2013 NFL Picks

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 15

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts  Percent
Denver 363 61 52 25 0 19 81.54%
San Diego 306 33 47 17 1 29 78.29%
New Orleans 288 40 48 14 8 27 77.18%
Carolina 272 32 54 16 2 23 76.19%
Chicago 286 36 55 16 4 27 75.94%
Detroit 293 39 54 28 9 20 74.94%
Seattle 256 36 52 16 5 28 74.30%
Dallas 261 37 69 13 1 21 74.13%
Atlanta 266 29 52 23 7 22 73.93%
New England 304 36 64 18 7 32 73.75%
Philadelphia 281 39 71 16 5 23 73.56%
Green Bay 274 30 53 20 4 33 73.43%
Cincinnati 266 36 64 24 6 20 72.60%
Indianapolis 257 31 61 13 6 30 72.36%
Washington 278 29 69 22 11 19 71.73%
Arizona 270 30 66 25 3 26 71.43%
Kansas City 264 30 74 13 6 25 71.36%
Pittsburgh 255 29 64 19 6 26 71.18%
Tennessee 240 31 66 20 5 21 70.76%
Minnesota 251 31 62 25 7 27 69.98%
St. Louis 236 26 65 17 11 22 69.50%
San Francisco 225 32 66 18 3 26 69.46%
Houston 262 24 67 23 10 31 68.59%
Miami 234 28 66 20 6 33 67.70%
Cleveland 247 26 72 23 13 23 67.57%
NY Giants 239 26 69 34 6 20 67.26%
Tampa Bay 224 23 71 16 9 26 66.94%
Baltimore 241 24 75 22 5 31 66.58%
Oakland 218 26 73 21 3 26 66.49%
Buffalo 239 25 82 24 7 27 65.35%
Jacksonville 215 18 83 20 12 21 63.14%
NY Jets 214 18 77 28 6 29 62.37%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts  Percent
Baltimore 223 24 83 17 6 30 64.49%
Kansas City 239 25 77 28 9 21 66.17%
Carolina 219 16 57 26 7 28 66.57%
Cincinnati 236 23 75 23 7 25 66.58%
San Francisco 227 23 70 24 10 20 66.84%
Buffalo 256 33 78 23 4 30 68.16%
Arizona 248 27 70 25 9 23 68.41%
Seattle 243 18 61 28 7 23 68.68%
NY Jets 235 31 70 10 8 32 68.91%
New Orleans 229 24 66 17 6 24 69.13%
Detroit 238 31 67 18 3 31 69.33%
Houston 221 33 73 9 3 26 69.59%
Miami 258 26 64 22 6 30 69.95%
Pittsburgh 243 31 65 15 6 30 70.26%
Cleveland 263 33 78 16 4 27 70.31%
New England 280 30 68 24 10 23 71.26%
Tennessee 271 30 63 20 2 34 71.67%
NY Giants 270 29 64 21 9 24 71.70%
Tampa Bay 263 30 56 29 4 25 71.99%
Denver 284 38 71 23 10 21 72.04%
Philadelphia 300 28 63 25 10 25 72.73%
Oakland 259 35 66 18 4 22 72.77%
St. Louis 273 34 62 24 6 19 73.44%
Indianapolis 270 33 57 19 6 27 73.54%
Green Bay 265 35 58 16 7 24 74.07%
Chicago 280 36 49 23 4 26 75.60%
Jacksonville 283 41 63 18 2 21 75.70%
Atlanta 268 37 50 12 4 31 75.87%
Minnesota 305 42 62 18 5 24 76.10%
San Diego 272 31 51 14 5 24 76.32%
Washington 280 44 57 19 4 19 76.60%
Dallas 324 40 49 25 7 24 77.61%

 

