2013 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-9)

Ordinarily, teams dominate after a Monday Night Football blowout win, carrying over the momentum from a big win into next week’s game. Since 2002, teams are 32-13 ATS off of a Monday Night Football win over 21 or more. The Bears only beat the Cowboys by 17, but that was only because of a last second touchdown by Joseph Randle that didn’t matter at all. Even though teams that win by 17 to 20 points are 11-10 ATS the following week, I think we might be able to still apply the logic here. I don’t think a meaningless last second touchdown will kill all of the Bears’ momentum. On top of that, teams that lead by 21 or more after 3 quarters of a Monday Night Football game are 21-12 ATS the following week and the Bears led 35-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

However, while that meaningless late second probably didn’t kill the Bears’ momentum, bringing back Jay Cutler and sending Josh McCown to the bench might. McCown was amazing in 5 starts in place of Cutler this season. His 3-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story considering how bad the Bears’ defense has been this season. I kept waiting for him to shit the bed and remind us why he was a 34-year-old career backup who last posted a quarterback rating of over 70 in 2006, but he never did, bringing back flashes of Rich Gannon. All in all, he completed 66.8% of his passes for an average of 8.22 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and an interception.

Jay Cutler hasn’t been bad this season, but his numbers actually pale in comparison to McCown’s. Cutler is completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.20 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season. Even worse, he might not be 100% in his first game back from injury, like against Detroit when he completed 21 of 40 for 250 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. On top of that, his teammates could slack off knowing their starting quarterback is back, especially for an opponent like the Browns. We’re also not getting any line value with the Bears anymore, as they are 1.5 point favorites here in Cleveland.

You might look at this line and think “how can the Bears possibly not win by 2 or more in Cleveland?” However, they lost in Minnesota just two weeks ago. Their offense has been supporting this team, moving the chains at a 75.94% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 75.60% rate. The Browns don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but they should have some success against this Chicago defense, so if Chicago’s offense doesn’t do what it’s been doing lately against a sneaky good Cleveland defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.31% rate, the Bears could easily lose this game. I have this game calculated at a straight up pick using rate of moving the chains, and that’s before you even get to the Bears’ quarterback switch.

The Bears are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs in Philadelphia next week. They could be distracted. Teams are 32-52 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Browns aren’t in a great spot either, as they will be underdogs once again in New York against the Jets next week, as non-divisional home underdogs are 93-112 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, but it’s not the same. The Browns could also be flat off of last week’s close loss in New England, but I don’t have any trend suggesting they would be. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bears and hoping their offense can carry them and their momentum from last week will carry over, but I’m not confident.

Chicago Bears 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Eagles, Uncategorized, Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1)

Earlier this season, a stat was floated around that the Eagles hadn’t won in 10 straight home games. They ended their home struggles over their recent three game home stand, by winning all 3, but what got lost in that was how good the Eagles were on the road. Since the start of last season, they are 8-6 ATS on the road. That doesn’t sound like much, but consider they are 2-13 ATS at home over that same time period. This year, now that they are actually good, they are 5-1 ATS on the road, with the one loss coming in Denver.

Nick Foles has been incredible on the road this season. He’s been incredible everywhere, but he’s been especially incredible on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.09 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles have won all 4 road games in which Nick Foles has led them in passing attempts by an average of 17.3 points per game. Overall, the Eagles are 7-1 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

At first glance, it doesn’t look like we’re getting any line value with the Eagles as 5.5 point favorites here in Minnesota. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -6.12% that ranks 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 4.

