2013 Week 3 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Falcons have been destroyed by injuries thus far this season. Talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least 8 weeks after being put on short-term IR this week, taking away one of the few average or better starters the Falcons have on that side of the ball. Kroy Biermann, meanwhile, is out for the season with injury. He’s not the caliber of player that Weatherspoon is, but his absence will thin an already weak pass rush and force inexperienced youngsters into more action.

On top of that, they lost left tackle Sam Baker for at least this game. He’s really struggled thus far through 2 games, but his absence will force Lamar Holmes, who was already struggling on the right side, to play on the left side, while Jeremy Trueblood will start at right tackle. When we last saw Trueblood as a starter, he was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the NFL, leading the NFL in quarterback hurries allowed in 2011. This offensive line was already struggling after losing both Tyson Clabo and Todd McClure this off-season, but Baker’s absence won’t make things better. Cameron Wake could dominate Lamar Holmes on the blindside.

They’ve also lost Steven Jackson for about 3 weeks with injury. In his absence, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling will handle the load, which could definitely be a concern. After Jackson went down last week, they managed just 36 yards on 13 carries. The organization has previously never seen either as a lead back type, starting the plodding Michael Turner ahead of them last season, which is not a positive sign for their ability to carry the load in Jackson’s absence.

Meanwhile, Roddy White is dealing with a high ankle injury that is seriously sapping his effectiveness. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez have had to step up in his absence and Jones had a huge game last week, catching 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. He probably won’t repeat that again, but he could still have a good game, even with a revitalized Brent Grimes likely matching up with him. Jones’ size advantage could be too much for White to overcome. Gonzalez could also have a big game, so I’m not too worried about the passing offense, but I have serious concerns about the offensive line, the defense, and the running game.

The fact that the Rams almost came back from what was once a 21-0 deficit to win last week, after all of the Falcons’ injuries, have to be concerning going forward. It’s especially concerning since Miami looks like a solid football team. They might not make the playoffs in the AFC, but they should at least win 8 games. It’s not going to be easy for the Falcons to come into Miami and win, especially considering their relative road struggles in the Matt Ryan era. We don’t have a lot of line value with the Dolphins as favorites, but I do like them to cover as short favorites. I’m not that confident in them though because they are making their home debut week 3, a situation teams are 20-40 ATS in since 1989. They could be exhausted from starting the season with two road games.

Miami Dolphins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against spread: Miami -2

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)

The Redskins aren’t making the playoffs in the loaded NFC after starting 0-2, but this wasn’t unpredictable. It’s going to take Robert Griffin a year or so to get back to where he was, just like it took Tom Brady when he tore his ACL in 2008. Mike Shanahan insists that the Redskins haven’t abandoned the read option and QB runs because of Griffin’s knee, but because of the game situation, as they’ve frequently been trailing and by a lot of points. That’s a very valid point, but it’s still very possible that Griffin isn’t comfortable running like he once did and either way, it’s probably going to remain a problem going forward.

This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL so they’re going to have to pass more than maybe they’d like. They’re starting two rookies in the secondary who are playing like it and the rest of the unit, outside of Kerrigan and Orakpo, is not much better. The Lions have the personnel to tear through their defense like Green Bay or Philadelphia did and establish another big lead. That will put the Redskins’ offense in situations where they can’t run their game plan and they probably wouldn’t be able to run it as effectively like they’d like to anyway because of Griffin’s injury situation. He’s just not as explosive as he was last year and his footwork and throwing mechanics are a mess.

The Redskins shouldn’t be favored here. The Lions are still a borderline playoff team in the loaded NFC in my eyes and one of the top-10 teams in the NFL overall. They only went 4-12 last year because of bad luck and other unsustainable things like inability to recover fumbles, turnovers going for touchdowns, poor special teams play, strength of schedule, and inability to win games decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t hold a loss in Arizona against them that much because Arizona is a capable football team and their week 1 win over Minnesota remains impressive.

Reggie Bush might miss this week with injury, but I’m not so sure that Joique Bell isn’t just as good. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. This year, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 13 targets and 37 routes run, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. He’ll have a big game against Washington’s poor defense if pressed into action.

The Lions are also in a situation that favors them as they’re road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 88-52 ATS in that situation since 2008 and that trend hits about 65% historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. I’m fairly confident they’ll pull off the “upset” win here in Washington this week.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Tom Brady completed under 50% of his passes in a game last week for the first time since 2009 and it took a perfect storm for that to happen. It was a combination of the worst receiving corps he’s ever worked with, a Thursday Night game, and terrible weather. Two of those situations will be gone this week as the Patriots actually have extra time to prepare for this one and the weather is expected to be fine. Unfortunately, their receiving corps probably won’t be much better. Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen remain out and, while you never know with the Patriots, if I had to guess right now, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski is going to play.

