2013 NFL Picks

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Texans, however, sit at 2-7 and would need to go 5-2 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 7.5 points here. The Raiders covered in New York as 6 point underdogs last week, when the Giants were likely in the six and six situation. I think they have a good chance of doing the same here this week in Houston as 7.5 point underdogs. The Raiders are also in a good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because I think the Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Raiders rank 28th, thanks largely to a slumping Terrelle Pryor. According to that statistic, this line should be around 8.5. I don’t think that’s accurate though. You can’t blindly follow that. The Texans aren’t the 12th best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA. I don’t think they’re that bad, but they don’t deserve to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone.

Houston Texans 20 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1)

In his last two games, Christian Ponder has completed 42 of 58 for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, you have to remember he was facing two defenses in Dallas and Washington that are among the worst in the NFL and he was facing the latter on a short week when they were coming off of an overtime game (teams are 3-17 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game). Washington’s terrible “stop” unit made even Matt Cassel look passable when he game on in relief of an injured Christian Ponder. Ponder is expected to be fine for this game, but the schedule gets much tougher as they go to Seattle, arguably the toughest place in the NFL to play.

The Seahawks have been incredible at home since 2007, to the point where you can almost just blindly bet them at home. They are 36-17 ATS at home over that time frame, including 20-9 ATS as home favorites, and 10-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 9-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 12 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 17.7 points per game. The Vikings are a below average team that could get completely destroyed.

The Buccaneers did almost pull the massive upset in Seattle two weeks ago, but I think that was a fluke, not a new trend. Seahawks got back on track in Atlanta last week and now get Percy Harvin back. He might not play a full set of snaps, but his presence certainly won’t hurt. Also, Minnesota is worse than Tampa Bay, thanks largely to a terrible stop unit that is allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their offense. That differential ranks 31st in the NFL. The Seahawks rank 6th, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be at about 11.5, before you even get into the Seahawks home dominance. Even at 12.5, this line is too low.

The Seahawks are also distraction free with a bye coming up. Home favorites of 7 or more are 40-14 ATS before a bye since 2002. It makes perfect sense. Dominant teams are able to dominate when they know they have a week off coming up. The Vikings, meanwhile, could be distracted as they have to head to Green Bay next week, a big rivalry game. It might not be a huge distraction, but enough to prevent them from keeping it close with a vastly superior opponent. Teams are 47-74 ATS as non-divisional road dogs before being divisional road-dogs. It’s a strong play and a projected blowout victory for the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Giants, however, sit at 3-6 and would need to go 4-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. Sure, they’ve won 3 straight, but over Oakland, Minnesota, and a Philadelphia team that has lost 10 straight at home. They haven’t looked good in any of them. The turnover margin has been a big problem, as they are -13 in turnovers, and that’s inconsistent, but that’s not their only issue. They have just 164 first downs to 50 punts (3.28 to 1), as opposed to 187 first downs to 45 punts for their opponents (4.16 to 1). When you take turnovers and failed 4th downs into account, they are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that is 30th in the NFL.

They don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more over anyone. They didn’t deserve it last week, when they failed to cover in this exact same situation at home for the Raiders. And they certainly don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more against a Green Bay team that is better than people think. Yes, they’ve seemed lost without Aaron Rodgers, but remember, this is probably going to be the first time (barring another injury) in 3 weeks that they have the quarterback who prepared all week for this game make it into the 2nd quarter and beyond.

Seneca Wallace struggled mightily in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, which makes sense considering he was unprepared. He started out better against Philadelphia, but then got hurt, which led to an even more unprepared Scott Tolzien coming into the game, 6 days removed from the practice squad. He completed 24 of 39 for 280 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Tolzien is now the starter going forward, until Rodgers comes back, with Wallace going on IR. He’ll have all week to prepare for this game.

Tolzien doesn’t have a good arm, but remember, this is the same coaching staff that made Matt Flynn look not just passable, but deserving of a starting job elsewhere at one point. They have a solid group of veteran’s around him. Clay Matthews’ 2nd game back helps the defense and they still have talent at the skill positions at offense, with guys like Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson. This line suggests the Packers are one of the worst teams in the NFL and comparable to the Oakland Raiders. That’s not true at all.

