2013 Week 13 NFL Picks

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Saints, Seahawks, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Seahawks are home favorites here and will be road underdogs in San Francisco next week, while the Saints will be home favorites for the Panthers. Teams are 52-86 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, as is the case with all trends, you can’t just follow it blindly. Next week’s game in San Francisco is going to be a big deal, but I don’t think the Seahawks are going to overlook a game that could easily be NFC Championship part 1 the way Denver/New England could have been AFC Championship part 1 last week. The Seahawks already have a 3 game lead on the division, but they’re only up a game over the Saints for the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the NFC. Likewise, the Saints could be equally distracted with the Carolina game next week that could be for the NFC South championship. I don’t think one team is in a better spot than the other in terms of upcoming distractions, despite what the trend says.

There are several reasons why this could easily be NFC Championship part 1. Of course, these are currently the two best teams in the NFC record wise, but both teams are also dominant at home. That means, if they get a top-2 seed and a first round bye, they are basically in the NFC Championship game, with a bye and a home game before that. Once there, home field advantage is going to be incredibly important because of how good these two teams are at home. In fact, if we assume the winner of this game gets the #1 seed, the winner of this game probably has a better chance than not of going all the way to the Super Bowl. This might be even bigger than the NFC Championship game because it could decide the NFC Championship game.

How good is Seattle at home? Well, since 2007, they are 37-17 ATS at home, including 21-9 ATS as home favorites. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 10-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 13 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 17.9 points per game. The Saints are equally dominant at home, but they aren’t at home here.

Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints couldn’t beat the Seahawks in Seattle a few years ago in the playoffs and that was when they were a significantly better team than the Seahawks. That’s not the case here at all so the Saints could really be in trouble.

I’m not going against the Seahawks at home here against a Saints team that displays a similar home/road disparity to them. If this was in New Orleans, I would take the Saints, but it isn’t. I’m 11-0 against the spread on Saints games this year, so I feel like I have a very good read on them. Also helping the Seahawks is the fact that they are coming off a bye. They’ve had an extra week to prepare for this. Great teams usually make great use of that extra week. Teams with a winning percentage of 90% or better are 25-11 ATS as home off of a bye since 1989. I’m pretty confident the Seahawks cover here.

Seattle Seahawks 31 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)

The Falcons came into last week on a 4 game losing streak, having lost those last 4 by a combined 74 points. However, they were able to play the Saints very close at home in Atlanta in a 17-13 loss. Some people might believe that means they’ll be better going forward. I think it’s the opposite. I think this was a team that was not used to losing like this, so they quit on the season, with the exception of a huge home game against divisional rival New Orleans, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they lost that, they will probably be pretty flat for the rest of the season, especially for a team like Buffalo. Given that, they could be in a lot of trouble on the road here, where they have yet to cover thus far this season, especially since they have a bigger game in Green Bay next week. If Rodgers returns, they could be double digit underdogs and teams are 34-69 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs.

The Falcons’ offense is actually pretty good, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as Matt Ryan is doing a very good job this season despite not having any help offensively. However, their defense might be the worst in the entire NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 82% rate. That differential is 26th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. They’re as healthy as they’ve been all season right now. Stephon Gilmore, Jairus Byrd, and EJ Manuel have all returned, while CJ Spiller could be more explosive after an extra week to rest his ankle, off of the bye. Steve Johnson and Robert Woods are also expected back this week. There’s no reason they should only be favored by 3.5 points here. That suggests they are barely better than the Falcons, which isn’t true.

The Bills have also been very good at home this season, beating the Ravens and the Panthers, almost beating the Bengals, Chiefs, and Patriots, and blowing out the Jets, 5 teams that are all currently in the playoff race and a combined 42-24 on the season. The Falcons are by far the easiest team they’ve faced at home this season and they could easily blow them out like they did to the Jets. The only concern is this game is up the road a little bit in Toronto, so it’s not a true home game. It’ll still be mostly Buffalo fans, but they haven’t had a ton of success in Toronto in the past so playing there could conceivably screw with their good home mojo. I’m still pretty confident in them though.

Buffalo Bills 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)

The Ravens have been pretty unbeatable at home over the past few seasons, going 27-4 at home since 2010. Even this year, their worst year of that time frame, they are 5-1 at home, including 6-0 ATS. Because of that, I automatically think about taking the Ravens as small home favorites in a game they pretty much have to just win. They are 5-3 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 3 or fewer over that time frame.