Differential

Team  Percent
Carolina 9.62%
Denver 9.50%
New Orleans 8.05%
Cincinnati 6.02%
Seattle 5.62%
Detroit 5.61%
Kansas City 5.19%
Arizona 3.02%
San Francisco 2.61%
New England 2.49%
Baltimore 2.09%
San Diego 1.97%
Pittsburgh 0.92%
Philadelphia 0.84%
Chicago 0.35%
Green Bay -0.64%
Tennessee -0.91%
Houston -1.00%
Indianapolis -1.18%
Atlanta -1.94%
Miami -2.25%
Cleveland -2.73%
Buffalo -2.81%
Dallas -3.48%
St. Louis -3.95%
NY Giants -4.44%
Washington -4.87%
Tampa Bay -5.05%
Minnesota -6.12%
Oakland -6.29%
NY Jets -6.55%
Jacksonville -12.56%

 

Projected Week 15 Lines

DEN/SD 10.53409
IND/HOU 2.822029
NE/MIA 1.738824
PHI/MIN 3.957251
ATL/WAS 5.930963
CHI/CLE 0.079841
BUF/JAX 6.74346
SEA/NYG 7.059799
SF/TB 4.667042
CAR/NYJ 19.16456
KC/OAK 8.481073
DAL/GB 0.161535
ARZ/TEN 0.930098
NO/STL 8.999742
CIN/PIT 2.093642
DET/BAL 6.521617

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 14th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Bears move them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th in the NFL. The Cowboys, however, sit at 24th, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents.

However, the Bears have only covered two games this season, which could explain why this line is even. They have two pushes, but they are 2-8-2 ATS on the season and one of those covers was in the game Aaron Rodgers got knocked out in the first quarter and they still struggled to beat the Packers with an unprepared Seneca Wallace under center. Last week, they lost to the Vikings, who are among the worst teams in the NFL.

They’ve been very reliant on their offense this season, but as Josh McCown has played very well in Jay Cutler’s absence, completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 75.8, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. If this is the week McCown decides to shit the bed, the Bears could be in a lot of trouble and that could happen. The Cowboys’ defense sucks, but they get Sean Lee back this week, which helps. Gun to my head, I’m taking the team that, on paper, has the better offense, and defense, and is at home, but I’m not confident in it.

Chicago Bears 24 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans. Their 2 losses came by a combined 59 points against the Cardinals and Rams. They haven’t had a particularly tough schedule, but they are still -45 in point differential since the bye.

Some people may point to the loss of Reggie Wayne as the reason why and that would be a valid point. Wayne went down right before the bye in a huge win against the Broncos and they’ve really struggled since that game. Andrew Luck has completed 107 of 194 (55.2%) for 1219 yards (6.28 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his last 5 games without Wayne. However, their offensive line and defense have been playing down to their 2012 level again.

Overall, they are playing like 2012 again, when they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in order to get to the 11-5 record at which they finished. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 16th in the NFL and even that takes into account their hot start to the season when they beat San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver.

That could mean trouble for them here as they did terribly on the road against quality football teams last season, losing by 12 in Houston, 20 in Chicago, and 35 in New England. The Bengals are certainly a quality football team who could blow them out if they play like they did last year. They’ve been dominant at home this year, winning all 5 games straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points per game. I’m not confident in Cincinnati because this spread seems awfully high at 6.5 (even rate of moving the chains says this line should be around 5.5) and because the Colts might play up to their level of competition again, but the Bengals should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

Earlier this year, the Lions won a game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989. In that game, accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time since 1989 that a team won the yardage battle by that much. They again won the yardage battle by that much last week, outgaining the Packers 561 to 126, the 4th time a team had won the yardage battle by that much since 1989. They also won by 30, despite losing the turnover battle, the 15th time a team had done that since 1989. The Lions are now moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 5th in the NFL. They need to avoid turnovers, but that type of thing can be very inconsistent.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Obviously, they’re better than that now that Nick Foles is under center. Foles is completing 63.3% of his passes for an average of 9.14 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and no interceptions on the season. They are 6-1 when he leads the team in passing attempts and 1-4 when he doesn’t.

