2012 Week 5 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

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Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

There’s a reason I saved this one for last. I don’t really have much of a clue. The line is -3 in favor of Atlanta. These two teams have a difference in yards per play differential of .9. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for Washington for home field advantage and you get that the real line should be…-3 in favor of Atlanta. Meanwhile, there aren’t any prominent trends at play here.

There is one trend that used to be prominent at play here. Since 1989, home dogs coming off a road win are 101-50 ATS against a team coming off a home win. However, since 2002, that trend is just 42-33, meaning from 1989 to 2002, teams in this situation were a ridiculous 59-18, but since then, it’s kind of died down so I don’t really know if that means Washington is going to win.

The public really likes Atlanta, but this line is really small and I don’t know if I’m comfortable picking Washington to win here. This is still a horrible defensive team, as much as they can put points on the board. Meanwhile, the sharps are completely split on this one. I’m going with the home team just because I think last week dealt them a wake up call, their near loss at home to Carolina, and it’s not like this team to sleepwalk through 2 games in a row.

Under Mike Smith, their a whopping 17-3 ATS off a loss and though they did though they didn’t lose last week, it might still have the same effect on this team. For the record, they’re 5-4 ATS off a close win under Mike Smith. I think they’ll win, improve to 5-0, and cover the 3, but if I did zero unit picks, this would be one.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Washington covers)

Sharps lean: WAS 7 ATL 9

Atlanta Falcons 31 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

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San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Last year, the Chargers started 4-1. It was a shock to many people before they’re normally horrible early in the season, especially compared to later in the season. Prior to last year, The Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-4 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. However, their 4-1 record was explainable because they were beating up on bad teams like Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, and Denver (Prebow). Eventually, they went on a 6 game losing streak, which essentially eliminated them from the playoffs, despite a strong 4-1 finish, as usual.

This year, they are 3-1, the 2nd straight year they’ve had a winning September record under Philip Rivers and still only the 2nd time in that time period that they’ve had a winning September record. Have they ended their normal September woes or is this going to be a repeat of last year? I lean more towards the latter. They’re not going to be as bad as they were last year. I still think they’ll win the division, but it’s worth noting who their 3 early season wins were against: Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City, who are all 1-3. Meanwhile, they got blown out at home by Atlanta and in spite of their 3-1 record, they do have a negative yards per play differential.

The Saints, however, are 0-4. In spite of that, you could still argue this is the 2nd best team they’ve played all year. Despite their record, I don’t believe the Saints are awful. They won 13 games last year and even without Sean Payton, they still have Drew Brees. They looked pretty good last week, almost winning in Lambeau Field and they should continue to look improved as they continue to adjust to life without Sean Payton. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are actually 6-2 ATS since 1989 as favorites of more than 3. This is truly New Orleans’ last stand and in the Superdome (where they were 9-0 ATS and SU last year), I expect this proud, veteran team to put up one final huge effort to save their season.

Meanwhile, this is the type of game San Diego normally loses. Facing Denver next week, they’re not going to be focused for a 0-4 non-conference opponent. They are just 4-8 ATS under Norv Turner in a non-conference game before a divisional game. They don’t do well with non-conference games in general, as illustrated by that Atlanta game. It’s only a small play because I haven’t really been able to get a read on either of these teams thus far this year (1-3 on San Diego’s game and 0-4 on New Orleans’ games) and because the “real” line formula says we do have line value with San Diego and because the public likes New Orleans too, but I do feel that New Orleans will play their best game of the season this week and do it against a San Diego team that has one of their patented “fall flat” games.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: NO 20 SD 6

Final update: Sharps really love New Orleans. I liked them to begin with, but I’m adding a unit. This is their last stand and San Diego has proven they don’t really care about non-conference games under Norv Turner with a divisional game up next. They head home to face Denver next week.