However, the Steelers are one team that has had success in Baltimore over that time frame, delivering them 2 of their 4 losses and one of those home non-covers as underdogs or small home favorites. For the record, their other two losses were to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, while their other non-covers were to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, a pretty good group. The Steelers have actually won and covered in two of their last three instances over the Ravens in Baltimore since the 2010 season.

Sure, they’re not the same Steeler team they were then, but they came in and won as touchdown underdogs with Charlie Batch under center during last year’s 8-8 season and that was when the Ravens were better than they are now. The injury to Dennis Pitta and the departure of Anquan Boldin have turned this into one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their offensive line and their running game aren’t playing well either. Outside of the Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith combination, nothing is really working well for the Ravens offensively.

The Steelers are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Teams are 103-71 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Ravens. These two teams are very evenly matched because of how good the Ravens’ defense is. They are 11th (Ravens) and 13th (Steelers) in rate of moving the chains differential. The Steelers’ success in Baltimore scares me, but as long as these two teams are evenly matched, I’m taking the Ravens at home as small favorites. I’m not confident though.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, non-divisional home favorites dominate on Thursdays, going 30-14 ATS since 1989. This makes sense. Playing on a short week is rough, but it’s even rougher when you have to travel on a short week. That cuts into valuable preparation time. However, if you are the better team on the road, that usually nullifies it, so home favorites have a much bigger advantage over home underdogs.

Also, if teams are divisional rivals, they are already pretty familiar with each other so the short week won’t matter as much. For that reason, non-divisional home favorites have a much bigger advantage over divisional home favorites. The Raiders are an inferior team travelling on a short week to an opponent who they see once every 4 years (because this is a non-conference game). They could get absolutely steamrolled and the Cowboys could easily cover the 9 point spread. Touchdown plus non-divisional home favorites are 12-4 ATS since 1989.

However, this spread might just be too big. I don’t know if the Cowboys deserve to be favored by this much. Their defense is awful, especially since they lost middle linebacker Sean Lee with injury. He won’t be back this week. Everyone remembers when they allowed 40 first downs to the Saints a few weeks ago, an NFL record. The Raiders don’t have a great offense, but they could still move the chains here. The Cowboys are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. The Raiders, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 64% for their opponents. That suggests this line should really be around 4, instead of 9. That’s a lot of line value with the Raiders.

The Cowboys are also in a bad spot here. They are coming off of a close road win as underdogs, beating the Giants by 3 points last week. Teams are 27-51 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a road win as underdogs by 3 or fewer. They also have a much more important game in Chicago next week on Monday Night Football, which could easily have playoff implications, considering both teams are tied at a game out of the 2nd wild card spot. The Cowboys may feel they can coast through this home game and be distracted with that game up next, especially off of last week’s big win. Non-divisional home favorites are 63-86 ATS before being non-divisional road dogs since 2008.

The Cowboys generally coast as big home favorites anyway, going 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since the opening of the new Cowboys stadium in 2009. At the end of the day, the Raiders are probably the right side, but I can’t shake the image of them going into Dallas and getting steamrolled on a short week on the road by a superior non-divisional opponent, so I’m not confident at all.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +9

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)

The Lions were sitting pretty atop the NFC North two weeks ago at 6-3. Now two weeks later? Well, they still lead the division, but largely because of the ineptitude of their division rivals over the past 2 weeks. The Lions have lost their last two games, both as favorites, to the Steelers and the Buccaneers and now sit at 6-5. However, I’m not going to knock them that much for those two losses. They were in tough spots in each game, coming off of a close win in Chicago before the Pittsburgh game and then going into a divisional Thursday Night Game after the Tampa Bay game. Both teams are also better than their records.

The Lions are also -8 in turnovers over the past 2 games. The fact that both games have even been close in spite of that is an accomplishment in itself. Turnover margins are pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis and the Lions were +1 on the season before the last two games so I don’t think it’s something that’s necessarily going to hurt them here again. Assuming it doesn’t, they should win pretty easily here. They’re still moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, a differential that is still a solid 11th in the NFL.

They deserve to be favored by more than 6 over the Packers as long as Aaron Rodgers is out, which he will be. This game is in Detroit and home field is usually 3 points, so this line is saying the Lions are only 3 points better than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think that’s true at all. Since he went down, the Packers have lost at home to the Bears and Eagles, by a combined 21 points, lost in New York to the Giants by 14, and tied at home with the lowly Vikings.