However, that doesn’t take into account how good the Eagles have been since Foles took over, how much of a non-factor (at the very least) going on the road is for Foles and the Eagles, and the fact that the Vikings could be without Adrian Peterson in this one. I shouldn’t need to tell you how important he is to this team, but the Vikings are 1-4 ATS without him in his career, with the exclusion of his rookie season.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Cincinnati next week and might not be focused enough to keep this one close and cover. Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010 and the Vikings could definitely be double digit underdogs in Cincinnati next week, considering they were touchdown underdogs in Baltimore last week. This would be a bigger play if the public weren’t all over Philadelphia, but they should be the right side. I’m somewhat confident as long as this line stays below 6. Philadelphia is also my Survivor Pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -5.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4)

At first glance, the Panthers definitely seem like the right side. By all measures, the Panthers are a top-5 team and the Jets are probably a bottom-5 team. The Panthers’ +110 point differential is 4th in the NFL behind the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs. The Jets’ -111 point differential is 3rd worst in the NFL ahead of Washington and Jacksonville. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers rank 3rd and the Jets rank 26th, including 27th in weighted DVOA.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Panthers move the chains at a 76.19% rate, as opposed to 66.57% for their opponents, a 9.62% differential that is actually the best in the NFL. The Jets, meanwhile, come in next to last, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.91% rate, while only moving them at a league worst 62.37% rate, a differential of -6.55%. Given that, this line is actually too small at 11. I have this line calculated at 19, which makes sense if the Panthers are a top level team and the Jets are a bottom level team.

The Jets won last week, but needing a blocked punt return touchdown to beat the Raiders at home by 10 is nothing to write home about. The Jets also have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere, part of why the Jets are moving the chains at a league worst rate and have a league worst 18 offensive touchdowns.

However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season. He’s completed 55.5% of his passes for an average of 6.65 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 1 touchdown, and 12 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 21.4 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. The Jets are a terrible team, especially on the road.

The Panthers have done a great job of blowing out bottom level teams since the start of the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era. They haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-0 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, winning by an average of 20.2 points per game. The Panthers’ defense might be the best in the NFL, allowing 16 offensive touchdowns all season, with 4 of those coming in the Superdome last week. They should completely befuddle the Jets’ dysfunctional offense. I’d actually be shocked if the Jets got out of single digits offensively.

However, there are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, it’s possible that the Panthers overlook the Jets with a rematch against the Saints coming up next week. Two, the Jets, meanwhile, have no distractions here that would prevent them from covering this spread, as they host the lowly Browns next week. Teams are 49-32 ATS as double digit underdogs before being favorites since 2002, while non-divisional road dogs are 100-65 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. The Panthers should still be the right side and get a blowout victory, but I’m not really confident or anything.

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Jets 6

Pick against spread: Carolina -11

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-11) at Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

The Texans fired Head Coach Gary Kubiak last week. They probably won’t give any effort this week right? That seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Colts as 6 point favorites here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always win in the long run, especially when the public is wrong. I don’t think the Texans firing Kubiak last week will really negatively affect them this week. If anything, it might help them as 6 of the last 8 teams to fire their head coach covered the following week. That’s a small sample size, but definitely seems to disprove the notion that teams who fire their Head Coach show no effort the following week. These are still professional football players and they are now playing to impress a new coaching staff and possibly a new team.

The Texans have shown they’ll get up for important games, almost knocking off both the Patriots and these Colts in recent weeks. The Colts are also in freefall, with a -59 point differential in their last 6 games since the bye. For comparison’s sake, the “lowly” Texans have a point differential of just -28 over their past 6 games since the bye. The Colts are not as good as their record, while the Texans are not as bad as their record.

The Colts got off to a great start to their season, with wins over Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver, but have been terrible of late, as I alluded to in the last paragraph. A lot of people are blaming this on the absence of Reggie Wayne and that has something to do with it, but he’s just one wide receiver. It’s hard to blame everything, including the defense’s ineptitude, on his absence. More likely, the Colts are just regressing back to their 2012 ways, after a fluky strong start to this season.

Last season, they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse to win 11 games, thanks to terrible defense and offensive line play. I think they’re probably still better this season than last season, but they’re still not as good as their current 8-5 record would suggest. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have one win by more than 8 points (over Jacksonville), have a negative point differential, and rank 17th in DVOA, including 19th in weighted DVOA.

The Texans, meanwhile, are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less and haven’t lost by more than a touchdown since week 6. The Texans might not win this game, but they could keep it close once again with a Colts team that has almost exclusively won their games by a small margin this season. That’s relevant to a game with a 6 point line. The Texans have also been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent.

