2013 NFL Breakout Players

Denver Broncos Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Rahim Moore

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Broncos, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Denver Broncos, that player is safety Rahim Moore.

Most casual football fans know Rahim Moore for one thing, his role in the Mile High Miracle in Denver’s eventual playoff loss to the Ravens in last year’s AFC divisional round. For those of you who need a refresher, the heavily underdogged Ravens trailed by 7 with the ball on their own 30 with under 40 seconds left in the 4th quarter. The Broncos came out in prevent defense, as is always the case in that type of situation, and the #1 rule of the prevent defense is don’t let anything get completed behind you. Play deep and don’t jump any routes. If you only allow completions in front of you, eventually the clock will run out and you’ll win. It’s very fundamental football stuff and it’s especially imperative for a safety. They’re called safeties for a reason; they are the last line of the defense.

Rahim Moore, starting free safety for the Broncos, decided instead to try to be a hero and the rest was history. Moore jumped a route on a deep ball thrown from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones, going for the interception and the ultimate icer. Not only did he break one of the biggest rules of prevent defense, he missed by a good 5 yards and didn’t even come close to getting the interception, falling in his attempt to pick off the ball. This allowed Jones to get behind him easily and reel in what ended up being a 70 yard touchdown to send the game to overtime, where the Ravens eventually won, sending home the heavily favored #1 seed Broncos home early and spurring an eventual Super Bowl Championship for the Ravens.

That play was an absolute disaster for Moore and he’s undoubtedly spent the entire off-season trying to move past that. However, you cannot judge a player on one play. While that is the worst single snap I’ve seen a safety play in years, Moore played 1160 other snaps last season, including playoffs and was overall a very solid football player. He should be judged more on those instead and have his entire body of work taken into account. He finished the regular season as ProFootballFocus’ 10th rated safety, grading out above average in both run defense and pass defense and only committing 2 penalties. He allowed just 19 completions all regular season and even in that playoff game he was otherwise solid, not missing a tackle and allowing just one other completion for 5 yards.

Going into his 3rd year in the league, I expect the 2011 2nd round pick out of UCLA to put the Mile High Miracle behind him and have his best season as a pro yet. I expect another top-10 season on ProFootballFocus from him and he’ll have a shot at a Pro-Bowl if he picks off enough passes. Sadly that’s how all defensive backs are judged by the common football fan and Moore only has 2 in his 2 seasons in the league, but he picked off 10 as a sophomore at UCLA in 2009, so he has that kind of ability (which just shows why a player shouldn’t be judged by only his interception total, it’s so inconsistent on a year to year basis; it’s like judging a quarterback on how many completions of 40+ yards he has). For his sake, I hope that happens because it’s unfair for him to be judged by one play and one play only.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Pierre Garcon

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Commanders, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Washington Redskins, that player is wide receiver Pierre Garcon.

I debated whether or not Pierre Garcon qualified as a breakout candidate. After all, Garcon got a 5 year, 42.5 million dollar contract from the Redskins as a free agent last off-season. However, he did that without making a Pro-Bowl or even having a 1000 yard season. The Redskins took a major chance giving Garcon that kind of money, banking on his natural athleticism and skill set allowing him to break out as the X receiver in Mike Shanahan’s offense, as the #1 target out of the shadows of others in Indianapolis loaded receiving corps, with Robert Griffin leading a downfield throw based offense. Garcon was only 25 and that point and the Redskins were really expecting a breakout year from him.

Midway into the 1st quarter of the Redskins’ week 1 game against the Saints last year, the Redskins looked pretty smart. Granted it was very, very early in the season, but Griffin targeted Garcon on 4 of his first 5 throws, including an 88 yard touchdown, as Garcon had 4 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown midway through the first quarter of an eventual upset of the Saints in New Orleans, where they hadn’t lost all season in 2011. However, Garcon hurt his foot and left the game immediately following his touchdown and did not return to the game, playing only 8 snaps total.

Garcon would return for week 4 and week 5, but he would only catch 4 passes for 44 yards in those 2 games, struggling through his injury and would not return again until week 11. Garcon was still not healthy after returning, only playing in 306 of his team’s 445 snaps over those 7 games, not exactly what the Redskins were hoping to get from their #1 receiver. However, Garcon was still very productive, in spite of his more limited role, catching 36 passes for 480 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 7 games.

