2013 Week 1 NFL Picks

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

This is the annual week 1 absurdly late game. In order to kick off the football season, ESPN crams two NFL games into Monday Night Football Week 1. The second game usually starts after 10 PM ET and features West Coast teams, which, recently, has meant East Coasters have to watch crappy teams play football until well past Midnight. Last year’s San Diego/Oakland game was one of the worst games of the season, a game in which the Raiders botched 3 separate long snaps. The year before featured a riveting Kyle Orton/Jason Campbell battle.

This year, the Chargers are featured again, but they will be facing a Texan team that comes from 2 time zones over. That matters to this analysis. The Chargers will be playing this game from 7:15 until after 10 their time, but it’ll run until past Midnight on the internal clocks of the Texans. They could have lower energy than normal late in this game for that reason and that puts them at a disadvantage.

The Texans are an overrated team, as well. The Chargers aren’t good, but, considering the circumstances, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored by more than a field goal here on the road. They were much worse last season than their 12-4 record would suggest. They had a less than stellar scoring differential, going +85 on the season, including +9 in their final 11 games, +2 if you include the playoffs. Overall, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 10 wins, despite a weak schedule. They ranked 11th in the NFL in DVOA, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily). They also were very reliant on winning the turnover battle, with a +12 turnover margin, with 29 takeaways and 17 turnovers.

That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). The Texans were actually just +2 in interceptions, but were +10 in fumbles, thanks to a fluky 64.1% fumble recovery rate. It’s not hard to see how the Texans’ turnover margin will even out in 2013. If it weren’t for this unsustainable turnover margin, the Texans would have been even worse in 2012.

Of course, they were off to a great start last year, before Brian Cushing got hurt. Without him, they ranked 18th in opponents’ scoring and 13th in opponents’ yardage, after starting the season as the top yardage and scoring defense in the NFL. They were 5-0 with him, including a win in Denver. The year before they were also a “what could have been team.”

They won 10 games in 2011 despite having their starting quarterback and top receiver only play together in 4 games. Before Matt Schaub went down with injury and missed the final 6 games of the season, the Texans were 7-3, scoring 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6, which would have been 5th and 3rd respectively over the course of the season. Those numbers translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.2 wins, which would have been second in the league that season. And all of that was despite Andre Johnson playing in just 4 of those 10 games, and Arian Foster missing 3 of those games.

Even after Schaub got hurt, they finished 10-6, going 3-3 without him and a 4th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis, winning a playoff game. I could say that the Texans will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season now that Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Brian Cushing are all healthy at the same time (it’s happened just 6 times in the last 2 seasons, all wins), but the NFL is messy. Nothing will ever be a perfect world. I’ve given up projecting them as that top, top level team. They’ll never be completely healthy and it’s not like they’ve had an absurd amount of injuries, ranking 8th in adjusted games lost in 2012 and 11th in 2011.

They just don’t seem to be able to take hits and keep on going and it’s very possible they’re just an above average team which flashes elite ability in the perfect scenario. This game isn’t a perfect scenario either as Antonio Smith, a talented starting defensive end, is out for this game with suspension. Furthermore, Brian Cushing might not be quite his usual self to start the season. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Chargers, I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Houston Texans 17 San Diego Chargers 16

Pick against spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

I actually have the Cowboys winning this division. I think they’re the best team in the NFC East. Turnovers were an issue overall for the Cowboys in 2012 as they had a turnover differential of -13 and managed just 16 takeaways. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

They should be better in that aspect this season and for that reason a better team. They actually have a good deal of talent on both sides of the ball so as long as they don’t get in their own way turnover wise or continue struggling to produce takeaways defensively, they should be an improved team in 2013. I actually like their defensive scheme change, as it’ll get top linebackers Bruce Carter and Sean Lee into positions that better fit their skill set. However, they won’t be as good to start the season, especially week 1, with injuries. Defensive tackle Jay Ratliff is out for at least the first 6 weeks of the season, while defensive end Anthony Spencer will miss at least this game with a knee injury. If the Cowboys have one weakness, it’s lack of depth. George Selvie and Nick Hayden will take their spots. Both had strong pre-seasons, but neither have had any significant impact thus far in their career.

