2013 Week 16 NFL Picks

New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Lions, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-9) at Detroit Lions (7-7)

In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past week, the Lions have a turnover problem. Despite their 7-7 record, the Lions have a turnover margin of -13, which is 4th worst in the NFL and their 31 turnovers are the 2nd most in the NFL. The narrative around this has ranged from everything from fire Jim Schwartz (because, apparently, that’s his fault), to bench Matt Stafford for Shaun Hill (because, apparently, a 3.0% interception rate is bad), to the Lions don’t value the ball (whatever that means).

I look at this a different way. I look at them as a team that could be very dominant if they could ever have even just a neutral turnover margin. Even in last week’s debacle of a loss to the Ravens, they were a missed 61-yard field goal away from winning despite a -2 turnover margin (the 3rd turnover never would have been committed if Tucker’s field goal was a yard shorter). Teams that lose the turnover margin by 2 win just about 17.7% of the time. That would have been an accomplishment.

Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent and very easy to correct on both a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Even these Lions were +1 in turnovers through 9 games (6-3), before having a -14 turnover margin in the past 5 games (1-4). It’s the same team. Did they suddenly forget about the value of the ball? Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 and teams that have a turnover margin of -4 have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week. The same thing is essentially the same for teams with -5 and +5 turnover margins, -3 and +3 turnover margins, etc. Past turnover margins don’t seem to be a good predictor of future turnover margins. On top of that, part of the Lions’ poor turnover margin has to do with their mere 40.48% rate of recovering fumbles. That type of thing doesn’t continue. Covering fumbles isn’t a skill.

If none of these numbers convince you that we should assume net-zero turnovers for the Lions this week, how about this: the Lions are playing the Giants this week. The Giants. The Giants make the Lions look like a careful football team, turning the ball over 39 times on the season, most in the NFL, giving them a -17 turnover margin that is the 2nd worst in the NFL. The same thing applies for the Giants: we should assume net-zero turnovers for them going forward because of how inconsistent turnovers are, but if we’re assuming net-zero turnovers, the Lions have the clear advantage this week.

The Lions are moving the chains at a 74.52% rate, as opposed to 68.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.70% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, are 28th, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 71.40% for their opponents, a differential of -5.29%. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions, as the line should be around 13.5, instead of 9.5, where it is right now.

The Lions are also in a good spot, with no real distractions on the horizon, as they go to Minnesota next week. Teams are 51-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. On top of that, teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, as the Lions currently are expected to be next week. They have nothing keeping them from dominating an inferior opponent.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Giants are in a few good spots. They too have no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against the Redskins up next. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. The Giants historically also do very well as road underdogs, at least in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, dating back to 2004. They are 34-20 ATS as road underdogs since then.

On top of that, they’re in a good spot coming off of a home shutout and back-to-back blowout losses. Teams are 38-21 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points and 39-25 ATS off of a home game in which they didn’t score. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in those situations.

I don’t think they’re undervalued here because we’re still getting line value with the Lions, but if the Giants were playing anyone else this week or if the Lions had won last week, we would have significant line movement against the Giants after last week. Even still, this line has shifted from 7.5 to 9 in the past week. That doesn’t cross any key numbers, but it’s still worth noting. As for overlooked and embarrassed, those are self-explanatory. Those could both easily be true this week. Even still, I do like the Lions this week.

Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 10

Pick against spread: Detroit -9

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

Seattle at home is pretty much an auto-bet. They’ve been incredible at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 38-17 ATS at home, including 22-9 ATS as home favorites, and 11-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 14 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 18.57 points per game.

The Cardinals are a solid football team, better than average in fact. They move the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.45% that ranks 11th in the NFL. The Seahawks are obviously very good as well, moving the chains at a 73.77% rate, as opposed to 67.41% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 4th in the NFL. Using those, we can calculate the line at about 7 (the differences between the differentials plus 3 for home field).

However, that assumes that Seattle has a normal home field advantage, which they don’t. If anything, their home field advantage should be worth about 6 points. Since 2007, they outscore opponents by about 7.64 points per game at home by about 1.26 points per game in general. The difference between Seattle being at home and being at a neutral field in a sense is about 6, 6.5 points. If we use that for home field advantage, we get that this line should be around 10 or 10.5, which is exactly where it is.

Arizona also isn’t a very good road team. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and only won by a field goal over Tampa Bay and Tennessee. The only road win by more than a field goal they have came against Jacksonville, who is probably the worst team in the NFL. If the Cardinals lost by double digits in San Francisco and New Orleans, why wouldn’t they lose by double digits in Seattle? Even if we assume that playing in the Superdome is comparable to playing in Seattle, the Cardinals lost by 24 in New Orleans and I think playing in Seattle is even harder, at least this year.

