2013 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

The Broncos lost their first game of the season in Indianapolis last week. The good news is they return home here to play the Washington Redskins in a game in which they should win. The question is, by how much will they win? Fortunately for them, they have a bye coming up so they can be totally focused here as 12.5 point favorites. Since 2002, home favorites of 7 or more are 26-9 ATS before a mid-season bye. It makes sense. Teams have no distractions and can take care of business.

However, I question if the line should be this high. This is one of the biggest NFL Lines of the week. The Broncos are playing incredible football, even with the loss, moving the chains at an 84% rate offensively and allowing opponents to do so at a league average 73% average. However, the Redskins are better than their record as well, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be closer to 9 or 10.

Peyton Manning should shred up a Washington defense that has lost Brandon Meriweather again, but Robert Griffin played his best game of the season last week and has been running better since the bye. He might not be fully back until next season, but he’s capable of putting up some points against an unspectacular stop unit and he’s definitely capable of a backdoor garbage time cover.

The Redskins are also in a good spot as they have no real upcoming distractions as they host San Diego next week, a game in which they will be favored. 10+ point underdogs are 42-24 ATS since 2002 before being home favorites and non-divisional road underdogs are 96-61 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites. At the end of the day, I’m taking Denver to win their 6th game of the season by 13 or more. That trend is too powerful and the addition of Von Miller, now in his 2nd game back, could give them a real boost in terms of stopping Robert Griffin. It’s not a high confidence pick though.

Denver Broncos 41 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Denver -12.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

Both of these teams did similar things last week, winning close games as underdogs, the Bengals in Detroit and the Jets at home against the Patriots. However, the Bengals are in a bad spot this week because their close win came on the road and because they are now favorites.  Home favorites are 25-52 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. The Jets lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago in this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are actually kind of in a good spot, as teams are 25-16 ATS as dogs off of an overtime home win as underdogs since 1989. It’s not a great trend, but it shows they won’t as flat as the Bengals easily could be.

I also think this line is a little off, as the Bengals are favored by 6.5 even though these teams have essentially played the same this season. The Jets are moving the chains at a 69% rate offensively, while their opponents are doing so at a 68% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 74% rate offensively, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a rate that could get worse now that top cornerback Leon Hall is out for the season. This line is at least 3, if not 4 points too high and that doesn’t even take into account that the Bengals could be flat as big favorites off of last week’s win.

The only reason this isn’t a Pick of the Week is because the Jets might not be as focused as they’d need to be with a home game against the Saints next week, while the Bengals should be favored in Miami next week. As for the Jets, non-divisional road dogs are 80-111 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, for the Bengals, non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. However, they might not be favorites because the line is currently expected to be -1 and if they were to be dogs, that trend would switch to 61-84 ATS since 2008. They could also be distracted before a Thursday Night Game next week. Favorites are 26-51 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008. It’s a high confidence pick on the Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets +6.5

Confidence: High

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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bills, Saints, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I think the Bills are an underrated team. The Bills may just be 3-4, but they’ve been pretty decent this season. They’ve had a tough schedule, with each of their opponents being 3-4 or better at this point. They’ve been underdogs in all 7 games and they have covered 5 of 7 spreads. The only game they’ve lost by more than a touchdown came in Cleveland after a pick six by backup Jeff Tuel. They beat a pair of top-15 teams on my Power Rankings in Buffalo (Baltimore, Carolina) and almost beat New England and Cincinnati.

Their defense has been strong, allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 71% rate and they’ll only get better with Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd healthy. Offensively, they are actually one of two teams to have scored 20 points or more in every game, along with Denver. Thaddeus Lewis isn’t great, but he can do enough for the Bills to win a few games going forward. That being said, I think this line is pretty reasonable at 12 points. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate offensively, giving them a -3% rate of moving the chains rate. The Saints, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a +9% differential, 3rd in the NFL.

The Bills, however, have been much better at home, covering all 4 spreads, but they covered their first spread of the season on the road last week. This is a different situation. Unlike Miami last week, the Saints are not overrated. The Dolphins, despite their record, are actually 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Saints also aren’t in a bad spot like the Dolphins were last week. While the Dolphins had a game in New England to distract them, the Saints go to New York to play the Jets next week. Since 2002, 7+ point non-divisional home favorites are 65-38 ATS before being road non-divisional favorites.

The Bills, meanwhile, are actually the ones in the bad spot. They might not be as focused as they’d need to in order to hang with the Saints, after a big upset in Miami last week and a home game against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 18-28 ATS off of a close win (3 points or more) as 7+ point road underdogs against a divisional opponent. Meanwhile, non-divisional road underdogs are 80-111 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites.