You could argue Rodgers deserves the MVP trophy for how poorly his team has fared without him. Matt Flynn will probably be an upgrade over Scott Tolzien, but I’m not convinced Flynn is even an average backup at this point, considering his struggles in the year and a half he was away from Green Bay. He’s posted some nice stats in Green Bay’s system, including 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in relief of Tolzien, forcing a tie last week, but it’s not a big enough sample size for me to be convinced. Besides, Minnesota, who he faced last week, has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Also, don’t forget how big of a game this is for the Lions. They have lost their last 9 Thanksgiving games by an average of 19.4 points per game, including 3 to the Packers by an average of 15 points per game. They’ve also lost 22 of their last 25 to the Packers in general, getting outscored by an average of 10.4 points per game across all 25 games. They have a lot of demons to vanquish and a perfect opportunity to do so with Aaron Rodgers out.

This is the first time they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving since before the losing streak began and only the 5th time they’ve been favored against the Packers since the 22 of 25 stretch began. This is only the 2nd time they’ve been favored over the Packers by more than a field goal. I think they’re going to give it everything they have to capitalize on this opportunity and I really think a big part of the reason why they fell flat last week was because this game this week meant so much to them. I think they’ll play like it.

Also, the Packers could very well be exhausted in this one, on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters last week. Teams are 4-8 ATS since 1989 off of a tie in general, which isn’t a big sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. Also worth noting, teams are 3-17 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game, including 1-13 ATS on the road, which also makes sense. And the majority of those teams didn’t even go the full overtime as the Packers are just the 3rd team in that time frame to play a Thursday Night game off of a tie. The previous two both failed to cover, losing against the spread by an average of 8 points per game. This is a near impossible situation for the Packers, especially at 1 PM start.

There is one reason why this isn’t a bigger play and that’s the situation both of these teams are in. The Lions are favorites before being underdogs in Philadelphia next week, while the Packers will host the Falcons next week. Teams are 52-86 ATS since 2008 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. However, I don’t think you can just blindly follow that trend. I don’t think it’s very likely the Lions get caught looking forward to Philadelphia next week when they have this incredible opportunity this week. I like the Lions a lot. They are also my Survivor Pick.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The 49ers blew out the Redskins on Monday Night Football, 27-6. This is obviously good because the 49ers needed that win to stay in the 6th seed over the Cardinals, but also because teams almost always tend to carry the momentum from a huge Monday Night blowout into the next week. Teams are 30-13 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night win by 21 or more.

The 49ers in general seem to blowout bad teams. Colin Kaepernick has had his share of issues this season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 86 of 138 for 1290 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.3 points per game. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 21-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. They generally take care of inferior competition pretty easily.

The Rams are definitely inferior competition. Sure, they’ve won their last 2 games by 21+ to put them at 5-6, but they’re not as good as their record. The way they’re winning is unsustainable. Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season (and one of their other wins came against Jacksonville).

After their first game of that type, they got blown out in Carolina 30-15. After their second, they beat Chicago 42-21. However, teams are 6-18 ATS since 1989 off of that type of game, which I think is definitely worth noting. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams won’t be able to consistently rely on return touchdowns, big plays, and winning the turnover battle, especially not against a team like San Francisco, just like they couldn’t against Carolina.

They couldn’t do that against the 49ers the last time they played each other, losing by 24, and that was at home. And that was when they still had Sam Bradford under center and when San Francisco was without Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith and struggling during a 1-2 start. That line was 3 in the road, which would translate to about 9 at home, which is right around where this line is. I don’t think that’s right, considering how the 49ers blew them out and what’s happened since.

The only real way the Rams are better since then is they now have Zac Stacy, who has emerged as a feature back in this off-season. However, he might miss this game with a concussion, which would leave Benny Cunningham as the starter. Sure, he rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts last week, but that was against the Bears’ pathetic run defense. He rushed for just 6 yards on 4 carries against the 49ers earlier this year and, again, that was when the 49ers were without Willis and Smith. The 49ers should be able to blow the Rams out here. This is my Pick of the Week as long as it’s in single digits.

San Francisco 49ers 34 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Week 12 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 12

Straight Up: 10-3-1

Against the spread: 11-2-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 2-0

Medium Confidence: 2-0

Low Confidence: 4-1-1

No Confidence: 2-1

Upset Picks: 4-1

2013

Straight Up: 120-55-1

Against the Spread: 111-60-5

Pick of the Week: 7-5

High Confidence: 18-5

Medium Confidence: 26-14

Low Confidence: 30-13-2

No Confidence: 30-23-3

Upset Picks: 24-16