on.

Meanwhile, we’re getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 11th in net points per drive at 0.29, while Philadelphia ranks 28th at -0.49. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 3 points for home field advantage, we get that the Buccaneers should be favored by about 11.5 points, which makes sense since the Cowboys were 10 point favorites last week and almost covered (the Eagles covered on a very late punt returner). The Cowboys aren’t better than the Buccaneers. I know they won when they played earlier this year, but it was close in Dallas and Tampa Bay is a completely different team now.

That line holds up against DVOA, which ranks Tampa Bay 13th and Philadelphia 27th, including 12th and 28th respectively in weighted DVOA. I like to compare that to net points per drive for confirmation because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. That line makes sense because the Buccaneers are better than their 6-6 record. Not only have they been playing better football in general since the bye (I don’t knock them too much for losses to Atlanta and Denver), but they have a +48 points differential which is much better than their record. That’s good for 9th in the NFL and 5th in the loaded NFC.

That’s because they haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points and they have 4 wins by double digits. I think they get their 5th here. It’s only a small play though because of the trends, which all favor Philadelphia, but I really don’t think they’ll give a crap. I’ve lost a lot of big plays this year betting on the Eagles when all the trends are on their side. Trends don’t too a ton of a good when a team has quit and aside from the last 2 weeks, when they had a reason to give a crap, they have quit.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (60% range)

Sharps lean: TB 8 PHI 8

Final thoughts: No change.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I like the Bengals this week. It’s not that the Bengals are bad or anything, but I just haven’t picked them yet this year. It’s nothing against them or anything and I haven’t really been missing out as they’re just 6-6 ATS, but for whatever reason, I’ve never seen Cincinnati as the right side yet this season.

This week, I do. It’s not so much about the Bengals as it is about the Cowboys. The Cowboys really are not a very good team this year and this line says these two teams are comparable, which I don’t find to be true. The Cowboys really struggle as home favorites since Cowboys stadium opened in 2009, going 9-17 ATS. The opposite happens somewhat when they are road dogs, but not a ton as they are 10-6 ATS since 2009 as road dogs.

However, Tony Romo is awful in week 14 or later, going 10-20 ATS in his career. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-12 ATS as home favorites since 2009, but 3-4 ATS since Andy Dalton took over. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s definitely worth noting that they always kill non-playoff teams. Last year, they went 9-0 against non-playoff teams (and 0-8 against playoff teams).

This year, I believe they are 6-2 against non-playoff teams and 1-3 against teams I think will make the playoffs (they beat Giants/Redskins, one of which will make the playoffs, and lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver). The Cowboys definitely would seem to fall into the non-playoff category, so the Bengals should be able to win. This is a pretty small line, so that matters.

Speaking of this line, as I mentioned, it’s too small. These two teams are not equal. Net points per drive backs this up. The Bengals rank 7th at 0.48, while the Cowboys rank 17th at -0.08. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average number of drives per team per game) and add 3 points for home field, you get Cincinnati -9.

DVOA seems to support this as the Bengals rank 12th, but 9th in weighted DVOA, which gives higher weight to more recent games. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 16th, but 19th in weighted. They’re just not a very good team and they’re not going to get better now that it’s December. We also get to fade a public dog, however small, by taking Cincinnati. It’s a small play on the Bengals.

Public lean: Dallas (50% range)

Sharps lean: DAL 19 CIN 10

Final thoughts: I’m dropping down to 1 unit. Like Chiefs/Panthers last week, I have no idea how the death of teammate Jerry Brown in a drunk driving accident with teammate Josh Brent as the driver will affect this team. There’s no one way tragic events effect teams, so I’m dropping down because I have zero confidence in either side now.

Final thoughts II: For purely confidence pools purposes, I’m going to go with the Cowboys money line in this one. I don’t love either side because we don’t know how the Cowboys’ tragedy will effect this one, but I’d rather have Dallas +155 than Cincinnati -3 in what should be a true toss up. It also feels better to be on the side of the Cowboys after what happened yesterday and on a small pick that doesn’t really matter and that counts for something.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-110) 0 units

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

The Seahawks were able to get a rare road win in Chicago last week after face planting in Miami the week before thanks to the road dogs after a road loss trend. This week, it could potentially hurt their ability to win at home because the Cardinals are in that spot. They lost as road dogs in New York against the Jets last week and are now road dogs here. Road dogs off a road loss are 85-48 ATS since 2008.