That being said, the biggest difference is just how tough of a place New Orleans is to play for a road team, particularly a young Buffalo team that doesn’t have experience going to a place like New Orleans, a non-conference foe. The Saints have not just won, but also covered their last 12 home games under Sean Payton, all 9 (including a playoff game) in 2011 and the first 3 of the season. They’re also 18-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss. Two weeks removed from that killer loss in New England, they should be completely focused to blow out the Bills at home. This is a big line, but the Saints definitely seem like the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -12

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Lions, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at Detroit Lions (4-3)

The Lions are going into a bye this week. Ordinarily, teams cover at an above average rate going into a bye, which makes sense because they don’t have any distractions on the horizon. However, the Lions are just small home favorites here and teams do not cover as small home favorites going into a bye, as teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 10th (Lions) and 11th (Cowboys) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are in a good spot. They are underdogs with no upcoming distractions, with a home game against Minnesota on deck, so they can be as focused as they need to be to pull the upset. Non-divisional road dogs are 96-61 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, including 41-21 ATS as non-divisional road dogs of 3 or less. The Bengals came into Detroit and won in this situation and last week and the Lions have been kind of screwed over by the schedulers because they have to face back-to-back opponents who are in this dynamic, but it should be a similar result. This is my Pick of the Week.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

The Steelers have been night and day better since the bye. The return of Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller to full health, giving the Steelers a talented runner and a safety net receiver respectively, have obviously helped, but I also think they are playing better as other guys are playing up to their abilities. They are still -2% in terms of moving the chains differential on the season, as opposed to -6% for the Raiders, so this line at Pittsburgh -2.5 is a little bit high. However, over the past two weeks they have 33 first downs to 7 punts and 1 turnover (an 80% rate), as opposed to 37 first downs, 10 punts, and 2 turnovers for their opponents (a 76% rate).

This week, they will have to avoid a trap they’ve fallen into countless times in the Mike Tomlin era. They are 6-17 ATS and just 12-11 straight up as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over in 2007. Of course, at 2-4, they might not overlook the Raiders like they otherwise would have in recent years when they were good. They covered as road favorites in New York against the Jets a few weeks ago, though they were 0-4 at the time and desperately needed a week. They were also coming directly off of a bye and road favorites cover at an incredible rate after a bye. It’s tough to know what kind of Steelers team will show this week, if they’ll play with urgency or if they’ll play down to the level of their competition after two wins. It’s tough to pick a side. I wish this line was 3 or higher though because I don’t feel comfortable taking the Raiders essentially straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick of the Week: Oakland +2.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars at London: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) at London

The Jaguars suck. There’s really no other way to put it. I don’t doubt they’ll pull an upset and win a game sometime this season because, as the 2007 Dolphins and the 2011 Colts will tell you, it’s really hard for an NFL team to lose 16 consecutive games. However, they’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams my these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). That’s relevant here because the line is at 16.5 and the 49ers are clearly not a bottom-5 team.

It’s possible the 49ers could sleepwalk through the game like the Broncos did and “only” win by like 16, but there are 3 differences. One is that it took a pick six to even get it to that, as it would have been a 22 point margin or worse if not for that. The 49ers could, of course, also throw a pick six. That isn’t impossible, but it’s far more likely that the Jaguars throw a pick six and even more likely than no one throws a pick six.

The second difference is that the Broncos were distracted with Peyton Manning’s upcoming trip to Indianapolis on the schedule. The 49ers have absolutely no distractions here, with a bye up next. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. I know this game doesn’t technically fit because it’s a neutral site game in London, but the 49ers are clearly the type of team that would be focused going into a bye and dominate a significantly inferior team and that’s what the trend is all about.

The third difference is actually that this game is in London. Imagine this for a second, you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, you’re 0-7, you have to go across the ocean to play a 49er team that is 5-2 and made the Super Bowl last season. You’re losing a home game because of this game and chances are the London crowd is going to prefer the reigning NFC Champs over some shitty team from a city they’ve never heard of. There’s a good chance they just mail this one in. In fact, double digit underdogs are 0-3 ATS in London all-time. That’s not a huge sample size, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense. The 49ers could also be much more prepared for a game like this because they’re a superior veteran team.

The 49ers are playing excellent football right now. They’ve won their last 4 games by an average of 20.3 points per game and they should beat the Jaguars by at least 17. They don’t have Aldon Smith, but they haven’t really needed him. Their defense has shown their tremendous depth and talent level without him and 3rd round rookie Corey Lemonier has played well in his absence. The upgrade of Tramaine Brock over Nnamdi Asomugha in the secondary has also helped tremendously. And last week, Colin Kaepernick played arguably his best game since week 1 against a tough Tennessee defense and finally looked like the quarterback he was last season. This is a scary team and should be able to establish the run early and have their way with the significantly inferior and probably completely demoralized Jaguars. They’re also my survivor pick.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Francisco -16.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

The Panthers are much better than their record. Only 4 teams (Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle) have better point differentials than the Panthers, who are 2nd in the NFL to only Kansas City in points per game allowed. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential is 2nd best in the NFL. They are a few plays away from being 5-1. In terms of DVOA, they are 6th.

That being said, this line would seem to take into account that Carolina is better than their record. The odds makers aren’t stupid. Also, the Buccaneers too are better than their record. They are 0-6, but, with the exception of a loss in New England by 20, all of their games have been relatively close, including 3 losses by a field goal or less and 4 losses by 8 points or less, which is pretty relevant considering the spread is at 6.5. In terms of DVOA, they are ranked 24th and last week they were the highest ranked 0-5 team in DVOA history.

