2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

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Last week: 10 (-1)

Record: 3-1

The Bears are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009. I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to move the chains 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, moving the chains about 73% of the time offensively.

Week 4 Studs

RE Julius Peppers

Week 4 Duds

QB Jay Cutler

RT Jordan Mills

C Roberto Garza

RE Shea McClellin

LOLB Lance  Briggs

SS Major Wright

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

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Last week: 7 (-5)

Record: 2-2

I thought the Bengals had finally broken through and gotten their signature win, beating the Packers despite losing the turnover battle, after going 1-11 against playoff teams in 2011 and 2012. However, last week they lose convincingly to the Browns. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games). We should know more about this team after a home game against the Patriots.

Week 4 Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth

RG Kevin Zeitler

DT Geno Atkins

Week 4 Duds

QB Andy Dalton

RE Michael Johnson

CB Adam Jones

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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

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Last week: 13

Record: 2-2

The Ravens’ loss in Buffalo isn’t shocking. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 points per game. The addition of Eugene Monroe at left tackle really helps this team going forward and they still have a very good chance of winning the division. Even at 2-2, they are currently tied for the division lead.

Week 4 Studs

RT Mitchell Schwartz

SS James Ihedigbo

Week 4 Duds

QB Joe Flacco

C Gino Gradkowski

LOLB Courtney Upshaw

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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

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Last week: 18 (+4)

Record: 3-1

The Colts had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. However, they’ve blown out the 49ers and the Jaguars over the past 2 weeks. You could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact on the field, though maybe it was a morale boost. It’s possible that their win in San Francisco was a fluke and that blowing out the Jaguars isn’t impressive, but, at the very least, they seem much improved offensively over last season. Andrew Luck, helped by an offensive system that fits his skill set better and an improved offensive line, is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, 2nd best in the NFL. They could continue being an offensive powerhouse going forward, even if they don’t continue playing this kind of defense (70% opponent’s rate of moving the chains).

Week 4 Studs

QB Andrew Luck

WR Reggie Wayne

LT Anthony Castonzo

LE Cory Redding

CB Vontae Davis

CB Darius Butler

MLB Kavell Conner

Week 4 Duds

RG Mike McGlynn

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

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Last week: 15

Record: 2-2

The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team. That being said, any talk of replacing Schaub is ridiculous. Who are you realistically going to get for 2014 that’s better than him? I could see them using a day 2 pick on a quarterback to groom behind him however, as he goes into his age 33 season in 2014 and owed 29 million from 2015-2016.

Week 5 Studs

LG Wade Smith

LE JJ Watt

MLB Brian Cushing

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

Week 5 Duds

RT Derek Newton

RG Brandon Brooks

TE Garrett Graham

DT Earl Mitchell

MLB Daryl Sharpton

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

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Last week: 16

Record: 3-1

The Titans would be higher on this list if Jake Locker weren’t out for 4-6 weeks with a hip problem. That hurts their playoff chances. Fortunately, they have a strong supporting cast, particularly on defense, where the NFL’s worst unit in 2012, in terms of points per game allowed, is allowing just 17.3 points per game and a 69% rate of moving the chains. Hypothetically, if backup Ryan Fitzpatrick could avoid turnovers, they would still be in position to make the playoffs when Locker returns, but Fitzpatrick couldn’t be trusted to do that in Buffalo, forcing things downfield when he doesn’t have the arm strength necessary to complete those passes.

Week 4 Studs

LT Michael Roos

DT Karl Klug

CB Alterraun Verner

Week 4 Duds

RB Chris Johnson

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

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Last week: 17

Record: 3-1

I said last week that starting 3-0 didn’t necessarily mean you were a good team. 22 of 32 teams won 3+ games in a row at some point last season, including the Dolphins, who finished 7-9. The Dolphins certainly didn’t look for real in a blowout loss to the Saints in New Orleans. Their offensive line is a huge problem, particularly right tackle Tyson Clabo, who is either showing his age and/or does not fit the zone blocking scheme. Defensively, they haven’t even been as good as they were supposed to, allowing opponents to move the chains at a very high 79% rate. Ryan Tannehill has definitely taken a big leap forward in his 2nd year in the league and that’s why the Dolphins can compete for a playoff spot in the AFC, but any talk of them being a serious competitor to a vulnerable Patriots team in the AFC East was premature.

Week 4 Studs

C Mike Pouncey

Week 4 Duds

WR Mike Wallace

RT Tyson Clabo

LOLB Philip Wheeler

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 14 (-4)

Record: 1-3

The Falcons may have made it a touchdown game with the Patriots, but it wasn’t nearly as close as that would have suggested. After the Patriots scored their last touchdown, giving them a 30-13 lead, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1%, with the ball on their own 20, down 17, with 6:18 left to go. It took an onside kick recover to even make it competitive. This is a team that ordinarily dominates at home and off of a loss, but they’re as bad as they’ve been since before the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era this season. Injuries have hurt (Sean Weatherspoon, Sam Baker, Asante Samuel, Kroy Biermann), but odds are they probably would not have been a playoff team either way.

Week 4 Studs

QB Matt Ryan

LG Justin Blalock

TE Tony Gonzalez

Week 4 Duds

WR Roddy White

DT Peria Jerry

DT Jonathan Babineaux

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

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Last week: 26 (+7)

Record: 2-2

The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing. Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him (they didn’t have a single offensive player on my top-200 players list in August). The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. Still, they are no pushover because of their ability to put points on the board and sustain drives.

Week 4 Studs

QB Philip Rivers

RB Ryan Mathews

LG Johnnie Troutman

RT DJ Fluker

C Nick Hardwick

Week 4 Duds

MLB Donald Butler

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

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Last week: 21 (+1)

Record: 2-2

Daryl Washington returns this week from suspension and it’s pretty ridiculous that he gets to play while Von Miller continues to be suspended. Not only did Washington fail a drug test, he is also accused of assaulting his girlfriend and breaking her collarbone. He hasn’t been proven guilty yet (his trial is October 9th), but if convicted, he deserves a lengthy suspension. The length of suspension for drugs is disproportionally short to the length of suspensions for violence. The NFL should not tolerate this kind of thing, especially against women.

Week 4 Studs

RE Matt Shaughnessy

LE Frostee Rucker

CB Patrick Peterson

Week 4 Duds

RB Rashard Mendenhall

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