2013 Week 2 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Last week, he lost in Chicago, a team that may or may not be a playoff team, but they’re certainly the type of team he normally loses to. Andy Dalton played better in a near win, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions. This should continue to be something that works against the Bengals going forward. Its true Dalton has the best supporting cast of his career and one of the strongest supporting casts in the NFL, but he’s without his left tackle Andrew Whitworth right now and that’s a huge blow. He’s not expected to play this week.

It’s tough to know which category the Steelers will fall into this season, though they certainly looked like a non-playoff team in their opening game loss to the Titans by a score of 16-9. That final score doesn’t even fully illustrate how poorly they played offensively, as 2 of those points were on a safety, while their touchdown drive started with less than 4 minutes left in the game with the score pretty much out of reach.

However, they played well defensively, allowing just 16 points. I had the Steelers making the playoffs on the strength of their defense, which would be helped by the return of Troy Polamalu and, to a lesser extent, Ike Taylor from injury. They won’t make the playoffs if their offense doesn’t play better, but I don’t think it was as bad as it looked last week.

They lost starting center Maurkice Pouncey to a torn ACL early in the game. Pouncey is obviously out for the season, but at least the Steelers have a week to install a new center. It’s very tough to lose your center mid-game, especially a talented one like Pouncey, but you can survive without your center going forward, especially since the Steelers sign Fernando Velasco this week. Velasco was by far the best free agent center available, after being a final cut of the Titans, probably the most surprising final cut considering he was very solid as a starter in 2013. Credit the Steelers for picking him up. I don’t expect Ben Roethlisberger to be pressured on 40% of his drop backs again this week.

It’s also very possible that the Titans’ defense is better than we gave it credit for. They were dead last in the NFL in opponent’s scoring in 2012, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with largely the same personnel. It’s very possible they finish this season as a top-15 defense and that’s a conservative estimation. If that’s the case, the Steelers’ offensive performance doesn’t look so bad. At the same time, it’s possible that age (31) and all of his injuries have caught up to Ben Roethlisberger and/or that Roethlisberger is really being held back by Todd Haley’s system. Time will tell, but it’s definitely not time to rule out the Steelers as a playoff team.

If this line were -3, I wouldn’t take the Steelers solely off of Dalton’s past lack of success against playoff caliber opponents, but since we’re getting a full touchdown with the Steelers, I’m fairly confident that the Steelers are the right side here. Dalton is just 1-3 against the Steelers and Ravens in his career, with that one win coming by just a field goal against the Steelers last season. I think we’re seeing a field goal game either way with the Steelers playing a “don’t forget about us” game, regardless of outcome.

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +7

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)

Usually there are not a lot of changes in my Power Rankings from pre-week 1 to pre-week 2. I don’t like changing projections based on one week. The biggest move, by far, this week were the Tennessee Titans. In 2011, the Titans were 8th in the NFL in opponent’s scoring. In 2012, they were 32nd and I couldn’t exactly figure out why. They were one of the true wild cards of this season for me for that reason. I projected them closer to 2012 than 2011 defensively, but they certainly looked closer to 2011 than 2012 in Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to one late touchdown all game.

If they can continue that, they’re going to be tough this season and they certainly have the talent to. They have a deep defensive line led by Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan, who had great seasons last year. The former was phenomenal against Pittburgh and could be even better this year, in just his 3rd year in the league. Jason McCourty is a talented cornerback, while guys like Alterraun Verner, Akeem Ayers, Bernard Pollard, and Zach Brown are capable starters. The only hole in their back 7 is middle linebacker and possibly Michael Griffin’s spot at safety, depending on whether or not he can bounce back from the worst season of his career. So far, so good for him. The offense will hold them back and I don’t believe in Jake Locker, but they have a strong offensive line, a talented running back, and they can win games like they did last week if the defense continues this level of play.

Given that, I think this line is way too high at 9.5. Besides, the Texans have had a lot of trouble blowing out inferior opponents recently. Last week’s near loss to the Chargers stands out, but last season, they also had close calls with the NY Jets, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Detroit, with 3 of 4 being touchdown games and the Buffalo game being a lot closer than the final score. Because of their 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, their weak schedule, and their improbable 64.3% fumble recovery rate, the Texans actually finished last season as DVOA’s 11th ranked team, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily).