The Seahawks are also in a couple of excellent spots as well. They have no upcoming distractions on the schedule as they just have to host the Rams next week. Teams are 42-25 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which they almost definitely will be for the Rams next week, given that they are for a superior Cardinals team. On top of that, they are riding quite a hot streak right now after shutting out the Giants at home last week. Tends tend to ride that into the next week, going 41-22 ATS since 1989 after shutting out a team on the road. I like Seattle a good deal this week.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Titans sit at 5-9 and need to win out to finish better than 6-10 so it’s something to consider, but this isn’t like a normal six and six situation. For one, this line isn’t 6 points everywhere. In fact, in the majority of places, it’s still at 5.5. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t climb to 6 and that doesn’t mean the six and six trend is something to completely ignore, but it’s worth noting this isn’t a true six and six situation. Two, the Titans could actually win out fairly easily. They will be favored by more than a field goal in each of their final two games, as they have a home game against the Texans after this one.  Even if this line does move all the way up to 6, it might not necessarily be a six and six situation.

The Titans are better than their 5-9 record would suggest. They have a point differential of just -29 and rank 19th in weighted DVOA. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move them at a 71.73% rate, as opposed to 72.25% for their opponents, both of which are pretty decent. Their differential of -0.52% is 18th in the NFL. They’re more talented than most teams that fit the six and six trend. That trend is based off the premise that some teams should not be big favorites against anyone. I don’t think the Titans are one of those teams.

Given that, I actually like the Titans a good deal this week. While the Titans are better than their record, the Jaguars are worse than their record, which is hard to do when you’re 4-10. However, that 4-10 record is buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Nine of their 10 losses have come by double digits and all 10 have come by at least a touchdown, which is relevant considering this line is still below a touchdown. Going off of that, over the past 2 seasons, in 15 home games, the Jaguars are just 2-13 and all 13 of those losses by come by more than a touchdown.

As a result of their many blowout losses this season, the Jaguars have easily the league’s worst point differential at -178. Only Washington at -129 is even close. They also rank dead last in DVOA, though Oakland does rank behind them in weighted DVOA. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 63.77% rate, as opposed to 75.70% for their opponents. Not only is that -11.93% differential the worst in the NFL, but no other team has a differential worse than -6.23% (the NY Jets).

Now they’re without top receiver Cecil Shorts and may also be without Maurice Jones-Drew again. Not only do the Titans deserve to be big favorites here, even on the road, but I think we’re actually getting line value with them. This line should be bigger, somewhere around 8.5. In spite of that, the public is actually all over the underdog. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, especially when the public is on the underdog. Whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. The public was all over the Jaguars as an underdog last week. How’d that work out?

On top of that, Tennessee is also in a very good spot. I mentioned they have Houston next week, so they have no distractions that would prevent them from dominating a significantly inferior opponent. Teams are 39-22 ATS since 2002 as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has to go to Indianapolis next week, which will be a bigger game for them than this one. Teams are 26-40 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. The Titans will also almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Indianapolis next week. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I like Tennessee a good deal this week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Tennessee -5.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The Saints lost last week in St. Louis in upset blowout fashion. However, they are in a good spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. This isn’t a new thing. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game. Losing to the Rams last week might have actually helped them this week for that reason. Another reason why losing to the Rams last week might help them this week is how good the Saints have been off of a loss over the past 5 or so seasons. Since 2008, they are 17-3 ATS off of a loss when they have both Sean Payton coaching and Drew Brees playing.

However, there’s one really good reason not to be confident in the Saints this week. They lost to the Rams! In blowout fashion! I know that’s contradictory to the first 3 paragraphs, but it’s not like last week’s loss in St. Louis was some huge fluke that should just be ignored. It’s part of a long trend of disappointment for the Saints on the road. So far this season, they’ve lost in New England, New York to the Jets, and St. Louis, gotten blown out in Seattle, and almost lost in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, both of which were against the spread losses as road favorites.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS.

This isn’t just a 2013 problem for the Saints. Since 2008, they are 30-9 ATS (35-6 straight up) at home when Drew Brees is under center and Sean Payton is on the sideline. That’s as opposed to 17-24 ATS (24-19 straight up) on the road. How are they suddenly supposed to beat a very good Carolina team on the road when they’ve struggled this much (relatively) there thus far this season and in recent seasons? I know it’s their 2nd straight road game, which is why I’m not confident in Carolina either, but so were the New England and Seattle games.

