2013 Week 6 NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3)

In 2011 and 2012, the Bengals were 18-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-11 against playoff teams. This year, they’ve beaten the Packers and Patriots, who are probably playoff teams, but lost to the Browns. It’s very possible that they are just a better team this year, but they lost to the Browns because it was a “sandwich” game between the Packers game and Patriots game. However, this game could be a similar situation, in Buffalo as favorites of more than a touchdown plus, after last week’s big win. Of course, I’m not going to pretend to have a read on the Bengals, who I am 0-4-1 ATS when picking their games (46-25-1 ATS picking everyone else’s).

I also really hate to back the Bills this week, even as touchdown underdogs at home, given their quarterback situation. EJ Manuel is out for at least 6 weeks, so Thaddeus Lewis, signed off the practice squad, will start, after undrafted rookie backup Jeff Tuel went 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six in relief of Manuel last week. I don’t trust a practice squad quarterback who couldn’t even beat out Jeff Tuel for the backup job. Lewis has one career start under his belt, going 22 of 32 for 204 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in a 24-10 loss to the Steelers week 17 last year, as a member of the Browns, the Steelers’ only win in their last 8 games. Who’s to say this couldn’t be a close game late and Lewis throws a pick six for a front door cover?

If I had to pick a side though, it would be Buffalo. I feel this line shift (from Cincinnati -3.5 to Buffalo -7.5) is sufficient enough to adjust for Manuel’s absence. On top of that, the Bills are actually getting healthier on defense as Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore are expected to make their season debut in the secondary for the Bills. They return to a defense that has done a great job of stopping teams without much talent in their secondary. Opponents have moved the chains on just 70% of opportunities this season. The Bills’ defense could keep this a close defensive battle and cover the 7.5. Finally, home dogs of 7.5+ or more are 16-3 ATS since 2011. I’m not confident at all in the Bills though.

Cincinnati Bengals 13 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 25-3 at home since 2010. They’re outscore opponents by about a point per game on the road in that time period and by about 11 points per game at home. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of three times in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight, and winning against the Texans earlier this season. Those two wins came by a total of 40 points. Given that, I don’t think the Packers deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

Maybe they did a week ago, but losing Clay Matthews really hurts, as he’ll miss at least a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken thumb. Losing Matthews doesn’t just hurt because he’s one of the top defensive players in the NFL, but because of their suspect depth behind him. Nate Palmer and Andy Mulumba, 6th round and undrafted rookies respectively, are their top reserves at the position. That’s as big of a downgrade as you can possibly get and it comes it a premium position.

Given that, I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Packers are moving the chains on 80% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 75% of chances. The Ravens, meanwhile, are moving the chains on 69% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 65% of chances. We’re getting at least 5 or 6 points of line value here even before you take Baltimore’s home field advantage into account.

The Ravens are also in a very good spot in terms of trends. Since 1989, teams are 37-11 ATS as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional road favorites. The Ravens will go to Pittsburgh next week, while they will almost certainly be divisional road favorites. I really like the Ravens’ chances of protecting their home field and pulling the upset here.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

I can’t quit the Panthers. They’re clearly not going 12-4 like I thought they would at the start of the season. I can admit that because it’s clearly wrong and because I was right about pretty much everything else. But they’re not as bad as they’ve looked. They could easily be 3-1 right now. They are outscoring opponents on the season. They are moving the chains 76% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 72% of the time defensively, the 7th best differential in the NFL. They are DVOA’s #10 ranked team, which is right around where they finished last season. The defensive front 7 has been every bit as good as I thought it would be, though their lack of offensive supporting cast around Cam Newton has been very noticeable and their coaching staff is a lame duck. As bad as they’ve looked, they are not equal to the Vikings, which is what this 2.5 line suggests.

The Vikings are one of the things I’ve definitely been right about. I had them winning 5 games at the start of the season (one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer every season) and they’ve started the season 1-3. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL. Now they are 0-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, Adrian Peterson is on pace for about 400 yards less than he rushed for last season, and they’ve had injuries to guys like Kevin Williams, Chris Cook, and Christian Ponder (though the latter hasn’t really hurt). They are moving the chains 71% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 78% of the time, the 4th worst differential in the NFL.

