2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 6 (-5)

Record: 1-2

The Steelers suck on the road. Over the last year plus on the road, they are -43, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year and now they lost to Oakland. They also really miss James Harrison and especially Troy Polamalu. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. The Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. Once the Steelers get home and get healthy off a bye, they should be fine. In a weak AFC, they still look like a good bet for the playoffs, but I don’t like their chances of winning a road playoff game, which it looks like they’ll have to.

Studs

QB Ben Roethlisberger: 36 of 49 for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 2 spikes, 100.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 51 drop backs (1 sack, 6 of 9, 1 throw away)

WR Mike Wallace: 8 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 4.9 YAC per catch

Duds

RB Jonathan Dwyer: Rushed for -1 yards (1 after contact) on 3 carries, 1 fumble, 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LE Ziggy Hood: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

P Drew Butler: 3 punts for 108 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 5 yards, 34.3 net yards per punt

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 26 (+14)

Record: 2-1

The Vikings’ win over the 49ers was no fluke. They rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential and they have a winning record despite no advantage in turnovers +0. The Vikings went 3-13 last year, but had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins and averaged 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league, in the 9 games Christian Ponder led the team in passing attempts. Ponder has taken a major step forward in his 2nd year in the league, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, including 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers, probably the league’s best defense.

Percy Harvin has emerged not just a legitimate #1 receiver, but one of the best receivers in the league, ranking 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage by a receiver, now that the coaching staff is utilizing him properly. Kyle Rudolph has emerged as a secondary option. Adrian Peterson has made a miraculously recovery. The offensive line ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency thanks to some offseason changes and the defense is better as well now that they’re healthier. Every year a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. The Vikings are the favorites right now and by a good margin after other candidates St. Louis, Washington, and Tampa Bay all lost last week. Of the 7 candidates, only Minnesota is even in the top-24 in yards per play differential.

Studs

C John Sullivan: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 122 attempts

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 6 attempts

ROLB Chad Greenway: Allowed 5 catches for 20 yards on 6 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops, 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes

CB Antoine Winfield: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

Duds

RB Toby Gerhart: Rushed for 18 yards (9 after contact) on 8 carries, 3 fumbles, 2 catches for 20 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

RG Brandon Fusco: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

WR Michael Jenkins: 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

RE Everson Griffen: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

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Green Bay Packers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 1 (-12)

Record: 1-2

This is my shocker of the week. The Packers didn’t deserve to lose last week. But they still did. In a loaded NFC, that could be the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs. One team every year goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. The NFC is the significantly superior conference this year, so it’s more likely that it’s going to be one of the NFC teams, unless one of the AFC teams is legitimately undeserving (I don’t think either Baltimore or New England is). In the NFC, however, legitimately deserving teams can miss the playoffs.

The Packers are a legitimately deserving team, but that might not be enough and they’re behind the 8-ball starting at 1-2. I think they’re more likely to miss the playoffs than the 49ers, who beat them head-to-head in Lambeau and who stand at 2-1 now in an easier division. The Packers and 49ers were the NFC’s 2 first round bye teams last year. The Packers also need to be worry about the fact that their offense has 4 touchdowns in 3 games and that Aaron Rodgers is 2-4 in his last 6, including playoffs.

Green Bay Packers

Studs

FS Charles Woodson: Did not allow a completion on 4 targets, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists

ROLB Clay Matthews: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 6 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Ryan Pickett: Did not record a pressure on 8 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops

Duds

RB Cedric Benson: Rushed for 45 yards (35 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 17 carries, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 4 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets, 1 drop

RT Bryan Bulaga: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 8 quarterback pressures on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 3 attempts

C Jeff Saturday: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback pressure on 55 pass block, 1 penalty, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts

WR Greg Jennings: Caught 6 passes for 35 yards on 9 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

WR Jordy Nelson: Caught 2 passes for 19 yards on 3 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackles

MLB DJ Smith: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 pass rush snaps

RE Jerel Worthy: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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New York Giants: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 17 (+3)

Record: 2-1

The Giants are certainly talented enough for a playoff spot, but in spite of their win over the Panthers, this team still has some obvious flaws, much like they did last year. Last year, they won just 9 regular season games and had a negative point differential. Right now, they rank just 13th in yards per play differential, so they’re right about where they were last regular season. That’s not going to cut it in a loaded NFC.

