2013 Week 8 NFL Picks

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)

Josh Freeman was awful last week. He threw 33 incompletions (only 3 of which were drops) on 20 of 53 passing for 190 yards and an interception against a team that was previously one of the worst in the NFL defensively. ProFootballFocus said his performance graded out as the worst they’ve graded since they started in 2008 and it pretty much broke their grading system. It wasn’t totally his fault though. He definitely deserves a lot of the blame because his mechanics and accuracy looked awful, but he wasn’t put in a situation to succeed by the coaching staff. He had been with the team just 14 days and clearly didn’t know the playbook and understandably so.

The Vikings are lucky that he won’t be able go this week with a concussion (or they’re smart for inventing a concussion). Christian Ponder isn’t very good because of his limited arm, but he at least knows the playbook. He played pretty well at home against the Packers last year, completing 16 of 28 for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, as his lack of arm strength can kind of be hidden inside in a dome where there is no wind. For that reason, I can’t put a lot of confidence in the Packers even though they should be the right side. They’ll be completely focused with only a game at home for the Bears and Josh McCown next week. Divisional road favorites are 36-22 ATS before being divisional away favorites since 2002.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)

This is one I could go either way on. This line has shifted in a big way over the past week, going from -5 to -11.5, but then again, that might be warranted considering the Rams lost Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL and will now turn to Kellen Clemens for the rest of the season. The Seahawks generally struggle on the road, going 26-38 ATS on the road since 2006. However, they have covered 7 of their last 9 opportunities on the road over the past calendar year or so. They’ve also been decent as road favorites, even dating back to 2006, going 9-11 ATS. They’ve also been decent in their second straight road game, going 7-8 ATS since 2006.

The Rams are also in a bad spot as home dogs before being home dogs, as teams are 65-90 ATS in that situation since 2002. I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not very confident. We could see a backdoor cover or something along those lines, especially since road favorites of 7.5 or more are 3-16 ATS since 2011. The Seahawks have a very good chance at a blowout though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis -11.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 49-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (38-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Giants have room to play with here because they are 5.5 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

However, I question how even these teams are. Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record at 3-4 as the 3 teams they’ve beaten have a combined 3-17 record. They have a terrible defense, which allows their opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, despite the easy schedule. Their offense is strong, moving the chains at a 76% rate, but not enough to keep pace with what their defense is allowing.

However, the Giants are even worse in that aspect. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate and they are only moving the chains at a 66% rate. Part of that has to do with their terrible turnover margin though. Their turnover margin is a league worst -14, but Eli Manning probably won’t throw an interception on 5.6% of his passes going forward, considering his career rate is 3.4%. The Giants also probably won’t recover just 40% of their fumbles going forward. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent, so this might not kill them going forward like it has thus far.

That being said, they didn’t look good against Minnesota, despite winning the turnover margin by 2. They looked much better against the Bears, when they lost the turnover margin by 3, but only lost the game by 6 and would have probably won in Chicago if not for a pick six. On paper, they are the more talented of these two teams, but games aren’t played on paper and there’s a chance they just are a marginal and inconsistent team all season. That being said, I’m afraid to go against them with the trend on their side given that I do believe they’re the better team on paper. They’re also a dangerous team as road underdogs in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, going 33-19 ATS as road dogs since 2004. I’m taking the Giants, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 New York Giants 23

Pick against spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)

The Falcons are 2-4, but they are better than their record. All 6 of their games have been close and all 4 of their losses were winnable games lost by a touchdown or less. They’ve also had a very tough schedule, as, with the exception of the winless Buccaneers last week, all of their opponents this season are 3-4 or better.

Their defense is horrific, one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate that is only 1/10th of a percent better than the last place Jacksonville Jaguars. However, they still have Matt Ryan, who is doing an unheralded good job leading this offense, despite injuries all over his receiving corps and struggles from his offensive line. The offense is moving the chains at a 79% rate and they get a boost this week as Steven Jackson is expected to return from injury to hopefully provide some more balance, though it’s hard to trust a 30-year-old back coming off an injury.

Still, I think they are definitely better than the Cardinals, who are moving the chains at a 71% rate and allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74% rate. The Cardinals are also in a bad spot as small home favorites before a bye. Teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 20th (Falcons) and 23rd (Cardinals) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons are in a bad spot and could be distracted by a road game in Carolina next week. Non-divisional road dogs are 47-72 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. Still, I like the Falcons’ chances of not just covering this small spread, but also winning the pulling the upset and winning game outright.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (5-2)

Tom Brady has not played well this season. A lot of people are giving him a pass because of the state of his receiving corps and that’s obviously been an issue, but you can’t give him a total pass. His arm strength is noticeably diminished, something that’s been a trend over the past few seasons, and his timing and accuracy have been off as well. He’s completed fewer than 50% of his passes 3 times this season, something he had previously done just 3 times since week 2 of the 2006 season. He has failed to throw a touchdown in 2 of his last 3 games, after throwing one in his previous 52.