Speaking of that very good Carolina team, they rank 1st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.40% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 67.37% rate, a differential of 9.03%. The Saints aren’t too shabby in this area either, even after their loss to St. Louis, as they move the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 69.94% for their opponents, a differential of 7.78%. That’s 3rd in the NFL, but they still don’t do as well as Carolina and they definitely aren’t nearly as good away from the Superdome. This line suggests that these two teams are even on a neutral field. I don’t think that’s true.

On top of that, the Panthers are in a good spot as they will be road favorites of 3 or more in Atlanta next week, a situation teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012. Furthermore, teams are 113-84 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Again, I’m not that confident in the Panthers because there are things that work in New Orleans’ favor this week, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)

The Bengals lost last week pretty convincingly in Pittsburgh in a surprise loss that really shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone. The Bengals just aren’t the same team on the road. They’ve already lost pretty convincingly on the road to Cleveland and Baltimore (the Bengals needed an improbable Hail Mary to even send it to overtime), but they blew out the Browns in Cincinnati, in addition to the Steelers.

On the road, they are 2-5-1 ATS on the season, 3-5 straight up, and have a -16 point differential. Compare that to at home, where they are 6-0 ATS and straight up and have a +96 point differential, good for an average margin of victory of 16.00 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we are getting Cincinnati as mere touchdown favorites over the mediocre Vikings is a gift and an overreaction to a predictable Cincinnati road loss and a Minnesota home win against the Eagles. This line was at 9.5 a week ago. That’s a huge line movement.

Minnesota’s win over the Eagles was legitimate. It wasn’t fluky or anything. However, this line movement is ridiculous. Teams tend to struggle as road underdogs off of a win as big home underdogs, going 39-55 ATS as road underdogs after a win as home underdogs of 6 or more. That was an emotional upset win for the Vikings and it created a huge overreaction line movement. On top of that, teams are 18-27 ATS off of a win as home underdogs when their opponent is coming off of a loss as road favorites. We’re getting a good amount of line value with the Bengals as a result of what happened last week.

Even if this line was at 9.5 still, we’d be getting line value with the Bengals, who are one of the game’s elite teams because of their defense. Their offense is nothing special, moving the chains at a slightly above average 72.81% rate, but their defense is one of the best in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.15% rate. Even last week, the Steelers needed a fluky punt return touchdown to propel them to victory. That differential of 5.66% is the 6th best in the NFL and that doesn’t even take into account how much better the Bengals are here at home.

The Vikings, meanwhile, remain a mediocre team. Their offense is fine, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate, but their opponents move the chains at a 76.06% rate against their defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their -4.67% differential is 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be somewhere around 13 or 13.5, before you even take into account that the Bengals win the average home game by 16 points per game. This line is way too low.

The Vikings are also in a couple of bad spots here as they have another big game against the Lions up next, which could keep them from being as focused as they need to be for this one. Teams are 53-79 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. The Vikings will almost certainly be underdogs at home for the Lions next week. They were 6.5 point underdogs for the Eagles and the week before the odds makers agreed that the Lions and Eagles were basically even, making the Lions 2 point underdogs in Philadelphia. Things have changed since, but not enough to make the Vikings home favorites for the Lions. Also if the Vikings are going to be underdogs of 3 or more next week, which is very possible, they’re in even more trouble, as teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012.

There’s one reason I didn’t make this my Pick of the Week. I considered it. I really liked the Bengals and the Patriots a lot this week and almost made this my Pick of the Week and the Patriots just a high confidence pick because of Baltimore’s home dominance, but I decided against it for one reason. Matt Cassel is playing very solid football this year, since taking over as the starter, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 7.75 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

As a result, the Vikings have won 2 of their last 3, with those wins coming against current division leaders Philadelphia and Chicago, with the loss coming by a field goal in Baltimore, a very tough place to win. However, I don’t think this is sustainable. He’ll have to come back down to Earth eventually and what better place to do so then on the road against a very tough Bengals defense in a very tough place to not only win, but even keep it close. It’s enough to keep this from being a Pick of the Week, but I still really like the Bengals this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

The two spots the Tom Brady led Patriots are most dangerous in are both in play this week. The Tom Brady led Patriots dominate off of a loss and they dominate when not favored by 3 or more. In his career, Tom Brady is 29-15 ATS off of a loss. There’s a reason why the Patriots have lost back-to-back regular season games just 4 times over the past 10 years. When not favored by 3 or more (which includes games in which they are favored by 2.5 or fewer or games in which they are underdogs), the Patriots are 41-17 ATS.