In terms of purely rate of moving the chains, the Texans rank 18th, moving them at a 68.59% rate, as opposed to 69.59% for their opponents. The Colts, meanwhile, actually rank 19th, moving them at a 72.36% rate, as opposed to 73.54% for their opponents. I don’t think the Texans are a better team than the Colts and you can’t blindly follow that statistic, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense considering both of these teams’ tendencies to play close games and be on opposite sides of them. Finally, the Texans are in a good spot as underdogs on an 8+ game losing streak. Teams are 53-30 ATS in that spot since 1989 as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs.

There three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Texans. One, the Texans have the Broncos up next. I have a strong feeling the Texans will bring their “A game” this week for their divisional rival, but they could be distracted with Denver coming to town next week. Teams are 35-66 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Texans almost definitely will be next week. They might not be focused enough to keep this one close.

Two, Andrew Luck is 9-0 ATS off of a loss in his career, which is something to take notice of. However, he has only once been favored by more than 3.5 points in that scenario, a 7 point win against an eventual 2-14 Chiefs team last year as 6.5 point favorites on the road. The third and final reason is just the uncertainty surrounding the Texans after losing Gary Kubiak last week. They might be able to bring their “A game,” in spite of that, but there are no guarantees. The Texans definitely seem like the right side, but I can’t be terribly confident.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)

The Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5, including 3 straight, which somehow is tied for the losing winning streak in the AFC and the 2nd longest in the NFL behind only Philadelphia (5 games). How can they be underdogs at home against the Bills right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Jaguars as a public underdog. I love fading the public at any chance I get, as long as it makes sense, but I especially love it when it’s a public underdog. Whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. Check out the latest NFL free bets.

I especially love it when the public is wrong about loving the underdog. Sure, the Jaguars have 4 wins, the same amount as the Bills, but I’d still argue this is the worst team in the NFL. There’s a reason they are home underdogs here. All 4 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, while all 9 of their losses came by double digits. Their point differential of -171 is still by far the worst in the NFL, with only Washington (-128) coming close. They are still dead last in DVOA and by a significant margin over 31st ranked Oakland. Even in weighted DVOA, which weighs their more recent successes higher, they are still dead last, though the gap is closer.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, they are also dead last, as they move them at a 63.14% rate, as opposed to 75.70% for their opponents, a -12.56% differential. No one else has a differential worse than -6.55% (New York Jets). They may have 4 wins, but I don’t think they would have defeated any of those teams on a neutral field 51 times out of 100, including Houston, who they beat twice. I don’t think there’s any team in the NFL they’d defeat 51 times out of 100. Making matters worse, Maurice Jones-Drew, arguably their best offensive player, could be out for this one.

Not only do the Jaguars not deserve to be favorites, as the public thinks, but we’re actually getting significant line value with the Bills here. This line is too small. The Bills rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 65.35% rate, as opposed to 68.16% for their opponents, a differential of -2.81%. That suggests this line should be around 6.5 and 7, instead of 1, and that doesn’t even take into account Maurice Jones-Drew’s potential absence or any situational factors.

The Jaguars are also in a bad situation as home dogs before being home dogs, which they almost definitely will be next week with Tennessee coming to town, as the odds makers rightfully don’t respect them. Teams are 68-90 ATS in that spot since 2002. Even worse, they will probably be home underdogs of more than 3, considering they are underdogs of 1 for Buffalo, they were underdogs of 3.5 for Houston, and they were underdogs of 12 in Tennessee a few weeks ago. Teams are 35-66 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012.

They wouldn’t be focused enough to pull this upset even if they were good enough, which they aren’t. I’m just worried that the Bills could be a little distracted by Miami coming to town next week. Teams are 17-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs, which they could be next week. However, they also might not be and I like the Bills enough anyway. We’re also talking about a very small road favorite before being a very small home underdog (if they are). Buffalo essentially just needs to win straight up here so I have a good deal of confidence in them.