New Orleans Saints 31 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

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Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

Blaine Gabbert doesn’t seem noticeably improved over last year. Since a solid showing in the opener, he’s 40 of 74 for 394 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He’s protecting the ball and not turning it over, but this offense simply has no explosion to it unless Maurice Jones-Drew is breaking off a bunch of big runs. Plus, turnovers are inconsistent on a week to week basis, so this offense, which ranks dead last in scoring, could get worse in the future. A tough matchup against Chicago is a very possible place for that to start.

Gabbert’s last 3 games have been especially poor. Against Houston, he had as many attempts as yards midway through the 3rd quarter and finished 7-19 for 53 yards. In a win in Indianapolis, he was 9 of 20 for 75 yards, up until an 80 yard touchdown to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work. Shorts and a huge day by Maurice Jones-Drew are the two reasons they won that game against the lowly Colts. Not Gabbert.

Last week, Cincinnati was missing their top 4 cornerbacks with injuries and using Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and Chris Crocker at cornerback. They stacked the box to stop MJD and Gabbert still went just 23 of 34 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He had all of his offensive linemen healthy in that one, so there was no excuse.

He’s absolutely horrible and the Jaguars might be the worst team in the league. Cleveland may be 0-4, but they’ve been competitive in all 4 games, while Jacksonville didn’t even look that impressive in their win. It’s going to be hard to pick them as anything less than touchdown underdogs going forward. Daryl Smith, their best defensive player arguably, is once again out for this one.

Meanwhile, Chicago has been exactly average this season, if you believe their yards per play differential. In spite of that, this line, -5, is equal to the “real” line, because of how poor Jacksonville has been in that area, ranking 31st, so there’s no line value with Jacksonville. If you believe Chicago is truly an average team, then there’s no line value with Chicago either, but I would argue they aren’t. You do need to add a human element to any calculation of any “real” line.

With the exception of their horrific showing in Green Bay week 2, they have won the yards per play battle in 3 of their 4 games. That week 2 performance is really skewing things and I think that’s not indicative of this team’s level of ability. Think about it, at least one team has completely shit the bed like that in all 4 Thursday Night games, even good teams. Arizona lost by 14 to St. Louis this week, despite coming in at 4-0. Carolina got destroyed by the Giants, even though they were favored. Baltimore, meanwhile, barely defeated Cleveland at home.

3 days is not enough time to prepare, which is why Thursday Night games always suck (blame Roger Goodell, as always), and I don’t really blame the Bears for being that unprepared, so I kind of disregard what happened in that game for Chicago. Aside from that, this team is a well above average team that has won every game by at least 16 points, including an impressive showing in Dallas last Monday. Jay Cutler, as much criticism as he takes, is 17-8 in the regular season with the Bears over the last 2 years. They’re also getting Matt Forte back closer to 100%, if not 100% this week, after he was limited on Monday Night, so I do think there’s line value with Chicago when you add a human element to the formulaic analysis.

Speaking of that win in Dallas on Monday Night, teams are 47-32 ATS since 2002 off a MNF win over 14 or more. That trend is even more powerful when the win was by 21 or more, going 28-11 ATS. I know the Bears didn’t win by 21, but they were leading by 24 until a late garbage time drive by the Cowboys when they had already given up and put in Kyle Orton. The logic is that teams that get a blowout victory on MNF typically carry that into the next week and for all intents and purposes Chicago DID blow out Dallas.

The public is all over the Bears, but I’m still going to take them in this one. Normally I love fading the public, especially on big leans, and this is the biggest public lean of the week, but I like the Bears enough to take them anyway coming off a huge MNF performance. I think we’re getting line value with them and it’s really, really tough to take the Jaguars, even at home, as anything more than touchdown underdogs. We don’t have touchdown protection with the Jaguars, so it’s a small play on the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharps lean: JAX 11 CHI 8

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still expect a Chicago blowout. Jacksonville is terrible.

Chicago Bears 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Chicago -5 (-110) 2 units

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

How can the Bills possibly keep up with the 49ers this week? They’ll be completely flat off that divisional loss to the Patriots. That seems to the public opinion because the public is pounding San Francisco. The public is generally wrong, however. That’s why the odds makers are rich. This year has been no different as the public is getting killed, especially on big leans like this one, and sure enough, there are some things that the public seems to be overlooking.

