2013 NFL Picks

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Falcons, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)

Ordinarily, the Falcons dominate at home and ordinarily they dominate off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. In which started by Matt Ryan, the Falcons are 34-8 straight up at home, including 25-16 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 18-5 ATS. However, they were at home off of a loss last week and they still lost to the Patriots, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have suggested. Though the Falcons lost by just 7, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1% with 6:18 left to go in the 4th quarter. It took an onside kick recovery to even make it competitive.

It’s very, very likely the Falcons just aren’t that good. I had them going 8-8 at the beginning of the season (thanks to a tougher schedule, off-season losses, and the fact that they’d have less “luck” recovering fumbles and winning close games). However, thanks to the Falcons’ injuries (Sean Weatherspoon, Steven Jackson, Kroy Biermann, Roddy White, Sam Baker), they might be 8-8 at best to finish this season. This is probably as bad of a Falcon team as we’ve seen as 2007, the final year before Matt Ryan/Mike Smith.

Given that, I don’t think they deserve to be 10 point favorites here, even at home and off of a loss. Besides, they are just 7-6 ATS under Matt Ryan as home favorites of a touchdown or more and have won just 1 home game by more than 10 points in their last 12 home games. The Jets, their opponents this week, aren’t terrible. They can’t move the ball offensively and having Santonio Holmes out and Stephen Hill being a game time decision at best won’t help. However, they have a fantastic defense that has allowed opponents to move the chains on 61% of chances, the best rate in the NFL.

They’ll be able to frustrate Matt Ryan all game, especially with a poor offensive line and running game unable to take the pressure off of him and a limited Roddy White, who re-aggravated his ankle injury against New England. They have one of the best front 7s and defensive fronts in the league and can absolutely dominate this game in the trenches.  The Jets also have a situational trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. It’s not a big play on the Jets because of the situational trends on the Falcons’ side and the Jets’ injuries, but they should be the right side. This line is too big. The Falcons are my Survivor Pick, however, in a tough week for Survivor Picks.

Atlanta Falcons 20 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: NY Jets +10

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The Jaguars are +12 here in St. Louis. No one is THAT bad right? Well, so far, the Jaguars have been THAT bad. They have been beyond horrendous offensively, converting just 58% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. That means on 42% of their 1st and 10s, they didn’t move the chains. Defensively, they aren’t good either, but they aren’t horrendous, surrendering a subsequent set of first downs 78% of the time.

However, I don’t expect the Jaguars to be THAT bad all season. They’re having a horrendous stretch right now, but I don’t think they’ll be all-time bad for the entirety of the season. Some of it will be randomness and the fact that no one is this bad forever. Some of it will be the return of Justin Blackmon, who returns this week from a 4 game suspension and could have a Josh Gordon-esque impact on this offense. They won’t be a good offense by any stretch of the imagination, but that 58% number won’t be THAT terrible all season.

Given that, I don’t think they really deserve to be 12 point underdogs here. The Rams aren’t very good at all either. They are moving the chains on 69% of opportunities, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. In terms of differential, they are 29th in the NFL. Their retooled offensive line isn’t playing up to expectations. Rodger Saffold is out, while veteran Scott Wells has been awful at center. Chris Williams continues to prove he’s not a starting caliber player, while even Jake Long has not been the franchise left tackle they thought they were getting.

Rookie Tavon Austin, who was supposed to invigorate Bradford’s receiving corps, has looked like, well a rookie, while Jared Cook has been pretty hit or miss. Defensively, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, who have been signed to long extensions recently, aren’t living up to their salaries. The same is true of Cortland Finnegan, who was signed to a 50 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s suddenly morphed into the worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing 16 of 19 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns before getting “hurt” against the 49ers.

They don’t deserve to be 12 point favorites over anyone. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Rams could easily go 6-10 or worse after a 1-3 start, given how they’ve been playing. I’m a little wary of using this to pick the Jaguars since I did it against the Raiders and it backfired, but this line is double what that line was. There’s a lot of room to work with and I don’t think the Jaguars will be quite as bad this week as they’ve been thus far this season, as I mentioned earlier. Teams always cover at least 3 or 4 times per season, no matter how bad they are. This could easily be one of those times for the Jaguars.