All of the trends favor the Panthers as well. The Panthers struggled on the road last week in Arizona, but they should be more comfortable in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game and teams have gone 93-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers about 65% of the time historically, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample size. Also, underdogs are 57-26 ATS off a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Panthers host the Rams next week and lost as favorites in Arizona last week. Finally, dogs are 76-45 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. The Vikings go to the Giants next week. This would be my Pick of the Week this week if I hadn’t already lost twice with the Panthers as Pick of the Week, but I can’t help but love this play.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2)

The bye week might have been exactly what the Steelers needed. They sit at 0-4, but they get as healthy as they can be during the bye, with veterans resting up and guys like Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell getting extra time to get back to full strength. I still don’t think they’ll be as this bad all season. They’re getting destroyed in the turnover battle with a -11 turnover margin that is one of the worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to even out in the long run.

They won’t suddenly be good at winning the turnover battle going forward, but they won’t continue on this pace. At -11 through 4 games, they are averaging -2.8 per game, a -45 pace, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Even if they are destined to become the worst turnover margin team in NFL history (I don’t think they will be), they’ll be significantly better in this aspect going forward. They won’t continue recovering just 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Meanwhile, their talented defense, which has forced 22 punts to 74 takeaways, will eventually start taking the ball away, after not doing so once in their first 4 games.

The Jets aren’t good in takeaways either, at -9 on the season, but their turnover problems are more interception than fumble based. Geno Smith has 8 interceptions on 156 attempts and I don’t think it would be ridiculous if he continues throwing a bunch of interceptions. He’s a rookie quarterback who likes to force things downfield. When it works it’s great, when it doesn’t, well, not so much.

If he were to reduce his turnover rate, it would probably be at the expense of some of the things he’s doing well, like averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. They aren’t doing well recovering fumbles either, recovering 33.3%, and their talented defense (82 first downs allowed, 34 punts forced) will force more than 3 turnovers in their next 5 games, so their turnover margin should be better going forward. However, the Steelers are the ones more underrated because of their turnover margin in this matchup.

Speaking of the Jets, they’re in a bad spot after last week’s huge win. Since 2002, teams are 46-66 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-27 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. Going off of that, home favorites are 25-51 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. After a huge upset win in dramatic fashion last week, it’s understandable that they could be flat for a 0-4 team. They could also be caught looking forward to a huge divisional matchup with the Patriots next week. I really like the Steelers’ chances of pulling the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 New York Jets 9 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Giants at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

Ordinarily, Chicago would be the easy choice in this situation. The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup.

It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week and the Bears are definitely the better team here. The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Chicago’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 12-1 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

However, the Giants are playing with nothing to lose here and have more talent than most 0-5 teams do. They have been killed by takeaways, with a -13 turnover margin. At this pace, they will be -42 in turnovers this season, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Basically, the Giants can cut their turnover margin in half going forward (from -2.6 per game to -1.3 per game) and still approach being all-time bad in turnovers (that would put them at -27). Things will get better in this aspect going forward. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing interceptions at a rate nearly twice his career rate (5.9% on the season, 3.3% on his career). They also won’t continue recovering just 28.6% of fumbles.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-32 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-19 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-8 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004. They are generally a better first half of the second team than second half of the season team (53-24 first 8 games, 30-42 second 8 games since 2004). Clearly that’s not the case this season, but it’s still worth noting.

The Giants also have a strong trend in their favor. Since 2008, teams are 57-26 as underdogs off of a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Giants lost to home to the Eagles as favorites last week and will host the lowly Vikings. Still, I can’t take the Giants here. I’ve been burned plenty of times with them this season and things are going to be worse on a short week on the road against a superior team. Turnovers aren’t the only problem with this team. They can’t block, run the football, or stop anyone (opponents are moving the chains against them 79% of the time). They’ll get better as the season goes on, but I like the Bears here. It’s not a strong play though.

Chicago Bears 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -8

Confidence: Low

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