I definitely underestimated Tom Brady’s ability to get this new receiving corps assimilated before the season started. Brady has had success with receivers that haven’t been that good in the past, but they’ve always been veterans. The Patriots’ system is incredibly complex because of all the timing routes and it’s very understandable that it would be overwhelming for rookie receivers, who tend to take a while to get adjusted to the NFL anyway. Even Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez didn’t put up huge numbers as rookies. They’ll have to hope that extra time to prepare and another week under their belts will lead to superior play from their rookies, which is certainly possible.

Fortunately, the Patriots have been given a very easy schedule to start their season, starting with the Bills and Jets and now with the 0-2 Buccaneers in New England, who actually lost to the Jets week 1. The Buccaneers are in shambles right now. Josh Freeman has now completed 131 of 262 (50.0%) for 1639 yards (6.3 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his last 7 games, dating back to last season. Couple that with all of the reports coming out about him and it’s very hard to trust him to move the ball, especially against a Patriots defense that, at least early on, looks as good as it’s been in years.

As a result of Freeman’s struggles, the Buccaneers are converting just 60.5% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, which is only ahead of Jacksonville. Their defense is playing well, allowing just 72.9% of 1st and 10s to be converted for subsequent firsts, but the disparity is still the 3rd worst in the NFL, ahead of only Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Patriots, as bad as they’ve been offensively, actually rank 6th in this disparity, largely because their allowing opponents to convert just 55.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, 2nd behind only the Jets in the NFL. Facing the Bills and the Jets helps, but the Buccaneers have also faced the Jets so it’s not like these two teams have played completely different schedules.

I think the Patriots have a very good chance to break out this week. The Patriots have had just 1 three game stretch without a 7+ point win since 2006. Meanwhile, after games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-15 ATS, including 18-6 ATS off a win. I’m not willing to put a lot of confidence on it, but I really feel like this is the week they finally sort of resemble the Patriots. This season really reminds me of 2006.With a new receiving corps, Brady started the season completing 50% of his passes, even less than this year, in near upset losses to the Bills and Jets, but the Patriots eventually got their act together and went 12-4, before eventually losing in the AFC Championship. That narrative could repeat itself.

New England Patriots 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 24-3 at home since 2010. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of twice in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight. Given that, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

The Texans have not played well thus far this year, barely beating both Tennessee and San Diego. They won 12 games last year, but were not nearly as good as that would have suggested. Their Pythagorean Expectation was that of a 10 win team as they went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They also faced a very easy schedule, recovered an unsustainable high percentage of fumbles that hit the ground, and played their worst football down the stretch, which might have carried over somewhat into this season. They finished last year 11th in overall DVOA and 19th in weighted DVOA, which puts a higher weight on their later games.

That’s not the type of team that deserves to be favored in Baltimore, especially since left tackle Duane Brown, one of the best in the NFL, probably won’t play. Ray Rice, meanwhile, won’t suit up for the Ravens, but it’s much easier to replace him with talented backup Bernard Pierce than to replace one of the game’s premier blindside protectors with Derek Newton.

The trends also favor the Ravens. They are home dogs here before being road favorites next week in Buffalo. Teams are 55-34 ATS since 2002 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Texans are road favorites before being home dogs next week when Seattle comes to town. Teams are 37-62 ATS in that situation since 1989 as long as the game is non-divisional.

Put it all together and you get that teams are 6-2 ATS since 1989 as home dogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home dogs. I know it’s a very small sample size, but I think the fact that this is only the 9th time this situation has happened in 24 years is telling. The Ravens will be completely focused on this game, while the Texans could be caught looking forward to what they might see as a Super Bowl preview against Seattle next week. There’s a very good chance that Baltimore takes advantage and wins at home. They’re a great home team and Houston is a comparable, but not superior opponent.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Browns, Uncategorized, Vikings

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

This line has had tremendous line movement this week, going from -3.5 at the beginning of the week to -7 now. That’s significant as 23% of NFL games are decided by between 4-7 points. Why such a big shift? Well, Brandon Weeden has been ruled out with injury and Trent Richardson has been traded. However, I’m not sure losing Weeden is such a big deal. He’s completed just 54.7% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions while leading the Browns to a grand total of 16 points through 2 games.