The Bills loss to the Patriots last week does not put them in a bad situation to cover the spread. In fact, it’s the opposite. Teams that blow divisional halftime leads and lose by 14 or more are 20-11 ATS since 1989, including 5-1 ATS after losing by 21 or more. It seems that outplaying the team for a half is more important going forward than blowing the lead.

The Bills did look good in that game for at least 2 and ½ quarters and looked well on their way to victory against a tough very opponent before the Patriots went on a huge run that I’m not sure many defenses could have stopped. Remember, the Bills defense, which they put a lot of resources into this offseason, had allowed 31 points in their previous 2 games and it’s not like the 49ers have a good offense. Furthermore, teams are 23-11 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional dogs of 10+ off a divisional loss of 21 or more. The Bills are also 14-6 ATS in their last 20 instances off a loss to the Patriots.

That being said, I actually do think the public has the right side this week, if only by accident. Buffalo lost two starting offensive linemen last week, both of whom will be out this week. In spite of that and the Bills’ big loss and the 49ers’ big win last week, this line has only shifted 1 point. Those two offensive lineman alone are worth more than 2 points.

They rank 1st in the league in pass blocking efficiency, as they did last year before injury, and that’s so important because Ryan Fitzpatrick really struggles under pressure. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was just 53.3% last season, 29th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, he ranked 33rd out of 34 players under pressure, by being accurate of 50.0% of his under pressure snaps. He also threw 8 picks to 2 touchdowns under pressure. It’s no coincidence that their once promising season was derailed once injuries hit on their offensive line last year.

Against a tough 49ers defense, missing two offensive linemen, I think we’re going to get bad Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. Besides, teams are 40-22 ATS after a road shutout win and the 49ers are in that situation this week, after shutting out the Jets in New York last week. It’s not a huge play at all because of some of the trends I mentioned working in Buffalo’s favor and because San Francisco doesn’t really have the offense to be comfortable laying 10 points with them, but I think San Francisco is the right side. San Francisco is also my survivor pick of the week for anyone still alive (like, you know, people who haven’t been listening to me).

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 BUF 9

The sharps really like San Francisco. I’m going to add a unit. I hate picking big favorites, especially defensive minded ones, but Buffalo could be pretty awful offensively without Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik against this brutal San Francisco defense. I’m feeling a blowout.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Buffalo Bills 10 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL)

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5 (-110) 2 units

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Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)

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Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)

Prior to the Jets’ 34-0 home loss to the 49ers last week, one NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing it’s starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and for a defensive minded team, that’s absolutely devastating. Without him, they can’t blitz as much as they normally do, which really hurts a team that already ranked 4th worst in the league in pass rush efficiency.

It also hurts their run defense some because they have to play their linebackers and safeties deeper in coverage, rather than stacking the box with Rex Ryan’s signature 46 scheme, as they often do. Normally a good run defense team, this team ranks 30th in the league against the run and don’t expect that to improve much, if at all, without Revis’ presence. And, of course, he hurts the overall pass defense. They currently rank 10th against the pass, but with no Revis, no pass rush, and poor safety play, expect that rank to fall in future weeks.

Offensively, they were already a mess. In his last 3 games, Sanchez is 44 of 101 for 547 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Even with a strong opener factored in, he still ranks 30th out of 32 eligible in quarterback rating. Rex Ryan won’t make the switch to Tim Tebow even though they acquired him for this very purpose and even though he can’t possibly he worse. At least he can run and revitalize this rushing attack some. Plus, as a passer, he actually has a better career QB rating than Mark Sanchez with a lower interception rate and he won the head-to-head matchup last year.

