2013 Week 2 NFL Picks

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Chip Kelly’s offense looked very good in its first real test against Washington, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I’ll need to see it against a better defense. Washington might have the worst secondary in the NFL. I believe the offensive line can’t continue its dominance as long as it’s healthy and that both LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson can continue to be serious weapons in Chip Kelly’s offense, but I need to see Vick make harder difficulty throws. He was throwing to open guys all night. ProFootballFocus agrees, actually grading him below average as a passer for his game. I also have a lot of concerns about this defense and their ability to stop guys even when they can’t force turnovers. It’s a good start, but it’s important to not get ahead of ourselves.

I don’t know if the Chargers are a good defense, but they’re better on that side of the ball than Washington. More importantly, they have a week of tape and a week to prepare so they won’t be caught off guard as much as the Redskins were. It’s unclear how much that will help though, especially with this game being at 1 PM ET, so I don’t really want to bet against the Eagles, but I can’t pick them here. I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a touchdown or more. They could also be caught looking forward to their game against Andy Reid and the Chiefs next Thursday, just 4 days after this one. Favorites are just 5-13 ATS the week before a Thursday Night game since the start of last season.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 San Diego Chargers 23

Pick against spread: San Diego +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

After forcing just 16 takeaways last season, the Cowboys forced 6 against the Giants week 1. They won’t do that every week, but it’s just another sign that takeaways are very inconsistent on a year to year basis. They’re also very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis unfortunately for the Cowboys as teams who win the turnover battle by 5 have a turnover margin of -0.4 the following week on average. Their secondary will have to play better next week, but the good news is that injury filler starters Nick Hayden and George Selvie dominated in their first career start. So much for them having no depth. Once Jay Ratliff and Anthony Spencer return, they could have a loaded front. Spencer is expected back this week, though probably in a limited fashion.

Kansas City, meanwhile, apparently really impressed the odds makers last week with their 28-2 win in Jacksonville as this line has shifted from PK to -3 in one week, despite the Cowboys’ strong showing. They certainly looked good last week and I picked them to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season. They have a lot of talent around the quarterback, especially if Dontari Poe keeps this up, and Alex Smith and Andy Reid are infinitely better than Romeo Crennel and Brady Quinn and will stabilize a turnover margin that was a league worst -24 last season. However, we’ve lost all line value with the Chiefs. I also don’t think the Chiefs are the type of team, with Alex Smith under center, capable of beating high quality teams. They have an easy schedule, but this is not one of their easy games.

The Cowboys were one of my pre-season underrated teams too, because of their overall talent level, their new defensive system, and the fact that they wouldn’t be nearly as bad in turnover margin as last season. They won’t win the turnover battle by 5 this week, but they might not need to do so to win here in Kansas City. I don’t think these two teams are equal, as this line suggests. The NFC is just so much better than the AFC. Over the past 2 seasons, the AFC is 6-17 ATS as favorites against the NFC. I’m not going to put anything on it, in case the Cowboys’ can’t fix their secondary problems, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

The Falcons lost last week in New Orleans, but now they return home where it’s always been a different story for the Falcons under Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is 33-7 at home in his career and 24-15 ATS and 21-12 ATS as home favorites. Matt Ryan is also great off a loss, going 17-4 ATS in his career off of a loss. Given that, it’s kind of absurd this line is only -6.

I agree that the Falcons won’t have nearly as good of a record as last season. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013. In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. That’ll be impossible this year playing a first place schedule in the loaded NFC.

The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgrade from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. The only real addition was the upgrade from the washed up Michael Turner to the almost washed up Steven Jackson at running back. Their week 1 performance supports that projection, but this line is still absurdly low.

The Rams might be just as overrated as the Falcons, possibly more because the odds makers seem to know that the Falcons are overrated. The Rams and Cardinals are very equal teams. The field goal game they played last week just supports that. Like the Cardinals, the Rams will probably finish with 6-7 wins. They went 7-8-1 last season, but I don’t think they match that, even with their increase in talent level.

If they didn’t add all they added this off-season, they would have been even worse. Teams that have big win improvements like the Rams did last season usually regress about half of that improvement the following season. There are unsustainable things about the Rams’ 2012 season. They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL.

