2013 Week 14 NFL Picks

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, completing just 59.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, obviously different numbers than he’s used to. I don’t know if that statistic is as powerful as it seems because he has some strong games in the 33-40 degree range and I don’t think there’s anything magic about the number 32 that makes him terrible, unless he’s secretly a liquid.

However, there’s definitely a trending down of his play as the temperature gets colder, more than the rest of the league’s quarterbacks. Those problems seem to be more pronounced as he’s gotten older and dealt with more injury problems (the loss in New England and the home loss to Baltimore last year are 2 of his 6 losses since coming to Denver) and now he’s going to have to deal with incredibly cold temperatures at home in Denver this week with Tennessee coming to town. The game time temperature for this one is expected to be somewhere around 10 degrees and fall into single digits over the course of the game.

Peyton Manning probably won’t lose the game solely because of the cold, but it’s going to make it very tough for the Broncos to cover this 13 point spread. That spread is ridiculous to begin with. The Titans are a decent football team, which moves the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which ranks 17th in the NFL in terms of differential. They’ve been competitive with both Seattle and Kansas City this year and they don’t deserve to be 13 point underdogs against anyone. I have this line calculated around 8.5 points.

The Broncos have really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 7 games, Peyton Manning has completed 177 of 288 (61.4%) for 2241 yards (7.78 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is and not taking the weather into account. In spite of that, the public is still all over the Broncos, which is why the odds makers can inflate the line and still make a lot of money with a Tennessee cover. Fading heavy public leans is always a good idea.

The Titans are also in a good spot here as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Indianapolis. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a bad spot, as they play on Thursday night next week. They could definitely get caught looking forward to that, especially since the divisional Chargers are coming to town. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. I have confidence that the Titans will keep this one closer than 13.

Denver Broncos 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +13

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers are in an incredibly tough situation this week because they have to face the Broncos a few days after this one in Denver on Thursday Night Football. That is undoubtedly the biggest game of their season. They’ll obviously not want to overlook the Giants here as they are in the midst of a playoff race, but it might be unavoidable. It’s going to be very, very hard for them to get up for a non-conference opponent they see every 4 years with that game up next.

The Chargers will almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. The early line has them has 11 point underdogs and a few weeks ago they were underdogs of a touchdown at home against the Broncos (and failed to cover). Teams generally really struggle before being double digit underdogs because they get caught looking forward to such a big game. Teams are 34-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010.

The fact that this game is on Thursday Night Football doesn’t help matters. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. This is a near impossible situation for the Chargers to succeed in. I personally believe the Chargers are a better team than the Giants. The Chargers rank 12th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 27th, moving them at a 69% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents.

However, it’s not always about that. We’re getting more than a field goal here, which makes me more willing to take the Giants in spite of my personal opinions about these two teams. The Giants have been playing better football of late as their turnover problem has predictably corrected itself. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and came close to beating Dallas. Granted none of those teams were very good, but it’s hard to argue the Chargers are significantly better. The Giants are also a dominant road team and have been since the beginning of the Tom Coughlin era in 2004. They are 34-19 ATS as road dogs in that time period. This is my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 27 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The Seahawks blew the Saints last week, winning 34-7 on Monday Night Football. Ordinarily, teams carry over that momentum off of a Monday night blowout into their next game, going 31-13 ATS since 2002 off of a win of 21 or more. However, I don’t think the Seahawks were as good as they looked last week. I’m not saying they’re bad at all. In fact, they might be the best team in the NFL. But they’re not 27 point win over the Saints good. Away from their incredible home field advantage, they could be exposed here in their biggest road test of the season.

They ordinarily don’t do well as road underdogs, going 14-24 ATS as road underdogs since 2007, including 8-17 ATS after a home game (teams generally cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are adjusted to being away from home). They’ve yet to be road underdogs yet this season. In fact, they’ve been road underdogs just once over the past 2 seasons, last year in San Francisco. They covered that game as 7.5 point underdogs because the 49ers declined a safety that would have been it a 9 point game, in favor of just running out the clock.

We also didn’t know how good the Seahawks were at the time. We do now, which is why this line is at 2.5 points, so we’re not getting any line value. The 49ers are a huge test for the Seahawks on the road. This game also means a lot more for the 49ers than the Seahawks. I’m not saying the Seahawks will completely sleepwalk through this game, but they are essentially locked into the #1 seed, unless they completely implode. The 49ers, meanwhile, need every win they can get to stay in the playoff picture and this is also a big revenge game for the 49ers. The 49ers are 15-7 ATS against teams that beat them in their last matchup, since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011.

I’m not that confident, however. The 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this season. Against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 6 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game. In their other 6 games, Kaepernick has completed 70 of 137 for 747 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 166 yards and no touchdowns on 27 carries. They are 2-4 in those 6 games. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)

The Saints got blown out in Seattle last week 34-7, but there’s not a lot of shame in getting blown out in Seattle. They have the most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL and they also might be the best team in the NFL. This week, the Saints return home, where they have probably the 2nd most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL. The Saints haven’t lost against the spread, or straight up, at home under Sean Payton since 2010, 15 games.

Their only non-cover of that time period was three weeks ago at home as 3 point favorites against the 49ers, a 3 point win and push. Even that game should not have been that close, as they won despite losing the turnover battle by 2. They had 23 first downs to 12 for the 49ers and could have won by much more if it wasn’t for a muffed punt and a fumbled pick six. New Orleans at home is almost always as auto-bet. They’re 30-13 ATS as home favorites since 2008, including 27-10 ATS under Sean Payton.