The Giants, meanwhile, are normally a much better team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Eli Manning is not completely to blame, but his numbers are noticeably worse in the 2nd half of the season. His completion percentage drops about 3%. His YPA drops about 7/10ths of a yard per attempt. And his touchdown to interception ratio goes from 111/61 to 100/83. There’s a good chance they’ll get off to another hot start this season, only to fall back to the pack in November and December. They’re also a better road team than home team (in terms of record) and better when they’re being overlooked and under-dogged, which they are here. They’re 16-6 ATS as road dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New York Giants 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

The Raiders suck. Like they’re really, really bad. They won 4 games last year and appear a long shot to even match that total this year. For one thing, they have over 50 million in dead money on their cap. Of their 10 biggest cap numbers this season, 6 are dead money cap casualties who are on other teams, 1 is a backup quarterback, and another is a kicker. They had a first round pick this off-season, for the first time since 2010, but for various reasons had to cut 2010 middle linebacker Rolando McClain, 2009 1st round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey, and 2006 1st round pick Michael Huff this off-season, the latter of whom was actually still an asset for this team, but was a necessary cut for cap reasons.

Prior to drafting DJ Hayden 12th overall this past April, they had just two former 1st round picks on their roster, one of whom is a kicker. Hayden himself could be very behind the 8-ball as a rookie, as he wasn’t cleared for contact until late August after off-season surgery to repair scar tissue in his abdomen. Their cap situation also caused them to lose top defensive lineman Desmond Bryant, top linebacker Philip Wheeler, and leading receiver Brandon Myers this off-season.

On top of all of this, the Raiders will be without Jared Veldheer, one of their very few remaining good players, early in the season with a torn triceps. 2nd round rookie Menelik Watson, who has never played left tackle in his live, is supposed to play in his absence, but he’s dealing with a knee injury of his own. If he can’t go in this one, the Raiders would move Khalif Barnes to left tackle, which would be disastrous considering how overmatched he’s been on the easier right side over the past few seasons. Tony Pashos, a 33-year-old who didn’t play last season, would be the right tackle in that scenario.

The Raiders attempted to plug some holes with cheap signings of Vance Walker, Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett, and Charles Woodson defensively, but they’re, any way you look at it, a worse team than they were last season. They are going to be awful this season. However, the Colts had a lot of trouble beating awful teams last season. They only won 2 games all last season by more than a touchdown and that includes close calls against Tennessee, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Detroit, among others.

The good news for the Colts is the Raiders are worse than any team they played last season, including Kansas City. The Colts also should be a better team this season, though it probably won’t show in their win-loss record. Andrew Luck is going into his 2nd year in the league and should be better in Pep Hamilton’s system, which will resemble the one Luck ran at Stanford under Hamilton, rather than Bruce Arians’ system which had Luck throw 20+ yards downfield more than any quarterback in the NFL last season. He also should have a better offensive line, after being pressured more often than any quarterback in the NFL last season.

However, for all the money they spent this off-season, I don’t know that their supporting cast is that much better than it was last season, especially on defense. If this line were still -7 like it were before the pre-season, I could take the Colts, but as long as it’s -10, I can’t take the Colts, especially with all of the public action on them. They don’t have a history of blowing teams out and this could very well be week 1’s meaningless garbage touchdown for a backdoor cover that causes everyone to lose a ton of money game. That being said, I can’t put any money on the Raiders, even if they were -20. Indianapolis is also my Survivor Pick of the week. I’d be shocked if they lost this game.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Oakland Raiders 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Oakland +10

Confidence Level: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

I think the Seahawks are a little overrated because of how good their home field advantage is. Fortunately, as long as they’re home, they are the toughest team in the NFL to beat, but if they have to go on the road, they’re definitely beatable. Considering their home/road disparity goes back so far, I think they’re currently an above average team that looks elite at home, but show its true colors on the road. Going back to 2007, they are 15-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.63 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game.

Last season, they went 3-5 on the road, including losses in St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit, all sub-.500 teams a year ago. In the post-season, they were down 14-0 in Washington before Robert Griffin got hurt and they lost the following week in Atlanta.  At home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9) last season, beating 4 eventual playoff teams, and on the road, they outscored opponents by just 2.3 points per game (21.1-18.8), despite playing just one playoff team in that stretch (San Francisco).

The good news for the Seahawks is they got better as last season went on, both at home and away, thanks to the improvement of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. I think that has a good chance of carrying over in 2013, at least somewhat. However, The Panthers are an underrated team that is going to be a very tough team for the Seahawks to beat in Carolina, especially on the East Coast at 1 PM ET, a situation the Seahawks haven’t won in since 1998.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit.

Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively. He and Charles Johnson give them one of the best 4-3 defensive end duos in the NFL, with Hardy moving to defensive tackle on passing downs and talented reserve end Frank Alexander coming in to allow the Panthers to play 3 defensive ends at once. This season, Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short come in as rookies with Dwan Edwards at defensive tackle and give the Panthers one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

At linebacker, they have Jon Beason back healthy with Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. Their secondary is a problem, but you can mask a mediocre secondary with good front 7 play. The 49ers have been doing it for 2 seasons and the Panthers did it to end last season. For those reasons, I like their chances of carrying their strong finish into 2013. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Panthers, this is my Pick of the Week, especially since the public continue to put all their money on Seattle.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Carolina +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Bengals, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

With the Ravens having a poor off-season (at least in the general public’s eyes) and the Steelers coming off an 8-8 season, the Bengals have been popularly anointed the best team in the AFC North and the likely division champ. This does make some sense. They probably have more non-quarterback talent than any team in that division. They return a strong defense and a strong offensive line and add rookies Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert to the fold offensively, which will give the Bengals’ offense more versatility and balance. The added talent could also allow #1 receiver AJ Green to shine even more in his 3rd year in the league.

However, I still don’t know if Andy Dalton is capable of consistently beating top level teams. If you count the game against the Ravens’ backups week 17 of 2012 as a non-playoff team, Dalton is 18-4 against non-playoff teams in his career, but just 1-11 against playoff teams, including two post-season early exits. That one win was against the early season Redskins, who lost left tackle Trent Williams in that game. In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.

Are the Bears are playoff team? Well I don’t think anyone would be shocked if they made the playoffs. I didn’t predict them to make the playoffs, but mostly because the NFC is so loaded. If they were in the AFC like the Bengals, I don’t think they would have much problem at least grabbing a Wild Card. I think they certainly more have in common with the types of teams Dalton has been unable to beat than the types of teams he has dominated.

The Bears were overly reliant on dominating the turnover battle (+20) and the return touchdown battle (+7 touchdowns, 49 points) last season, two things that would have been very tough for them to carry into 2013. Their offense scored just 19.1 points per game last season if you take out the points scored by the defense on returns. That number doesn’t tell the whole story because the offense saw fewer drives to no fault of their own as a result of the defense taking it to the house 10 times, but even on a per drive basis, they ranked 22nd in the NFL scoring 1.62 points per drive.

However, credit the Bears for addressing their offensive needs this off-season. Drew Brees made Jermon Bushrod look better than he was and the Bears overpaid him, but he still represents an upgrade at left tackle over J’Marcus Webb, who went from starting left tackle to final cut when his #1 fan Mike Tice was let go this off-season. Martellus Bennett is light years better than Kellen Davis, who had one of the worst receiving seasons by a tight end in recent memory last season.

1st round pick Kyle Long slots in at right guard and if his pre-season is any indication, he won’t be overmatched at the NFL level. Alshon Jeffery also had a strong pre-season and will serve as a much needed consistent #2 opposite Brandon Marshall. On top of that, offensive minded Head Coach Marc Trestman comes in, hoping to add some life to an offense that was stagnant and predictable over the past few years under defensive minded Head Coach Lovie Smith and his ineffective group of offensive assistant.

This is by far the strongest supporting cast Jay Cutler has had since joining the Bears and, while they might score not more than the 23.4 points per game (16th in the NFL) they scored as a team last season, they’ll be a more consistent offensive team and they should be right around middle of the pack in scoring. Defensively, they remain one of the better stop units in the NFL, even if they don’t force as many turnovers as they did last season (the 3rd most by a team since 2002). They were #1 in the NFL in points allowed per drive last season.

On top of this, the Bengals could be without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for this game with a knee injury, which would be a huge loss. Whitworth finally got his due, making the Pro-Bowl last season, but he’s been consistently one of the best pass blocking left tackles in the game. Swing tackle Anthony Collins would be a significant downgrade from Whitworth and Bears’ defensive end Julius Peppers could probably have his way with him and create multiple pressures and possible a couple of sacks as well.