Speaking of that running game, they rank 30th in the league in yards per carry. Shonn Greene is so mediocre and 2nd year back Bilal Powell isn’t much better and isn’t getting enough carries to make any difference. The receiving corps isn’t doing Sanchez any favors either. Santonio Holmes was lost for the season last week from an already thin receiving corps, leaving Sanchez with 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill, 2011 5th round pick Jeremy Kerley, career journeyman Chaz Schilens, and tight end Dustin Keller, who has been limited to 1 catch in 1 game thanks to injury this year. His leading receiver in 2011, Keller might not play in this one either, after missing the last 3. Meanwhile, the offensive line isn’t doing any favors to either their run or pass attack, ranking 27th in pass block efficiency and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked run blocking group. There isn’t a single thing they do well without Revis.

They looked awful last week on the field last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn’t force a turnover and averaged just 2.9 yards per play, as opposed to 5.6 yards per play for their opponent, the 49ers. You could have given them 10 quarters and they wouldn’t have been able to score. They have 2 wins, but if you started the season over today, they’d probably finish with the worst record in the NFL.

All that being said, there are so many reasons to bet on the Jets this week. For one, look at the line movement. This line was -4 last week and now it’s -8.5. I know the Jets looked horrendous last week, but that’s one of the biggest non-injury related line movements I’ve ever seen (I know they lost Santonio Holmes, but it’s not like he was a star player or anything). Still, the public is pounding Houston and I love betting against the public, especially on huge leans, which is what this is.

On top of that, the Jets are getting completely shitted on in the media. This is a Monday Night Football game that no one is giving them a chance to even be competitive in. Not only is the mass media normally wrong and over-reactive, the Jets are in a similar situation to before week 1, when they shut up everyone who made fun of them for not scoring a touchdown with the 1st or 2nd team all preseason by dropping 48 on the Bills.

Going off of that, teams are 38-25 ATS off a home shutout since 1989, including 33-18 ATS as a dog and 11-5 ATS as a home dog. Speaking of home dogs, home dogs of 7+ are 98-78 ATS since 2002. They tend to be really undervalued.  Also undervalued are teams coming off a loss of 28 or more. Teams in that situation are 82-55 ATS the following week as dogs. The Titans pulled an upset and the Panthers nearly pulled an upset in this situation in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Texans could be sleep walking through this one. The Jets are being made out to be a laughing stock and the Texans are 4-0, with a 3 game division lead, and have a tough contest with the Packers next week, just 6 days after this one, so they probably won’t be 100% focused.

However, I just can’t bring myself to bet on the Jets. It’s a small play and it would be zero unit if I did those, but the Jets are just too horrible. Even though it’s a complete overreaction line, the line is still reasonable. The “real” line, for anyone who knows that formula I keep mentioning, in this game is -7 in favor of Houston. That means we technically get 1.5 points of line value with the Jets, but that’s fully not taking into account how awful they are without Revis. Also, the Texans are probably the best team in the league. Teams this year are 2-2 as 10+ point favorites. The Texans are 2-0. As 7+ road favorites, teams are 1-2. The Texans are 1-0. As road favorites in general, teams are 9-14. The Texans are 1-0. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: HOU 13 NYJ 10

Final Pick: Sharps are pretty split, as am I, but I can’t bet on the Jets.

Houston Texans 31 New York Jets 9

Pick against spread: Houston -8.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

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Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

We were without it for a year, but NFL fans will get to see Brady/Manning once again this year, their 13th meeting. What Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have done over the past few years is very impressive, but no one compares to Brady and Manning when you look at the last 10 years or so as a whole. This is one of the greatest rivalries in NFL history and this might be the last time (or at the very least, one of the last times), we ever get to see it, with the two star quarterbacks aging, so this is obviously the game to watch this week. It’s not just that they’re great quarterbacks, but it’s how close and entertaining these games are. We can only hope that once these two have moved on, two quarterbacks will have a rivalry to take their place (best candidate would be Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, because of Drew Brees’ age).

Both quarterbacks are getting towards the tail ends of their careers, but both are still playing at a high level. Brady looks the closest to his vintage self (actually, he’s almost identical to his vintage self), completing 65.6% of his passes for 7.5 YPA and 7 touchdowns to 1 interceptions, all of which are better than his career averages.