This is also a good spot for the Titans as they have nothing on the horizon to distract them. Houston won this division last year and is one of the most important games on their schedule, while next week’s game against San Diego looks relatively meaningless. This is opposed to Houston, who has to go to Baltimore next week. Since 2002, divisional underdogs of 7+ are 43-23 ATS before being non-divisional favorites. That just sums up the schedule related dynamic the Titans are in this week and it’s a good sign. I like the Titans’ chances to at least keep this one close.

Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee +9.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0)

Last season, no team’s record was less indicative of their talent level than the Colts’ 11-5 record. For one, they had a ridiculous record in games decided by a touchdown or less, going 9-1 in those types of games. In fact, they had just 2 wins by a touchdown or more, and one came against the 2-win Jaguars. Meanwhile, 3 of their 5 losses came by more than 20 points and only one of those teams made the playoffs. They lost 35-9 to the Jets! Overall, they were -30 on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 7.2 wins. They made the playoffs because they were ridiculously good at pulling out close wins. That type of stuff evens out in the long run.

All of those close wins would be more impressive if they weren’t against teams like Cleveland, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Buffalo. They had an incredibly easy schedule, playing just 6 games against teams that went 8-8 or better. While they went 3-3 in those 6 games, the wins were by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses were by 20, 35, and 12. Their season essentially consisted of them barely beating bad teams and getting blown out by good teams.

They had just 1 win by more than a field goal against a team better than 6-10 and it was a week 17 game against the Texans. Once they got to the playoffs, they were just overmatched by the Baltimore Ravens, who beat them 24-9.When you combine their ridiculous record in close games and their weak schedule, the advanced metrics did not like them. They ranked 25th in DVOA and had the lowest DVOA by an 11-win team in DVOA’s 22 year history, dating back to 1991.

I thought the Colts would be improved over last season (in talent, not record). They spent a lot of money in free agency and while they didn’t get great value, it would be hard to argue they got worse this off-season. On top of that, they have Andrew Luck going into his 2nd year in the NFL in a system under Pep Hamilton that fits him a lot better than Bruce Arians’ downfield throw offense.

However, barely beating the Raiders, after winning 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last season, doesn’t inspire any confidence. Andrew Luck looked good, completing 18 of 23 for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns, while rushing for another 39 and a score on 6 carries, and he could be on his way to a much improved 2nd season in the league, though it’s tough to tell against a defense like Oakland. However, both their defense and their offensive line looked just as bad as it was last season, despite all the money they spent.

Their opponent this week, the Dolphins, isn’t the type of pushover they are used to facing and barely beating. They’re not a great team by any stretch of the imagination and I don’t have them in the playoffs, but they are probably going to finish with 7-9 wins and I think they’re a better team than the Colts. This line suggests these two teams are equal, which I don’t think is the case. The public is also putting everything on the Colts, just like they did last week, because they seem to think that the Colts can rely on Andrew Luck pulling a win out of his ass every week. That’s not sustainable. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Colts lost a close one here, rather than winning a close one, and I’m fairly confident in Miami +3 this week.

Miami Dolphins 27 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

I feel like I talk about the Seahawks’ home/road disparity every week. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game. They are 34-15 ATS at home in that span. Last week, they had a very impressive win in Carolina. It might not seem like a 5 point win over the Panthers is that impressive, but if the Panthers are as good as I think they are, it is, especially in Carolina at 1 PM ET.

It’s very possible they’ve carried over their strong finish to last season, in which they were better both home and away, finishing 7-1 in the regular season, including road wins in Chicago and a road blowout win in Buffalo. If that’s true, they’re going to be near impossible to beat at home, even for San Francisco. Last year at home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9), beating 4 eventual playoff teams. During their 7-1 stretch last season, they had wins of 28-7, 58-0, 50-17, and 42-13 at home, the latter of which was actually against San Francisco.