Buffalo Bills 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Buffalo -1

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6)

The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball well even without Gronkowski in the lineup at times. Remember, they beat the Saints without him earlier this season and last week Tom Brady led two late touchdown drives without Gronk and completed 32 of 52 for 418 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception in the win over Cleveland.

Yes, they needed a miracle to comeback in that game, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle by 2, which only happens about 17.7% of the time. I don’t expect them to make a habit of losing the turnover battle, as that type of thing is very inconsistent and the Patriots are historically one of the best at consistently winning the turnover battle over the past decade.

The Patriots easily won the first down battle last week 30 to 24 and punted just 5 times, as opposed 6 for Cleveland. Having Shane Vereen, who they didn’t have the first time Gronk was out, is going to be very important as he’s turned into their version of Darren Sproles. He caught 12 passes for 153 yards in the win over Cleveland and will be a matchup nightmare for the Dolphins and their terrible coverage linebackers (neither Dannell Ellerbe nor Philip Wheeler have panned out as free agent signings).

The Patriots can definitely still turn it on from time to time even without Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have them so prepared for key situations. I think this is a key situation for the Patriots. Tom Brady has had to hear about how their season is over without Rob Gronkowski all week so he could easily go into pissed off mode, which he does like no one else, except for maybe Peyton Manning (Oh, I’m bad in the cold? Okay. Thanks. Bye). After two less than stellar performances by this team, I expect a very strong effort and for them to not appear to miss Gronk, at least for this week.

The Patriots have been a covering machine with Tom Brady under center when they are not favored by 3 or more points. With Brady under center, they are 41-16 ATS in his career as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer, as they are here. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty this season, but they’ve been winning, just like they have throughout Tom Brady’s career. It might not be pretty here. Miami is a decent football team, but any time I can get Tom Brady in a situation where he essentially just needs to win, it’s pretty much an auto bet. The fact that we might be getting pissed off Tom Brady this week is just a cherry on top.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: High

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Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10)

What’s reportedly happening in Washington between Head Coach Mike Shanahan and Owner Dan Snyder is one of the most dysfunctional things that has happened between a head coach and Owner in a long while. Shanahan has benched Robert Griffin and will be shutting him down for the season, leaving the team with Kirk Cousins as the starter and Rex Grossman as the backup going forward. That much is known. What’s also being reported is that the reason Shanahan is doing this is out of spite to owner Dan Snyder in an attempt to get fired.

Snyder wants Shanahan to quit so he wouldn’t have to pay him his $7 million dollar salary for 2014, but Shanahan wants that money (possibly knowing this is the end of his career as an NFL head coach) so he is standing his ground and trying to get himself fired. This is despite the fact that he reportedly thought about quitting last season because his relationship with Snyder had broken down and only didn’t because Griffin got hurt. Ironically, the guys at ESPN floated around the idea of benching Robert Griffin for Kirk Cousins as a legitimate idea a few weeks ago and now Shanahan is doing exactly that out of sabotage. Great job guys.

If it’s true, it’s obviously a very dysfunctional situation, but even if it’s not true, Kirk Cousins is going to start this one here. Cousins is a downgrade over Griffin, who wasn’t having that bad of a season. He wasn’t playing at the level he was at last year because of an ACL injury, an off-season for the league to adjust, and an unsustainable interception rate and rate of fumbles recovered. However, he was still completing 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, with 489 rushing yards on 86 carries. The Redskins offense, moving the chains at a solid 71.73% rate, has been the strength of the team. Their defense is just allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.60% rate.

Cousins could have a good game though. He’s definitely flashed in limited action in relief of Griffin thus far in his two year career, but overall his numbers have left something to be desired, as he’s completing 61.6% of his passes for 7.89 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He hasn’t done enough to prove the league wrong for letting him fall to the 4th round yet. However, Atlanta’s defense is almost as bad as Washington’s, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.87% rate, so Cousins could have some success. He’ll also be able to lean on Alfred Morris against the Falcons’ putrid run defense.