I say potentially because the Seahawks are so dominant at home, as opposed to on the road. Since the start of the 2005 season, they are 45-20 ATS at home, as opposed to 23-43 ATS on the road. They are 5-0 ATS there this year with 3 straight up wins as dogs against Dallas, Green Bay, and New England. This is the first time they’ve laid 10 or more at home, but they are actually 5-0 ATS in that spot since 2005 and 15-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For the record, they are 5-1 ATS when their opponent is dogs after a road loss since 2005, which kind of throws that trend out the window.

We are getting line value with the Cardinals. The Seahawks rank 10th in net points per drive at 0.31, while the Cardinals rank 21st at -0.18. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 3 points for home field, you get that Seattle should be 8.5 point favorites, rather than 10 point favorites.

However, it’s important to add a human element to things like this and I can shoot that down with the human element in 3 ways. One, I like to look at DVOA to compare to net points per drive. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. Seattle ranks 4th in DVOA, including 3rd in weighted, while Arizona ranks 24th in DVOA, and 25th in weighted. That’s a much, much bigger difference than where these two teams are in net points per drive.

Second, the reason Arizona is better in regular DVOA than weighted DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily, is that, in case you haven’t noticed, they’re not playing so well lately. They’ve lost 8 straight and are nowhere near the team they were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Their defense isn’t playing nearly as well as it once was and offensively, they really miss Kevin Kolb which is saying something.

Ryan Lindley has been benched for John Skelton in this one, but I don’t know how much that helps. Remember, Skelton is completing 54.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions.

In the Atlanta game, he was 2 of 7 for 6 yards before becoming the first and probably only quarterback in NFL history to get benched for Ryan Lindley. He’s an upgrade over Lindley, but that’s not saying much because I’m not sure I’m not an upgrade over Ryan Lindley. Lindley and Jimmy Clausen should have a suck off this offseason for charity. Skelton won’t have much success at all against Seattle’s awesome defense, especially not in Seattle, even with Brandon Browner suspended. That suspension will matter down the line against capable quarterbacks, but not so much in this one.

The third reason that 8.5 point line is invalid is because that assumes we use the standard 3 points for home field, which I argue we shouldn’t for Seattle’s games because of their home/road disparity. That 3 points come from the average amount an NFL team outscores its opponent at home, 3 points. Since 2005, the Seahawks outscore opponents by 6 points on average at home and get outscored by 6 points on the road.

For this reason, they outscore opponents by about 3 points per game ATS at home and get outscored by 3 points per game ATS on the road. That whole disparity could be closed if we used 6 points for home field for their games, in both directions, both home and away, which is why I do. Using that, we get a real line of Seattle -11.5, which gives us line value with Seattle, before even taking into account DVOA and Arizona’s awful quarterback situation and complete lack of momentum.

NFC West divisional games tend to be won by the home team and covered by the home favorite anyway. This makes sense. NFC West is 107-80 ATS at home since 2007. No division has as big of a home/road disparity as the NFC West. Seattle is a big part of why, but not the only reason. As you can imagine, when NFC West teams meet, the home team generally covers, especially as favorites, going 23-14 ATS in this spot since 2007.

As home favorites of more than a touchdown, teams are 12-5 ATS and 7-2 ATS as home favorites of double digits. The Seahawks are 11-4 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2005, 8-2 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown, and 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites. NFC West divisional games also tend to go under the total, as the under has gone 80-54 since 2007, so I like the under, as well, in this one.

One trend is also in Arizona’s favor as teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer, but I can’t take Arizona here. The Seahawks are way too good at home and John Skelton is going to have a very, very tough time putting points on the board here against this Seahawks defense at home. I don’t like to lay more than a touchdown for a big play, but Seattle should still be the right side. They’re also my obvious survivor choice this week as I have yet to use them.