The Rams do have talent, but they’re going to have a hard time competing in the NFC. I have a hard time seeing them going into Atlanta and being competitive, but it’s not a high confidence play because of how often the Falcons have been playing close games over the past year or so. Including playoffs, 8 of their 14 wins last season were by a touchdown or less. That scares me, even with the line only at -6. I’d be more confident at -5.5 The Falcons should be the right side though.

Atlanta Falcons 27 St. Louis Rams 19

Pick against spread: Atlanta -6

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

I’ve flip-flopped on this one so many times because it’s tough to know what to expect from Robert Griffin. Robert Griffin threw 4 interceptions all last regular season. Now he has 4 interceptions in his last 2 games combined, including the playoff loss to Seattle. It’s worth noting that Tom Brady had one of the worst seasons of his career in the season after returning from his ACL tear and he had 4 months extra to recover and had no prior injury. He also wasn’t nearly as reliant on his legs as Griffin. Griffin wasn’t stepping into throws and took off running just 5 times against Philadelphia. He’ll improve as the season goes on, but it’s very possible we don’t see 2012 RG3 until 2014.

On the other hand, he did look better later in the game as he seemed to grow more comfortable with his legs and in the pocket. It’s understandable he would struggle in his first game back considering he didn’t play at all in the pre-season. Perhaps he can be noticeably better this week. On the other hand, the Packers’ defense is much more talented than the Eagles’ defense, especially if Morgan Burnett returns (he’s listed as questionable and will probably be a game-time decision).

At the same time, the Packers’ defense just does not seem to be able to stop good dual threat quarterbacks. Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers is 63 years old and one of the oldest coaches in the NFL. He just does not seem to be able to adapt to this new offensive fad. After watching Colin Kaepernick beat the Packers’ twice in two different ways, I would not be comfortable taking them to cover a large spread against Robert Griffin. At the same time though, Griffin only took off 5 times last week. He’s not the same runner he was last season. But, at the same time, even if he isn’t, it could still be an asset if the Packers try to play the Redskins like they played the 49ers last week regardless, which would make it much easier for Griffin to complete passes downfield.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the Packers to make a statement bounce back game. I really believe this is just not the Redskins’ year. They have massive holes on defense that were masked up last season by an incredible offense, as a result of Robert Griffin throwing an interception on just 1.0% of his passes, the team recovering about 67% of fumbles that hit the ground, and Griffin being a threat to run, which, in turn, made life much easier for Alfred Morris. Morris rushed for just 45 yards on 12 carries in the opener. The Packers, meanwhile, are 13-4 ATS since 2009 off a loss. They should cover, but I’m not confident.

Green Bay Packers 34 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

The Lions won just 4 games last year despite outgaining opponents by the 2nd most yardage in the NFL, by over 1000 yards. This is largely because they surrendered a ridiculous 70 points on return touchdowns, without scoring once in that fashion. If you take that out of the equation, the Lions would have outscored their opponents on the season (they also were terrible in close games, something that should turn around in 2013). That alone should get them to 8 wins.

That return touchdown margin should even out for 2 reasons. The first is that their special teams, which were responsible for 4 of those return touchdowns allowed, should improve. That type of thing is inconsistent on a year to year basis largely because special teams personnel is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. The Lions have changed their punter, kicker, and both of their return men. The rest of their special teams personnel should look largely different as well. I’m not worried about their special teams being as bad as they were last season and that won’t just help eliminate that 10 touchdown gap, but it’ll help give them better field position.

The second reason is that I think they’re unlikely to allow 6 return touchdowns on 33 turnovers again, a ridiculous 18.2% rate. Ordinarily, teams who turn the ball over 33 times allow an average of 2 return touchdowns off of them over the course of the season. They’re probably score at least once or twice on return touchdowns this season, something they didn’t do last season. Add in the fact that the Lions suffered the 9th most injuries in the NFL last season and recovered the 2nd lowest percentage of fumbles recovered on the ground and this is a team that will be much closer to the 10 wins they had in 2011 than the 4 wins they had in 2012.

