2013 Week 7 NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)

I’ll admit I was pretty surprised when I saw the Steelers were favorites by 1.5 points here against the Ravens, which essentially suggests these two teams are even. However, it just seems like the odds makers think the Steelers are significantly better than their record. They were right about it last week, as the Steelers ended up being 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets despite being 0-4 and ended up winning. I can definitely understand the arguments in favor of the Steelers being underrated by the public.

They are healthier now offensively thanks to the returns of Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell, who function as a reliable safety value and a talented running back respectively, two things the Steelers were sorely lacking to start the season. Defensively, they are still playing at an elite level, allowing 88 first downs to 29 punts and their -9 turnover margin probably isn’t indicative of what their turnover margin will be in the future. That type of thing is very random and unpredictable and largely the result of the Steelers’ 23.08% fumble recovery rate, which won’t continue going forward. Their defense is also too talented not to force takeaways. They forced their first 2 of the season against the Jets last week, after being kept out of that category during the first 4 weeks and I expect them to continue forcing turnovers at a reasonable rate.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are not the same team on the road, going 1-2 on the road this year, including a loss in Buffalo and a blowout loss in Denver. Since 2010, they are outscoring opponents by about 11 points per game at home and 1 point per game on the road. I don’t want to disagree with the odds makers on this one when their line is easily defendable, even though I was surprised by it. The public seems to be falling into their trap and taking the Ravens at a high rate. I love an opportunity to pick against a publicly backed underdog whenever it makes sense, but it’s not going to be a huge play.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

The Bills are very underrated because of a tough defense. Their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains on 72% of opportunities thanks to very strong front 7 play from guys like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and Kiko Alonso. They are doing this without their top two defensive backs Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd playing a full set of snaps yet. Fortunately, they returned to limited action last week and seem set to play a full set of snaps this week, which will make their defense even tougher. As long as they can get at least passable quarterback play from Thaddeus Lewis, who played well in his debut last week, they have a very good chance to keep this game within the 7.5 point spread.

The Bills are just 2-4 on the season, but consider that they haven’t been favored in any of their first 6 games. They’ve faced a very tough schedule and yet they’ve lost just once by more than a touchdown and that was on a late pick six by Jeff Tuel against the Browns. They’ve been underdogs in all 4 of their home games, covering all 4 times, with upset wins over Baltimore and Carolina and near wins against the Bengals and Patriots. Those are all quality opponents. They’ve yet to cover on the road in 2 opportunities, but they hung tough with the Jets and Browns.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, remain overrated. They are 3-2, but just 1 of their wins came by more than 4 points. They are actually getting outscored on the season. When you look at how they are moving the chains, as opposed to how their opponents are, it’s even worse. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 71% rate. Ryan Tannehill is improved, but an offensive line that is on pace to set the NFL record for sacks allowed makes it tough to maintain consistent drives. The Bills’ tough front 4 will give them all sorts of trouble. Defensively, their retooled stop unit isn’t doing its job, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. That -7% differential is 28th in the NFL, worse than Buffalo, who, has I mentioned, has a great defense. This 7.5 point spread is ridiculous.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot with the Patriots on deck. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 18-48 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs. I really like the underrated Bills’ chances to keep this within a touchdown against a distracted and overrated Dolphins team. The only reason the Bills are not a bigger play is because they will be double digit underdogs in New Orleans next week and teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. There’s just too much to ignore though.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)

Ordinarily, the rule of thumb is to go against the Seahawks on the road. However, lately they’ve been a covering machine no matter where they are, including a 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Going back to 2007, they are 22-32 ATS on the road, but they have also never really had a problem covering as road favorites in that time frame, going 8-7 ATS. I don’t think you can go against the Seahawks just because they’re on the road here, even on a short week.

Ordinarily, the home team has an advantage on Thursday Nights because travel time cuts into prep time on a short week. However, that’s not the case when the road team is favored because the road team’s talent level tends to cancel that out. Better teams are at just as much of an advantage on Thursday Nights as home teams are. On top of that, because this is a divisional matchup, the short week won’t matter as much. These two teams are familiar with each other and probably spent extra time on each other in the off-season because they knew they’d be facing them twice in critical games.

