2013 Week 5 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Rams, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The Jaguars are +12 here in St. Louis. No one is THAT bad right? Well, so far, the Jaguars have been THAT bad. They have been beyond horrendous offensively, converting just 58% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. That means on 42% of their 1st and 10s, they didn’t move the chains. Defensively, they aren’t good either, but they aren’t horrendous, surrendering a subsequent set of first downs 78% of the time.

However, I don’t expect the Jaguars to be THAT bad all season. They’re having a horrendous stretch right now, but I don’t think they’ll be all-time bad for the entirety of the season. Some of it will be randomness and the fact that no one is this bad forever. Some of it will be the return of Justin Blackmon, who returns this week from a 4 game suspension and could have a Josh Gordon-esque impact on this offense. They won’t be a good offense by any stretch of the imagination, but that 58% number won’t be THAT terrible all season.

Given that, I don’t think they really deserve to be 12 point underdogs here. The Rams aren’t very good at all either. They are moving the chains on 69% of opportunities, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. In terms of differential, they are 29th in the NFL. Their retooled offensive line isn’t playing up to expectations. Rodger Saffold is out, while veteran Scott Wells has been awful at center. Chris Williams continues to prove he’s not a starting caliber player, while even Jake Long has not been the franchise left tackle they thought they were getting.

Rookie Tavon Austin, who was supposed to invigorate Bradford’s receiving corps, has looked like, well a rookie, while Jared Cook has been pretty hit or miss. Defensively, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, who have been signed to long extensions recently, aren’t living up to their salaries. The same is true of Cortland Finnegan, who was signed to a 50 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s suddenly morphed into the worst cornerback in the NFL, allowing 16 of 19 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns before getting “hurt” against the 49ers.

They don’t deserve to be 12 point favorites over anyone. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Rams could easily go 6-10 or worse after a 1-3 start, given how they’ve been playing. I’m a little wary of using this to pick the Jaguars since I did it against the Raiders and it backfired, but this line is double what that line was. There’s a lot of room to work with and I don’t think the Jaguars will be quite as bad this week as they’ve been thus far this season, as I mentioned earlier. Teams always cover at least 3 or 4 times per season, no matter how bad they are. This could easily be one of those times for the Jaguars.

Other trends favor the Jaguars as well. Since 2002, teams are 36-18 ATS off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in this situation. Both teams are actually in that situation this week, but I don’t think the Rams are being undervalued and I highly doubt they’ll be overlooked given how bad the Jaguars are. Going off of that, teams are just 2-11 ATS since 1989 as 10+ point favorites off of 3+ straight losses. It’s a limited sample size, but the fact that this situation happens so rarely is important in of itself. This is an overly inflated spread. I don’t want to put too much confidence in Jacksonville, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +12

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

The Saints and Dolphins both went into Monday Night’s game at 3-0, after going 7-9 last season, but at the end of the day, it was the Saints who proved they were for real, while the Dolphins looked like a team that was never very good to begin with. The Saints obviously dominated in a 21 point win and it’s not like the Dolphins were some scrubs. They’re a decent football team. Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field.

They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, converting on 81%. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 3rd in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history.

Rob Ryan has really turned things around as the Saints have held all 4 of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, something they did just 3 times all last season. Junior Galette and Cameron Jordan have broken out as among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions in their new 3-4 defense, with Jordan even playing like an All-Pro. As a result, they are +15% in differential in terms of how often they are converting for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games. The Saints also should be able to continue their momentum from their huge Monday Night Football win into this week. Since 2002, teams are 29-13 ATS off Monday Night Football wins of 21 points or more.

The Bears, meanwhile, are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009.

I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to convert for a subsequent set of first downs 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, converting about 73% of the time offensively. This would be a Pick of the Week if I trusted the Saints more on the road, but I feel like this line should be at least -3 favor of New Orleans. It’s really an elite team versus a more pedestrian/slightly above average team and the Saints 20-23 ATS road record since 2008 isn’t terrible. This could be a statement road win for the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans PK

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Carolina was one of my biggest, if not my biggest sleeper coming into the season. I had them winning 12 games and the NFC South. They finished last season playing very good defense, allowing 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season after they moved Luke Kuechly to the middle linebacker, despite facing top-16 offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They looked poised to continue that into 2013, after adding Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short in the 1st and 2nd round pick of the draft. Offensively, they finished last season scoring 26.0 points per game after Cam Newton put a slow start to his sophomore year behind him. That wasn’t anything ridiculous for them because they scored 25.4 points per game in 2011. In Newton’s 3rd year in the league, he looked poised to have the best year of his career.