That being said, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One is that they always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 30-15 win over the Rams, they are now 3-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game. In 2011, the year the Buccaneers went 4-12, the Panthers beat them twice by an average of 25.5 points per game. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if the Buccaneers went 4-12 again this year.

The Buccaneers did get revenge on the Panthers last year, though, as they were the ones who won both times. Unfortunately, that puts them in a bad situation here. Teams are 110-82 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter.

Third, Tampa Bay has to go to Seattle next week and they could be really distracted to play against arguably the best team in the NFL on their home turf. Teams are 33-65 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 25-51 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, teams before being 14+ point underdogs, which the Buccaneers currently are projected to be, are 4-20 ATS in that time period (2-18 ATS as dogs) and 27-50 ATS dating back to 2002. Finally, divisional home dogs are 5-22 ATS since 1989 before being 14+ point dogs. This is a terrible spot for the Buccaneers and I expect another Carolina blowout.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

Last week, I took a 3rd string quarterback in Kansas City as significant underdogs, even though I was scared, because they were in such a good spot. That worked out for me as Case Keenum led the Texans to a near win as the Chiefs won by a final score of just 17-16. This week, the Chiefs are once again facing a 3rd string quarterback at home and the Browns, like the Texans were last week, are in a good spot. I actually like the Browns even more than I did the Texans for two reasons.

The first reason is that this line is a point higher. That might not seem like a significant difference, but it is because 7 is a key number. Approximately 8% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown. The second reason is I trust Jason Campbell more than I did Case Keenum. Keenum was a complete unknown going into last week’s game. He couldn’t get himself drafted in 2012 and he hadn’t played an NFL snap in his career. That scared me. Campbell, however, is proven.

With the Raiders, he went 11-7 in 2010 and 2011 with a team that hadn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2003 and has gone 10-22 in their next 26 games without him. He really didn’t look good in about 6 quarters of work in place of an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, but he was facing two of the best defenses in the NFL last season in San Francisco and Houston in those two games and he had very little offensive supporting talent around him. He has 71 career starts so I’m not going to base my opinion on him off of 6 quarters last year. We know what he is. His career quarterback rating is 82.4 as he’s completed 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 76 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions.

He’s not great, but he’s alright and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade over Brandon Weeden. The Browns have a solid supporting cast. We saw Brian Hoyer win 3 games in 3 tries with the team earlier this season before tearing his ACL because he was able to get the ball to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron downfield and rely on a solid defense. Jason Campbell should be able to do his best Brian Hoyer impression.

It helps Campbell that the Browns are in a good spot this week, as I mentioned earlier. They are road dogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 95-55 ATS in since 2008 and a situation which historically covers at around a 65% rate, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. Meanwhile, while the Chiefs are 7-0 and have a top-5, arguably top-1 defense, they aren’t as good as their record. They don’t move the ball well offensively and they’ve faced a cupcake schedule and they’ve been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin of +11.

In 4 home games, they beaten the Texans and Cowboys by a point a piece and their games with the Giants and Raiders were within a touchdown going into the 4th quarter before a few fluky things busted things open. The Browns have a much better defense than those two teams so they should be able to keep it a close, low scoring game like the Texans and Cowboys did. Despite that, the public is still all over the undefeated Chiefs like they were last week. I expect a similar result and the odds makers to make money again.

The only concern here and the reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week is that Cleveland might lack enough focus to keep this close. They have a big divisional home game against the Ravens, while the Chiefs have no distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Non-divisional road dogs are 49-76 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs, while non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road favorites. However, since the Chiefs are 7-0, I think the Browns will be plenty focused. Home favorites who are 5-0 or better are 19-30 ATS since 2002. It’s a big play on the Browns.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Titans, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)

I have legitimate concerns about the 49ers’ offense. Their defense is more than fine once again, as opponents move the chains at a 70% rate. Even without Aldon Smith, they have plenty of talent defensively. However, offensively it’s clear that Colin Kaepernick is not the same as he was last season, at least thus far. As a result, the offense is moving the chains at just a 70% rate as well.

Kaepernick is completing just 55.9% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this season. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s barely matched that in his other 5 games, catching 16 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.

The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 172 yards and no scores on 31 carries in 6 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first.

The Titans, meanwhile, remain a solid team even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Obviously he’s the limiting factor, but they have a great defense that only allows opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate, while their offense moves the chains at a 70% rate. They were the 2nd team over the past 2 seasons to cover in Seattle last week. The 49ers are getting better in terms of rate of moving the chains differential every week, after their rough start, so I’m hesitant to bet against them, but these two teams are very even in that aspect, so I immediately want to take the 4 point home underdog. This should be a very close game and even if the 49ers win, it could easily be by a field goal or less.

Update: Jake Locker is going to surprisingly start despite injury. I don’t know how this changing things. I’m going to continue staying away.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Tennessee Titans 12

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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