2013 NFL Power Rankings

St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

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Last week: 28 (+1)

Record 4-6

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. The Rams will probably only be favored once more going forward, at home for Tampa Bay. Don’t be fooled by their fluky wins. With the exception of those two wins, the Rams’ other 2 wins have come over the Jaguars and by a field goal at home over the Cardinals. Don’t be fooled by their record. This isn’t even an average football team.

Week 10 Studs

LE William Hayes

CB Trumaine Johnson

Week 10 Duds

RB Zac Stacy

TE Jared Cook

CB Janoris Jenkins

CB Cortland Finnegan

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 2-7

Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, behind Tampa Bay, where they go this week. I had this team winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. But I guess that’s what happens when he has nothing functional around him.

Week 10 Studs

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Week 10 Duds

C Peter Konz

DT Peria Jerry

MLB Akeem Dent

FS Thomas DeCoud

SS William Moore

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

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Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 3-6

The league seems to have figured out Terrelle Pryor. Over his past 4 games, he’s completed 61 of 120 for 714 yards, 1 touchdown, and 8 interceptions. The Raiders blew one of their best chances to win another game the rest of the way, losing in New York to the Giants this week. They go to Houston this week and then they’re home for Tennessee, but after that, they have 5 straight games against teams that are currently .500 at better. They might not finish with much more than 3 or 4 wins. They have a lot of building to do this off-season.

Week 10 Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski

ROLB Sio Moore

DT Pat Sims

SS Usama Young

Week 10 Duds

QB Terrelle Pryor

LT Khalif Barnes

RT Menelik Watson

LE Jason Hunter

MLB Nick Roach

CB Phillip Adams

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

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Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-7

In his last two games, Christian Ponder has completed 42 of 58 for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, you have to remember he was facing two defenses in Dallas and Washington that are among the worst in the NFL and he was facing the latter on a short week when they were coming off of an overtime game (teams are 3-17 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game). Washington’s terrible “stop” unit made even Matt Cassel look passable when he game on in relief of an injured Christian Ponder. Ponder is expected to be fine going forward and to keep his starting job, but the schedule gets a lot tougher, with trips to Seattle, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Cincinnati to go with home games against Chicago, Philadelphia, and Detroit. It’s very, very possible we see another quarterback change for the Vikings at some point. They aren’t paying Josh Freeman 3 million for one start and a half of a season riding 3rd string.

Week 10 Studs

TE John Carlson

LE Everson Griffen

DT Kevin Williams

Week 10 Duds

RE Jared Allen

ROLB Chad Greenway

DT Chris Baker

MLB Erin Henderson

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

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Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-8

Like the Jaguars, the Buccaneers were going to win a game at some point and when the distracted and overrated Dolphins rode into town, it presented an excellent opportunity for them to win. The Buccaneers’ win was more impressive than the Jaguars’ because they didn’t rely on the turnover margin to do so. The Buccaneers in general are a more impressive team. Their point differential is -63, as opposed to -176 for the Jaguars. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are by far dead last, while the Buccaneers are actually 20th. The Jaguars are dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th. The Buccaneers have several very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. Even if the Buccaneers had lost, they’d be above the Jaguars.

Week 10 Studs

DT Gerald McCoy

MLB Mason Foster

LOLB Lavonte David

SS Mark Barron

Week 10 Duds

RG Davin Joseph

RE Adrian Clayborn

CB Leonard Johnson

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-8

As I said, the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0-16. That win doesn’t change my opinion on the team. They’re still a very, very bad football team who was able to take advantage of a distracted Tennessee team, who was looking forward to Indianapolis on Thursday Night. The Titans weren’t getting up for the Jaguars in that situation and when they lost their quarterback and the turnover battle (4 to 2, including 3 fumbles to 1), it just made it worse. This is still the worst team in the NFL, moving the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, and now that they have a win, teams might not take them as lightly.

Week 10 Studs

TE Marcedes Lewis

ROLB Geno Hayes

CB Dwayne Gratz

Week 10 Duds

QB Chad Henne

RT Austin Pasztor

RG Uche Nwaneri

C Brad Meester

TE Clay Harbor

MLB Paul Posluszny

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 8-1

The Seahawks move down because I don’t think the Broncos would beat the Rams and the Buccaneers by just a combined 8 points. The Broncos were on a bye so I don’t have a chance to talk about why they are better than the Seahawks so I’ll just do it here. The Broncos rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, behind only Carolina of all teams, while the Seahawks rank 8th. In DVOA, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 2nd (Carolina is 3rd). In point differential, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 4th. And Denver hasn’t been reliant on winning the turnover battle, as they are only recovering 37% of fumbles.

Week 9 Studs

QB Russell Wilson

C Max Unger

LE Michael Bennett

DT Tony McDaniel

Week 9 Duds

RG JR Sweezy

LE Red Bryant

FS Earl Thomas

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

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Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 6-2

The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I don’t envision them losing at home for the rest of the season, against Dallas, San Francisco, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. On the road, they have to go to Carolina and Seattle and could easily lose both. However, with Aaron Rodgers going down for an extended period of time, the Saints don’t have much competition for a first round bye and at least one home playoff game, which would essentially put them in the NFC Championship Game given their home dominance.

Week 10 Studs

DT Brodrick Bunkley

Week 10 Duds

FS Rafael Bush

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+2)

Record: 7-2

Last week, I criticized Tom Brady’s play with the caveat that I believed he could turn it around, but that I’d need to see it to believe it. Well I saw it last week. Brady’s passes had so much more life on them and his receiving corps stepped up big time. Aaron Dobson appears to have broken out as a legitimate outside receiver, while Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski both seem to be as good as you can expect them to be. Shane Vereen is expected back after the bye to give Brady a much needed high percentage checkdown target. The defense, despite the absence of Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, is still solid and will get Aqib Talib back after the bye. This is a legitimate contender again if they can keep it up. They’ve have several challenges after the bye, including trips to Carolina and Baltimore, as well as a huge home game against the Broncos which could be for the #1 seed in the AFC.

Week 9 Studs

QB Tom Brady

TE Rob Gronkowski

RE Chandler Jones

LE Rob Ninkovich

Week 9 Duds

LG Logan Mankins

TE Michael Hoomananwanui

CB Alfonzo Dennard

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