2013 Week 10 NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)

The Saints lost in New York last week to the Jets and it was viewed as a huge upset. Technically it was, the Saints were favored by 7 points, but I don’t know why anyone was shocked. The Saints lost in New England. The Patriots lost in New York. The Saints aren’t nearly as good of a team on the road as at home, but this week they return home. They’ve not only won 13 straight games at home under Sean Payton, but they’ve also covered 13 straight. In those 13 games, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 20.9 points per game. That’s average and I’d say the Cowboys are pretty average. They should get back to that this week. They’re also very good off of a loss over the past few years, going 19-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008.

Back to the Cowboys being an average team, they have a great offense which moves the chains at a 76% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. If there was any doubt they had a bad defense, they allowed Christian Ponder to complete 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception last week. Christian Ponder! The week before that, they allowed the Lions to generate 623 yards of offense and only almost won because they won the turnover battle by 4. They won’t be able to do that every week and their +10 turnover margin is going to be unsustainable going forward. They get DeMarcus Ware back this week, but that’s not going to solve all of their problems. Drew Brees is going to torch them. They seem to miss Rob Ryan, who, oddly enough, is the Saints’ defensive coordinator this year.

Ryan has done a great job with the Saints’ defense. Their numbers haven’t been as good lately as they’ve faced tougher competition, but they are still holding opponents to a 71% rate of moving the chains. This was after ranking 31st in points allowed last season and allowing the most yards in NFL history last season. Their offense is obviously still explosive, moving the chains at an 80% rate, giving them a differential that is 3rd in the NFL. They deserve to be favored more than 6.5 points, before you even take into account how good they are at home. This is going to be a rough situation for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints. They’re also my Survivor Pick this week.

New Orleans Saints 37 Dallas Cowboys 23 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

The Dolphins haven’t had an ordinary week. They’ve spent a lot of the week answering questions about the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin situation and dealing with the NFL and the media. That’s a huge distraction, before you even get into the fact that this already weak offensive line is going to be missing 2 starters. I don’t have all of the information on the situation. Very few people do. But I’m starting to side with Incognito, considering all the people on Incognito’s side are players and ex-players and everyone on Martin’s side are media members who never played. I have to side with the players on a situation like this.

It’s an unfortunate situation, but it sounds like Martin was just going throw an NFL initiation and being toughened up by a veteran player and he just couldn’t handle it. It sounds like Incognito took a special interest into making sure Martin would succeed and was his friend. I’m not saying Incognito didn’t cross a line, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a bad guy. In other places in the world, Incognito would not be able to fit in. He couldn’t have a desk job or fit into the real world or anything, but he’s a great fit for the NFL, which isn’t really the real world.  The NFL isn’t the right place for Martin. By NFL standards, this guy is a huge pussy. He’s much better suited for a real job than Incognito. He should just do that. He has a degree from Stanford. He can still be very successful in his life. He shouldn’t have to play football.

Anyway, this situation is going to be a huge distraction for the Dolphins this week. As much as they want to say they are, they won’t be focused for this week, especially since they are playing the winless Buccaneers. After a certain point, there is value with betting on winless teams. Winless home dogs are 19-11 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989. They’ll be much, much more focused for this game than the Dolphins.

I don’t think there is as big of a talent disparity between these two teams as their record would suggest. In fact, the Dolphins actually rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 27th. The Dolphins’ offense is moving the chains at a 70% rate, largely due to poor offensive line play, which is only going to get worse, while the retooled defense isn’t doing their job, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate and only allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dolphins, but they’re better than their record (ask Seattle) and the Dolphins aren’t as good as their record. I think the Buccaneers pull the upset here against a distracted Miami team. As long as I’m getting a field goal with the Buccaneers, I have high confidence in them at least covering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

Team X is one of these teams. Team X has an explosive offense led by a dual threat quarterback drafted in the 2011 NFL Draft that moves the chains at an 81% rate and scores 25.5 points per game. They have a shutdown defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate and allows opponents to score 13.3 points per game, the 2nd best in the NFL. Their secondary doesn’t have a lot of recognizable names, but they are playing well as a unit and they are supported by a fantastic front 7, led by a big name, recognizable middle linebacker. Their rate of moving the chains differential is best in the NFL and their point differential of +98 is the 3rd best in the NFL and the best in the NFC. In terms of DVOA, they are 3rd in the NFL.

You might think Team X is the 49ers and the 49ers are certainly a very good football team, but that aforementioned Team X is actually the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers are scoring a few more points per game, scoring 27.3 points per game, but they allow significantly more, allowing 18.1 points per game. Their point differential of +73 certainly is very good, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s, coming in 5th. In DVOA, they come in 6th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That differential is a solid 9th in the NFL, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s.

If you use rate of moving the chains to calculate a line, it would say that Carolina should be favored by 3 points. I don’t agree with that and you obviously can’t follow that blindly. The 49ers have been playing much better football over the past 4 games as compared to their first 3 games and they were so good in 2011 and 2012 that you can safely throw out the first 3 games of the season as a fluke. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL. But the Panthers are too. At the very least, we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers at +6.5. Remember, the Panthers are ranked higher than the 49ers by Football Outsiders in DVOA. In spite of this, most of the action is on San Francisco and the line is actually moving down. That suggests it’s a trap line and/or the sharps are on Carolina.

The 49ers could also be caught looking forward to the Saints next week. Teams are 61-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Panthers face the Patriots next week back in Carolina, but that’s a different story. For one, New England is a non-conference opponent so it won’t be as big of a distraction. They could also be favorites, especially if they have a good showing here this week. I think the Panthers will play this one close and possibly even win.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against spread: Carolina +6.5

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

The Jaguars are not very good. That’s obvious. However, everyone covers at some point. There’s a time, place, and a line where you can take any team. I think this is it for the Jaguars, as 11.5 point underdogs. There’s actually some value in betting on winless teams after a certain point. Winless teams are 23-5 ATS as road dogs since 1989 in week 9 or later. Teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and possibly underrated at that situation. The Buccaneers were winless last week when they marched into Seattle and took them to overtime as 15 point underdogs before eventually losing by a field goal. The Titans aren’t as good as the Seahawks and they’re favored by almost as much here. That should tell you something.

The Titans could especially be overlooking them because they host the Colts in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. Along with that, divisional home favorites are 13-28 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of 10 or more are 10-26 ATS since 1989 before being divisional underdogs, including 7-14 ATS before being divisional home dogs. They’ll have a lot of trouble concentrating on the winless Jaguars with that game up next and, as they are an NFL team, the Jaguars are capable of taking advantage of that, no matter how bad they may seem.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +11.5

Confidence: Medium

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