This is especially bad news because Andy Dalton is so poor under pressure. In terms of under pressure efficiency (which basically takes into account how often a quarterback completes a pass under pressure, takes a sack under pressure, throws an interception under pressure, or scrambles for a gain under pressure), Dalton was 3rd worst in the NFL last season, throwing 5 interceptions, completing 39.4% of his passes and taking a sack 29.4% of the time. Given that this line is just -3 and that the Bears are at home, I feel pretty confident taking the Bears here.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Chicago Bears 20 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

While much has been made of how much the Ravens lost this off-season, I actually think this is a better team this season than they were last season. Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean I expect them to repeat as Super Bowl champions. They weren’t the best team in the league last year. They were the best team in the league last January and February, but in the regular season they were a 10-6 team that barely won the yardage battle on the season. I expect them to be better than that this season.

The primary reason for that is I think that Joe Flacco will maintain some of his gains from last year’s post-season run. Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12. Of course, that all changed in the post-season, as he completed 57.9% of his passes for an average of 9.1 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

He won’t be that good this season, mostly because that level of play is impossible to maintain over a season, but there are three reasons why I think he carries over his strong play into this season and has the best regular season of his career. The first is I think he’s truly turned somewhat of a corner as a player. He’ll never be a top level quarterback most likely, but I think he is an improved quarterback over where he was a year ago.

The second reason is Bryant McKinnie. The veteran left tackle barely played in the regular season because of weight issues, but he got his weight right for the playoffs and made his first start of the season in the first round of the playoffs. This allowed Michael Oher and Kelechi Osemele to shift to their more natural positions of right tackle and left guard respectively. This led to Joe Flacco being sacked on just 4.5% of his drop backs in the post-season and pressured on just 27.6%. For comparison, he was sacked on 6.1% of his drop backs and pressured 32.4% of his drop backs in the regular season.

The third reason is offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell. Ordinarily, firing your offensive coordinator after week 14, as the Ravens did in 2012 after an overtime home loss to the Redskins, is the equivalent of waving a white flag. However, for the Ravens it was a move that had needed to be done for years as Cam Cameron was consistently overmatched as a play caller on a weekly basis. That was obvious. What was not obvious was how much of an upgrade Jim Caldwell, a first time signal caller, would be.

The biggest thing Caldwell did was letting Flacco unleash and throw downfield most often, rather than forcing him to run a more conservative offense. It had looked for years like Flacco was always holding something back and he might actually be more accurate 15 yards downfield than 5-10 yards downfield. In 6 full games with Caldwell as his offensive coordinator, Flacco threw downfield 20+ yards or more 41 times, an average of 6.8 times per game. In 13 games with Cam Cameron, he threw downfield 20+ yards or more 80 times, an average of 6.2 times per game. Of those 41 throws, he completed 20 for 714 yards and 6 touchdowns, with no interceptions. A full season of Flacco and Caldwell will be very beneficial to Flacco.

The only concern is he’s lost receivers Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Their receiving corps is a weakness and their Achilles heel, but I trust Flacco to succeed in spite of that. New #1 receiver Torrey Smith is a better fit as a #1 receiver in a downfield throw based offense and going into his 3rd year in the league, he could be ready to bust out.

On top of that, I actually really like what the Ravens did this off-season. This might sound ridiculous considering all they lost early in free agency. Ray Lewis retired, as did long time starting center Matt Birk. Ed Reed signed with the Texans and linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger, who came on big time in their playoff run, signed with the Dolphins and Ravens respectively. For cap reasons, Anquan Boldin was traded to the 49ers and Bernard Pollard was cut. Also gone are defensive starters, Cary Williams and Ma’ake Kemoeatu, making it a total of 9 starters gone from their Super Bowl winning team.

However, the Ravens did not panic and let the off-season come to them, as could have been expected from GM Ozzie Newsome, one of the best in the business. Super Bowls are never won on the first day of free agency. That’s when mediocre teams like the Dolphins panic and overspend, but the good teams like the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Giants, Packers, Saints, and Falcons never make big moves on that day and instead focus on smart signings, strong drafting, and careful cap management. You can say that it’s because those teams don’t need as much because they are already good, but none of them were built on big free agent signings.

The Ravens drafted very well, adding two first round prospects in the first 2 rounds of the draft in Matt Elam and Arthur Jones, who will replace Ed Reed and Ray Lewis respectively (technically Elam will play strong safety and replace Bernard Pollard, but safeties are so interchangeable these days that I think the statement still counts as true given than Elam is the future of the Ravens’ safety position). They may split time with veterans Josh Bynes and James Ihedigbo early in the season, but they will be the starters before long.