Other trends favor the Jaguars as well. Since 2002, teams are 36-18 ATS off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in this situation. Both teams are actually in that situation this week, but I don’t think the Rams are being undervalued and I highly doubt they’ll be overlooked given how bad the Jaguars are. Going off of that, teams are just 2-11 ATS since 1989 as 10+ point favorites off of 3+ straight losses. It’s a limited sample size, but the fact that this situation happens so rarely is important in of itself. This is an overly inflated spread. I don’t want to put too much confidence in Jacksonville, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +12

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

The Saints and Dolphins both went into Monday Night’s game at 3-0, after going 7-9 last season, but at the end of the day, it was the Saints who proved they were for real, while the Dolphins looked like a team that was never very good to begin with. The Saints obviously dominated in a 21 point win and it’s not like the Dolphins were some scrubs. They’re a decent football team. Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field.

They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, converting on 81%. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 3rd in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history.

Rob Ryan has really turned things around as the Saints have held all 4 of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, something they did just 3 times all last season. Junior Galette and Cameron Jordan have broken out as among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions in their new 3-4 defense, with Jordan even playing like an All-Pro. As a result, they are +15% in differential in terms of how often they are converting for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games. The Saints also should be able to continue their momentum from their huge Monday Night Football win into this week. Since 2002, teams are 29-13 ATS off Monday Night Football wins of 21 points or more.

The Bears, meanwhile, are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009.

I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to convert for a subsequent set of first downs 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, converting about 73% of the time offensively. This would be a Pick of the Week if I trusted the Saints more on the road, but I feel like this line should be at least -3 favor of New Orleans. It’s really an elite team versus a more pedestrian/slightly above average team and the Saints 20-23 ATS road record since 2008 isn’t terrible. This could be a statement road win for the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans PK

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Carolina was one of my biggest, if not my biggest sleeper coming into the season. I had them winning 12 games and the NFC South. They finished last season playing very good defense, allowing 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season after they moved Luke Kuechly to the middle linebacker, despite facing top-16 offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They looked poised to continue that into 2013, after adding Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short in the 1st and 2nd round pick of the draft. Offensively, they finished last season scoring 26.0 points per game after Cam Newton put a slow start to his sophomore year behind him. That wasn’t anything ridiculous for them because they scored 25.4 points per game in 2011. In Newton’s 3rd year in the league, he looked poised to have the best year of his career.

In the first 2 games of the season, that looked pretty wrong. The defense was excellent, possibly even better than expected as Star Lotulelei looked like a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. However, their offense was bogged down by poor game plans put together by Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach after Rob Chudzinski left for Cleveland. They also struggled to close games later, something that had plagued them since 2011, Head Coach Ron Rivera’s 1st season with the team. That pushed them to 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less under Rivera. That’s something that usually evens out in the long run, but it was fair to wonder if the Panthers would ever be able to close out games well under Ron Rivera.

Week 3, however, they destroyed the Giants 38-0 and looked like the team I expected them to be before the season. Yes, the Giants aren’t very good, but beating a team by 38 points, no matter who they are, is an incredibly impressive accomplishment. In that game, their offensive game plan was much better, utilizing more zone runs and shots downfield, which is how you best utilize Cam Newton.

Ron Rivera actually was less conservative with his decision making, as well. They didn’t have to close things out and that could still be a weakness, but I feel a lot better around them going forward and their ability to blow out opponents. They are moving the ball very well, converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 79% of the time, while allowing opponents to do so just 72% of the time, a +7% differential they is actually 7th in the NFL.

They also benefitted from having a bye last week. Road favorites, like the Panthers are here, tend to dominate off of a bye. Teams are 44-17 ATS in this situation since 2002. It makes sene. Good teams tend to be very focused off of a bye and this allows them to play up to their talent level. The bye should be very good for the Panthers for that reason. They certainly have the talent to be favored here in Arizona and could easily blow them out. I’m very confident they cover a very short line here.

Carolina Panthers 27 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns have somehow vaulted to the top of the AFC North two weeks after losing Brandon Weeden to injury and trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. While it’s not a surprise that they wouldn’t miss Brandon Weeden that much, I don’t think anyone was expecting Brian Hoyer to play well enough to mask the loss of Trent Richardson. After 33 first downs to 13 punts in the first 2 games of the season, the Browns have 41 first downs to 10 punts in the past 2 games, while turning the ball over 5 times (included failed 4th downs) to 7 times in the first 2 games. Hoyer’s performance against the Vikings could have been seen as a fluke, but after they knocked off the Bengals last week, it’s time to believe in Brian Hoyer a little bit. He’s not great, but he’s the best quarterback the Browns have had in 5 years.