However, they still have defensive problems and Foles has yet to beat a team as talented as Detroit. It’s also worth noting that the Eagles are 7-24 ATS at home since 2010 (11-20 straight up). They’ve only had Foles for 3 of those games, but he’s 1-1-1 ATS. The Eagles are also in a bad spot at home off of back to back home wins. Teams are 32-55 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Lions should be the right side, but I am nervous about going against Foles again. I definitely wish I was getting field goal protection as well.

Detroit Lions 27 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Packers are home favorites here and will probably be road underdogs in Dallas next week, while the Falcons will be home favorites for the Redskins. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, there’s also a chance that Aaron Rodgers returns next week, in which case the Packers would probably be favored in Dallas next week, which would make that trend irrelevant. Given that, I actually like the Packers this week. They aren’t as bad as they looked last week, when they were playing on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters of football in a tie the week before. I’m not saying they’re a good team without Rodgers by any means. After all, they played Minnesota to a tie in Green Bay. However, they’re better than they looked last week. They have the most talented quarterback under center since Rodgers went down in Matt Flynn and he has now had more time with the play book. The Packers are well rested after that Thursday game and they should be the right side here. I’m not confident though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the Jaguars as they face the Browns. Will this also be a close game? Well, it could be. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty very often this season. Just two of their wins have come by more than 10 points and just three came by more than a touchdown. Considering this line is 10, that’s very relevant. One of their games which they won by more than a touchdown was a ten point home win over Miami that was much closer than the final score.

It’s true the Patriots’ offense is a lot better now than it was at the start of the season. Tom Brady is playing better and he has most of his weapons back, with Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen all healthy. However, now their defense has become a problem, as season ending injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork have depleted their run defense as a lingering hip injury has sapped Aqib Talib’s effectiveness on the backend.

They’re moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, as moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They aren’t good, but I have this line calculated at 8, so as long as they have the experienced Jason Campbell under center instead of Alex Tanney, I can definitely see them keeping this close and forcing the Patriots into another close game. The Patriots generally haven’t done well as huge home favorites over the past few years, going 5-10 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

However, on the other hand, the Patriots are in a great spot as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites, going to Miami next week. They have absolutely no distractions. Teams are 92-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. Last week, it was the Texans who were in a good spot, a big part of the reason why that game was close. I actually think the Patriots are the right side here because of that trend. I’m not confident at all in laying double digits with them though.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects.

However, the Rams have to host the Saints next week so they might not be able to be focused enough to compete here. Teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 5 in favor of New Orleans.

We’re also not getting any line value either way as this line is right around where it should be. The Cardinals rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. The Rams, meanwhile, 20th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. I have this line calculated at 6, which is exactly where it is. We can’t even fade the public because the public is also split almost completely. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Cardinals because of how fluky some of the Rams’ victories have been this season, but I have no confidence at all.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Commanders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

How can the Chiefs not beat the Redskins by 4 or more right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Chiefs favored by 3.5 here. As is often the case with huge public leans, I think the odds makers are set to make a lot of money here. I love fading the public and I think they are flat out wrong here because they aren’t seeing the whole picture.

This line suggests that the Redskins would be underdogs of about 9.5 points in Kansas City. This is the same team that didn’t cover as 7.5 point home favorites against the Texans and Browns and that was when they still had Justin Houston. They really miss him and their pass rush has suddenly become non-existent. They have 1 sack in the past 3 weeks, after 36 in their first 9 games. As a result, they have allowed 103 points over the past 3 games, after allowing just 111 in their first 9 games combined.

Sure, they’ve faced a very tough batch of offenses in the last 3 weeks, going against Denver twice and San Diego, but you can just as easily point out that they faced a very easy batch of offenses in their first 9 games. Over their last 5 games before the first Denver game, they faced a backup quarterback in 4 of 5 games, including three 3rd string quarterbacks. They beat those three 3rd string quarterbacks by a combined 17 points. They were way too dependent on easy competition, recovering fumbles, winning the turnover battle, and return touchdowns for close wins early in the season. They’ve just been exposed over the past 3 weeks, especially without Justin Houston.