Combining those two, Tom Brady is 17-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer off of a loss in his career. This is a huge eff you situation for Tom Brady and the Patriots. They’ve had to hear for two weeks how they are done without Rob Gronkowski and things will only get worse now that they lost last week. In reality, the Patriots were a play away from a big road win against a quality opponent and had more yards and more first downs than the Dolphins (453 to 378 and 29 to 20). They beat the Saints earlier this season without Rob Gronkowski.

I’m not saying his absence doesn’t hurt their long-term Super Bowl chances significantly, but they are still capable of great performances in the right situation. This is one of those situations. The Patriots have already won straight up against New Orleans and Denver in this situation this season, again even though they were without Rob Gronkowski in the former. Baltimore is playing better football of late, but they don’t exactly fit into that group. If the Patriots can beat the Broncos and the Saints in this situation, they can beat the Ravens.

Yes, both of those games were in Gillette and the Patriots haven’t had a lot of success on road this season, as they are here. However, it helps that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. This isn’t a new thing. Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game.

This is also a very good situation for the Patriots as this is the last big game on their schedule, with only a home game against the Bills left on their schedule. The Ravens, meanwhile, still have to go to Cincinnati, a much tougher game that will have major playoff implications. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 81-98 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs.

Combining those, teams are 86-54 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. It makes sense. The Patriots don’t have any distractions that would keep them from pulling this upset, while the Ravens also have to focus on the Bengals next week. I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook an opponent like the Patriots, but they’re definitely in the worse spot.

This is also a huge revenge game for the Patriots, who lost to the Ravens twice last season. The Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games to an opponent, but when they do, they are 9-5 ATS in the 3rd game. Along with the Denver game, this is one game the Patriots have definitely had circled all season. They’ll put forth their best effort, especially off of a loss. Again, I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook them, but they have other things going on that could easily lead to them not being as focused as the Patriots here.

One other thing that works against the Ravens is how close their big upset win in Detroit was last week. Teams are 24-40 ATS as home favorites since 2002 after a road win by 3 or fewer points as underdogs of 3 or more. That was such an emotional win, both in the way they won, on a last second 61-yard field goal, and the situation, as big road underdogs on Monday Night Football needing a win to stay in the playoff race. That could easily bleed into this game.

The only thing that works against the Patriots here is how good the Ravens are at home. The Ravens are 41-8 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. However, 6 of those 8 losses came to Peyton Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers (three times). I think Tom Brady and the Patriots would fit in there. That’s not enough to keep this from being my Pick of the Week.

On final note, I wouldn’t put any money on this game right away. Field goal protection with the Patriots is going to be so important. I mean it’s always important, but 19 of the Ravens’ last 33 games (including playoffs) and 9 of their 14 games this season have been decided by a field goal or less either way. If the Ravens do win, there’s a good chance it would be by a field goal. There’s a much better chance this line shifts from 2.5 to 3 than to the Patriots being favored or something, so it’s beneficial to wait a little bit, unless you start to see the line move down. The marginal benefit of this line moving up is so much more than the marginal benefit of this line moving down. Either way, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 20 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Week 15 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 15

Straight Up: 9-7

Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Pick of the Week: 0-0-1

High Confidence: 1-2

Medium Confidence: 1-0

Low Confidence: 5-4

No Confidence: 2-0

Upset Picks: 0-2

2013

Straight Up: 149-74-1 (.668)

Against the Spread: 131-86-7 (.604)

