2013 Week 6 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)

This is another one I could really go both ways on. On one hand, the Eagles don’t deserve to be favorites here. Much has been made about all the problems the Buccaneers have, from Josh Freeman, to Greg Schiano, to MRSA, but they still have a lot of talent. Mike Glennon isn’t a very good quarterback under center, but they are still holding opponents to a 72% rate of moving the chains defensively, thanks to guys like Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis. They had 7 of my top-200 players before the season and 6 of them will play this week (Carl Nicks is out). The Eagles’ defense isn’t very good at all, so, in his 2nd career start after a week off, he could be significantly better than he was in the opener against a much tougher Arizona defense.

On the other hand, Nick Foles looked really good in relief of Michael Vick against the Giants. Yes, it was just the Giants’ defense, but he completed 16 of 25 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Vick completed 6 of 14 for 105 yards. The team was noticeably better when he was on the field. I’ve held all season that Chip Kelly’s offense is making a washed up Vick look significantly better than he is (ProFootballFocus agrees, as they’ve graded him below average as a passer this season). I think his offense can do the same with Nick Foles. The offense will obviously look different with him out there, but he should continue to get open receivers and he should continue to be supported by LeSean McCoy on the ground.

At the end of the day, I’m going with Tampa Bay, but I really wish we were getting a whole field goal or more with them at home. I don’t think Philadelphia has any business being favored on the road against a team with a solid supporting cast, because of how terrible their defense is. One trend does hurt them, as non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home dogs, though the Eagles could end up being favored over the Cowboys at home next week depending on the results of this week. However, I’d need at least a field goal to be confident at all.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

I don’t know how this game can have a line. Calvin Johnson is a game time decision and yet this line has been at about -2.5 or -3 in favor of Detroit all week. The Lions’ offense looked miserable without Johnson last week, totaling just 286 yards and not scoring a touchdown until there were 2 minutes left in the game in a 22-9 loss to a Green Bay team with a vulnerable defense. It’s not just that Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. It’s the Lions’ lack of wide receiver depth. With the exception of Ryan Broyles, who is still working his way back from injury, the Lions don’t have a single receiver who would be higher than 5th on the average depth chart. Johnson is as valuable as any non-quarterback can be to his team for that reason.

Even if we knew Johnson’s status, this isn’t a very easy game to predict, but Johnson’s health just makes things more complicated. The case for Cleveland is that, even if Johnson plays, he’ll have to face Joe Haden. Haden wouldn’t be able to cover Johnson if Johnson were healthy, but he’s not so even if he plays, he’ll have a shot. Haden has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this season (he’s always been good, but this has been his best year). Shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, he’s allowed 18 catches for 169 yards on 38 attempts this season.

He was a big part of the reason why the Browns, in a similar situation as home dogs, beat the Bengals, who similarly have one dominant receiver and little else. Offensively, Brian Hoyer is out for the season for the Browns, but Brandon Weeden looked good in relief of him last week. Remember, he didn’t have Josh Gordon at his disposal when he started the year as the starter. Gordon has been dominant in his 3 games since returning from suspension, catching 18 passes for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. With him and Jordan Cameron, Weeden has weapons to work with.

The case for Detroit, however, is that Detroit is a legitimate playoff team who should be able to bounce back off of a road loss in a tough environment and beat an inferior opponent. Teams tend to cover at a higher rate in their 2nd road game than their first because it gives them an opportunity to get used to being away from home. It’s also very possible that, even at less than 100%, Haden can’t cover Johnson. He’s that good. And as for Weeden, well maybe he’s still just Brandon Weeden and his strong half in relief of Hoyer last week was a fluke against a banged up Buffalo defense. One trend also supports the Lions, as home dogs are 52-74 ATS before being double digit dogs on the road. The Browns travel to Green Bay next week and might not be as focused as they need to be in order to pull an upset as a result. I’m definitely not confident either way, but I like the Lions right now.

Detroit Lions 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)

Remember when everyone freaked out just because the 49ers lost 2 of 3 games. Good times. Losing 2 of 3 games isn’t a big deal. It’s just more noticeable at the start of the season. They’ve won the last two games by a combined score of 69-14. However, everything is still not as perfect as it seemed coming into the season. The 49ers’ 34-3 win masked the fact that Colin Kaepernick completed just 6 passes all game. They won’t be able to win the turnover battle by 4 every time going forward.