Manning, meanwhile, isn’t quite the same, as you would expect since he’s a year older and has a 4 times operated on neck. However, he hasn’t been bad at all this year, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, which are all right around his career averages, very impressive considering what he’s been through. He’s also done that in spite of a very tough schedule, facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston to kick off the season, before finally getting an easy one last week and having a breakout game against Oakland, completing 30 of 38 for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. New England is a tough opponent, but their pass defense isn’t very good, so he should have a good game once again in what figures to be a shoot out.

Shoot outs are the norm for these two, as you would expect. The over is 8-4 in their 12 meetings, including 7-2 in the regular season. Because of that, I’m going to lay a unit on the over, even though I rarely make a play on the total. The total is 52 in this one. By the way, since 2010, totals larger than 50 have won over 58 times and under just 40 times.

These games are normally close too. The last 5 have all been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including the last 4 by 4 points or fewer. This week, we’re getting -6.5 points with Manning. That’s the highest the line has been in a matchup between these two quarterbacks since 2001, Brady’s first year as a starter. In fact, since then, the line has never been higher than 4. In Manning’s career as a whole, he’s only once been an underdog of 7 points or more (excluding games in which he didn’t play the entirety and excluding his rookie season of 1998). For what it’s worth, he covered and won.

The reason we’re getting so many points with him probably has something to do with public overreaction, thinking that Manning is done, when, in fact, as I illustrated earlier, he’s far from it. Despite everything he’s been through, a new and probably inferior supporting cast, and a tough slate of games so far, Manning has been about career average thus far. Against a Patriots’ secondary that allows 7.7 YPA, tied for 24th in the league, despite facing Jake Locker, Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Manning should have another huge day.

Meanwhile, these teams are much more evenly matched than this line suggests. In fact, Denver has a .5 yards per play edge in yards per play differential. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way for homefield, which suggests this line should actually be -0.5 in favor of Denver. It’s important to add a human element this time. I don’t think that’s fully accurate. Denver is a much better home team than road team with the combination of their no huddle offense and the thin atmosphere and it think, at most, these two teams are comparable. Still, either way, we’re getting some line value with Denver.

Besides, Peyton Manning is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006 (excluding meaningless week 17 games). He’s 0-2 this year, but he hasn’t been an underdog this large yet and since he hasn’t really seen a decrease in production, that’s not necessarily a sign that he’s lost his touch. I really feel like we’re going to get a vintage Brady/Manning game this week, one that will be very close, so even though I like the Patriots to win at home, I’m grabbing the points and taking Peyton Manning as the largest underdog he’s been since 2002 for a significant play.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 12 NE 10

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still like Denver.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 31

Pick against spread: Denver +6.5 (-110) 3 units

Over/Under: Over 52 1 unit

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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

If it wasn’t for Arizona, Minnesota would be the surprise team of the year. In fact, I think they have a lot more staying power than the Cardinals. Despite Arizona’s record, they rank 27th in the league in yards per play differential, which I think is more indicative of their ability. Minnesota, meanwhile, ranks 9th in that category. One team every year goes from 5 win or fewer to a playoff spot. Minnesota is the only candidate who ranks as high as they do in yards per play differential. In fact, Cleveland is next closest in 23rd.

Christian Ponder seems to be the most improved 2nd year quarterback. Percy Harvin is now being used properly and has emerged as a legitimate #1 receiver. Kyle Rudolph has stepped up as a complimentary option and Jerome Simpson looked good as well in his first game back from suspension. The offensive line, anchored by 1st round pick Matt Kalil, has been much better and ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency.

Meanwhile, their defense is also much improved, thanks to the return for Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook at cornerback from injury and suspension respectively. Both were missed last season. Rookie safety Harrison Smith is playing great football and Brian Robison and Erin Henderson have stepped up big time. Henderson, who has missed the last 2 games with a concussion, is expected to play this week.