ProFootballFocus grades him out as the 21st best passing quarterback this season, in between Michael Vick and Carson Palmer. Brady got Rob Gronkowski back last week, but still completed less than 50% of his passes in an eventual loss to the Jets. You can argue whether or not that pushing penalty should have been called, considering the stakes and how frequently it goes uncalled, and you can argue whether or not the Patriots would have won that game if it wasn’t called, but you can’t deny that Tom Brady really struggled.

Fortunately, Brady should have a much better game this week for 3 reasons. One is that his receiving corps will be the best it’s been all season. Again, his receiving corps hasn’t been the whole issue, but an improved receiving corps certainly won’t hurt him. Gronkowski will probably play a full set of snaps for the first time all season and his chemistry and timing with Brady should be improved in his 2nd game back. Danny Amendola also returns from a concussion. He might not play a full set of snaps and his timing and chemistry with Brady could be off, but, at the same time, he’s practiced all week and only missed a week, so he could be a real asset.

The 2nd reason is that he’s always better off of a loss. In his career, he is 27-15 ATS off a loss, including 17-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 30-5 SU off a loss. Remember when he was terrible in Cincinnati and then bounced back to beat New Orleans the next week? He’s still capable of that kind of thing, even if he’s not playing like the quarterback we’re used to him being.

The 3rd reason is that, while the Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Dolphins have a below average stop unit. The Jets are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate, while the Dolphins are allowing opponents to do so at a 76% rate. The Patriots are moving the chains at an uncharacteristically bad 72% rate, slightly below league average, but it definitely helps to go from facing a dominant stop unit on the road to a mediocre stop unit back in Foxboro.

The Dolphins also have issues offensively, as they are moving the chains at a mere 70% rate, thanks largely to the fact that they’ve allowed 26 sacks on the season. In order to remedy the issue, the Dolphins traded for Bryant McKinnie, who will immediately be put in at left tackle, moving Jonathan Martin to right tackle, to take the place of the suddenly aging Tyson Clabo, who has looked completely out of place in the Dolphins’ zone blocking scheme this season.

However, I am very skeptical about how good he can be just 6 days after being traded for. He might need another week to get settled in. I also question how good the 34-year-old can be. There’s a reason why he was a healthy scratch towards the end of his time in Baltimore. I also question the 360 pounder’s fit on a Miami offensive line that is trying to do more and more zone blocking. Plus, a lot of the offensive line’s problem has been that Tannehill is taking too many sacks, taking one on 29.9% of pressured snaps, by far the highest percentage in the NFL. The Dolphins’ offense should continue to struggle this week, especially against a New England defense that is really carrying the team with the offense struggling. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 70% rate and this week they get back Aqib Talib, who was sorely missed against the Jets.

The Dolphins -6% differential in rate of moving the chains is actually 29th in the NFL and I really believe they are not as good as their record. Given that, I don’t think this line is high enough at 6.5, as unspectacular as the Patriots have been this season. I like the Patriots chances of bouncing back at home and not just winning but covering the spread with a balanced attack. It’s not a high confidence pick though.

New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

The Broncos lost their first game of the season in Indianapolis last week. The good news is they return home here to play the Washington Redskins in a game in which they should win. The question is, by how much will they win? Fortunately for them, they have a bye coming up so they can be totally focused here as 12.5 point favorites. Since 2002, home favorites of 7 or more are 26-9 ATS before a mid-season bye. It makes sense. Teams have no distractions and can take care of business.

However, I question if the line should be this high. This is one of the biggest NFL Lines of the week. The Broncos are playing incredible football, even with the loss, moving the chains at an 84% rate offensively and allowing opponents to do so at a league average 73% average. However, the Redskins are better than their record as well, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be closer to 9 or 10.

Peyton Manning should shred up a Washington defense that has lost Brandon Meriweather again, but Robert Griffin played his best game of the season last week and has been running better since the bye. He might not be fully back until next season, but he’s capable of putting up some points against an unspectacular stop unit and he’s definitely capable of a backdoor garbage time cover.

The Redskins are also in a good spot as they have no real upcoming distractions as they host San Diego next week, a game in which they will be favored. 10+ point underdogs are 42-24 ATS since 2002 before being home favorites and non-divisional road underdogs are 96-61 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites. At the end of the day, I’m taking Denver to win their 6th game of the season by 13 or more. That trend is too powerful and the addition of Von Miller, now in his 2nd game back, could give them a real boost in terms of stopping Robert Griffin. It’s not a high confidence pick though.

Denver Broncos 41 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Denver -12.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

Both of these teams did similar things last week, winning close games as underdogs, the Bengals in Detroit and the Jets at home against the Patriots. However, the Bengals are in a bad spot this week because their close win came on the road and because they are now favorites.  Home favorites are 25-52 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. The Jets lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago in this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are actually kind of in a good spot, as teams are 25-16 ATS as dogs off of an overtime home win as underdogs since 1989. It’s not a great trend, but it shows they won’t as flat as the Bengals easily could be.

