2013 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)

The Ravens have been pretty unbeatable at home over the past few seasons, going 27-4 at home since 2010. Even this year, their worst year of that time frame, they are 5-1 at home, including 6-0 ATS. Because of that, I automatically think about taking the Ravens as small home favorites in a game they pretty much have to just win. They are 5-3 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 3 or fewer over that time frame.

However, the Steelers are one team that has had success in Baltimore over that time frame, delivering them 2 of their 4 losses and one of those home non-covers as underdogs or small home favorites. For the record, their other two losses were to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, while their other non-covers were to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, a pretty good group. The Steelers have actually won and covered in two of their last three instances over the Ravens in Baltimore since the 2010 season.

Sure, they’re not the same Steeler team they were then, but they came in and won as touchdown underdogs with Charlie Batch under center during last year’s 8-8 season and that was when the Ravens were better than they are now. The injury to Dennis Pitta and the departure of Anquan Boldin have turned this into one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their offensive line and their running game aren’t playing well either. Outside of the Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith combination, nothing is really working well for the Ravens offensively.

The Steelers are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Teams are 103-71 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Ravens. These two teams are very evenly matched because of how good the Ravens’ defense is. They are 11th (Ravens) and 13th (Steelers) in rate of moving the chains differential. The Steelers’ success in Baltimore scares me, but as long as these two teams are evenly matched, I’m taking the Ravens at home as small favorites. I’m not confident though.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, non-divisional home favorites dominate on Thursdays, going 30-14 ATS since 1989. This makes sense. Playing on a short week is rough, but it’s even rougher when you have to travel on a short week. That cuts into valuable preparation time. However, if you are the better team on the road, that usually nullifies it, so home favorites have a much bigger advantage over home underdogs.

Also, if teams are divisional rivals, they are already pretty familiar with each other so the short week won’t matter as much. For that reason, non-divisional home favorites have a much bigger advantage over divisional home favorites. The Raiders are an inferior team travelling on a short week to an opponent who they see once every 4 years (because this is a non-conference game). They could get absolutely steamrolled and the Cowboys could easily cover the 9 point spread. Touchdown plus non-divisional home favorites are 12-4 ATS since 1989.

However, this spread might just be too big. I don’t know if the Cowboys deserve to be favored by this much. Their defense is awful, especially since they lost middle linebacker Sean Lee with injury. He won’t be back this week. Everyone remembers when they allowed 40 first downs to the Saints a few weeks ago, an NFL record. The Raiders don’t have a great offense, but they could still move the chains here. The Cowboys are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. The Raiders, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 64% for their opponents. That suggests this line should really be around 4, instead of 9. That’s a lot of line value with the Raiders.

The Cowboys are also in a bad spot here. They are coming off of a close road win as underdogs, beating the Giants by 3 points last week. Teams are 27-51 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a road win as underdogs by 3 or fewer. They also have a much more important game in Chicago next week on Monday Night Football, which could easily have playoff implications, considering both teams are tied at a game out of the 2nd wild card spot. The Cowboys may feel they can coast through this home game and be distracted with that game up next, especially off of last week’s big win. Non-divisional home favorites are 63-86 ATS before being non-divisional road dogs since 2008.

The Cowboys generally coast as big home favorites anyway, going 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since the opening of the new Cowboys stadium in 2009. At the end of the day, the Raiders are probably the right side, but I can’t shake the image of them going into Dallas and getting steamrolled on a short week on the road by a superior non-divisional opponent, so I’m not confident at all.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +9

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)

The Lions were sitting pretty atop the NFC North two weeks ago at 6-3. Now two weeks later? Well, they still lead the division, but largely because of the ineptitude of their division rivals over the past 2 weeks. The Lions have lost their last two games, both as favorites, to the Steelers and the Buccaneers and now sit at 6-5. However, I’m not going to knock them that much for those two losses. They were in tough spots in each game, coming off of a close win in Chicago before the Pittsburgh game and then going into a divisional Thursday Night Game after the Tampa Bay game. Both teams are also better than their records.

The Lions are also -8 in turnovers over the past 2 games. The fact that both games have even been close in spite of that is an accomplishment in itself. Turnover margins are pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis and the Lions were +1 on the season before the last two games so I don’t think it’s something that’s necessarily going to hurt them here again. Assuming it doesn’t, they should win pretty easily here. They’re still moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, a differential that is still a solid 11th in the NFL.

They deserve to be favored by more than 6 over the Packers as long as Aaron Rodgers is out, which he will be. This game is in Detroit and home field is usually 3 points, so this line is saying the Lions are only 3 points better than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think that’s true at all. Since he went down, the Packers have lost at home to the Bears and Eagles, by a combined 21 points, lost in New York to the Giants by 14, and tied at home with the lowly Vikings.