Given that, this line seems too high. This line has actually shifted a ridiculous 4.5 points from this week to last week, as the early line had Atlanta favored by 2.5, but now they are favored by 7 points and the public is still all over them. That’s significant as it passed the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6 all the way to the key number of 7. On average, about 25% of games are decided by 3-7 points, so that line movement is much more significant than the public seems to realize. A line will only shift that much if a top level quarterback gets injured. I don’t think that line movement is valid.

Yes, I guess Griffin is “injured,” but I don’t think the downgrade from him to Cousins is significant enough for the line to shift that much. The dysfunction surrounding the franchise is also a factor, but, at the end of the day, the individual players care more about proving themselves on the field for the new coaching staff and maybe for new teams in 2014 than they do about bickering between the owner and the head coach.

I think the main factor for the line movement was Washington’s blowout loss at home to Kansas City last week, as they lost 45-10. However, it wasn’t as bad as that would suggest as the Chiefs scored 2 touchdowns on returns. That’s inconsistent and the Redskins were actually much more competitive in terms of first downs (20 to 13 Kansas City) and yards (346 to 257 Washington), than the final score would suggest.

Actually, the fact that they got blown out last week makes it more likely that they’ll cover the spread this week. Teams are 44-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think all three are definitely going to be true this week.

Starting with undervalued, I already mentioned the huge line movement, but the fact that the Redskins are underdogs of 6 or more here is very relevant. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Falcons, however, sit at 3-10 and cannot possibly finish better than 6-10. In spite of that, they are still favored by a touchdown. For what it’s worth, the Falcons are the first 3-10 teams favored by more than 6 points as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, the Falcons have just three home victories of more than a touchdown over the past two seasons combined and that includes last season when they went 13-3. Of those three wins, only two came by more than a touchdown and they haven’t won all season by more than 8 points.

Now going onto overlooked, it definitely makes sense that the Falcons would overlook a dysfunctional team like the Redskins this week, especially with a trip to San Francisco and a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game on the schedule next week. The Falcons will almost definitely be underdogs of 10 or more in San Francisco next week and teams tend to be distracted and struggle to cover the spread before being double digit underdogs.

Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. Going off of that, teams are 9-26 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 7 or more before being double digit underdogs. Atlanta has proven they’ll get up for big games even in the midst of their disappointing season, almost knocking off New Orleans a few weeks ago. However, they also don’t seem to put up a ton of effort for lesser opponents, getting blown out by Tampa Bay, losing in Green Bay to Matt Flynn, and barely beating the Bills on essentially a neutral field, to go with that New Orleans game in their last 4 game stretch. With the biggest game remaining on their schedule coming up next week, I’d be shocked if they brought their “A game” for Washington this week.

Finally, going onto embarrassed, I think this one is pretty self-explanatory and I think the Redskins’ level of embarrassment right now as professional football players will allow them to play as well as they can, despite what’s going on between Shanahan and Snyder. Their “A game” isn’t very good anymore, but it’s still good enough for them to keep it close with a mediocre at best Atlanta team that almost definitely won’t have their A game. This would be my Pick of the Week if Griffin were playing or if I trusted Cousins more, but there’s too much stuff going on in Washington’s favor this week for me to not make them a high confidence pick at the very least.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8)

One thing people who make picks way too often fail to do is look at who the team plays next. In this case, the Cardinals play arguably the best team in the NFL next week when they go to Seattle, while the Titans play arguably the worst team in the NFL next week when they go to Jacksonville. That matters. The Cardinals could easily not be focused here for the non-conference Titans when a trip to divisional Seattle for one of the biggest games of the season is on deck. Teams are 36-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. Making matters worse, they face San Francisco the following week. Those two games are going to be so much more important for this team.

The Titans, meanwhile, have no distractions with a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams usually cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, going 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more. It might not seem like the Titans will be favored by more than a field goal in Jacksonville, but, remember, they were favored by 12 points at home over the Jaguars a few weeks ago. On top of that, the Texans were favored by 3.5 points in Jacksonville last week and the Bills are favored by 2 points there this week. The odds makers don’t have a lot of respect for the Jaguars (and rightfully so).