In addition to their strong draft, they made a number of smart free agency signings. Michael Huff was signed to a cheap 3 year deal to play safety next to Matt Elam. He was a cap casualty by the Raiders, but he is still a solid starter and a great value. Daryl Smith was signed to a one year deal from Jacksonville. He’s going into his age 31 season and missed most of last year with injury, but was one of the best linebackers in the league in 2011. He’ll play inside with Arthur Brown. Chris Canty was signed after being cut by the Giants to provide defensive line depth and replace Kemoeatu.

Even when the Ravens made a big money signing it was a good value. After the Broncos made him a cap casualty, the Ravens signed Elvis Dumervil to a 5 year, 26 million dollar deal (with an extra 9 million available through incentives). It was a great value considering Paul Kruger got 40.5 million over 5 years from the Browns, despite the fact that he was only a one year starter. Dumervil, meanwhile, has 42 sacks in his last 3 healthy seasons, including playoffs, and is only 2 years older, going into just his age 29 season. He’s very one dimensional, but he’s better in a 3-4, having his career best year in 2009 under Mike Nolan in Denver, and should play even better in Baltimore’s scheme (similar to a Mike Nolan type defense) than he did in the last 2 seasons in Denver.

If either of these two teams is inferior to the last time they met, it’s Denver. Sure, the additions of Wes Welker and Louis Vasquez give them a stronger offensive supporting cast, but I don’t necessarily think they’ll score more points as a result. The Broncos were 2nd in the NFL in points scored last year, averaging 30.1 points per game, largely due to Peyton Manning having the 2nd best statistical season of his career.

Sure, with an improved supporting cast, Manning could have an even better season, but I think it’s more likely that general regression, along with slightly diminished skills as a 37 year old who has recently had 4 neck surgeries, lead to a much more average season for Manning, at least by his standards. An average Manning season is still pretty good, but I don’t think they’ll score 30 points per game again, something Manning accomplished just once in Indianapolis (2004). They still lack balance on offense as they’ll be going with a trio of 2nd round rookie Montee Ball, 2012 3rd round pick and change of pace back Ronnie Hillman, and the mediocre Knowshon Moreno.

While I don’t think they’ll be as good offensively, defensively I know they won’t be as good, especially early on. First, they lost Elvis Dumervil, an above average defensive end who thrived as a pass rusher, this off-season and didn’t replace him. To add insult to injury on that one, Dumervil now is on the Ravens. On top of that, they’ll be without Von Miller and possibly Champ Bailey and Derek Wolfe in this game.

Miller’s absence will be the biggest since he’s one of the best all-around players in the game, but losing a #1 cornerback in Champ Bailey isn’t helpful either. Derek Wolfe’s potential absence isn’t as big of a deal, except for that it further thins out their defensive end depth. We could see heavy doses of a washed up Shaun Phillips, former 1st round pick bust Robert Ayers, and inexperienced 2nd year player Malik Jackson at defensive end for the Broncos this week. The Ravens should be able to move the ball easily.

I don’t know that the Ravens will necessarily win this game, but I’m pretty confident getting 7 ½ points with them. I thought this line was ridiculous when it opened at 8 ½ and that it was an overreaction to the Ravens’ supposedly poor offense, but it’s even more ridiculous that it only moved 1 point (without crossing any key numbers) for all of the Broncos injuries and Miller’s suspension. Defending Super Bowl Champions usually do well week 1, as the Giants losing last year snapped a 10 game winning streak for Defending Super Bowl Champions week 1, since they moved this to a standalone game (on either Monday, Thursday, or Wednesday) in 2002.