You could argue Rodgers deserves the MVP trophy for how poorly his team has fared without him. Matt Flynn will probably be an upgrade over Scott Tolzien, but I’m not convinced Flynn is even an average backup at this point, considering his struggles in the year and a half he was away from Green Bay. He’s posted some nice stats in Green Bay’s system, including 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in relief of Tolzien, forcing a tie last week, but it’s not a big enough sample size for me to be convinced. Besides, Minnesota, who he faced last week, has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Also, don’t forget how big of a game this is for the Lions. They have lost their last 9 Thanksgiving games by an average of 19.4 points per game, including 3 to the Packers by an average of 15 points per game. They’ve also lost 22 of their last 25 to the Packers in general, getting outscored by an average of 10.4 points per game across all 25 games. They have a lot of demons to vanquish and a perfect opportunity to do so with Aaron Rodgers out.

This is the first time they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving since before the losing streak began and only the 5th time they’ve been favored against the Packers since the 22 of 25 stretch began. This is only the 2nd time they’ve been favored over the Packers by more than a field goal. I think they’re going to give it everything they have to capitalize on this opportunity and I really think a big part of the reason why they fell flat last week was because this game this week meant so much to them. I think they’ll play like it.

Also, the Packers could very well be exhausted in this one, on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters last week. Teams are 4-8 ATS since 1989 off of a tie in general, which isn’t a big sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. Also worth noting, teams are 3-17 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game, including 1-13 ATS on the road, which also makes sense. And the majority of those teams didn’t even go the full overtime as the Packers are just the 3rd team in that time frame to play a Thursday Night game off of a tie. The previous two both failed to cover, losing against the spread by an average of 8 points per game. This is a near impossible situation for the Packers, especially at 1 PM start.

There is one reason why this isn’t a bigger play and that’s the situation both of these teams are in. The Lions are favorites before being underdogs in Philadelphia next week, while the Packers will host the Falcons next week. Teams are 52-86 ATS since 2008 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. However, I don’t think you can just blindly follow that trend. I don’t think it’s very likely the Lions get caught looking forward to Philadelphia next week when they have this incredible opportunity this week. I like the Lions a lot. They are also my Survivor Pick.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The 49ers blew out the Redskins on Monday Night Football, 27-6. This is obviously good because the 49ers needed that win to stay in the 6th seed over the Cardinals, but also because teams almost always tend to carry the momentum from a huge Monday Night blowout into the next week. Teams are 30-13 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night win by 21 or more.

The 49ers in general seem to blowout bad teams. Colin Kaepernick has had his share of issues this season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 86 of 138 for 1290 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.3 points per game. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 21-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. They generally take care of inferior competition pretty easily.

The Rams are definitely inferior competition. Sure, they’ve won their last 2 games by 21+ to put them at 5-6, but they’re not as good as their record. The way they’re winning is unsustainable. Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season (and one of their other wins came against Jacksonville).

After their first game of that type, they got blown out in Carolina 30-15. After their second, they beat Chicago 42-21. However, teams are 6-18 ATS since 1989 off of that type of game, which I think is definitely worth noting. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams won’t be able to consistently rely on return touchdowns, big plays, and winning the turnover battle, especially not against a team like San Francisco, just like they couldn’t against Carolina.

They couldn’t do that against the 49ers the last time they played each other, losing by 24, and that was at home. And that was when they still had Sam Bradford under center and when San Francisco was without Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith and struggling during a 1-2 start. That line was 3 in the road, which would translate to about 9 at home, which is right around where this line is. I don’t think that’s right, considering how the 49ers blew them out and what’s happened since.

The only real way the Rams are better since then is they now have Zac Stacy, who has emerged as a feature back in this off-season. However, he might miss this game with a concussion, which would leave Benny Cunningham as the starter. Sure, he rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts last week, but that was against the Bears’ pathetic run defense. He rushed for just 6 yards on 4 carries against the 49ers earlier this year and, again, that was when the 49ers were without Willis and Smith. The 49ers should be able to blow the Rams out here. This is my Pick of the Week as long as it’s in single digits.

San Francisco 49ers 34 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2013 Week 12 NFL Pick Results

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Week 12

Straight Up: 10-3-1

Against the spread: 11-2-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 2-0

Medium Confidence: 2-0

Low Confidence: 4-1-1

No Confidence: 2-1

Upset Picks: 4-1

2013

Straight Up: 120-55-1

Against the Spread: 111-60-5

Pick of the Week: 7-5

High Confidence: 18-5

Medium Confidence: 26-14

Low Confidence: 30-13-2

No Confidence: 30-23-3

Upset Picks: 24-16

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (4-6)

The Raiders may be 4-6, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their 4 wins have come against teams that are a combined 11-29. They are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. Their defense has been surprisingly competent, but their offense has been extremely limited this year. Matt McGloin had a strong debut last week, completing 18 of 32 for 197 yards and 3 touchdowns, stealing the starting job away from a struggling Terrelle Pryor.