This has allowed their defense to shine. They don’t have a perfect defense by any means and they have holes in their secondary, but they have one of the better front 7s in the NFL with guys like Desmond Bryant, Phil Taylor, John Hughes, Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Paul Kruger. Meanwhile, Joe Haden has done an excellent job in the secondary, allowing 15 completions on 32 attempts for 130 yards while shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, including guys like Mike Wallace and AJ Green. They have allowed opponents to convert 70% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs.

The Bills, meanwhile, are also playing excellent defense, allowing opponents to convert 69% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. Mike Pettine has done an excellent job in his first year as defensive coordinator and their front 7 is playing very well, with guys like Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and early Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Kiko Alonso. Their secondary has problems, mostly thanks to injuries, but they have, at least, a comparable defense to Cleveland.

This should be a defensive matchup, especially on a short week. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks and stronger defenses than offenses. The under usually covers on Thursday Night (76-59 since 1989). I’m not going to put anything on that because I hate betting over/under, especially after last week, a defensive matchup that somehow went over the total because of return touchdowns and garbage time scores. However, this should be a low scoring game.

The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup. It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week, so home dogs don’t cover nearly as often as home favorites, but these two teams are very evenly matched so that’s not a factor.

The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other, especially in their first season with new coaching staffs. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Cleveland’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. They still have an advantage and non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night. I’d be much more confident with Cleveland at -3 than at -4, but the Browns should still be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Cleveland -4

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are for real as a playoff contender. I actually had them in the playoffs last year, but I might have been a year early. I didn’t put them in the playoffs this year, but that looks like a complete oversight right now, especially since they have 7 of my top-200 players from a month ago (Michael Roos, David Stewart, Andy Levitre, Chris Johnson, Jurrell Casey, Derrick Morgan, and Jason McCourty) and their defense was an obvious bounce back candidate after allowing the 8th fewest points in 2011 and the most in 2012, with essentially the same personnel.

Their defense certainly looks closer to what they were in 2011 than in 2012 thus far through 3 games. They’re allowing just 18.7 points per game and have allowed opponents to convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 71% of the time. They have a +4% differential in this aspect. Jake Locker remains the limiting factor, but even he seems improved over what he was in his first 2 years in the league, with an improved supporting cast and his first opportunity at consistent, healthy playing time, though he’ll eventually start turning the ball over more often. As a result of the Titans’ strong play, they are 2-1, with wins over San Diego and Pittsburgh and a near win in Houston against the heavily favored Texans.

The Jets are 2-1 as well as they are also doing it with defense. They are allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 57% of the time, best in the NFL, though they are actually only +7% in terms of differential because their offense isn’t moving the ball well at all. While I wouldn’t be surprised if that continued, they’re highly unlikely to be this good defensively all season, just because no one is. They’ve faced the Bills, Buccaneers, and a disoriented Patriots team on Thursday Night. Their competition will get tougher. Offensively, they might not be at 64% all season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t show much improvement in that aspect. I buy Tennessee’s 2-1 start much more than the Jets’ 2-1 start.

The Jets probably won’t move the ball very well this week against the Titans’ tough defense. I don’t disrespect the Jets’ defense at all, with Demario Davis and Damon Harrison having breakout years and David Harris having a bounce back year. They will make life tough for Jake Locker. However, I like the Titans’ chances of moving the ball against the Jets’ defense more than the Jets’ chances of moving the ball against the Titans’ defense. The reason this is a no confidence pick is because this line is higher than a field goal and there’s always a good chance that a game between two defensive teams ends up being a field goal game, even if one team is noticeably more talented than the other and at home.

Tennessee Titans 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)

Terrelle Pryor has not technically been named the starter at quarterback for the Raiders in this one, after suffering a concussion this week, but he’s passed all of the NFL’s tests and is going to take one precautionary test before the game before the Raiders clear him. I’d be pretty surprised if he was held out of this one. Besides, I like the Redskins anyway this week and if he’s held out in favor of noodle armed pocket passer Matt Flynn, it’ll only give the Redskins an even better chance of winning and covering this 3.5 point spread.