However, like Arizona last week, the Vikings could be due for a letdown thanks to a dynamic change. After back-to-back wins as a dog, the Vikings are now favorites. The Cardinals were coming off three straight upset wins, which is a stronger trend (7-13 ATS), but the Vikings are coming off two straight upset wins before being underdogs, which they should be in Washington next week. Teams in that situation tend to see the game in which they’re favored as a breather game. Teams in that situation are 17-32 ATS since 1989.

Speaking of those underdog Titans, they are without starting quarterback Jake Locker in this one. However, I don’t know if that’s necessarily a negative. It’s not a good thing long term, as this 1-3 team would probably rather get their young quarterback reps rather than potentially have a better chance to beat the Vikings this week, but Locker is inconsistent, as young quarterbacks are, while Hasselbeck led this team to a 9-7 record last year. He’s not great or anything, but he can game manage this team. Despite this, this line has still moved 1.5 points from -4.5 to -6 from last week to this week, with Locker going down, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. That might not sound like a big line movement, but only 3 games saw line movement greater than that this week, so it’s significant enough.

One difference from last year to this year for the Titans has been defensive play. An 8th ranked defense in 2011, they are currently allowing the most points in the league. It’s easy to point to the loss of Cortland Finnegan as the reason behind that, but there are several others. First, look at the teams they’ve played: New England, San Diego, Detroit, and Houston. That’s 3 top-5 offenses and one top-10 offense. In spite of that, they do rank 21st in yards per play allowed, so they haven’t been awful on a per play basis.

They’ve also been without 2nd year linebacker Colin McCarthy since early in the New England game. Not a lot of people know about him, but he’s a great young linebacker. He’s also a captain and the signal caller. Getting him back should definitely help this young defense (7 of 11 drafted since 2009). The Titans are also in a good spot as road dogs coming off a loss as road dogs. Teams are 59-38 ATS in that situation since 2008. The public, meanwhile, likes Minnesota and I love betting against the public.

It’s not a big play because I do like Minnesota and because I think they’re properly rated according to this line (for those who know the “real” line formula I always mention, the “real” line in this one is -6.5). However, I think Tennessee is the right side. I’m not going to pick them to win outright, but it’s a small play on them to keep this within 6.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 30 MIN 9

Final update: That is NUTS. Out of 60 sharps, 30 picked Tennessee +6 as one of their top 5 plays of the week, as opposed to only 9 for Minnesota -6. I liked Tennessee before and I like them even more now. I’m adding a unit.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

I love exploiting home/road discrepancies, so Seattle is one of my favorite teams to bet on (or against). I’m 4-0 picking their games this year simply following the concept of betting on them at home and against them on the road, all 4 of which were significant plays. They are 29-14 ATS at home since 2007 and 14-29 ATS on the road. This year, that has been especially true as they’ve lost twice as road favorites and won twice as home dogs.

Carolina, meanwhile, is a much underrated team. I said this last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week with them (actually I nailed all 3) as they hung within 2 points of Atlanta in the Georgia Dome and almost pulled a shocking upset. The reason they are is because of how many turnovers they committed in the first 3 games.

That might seem counterintuitive, but let me explain. Turnovers tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. The average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of +5 one week is the same as the average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of -5. They’re right around at +0.0. In fact, that’s the case for every turnover differential bracket. That’s why I wasn’t shocked at all that they were even in turnovers with the Falcons last week, despite Atlanta leading the league in turnover differential and Carolina being dead last.

Turnovers aside, they rank 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Seattle, meanwhile, ranks 17th, right in the middle with an even +0.0. An old gambling formula says to take the difference of the differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field. The difference for these two teams is .7 in favor of Carolina, so this line should be -7.5 in favor of Carolina and that doesn’t even take into account Seattle’s struggles on the road. The line is, instead, -3.