The big reason for their improvement in their past 11 games, including last year’s playoffs, has been the play of Russell Wilson, who shook off a slow start to his rookie season and now is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In his last 11 games, including playoffs, he’s completed 187 of 278 (67.3%) for 2544 yards (9.2 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Because of the Seahawks’ home dominance, this line should be at least -6, which would suggest that these two teams are even (which is being conservative if Seattle is really as good as they’ve looked in their last 11 games), but that Seattle has an absurd home field advantage that’s worth at least 6 points, which historical and recent data suggests is the case. Instead, the line is at -2.5. I’m not betting against Seattle at home, especially during a week in which they are going to attempt to set the World Record for loudest stadium. This is actually my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Raiders, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

This is a situation where I think we can safely say that a team is going to go 6-10 or worse with the Raiders favored by 6 points here at home against the Raiders. Sure, the Raiders kept it close with the Colts last week, hanging within 4 points on the road of a team that went 11-5 last year. However, that’s a little misleading. The Colts won 7 games by 7 points or fewer against 7 win or worse teams last season. They’re not as good as their record suggests. That included the 2-14 2012 Chiefs and they also lost to the 2-14 2012 Jaguars. The Raiders’ near win in Indianapolis is not a sign that they won’t be as bad as everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season.

The Jaguars aren’t good either. In fact, these are probably the two worst teams in football and by a wide margin, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be favored by 6+ against anyone. If you played this game under perfectly normal circumstances 100 times, the Raiders would probably win on average by about 3 points and this line should be -3 (which would suggest that these teams are equal and that Oakland is at home). However, these aren’t perfectly normal circumstances. The Raiders are also in a bad spot as favorites of 3 or more are 19-40 ATS since 1989 after being dogs of 7+ and before being dogs of 7+. Not only do the Raiders not deserve to be big favorites here, they also could view this as a breather week, especially after last week and especially with a trip to Denver on the horizon next week.

The Jaguars also are upgrading their quarterback situation this week, though not by their decision as Blaine Gabbert is out with injury. Gabbert was miserable last week in a 28-2 home loss, completing just 16 of 35 for 121 yards and 2 interceptions without a score, but even worse is that just 22 of his yards came through the air. The rest were after the catch. Chad Henne isn’t great either, but he was a noticeable upgrade last season, completing 53.9% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Gabbert completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

Henne is at least capable of getting the ball to #1 receiver Cecil Shorts, who managed just 4 catches for 30 yards last week because of Blaine Gabbert under center and Brandon Flowers draped all over him. He doesn’t have either of these things this week as the Raiders’ secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Henne is under center. In 6 starts in which Cecil Shorts and Chad Henne started together last season, Shorts caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Finally, the Jaguars are in a good spot coming off such a poor performance last week. Teams are 39-25 ATS since 1989 after games in which they either didn’t score or only scored on a safety like the Jaguars did last week. Teams tend to be undervalued and overlooked in this situation. The Jaguars are certainly undervalued as 6 point underdogs against a horrible Oakland team. I’m pretty confident in the Jaguars covering this week.

Oakland Raiders 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge.

Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS , including 12-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more. This is a non-divisional game here so it doesn’t meet the qualifications, but we can still apply the logic. I would much rather take Tom Brady/Bill Belichick at home on a short week than Geno Smith/Rex Ryan on the road on a short week, especially considering well the Patriots do against rookie quarterbacks (14-4).

I also think this line is an overreaction to last week. The Patriots are 11.5 point favorites here at home, which is essentially what they were last week in Buffalo. I don’t think the Jets are significantly better than the Bills so this is what I call an overreaction line. Of course, the Patriots didn’t cover last week in Buffalo, but that’s where the overreaction comes from.

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward. I care more about the Patriots’ 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. Besides, there’s no shame in failing to cover as double digit road favorites. Going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-9 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-16 ATS. It’ll be a different story at home.

I also expect the Patriots to have a chip on their shoulder in this game after what happened last week. Good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS, including 18-5 ATS off a win. If the Patriots weren’t missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola, this would be a stronger confidence pick, but we lost some line value because the line didn’t really move when those two were ruled out.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England -11.5

Confidence: Low

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