2013 Week 11 NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)

This is one I could go either way on. Both teams are in good spots and distraction free. The Ravens host the Jets next week and will be favored, while the Bears go to St. Louis and will be favored. Non-divisional home favorites are 69-47 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road dogs and non-divisional road dogs are 98-63 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.

These two teams are also as evenly matched as they come. Baltimore has a horrible offense that is moving the chains at a 68% rate, but their defense is holding opponents to 68% as well. Chicago has a horrible defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, but their offense moves the chains at a 77% rate. They are 16th and 15th respectively in rate of moving the chains differential and this line at 3 makes perfect sense. We’re not getting any line value with either side.

Chicago is dealing with crippling injuries. Before the season, the Bears had 6 above average or better starters, Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. Henry Melton is already out for the season. Charles Tillman is now out until the playoffs, if they can make them. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. None of those guys were playing up to their ability before going down anyway. Julius Peppers is showing his age and Major Wright is regressing in a major way.

Their defense could get worse going forward, which would put even more pressure on their offense, which is also dealing with a serious injury as Jay Cutler is out. Josh McCown has played well in Cutler’s absence, arguably as good as Cutler could have, completing 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. There are no guarantees he can keep that up though, given his career numbers (58.7%, 6.37 YPA, 41 touchdowns, 44 interceptions), despite the strong offensive supporting cast and coaching staff.

Baltimore, however, has been absolutely awful on the road thus far this season, going 1-4, losing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, while getting blown out in Denver. This isn’t a new trend. Since 2010, they are 26-4 at home, but 18-17 on the road. At the end of the day, I’m going to fade the Ravens on the road, but I’m not confident in Chicago at all. This is the biggest toss up of the week for me.

Chicago Bears 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are 3-6, but they are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which is a differential that ranks 17th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11 on the season), an inability to recover fumbles (28.6%), and return touchdowns (-2 in return touchdowns), but those things are all related and all very inconsistent. The Lions are a good team, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, but we’re still getting some line value with Pittsburgh +3.

The Lions are also in a bad spot after last week’s close win in Chicago. Favorites are 28-59 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 as road favorites the week before. They have a one game lead on the division, an easy schedule upcoming, and the two teams within a game of them in the division are missing their starting quarterbacks with injury. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they started to coast a little bit. As long as we’re getting a field goal with the Steelers, they should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

I maintained all along that the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0 for a season. Winless teams are 24-5 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989 so I’m not surprised at all that Jacksonville was able to go into Tennessee and beat a distracted Titans team. That shouldn’t change what anyone thinks about this team. They’re still one of the worst teams of the decade and easily the worst team in the NFL this season.

Their point differential is -176. No one else is worse than -78 (Houston, NY Giants). Football Outsiders has them at -62.3% in terms of DVOA. No one else is worse than -35.9% (Oakland). In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. No one else has a differential worse than -8%. Arizona isn’t a fantastic team or anything, but they’re at least average. They move the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th. In terms of DVOA, they are 12th. 9 points might seem like a lot to be giving with the Cardinals on the road, but it’s pretty reasonable.

Now that the Jaguars have a win, they won’t catch teams off guard as easily and they can get back to what they were doing for the vast majority of the season, which was losing to anyone and everyone by 10 points or more. They’re also in a bad spot after last week’s win. Since 1989, teams are 46-67 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-28 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. I’m not confident in the Cardinals because I hate laying more than a touchdown on the road with anyone (7.5+ road favorites are 5-17 ATS since 2011), but if I had to pick a side, I’d take Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Chargers are in an obvious sandwich game spot here in between a loss at home for Denver and a game in Kansas City next week. Teams are 74-95 ATS since 2008 as favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Since 1989, teams are 29-45 ATS as road favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Road favorites are 37-50 ATS off of a home loss as underdogs since 1989. Also since 1989, non-divisional favorites are 24-40 ATS off a loss as divisional underdogs before being divisional underdogs again. It makes sense. Why would San Diego put forth a ton of effort for Miami in between arguably the two biggest games of their season?