Even if, for whatever reason, they don’t end up being favored by that much in Jacksonville, they’re still in a very good spot simply because they will be road favorites of some amount in Jacksonville next week. Non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road favorites cover at one of the highest rates I’ve ever seen, going 41-11 ATS since 1989.

The lowly Texans covered in this situation two weeks ago against the Patriots, before going to Jacksonville, where they lost. The Titans are in the same situation. The odds makers won a lot of money with that one as the public was all over New England. The same thing is true here. Combining the situation the Cardinals are in and the one the Titans are in, teams are 13-5 ATS since 1989 as home underdogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

This line is a little big anyway. I don’t understand how the Cardinals are giving a field goal to the Titans in any situation, let alone this one. The Cardinals are a good football team, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 68.41% for their opponents, but the Titans are also pretty decent, moving the chains at a 70.76% rate, as opposed to 71.67% for their opponents. The Cardinals are 8th in differential, while the Titans are 17th. That suggests this line should be around 1, at most, in favor of Arizona.

This line suggests the Cardinals would be favored by 9 at home. Last week, the Cardinals were favored by 6 over St. Louis at home. The Rams are not 3 points better than the Titans. The Titans were favored by 3 in St. Louis a few weeks ago and covered in a touchdown victory. The Cardinals also aren’t as good on the road as at home. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and their only wins were against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, who each started the season 0-8. As long as this line is 3, giving us field goal protection, Tennessee is my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7)

Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 8.50 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while leading the Broncos to 42.3 points per game. The Broncos have surpassed 35 points per game in 6 of 7 home games this season, with the exception being against a Kansas City defense that was the best in the NFL in points per game allowed at that point, when the Broncos “only” hung 27.

As a result, the Broncos have won all 7 home games by an average of 20.43 points per game and they’ve covered in every game except for one, when they were 27 point favorites over Jacksonville, the largest line in NFL history, and “only” won by 16. They’ve also won every game by at least 10 points, with the closest being against a solid Kansas City team, which is very relevant considering this line is at 10. Their home dominance is nothing new as they are 12-4 ATS at home since Peyton Manning came to town last season, with one of those ATS losses being in the playoff game to Baltimore.

The Broncos will essentially be able to name their point total against San Diego this week, as the Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.32% rate. The Chargers are a solid football team. In fact, they move the chains at a 78.29% rate, which is not only better than their opponents, but the 2nd best in the NFL behind Denver (81.54%). They’ll be able to move the ball against a vulnerable Denver defense (72.04%), but not nearly enough to keep up with the Broncos. Even if the Chargers are an average football team, the Broncos have beaten the average football team by 20.43 points per game this season at home and no one has been closer than 10.

Especially helpful is how good Peyton Manning is at night. I don’t know if he’s a vampire or something, but he’s 31-13 ATS in night games since 2003, including 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights. The Broncos also have no distractions here with a trip to Houston on deck. Teams generally cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, which the Broncos will almost definitely be against one of the worst teams in the NFL next week. Teams are 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more.

The Chargers also don’t have any distractions this week, which is part of why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. They host the lowly Raiders next. Double digit underdogs before being favorites are 50-32 ATS since 2002. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 60-38 ATS before being favorites of 7 or more since 2002, including 14-5 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more before being favorites of 7 or more. However, I don’t think that helps them out enough to keep this one close. This is going to be a blowout.

Denver Broncos 45 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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2013 Week 14 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 14

Straight Up: 10-6

Against the Spread: 5-11

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 0-3

Low Confidence: 0-4

No Confidence: 4-2

Upset Picks: 0-4

2013

Straight Up: 140-67-1

Against the Spread: 122-80-6

Pick of the Week: 8-6

High Confidence: 20-6

Medium Confidence: 28-19

Low Confidence: 31-18-2

No Confidence: 35-31-4

Upset Picks: 24-22

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