Public lean: Seahawks (50% range)

Sharps lean: ARI 16 SEA 2

Final thoughts: Sharps rarely back a double digit favorite. This is a little concerning, but then again, the Sharps haven’t had a good 3 week stretch either. I’d be more worried if my confidence level in the sharps was what it was a few weeks ago.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, TB)

Pick against spread: Seattle -10 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 36 (-110) 1 unit

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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (5-7) at San Francisco 49ers (8-3)

The 49ers lost to the Rams last week in St. Louis, which has gotten a lot of Alex Smith supporters saying “I told you so,” questioning Jim Harbaugh’s decision to bench Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick. These people seem to be forgetting that Smith was losing to those same Rams at home when he got hurt and that he also lost to the Vikings. Oh, and if David Akers had hit a makeable field goal or Delanie Walker hadn’t dropped a very catchable touchdown, the 49ers would have won and we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

Kaepernick gives the 49ers the biggest ceiling and the best chance to win the Super Bowl. He allows them to use the entirety of their complex playbook with his running ability and deep play ability and he hasn’t seemed fazed by the mental part of the complex playbook each, which was formerly Smith’s greatest advantage. He also helps open things up on the ground even more for their tough running game, which is already one of the best in the league because of Frank Gore’s talent, their play calling and playbook, and more importantly their offensive line, which might be the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL. According to ProFootballFocus they are by far the best run blocking offensive line in the league. They were never really winning, with a few exceptions, because of Alex Smith.

Harbaugh absolutely made the right decision benching Smith and going back now would be really stupid and create even more unnecessary controversy, potentially a divide in the locker room, and would generally give the impression to his team that he doesn’t have a plan. If Smith struggles, is it back to Kaepernick? A team can’t succeed like that. And that’s why Harbaugh, a very intelligent coach, wasted no time re-affirming Kaepernick’s status as the starter after the loss.

The 49ers’ season has followed a bit of a pattern. They won their first 2 games against incumbent playoff teams and were anointed early favorites at 2-0 with two impressive wins. Then they lost in Minnesota and people started to back off. They followed that up by destroying the Bills and Jets by a combined score of 79-3 over a two week stretch, before getting blown out at home by the Giants. They bounce back from that loss with a home win over the Seahawks and a blowout win in Arizona, which they followed up by tying the Rams at home as huge favorites.

They bounced back from that tie with a blowout win of the Bears and an impressive double digit victory in New Orleans, before last week’s loss. I expect that pattern to continue at least another week, meaning the 49ers will probably blow out the Dolphins here in San Francisco. I say at least another week because the 49ers play the Patriots next week, certainly a winnable game, but also a game they could play very well in and still lose.

Jim Harbaugh always seems to bounce back off a loss very well, as the great coaches do. Bill Belichick is 35-19 ATS off a loss since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 22-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 17-11 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (27-24 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet like the 5 I just mentioned, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a very impressive, albeit limited resume off a loss or tie, going 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU. That one ATS loss was only because he declined a safety late against Seattle and it could have been a push depending on the line you got (it opened at -7, but went towards -9 before the game and the 49ers won by 7).

Not only is he 7-0 in those games, but he’s doing it in impressive fashion, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game. The 49ers have also only allowed a combined 46 points in the 7 games off those 7 non-wins (losses, ties). That’s an average of 6.6 points per game and 22 of those 46 points were scored by the Packers, who are tough to keep off the scoreboard in any situation. If we exclude that game, the 49ers have allowed 4.0 points per game in the other 6 games, two shut outs, 3 points, 6 points, 7 points, and an 8 point “outburst” by the Bengals way back in week 3 of last season.

The Dolphins have the league’s 6th worst scoring offense at 18.9 points per game and now have to travel across the country to face the 49ers off a loss. They might not score all game. I’m not kidding. This is a big line, but I think the Dolphins are unlikely to get out of single digits. The 49ers really only need to get 20 at most to cover I think.