However, Miami could also still be very distracted with the whole Incognito/Martin situation. At the same time, enough time might have passed that they are more motivated to silence their critics than distracted, especially after last week’s embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay. It’s really tough to know and that makes this a tough pick. Also, Miami is not as good as their record. Distractions weren’t the only reason Miami lost in Tampa Bay. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Their off-season spending spree has not paid off and being without two starters on their offensive line doesn’t help. The Chargers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. That suggests they should be favored by about 3.5. I’m going to take San Diego on pure talent, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 23

Pick against spread: San Diego -1.5

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

I had the Falcons winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. However, they have a very realistic chance of that happening right now, at 2-7. That’s just what happens when you have nothing functional around your quarterback. Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That’s actually significantly worse than Tampa Bay, who is better than their record. Tampa Bay is 26th, but they are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They’ve been competitive in most of their games and their point differential of -63 is actually better than Atlanta’s point differential of -65. They have some very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. In terms of DVOA, they are actually 20th, while the Falcons are 22nd. The Falcons have no business being favored on the road here.

The Falcons are also in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. They play the Saints next week on Thursday Night Football and that could be a huge distraction for them. They could have a very hard time getting up for the Buccaneers when they host the Saints in 4 days. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Falcons are in a good spot coming off of back-to-back losses of 21+. Teams are 38-20 ATS in that spot since 2002 as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation.

However, I think it’s a different dynamic with the Falcons being favorites. They are the first team to be road favorites off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 1999 and only 5 have been road favorites in that situation since 1989, going 1-4 ATS. It’s obviously not a huge sample size or anything, but it makes sense that the Falcons might not be as undervalued and overlooked here as road favorites as they otherwise would be. The Buccaneers are in a bad spot coming off of a close home win as underdogs. Teams are 34-58 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 1-3 points as home underdogs. It’s not a huge play on the Buccaneers for that reason, but we’re getting value with them and they should win this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

The Bengals were riding high off of a 49-9 win over the Jets a couple of weeks ago, but after back-to-back road overtime losses, they have been knocked back down to Earth and people have given them the inconsistent label. I don’t think it’s so much inconsistency as home/road disparity. On the road, they lost in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore and almost lost in Detroit and Buffalo. However, they are still a dominant home team that has won all 4 of their home games, including two against New England and Green Bay and one by 40 against the Jets. At home, Andy Dalton completes 64.6% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. On the road, Andy Dalton completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Back at home, they should get back on track this week against an inferior team.

On the season, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 8.5. That matters because big home favorites usually take care of business going into their bye and it’s important to determine whether or not the Bengals deserve to be big home favorites. I think they do. Home favorites of 6+ are 49-17 ATS since 2002. The thing I’m worried about is that they might not be the same team defensively without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall and that the Browns are a legitimately improved team offensively without Brandon Weeden under center.

The Bengals also might be tired off of back-to-back overtime games. Teams off of back-to-back overtime games surprisingly don’t have a poor record against the spread, going 17-19 ATS since 1989, but that’s not a huge sample size. Also, teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime and the Bengals are coming off of back-to-back road losses in overtime. They could just be so tired and unable to concentrate for the Browns this week. Also the Browns are in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. I’m still taking the Bengals to bounce back, but I’m not that confident. Cincinnati is my Survivor Pick this week though.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)

The Chiefs are 9-0 and 8 point underdogs. How rare is that? Well, since 1989, no 9-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. The Chiefs are 8 point underdogs. No 8-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. If you want to find an undefeated team that has been underdogs of this amount, you’d have to go back to 1997, when the 5-0 Buccaneers were 8 point underdogs in Green Bay (for the record, they covered, but did not win).

Some people might look at that and think “how can the Chiefs not cover?” and apparently that’s what people are doing as the majority of the money is on the underdog here. I think the opposite. The odds makers must have a good reason for making them underdogs of this amount. It’s not like undefeated dogs are an automatic cover. 5-0 or better teams are 7-6 ATS since 1989 and 4-0 or better teams are 14-14 ATS and the fact that the public is on Kansas City makes me think this is a trap line. There’s a reason the odds makers always win in the long run.

So why do the Chiefs deserve to be 8 point underdogs? For one thing, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, according to DVOA and that doesn’t even take into account they’ve faced 3rd string quarterbacks in their last 3 games and backup quarterbacks in 4 of their last 5 games. The last 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, and Jeff Tuel. Peyton Manning represents an obvious contrast from those 5.