This line would ordinarily suggest these two teams are even, as home field advantage is usually 3 points. They are very evenly matched teams. The Panthers rank 1st in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. The Saints, meanwhile, are 2nd, as they move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers are 3rd, as opposed to 4th for their opponents.

However, 3 points is not the appropriate adjustment for the Saints’ home field advantage. This line should be at least 5 or 6, instead of 3, even if we agree these two teams are even, which I think they are. The Saints also usually dominate after a loss, going 20-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton. They’re also 11-3 ATS at home at night since Drew Brees came to town in 2006. They should put up a dominant performance here. I’m very confident they’ll win by at least 3. It’s worth noting I’m 12-0 ATS picking Saints games this season.

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

The Texans are 2-10, a game behind the Jaguars, and lost to the Texans at home two weeks ago. Why do they deserve to be favored here on the road by 3.5 points? Well, it’s because the Texans aren’t as bad as their record, while the Jaguars aren’t as good and just because one team beats another team, doesn’t mean they’d necessary win more than 50 times out of 100.

The Jaguars have 3 wins, but all 3 of them were by a touchdown or less against bad teams and they probably would not have beaten any of the 3 teams more than 50 times out of a 100, given how they played in the rest of their games. Their nine losses have all come by double digits. They’re still, by far, dead last in the NFL in point differential, DVOA, and rate of moving the chains. The Texans, meanwhile, have just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, the Texans could have completely quit on the season. They aren’t used to losing like this and they hadn’t been showing a lot of effort over the past month, up until last week’s near home win against the Patriots, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they’re done with that game, they might just completely mail it in. Teams usually struggle as road favorites off of a home loss as underdogs, going 38-51 ATS since 1989 in that spot.

The Texans might actually benefit from mailing it in, given that they are currently in the driver’s seat for the first pick. The Jaguars used to be in the driver’s seat for the first pick, but they didn’t seem to care about that, winning 3 of their last 4. However, there’s no reason to trust they’ll definitely put any effort into this one.  That’s the issue. This is a completely meaningless game that teams could actually benefit from losing. I’m not putting anything on that. You’d have to be a degenerate gambler to put any money on this game. Gun to my head, I’ll fade the public (slight lean on Houston) and hope for a field goal game, but I have no confidence.

Houston Texans 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

The Ravens won at home last week against the Steelers, but did not cover. However, you could definitely argue they deserved to cover. They scored 6 times (1 touchdown, 5 field goals), as opposed to 3 times for Pittsburgh (3 touchdowns) and still could have covered if they had scored a touchdown on a Jacoby Jones kickoff return that Mike Tomlin “accidentally” interfered with. They punted just one time all game.

Failing to cover against the Steelers is nothing new though as they seem to have had their number recently. Since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era in 2008, the Steelers have covered 5 times in Baltimore (as opposed to one Baltimore cover), including 3 times as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer. Ordinarily, the Ravens are dominant as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or fewer in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era.

With the exception of games against the Steelers, who seem to have their number, the Ravens are 18-5 ATS at home as long as they aren’t favored by more than a touchdown. That’s the case here as the Ravens are favored by a touchdown. That might seem like a lot of points, but you could easily argue this line is too low, even before you consider the Ravens’ home dominance and any other situational factors.

The Ravens are playing better football now than at the start of the season. Their defense is still dominant, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate, and their offense is coming around, moving the chains at a 71% rate. That differential is 11th in the NFL. They’ll be even better if they get Dennis Pitta back this week from injury, which would give them a much needed reliable 2nd weapon, something they haven’t had all season. He’s considered questionable at this point.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents, a differential that is 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8, instead of 7. Again, that’s before you even consider the Ravens’ home dominance and any other situational factors. What situational factors are at play here? Well, the Ravens will be significantly more rested than the Vikings. The Vikings are coming off of a 2nd straight overtime game, including a tie and a game that almost went to a tie. That’s essentially 10 quarters of football in a 2 week stretch. I don’t have any numbers that show that’s a huge negative thing because it happens so infrequently, but it can’t help.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are coming off of a Thursday night game, so they’ll have extra rest before this one. Teams generally cover more often than not off of a Thursday night game, going 75-58 ATS since 2008. That percentage is higher when the team has been at home the whole time, for obvious reasons. Teams are 26-16 ATS since 1989 at home off of a Thursday night home game. This is a very cushy spot for the Ravens here, while the Vikings could be running on fumes. Since 1989, teams are 15-7 ATS off of a Thursday night game when their opponent is coming off of an overtime game. The Ravens should blow the Vikings out easily here. They are also my survivor pick.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Minnesota Vikings 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7

Confidence: High

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2013 Week 13 NFL Pick Results

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Week 13

Straight Up: 10-6

Against the Spread: 6-9-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-2

Low Confidence: 1-1

No Confidence: 1-6-1

Upset Picks: 0-2

2013

Straight Up: 130-61-1

Against the Spread: 117-69-6

Pick of the Week: 8-5

High Confidence: 19-5

Medium Confidence: 28-16

Low Confidence: 31-14-2

No Confidence: 31-29-4

Upset Picks: 24-18

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