The Ravens are in a different situation, on the road here, because of a dispute with the Orioles, with whom they share multiple parking lots. However, I think that might make the Ravens feel even more disrespected, which they already must be, considering how little respect the public is giving them early. I really like getting more than a touchdown with them here in this situation. And for what’s it’s worth, I think it’s ridiculous this game had to be moved for baseball. Baseball has 162 games per season. Football has 16. One game is much more important and interesting in football, not to mention the fact that football is a more popular sport. And on top of that, the Ravens are defending Super Bowl champs. What have the Orioles won? Oh, they might have a chance at winning the 2nd AL Wild Card? Pretty impressive.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Denver Broncos 24 Upset Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore +7.5

Confidence: High

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Week 1 NFL Picks Early Thoughts

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Baltimore at Denver -8.5

Early thoughts: Reports of the Ravens’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. They’ve done a great job of filling the holes that were created early in free agency (including stealing Elvis Dumervil from Denver). They have Terrell Suggs returning to full health. And a full season of Jim Caldwell and Bryant Caldwell should allow Joe Flacco to maintain some of his gains in performance from last year’s post-season.

They’ll come into this season with more of a chip on their shoulder than any defending Super Bowl Champion in recent memory and defending Super Bowl champs usually do well week 1. The Ravens are on the road year, unlike defending champs usually are week 1, but that might give them an even bigger chip on their shoulder, being forced to go on the road by the Baltimore Orioles, who created a scheduling conflict.

Denver, meanwhile, lost Elvis Dumervil this off-season and might have lost Von Miller for the first 4 games. They add Wes Welker and Louis Vazquez offensively, but at the same time it’s unlikely that Manning will further improve on what was arguably the 2nd best season of his career in 2012, even with a stronger supporting cast. He’s a 37-year-old with a recent injury history. The Ravens might not win, but I love getting more than a touchdown with them coming into the place where they won last January.

New England -7.5 at Buffalo

Early thoughts: Patriots usually fare well week 1 and could be extra motivated to shut up doubters and I love betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1 (they went 1-3 ATS last season).

Tennessee at Pittsburgh -7

Early thoughts: Pittsburgh is a much better team at home than on the road and may be an overall underrated team this season.

Atlanta at New Orleans -3

Early thoughts: Sean Payton is back and New Orleans is still a very tough place to win. They won all 9 games here in 2011.

Tampa Bay -3 at NY Jets

Early thoughts: No strong lean. Might just go with NFC supremacy on this one.

Kansas City -3.5 at Jacksonville

Early thoughts: The Jaguars better get used to teams beating them by 4 or more because it’s going to happen an awful lot this season. Kansas City is a much improved team and should have no trouble here.

Cincinnati at Chicago -3

Early thoughts: Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against eventual playoff teams. I don’t know if the Bears are an eventual playoff team, but that wouldn’t surprise anyone and they’re certainly the type of team Dalton has issues with.

Miami -2 at Cleveland

Early thoughts: Miami is a little overrated off of their off-season. There are very few teams they should be road favorites against and Cleveland is not quite one of them. I don’t know if I’d put money on it though.

Seattle -3 at Carolina

Early thoughts: Carolina might be my play of the week. They’re my breakout team this season and Seattle still has all sorts of issues on the road, especially since this game will be at 1 PM ET. If they can lose to Miami, St. Louis, Arizona, and Detroit on the road in 2012, they can lose to a Carolina team that could easily win double digit games if they plan like they did to close last season.

Minnesota at Detroit -3.5

Early thoughts: These two teams are going in opposite directions this season. The fact that I have to give up more than a field goal with the Lions here only solidifies my belief in that. The odds makers know what’s up.

Oakland at Indianapolis -7

Early thoughts: Indianapolis won all of 2 games by more than a touchdown last season, but they’re an improved team this season and while I don’t think they’ll match their win total from last season, they should be able to beat one of the league’s worst teams by at least a touchdown.

Arizona at St. Louis -5.5

Early thoughts: I have these teams with the same win projections, so I’d take the points if I had to.

Green Bay at San Francisco -3.5

Early thoughts: I feel like the Packers have just been stewing on that post-season loss to the 49ers all off-season, especially the way the read option destroyed their defense. This is a big game for San Francisco too, but I love getting more than 3 points with Aaron Rodgers, who is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal in his career.

NY Giants at Dallas -2.5

Early thoughts: The Giants are a better team in the first half of the season than the second half team and cover on the road more than any other team in the league. Eli Manning is 13-5 ATS as a road underdog in his career. I think Dallas is the better team though, especially if Jason Pierre-Paul is out.

Philadelphia at Washington -5

Early thoughts: No strong lean. Might just take the points, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

Houston -3.5 at San Diego

Early thoughts: This is the annual absurdly late week 1 game. San Diego has a serious advantage for that reason. This game will run from 9:15 to past midnight for the Texans.

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