2013 Week 15 NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being favorites of 10 or more at home. In this spot, the 49ers can be as focused as they need to be in order to dispatch of an inferior opponent.

The 49ers have also been dominant against inferior teams this season. Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 22-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

As long as the line stays under 6, the 49ers definitely seem like the right side. There are three things that keep this from being a bigger play. One, the public is all over San Francisco and I hate heavy public leans. Two, the 49ers could be in a trap situation going across the country to play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team after the biggest win of their season over hated rival Seattle last week.

Three, Football Outsiders has Tampa Bay ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. It not that hard to see why, considering their point differential is just -47, despite their 4-9 record. I don’t have them nearly that high as they are moving the chains at a 66.94% rate, as opposed to 71.99% for their opponents, a differential of -5.05% that is 28th in the NFL. I think they’ve been too reliant on an unsustainable +13 turnover margin to buoy their team, but Football Outsiders ranking them so high is enough to scare me off a little. San Francisco should be the right side though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8)

At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.26% rate, as opposed to 71.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.44% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around 7, which is exactly where it is.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Seahawks aren’t quite the same team away from home. They aren’t a bad team away from home, but their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential takes into account games in which they have an amazing home field advantage, which they don’t here.  They’ve had some impressive games on the road. They’ve won in Carolina, blew out the Falcons, and came away with an impressive double digit victory from Arizona. However, they’ve also played close games with Houston, St. Louis, and lost in Indianapolis and San Francisco.

They have just two wins on the road by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover this spread. Dating back to last season, they have just three road wins by more than a touchdown in 15 tries. The Seahawks are in a good spot though with no distractions with a home game against Arizona up next. Since 1989, teams are 84-54 ATS as road favorites of 5 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which is why I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated.

That’s the only time they’ve covered on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU, including a loss in New York to the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle and near losses in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. That win in Chicago was their only win by more than 4 points on the road all season and it was by just 8 points. Over the past 4 seasons, they have just 6 road wins by a touchdown or more. As a result, they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ dating back to 2010.

However, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Rams to confidently take them here. The Rams are not very good. They are moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.95% that is 25th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3rd in differential, moving the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 69.13% for their opponents, a differential of 8.05%. That suggests this line should be around 9. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Saints’ road issues, but I have to feel a team has at least a chance to win to confident take them as underdogs of a touchdown or less and I don’t feel that way about the Rams. I’m going to take them and hope for a close game, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Raiders are one of the worst, by any measure. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs rank 5th, while the Raiders rank 31st. In terms of rate of movement the chains, the Chiefs move them at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 66.17% for their opponents, a differential of 5.19% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th in differential, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate, as opposed to 72.77% for their opponents, a differential of -6.29%. Using that, this line should be around 8.5, which is appropriate for a line between a top level team and a bottom level team, instead of 5, as it currently is.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot, as road favorites off of a win as road favorites, a situation teams are 93-71 ATS in since 1989, including 72-44 ATS as road favorites of 3+ after a win of 3+ as road favorites of 3+. They have plenty of reason to give their best effort here as they’re a Denver slipup away from leading the division and getting a first round bye. The Raiders, meanwhile, could be too distracted to keep this one close, even if they were good enough to. They have to go to San Diego next week. Teams are 26-39 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Chiefs should be able to win this one by a good margin and they should be the right side, as long this line is below 6 points.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against spread: Kansas City -5

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8)

The Bengals have been dominant at home this season, winning all 6 of their games by an average of 16.00 points per game, including victories over the Colts, Patriots, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. They’ve also covered in all 6 of those games. However, they haven’t been the same team on the road. They are 3-4 on the road, including losses in Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, and Chicago and a near loss in Buffalo. Their only impressive road games have been in Detroit, where they won by a field goal, and in San Diego, where they won by a touchdown, their only road game of the season where they’ve won by more than a touchdown.