Overall on the season, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeting 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense.

Garcon’s issue remains injuries as his foot is still not 100% and in addition he had off-season shoulder surgery. However, the shoulder is expected to be a non-issue and his foot should be better than it was last season. Assuming he plays close to a full set of snaps and isn’t overly limited on the field by his foot, Garcon could have an incredibly productive season. Robert Griffin is expected to throw more and run less to protect himself from injuries so the Redskins figure to pass more than the 442 times they did last year. Garcon could easily end up as one of the league’s top-10 receivers and a Pro-Bowler in 2013.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Fred Evans

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Uncategorized, Vikings

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Minnesota Vikings, that player is defensive tackle Fred Evans.

Evans played the 4th fewest snaps among Minnesota defensive tackles last season, behind Kevin Williams, LeTroy Guion, and Christian Ballard, serving as a run-down specialist and a pure backup at right defensive tackle behind Guion. This position is also known as the 4-3 nose tackle spot and in Minnesota’s defense it was the spot occupied for so many years by Pat Williams. With Williams now gone, the Vikings are searching for his replacement and have given Guion the first crack at doing so. Ballard served as a situational pass rusher on sub packages. Kevin Williams is firmly entrenched as a starter at left defensive tackle, the under tackle spot. And the Vikings just used a first round pick on defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd.

So how could Evans still have a breakout year? Well, Floyd is more of a threat to Ballard’s role immediately and projects more as a long term solution at the under tackle spot than someone who is going to play the nose in the base packages. Playing the run is not his strength and his role as a rookie will probably be as a situational pass rusher, coming in for the base nose tackle on passing downs. So the only one Evans will be battling with for a starting job is Guion and according to Head Coach Leslie Frazier, he’ll be given every chance to win that job.

If Evans shows himself in camp to be the player he was last year, he should win that job. Evans finished the regular season as ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle and no one played as few snaps as him, 342, and had a higher grade. That doesn’t even take into account his best performance of the season, in the Vikings’ playoff game against the Packers, when he had 5 tackles for offensive failure (within 4 yards of the original LOS on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd and 4th down). Post-season included, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle.

His biggest strength was playing the run, which will be important as he attempts to win that right defensive tackle job. Only 2 players had a higher rating against the run on ProFootballFocus than him, with post-season included, as he had 20 tackles for offensive failure on the season, also known as a stop. With 17 of these coming on 166 running plays, he had a run stop percentage of 10.2%, good for 5th in the NFL among eligible defensive tackles. He wasn’t too shabby as a pass rusher as well, as he graded out just about average with 2 sacks, 2 hits, and 4 hurries on 188 pass rush snaps.

Guion, meanwhile, had just 18 stops all season, despite playing 539 snaps. With 14 of these coming on 235 run snaps, his run stop percentage was just 6.0%, closer to the bottom of the league, 53th out of 85 eligible. He graded out dead last among 85 eligible defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus in the regular season, 76th out of 79 eligible with post-season included. His biggest weakness was the run, which is not a good thing when you’re trying to win a starting nose tackle job against someone who was one of the best in the league in that regard last season. I expect Evans to win this starting job and have a great year as a starter in the base packages, with Floyd spelling him in sub packages and being eased in. Guion, meanwhile, is not a lock for a roster spot, owed a non-guaranteed 2.45 million.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Peter Konz

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Falcons, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Atlanta Falcons, that player is center Peter Konz.

Konz was one of the better center prospects I’ve scouted, a 3 year starter at the offensive line factory that is the University of Wisconsin and a big time road grader at 6-5 315, with the balance and technique to excel inside despite his height. Konz also had 33 inch arms and help up in pass protection one on one when asked. Centers rarely go in the 1st round, but Konz had a chance to. An ankle injury sustained late in the season dropped him into the 2nd round, where the Falcons took him 53rd overall, which I thought was an excellent pick. Despite giving up their 1st rounder the year before in the Julio Jones trade, I still thought they got a 1st round talent out of the draft.