Pick of the Week: 8-6-1

High Confidence: 21-8

Medium Confidence: 29-19

Low Confidence: 36-22-2

No Confidence: 37-31-4

Upset Picks: 24-24

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 382 63 56 26 0 21 81.20%
2 San Diego 330 36 50 17 1 31 78.71%
3 New Orleans 318 42 50 17 8 30 77.42%
4 Carolina 293 34 56 16 3 26 76.40%
5 Chicago 309 40 58 19 4 28 76.20%
6 Dallas 288 40 71 15 1 26 74.38%
7 Green Bay 300 35 57 21 4 34 74.28%
8 Detroit 312 39 59 33 9 21 74.21%
9 New England 333 38 67 19 8 35 74.20%
10 Seattle 277 38 59 17 5 31 73.77%
11 Philadelphia 306 42 75 17 6 26 73.73%
12 Atlanta 285 32 58 25 8 24 73.38%
13 Cincinnati 285 39 68 25 8 20 72.81%
14 Kansas City 283 37 78 14 6 25 72.23%
15 Arizona 294 33 70 25 3 29 72.03%
16 Indianapolis 276 33 67 14 7 33 71.86%
17 Tennessee 272 35 69 23 5 24 71.73%
18 Pittsburgh 274 31 66 20 6 29 71.60%
19 Washington 300 32 72 29 11 21 71.40%
20 Minnesota 280 37 64 26 7 30 71.40%
21 St. Louis 253 29 69 17 11 24 69.98%
22 San Francisco 247 34 70 18 3 30 69.90%
23 Miami 254 31 70 21 7 34 68.35%
24 Cleveland 267 28 77 25 13 24 67.97%
25 Houston 274 24 75 25 11 32 67.57%
26 Oakland 244 30 74 28 3 27 67.49%
27 Tampa Bay 237 25 78 18 11 26 66.33%
28 Baltimore 259 24 80 22 5 37 66.28%
29 Buffalo 264 28 86 26 7 30 66.21%
30 NY Giants 251 26 77 39 6 20 66.11%
31 Jacksonville 237 20 86 24 13 23 63.77%
32 NY Jets 233 20 80 29 6 31 63.41%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Baltimore 242 26 88 20 6 31 64.89%
2 San Francisco 240 25 77 26 12 20 66.25%
3 Kansas City 265 29 78 35 9 22 67.12%
4 Cincinnati 255 25 78 24 7 28 67.15%
5 Carolina 238 18 60 27 7 30 67.37%
6 Seattle 255 18 69 33 7 23 67.41%
7 Buffalo 278 35 81 27 5 32 68.34%
8 Detroit 256 31 72 18 3 37 68.82%
9 Houston 240 35 79 10 4 29 69.27%
10 Arizona 280 31 73 28 9 26 69.57%
11 NY Jets 256 33 72 10 9 35 69.64%
12 New Orleans 246 27 70 17 6 26 69.64%
13 Pittsburgh 262 34 69 16 8 30 70.64%
14 Miami 287 28 66 23 7 33 70.95%
15 Cleveland 286 37 81 19 4 28 70.99%
16 NY Giants 291 31 71 22 9 27 71.40%
17 New England 300 33 72 25 11 24 71.61%
18 Tampa Bay 285 32 60 29 4 29 72.21%
19 Tennessee 295 33 67 20 2 37 72.25%
20 Indianapolis 282 33 65 21 7 28 72.25%
21 Denver 308 41 74 23 10 23 72.86%
22 Oakland 278 42 70 19 4 22 73.56%
23 Philadelphia 329 34 65 26 10 28 73.78%
24 St. Louis 303 36 64 27 6 22 74.02%
25 Green Bay 292 38 60 18 7 29 74.32%
26 Atlanta 290 40 53 19 4 33 75.17%
27 Chicago 300 38 54 25 4 27 75.45%
28 Jacksonville 308 44 67 20 2 24 75.70%
29 Washington 299 47 63 21 5 21 75.88%
30 Minnesota 330 45 66 19 6 27 76.06%
31 San Diego 291 33 55 15 5 26 76.24%
32 Dallas 350 45 53 26 7 25 78.06%

 

Differential

Team
1 Carolina 9.03%
2 Denver 8.34%
3 New Orleans 7.78%
4 Seattle 6.36%
5 Cincinnati 5.66%
6 Detroit 5.38%
7 Kansas City 5.11%
8 San Francisco 3.65%
9 New England 2.59%
10 San Diego 2.47%
11 Arizona 2.45%
12 Baltimore 1.39%
13 Pittsburgh 0.95%
14 Chicago 0.75%
15 Green Bay -0.04%
16 Philadelphia -0.05%
17 Indianapolis -0.39%
18 Tennessee -0.52%
19 Houston -1.70%
20 Atlanta -1.79%
21 Buffalo -2.13%
22 Miami -2.60%
23 Cleveland -3.02%
24 Dallas -3.69%
25 St. Louis -4.04%
26 Washington -4.48%
27 Minnesota -4.67%
28 NY Giants -5.29%
29 Tampa Bay -5.88%
30 Oakland -6.08%
31 NY Jets -6.23%
32 Jacksonville -11.93%

 

Projected Week 16 Lines

CIN/MIN 13.33
CAR/NO 4.26
TEN/JAX 8.41
DEN/HOU 7.04
STL/TB 4.84
BUF/MIA 3.47
WAS/DAL 2.21
CLE/NYJ 0.21
KC/IND 8.50
SEA/ARZ 6.91
DET/NYG 13.67
BAL/NE 1.80
GB/PIT 2.00
SD/OAK 11.55
PHI/CHI 2.19
SF/ATL 8.44