Last week: 11 (+0)
Record: 1-2
On a bye.
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Last week: 11 (+0)
Record: 1-2
On a bye.
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Last week: 12 (+0)
Record: 3-1
The Vikings are still the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. They are the only candidate even in the top-22 in yards per play differential, ranking 9th. Their defense and offensive line are both much improved. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin are both having breakout years and Adrian Peterson is making everyone who said the Vikings shouldn’t rush him back because they wouldn’t be could anyway look stupid (me). I guess you never know in the NFL, so you have to get it your all until you’re eliminated.
Studs
RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 102 yards (79 after contact) on 21 carries, 5 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 20 yards on 4 attempts
LG Charlie Johnson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts
C Brandon Fusco: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 8 attempts
CB Chris Cook: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop
SS Harrison Smith: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles
RE Jared Allen: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 58 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops
DE Everson Griffen: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops
DT Letroy Guion: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 stops
WR Percy Harvin: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 4 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, rushed for 12 yards on 3 carries, 1 kickoff return for 105 yards and a touchdown
CB Marcus Sherels: 1 punt return for 77 yards and a touchdown
Duds
TE Kyle Rudolph: Caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch
LOLB Chad Greenway: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 8 catches for 85 yards on 9 attempts
LE Brian Robison: 1 quarterback hurry on 57 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle
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Last week: 13 (+0)
Record: 2-2
I’ve still got the Packers here after their close home win over the Saints. Every year, one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs and after all 4 of the candidates won last week, the Packers are still the favorite. It’s not that they’re not talented enough to make the playoffs. The NFC is just loaded and that bogus loss on the touchception could be a difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.
Studs
QB Aaron Rodgers: 31 of 41 for 319 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 4 drops, 107.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 42 drop backs (0 sacks, 1 scramble, 3 of 6, 1 touchdown, 1 drop)
LG TJ Lang: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts
C Jeff Saturday: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts
MLB DJ Smith: Allowed 3 catches for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops
Duds
CB Sam Shields: Allowed 6 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop
LE BJ Raji: Did not record a pressure on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 penalties
LOLB Erik Walden: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop
RE Jerel Worthy: 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty
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Last week: 14 (+0)
Record: 2-2
This is the league’s 2nd worst defense in terms of yards per play allowed, thanks to a pass defense that ranks tied for last allowing 9.0 YPA. Their secondary simply cannot seem to beat the injury bug, much like last year, and it’s getting worse as safety Kenny Phillips is expected to be out for a few weeks after leaving last week’s loss to the Eagles. He was one of the reliable players in this secondary last year, along with Corey Webster, an aging cornerback who is really struggled this year, compared to his normal self. In a loaded NFC, that could be enough to keep the Giants out of the playoffs. The 9 wins they had last year won’t cut it this year and it feels like we’re headed for somewhere around there.
Studs
LT William Beatty: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts
C David Baas: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts
WR Victor Cruz: Caught 9 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 4.2 YAC per catch
WR Domenik Hixon: Caught 6 passes for 114 yards on 11 attempts on 46 pass plays, 4.6 YAC per catch
FS Stevie Brown: Allowed 2 catches for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes
Duds
LG Kevin Boothe: 1 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 49 pass snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 7 attempts
TE Martellus Bennett: Caught 1 pass for 2 yards on 3 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to
CB Corey Webster: Allowed 5 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop
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Last week: 16 (+1)
Record: 4-0
I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.
So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.
This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.
The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that. Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. They’re a very similar team to the Seahawks and could easily lose in St. Louis on a short week this week. I’ve started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward.
Studs
WR Andre Roberts: Caught 6 passes for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 57 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch
SS Adrian Wilson: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 8 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes
MLB Paris Lenon: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 20 blitzes, was not thrown on
ROLB Sam Acho: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops
P Dave Zastudil: 9 punts for 435 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 9 yards, 47.3 net yards per punt
Duds
LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 57 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt
RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 57 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty
RB Ryan Williams: Rushed for 26 yards (26 after contact) on 13 carries, 3 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 0 yards on 2 targets, 1 drop
WR Early Doucet: Caught 4 passes for 31 yards on 7 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop
CB William Gay: Allowed 5 catches for 129 yards on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles
LE Nick Eason: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 assist
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Last week: 15 (-1)
Record: 2-2
The Bills have now allowed 100 points in two divisional matchups. Yikes! The defense isn’t the problem, however. The 48 they allowed to the Jets was largely due to their offense giving the Jets the ball with good field position and then the defense quitting down big late, while the 52 they allowed last week was simply running into the wrong team at the wrong time. The Bills played well in the first half, but very few teams would have been able to stop the Patriots in the 2nd half.