Kaepernick is completing just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season and the 49ers are moving the chains on just 69% of opportunities as a result. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s combined for less than that in his other 4 games, catching 13 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.

The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 154 yards and no scores on 27 carries in 5 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first. Kaepernick gets a tough matchup this week against the Cardinals, whose solid defense got even tougher last week when Daryl Washington returned from suspension.

The defense is, of course, very tough for the 49ers as well and things will only get better this week with Patrick Willis returning from injury. The 49ers have done a terrific job holding opponents to 14 points in 2 weeks without arguably their two best defenders, Willis and Aldon Smith. That speaks to their depth. While Smith is still out indefinitely, they should continue frustrating opponent’s defensively going forward.

Given that, I want to take the points and expect a defensive battle, but I’m going with the 49ers for a 3rd straight blowout victory. The Cardinals could be distracted with a Thursday Night Game against the Seahawks and not be as focused as they have to be to hang with a tough 49er team. The 49ers, meanwhile, have absolutely no distractions here with a trip to Tennessee and Jacksonville on deck. The 49ers should rip through these next 3 games going into their bye, starting this week. Also, teams are 25-37 ATS since 1989 as double digit dogs off of a win as home dogs. I’m not confident though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco 49ers -11

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

Before the season, the Raiders were expected to be an all-time bad team. That hasn’t happened, as they are 2-3 right now and credit Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen for building a passable team despite over 50 million in dead money on their cap. However, I think they’re a little overrated right now. They’re not a good football team. I circled 4 games I thought the Raiders could win before the season and so far they’ve both two of them (home games against the Titans and Eagles were the other two). The fact that they are 2-3 right now does not shock me. Terrelle Pryor has legitimately impressed me, but he gets his biggest defensive test of the season, by far, this week.

The Chiefs have allowed opponents to score 11.6 points per game this season and opponents are moving the chains at a 61% rate. For comparison, the Jaguars are averaging 10.2 points per game and moving the chains at a 59% rate. Basically, the Chiefs have made their average opponent look like the Jaguars offensively (and they embarrassed the Jaguars week 1, for what it’s worth). They haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both the Eagles and Cowboys are moving the chains at high rates this year and couldn’t do anything against the Chiefs. The Raiders aren’t exactly adding to their strength of schedule here and they have a very good chance to stifle them offensively.

That’s going to allow the Chiefs to execute their game plan offensively and they should have plenty of success avoiding turnovers and moving the chains against a Raiders defense that hasn’t been bad, but lacks much talent. I feel like this line is at least a couple points too low. It should be on the other side of 10, like it was before the Raiders’ “surprising” win over the Chargers. It’s not a big play, but the Chiefs should win this by multiple scores at home, on a day in which their fans will be attempting to bring Seattle’s crowd noise record. Kansas City is also my survivor pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 9 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Kansas City -8

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

I could go either way on this game. On one hand, the Cowboys generally fall flat as big home favorites, at least lately. Using the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009 as a start point, they are 9-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more, excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what. The Cowboys gave the Broncos a real run for their money last week, but that was in a completely different dynamic as underdogs and now they could be a little flat for an inferior opponent after coming up short. The Redskins, on the other hand, could be a much improved team coming out of the bye. Mike Shanahan generally covers coming out of the bye, going 10-5 ATS, and the extra rest could have been exactly what Robert Griffin needed. He’s four games in now so he’s essentially had the pre-season he missed.

On the other hand, I legitimately think the Cowboys are a good football team and that this line at -5 might not be accurate (check out other NFL Lines). I don’t think their near win against the Broncos was a fluke. Their defense clearly still has a bunch of flaws. Injuries to Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff have thinned their defensive line significantly, while the defensive scheme change seems to have hurt promising youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter. However, they have one of the better offenses in football, moving the chains on 80% of opportunities (as opposed to 79% for opponents).

Tony Romo has always had a ton of weapons to throw to and he’s supposed to get Miles Austin back this week. However, he’s as well protected as he’s been in years as the Cowboys finally seem to have retooled what was once the oldest offensive line in football. Tyron Smith is emerging as a talented blindside protector in his 3rd year in the league. Doug Free has bounced back in a big way and has been one of the best right tackles in the game this season. On the interior, the additions of Brian Waters and Travis Frederick have helped immensely. Add in a healthy DeMarco Murray running well and this is a very strong offensive unit.