Even with an unprepared Scott Tolzien under center, the Packers only lost 28-13 at home to the Eagles. The Raiders lost 49-20 the week before. If they can cover in New York as 6 point underdogs, so can the Packers. On top of that, the Giants usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later, including a non-cover last week. If I didn’t already love Washington +3.5 in Philadelphia this week, this would be my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Green Bay +6

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)

The Bills may be 3-7, but they’ve faced a tough schedule, which now gets easier. They will probably be favored in 5 of their remaining 6 games, including 3 at home, where they’ve been very good. This is the first of the games in which they will be favored at home. So far at home, they’ve beaten Carolina and Baltimore and almost beaten Kansas City, Cincinnati, and New England. That’s 4 likely playoff teams and a 5th who is a wild card contender and the defending Super Bowl champions. With the exception of maybe Baltimore, all of those teams are definitely better than these Jets.

The Bills are also getting healthier. EJ Manuel struggled in his first game back against Pittsburgh, completing 22 of 39 for 155 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in a 23-10 loss that wasn’t as close as that would suggest. However, he’s another week healthier this week and he won’t be facing rookie destroyer Dick LeBeau, who is now 19-2 against rookie quarterbacks. CJ Spiller is getting healthier, as is their secondary, which was without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd to start the season. There’s a good chance they finish at 8-8, despite starting 3-7, starting with a victory here.

The reason this isn’t a significant play on the Bills though is because they have a big trend working against them. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here.

Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse. That’s only enough to scare me off of making a big play on Buffalo though, not to change sides. They should still be the right side. I just wish they were home dogs, even if it was only by a point or two.

Buffalo Bills 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -1

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

One of the weirder streaks in the NFL is that the Eagles have lost 10 straight home games, four off of the all-time record. Yes, they haven’t been a very good team over the past 2 seasons, but they also have won 6 of their past 10 road games. Spread wise, they’ve actually failed to cover in 12 straight home games, as opposed to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games. Sure, they have Nick Foles now, but even he struggled in his only home start of the season, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards. Most of his action this season has been on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

At this point, the Eagles’ home struggles are worth noting. At the very least, home field doesn’t provide much of an advantage for them. This doesn’t seem to just be a Philadelphia thing. The NFC East is 41-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 16-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 25-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. For whatever reason, NFC East teams seem to have less home field advantage than most teams, so when they play each other, the road team is much more likely to cover than the home team.

I don’t think this line takes that into account, given that the Eagles are favored by 3.5 points. If the line was taking this into account, this line would suggest that the Eagles are at least 3.5 points better than the Redskins, which isn’t true. In fact, I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams at all. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents. The Redskins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. Even before we get into the Eagles’ home struggles, this line is too high. Sure, Nick Foles is an upgrade over Michael Vick, but he’s not proven at home yet.

The Eagles are also in a few bad spots. One bad spot is as home favorites of 3.5 or less before a bye. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse.

The second bad spot the Eagles are in is a revenge game type spot. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 50-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Eagles fell victim to this situation at home to the Giants a few weeks ago.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a great spot as road dogs after a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. This is probably because teams tend to get used to being away from home. The Redskins’ season is essentially on the line here. They will have 10 days to get prepared for the Eagles, following a Thursday Night loss as favorites in Minnesota. They should not only cover, but win here. This is my Pick of the Week.

Washington Redskins 31 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

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Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 6-2

Andrew Luck’s struggles against the Texans without Reggie Wayne in a near loss have to be concerning. Luck completed 18 of 40 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made plays when needed and a lot of the blame falls on his receivers, but it’s a concern. The Colts have to hope it’s not something that continues going forward. Fortunately, their schedule isn’t too bad. Among their final 8 opponents, only Cincinnati and Kansas City are currently above .500, though Arizona and Tennessee (twice) could give them some trouble if they’re not careful.