Carolina is also heading into a bye this week, so that should keep this team from falling into the breather game trap as favorites after losing as a dog and before being a dog (Carolina plays Dallas after the bye). Teams in that breather situation are normally 52-78 ATS since 2008. However, before a bye, they are 15-19 ATS since 1989 (I go back to 1989 because there’s no enough results going back to just 2008), which is pretty even. There’s also no guarantee they will be home dogs to Dallas, so that’s not really applicable. One thing that is applicable is that they are heading into a bye. Teams are 31-17 ATS since 2002 going into a bye off a loss of 3 or fewer, 14-5 ATS off divisional loss and 18-8 ATS as favorites.

Given what I’ve said above, you’re probably thinking this will be a big play. However, there are several things keeping this from being a pick of the week. For one, this is Seattle’s 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to be undervalued in this situation because teams seem to find road games easier the 2nd time around. This makes sense as several teams don’t go home at all in between road games so they’re much more used to not being home.

Since 1989, teams in their 2nd straight road game lose by an average of 2.0 points, as opposed to road teams coming off a home game, who lose by 3.1. Overall, road teams lose by 2.8 points (which is why we use 3 points for home field advantage). This trend is strongest for dogs coming off a loss as dogs (59-38 ATS since 2008), but coming dogs coming off a loss as favorites also is a trend. Since 2008, teams are 10-4 ATS in that situation, though going back to 2002 it’s just 24-17. The Seahawks, meanwhile, as bad as they are on the road, are 4-4 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2007.

Another reason why Carolina isn’t a pick of the week is that they’re expected to be missing top cornerback Chris Gamble. Gamble is not someone most bettors know about. In fact, this line hasn’t moved at all in spite of his expected absence, but he’s one of the better cornerbacks in the league and played at a borderline Pro Bowl level last year. That’s a big loss for a Panthers team that already ranks just 20th against the pass. Still, I don’t trust Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense to take advantage. I also don’t get to bet against the public if I take Carolina, which I love doing, but I can’t always do it and Carolina feels like the right side. It’s not a pick of the week, but it’s a significant play.

Public lean: Carolina (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 13 SEA 9

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still like Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 24 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-110) 3 units

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Steelers

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

I really wish these two teams weren’t playing each other. I was so looking forward to betting Pittsburgh back at home this week off their bye after they fell flat in Oakland before the bye. That loss in Oakland, as bad as Oakland is, was predictable. The Steelers have really struggled on the road, as opposed to at home, over the past year plus. Over the last year plus on the road, they are -43, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year and now they lost to Oakland.

They were also without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. The latter’s injury was more damaging. The Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Both are expected to be back this week and even though Polamalu is more important, both will be welcomed back with open arms. They also return Rashard Mendenhall who, even if he still isn’t 100%, will add some life to a running game that currently ranks dead last in the NFL in YPC. Besides, home favorites of 3+ off a bye are 44-21 ATS in non-divisional contests since 2002. Back at home, healthy, off a bye, this was a great “buy low” opportunity to bet on them.

However, we’re not getting any line value with them at all because of who they are playing. Philadelphia is still undervalued because of how many turnovers they committed in the first 3 games. Turnovers tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. The average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of +5 one week is the same as the average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of -5. They’re right around at +0.0. In fact, that’s the case for every turnover differential bracket. That’s why I wasn’t shocked at all that they didn’t commit a single turnover against the Giants last week. Turnovers aside, they rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential.

The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 22nd. That’s skewed by the injuries they’ve had and they’re a much better team at home, but this line is -3.5. An old gambling formula says to take the difference between the two differentials, in this case, 1.2, and divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field to get the “real” line. In this case, the “real” line should be Philadelphia -5. Obviously, we need to add a human element to the mix here. If this line was Philadelphia -5, I’d be all over it for Pittsburgh, but the point is, Philadelphia has really outplayed Pittsburgh thus far this season and I don’t think they deserve to be 3.5 point home favorites over them. In order for this line to be valid, Pittsburgh would have to be tied for 1st with San Francisco in yards per play differential and I don’t think that’s the type of team they are, even at full strength, off a bye, at home.