Studs

QB Eli Manning: 27 of 35 for 288 yards, 1 touchdowns, 2 drops, 1 hit as thrown, 107.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 38 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 1 of 3, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Andre Brown: Rushed for 113 yards (83 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 20 carries, broke 2 tackles, allowed 1 sack on 6 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 17 yards on 4 targets

LG Kevin Boothe: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 2 attempts

RT Sean Locklear: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 1 attempt

WR Ramses Barden: Caught 9 passes for 138 yards on 10 targets on 40 pass snaps, 5.1 YAC per catch

CB Prince Amukamara: Allowed 1 completion for 9 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

RE Jason Pierre-Paul: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

CB Corey Webster: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards on 3 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

MLB Chase Blackburn: 1 solo tackle, allowed 2 catches for 35 yards on 3 attempts

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Buffalo Bills: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 12 (-3)

Record: 2-1

This Bills fall despite winning for several reasons. One is the injury to CJ Spiller. Both he and Fred Jackson are questionable this week and will probably be back eventually, but it’s definitely not a good thing. The other is just that other teams in the AFC and have leaped them and the only reason they were in the top 12 is because top 12 is my playoff teams. I have Buffalo finishing one spot out of the playoffs now. An easy schedule, a good defense, a good running game, an excellent offensive line (first in the league in pass block efficiency) and a quarterback who can be decent if you give him time should allow them to be competitive and be in it until the last week or so, but I have them just missing.

Studs

C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 57 yards on 7 attempts

RG Kraig Urbik: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 7 attempts

LOLB Nick Barnett: 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, allowed 5 catches for 27 yards on 5 attempts

CB Aaron Williams: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

LOLB Bryan Scott: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, allowed 2 catches for 3 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception

FS Jairus Byrd: Allowed 2 catches for 2 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

RE Chris Kelsay: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (+7)

Record: 3-0

Like the Seahawks and Marshawn Lynch, do you really trust anyone on this offense other than Larry Fitzgerald? The defense is great, but I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. They have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per plays. 3-0 is impressive, especially considering who they’ll played, but the Bills started 3-0 last year. Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction and take advantage of a dynamic change with the Cardinals going from dogs in 3 straight (and pulling 3 straight upsets) to being favorites. It’s one thing to win when nobody believes in you. It’s another to win when you buy into your own hype (see the 49ers last week).

Studs

QB Kevin Kolb: 17 of 24 for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 108.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 29 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 scrambles, 4 of 7, 1 throw away, 1 touchdown)

RB Ryan Williams: Rushed for 83 yards (59 after contact) on 13 attempts, 5 broken tackles, 1 catch for 12 yards on 2 attempts

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 9 passes for 114 yards on 9 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

SS Kerry Rhodes: 1 catch for 14 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Calais Campbell: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback pressures on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, no tackles

ROLB Sam Acho: 2 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback pressures on 29 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RB Beanie Wells: Rushed for 18 yards (13 after contact) on 8 carries

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Paris Lenon: Allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 19 blitzes

LE Darnell Dockett: 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

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Last week: 24 (+7)

Record: 2-1

Bogus win aside, do you really trust anyone on this offense aside from Marshawn Lynch? Their offense was stagnant all night on it took some blown calls to even get them into double digits. Russell Wilson was 9 of 20 for 106 yards and a touchdown before that late touchception. That’s not all him, his receiving corps and offensive line aren’t very good either, but that’s to be expected from a rookie quarterback, especially a 3rd round rookie quarterback. Their defense is the real deal, but the defense was the real deal last year too and they missed the playoffs at 7-9, despite the 7th ranked scoring defense in the league. They’ll probably end up with about 8 or 9 wins this year, but in a loaded NFC, I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs. They actually have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per play.