The original plan was for Konz to be a reserve as a rookie at center behind veteran Todd McClure, but 6 weeks into the season, right guard Garrett Reynolds went down for the year with a back injury and Konz was inserted at right guard, an unnatural position. Konz struggled mightily in 12 starts, 10 in the regular season. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 76th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in the regular season, allowing 5 sacks, 7 hits, and 13 hurries, while struggling as a run blocker.

However, with Reynolds set to return at right guard and center Todd McClure retiring, Konz is expected to be the starter at center this year, where he’s a much more natural fit and he could easily have a breakout year and emerge as one of the better centers in the league. He has the talent to and I wouldn’t put much stock into his rough first season in the league.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Danario Alexander

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Chargers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the San Diego Chargers, that player is wide receiver Danario Alexander.

Alexander had a very productive career at the University of Missouri, especially in his senior year, when he caught 113 passes for 1781 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, in spite of that, Alexander went undrafted in 2010 due to serious concerns about his left knee, which had been operated on 4 times. Alexander spent 2 years in St. Louis after making the practice squad as an undrafted free agent and he had some big games, including 5 games of 72 yards or more.

However, he struggled with injuries to his knee and hamstring and played just 18 games in those 2 seasons, catching a total of 46 passes for 737 yards and 3 touchdowns. After he had a 5th knee surgery before the 2012 season, Alexander was waived/injured by the Rams and became a free agent. Despite his natural ability at 6-5 217, his collegiate production, and the fact that he flashed on several occasions in St. Louis, he lasted as a free agent until October 18th, when he was signed by the receiver desperate Chargers.

With the Chargers, he began playing serious snaps by week 9 and became a starter by week 10. In 9 games with the team, he caught 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 66 catches for 1170 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Those 658 yards on 314 routes run equaled 2.10 yards per route run, 17th in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps he did. He caught those 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns on 54 targets and only 2 passes intended for him were intercepted, good for a QB rating when thrown to of 134.1, best in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps as he did. For comparison, Philip Rivers’ overall QB rating was 88.6

This off-season, he was slapped with an original round tender, which means anyone could have signed him to an offer sheet and not had to surrender draft pick compensation (the Chargers had right of to match any deal, however). Though several teams reportedly considered doing so, none did, likely scared off by his history of knee injuries and the commitment that comes with a multi-year deal. That’s also probably why San Diego didn’t slap a higher tender on him. His history of knee injuries still is the huge elephant in the room with him. They could creep up at any time.

However, if they don’t, Alexander could have a real chance at having a 1000 yard season and being the Chargers’ #1 receiver. He’s plenty talented and doesn’t even turn 25 until August. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a ton of question marks at wide receiver. Malcom Floyd is a marginal talent who turns 32 this season. Vincent Brown is coming off a lost season with a broken ankle and is still very unproven. Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem combined for 37 catches in the first year of multi-year deals last off-season and might not both make the roster. Keenan Allen, meanwhile, is just a 3rd round rookie. Alexander has the most talent by far. He’ll just need to stay healthy.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Cecil Shorts

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Jaguars, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, that player is wide receiver Cecil Shorts.

When your quarterbacks are Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, it’s tough to put up big time numbers as a receiver, but 2nd year receiver Cecil Shorts did a good job of that in 2012 as the 2011 4th round pick caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns. He caught his 55 passes on 101 targets, which is a low catch rate of 54.5% and he did drop 9 passes, but he was a big time big play receiver, averaging 17.8 yards per attempt and quarterbacks threw 7 touchdowns to 4 interceptions when throwing to him.

That’s good for a 94.5 QB rating when thrown to, 15th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, which is absurd considering his quarterbacks were Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, who combined for a 74.7 QB rating on the season. How did he manage that? Well, he ranked 10th among eligible wide receivers averaging 6.7 yards after catch per catch. Only Percy Harvin caught more passes and averaged a higher yards after catch per catch than Shorts.

Even more impressive, he did this despite missing 2 games with injuries and not playing more than 50% of his team’s snaps until the team’s 6th game of the season. He ran 423 routes on the season, giving him 2.31 yards per route run, 8th in the NFL behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. In his 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games.

On top of that, it didn’t seem to matter to him which crappy quarterback was throwing to him. In his 3 starts with Blaine Gabbert, he caught 12 passes for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Chad Henne, he caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s good news because the Jaguars could go with either Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert this year and will probably have both start at least one game.