We’re also getting line value with the 49ers here. They rank 2nd in the league in net points per drive at 0.92, while the Dolphins rank 18th at -0.1. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 3 points for home field advantage, we get a real line of San Francisco -14. That checks out with DVOA, which is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule, as San Francisco ranks 3rd and 4th in regular and weighted DVOA respectively, while Miami ranks 21st in both.

The trends do paint a mixed picture, aside from the Jim Harbaugh off a loss trend. Home favorites tend to struggle off an overtime loss on the road since 2002, going 10-24 ATS. However, things are a little bit better when the overtime loss was as road favorites. Teams in that situation are 4-7 ATS since 2002, 10-16 ATS if we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, which isn’t awful. This is because teams tend to bounce back well off a loss as road favorites like that. Going off that, teams are 13-7 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points) as touchdown plus divisional road favorites since 1989.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs, and 34-14 ATS when all 3 games (current game, next game,and opponent’s next game) will be non-divisional. The 49ers will be dogs in New England next week, while the Dolphins host the lowly Jaguars, a game they’ll be favored in. And all 3 of those games are non-divisional.

However, the Dolphins are coming off a loss to the Patriots, a situation they are 3-8 ATS in since 2002. That makes sense. The Patriots have been the toast of the AFC East over the past decade and arguably the Dolphins’ biggest rival. Last week, they put everything into that game and came up just short, losing by a touchdown. That was their Super Bowl. They’re big dogs here, but they could easily be flat. Even if they’re not, they’re going to have a tough, tough time scoring here if history is any indication, so as big of favorites as the 49ers are, I think they’re the right side. I hate laying this many points though, so it’s not a huge play.

Public lean: San Francisco (60% range)

Sharps lean: SF 8 MIA 5

Final thoughts: Worth noting that the sharps rarely back a double digit favorite, so it’s good to see they do here, even if it’s only a small lean.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Miami Dolphins 6

Pick against spread: San Francisco -10 (-110) 2 units

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Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans

Houston Texans (11-1) at New England Patriots (9-3)

This is a huge game. The Texans, tied for best record in the NFL at 11-1, will be dogs for the 2nd time this season as they head to Foxboro to play the New England Patriots. The Texans covered in their first instance as dogs this season, beating the Bears in Chicago. Good teams normally cover as dogs and a trend that exemplifies that is that dogs are 102-57 ATS before being favorites since 2011. The Texans host the Colts next week. That being said, I actually really like the Patriots this week, for several reasons.

The first is how good the Patriots are at this time of year. The Patriots are not a smart team to bet against after week 9. In the last 3 seasons between weeks 10 and 17, they are 20-0, outscoring opponents by an average of 19 points per game, with the average final score being 38-19. Even taking the spread into account, they are 13-7 ATS.

Going off of that, Tom Brady is deadly at home in December. The last time he lost a December home game was 2002, his 2nd season in the league and not so coincidentally, the only season in his career as a starter in which he didn’t make the playoffs. That’s his only career December home loss. In fact, in his career, he has a record of 24-2 at home between weeks 13 and 17. The only two losses were that aforementioned 2002 loss to the Jets and a 2005 loss to the Dolphins, which was actually in January. The fact that it was in January may or may not matter, but the fact remains, when the temperature gets cold, he’s always gotten red hot. If you add in home playoff games, that record grows to 36-6.

The Patriots had a little bit of trouble last week in Miami, winning only 23-16 and failing to cover, but that was probably just because they were caught looking forward to this game. That would mean two things. One, this is obviously a hugely important game to them, which isn’t any big secret, but it’s important to note and something I’ll mention later. Two, the fact that they were able to basically lead throughout despite being in a potential trap game situation is very, very impressive. This is a very, very good team, which is actually the 2nd reason I like the Patriots. It’s also worth noting that the Patriots are now healthier as Chandler Jones, Logan Mankins, and Dan Connolly are expected to return this week.

The Texans may have the better record, but I think the Patriots are the better team. They have by far the league’s best points differential at +170. Only Houston, who is 2nd, is within 40 points of them at +130. They also lead the league in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA. Using net points per drive, this line should be -6. The Patriots lead the league at 1.05, while the Texans are 3rd at 0.79. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get that 6 point spread. In reality, this line is at -3.5. We’re getting significant line value with the Patriots.