I’ve gone back and forth on this. Philadelphia is probably the better team and has definitely played like the better team this season, at least in statistics that matter (meaning ones that are more consistent on a week to week basis). However, Pittsburgh is great at home and is finally healthy. They’re also in a great situation coming off a bye. Besides, like Green Bay and New England last week with the same record, Pittsburgh is a proven, veteran team in a must win situation. At the end of the day, I’m going to take the points and fade the public as long as we have field goal protection, but if I did zero unit picks, this would be one of them.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 PHI 9

Final Update: The sharps really seem to love Pittsburgh. I was as split as could be on this one, so I’m going to defer to the sharps and make a small play on Pittsburgh. If I did zero unit picks, this would be one though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

This is Andy Dalton’s 22nd career start. Assuming Baltimore makes the playoffs and Washington, Jacksonville, and Cleveland don’t, that means that Dalton is 12-0 in his career against non-playoff teams and 0-9 against playoff teams, making the Bengals the definition of average. This week, he plays the Dolphins, who sit at 1-3 and who probably won’t make the playoffs, but they’re hardly a pushover.

They got blown out week 1, but that was Ryan Tannehill’s first career start and it was in Houston and Houston is probably the best team in the league. Since then, they’ve blown out Oakland and lost in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins as underdogs. By the way, they’re just the 7th team since 1989 to lose back to back overtime games (4-2 ATS in their next contest). Last year, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of about 8 wins and won 6, because of a strong defense. They have a strong defense once again this year and that has propelled them to actually rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 10th in yards per play differential, which is actually worse than Miami, despite arguably the easier schedule. It’s important to know that the Bengals are finally getting healthy. Carlos Dunlap returned 2 weeks ago to reinvigorate a pass rush that now ranks 4th in pass rush efficiency (the Dolphins do rank 3rd, by the way). Their strong pass rush has helped take some of the pressure off a banged up secondary which used Adam Jones, Terence Newman, and Chris Crocker as its top 3 cornerbacks last week.

Luckily their pass rush abused Blaine Gabbert, who did his thing and stunk up the joint against a very banged up secondary. Tannehill might not have done the same thing, so it’s good that Leon Hall, Nate Clements, and Dre Kirkpatrick are expected back this week (Jason Allen isn’t). It’s worth noting that Hall, still less than 11 months removed from Achilles surgery, did not look like his old self before missing the last 2 games with injuries to that same leg, which is hardly a good sign. Still, this 22nd ranked pass defense should see improvements in the future and this isn’t the same unit that Brandon Weeden torched week 2. They do, however, really struggle against the run, ranking dead last, so Reggie Bush should have a good game, which will make life easier for Tannehill.

Despite Cincinnati’s improving health, there is some line value here. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 0.2 and an old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points in either direction for home field advantage, so this line should be -1.5 in favor of Cincinnati. Of course, that doesn’t take into account Cincinnati’s improving injury situation, but it also doesn’t take into account their cupcake schedule. Despite some line value, the public is still pounding Cincinnati. The common perception is that Miami isn’t very good and Cincinnati should beat them easily. In spite of that, the line is dropping, and pretty significantly (down from -5.5 to -3.5 since it opened), so this has all the makings of a trap line.

Miami also has two powerful trends on their side. They’re dogs before being favorites (they host St. Louis next week). Dogs tend to be extra focused with an easy game on the horizon, going 74-44 ATS in this situation since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Miami is also in their 2nd straight as a road dog off a loss, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2008. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is just 5-13 ATS as favorites of 3+ since 2007. You might think that would have changed over the last year plus with this team playing so well against bad teams, but actually, they’re just 2-1 ATS in this situation, so it’s hard to say. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because Miami probably isn’t a playoff team and Andy Dalton never loses to those teams. However, as long as I have field goal protection, it’s a small play on Miami to cover and not win.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 7 CIN 18

Final pick: The sharps love Cincinnati this week. Miami feels like the right side, but there’s absolutely no line value here and this is the type of game Cincinnati normally wins. I’m going down to 1 unit. One injury note, Miami will be without #2 cornerback Richard Marshall and Dre Kirkpatrick will not make his debut for Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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