In 2013, Shorts will be in his 3rd year in the league, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and he’ll be the starter from week 1. Provided he stays healthy, he should make 16 starts. Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first 4 games of the season, so Shorts will see plenty of targets. He’ll also see more attention from defenses and he won’t seek up on anyone this time around, but he should be fine. He probably won’t reach those aforementioned extrapolated stats, but he has a very good chance to be Jacksonville’s first 1000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Chris Ivory

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Jets, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New York Jets, that player is running back Chris Ivory.

When Mike Tannenbaum was fired this off-season and John Idzik was hired as the new GM of the New York Jets, he had a tough job ahead of him. The Jets had 8 starters set to hit free agency and no cap space to re-sign them or to sign replacements. They had to cut 3 more starters just to get under the cap (Calvin Pace was eventually re-signed) and Darrelle Revis was in a situation where he needed to be traded. And this was on top of having one of the worst quarterback situations in the league and coming off a 6-10 season.

The Jets had two 1st round picks after the Revis trade and rookies Dee Milliner and Sheldon Richardson will both be rookie starters. They brought in 3 veterans, Dawan Landry, Stephen Peterman, and Willie Colon, to plug holes cheap, which were nice signings. However, I think Idzik’s best move so far with the Jets has been trading for New Orleans’ Chris Ivory and making him their starting running back. Ivory cost just a 4th round pick and a cheap 3 year, 6 million dollar deal, but he has the ability to be a real breakout star and give them a strong running game once more.

Ivory was a real find for the Saints as an undrafted free agent from Tiffin in 2009. He made the roster as a rookie and though he was never high on the depth chart behind Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles, when injuries struck, and they frequently did, he always made the most of his opportunity. In 3 seasons with the Saints, Ivory rushed for 1307 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 256 carries, an impressive 5.0 YPC.

Now going to the Jets, he’ll finally get a chance to be atop the depth chart. The Jets have 5 running backs on their roster currently. Bilal Powell has a 3.7 career YPC. Joe McKnight is not expected to stick on the roster and briefly was a cornerback last year. John Griffin is just roster filler. Mike Goodson actually got a more lucrative contract than Ivory’s extension, but he’s not an every down back was recently arrested for DUI and gun charges. Ivory was named the starter even before Goodson’s arrest, but with Goodson’s roster spot now in doubt, it looks very possible Ivory could be a 250+ carry feature back.

We’ve seen what Ivory has done in 250 carries in his career and it would be huge if he could do that again. He probably won’t do quite that as he’ll be running against stacked boxes more often with Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith under center than he was with Drew Brees, but the Jets actually have a solid run blocking offensively line, so they’ll give him help. The other concern is if he can remain effective when getting 15-20 carries per game for an extended period of time, something he’s never done. He’s also had injury issues. However, he could still be a big time breakout player.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Rodney Hudson

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Chiefs, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Kansas City Chiefs, that player is center Rodney Hudson.

Hudson was a 2nd round pick of the Chiefs in 2011. He was as accomplished as a collegiate offensive lineman could be, starting all 4 years, making the All-ACC team in his final 3 years, and the All-American in his final 2 years, doing so unanimously in his senior year. However, the NFL doesn’t have a lot of sub 300 pounds offensive lineman and Hudson weighed in at 299 at The Combine, while not posting a particularly fast 40 time at 5.31. In spite of 27 reps of 225, there were still major questions about his ability to anchor.

Hudson barely played as a rookie, serving as a reserve guard. However, with long-time NFL veteran Casey Wiegmann retiring, a hole opened up at center for the Chiefs and Hudson was moved there for the 2012 season. The move made sense. Hudson’s lack of strength and athleticism wouldn’t be as big of an issue at center and his intelligence and technique would be big time assets.

Hudson started out very well in his first season at center, only allowing 1 pressure in his first 2 and ½ games, but he went down with a broken leg during the middle of that 3rd game, costing him his season. In spite of the limited playing time, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 23rd ranked center, grading out above average as a run and pass blocker. Only Dallas’ Phil Costa played fewer snaps than him and graded out better than him. Provided he can stay healthy (injuries have never been an issue for him before last year), Hudson could certainly pick up where he left off and emerge as one of the better centers in the game.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Bruce Carter

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Cowboys, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Dallas Cowboys, that player is outside linebacker Bruce Carter.

