Last week: 6
Record: 1-2
On bye.
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2013 NFL Power Rankings
Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#7)
Last week: 12 (+5)
Record: 4-0
The Chiefs aren’t in the top-4 with the other 4-0 teams because their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They won’t be able to rely on winning the turnover battle every game going forward and in the first game they didn’t win the turnover battle, they were stuck in a tough battle at home with the 0-4 Giants, before a punt return blew the game open. They’re a very solid football team, but all 6 teams ahead of them on this list are greater contenders for the Super Bowl.
Week 5 Studs
QB Alex Smith
LOLB Justin Houston
ROLB Tamba Hali
SS Eric Berry
Week 5 Duds
RT Donald Stephenson
LG Geoff Schwartz
C Rodney Hudson
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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#8)
Last week: 9 (-1)
Record: 3-1
I’ve had the Lions higher than the Bears all season and the Lions did a very good job of supporting me this week, not only winning, but winning when they had a very powerful situational trend working against them (divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs are 16-48 ATS since 2002). They have a very good chance to be a playoff team this season.
Week 4 Studs
LE Israel Idonije
DT Ndamukong Suh
SS Louis Delmas
Week 4 Duds
TE Brandon Pettigrew
LE Willie Young
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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#9)
Last week: 11
Record: 1-2
On bye.
Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 5 Power Rankings (#10)
Last week: 8 (-2)
Record: 2-2
The Cowboys lost in San Diego, but there’s no shame in losing to a decent San Diego team in San Diego, with a huge trend working against them (Non-divisional home dogs are 37-11 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites, while, teams are 20-35 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs). They still have as many wins as the rest of the division combined and look like a heavy favorite in the worst division in football. This is a talented team that could give Denver a scare this week in Cowboys Stadium.
Week 4 Studs
LT Tyron Smith
RT Doug Free
RG Brian Waters
MLB Sean Lee
Week 4 Duds
DT Nick Hayden
CB Morris Claiborne
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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#11)
Last week: 10 (-1)
Record: 3-1
The Bears are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009. I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to move the chains 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, moving the chains about 73% of the time offensively.
Week 4 Studs
RE Julius Peppers
Week 4 Duds
QB Jay Cutler
RT Jordan Mills
C Roberto Garza
RE Shea McClellin
LOLB Lance Briggs
SS Major Wright
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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#12)
Last week: 7 (-5)
Record: 2-2
I thought the Bengals had finally broken through and gotten their signature win, beating the Packers despite losing the turnover battle, after going 1-11 against playoff teams in 2011 and 2012. However, last week they lose convincingly to the Browns. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games). We should know more about this team after a home game against the Patriots.
Week 4 Studs
LT Andrew Whitworth
RG Kevin Zeitler
DT Geno Atkins
Week 4 Duds
QB Andy Dalton
RE Michael Johnson
CB Adam Jones
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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#13)
Last week: 13
Record: 2-2
The Ravens’ loss in Buffalo isn’t shocking. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 points per game. The addition of Eugene Monroe at left tackle really helps this team going forward and they still have a very good chance of winning the division. Even at 2-2, they are currently tied for the division lead.
Week 4 Studs
RT Mitchell Schwartz
SS James Ihedigbo
Week 4 Duds
QB Joe Flacco
C Gino Gradkowski
LOLB Courtney Upshaw
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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#14)
Last week: 18 (+4)
Record: 3-1
The Colts had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. However, they’ve blown out the 49ers and the Jaguars over the past 2 weeks. You could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact on the field, though maybe it was a morale boost. It’s possible that their win in San Francisco was a fluke and that blowing out the Jaguars isn’t impressive, but, at the very least, they seem much improved offensively over last season. Andrew Luck, helped by an offensive system that fits his skill set better and an improved offensive line, is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, 2nd best in the NFL. They could continue being an offensive powerhouse going forward, even if they don’t continue playing this kind of defense (70% opponent’s rate of moving the chains).
Week 4 Studs
QB Andrew Luck
WR Reggie Wayne
LT Anthony Castonzo
LE Cory Redding
CB Vontae Davis
CB Darius Butler
MLB Kavell Conner
Week 4 Duds
RG Mike McGlynn
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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#15)
Last week: 15
Record: 2-2
The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team. That being said, any talk of replacing Schaub is ridiculous. Who are you realistically going to get for 2014 that’s better than him? I could see them using a day 2 pick on a quarterback to groom behind him however, as he goes into his age 33 season in 2014 and owed 29 million from 2015-2016.
Week 5 Studs
LG Wade Smith
LE JJ Watt
MLB Brian Cushing
ROLB Whitney Mercilus
Week 5 Duds
RT Derek Newton
RG Brandon Brooks
TE Garrett Graham
DT Earl Mitchell
MLB Daryl Sharpton
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