And yet, they’re favored by 2.5 points here in Pittsburgh. They are 1-3 ATS as road favorites this season, including 0-2 ATS as divisional road favorites. They lost in Cleveland and Baltimore, despite beating the Browns by 21 (they haven’t played the Ravens there yet). Why couldn’t they lose in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that only lost by 10 in Cincinnati earlier this season?

The Steelers are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are moving the chains at a 71.18% rate, as opposed to 70.26% for their opponents, a 0.92% differential that is 13th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a 36.67% fumble recovery percentage. The Bengals are very good as well, moving the chains at a 72.60% rate, as opposed to 66.58% for their opponents, a 6.02% differential that is 4th in the NFL. However, they just aren’t the same on the road. If we were getting field goal protection with the Steelers, it’d be a bigger play, but I still like the Steelers’ chances of winning this straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6)

The Lions lost last week in Philadelphia by the score of 34-20. The Eagles won that game on the strength of a 28-6 margin in the 4th quarter, after the Lions led by 14-6 going into the 4th quarter. However, now the Lions return home where they are 4-2 and outscore opponents by 7.17 points per game, as opposed to on the road, where they are 3-4 and get outscored by opponents by 2.57 points per game.

Furthermore, underdogs who lead by more than a touchdown going into the final period and still lose are 28-16 ATS since 1989 as favorites the following week. There seems to be something to blowing an upset victory late, but still being favored the following week. The Lions’ loss last week was largely snow related and now they can take out all of their frustrations at home against the Ravens.

The Lions’ last 3 losses have all been pretty fluky, as they’ve had -3, -5, and -3 turnover margins in those 3 games. The Lions are 7-6 despite a -10 turnover margin on the season, which might sound bad, but I think it’s more impressive than anything. Turnover margins are very inconsistent. For instance, teams that have a -4 turnover margin have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week, about the same as teams that have a +4 turnover margin. When this team doesn’t lose the turnover battle, they can compete with anyone in the NFL. They are moving the chains at a 74.94% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 5.61%, which is 6th in the NFL. They’re underrated.

The Ravens are underrated as well. They have been terrible offensively this season, moving the chains at a 66.58% rate, but they have an amazing defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 64.49% rate. That’s a differential of 2.09%, which is 11th in the NFL. On top of that, they have Dennis Pitta back from injury, which will help their offense. He played well in limited action in his first game back and he should be even better in his 2nd game back.

However, the Ravens are not the same team on the road. They are 1-5 on the road, as opposed to 6-1 at home. This isn’t a new thing. Since 2008, the Ravens are 41-8 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.00 points per game, as opposed to 29-28 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.26 points per game.  It’s not a big play, but I like the Lions’ chance of bouncing back at home against a Ravens team that struggles on the road.

Detroit Lions 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this one, so the line has been posted. The Packers have opened as 7 point underdogs. You check see all of the NFL lines at https://www.bwin.com/. However, even though Aaron Rodgers is out, that doesn’t mean the Packers will have trouble moving the ball. The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a ridiculous 77.61% rate and they will be without stud middle linebacker Sean Lee with an injury.

Eddie Lacy should be able to run all over them and make life easy for Matt Flynn, who was much better last week against an equally bad Atlanta defense, completing 24 of 32 for 258 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He’s the best quarterback the Packers have had since Aaron Rodgers went down and he’s played pretty well, excluding a Detroit game where he didn’t have the playbook down and had to play on short rest on the road after his teammates played essentially a 5 quarter game the week before.

Because of the Cowboys’ terrible defense, they rank pretty far down in rate of moving the chains differential. With their defense allowing opponents to move the chains at 77.61%, their offense, as good as it is, can’t keep up, moving the chains at a 74.13% rate, a differential of -3.38% that ranks 24th in the NFL. They are only 7-6 because of a +12 turnover margin and a 70.0% rate of recovering fumbles that helps fuel it. Both of those things are unsustainable. Their opponents have 63 more first downs and 20 fewer punts on the season.

