Last week: 2 (+1)
Record: 7-1
On bye.
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Last week: 2 (+1)
Record: 7-1
On bye.
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Last week: 1 (-1)
Record: 8-1
The Seahawks move down because I don’t think the Broncos would beat the Rams and the Buccaneers by just a combined 8 points. The Broncos were on a bye so I don’t have a chance to talk about why they are better than the Seahawks so I’ll just do it here. The Broncos rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, behind only Carolina of all teams, while the Seahawks rank 8th. In DVOA, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 2nd (Carolina is 3rd). In point differential, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 4th. And Denver hasn’t been reliant on winning the turnover battle, as they are only recovering 37% of fumbles.
Week 9 Studs
QB Russell Wilson
C Max Unger
LE Michael Bennett
DT Tony McDaniel
Week 9 Duds
RG JR Sweezy
LE Red Bryant
FS Earl Thomas
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Last week: 3 (+0)
Record: 6-2
The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I don’t envision them losing at home for the rest of the season, against Dallas, San Francisco, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. On the road, they have to go to Carolina and Seattle and could easily lose both. However, with Aaron Rodgers going down for an extended period of time, the Saints don’t have much competition for a first round bye and at least one home playoff game, which would essentially put them in the NFC Championship Game given their home dominance.
Week 10 Studs
DT Brodrick Bunkley
Week 10 Duds
FS Rafael Bush
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Last week: 6 (+2)
Record: 7-2
Last week, I criticized Tom Brady’s play with the caveat that I believed he could turn it around, but that I’d need to see it to believe it. Well I saw it last week. Brady’s passes had so much more life on them and his receiving corps stepped up big time. Aaron Dobson appears to have broken out as a legitimate outside receiver, while Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski both seem to be as good as you can expect them to be. Shane Vereen is expected back after the bye to give Brady a much needed high percentage checkdown target. The defense, despite the absence of Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, is still solid and will get Aqib Talib back after the bye. This is a legitimate contender again if they can keep it up. They’ve have several challenges after the bye, including trips to Carolina and Baltimore, as well as a huge home game against the Broncos which could be for the #1 seed in the AFC.
Week 9 Studs
QB Tom Brady
TE Rob Gronkowski
RE Chandler Jones
LE Rob Ninkovich
Week 9 Duds
LG Logan Mankins
TE Michael Hoomananwanui
CB Alfonzo Dennard
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Last week: 4 (-1)
Record: 6-2
On bye.
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Last week: 7 (+1)
Record: 6-2
Andrew Luck’s struggles against the Texans without Reggie Wayne in a near loss have to be concerning. Luck completed 18 of 40 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made plays when needed and a lot of the blame falls on his receivers, but it’s a concern. The Colts have to hope it’s not something that continues going forward. Fortunately, their schedule isn’t too bad. Among their final 8 opponents, only Cincinnati and Kansas City are currently above .500, though Arizona and Tennessee (twice) could give them some trouble if they’re not careful.
Week 9 Studs
WR TY Hilton
DT Aubrayo Franklin
MLB Pat Angerer
Week 9 Duds
LG Hugh Thornton
RG Mike McGlynn
MLB Jerrell Freeman
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Last week: 8 (+1)
Record: 9-0
It’s worth noting that the Bills’ offense led by Jeff Tuel outscored the Chiefs’ offense led by Alex Smith. The Bills won by 10 because of two return touchdowns, but that’s not a sustainable method of offense. Their schedule gets a lot harder from here on out. Their first 9 opponents were a combined 27-49 and they’ve faced 3 straight 3rd string quarterbacks, but their next 7 opponents are a combined 34-23, including Denver twice, San Diego twice, and Indianapolis. Fortunately, they get Denver after a bye and Andy Reid is 14-1 off of a regular season bye, only losing last season on a Philadelphia team that eventually finished 4-12. However, I don’t think Reid has ever had a test as hard as on the road against this caliber of opponent. The early line has Denver favored by 7.5 as the odds makers know the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record. Reid was only an underdog by more than 3 off of a bye once in Philadelphia.
Week 9 Studs
MLB Derrick Johnson
Week 9 Duds
LG Jeff Allen
CB Brandon Flowers
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Last week: 10 (+2)
Record: 5-3
The Panthers have won 4 straight by 14 or more. Every team since 1990 that has won 4 straight games by a combined 80 points or more with at least a 14 point or higher margin in each game has made the playoffs. Of course, the teams they beat are a combined 6-27. This week will be a real test as they go to San Francisco and face an equally hot 49er team. I think they have enough to at least be competitive. They lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. They rank 3rd in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They’re 3rd in point differential. We’ll know a lot more about this week after this week. They have a tougher schedule going forward, with two against the Saints and one against the Patriots, in addition to this San Francisco game, but I still think they have a chance to win the division and at least make the playoffs. They’re only a game behind New Orleans at this point.
Week 10 Studs
C Ryan Kalil
CB Drayton Florence
Week 10 Duds
None
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Last week: 11 (+2)
Record: 5-3
On bye.
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Last week: 9 (-1)
Record: 6-3
The Bengals are undefeated at home, including impressive wins over the Patriots and the Packers. However, they just aren’t the same team on the road. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer.
Week 9 Studs
RB Giovani Bernard
ROLB James Harrison
Week 9 Duds
RT Andre Smith
C Kyle Cook
TE Jermaine Gresham
TE Tyler Eifert
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