In the first 2 games of the season, that looked pretty wrong. The defense was excellent, possibly even better than expected as Star Lotulelei looked like a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. However, their offense was bogged down by poor game plans put together by Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach after Rob Chudzinski left for Cleveland. They also struggled to close games later, something that had plagued them since 2011, Head Coach Ron Rivera’s 1st season with the team. That pushed them to 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less under Rivera. That’s something that usually evens out in the long run, but it was fair to wonder if the Panthers would ever be able to close out games well under Ron Rivera.

Week 3, however, they destroyed the Giants 38-0 and looked like the team I expected them to be before the season. Yes, the Giants aren’t very good, but beating a team by 38 points, no matter who they are, is an incredibly impressive accomplishment. In that game, their offensive game plan was much better, utilizing more zone runs and shots downfield, which is how you best utilize Cam Newton.

Ron Rivera actually was less conservative with his decision making, as well. They didn’t have to close things out and that could still be a weakness, but I feel a lot better around them going forward and their ability to blow out opponents. They are moving the ball very well, converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 79% of the time, while allowing opponents to do so just 72% of the time, a +7% differential they is actually 7th in the NFL.

They also benefitted from having a bye last week. Road favorites, like the Panthers are here, tend to dominate off of a bye. Teams are 44-17 ATS in this situation since 2002. It makes sene. Good teams tend to be very focused off of a bye and this allows them to play up to their talent level. The bye should be very good for the Panthers for that reason. They certainly have the talent to be favored here in Arizona and could easily blow them out. I’m very confident they cover a very short line here.

Carolina Panthers 27 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns have somehow vaulted to the top of the AFC North two weeks after losing Brandon Weeden to injury and trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. While it’s not a surprise that they wouldn’t miss Brandon Weeden that much, I don’t think anyone was expecting Brian Hoyer to play well enough to mask the loss of Trent Richardson. After 33 first downs to 13 punts in the first 2 games of the season, the Browns have 41 first downs to 10 punts in the past 2 games, while turning the ball over 5 times (included failed 4th downs) to 7 times in the first 2 games. Hoyer’s performance against the Vikings could have been seen as a fluke, but after they knocked off the Bengals last week, it’s time to believe in Brian Hoyer a little bit. He’s not great, but he’s the best quarterback the Browns have had in 5 years.

This has allowed their defense to shine. They don’t have a perfect defense by any means and they have holes in their secondary, but they have one of the better front 7s in the NFL with guys like Desmond Bryant, Phil Taylor, John Hughes, Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Paul Kruger. Meanwhile, Joe Haden has done an excellent job in the secondary, allowing 15 completions on 32 attempts for 130 yards while shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, including guys like Mike Wallace and AJ Green. They have allowed opponents to convert 70% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs.

The Bills, meanwhile, are also playing excellent defense, allowing opponents to convert 69% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. Mike Pettine has done an excellent job in his first year as defensive coordinator and their front 7 is playing very well, with guys like Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and early Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Kiko Alonso. Their secondary has problems, mostly thanks to injuries, but they have, at least, a comparable defense to Cleveland.

This should be a defensive matchup, especially on a short week. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks and stronger defenses than offenses. The under usually covers on Thursday Night (76-59 since 1989). I’m not going to put anything on that because I hate betting over/under, especially after last week, a defensive matchup that somehow went over the total because of return touchdowns and garbage time scores. However, this should be a low scoring game.

The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup. It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week, so home dogs don’t cover nearly as often as home favorites, but these two teams are very evenly matched so that’s not a factor.

The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other, especially in their first season with new coaching staffs. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Cleveland’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. They still have an advantage and non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night. I’d be much more confident with Cleveland at -3 than at -4, but the Browns should still be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Cleveland -4

Confidence: Medium

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