When the Cowboys selected Bruce Carter in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft, they were taking a real chance. Carter had first round ability, with legitimate 4.4-4.5 speed at 6-1 241 and great weight room strength, throwing up 25 reps of 225 at The Combine, but was widely expected to go on day 2 because he had torn his ACL in the prior November. Not only would he likely not contribute as a rookie, he was a real question mark going forward. He couldn’t run the 40 at The Combine and it was a question whether he’d ever be able to regain that same explosiveness.

The Cowboys didn’t wait long into the 2nd day to take him, taking him 40th overall with the 8th pick of the 2nd round, doing so despite having 3 established middle linebackers ahead of him, Sean Lee, Keith Brooking, and Bradie James and also despite running a 3-4 scheme that Carter didn’t seem to be a natural fit for. He’d be playing 3-4 middle linebacker, a position more focused on size and strength, coming up to plug the run, rather than speed, instincts, and athleticism, making plays in space. His sideline to sideline speed would not be best utilized in that scheme.

Carter predictably barely played as a rookie, but in his 2nd year in the league in 2012, with Brooking and James gone, Carter beat out free agent signee Dan Connor, widely perceived as the favorite for the job after landing a multiyear deal in free agency. Carter eventually became an every down linebacker at middle linebacker after injuries knocked out Sean Lee for the season, but once again, injuries found Carter when he dislocated his elbow on Thanksgiving and had to be put on IR. Still, despite only playing 625 snaps and despite playing out of position, Carter graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15th ranked inside linebacker out of 62 eligible, with only 3 players ranked higher than him that played fewer snaps than him.

Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Carter is healthy again, but more importantly the scheme has changed. Rob Ryan and his 3-4 defense are gone and Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 scheme are in. Carter will be moving outside to weakside linebacker, where he will play every down in the role that Derrick Brooks thrived in with the Buccaneers for so many years under Kiffin. Carter’s skill set fits that role perfectly as his natural athleticism, instincts, and range will be allowed to shine. Provided he stays healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Carter emerged as one of the best outside linebackers in the NFL this season.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Whitney Mercilus

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Texans, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Houston Texans, that player is rush linebacker Whitney Mercilus.

Mercilus was a first round pick, 26th overall, of the Houston Texans in 2012. I gave him a top-10 grade, calling him the best pure pass rusher in the draft class, comparing him to Aldon Smith, and praising his work ethic. Mercilus comes from humble beginnings in more ways than one. He grew up as the son of Haitian immigrants, but he was also just a 3-star recruit in the 2008 draft class, a rarity among 1st round picks.

Mercilus did well to bulk up from 225 to the 260 range while in college and after recording just 2 sacks in his first 2 seasons as a backup, Mercilus earned his way to a starting job in 2011 and made the most of it. He led the country in sacks, with 16, and also had 22.5 tackles for loss and 9 forced fumbles. He showed a wide variety of pass rush moves and never took a play off. At The Combine, he flashed excellent athleticism for his size, running a 4.68 at 6-4 261 and putting up 27 reps of 225.

However, as a rookie, he struggled. He managed just 6 sacks, 1 hit, and 15 hurries, including playoffs, on 327 pass rush snaps, a mediocre 6.7% pass rush rate, splitting snaps with Brooks Reed opposite Connor Barwin. He was ProFootballFocus’ 29th rated 3-4 outside linebacker out of 34 eligible and his pass rush productivity was 26th out of 32 eligible.

That being said, plenty of players struggle as rookies and then go on to have excellent NFL careers. Mercilus still doesn’t turn 23 until July and he still has plenty of natural ability and upside. With Connor Barwin gone, he’ll be an every down player opposite Brooks Reed with rookies Sam Montgomery and Trevardo Williams sprinkled in as depth. He’s expected to line up almost exclusively at right outside linebacker, the primary pass rushing position in Wade Phillips’ scheme (the DeMarcus Ware, Connor Barwin role), rather than moving around the formation, as he did as a rookie. This could very well help him, especially since he played almost entirely on the right side in college at Illinois. He’ll have every opportunity to shine and I expect him to breakout.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]