Unless the Redskins are significantly improved coming out of the bye, this line is too low. I’m still skeptical that Griffin will resemble his 2012 self at all this season. For one, the 1.0% interception rate he had in 2012 is probably something he’ll never match again, even if he goes on to have a Hall of Fame career. Two, he’s not going to be as effective running the football due to the combination of a terrible defense always making him play catch up and the fact that teams have had a year to study the read option. Three, even Tom Brady took a year to really get his legs under him after an ACL tear and he’s not nearly as reliant on his legs as Griffin. There’s enough for me to be scared off of being confident in the Cowboys, but they should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3)

It’s weird to be saying this because I held that the Texans were overrated coming into the season, but I actually think the Texans are underrated right now. They’ve faced a very tough schedule thus far, playing Baltimore, Tennessee, San Diego, and San Francisco, and Seattle. San Diego is probably the worst of the bunch and even they’re decent. They’ve also been killed off of returns. The Texans are -46 in points differential right now, but they are -28 in points off of returns as they’ve allowed 4 defensive touchdowns.

That won’t continue. Even if the Texans continue to turn the ball over at a rate of 2.2 per game, they are unlikely to allow 36% of them to be returned for a touchdown. And they might not even continue to turn the ball over at this rate. They are unlikely to continue recovering just 30.0% of fumbles that hit the ground and Matt Schaub, while he’s definitely having a down year, probably won’t continue throwing an interception at a rate nearly double his career rate. For his career, he throws an interception on 2.6% of attempts. This season, he’s at 4.2%, partly because of their tough schedule. Their -8 turnover margin is one of the worst in the NFL and a big part of the reason they’ve struggled. The Texans are actually moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a 5% differential that is 6th best in the NFL, despite their tough schedule.

This is a perfect chance for them to get back on track here, with the Rams coming to town. The Rams have already failed to cover similar lines against similar caliber opponents, in Atlanta and Dallas. They beat the Cardinals at home by 3 week 1, but they then trailed Atlanta 21-0 early before injuries and garbage time, they lost 31-7 to the Cowboys, and they lost 35-11 to the 49ers.

They beat Jacksonville by 14 last week, but that’s not even that impressive. They barely even covered the spread, beating the 12 point spread by 2, their first cover of the season. The Texans also haven’t covered this season, but that’s because I think they’ve been overrated. That’s no longer the case. I like their chances of re-establishing themselves here and blowing out the Rams. I wish the line was -7 or lower, but I still think the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 24 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Houston -8

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1)

You could be pretty rich if you only bet on Seattle at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 36-15 ATS at home, including 10-3 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or more and 6-1 ATS as home favorites of ten points or more. Things have only been better for them at home over the past 2 years as they’ve emerged as one of the top football teams in the NFL. They’ve won all 10 of their home games over the past 2 years and in pretty dominant fashion, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.2 points and covering every time except for once. They haven’t been playing cupcakes either. They played 4 playoff teams at home last year, winning by an average of 10.5 points per game, and then they blew out the 49ers at home week 2, a 29-3 victory.

However, I’m not incredibly confident in the Seahawks ability to cover the 14 here at home this week for two reasons. The first is injuries. Their offensive line has been hammered by injuries over the past few weeks, as both Max Unger and Russell Okung have been out. Those are their only two good offensive linemen and it’s showed as the Seahawks have been destroyed up front lately. It wasn’t noticeable against Jacksonville because they suck, but it’s a big part of the reason why they almost lost in Houston and why they lost in Indianapolis. Unger is expected back this week, but Okung is still the more important offensive lineman. On top of that, stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is expected not to play.

The other reason is that the Titans are actually a legitimately solid team, even without Jake Locker. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. It was this strong supporting cast, including a tough defense that is allowing opponents to move the chains on just 69% of opportunities. They’ve benefitted from recovering a league best 83.3% of fumbles and a +8 turnover margin as a result, but they are still a solid team.