The Broncos have had an easily schedule as well, 31st in terms of DVOA, but there are a couple of differences. For one thing, the Broncos have faced just one backup quarterback (Chad Henne and the Jaguars). The Broncos have also been more impressive in their victories, with a +133 point differential, as opposed to +104 for Kansas City. That also takes into account that the Chiefs have 7 return touchdowns, which have accounted for 49 of those points. As a result, the Chiefs rank just 23rd in points per drive, despite the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Return touchdowns are very tough to rely on, especially against the Broncos. The Chiefs have also been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin (+15) and an unsustainable rate of recovering fumbles (66.7%), which is a large part of the reason why the Chiefs are +7 in return touchdowns. The Broncos, meanwhile, are just +2 in turnovers, despite having Peyton Manning under center, largely as a result of a 36.7% fumble recovery rate. The Chiefs may rank 1st in points per drive allowed, but they rank just 6th in net points per drive, while the Broncos rank 1st. In terms of DVOA, the Broncos rank 1st, while the Chiefs rank 8th. That’s why this line makes sense.

As I said, I automatically lean towards the Broncos because I think this is a trap line. However, there are reasons why I’m not confident in the Broncos. Peyton Manning’s high ankle sprain and the uncertainty that comes with it is one reason. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. The Chiefs host the Chargers next week, which mean they won’t have any distractions to worry about.

Also, Andy Reid’s extraordinary record off of a bye has to be taken into account. As a Head Coach with the Eagles, Andy Reid was 14-1 off of a regular season bye, with that one loss coming in last year’s train wreck of a season. Of course, he’s only once been underdogs over more than 3 off of a regular season bye so his teams have never been as challenged as the Chiefs will be against the Broncos this week. However, against the spread, he is 11-4 ATS off of a bye and even if the Chiefs don’t win, there’s a lot of room to cover anyway. At the end of the day, I’m fading the trap line, but I’m not confident at all.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Denver -8

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)

It’s almost always a bad idea to bet against Tom Brady as an underdog. In his career, Brady is 29-13 ATS as an underdog and 40-15 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than 3. It makes sense. This is the same Tom Brady who still feels slighted by being taken in the 6th round 13 years ago. He’s at his best when people doubt him and all the talk this week is about how the Panthers have finally arrived (news flash: they’ve been arriving all season). However, we might not be getting enough points to confidently take the Patriots here.

The Panthers have been a dominant team this season, especially over the past 5 weeks, which include 4 wins by 14+ points and a 1 point win in San Francisco last week that was easily the biggest victory of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. They are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 68% for their opponents, a differential is that 2nd in the NFL. The Patriots, meanwhile, haven’t been the same this year as they usually are. Their offense is moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential this is 9th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 7.5.

Of course, the Patriots had easily their best game of the season before the bye, beating the Steelers 55-31. Not only did they score 55 points, but they didn’t rely on their defense very much to do so, as they had 610 total yards and 33 first downs. It’s very possible that Tom Brady and his receivers are finally on the same page. Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are healthy now and will only be healthier coming off of the bye and rookie Aaron Dobson seems to be coming around. That trio had at least 100 yards and a touchdown between them. The ball also looked to be coming out of Brady’s hand better.

There’s no guarantee they’ll continue to be an improved offensive team going forward, but it’s certainly not something I’d put past them, especially with Shane Vereen expected back to provide Tom Brady a much needed high percentage target on a check down and a needed change of pace in the running game. Remember, he had 159 all-purpose yards week 1 before getting hurt and he should be close to 100% in his first game back because he wasn’t dealing with any sort of leg injury. Defense was a problem against Pittsburgh, but the Patriots are expected to get top cornerback Aqib Talib back for this one and they’ve generally had a strong defense on the season.

I think it’s safe to say that the Patriots are better than they’ve played this season, but the extent to which they are is still unknown. If Brady and this offense come out like they did against Miami 3 weeks ago, they might have trouble getting out of single digits against this Carolina defense. I really wish we were getting at least a field goal with the Patriots, especially since the Panthers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon (at Miami next week). Teams are 69-47 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. The Patriots, meanwhile, have to take on Denver next week. At the end of the day, Tom Brady as a dog is basically an automatic bet-on at this point, but I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 20 New England Patriots 19

Pick against spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Both of these teams lost as huge home favorites last week, the Colts lost 38-8 at home to the Rams and the Titans losing 29-27 to the Jaguars. It’s very likely both teams were caught looking forward to this huge divisional game and that last week’s performance was just a fluke for both teams. Both teams won the first down battle despite the loss and they lost for fluky reasons. The Titans fumbled 3 times and lost the turnover battle by 2, as a result.