The Packers obviously aren’t as good as their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential would suggest because so much of the positive was done with Aaron Rodgers under center, but they still don’t deserve to be 7 point underdogs here. According to rate of moving the chains differential, the only team that deserves to be 7 point underdogs in Dallas is Jacksonville. I don’t think the Packers are that bad.

The Cowboys also have had a lot of trouble as big home favorites over the past few years, going 5-12 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since new Cowboys Stadium opened in 2009. Most recently, they struggled with Oakland at home on Thanksgiving, trailing early before winning by a touchdown as 9 point favorites. If the Cowboys can’t beat the Raiders at home on a short week by more than a touchdown, they don’t have a good chance of beating the Packers at home on a normal week. In fact, their last win by more than a touchdown game way back in week 7.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Cowboys have no distractions, with only a trip to Washington on deck. The Cowboys could easily be favorites of more than a field goal in Washington next week and teams are 63-37 ATS before being road favorites of more than a field goal since 2012. The Packers may or may not be in a good spot here. Usually, non-divisional road underdogs cover before being non-divisional home favorites, going 100-65 ATS since 2008. The Packers host the Steelers next week and would definitely be home favorites if Rodgers were to return and might be home favorites either way. Still, it’s not as sure of a thing as the Cowboys’ situational trend. At the end of the day though, I’m taking the points and hoping for a close game.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay +7

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-9)

Ordinarily, teams dominate after a Monday Night Football blowout win, carrying over the momentum from a big win into next week’s game. Since 2002, teams are 32-13 ATS off of a Monday Night Football win over 21 or more. The Bears only beat the Cowboys by 17, but that was only because of a last second touchdown by Joseph Randle that didn’t matter at all. Even though teams that win by 17 to 20 points are 11-10 ATS the following week, I think we might be able to still apply the logic here. I don’t think a meaningless last second touchdown will kill all of the Bears’ momentum. On top of that, teams that lead by 21 or more after 3 quarters of a Monday Night Football game are 21-12 ATS the following week and the Bears led 35-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

However, while that meaningless late second probably didn’t kill the Bears’ momentum, bringing back Jay Cutler and sending Josh McCown to the bench might. McCown was amazing in 5 starts in place of Cutler this season. His 3-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story considering how bad the Bears’ defense has been this season. I kept waiting for him to shit the bed and remind us why he was a 34-year-old career backup who last posted a quarterback rating of over 70 in 2006, but he never did, bringing back flashes of Rich Gannon. All in all, he completed 66.8% of his passes for an average of 8.22 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and an interception.

Jay Cutler hasn’t been bad this season, but his numbers actually pale in comparison to McCown’s. Cutler is completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.20 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season. Even worse, he might not be 100% in his first game back from injury, like against Detroit when he completed 21 of 40 for 250 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. On top of that, his teammates could slack off knowing their starting quarterback is back, especially for an opponent like the Browns. We’re also not getting any line value with the Bears anymore, as they are 1.5 point favorites here in Cleveland.

You might look at this line and think “how can the Bears possibly not win by 2 or more in Cleveland?” However, they lost in Minnesota just two weeks ago. Their offense has been supporting this team, moving the chains at a 75.94% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 75.60% rate. The Browns don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but they should have some success against this Chicago defense, so if Chicago’s offense doesn’t do what it’s been doing lately against a sneaky good Cleveland defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.31% rate, the Bears could easily lose this game. I have this game calculated at a straight up pick using rate of moving the chains, and that’s before you even get to the Bears’ quarterback switch.

The Bears are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs in Philadelphia next week. They could be distracted. Teams are 32-52 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Browns aren’t in a great spot either, as they will be underdogs once again in New York against the Jets next week, as non-divisional home underdogs are 93-112 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, but it’s not the same. The Browns could also be flat off of last week’s close loss in New England, but I don’t have any trend suggesting they would be. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bears and hoping their offense can carry them and their momentum from last week will carry over, but I’m not confident.