Given that, I really have no idea which side to go with in this one. Using rate of moving the chains, I’ve calculated this spread at about Seattle -5, which gives us a tiny bit of value with the underdog, but not enough where I’m going to be confident taking them. The Seahawks are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cardinals are also playing a little bit better of late thanks to the return of Daryl Washington defensively and the utilization of Andre Ellington offensively. Also, this could be a sloppy defensive battle between two good defenses on the short week, so getting 6.5 points does seem intriguing. I don’t like to go against the Seahawks, even on the road, but I’m siding with the Cardinals, even though I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)

What an accomplishment for the Jacksonville Jaguars! They covered the spread last week for the first time and this season, only losing to the Broncos by a mere 16 points. In all seriousness, the Jaguars could be kind of flat after putting everything they had into that game and coming up short. Now they return home to face the Chargers. In case you didn’t already know this, the Jaguars are pretty bad. Even last week’s performance, their best of the year, would have been a 22 point game if they didn’t pick off Peyton Manning and return it for six (they failed on the 2 point conversion attempt). Justin Blackmon returning has provided a boost, but not one that losing Eugene Monroe, Luke Joeckel, and Cecil Shorts doesn’t nullify.

They are moving the ball at a 61% rate offensively, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a 17% differential that is easily the worst in the NFL. They’ve lost every game this season by 10 points or more, which is relevant because this line is only 7.5 points. The Chargers are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They beat the Colts at home last week. That doesn’t mean they are better than the Colts, just like their loss to the Raiders doesn’t mean they are worse than the Raiders, but they were able to take advantage of a superior opponent in a trap game spot and win pretty convincingly. Their defense has been terrible, allowing opponents to move the chains on 80% of opportunities, but their offense has been dynamic, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities. This line is too low.

On top of that, the trends favor the Chargers. The Jaguars have another rough game next week with the 49ers coming to town so they might not be as focused as they need to be. Since 2010, teams are 31-64 ATS before a game in which they will be double digit underdogs, which the Jaguars almost surely will be next week. On top of that, teams are 33-50 ATS as home dogs before being home dogs again. Meanwhile, the Chargers have a bye week up next, so they have no distractions. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. Vastly superior teams usually take care of business going into a bye.

This would be my Pick of the Week if it wasn’t for three things. One, I’m concerned the Chargers could fall flat off of a home upset win, like they did in Oakland. Two, this is a 1 PM East Coast Time start for a West Coast team. Three, favorites of more than a touchdown on the road have not been covering over the past 3 seasons, going 3-16 ATS in that situation. However, the Colts covered as 9 point favorites in a 37-3 win in Jacksonville earlier this season, so this is still a high confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -7.5

Confidence: High

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St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)

The Panthers seem to make a habit out of blowing out bad teams and suffering gut wrenching losses to solid or better teams. There’s plenty of talent on this football team. They’re moving the chains at a 79% rate, while their opponents are doing so at a 72% rate, the 6th best differential in football. If they can ever figure out how to win close games, they’re going to be a dangerous team (2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since 2011). Record in games decided by a touchdown or less usually evens out over the long run, but at this point I’m skeptical if that will be the case in Carolina as long as Ron Rivera is the Head Coach.

Fortunately, that shouldn’t matter here as the Panthers have a very easy opponent in the Rams. Yes, the Rams are 3-3, but their first win came by a field goal and their 2nd win came against Jacksonville. On paper, their 3rd win looks more impressive, a 38-13 victory in Houston. However, that came was very fluky. The Rams won by 25 points despite losing the yardage battle by 204 and the first down battle by 12. This was as a result of winning the turnover battle by 4, including two return touchdowns.

That’s not a sustainable way to win football games. Since 1989, only 35 teams have won games despite losing the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. Also, since 1989, teams are 13-23 ATS after a game in which they lost the first down battle by 10+ and still won the game by 10+. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of fluky wins like that.

On the season, the Rams are still moving the ball at a 72% rate offensively, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They are 26th in DVOA, as opposed to 8th for Carolina. They’re the type of team Carolina has had no problem blowing out in the past. There’s a reason the odds makers made this spread 6. This is the 3rd time Cam Newton has been favored by 6 or more in his career. He covered each of the first two times, winning the two games by an average of 21.5 points per game.

The situational trends also favor the Panthers. Whereas the Rams have a huge divisional matchup with the Seahawks next week, which could serve as a distraction, the Panthers go to winless Tampa Bay next week, so they should be completely focused. Non-divisional home favorites are 47-22 since 2008 before being divisional road favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional road dogs are 49-74 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs. I’m very confident we’re getting a blow out here.

Carolina Panthers 27 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: Carolina -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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