They certainly looked the part week 1 against the Vikings, but now they are road favorites in Arizona, who I think is an underrated team. They’re an equal caliber team to St. Louis, who they played tight in a field goal loss last week. Carson Palmer is infinitely better than the John Skelton/Ryan Lindley/Brian Hoyer combination that played the last 10 games of last season, going 1-9 and throwing 18 interceptions to 3 touchdowns in the process. He has 3 talented receivers to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald, Michel Floyd, and Andre Roberts and Head Coach Bruce Arians’ system fits their personnel perfectly. Their defense remains a solid unit. They won’t be a pushover for the Lions. However, the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -1.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

The Saints’ won their first game of the season with Sean Payton returning and now have won 10 straight home games with Payton as Head Coach, which includes the entirety of the 2011 season. It was an impressive win over a solid Atlanta team, but they are definitely helped by their home field advantage. Their real tests this season are going to come on the road, especially outside. Since 2008, Drew Brees has completed 68.2% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 135 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions inside, while completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA, 57 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions outside. That’s a difference of about 11 points of QB rating.

This week they go to Tampa Bay, who actually beat them in Tampa Bay in 2011, when the Saints went 13-3 and the Buccaneers went 4-12. Now, the Saints are probably not as good as a 13-win team and the Buccaneers aren’t as bad as a 4-win team. They can’t be overlooked for that reason.The Buccaneers have a ton of non-quarterback talent, even without Carl Nicks, who might suit up this week after returning to practice and declaring himself MRSA free, but probably not for conditioning reasons. Between Darrelle Revis, Dashon Goldson, Lavonte David, Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, and Vincent Jackson, they still have 6 of my top-200 players in the NFL on the field this week and solid starters all over the place after them.

The problem is the quarterback Josh Freeman. It’s becoming more and more evident that Josh Freeman will not last the season. First the Buccaneers drafted Mike Glennon in the 3rd round and then refused to call Freeman the long-term starter. Then they voted him out as team captain, which almost never happens. Now there are reports that he’s overslept and missed meetings and missed the team pictures and other reports that there is something really wrong with him off the field.

Freeman certainly didn’t do anything to help his cause week 1, completing 15 of 31 for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He’ll probably have a better game this week against the Saints as the Saints’ defense, even at its best, is not as good as the Jets’ defense, and he’s been incredibly streaky in his career and shown he’s capable of great games, which scares me if I were going against him, especially with the Saints playing on the road, outside. However, I can’t wager anything significant on Freeman at this point.

New Orleans Saints 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

The Ravens lost last week 49-27 in Denver, a final score that could have had an even bigger margin, but it’s important to remember it’s just one game. Peyton Manning had the game of his (and a lot of other people’s) life. I still think this is the best team in the AFC North and that they’ll make the playoffs in the weak AFC. I trust what Ozzie Newsome did this off-season.

Plus remember, they were up 17-14 in the 3rd quarter. Losing right tackle Michael Oher mid-game certainly didn’t help things as 5th round rookie replacement Ricky Wagner was rag-dolled by the previously washed up Shaun Phillips, who couldn’t do anything against Oher. Oher is back in the lineup, which is good news.

The other good news is that the Ravens are back home here this week. They’re a much better home team than road team, going 29-5, outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game, at home since 2009, as opposed to 21-20, outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game, on the road. It’ll be an extra boost that this is the Ravens’ first home game since their Super Bowl, so they’ll have a big ceremony before the game.

Ordinarily, defending Super Bowl champs do really well Week 1, winning 12 straight before the Giants lost last season and going 31-14-1 all-time before this season. The Ravens didn’t win last week obviously, but the fact that they had to open on the road probably had something to do with that. I thought the disrespect of opening on the road would counteract that last week when I picked the Ravens, but apparently not. However, they should have the kind of energy we’re used to from a week 1 defending champ this week in their home opener. Also it’s worth noting that John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS after a 10+ point loss. This feels like a blowout.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence Level: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

The Panthers were my biggest sleeper coming into the season. In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit. Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively

I’m certainly not giving up on the Panthers after they played tough a Seahawks team that could easily win the Super Bowl. Their defense looked as dominant as I expected, particularly the front 7, even further fortified by the addition of Star Lotulelei. However, their offense didn’t look good, even against a tough Seattle defense. The Panthers admitted their game plan was too conservative and it really was as they frequently eschewed 4th and 1 chances and just 6 of Newton’s 23 attempts went 10+ yards downfield. That’s not even close to how you best utilize Cam Newton.