That line not only checks out with DVOA, which is net points per drive based but also takes into account things like strength of schedule, but DVOA actually says there’s a bigger difference between these two teams than net points per drive. The Patriots rank 1st in both regular and weighted, while the Texans rank 7th in both, a good deal lower than the 3rd they rank in net points per drive. Further showing how good the Patriots are and have been for the last 3 years, they have been a covering machine, with the exception of one situation. They struggle to cover as home favorites of more than a touchdown. However, in every other situation, they are 22-9 ATS over the last 3 years, the 3rd reason I like the Patriots.

The 4th reason I like the Patriots is that the Texans are a one loss team late in the season who are dogs. You might think that betting dogs with great records like that this late in the season is a winning proposition, especially given the trend I mentioned earlier in this write up, about dogs before being favorites. In fact, it looks like the majority of the public does think that, as the Texans are at least somewhat a publicly backed underdog. I love fading the public, especially when they back a dog. The odds makers need dogs and favorites to cover evenly and to make money. The public frequently back a favorite, but when they back a dog, it’s always a good reason to stay away from that dog. The odds makers know what they’re doing and always make money in the long run, which is the 5th reason I like the Patriots.

Back to the 4th reason, dogs with 1 win or fewer this late in the season actually really struggle to cover the spread. Those teams are 2-8 ATS since 1989 and the only two wins were actually by teams starting backup quarterbacks in meaningless week 17 games. Excluding meaningless week 17 games, teams are 0-8 ATS and SU in that situation. This actually makes some sense. It’s so rare that a team with a record like this is a dog this late in the season, but when they are, it’s typically for a very good reason and there are very good reasons why the Patriots are favored and deserve to be this week.

Earlier I mentioned how huge of a game this is for the Patriots, that’s actually the 6th reason I like the Patriots. Now, obviously this is a huge game for the Texans too, but I think that first, it’s bigger for the Patriots and second that I trust Tom Brady in a big game like this more than I trust the Texans. Matt Schaub doesn’t have a ton of experience in big games like this. He’s never even played in a playoff game and while they did beat the Bears by 7 in a similar type game earlier this year, that ending could have been different if Jay Cutler hadn’t gotten hurt and Schaub didn’t exactly play well. In another similar type game, the Texans got blown out at home by the Packers.

Tom Brady, meanwhile, has tons of experience in games like this. Further reason why I trust Brady so much more in this game, his career record against teams with a better record than him is absolutely nuts. Straight up, he’s 25-11. Think about that. Teams have a better record than him and they beat him less than a third of the time. For reference, the rest of the league wins about 37.7% of the time when playing a team with a better record than theirs. Brady is at 69.4%. Against the spread he’s 26-9-1 in those rare 36 games. Even as favorites, he’s 9-4 ATS. The Texans may be dogs, but I think it’s much, much more likely that Brady is the one that has the eff you game. The Texans are above him in the standings and the public is at least somewhat doubting him.

I can see it now, Brady warming up pregame in Foxboro, he’s got that look in his eyes, and you can see his breath coming out through his helmet. There’s nothing scientific about this, but if I picked against him in this situation and then saw that watching the pregame, I’d be terrified. It’s one of the things you learn. Never bet against Brady in a big home game late in the season. He doesn’t lose games like this, not late in the season, not in December, not at home, not against a team with a better record than his. Brady is also 10-6 ATS on Monday Nights. If we had field goal protection with the Patriots at, it’d be a co-pick of the week or maybe even a standalone 5 unit pick of the week. Even at -3.5, it’s a significant play. I also like the over. In the Patriots 20 games between weeks 10 and 17 in the last 3 seasons, the total has gone over 17 times.

Public lean: New England (50%)

Sharps lean: NE 14 HOU 4

Final thoughts: If I had more confidence in the sharps, I’d boost this to 4 units. I really wish this line was -3 too.

New England Patriots 31 Houston Texans 24

Pick against spread: New England -3.5 (-110) 3 units

Total: Over 51 (-110) 1 unit

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