Brian Hoyer could completely bomb, but he also completed 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions last season against Chicago and San Francisco, two of the better defenses in the NFL. I think it’s highly unlikely he’s a significant downgrade from Weeden. If anything, he could be better with Josh Gordon returning from suspension. Gordon was fantastic last season considering his quarterback situation, that he was rookie, and that he hadn’t really played football in 2 years. He caught 50 passes for 805 yards and 5 touchdowns on 89 targets and 506 routes run (1.58 yards per route run). Browns quarterbacks had a 90.9 QB rating when throwing to him, over 18 points better than their overall QB rating.

Richardson’s loss is bigger. He’s been one of the most elusive backs in the NFL over his first two years in the league in terms of breaking tackles and picking up yards after first contact, but from a production standpoint, his 3.5 career YPC isn’t going to be that hard to replace, especially if they get better offensive line play. Billed as one of the sneaky good offensive lines in the NFL coming in the season, the Browns’ offensive line has definitely struggled thus far this season, but they will have all 5 starters healthy this week for the first time all season.

There’s really no reason why the Vikings should be favored by a whole touchdown over them, but the public is so scared off of them. That’s giving us line value. The Vikings should not really be favored by a whole touchdown over anyone, except probably Jacksonville. They are one of eight 0-2 teams, but their problems go deeper than that. Their week 1 loss by 10 points was just one of 4 games decided by more than a touchdown that week, one of 10 decided by more than a touchdown so far this season. They could have lost by a lot more considering they were outgained 28 to 16 in first downs and 467 to 330 in total yards. Last week, they only lost by one, but they did so despite winning the turnover battle, which only happens about 21% of the time. They can rely on that going forward.

Overall on the season, they are converting just 68.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to 78.8% for their opponents, a differential that is 28th in the NFL ahead of only these Browns (who aren’t far behind them at 29th), Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. I had them winning just 5 games at the beginning of the season and they have shown me no reason to change that prediction. Given that, they do not deserve to be favored by a touchdown here.

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse. The Vikings may or may not finish with that poor of a record, but that trend is still relevant to this game.

They’re also in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you and they could also coast now that they’re at home, especially since they have an easier opponent. They could have a very hard time focusing at home for the lowly non-conference Browns after playing tough games in Detroit and Chicago, both divisional foes. After this game, they play in London against the Steelers. They could be looking forward to that.

There is also another trend that favors the Browns. They are road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 88-52 ATS since 2008 and have historically covered in about 65% of the time, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. I like Cleveland a good deal to cover this week, especially with all of the close games that have happened early on this season. Their defense should make this one tight and I really don’t trust Christian Ponder to cover this big of a spread.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS since 1989.

The Eagles are non-divisional home favorites here, but I don’t know if that applies for a few reasons. One, these teams are as familiar with each other as non-divisional teams can be as many of the current Eagles were on the roster last season when Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid was the Head Coach in Philadelphia. Two, I don’t know that the Chiefs are necessarily less experienced than the Eagles. Three, I don’t know if this line is where it should be with the Eagles favored by 3.5.

The Eagles were exposed last week after a big week 1 with a home loss to the Chargers. Their offense was still good, though not quite as good as the week before when they were facing a terrible Washington defense and when their offense was still a complete mystery. However, their defense was atrocious. They’ve really been atrocious all year, allowing 58 first downs and forcing just 4 punts on the season, but they were able to get by week 1 because they forced 3 turnovers, but they can’t rely on having to get a takeaway to stop a drive.

Their offensive style doesn’t help their defense because, if their offensive drive isn’t successful, it doesn’t give the defense any time to rest. Fortunately, they’ve had 48 first downs to 9 punts offensively, but if the Chiefs (32 first downs allowed, 15 punts forced) can force more punts than the Redskins or Chargers, it’s going to be even worse news for their defense, which seems to allow a score every time they’re on the field. The Chiefs aren’t an incredible offense team (36 first downs, 16 punts) by any measure, but they’re not worse than Washington or San Diego and they haven’t turned it over all season.

The real wild card for this game is how the Eagles’ offensive style will be affected by the short week. Will it be harder to execute all of their no huddle stuff with less time to prepare? Will it be even tougher to stop because the defense had less time to watch time? Will it be even more effective because the defense has had less time to recover from last week? Will the offense be equally tired? Thursday Night Games are usually ugly low scoring games, which I think favors the Chiefs, their strong defense, and their conservative/turnover-avoidant offense, but I’m not confident enough to put much on that. I’d probably avoid it all together if the line were an even field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5

Confidence: Low

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