Studs

LG Paul McQuistan: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

C Max Unger: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 13 attempts

RG John Moffitt: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 5 attempt

SS Kam Chancellor: Allowed 5 catches for 20 yards on 7 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB KJ Wright: Allowed 6 catches for 50 yards on 8 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass rush snaps

RE Chris Clemons: 4 sacks and 3 quarterback hits on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 stops

LE Bruce Irvin: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback pressures on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

DT Brandon Mebane: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Jon Ryan: 6 punts for 301 yards, 4 inside 20, 3 returns for 12 yards, 48.2 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Russell Okung: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

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Tennessee Titans: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 25 (+7)

Record: 1-2

There’s the Titan team I put in the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Jake Locker looked much more comfortable with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt at full strength, going 29 of 42 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, although part of that might be Detroit’s crappy secondary. The Titans do rank 18th in yards per play differential, but I’m not putting them back in the playoffs or anything yet. Chris Johnson is still hilariously bad, even against the type of poor run defense he would have gashed last season, and the young defense is still missing Cortland Finnegan and Colin McCarthy, though the latter is expected back from injury some time soon.

Studs

QB Jake Locker: 29 of 42 for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 drops, 100.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 45 drop backs (0 sacks, 3 of 7, 1 drop)

LG Steve Hutchinson: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 1 attempt

C Fernando Velasco: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

OT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -5 yards on 1 attempt

CB Alterraun Verner: Allowed 6 catches for 38 yards on 8 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

CB Tommie Campbell: 1 punt return for 65 yards and a touchdown

WR Darius Reynaud: 4 kickoff returns for 174 yards and a touchdown, 1 carry for 0 yards (1 after contact), 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 5 pass snaps

Duds

RB Chris Johnson: Rushed for 24 yards (15 after contact) on 14 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

LOLB Will Witherspoon: Allowed 6 catches for 83 yards on 9 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackle

CB Ryan Mouton: Allowed 11 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 1 penalty, 10 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Kamerion Wimbley: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 55 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

LE Scott Solomon: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Carolina Panthers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 22 (+3)

Record: 1-2

The Panthers looked horrible at home on Thursday Night, but they were the inferior team and superior, veteran, proven teams always have the advantage over teams like the Panthers. The good news is that they still rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential. They’re getting killed in turnover differential, with a -6, tied for worst with the Eagles, but that tends to even out over time. Well rested, they go into a tough test in Atlanta this week and I think they have a better shot than people are giving them, even if the Falcons are awesome at home.

Studs

RT Garry Williams: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

Duds

QB Cam Newton: 16 of 30 for 242 yards, 3 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown, 2 throw aways, 56.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 33 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 1 of 3, 1 hit as thrown), rushed for 6 yards (18 after contact) and a touchdown on 6 carries

WR Brandon LaFell: 1 catch for 27 yards on 4 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to

SS Charles Godfrey: Allowed 3 catches for 34 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antwan Applewhite: Did not record a pressure on 12 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Charles Johnson: 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

WR Joe Adams: 2 special teams fumbles, 1 punt return for 0 yards, 5 kickoff returns for 105 yards

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Record: 1-2

Last week: 20 (-1)

Andrew Luck doesn’t have any help. He played well, but losing at home to Jacksonville is embarrassing. The good news is that they outplayed the Jaguars, despite the loss, and they should be getting healthier defensively soon, after the bye. They also have a very easy schedule and Andrew Luck is also the real deal, which is the most important thing in what was probably going to be a lost season anyway. There’s hope for this team for the future, but this was more than a one year rebuild for a team that hasn’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2006.

Studs

RT Winston Justice: Did not allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LG Seth Olsen: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps, 1 attempt, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 4 attempts

WR Donnie Avery: 2 catches for 28 yards on 8 targets on 53 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

TE Coby Fleener: Did not catch a pass on 1 target on 22 pass plays, 1 drop,

MLB Kavell Conner: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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