Week 9 Studs

WR TY Hilton

DT Aubrayo Franklin

MLB Pat Angerer

Week 9 Duds

LG Hugh Thornton

RG Mike McGlynn

MLB Jerrell Freeman

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their wins came at home by 3 over Cincinnati, who isn’t a very good road team (loss in Cleveland, Miami, almost in Buffalo), at home by 1 over Minnesota, who isn’t good, by 17 in Pittsburgh, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, at home against the Giants by 6, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, and last week in Green Bay against Seneca Wallace. Their losses, meanwhile, have come in Washington, at home for New Orleans, who isn’t a good road team, and in Detroit against this Lions team, who was actually facing a rough trend the last time around with Green Bay on deck. The Bears rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential.

Things aren’t going to get better with Jay Cutler right? Well, not necessarily. Remember, Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate.

They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring. Coming into the season, they had lost top defensive minds Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, and 4 of their top-5 defensive players. Those 4 players have all played worse this season and the other one, Henry Melton, is one for the season with injury. Also dealing with injuries are Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. The latter is out indefinitely, while the former is a shell of his former self as a result. As I said, things are only going to get worse.

Also, the Bears’ supporting cast could slack off and ease up with Cutler returning. They’ve done a great job in his absence and they might feel they no longer have to do that with Cutler back. On top of that, Cutler himself could be very limited. Remember, he was supposed to miss about a month. He’ll be exactly 3 weeks removed from the injury when he returns this week. It’s not a high confidence pick or anything, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against spread: Detroit PK

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

The Steelers are one team that I don’t really have a beat on. Their offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. They are still getting killed in turnovers (-11), which probably won’t continue going forward, especially since it’s largely the result of a 26.3% rate of fumble recovery. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, allowed by their defense.

The Bills have a similar differential, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They are better than their record, beating the Dolphins in Miami, the Panthers and Ravens at home, and almost beating both New England and Cincinnati. Last week, their offense outscored the Chiefs’ offense, despite starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel and only lost because of two return touchdowns by the Chiefs’ defense.

This week, they get EJ Manuel back from injury, which could improve their offense. However, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% off of an extended absence and it’s not like he was playing great football before he was hurt. He’s actually still ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst ranked quarterback ahead of only Geno Smith despite the limited playing time. Thaddeus Lewis, meanwhile, ranks 25th out of 35. Not great, but better than Manuel. Statistically, Manuel is completing 56.7% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions with a slightly better quarterback rating.

Manuel is going to be better long-term most likely and it’s good to get him playing time, but, as for the short term, all you can say for sure is that he’ll be better than Jeff Tuel, and the rest of the team might slack off around him with their quarterback back. Their offense could still really struggle, even against Pittsburgh’s aging defense. They’ll need to establish CJ Spiller, who finally broke out last week, rushing for 116 yards on 12 attempts. There’s no guarantee he can do that again, especially since he admitted his ankle is still hurting him. On top of that, all of the Bills’ impressive performances have been at home this season. On the road, they are just 1-3 ATS.

If I had to take a side, I guess it would be the Bills. I’m not confident at all, but I guess if I had to bet on something, it would be CJ Spiller continuing to play well and the Bills being in the better spot distractions wise. There’s much less likely to be distracted with a home game against the Jets on deck, whereas the Steelers have to deal with a better Detroit team next week. Teams are 114-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. I have no confidence though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

Trends wise, the Eagles have the advantage here. The Packers will probably be non-divisional road favorites in New York last week and face the Giants and they are non-divisional home favorites this week. Teams are 61-85 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, the Eagles are non-divisional road dogs before being divisional home favorites, when they face the Redskins in Philadelphia next week. Teams are 47-36 ATS in that spot since 2008. Putting them both together, road underdogs are 84-49 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

However, we can’t purely use trends here because of the uncertainty of Green Bay’s quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers is out. That’s certain, but that’s about it. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily last week, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. However, Philadelphia’s defense isn’t any better and they’re probably worse. Wallace will have a whole week to practice as a starter this week and he’ll be prepared to play this time around.

That could really help him and the rest of the Packers’ veteran team could rise up around him. Likewise, the Packers’ coaching staff could get the most out of him the way they did Matt Flynn a few years back. This line shifted about 10 points from last week to this week, from 11 to 1 and the public is all over Philadelphia. That’s a large line movement. It might be justified because Aaron Rodgers is so great, but there’s a chance it’s not, at least in this first game. Because of that, I can’t confidently pick a side. If I had to, I’d take Philadelphia, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1

Confidence: None

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