The issue is injuries on the offensive line. This has been the league’s best offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency this season, as it was last season before injuries struck. However, now they will be without two starters, Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik, for an extended period of time. Fitzpatrick really struggled when his offensive line play declined last season and he’s always been a quarterback who struggles under pressure. The Bills better hope those injuries aren’t too long term.
Studs
C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 37 yards on 8 attempts
CB Stephon Gilmore: Allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 7 attempts, 4 pass deflections, 8 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles
FS Jairus Byrd: 3 solo tackles, 6 assist, 1 missed tackle, was not thrown on
DT Kyle Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops
Duds
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: 22 of 39 for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, 3 drops, 68.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 44 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 of 3, 1 interception)
RT Erik Pears: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry, 3 penalties, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts
WR Steve Johnson: 2 catches for 23 yards on 10 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 3 interceptions when thrown to
CB Justin Rogers: Allowed 8 catches for 125 yards on 8 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle
LOLB Nick Barnett: Allowed 6 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle
LE Mario Williams: 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle
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Last week: 17 (+0)
As they always do, the Seahawks fell flat on the road last week. Now there are calls for Russell Wilson’s job after his 3 pick performance (none of which were ruled touchdowns strangely) just a few weeks after he was the media darling who “beat the odds.” They’ve got a great defense and they’re great at home, but their offense isn’t very good and they really struggle on the road. I can’t see a team with that description winning much more than 8 or 9 games and making the playoffs in a loaded NFC.
Studs
RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 118 yards (68 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 20 carries, 6 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 37 yards on 4 attempts
CB Brandon Browner: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, no tackles
Duds
QB Russell Wilson: 17 of 25 for 160 yards and 3 interceptions, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 57.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 31 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 scrambles, 7 of 12, 1 interception)
RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts
LE Red Bryant: 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle
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Last week: 21 (+3)
Record: 3-1
The Bengals have sufficiently proven they can beat up on crappy teams. Assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals are now 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year. Unfortunately, they are also 0-10 against playoff teams so you really have to wonder if they’re anything more than an average team or as Bill Simmons calls them a “good bad team.” Next up on schedule is another likely non-playoff team, Miami, though as Arizona will tell you, they’re not to be taken lightly. Their next test with a likely playoff team is week 7 when they host Pittsburgh. Immediately afterwards, they host the Giants and the Broncos, so that will be their defining stretch. I’m not moving them up much past this until they look good in that stretch. Week 1 was ugly for them.
Studs
LT Andrew Whitworth: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt
LG Clint Boling: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempt
C Jeff Faine: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 14 attempt
WR AJ Green: Caught 6 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch
CB Terence Newman: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops
SS Reggie Nelson: Allowed 3 catches for 6 yards on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle
DT Geno Atkins: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops
LE Carlos Dunlap: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops, 1 penalty
Duds
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 82 yards (49 yards after contact) on 26 carries, 1 broken tackles, 2 fumbles, caught 2 passes for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop
MLB Rey Maualuga: 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 4 attempts
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Last week: 19 (+0)
Record: 1-3
Last week, I said they were better than they looked against the Giants and they showed it against the Falcons, leading late and only losing by 2. Their decision not to go for the clincher and go for it on 4th down was head scratching, considering all the resources they put into their running game, and their defense’s inability to stop the Falcons from getting into field goal range late starting from the shadow of their own end zone is troubling. However, this team does rank 5th in the league in yards per play differential and can play spoiler to some teams down the stretch.
Studs
QB Cam Newton: 15 of 24 for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 2 drops, 104.5 adjusted QB rating, rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, pressured on 9 of 31 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 1 of 5, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 1 throw away)
TE Greg Olsen: Caught 6 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 3.2 YAC per catch, run blocked for 48 yards on 4 attempts
LT Jordan Gross: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts
LE Charles Johnson: 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 7 stops
LOLB Luke Kuechly: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 2 catches for -4 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection
LE Frank Alexander: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 stops
Duds
RT Byron Bell: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts
WR Brandon LaFell: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 31 pass snaps
FS Haruki Nakamura: Allowed 4 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle
ROLB James Anderson: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 3 catches for 23 yards on 4 attempts
RE Thomas Keiser: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles
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Last week: 19 (-1)
Record: 1-3
Jake Locker looks like he’ll be out for a while. That’s not a huge loss because Matt Hasselbeck is a capable veteran backup who led this team to 9-7 last year. He might even be a better short term option. However, at 1-3, the Titans aren’t exactly looking for a good short term option. They want to see what Jake Locker has and get their young quarterback some reps so he can continue to develop for the future, so this does hurt them.
Studs
LT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 4 attempts
CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assist, 2 stops
Duds
WR Kendall Wright: Caught 4 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 10.0 YAC per catch, 3 drops, 1 penalty
FS Michael Griffin: 2 solo tackles, 3 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes, was not thrown on
DT Sen’Derrick Marks: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles
RE Kamerion Wimbley: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles
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