The Redskins may be 0-3, but they had their best performance of the season last week at home for Detroit. Robert Griffin will only get better from here on out as he continues to get his legs back under him. Last week was his best performance of the season, at least in terms of how he looked in the pocket, running, and throwing the football. He completed 32 of 50 for 326 yards and a pick, with 37 yards on 6 carries in a game that was close throughout.

He’ll probably have his best performance of the season this week, not just because he’ll have another week under his belt in his return, but because of how terrible Oakland’s defense is. They are easily a bottom-5 unit and that should be reflected in the amount of points they surrender by season’s end. After beating a hapless Jacksonville team at home 19-9, the Raiders were blown out in Denver last week.

Even the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They hung with the Colts week 1, but the Colts had 7 wins by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams in 2012, so that’s not really saying much. The 2-14 Chiefs hung with the Colts in 2012 and the 2-14 Jaguars beat them.

The Raiders are the first team the Redskins will play where they have a clear talent advantage. This means they will be able to run their game plan like they’d like. They’ve gotten down early in all 3 of their games thus far this season and have had to abandon the read option and other quarterback runs, as well as their power running game with Alfred Morris, for that reason. The 2012 Redskins ran the ball 519 times to 442 passes, but the 2013 Redskins have run just 57 times to 139 passes. It’s not like Alfred Morris has been bad, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He just hasn’t gotten the opportunity. It won’t surprise me at all if the Redskins rushed for over 200 yards in this game and completely took things over.

The trends favor the Redskins as well. The Raiders are home dogs before being home dogs. Inferior teams are prime candidates for upsets when they have an upcoming lull in the schedule and/or when their opponent has an upcoming daunting matchup to distract them. That’s not the case here at all. The Raiders have a home game against the Chargers next week, while the Redskins go on bye. Home dogs are 33-49 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again and 12-25 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, the Redskins will be completely focused against an inferior opponent with an off week next week. Since 2002, teams are 61-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. They should win this one easily.

Washington Redskins 31 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Washington -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

One of the things that’s important to do when picking games is to take into account the schedule dynamic. Football is a physically and mentally demanding sport and teams are not at 100% in terms of their concentration and level of play in every game. This is a big part of the reason why upsets happen. It’s very important to try to figure out when this is a factor. I definitely think it is this week.

The Chargers are home underdogs here before they go to Oakland next week, where they will be road favorites. The Chargers will be 100% focused here for a superior opponent with no distraction on schedule. The Cowboys, well, that might not be the case for them. They are road favorites before they will be home dogs next week in Denver. They already have more wins than the rest of the division combined and a huge benchmark home game against the Broncos next week. It’s reasonable to believe that they might not care so much about a game in San Diego, a sub .500 non-divisional opponent.

The trends basically back this up. Non-divisional home dogs are 37-11 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites. Meanwhile, teams are 20-35 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. This is certainly a bigger game for the Chargers and I think that will show on the field. They’ve been competitive in all 3 of their games and could easily win here back at home.

San Diego Chargers 27 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: San Diego +2

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)

The Ravens’ season certainly got off to a rough start week 1 in Denver, as Peyton Manning tied an NFL record for touchdowns against them in a 49-27 loss. However, they bounced back at home over the past 2 weeks with a 14-6 win over Cleveland and a 30-9 win over Houston. Now this week they have to go back on the road, where life has not been as kind to them as at home over the past few seasons. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game and 17-14 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game. They’re also 2-5 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in their last 7 instances.

Their offense is still struggling to move the ball. Sure, they beat Houston 30-9, but they needed 14 points off of returns to achieve that final score. The two teams were pretty even in terms of first downs, total yards of offense, and punts despite the large final margin. They could get Ray Rice back from injury this week, but he won’t be 100%. I don’t know how much of an upgrade a limited Ray Rice is over Bernard Pierce, one of the better backups in the NFL. The two will probably split carries.

Their offensive woes go back longer than a week too. They are converting a below average 72% of 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs. Fortunately, as bad as their offense is right now, their defense seems to have turned around 180 degrees from a disappointing start in Denver week 1 as their new players have gelled together. However, I don’t know if I trust the Ravens to cover as 3 point favorites on the road here in Buffalo. All of the Bills’ injuries in the secondary, especially if Leodis McKelvin doesn’t play, make it hard to take the Bills here and I wish this line was a little higher, but I think they are the right side. I’m just not confident.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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