Chicago Bears 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Eagles, Uncategorized, Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1)

Earlier this season, a stat was floated around that the Eagles hadn’t won in 10 straight home games. They ended their home struggles over their recent three game home stand, by winning all 3, but what got lost in that was how good the Eagles were on the road. Since the start of last season, they are 8-6 ATS on the road. That doesn’t sound like much, but consider they are 2-13 ATS at home over that same time period. This year, now that they are actually good, they are 5-1 ATS on the road, with the one loss coming in Denver.

Nick Foles has been incredible on the road this season. He’s been incredible everywhere, but he’s been especially incredible on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.09 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles have won all 4 road games in which Nick Foles has led them in passing attempts by an average of 17.3 points per game. Overall, the Eagles are 7-1 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

At first glance, it doesn’t look like we’re getting any line value with the Eagles as 5.5 point favorites here in Minnesota. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -6.12% that ranks 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 4.

However, that doesn’t take into account how good the Eagles have been since Foles took over, how much of a non-factor (at the very least) going on the road is for Foles and the Eagles, and the fact that the Vikings could be without Adrian Peterson in this one. I shouldn’t need to tell you how important he is to this team, but the Vikings are 1-4 ATS without him in his career, with the exclusion of his rookie season.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Cincinnati next week and might not be focused enough to keep this one close and cover. Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010 and the Vikings could definitely be double digit underdogs in Cincinnati next week, considering they were touchdown underdogs in Baltimore last week. This would be a bigger play if the public weren’t all over Philadelphia, but they should be the right side. I’m somewhat confident as long as this line stays below 6. Philadelphia is also my Survivor Pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -5.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Panthers, Uncategorized

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4)

At first glance, the Panthers definitely seem like the right side. By all measures, the Panthers are a top-5 team and the Jets are probably a bottom-5 team. The Panthers’ +110 point differential is 4th in the NFL behind the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs. The Jets’ -111 point differential is 3rd worst in the NFL ahead of Washington and Jacksonville. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers rank 3rd and the Jets rank 26th, including 27th in weighted DVOA.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Panthers move the chains at a 76.19% rate, as opposed to 66.57% for their opponents, a 9.62% differential that is actually the best in the NFL. The Jets, meanwhile, come in next to last, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.91% rate, while only moving them at a league worst 62.37% rate, a differential of -6.55%. Given that, this line is actually too small at 11. I have this line calculated at 19, which makes sense if the Panthers are a top level team and the Jets are a bottom level team.

The Jets won last week, but needing a blocked punt return touchdown to beat the Raiders at home by 10 is nothing to write home about. The Jets also have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere, part of why the Jets are moving the chains at a league worst rate and have a league worst 18 offensive touchdowns.

However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season. He’s completed 55.5% of his passes for an average of 6.65 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 1 touchdown, and 12 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 21.4 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. The Jets are a terrible team, especially on the road.

The Panthers have done a great job of blowing out bottom level teams since the start of the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era. They haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-0 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, winning by an average of 20.2 points per game. The Panthers’ defense might be the best in the NFL, allowing 16 offensive touchdowns all season, with 4 of those coming in the Superdome last week. They should completely befuddle the Jets’ dysfunctional offense. I’d actually be shocked if the Jets got out of single digits offensively.

However, there are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, it’s possible that the Panthers overlook the Jets with a rematch against the Saints coming up next week. Two, the Jets, meanwhile, have no distractions here that would prevent them from covering this spread, as they host the lowly Browns next week. Teams are 49-32 ATS as double digit underdogs before being favorites since 2002, while non-divisional road dogs are 100-65 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. The Panthers should still be the right side and get a blowout victory, but I’m not really confident or anything.

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Jets 6

Pick against spread: Carolina -11

Confidence: Low

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