They lost without Locker at home to the Chiefs, but that game could have gone either way. The Titans lost the game because they lost the turnover battle, but they could have easily won if they didn’t. First downs (20 to 19 Kansas City), yards (353 to 339 Kansas City), and punts (both at 6) were basically even and two of the Titans’ turnovers (a punt block and an interception off a receiver’s hands) were very fluky. The Seahawks should still beat them by more than two touchdowns at home, but I wish this line was lower.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -14

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)

I was dead wrong about the Colts this season. In my defense, the logic was sound. The Colts were not an 11 win team last year. 7 of their 11 wins came by a touchdown or less against a team that finished with a record of 7-9 or worse. They had a terrible offensive line and defense and finished the season 25th in DVOA, which I think is a much more accurate measure of level of play than record. They started the season basically playing the way they did last year, almost losing to the Raiders at home and then losing at home to a solid Miami team.

However, in the three weeks since, they’ve blown out the 49ers in San Francisco, the Jaguars in Jacksonville, and beaten the Seahawks at home. Andrew Luck has had a fantastic year in his 2nd year in the league, as a result of his own development, an improved offensive line, and a new offensive system for which he’s a better fit. His completion percentage is up 8.1%, his yards per attempt up 3/10 of a yard, and his touchdown to interception rate has improved from 23/18 to 7/2. Defensively, off-season additions have made an impact, as has the presence of Head Coach and defensive mind Chuck Pagano, who is fortunately in remission after missing most of last season with cancer. They have moved the chains 83% of the time offensively, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is tied for 2nd best in the NFL with Denver, and only behind New Orleans.

All that being said, I actually love San Diego in this spot this week. They’re no slouch because of their offensively dominance this season. Philip Rivers been very impressive, completing 73.7% of his passes for an average of 8.5 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, as the offense moves the chains on a very impressive 81% of opportunities. He’s doing that without much of a supporting cast. Mike McCoy needs to be given a ton of credit. The defense is pathetic, allowing opponents to move the chains on 82% of opportunities, and they were even worse against the Raiders with Dwight Freeney now out for the season. They made Terrelle Pryor look like John Elway. However, the Chargers can definitely pull the upset in the right situation and I think this is the right situation.

The Colts are coming over from the Eastern Time Zone to the Western Time Zone to play this game at night. The game will start around 8:30 in the internal clocks of the Colts and go to about midnight. Meanwhile, it will run from about 5:30 to about 9 in the internal clocks of the Chargers. That gives them a significant difference. Since 1989, Western Time Zone teams are 47-20 ATS at home against a team from the Eastern Time Zone at night.

It doesn’t stop there, however. This could be a very bad spot for the Colts, as road favorites off of an upset home win against the Seahawks before a huge game against the Broncos in Indianapolis next week. Not only is Denver probably the best team in the NFL, but it’ll be Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. They could easily be caught looking forward to that against the Chargers here. The Chargers, meanwhile, go to Jacksonville next week, when they will be road favorites. Last week, they lost as road favorites in Oakland, so they’ll be completely focused for a superior opponent here.

Since 1989, teams are 20-36 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional home dogs are 71-38 ATS before being divisional road favorites. There are not many situations where a team is home dog in between being road favorites, when their opponent is road favorites in between being home dogs, at least not enough to make any sort of point off of. However, I think we can safely say it benefits the Chargers. I really like their chances to pull the upset at home, as they did against Dallas and almost did against Houston.

San Diego Chargers 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: San Diego +2

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1)

The Patriots had their worst offensive performance since 2006 last week. It was the first time since 2006 that they scored fewer than 7 points in a game. On top of that, Brady hadn’t had a completion percentage that low since 2007. Fortunately, help should be on its way. Stevan Ridley will be back to give them another option on the ground. Danny Amendola, who played on just 62% of snaps last week in his first game back from injury, is expected to be a starter and play close to a full snap count. The biggest boost, however, is that Rob Gronkowski is expected to return.

Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. The Patriots are 31st in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 35.3% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.

Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 13 games, including playoffs. In those 13 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact.

I also expect Brady himself to play better. He didn’t play well against the Bengals. It wasn’t just on his receiving corps. However, this is the type of situation he usually dominates in, when he’s doubted and when he’s facing a tough opponent. In his career, Tom Brady is 26-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 70.3% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 27-9-1 ATS, including 10-4 ATS even as favorites. Even though the Patriots are being favored here, most people don’t expect them to win. The public is pounding the Saints as underdogs. Usually, the public loses and the odds makers win. There’s a reason for that.