Also, the Redskins don’t have a bad offense at all, moving the chains at a 75% rate. Their biggest issue is their defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, but we’re still getting line value with them. The Chiefs’ offense moves the ball at just a 73% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 2 points and that’s before you take schedule into account. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs have faced the easiest schedule, while the Redskins have faced the 12th hardest.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. They put everything they had into that Denver game last week and came up short. They’re essentially locked into the 5th seed no matter what they do. They have a 3 game lead over the 6th seeded Ravens and they are essentially two games back of the Broncos for the division (1 game and tiebreaker) who have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way. Teams are 38-51 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as home favorites since 1989.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a situation teams are 65-45 ATS in since 2002. They’re actually in their third straight game as home underdogs. It’s a small sample size obviously, but teams are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs off of back-to-back losses as home underdogs since 2002, 13-6 ATS if you go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. It would be a bigger play on the Redskins if I trusted they hadn’t mailed in the season, unfamiliar with struggling after what happened last year, but they should get up for this one and as long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)

The Jets may be 5-7, but they are among the worst teams in the NFL. They have the NFL’s 2nd worst point differential as their 5 wins have come by a combined 19 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 140 points. They’ve lost their last 3 games by the combined score of 79-20 and Geno Smith has completed 29 of 74 for 374 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions over his past 4 games, a quarterback rating of 22.0 and might not start the next game, after being pulled for Matt Simms at halftime last week. Their offense is the worst in the NFL, moving the chains at a 65% rate, nullifying their solid defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72% rate, a differential that ranks 31st in the NFL.

They’re also in a bad spot here as they have to go to Carolina next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 34-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could just be too distracted here. The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Dallas. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. It also helps the Raiders that they got extra rest off of a Thursday game last week.

There are four reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Raiders. For one, they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. Teams tend to struggle in that spot. Two, the Raiders aren’t much better than the Jets. The Jets may rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 30th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponent. We’re not really getting any line value with them.

Three, the Raiders are a huge public underdog. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially on heavy leans on the underdog. Any time the public thinks one team is going to pull an upset, it’s definitely a concern. The fourth and final reason is I really like the way the Jets have dealt with the public being against them over the past couple of years. They do a great job bouncing back, going 5-3 ATS off of a loss of 17+ and 5-3 ATS as dogs off of a loss. As long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, the Raiders should still be the right side though.

Oakland Raiders 13 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-8)

The Buccaneers are favored here this week, something that has been a very rare occurrence for them this season. They were kind of favored against the Falcons a few weeks ago, favored by 1 point in some places, with the line being even in some other places and Atlanta being favored by a 1 point or two at the beginning of the week. However, with the exception of that, the last time they were favored was at home for Arizona week 4 and the only other instance was week 1 in New York for the Jets, both non-covers.

This is an obvious sandwich game situation, as the Bills as favorites in between a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. The Buccaneers lost in Carolina last week and host San Francisco next week. Teams are 76-99 ATS in that spot since 2008. It gets worse for the Buccaneers because teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 6 in favor of San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are in a much better situation with only a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being home underdogs since 2008. The underdog has no distractions to compete with a favorite, who could be distracted. I know the Bills will be road favorites and the Buccaneers will be home favorites, but the same logic should work and it might be an even more powerful situation. There’s just not enough of a sample size with that specific situation as this is just the 10th time it’s happened since 1989 (5-4 ATS). Going off of that, teams are 33-51 ATS before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

The Bills are also the better team. They move the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponent, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 28th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 71% for themselves. It’s not enough that we’re getting significant line value, but it’s definitely worth noting. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Bills, but they definitely seem like the right side.

Buffalo Bills 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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