Meanwhile, there are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. I think we can give both of these teams a pass for what happened last week and essentially just approach this game is if neither of those games ever happened.

Yes, the Titans lost Jake Locker for the season last week, but he wasn’t the reason they were in the hunt. That would be their solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Derrick Morgan, and others, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. There’s a reason they were competitive with both Kansas City and Seattle even without Jake Locker. Fitzpatrick will have the whole week to prepare for this week and he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides, it’s very possible the Colts recent struggles (including a near loss in Houston) are related to the loss of Reggie Wayne, who they lost against Denver before the bye. They haven’t been the same without him.

I’m not saying the Titans are definitely going to win this game, but the public seems to be giving the Colts a pass for last week, but not the Titans, even though they were in the same situation. The public is all over the Colts -3 because “how can the Colts not beat the Titans by 3 or more?” I love fading heavy public favorites when an opportunity presents itself and I also love getting a field goal or more with a home team unless that team is completely terrible. Remember, the Colts were 10 point favorites over the Rams last week. This line suggests the Colts would be 9 point favorites over the Titans. Considering the Titans covered as 3 point favorites in St. Louis 2 weeks ago, that makes no sense. I’m not confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The closest came when the Steelers had 29 more first downs than the Browns in 1999 in a 43-0 victory. They outgained the Cowboys by 431 yards, the most lopsided yardage battle since the Patriots in a 59-0 victory over the Titans in 2009. It would have been even more lopsided if the Saints hadn’t muffed a punt and the Cowboys hadn’t recovered an onside kick. Because of those 2 things, the Saints had just 8 drives and scored touchdowns on 7 of them. It was an absurd destruction.

The Saints have now not just won, but covered in 14 straight home games under Sean Payton. They’ve won these games by an average of 22 points per game, with only two being decided by 10 points or less and none being decided by fewer than 6 points. As a result of last week, the Saints now lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 70% for opponents. The 49ers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, ranking 10th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9 points, before you even take into account the Saints’ home dominance.

So Saints -3.5 should be a no brainer right? Well, not necessarily. The 49ers are coming off of a loss to the Panthers and they have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 6-3 ATS off a loss under Jim Harbaugh, including 8-3 ATS if you take into account week 1 games off of a playoff loss. If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out.

With the exception of a fluky home loss to the Colts, they have only lost back-to-back games once in the Jim Harbaugh era. If you exclude that Colts game, they have won all 8 of their regular season games off of a loss by an average of 18 points per game. This line has actually shifted past the key number of 3 in the past week, as it was at 2.5 last week and the public is still all over the Saints. I hate backing huge publicly backed sides and that could be an overreaction to the 49ers loss to a very underrated Panthers team. Of course, it could also be a proper reaction to the Saints’ dominant home performance over the Cowboys.

The 49ers are also in a good spot. Non-divisional road dogs are 37-24 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites. The 49ers have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Washington up next. The Saints, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. Teams are 27-50 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall victim to this big time last week, both losing straight up as huge home favorites. However, it’s unlikely that the Saints overlook the 49ers in favor of a trip to the 2-7 Falcons next week.

Besides, teams are 50-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Teams are 9-11 ATS in that situation before a Thursday Night Game since 1989. That’s not a big sample size and it’s not a strong trend or anything, but I think, if anything, the non-divisional home favorites before divisional road favorites trend should cancel out the Thursday Night trend. I don’t think the Saints will be nearly as distracted as the Colts and Titans were last week, if they are at all.

It’s not a massive play on the Saints or anything, but I think it’s essentially an auto-bet on the Saints at home at this point. The Saints could also carry over momentum from last week’s win, as teams are 45-28 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they score 48 or more points. If Vernon Davis is ruled out with his concussion, I’ll make this a high confidence pick because Colin Kaepernick has been pretty lost without him this season, but for now it’s a medium confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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