I also think this line is a little off, as the Bengals are favored by 6.5 even though these teams have essentially played the same this season. The Jets are moving the chains at a 69% rate offensively, while their opponents are doing so at a 68% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 74% rate offensively, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a rate that could get worse now that top cornerback Leon Hall is out for the season. This line is at least 3, if not 4 points too high and that doesn’t even take into account that the Bengals could be flat as big favorites off of last week’s win.

The only reason this isn’t a Pick of the Week is because the Jets might not be as focused as they’d need to be with a home game against the Saints next week, while the Bengals should be favored in Miami next week. As for the Jets, non-divisional road dogs are 80-111 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, for the Bengals, non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites since 2008. However, they might not be favorites because the line is currently expected to be -1 and if they were to be dogs, that trend would switch to 61-84 ATS since 2008. They could also be distracted before a Thursday Night Game next week. Favorites are 26-51 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008. It’s a high confidence pick on the Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets +6.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bills, Saints, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I think the Bills are an underrated team. The Bills may just be 3-4, but they’ve been pretty decent this season. They’ve had a tough schedule, with each of their opponents being 3-4 or better at this point. They’ve been underdogs in all 7 games and they have covered 5 of 7 spreads. The only game they’ve lost by more than a touchdown came in Cleveland after a pick six by backup Jeff Tuel. They beat a pair of top-15 teams on my Power Rankings in Buffalo (Baltimore, Carolina) and almost beat New England and Cincinnati.

Their defense has been strong, allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 71% rate and they’ll only get better with Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd healthy. Offensively, they are actually one of two teams to have scored 20 points or more in every game, along with Denver. Thaddeus Lewis isn’t great, but he can do enough for the Bills to win a few games going forward. That being said, I think this line is pretty reasonable at 12 points. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate offensively, giving them a -3% rate of moving the chains rate. The Saints, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a +9% differential, 3rd in the NFL.

The Bills, however, have been much better at home, covering all 4 spreads, but they covered their first spread of the season on the road last week. This is a different situation. Unlike Miami last week, the Saints are not overrated. The Dolphins, despite their record, are actually 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Saints also aren’t in a bad spot like the Dolphins were last week. While the Dolphins had a game in New England to distract them, the Saints go to New York to play the Jets next week. Since 2002, 7+ point non-divisional home favorites are 65-38 ATS before being road non-divisional favorites.

The Bills, meanwhile, are actually the ones in the bad spot. They might not be as focused as they’d need to in order to hang with the Saints, after a big upset in Miami last week and a home game against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 18-28 ATS off of a close win (3 points or more) as 7+ point road underdogs against a divisional opponent. Meanwhile, non-divisional road underdogs are 80-111 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites.

That being said, the biggest difference is just how tough of a place New Orleans is to play for a road team, particularly a young Buffalo team that doesn’t have experience going to a place like New Orleans, a non-conference foe. The Saints have not just won, but also covered their last 12 home games under Sean Payton, all 9 (including a playoff game) in 2011 and the first 3 of the season. They’re also 18-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss. Two weeks removed from that killer loss in New England, they should be completely focused to blow out the Bills at home. This is a big line, but the Saints definitely seem like the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -12

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Lions, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at Detroit Lions (4-3)

The Lions are going into a bye this week. Ordinarily, teams cover at an above average rate going into a bye, which makes sense because they don’t have any distractions on the horizon. However, the Lions are just small home favorites here and teams do not cover as small home favorites going into a bye, as teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 10th (Lions) and 11th (Cowboys) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are in a good spot. They are underdogs with no upcoming distractions, with a home game against Minnesota on deck, so they can be as focused as they need to be to pull the upset. Non-divisional road dogs are 96-61 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, including 41-21 ATS as non-divisional road dogs of 3 or less. The Bengals came into Detroit and won in this situation and last week and the Lions have been kind of screwed over by the schedulers because they have to face back-to-back opponents who are in this dynamic, but it should be a similar result. This is my Pick of the Week.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Raiders, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

The Steelers have been night and day better since the bye. The return of Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller to full health, giving the Steelers a talented runner and a safety net receiver respectively, have obviously helped, but I also think they are playing better as other guys are playing up to their abilities. They are still -2% in terms of moving the chains differential on the season, as opposed to -6% for the Raiders, so this line at Pittsburgh -2.5 is a little bit high. However, over the past two weeks they have 33 first downs to 7 punts and 1 turnover (an 80% rate), as opposed to 37 first downs, 10 punts, and 2 turnovers for their opponents (a 76% rate).

This week, they will have to avoid a trap they’ve fallen into countless times in the Mike Tomlin era. They are 6-17 ATS and just 12-11 straight up as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over in 2007. Of course, at 2-4, they might not overlook the Raiders like they otherwise would have in recent years when they were good. They covered as road favorites in New York against the Jets a few weeks ago, though they were 0-4 at the time and desperately needed a week. They were also coming directly off of a bye and road favorites cover at an incredible rate after a bye. It’s tough to know what kind of Steelers team will show this week, if they’ll play with urgency or if they’ll play down to the level of their competition after two wins. It’s tough to pick a side. I wish this line was 3 or higher though because I don’t feel comfortable taking the Raiders essentially straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick of the Week: Oakland +2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]