However, Raiders fans anointing him a starting caliber quarterback need to remember that they did the same thing with Terrelle Pryor a few weeks ago. I’ll need a few more weeks to be sold on McGloin, especially since he’s 7 months removed from no one drafting him. McGloin will also be hurt this week by the absence of his #1 receiver Denarius Moore. He’s one of only two Raiders receivers who have at least 250+ receiving yards.

The Titans, meanwhile, are a solid football team. They may be 4-6, but 4 of their losses came against top-10 teams, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, and Indianapolis and they were competitive in 3 of those. Jake Locker is out for the season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a huge downgrade. Locker is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, while Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups. They have a solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty, Derrick Morgan and others and they should be able to frustrate McGloin in his 2nd start without his #1 receiver. I’m not really confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 20 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)

The Steelers may be 4-6, but they’re better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 13th in the NFL. They are 4-2 since the bye, after their 0-4 start. They started the season with a -11 turnover margin in the first 4 games of the season, recovering 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Since then, their turnover margin has been +3 over the past 6 games and their rate of recovering fumbles has increased to 34.8%.

That was predictable and they seem to have put their issues behind them, beating 4 teams with a combined 19-22 record in the process, so they aren’t exactly beating up on cupcakes. They did get blown out in New England, but there’s not a ton of shame in that and they could have easily won in Oakland as well, if they hadn’t allowed the longest touchdown run by a quarterback ever and miss several makeable field goals.

The Browns aren’t as good. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here, if it’s only by one point. Going into last week, they were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden wasn’t their starting quarterback, only losing in Kansas City in a close game. However, Jason Campbell fell apart last week, completing 27 of 56 for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. It’s hard to trust him this week. The Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)

Before the bye, the Rams beat the Colts in blowout fashion. However, there were a lot of fluky things going on. They scored twice on return touchdowns, twice on long touchdowns, and only had one methodical touchdown drive. This forced the Colts to abandon their game plan, which made the deficit even worse. Take away the fluke plays and that’s a completely different game. This is still a team moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. With the exception of fluky wins against Indianapolis and Houston (same sort of thing), their wins have come by a field goal over Arizona and a pair of touchdowns over a Jacksonville team that has lost 9 games by double digits. On the other hand, they have 3 losses of 15 or more and 2 losses of 20 or more.

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. After their last such game, a 25 point win over Houston, they got destroyed by Carolina in a 30-15 loss. In fact, teams who win a game by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more are 5-18 ATS since 1989. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams don’t deserve to be favored over the Bears, even if it’s only by a point. At the end of the day, they have a decent defense and a backup quarterback.

The Rams are also in a terrible spot as teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2010 and the Rams have a much bigger game in San Francisco next week that could easily be their Super Bowl since they aren’t really in the playoff mix. The Bears, meanwhile, are very much in the playoff mix and should be focused here for the Rams. I do think they’re a little overrated as well, mostly because their defense is atrocious (they made Baltimore’s offense look competent last week) and missing key players. Offensively, I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown to keep this up.

Josh McCown is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.47 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions on this season, a QB rating of 100.0. This is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense. However, I am somewhat confident they should be able to beat the Rams in a game that pretty much has an even line.

Chicago Bears 23 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6)

You could argue we’re getting line value with the Giants here. The Giants are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. They rank 27th and 26th respectively and are pretty equal, which is what this 2.5 point line suggests. However, the Cowboys are very banged up defensively, losing Sean Lee in the middle of their blowout loss in New Orleans. He won’t be back for this one, joining Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, who have essentially missed the season. They could really continue to struggle defensively.

The Giants, meanwhile, have won 4 straight. They haven’t faced a tough schedule over the past 4 games, but their turnover problems seem to be gone, as could be expected. That type of thing is very inconsistent and, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they are +5 in turnover margin over the past 4 games. The Cowboys have a strong turnover margin at +11. It’s one of the things they do well. However, that’s not sustainable going forward. Their 66.7% fumble recovery rate isn’t either. If we assume net zero turnovers in this game, which is always smart to do, that could easily favor the Giants.

However, the Giants are in an awful spot here as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs in Washington next week. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002. That’s impossible to ignore and essentially an auto-fade. On top of that, the Cowboys are divisional road dogs before being non-divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 43-29 ATS in since 2008. Combining that, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites, including 13-30 ATS in divisional games.

Also, the NFC East is 43-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 17-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 26-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. I’m worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which is why this isn’t a bigger play, but this is pretty much an auto-bet situation and the Giants’ defense isn’t great either. Of the last 4 quarterbacks they’ve faced, 3 of them are not currently starters (Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Freeman), and the other is Scott Tolzien. The Cowboys could easily win a shootout here. It’s a strong play.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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