I’ll give them another chance and I like how the coaching staff admitted their mistake, but if they don’t live up to their talent, it’ll be because of the Ron Rivera/Mike Shula combination.That being said, I’m fairly confident that they’ll be able to beat the Bills by 3 or more. On top of everything I just said, the NFC is just so much better than the AFC this year so I’m frequently going to take the NFC team when there’s a non-conference matchup.

Carolina Panthers 27 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence Level: Medium

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Denver Broncos at New York Giants: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

This line was at Denver -3 before week 1, but has moved to Denver -5 since, which doesn’t sound that significant, but it skipped over two key numbers in 3 and 4. Over 21% of NFL games are decided by either 3 or 4 points. I think that’s an overreaction. Peyton Manning obviously had the game of his life last week, throwing 7 touchdowns, but that’s all it was: the game of his life. Just like when Tom Brady threw for over 500 yards week 1 a few seasons ago, it didn’t mean he suddenly became an even better quarterback. The Broncos are still without Von Miller and Champ Bailey defensively so that side of the ball is still an issue.

The Giants, meanwhile, turned the ball over 6 times last week, but they lost by just 5. Obviously, turning the ball over 6 times is not what you want to do, but the Giants very impressively kept it within 5 despite that. Since 1989, teams are 6-142 and lose by an average of 17.6 points per game when losing the turnover battle by 5. The Giants had a chance to win late and still kept it within a touchdown. The good news for the Giants: since 1989, teams that lose the turnover battle by 5, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 in the following game.

The bad news is that Eli is going to have a much harder time throwing 450 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Broncos this week, even if the Broncos’ defense is banged up, because of simple regression to the mean, just like in Peyton Manning’s case, but it’s safe to say the Giants won lose the turnover battle by 5 again, so they’ll have a very good chance to at least keep this one close. As long as the line is higher than 4, I think the Giants are the right side. They’re a very good team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-20 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. They are 18-8 ATS as dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Denver Broncos 31 New York Giants 30

Pick against spread: NY Giants +5

Confidence Level: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0)

The Vikings were one of the teams I predicted a big win change for. Part of the reason for this is the Vikings went from 3 wins to 10 last season. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 7 win increase is, on average, followed by a 3.5 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level.

However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. I’m not going to get into all the details again, but they were unsustainably good in close games (5-1), had unsustainably few injuries (2nd fewest in the NFL), and got an unsustainably good performance from Adrian Peterson. This season, they’re without top cornerback Antoine Winfield and they’re also without fullback Jerome Felton for the first 3 games. He was as valuable as a fullback could be last season and a big part of the reason why Peterson had such a big season.

Christian Ponder averaged just 6.1 yards per carry last season. How improbable was it that the Vikings made the playoffs despite this kind of quarterback play? Well, since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. Ponder was even worse without Percy Harvin, completing just 5.4 yards per attempt without him. Harvin is gone and replacements Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are washed up/injury prone and incredibly raw respectively.

The Vikings lost by 10 in the opener, but it was even worse than that. Detroit had 28 first downs and 469 total yards to 16 first downs and 330 total yards for Minnesota. Exclude Adrian Peterson’s 78-yard touchdown on his first carry and it would have been a 34-17 game and Peterson would have just managed 15 yards on 17 carries. They simply can’t rely on him to do what he did last year again. 93 rushing yards total isn’t bad, but he surpassed that 10 times last season. Ponder again struggled, completing 18 of 28 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.

This week, the Vikings go to Chicago and will play outside, where Christian Ponder especially struggles. In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for 5.7 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions outside, where his lack of arm strength is magnified. He’s been even worse in the Windy City in 2 starts, completing 33 of 60 (55.0%) for 258 yards (4.3 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, both blowout losses. I don’t feel like this line fully takes into account how bad the Vikings are going to be this season. It should probably be at -10 considering Ponder’s issues outside, so I like the Bears moderately as only 5.5 point favorites.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 12

Pick against spread: Chicago -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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