The Patriots aren’t big favorites though, as favorites of just a point and a half. They pretty much need to win straight up. Tom Brady usually dominates against the spread in situations where he just needs to win straight up, going 39-15 ATS in his career in that situation, including 12-3 ATS at home. Tom Brady also usually dominates off a loss. He is 26-15 ATS off a loss, including 16-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 29-5 SU off a loss. I expect the Patriots to be at their sharpest in their biggest test this season here and win. Remember, their defense has been incredible, as opponents have moved the chains on 67% of chances this season. Even without Vince Wilfork, they played great defense against the Bengals.

This would be a higher confidence play if not for two things. One is the possibility that Brady is more at fault for their slow start than we think. The Patriots are moving the chains on 70% of chances this season. For a team that was moving the chains at about an 85% rate in 2012, that’s unheard of. Tom Brady needs to take some of the blame. He hasn’t played well this season.

Discomfort with new receivers is a factor, but he has a negative passing grade on ProFootballFocus, who usually does a good job of determining who is at fault. It’s possible he’s turning into late career Dan Marino. He definitely has diminished arm strength, but that alone wouldn’t hold him back. Peyton Manning has diminished arm strength, but that doesn’t seem to affect him. It’s something to watch going forward and something that holds me back from being too confident in the Patriots.

The other is just how good the Saints have been playing this season. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate offensively. That’s no surprise, considering how well the Saints’ offense has played since Drew Brees came to town. However, they have been very good defensively as well, as opponents have moved the chains on 68% of opportunities, which is absurd considering they set the NFL record for yards allowed last season and ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed.

Rob Ryan’s new defensive scheme has made a huge difference and allowed young players like Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette to break out. That 13% differential is best in the NFL, even ahead of Denver, whose defense is suspect. I really wish we were getting points with the Patriots. However, they should still be the right side and I’m pretty confident in that. One final note, if Gronk is surprisingly ruled out, I’ll drop this to a low confidence pick. Don’t actually put any money on the Patriots until Gronk’s status is confirmed.

Final update: Gronk is out, but I’ve decided to leave this as a medium confidence pick. The Patriots’ history with Tom Brady in this type of game is too powerful to ignore. I’m running the risk that these aren’t the same old Patriots anymore, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

New England Patriots 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0)

Anyone who puts any money on this game is a degenerate gambler and should seek help. You never want to lay 27 points with any NFL team. The highest line ever in NFL history was 23.5 points and the highest line ever covered in NFL history was 20.5 points. No team has covered as 20 point favorites since 1992 (0-8 ATS in their last 8 opportunities).

However, you don’t really want to bet on Jacksonville in this one either. Jacksonville is getting blown out. There is no doubt about it. Denver is moving the chains on 87% of opportunities, a ridiculous rate, including an absurd 100 first downs to 3 punts over their last 3 games. Jacksonville’s defense is equally as bad as Dallas, Oakland, and Philadelphia, who the Broncos have been able to score against at will, as the Jaguars are allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. Denver is probably going to score almost every time out again.

Denver’s defense isn’t great, as they’ve allowed opponents to move the chains on 75% of opportunities, but the Jaguars are moving the chains on just 59% of opportunities and have lost one of their few strong points, their two offensive tackles, in the last two weeks. Even with a slightly superior Chad Henne taking over for a once again injured Blaine Gabbert, It wouldn’t be me at shock if the Jaguars didn’t score a touchdown until garbage time (which could start in the 2nd quarter). This line is justified.

I don’t expect the Broncos to go undefeated or the Jaguars to be winless just because that’s really hard to do either way, but there is no way, barring a Manning injury, that Jacksonville doesn’t lose by two touchdowns or more. They’re getting blown out. It’s futile to bet on whether or not they’re getting blown out by 21 or 35 or 28 or whatever. That’s the definition of a degenerate gambler. The Broncos could easily pull Manning in the 3rd quarter and throw Brock Osweiler out there. The Jaguars could easily mount a garbage time drive that cut the margin of victory from 31 to 24. Don’t bet actually money on this game. Out of principle, I’m taking the Jaguars (and I have to mention that the Jaguars are road dogs off of a road loss, a 65% covering situation historically), but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 42 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +27

Confidence: None

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