2013 Week 8 NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars at London: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) at London

The Jaguars suck. There’s really no other way to put it. I don’t doubt they’ll pull an upset and win a game sometime this season because, as the 2007 Dolphins and the 2011 Colts will tell you, it’s really hard for an NFL team to lose 16 consecutive games. However, they’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams my these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). That’s relevant here because the line is at 16.5 and the 49ers are clearly not a bottom-5 team.

It’s possible the 49ers could sleepwalk through the game like the Broncos did and “only” win by like 16, but there are 3 differences. One is that it took a pick six to even get it to that, as it would have been a 22 point margin or worse if not for that. The 49ers could, of course, also throw a pick six. That isn’t impossible, but it’s far more likely that the Jaguars throw a pick six and even more likely than no one throws a pick six.

The second difference is that the Broncos were distracted with Peyton Manning’s upcoming trip to Indianapolis on the schedule. The 49ers have absolutely no distractions here, with a bye up next. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. I know this game doesn’t technically fit because it’s a neutral site game in London, but the 49ers are clearly the type of team that would be focused going into a bye and dominate a significantly inferior team and that’s what the trend is all about.

The third difference is actually that this game is in London. Imagine this for a second, you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, you’re 0-7, you have to go across the ocean to play a 49er team that is 5-2 and made the Super Bowl last season. You’re losing a home game because of this game and chances are the London crowd is going to prefer the reigning NFC Champs over some shitty team from a city they’ve never heard of. There’s a good chance they just mail this one in. In fact, double digit underdogs are 0-3 ATS in London all-time. That’s not a huge sample size, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense. The 49ers could also be much more prepared for a game like this because they’re a superior veteran team.

The 49ers are playing excellent football right now. They’ve won their last 4 games by an average of 20.3 points per game and they should beat the Jaguars by at least 17. They don’t have Aldon Smith, but they haven’t really needed him. Their defense has shown their tremendous depth and talent level without him and 3rd round rookie Corey Lemonier has played well in his absence. The upgrade of Tramaine Brock over Nnamdi Asomugha in the secondary has also helped tremendously. And last week, Colin Kaepernick played arguably his best game since week 1 against a tough Tennessee defense and finally looked like the quarterback he was last season. This is a scary team and should be able to establish the run early and have their way with the significantly inferior and probably completely demoralized Jaguars. They’re also my survivor pick.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Francisco -16.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

The Panthers are much better than their record. Only 4 teams (Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle) have better point differentials than the Panthers, who are 2nd in the NFL to only Kansas City in points per game allowed. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential is 2nd best in the NFL. They are a few plays away from being 5-1. In terms of DVOA, they are 6th.

That being said, this line would seem to take into account that Carolina is better than their record. The odds makers aren’t stupid. Also, the Buccaneers too are better than their record. They are 0-6, but, with the exception of a loss in New England by 20, all of their games have been relatively close, including 3 losses by a field goal or less and 4 losses by 8 points or less, which is pretty relevant considering the spread is at 6.5. In terms of DVOA, they are ranked 24th and last week they were the highest ranked 0-5 team in DVOA history.

That being said, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One is that they always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 30-15 win over the Rams, they are now 3-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game. In 2011, the year the Buccaneers went 4-12, the Panthers beat them twice by an average of 25.5 points per game. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if the Buccaneers went 4-12 again this year.

The Buccaneers did get revenge on the Panthers last year, though, as they were the ones who won both times. Unfortunately, that puts them in a bad situation here. Teams are 110-82 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter.

Third, Tampa Bay has to go to Seattle next week and they could be really distracted to play against arguably the best team in the NFL on their home turf. Teams are 33-65 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 25-51 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, teams before being 14+ point underdogs, which the Buccaneers currently are projected to be, are 4-20 ATS in that time period (2-18 ATS as dogs) and 27-50 ATS dating back to 2002. Finally, divisional home dogs are 5-22 ATS since 1989 before being 14+ point dogs. This is a terrible spot for the Buccaneers and I expect another Carolina blowout.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

Last week, I took a 3rd string quarterback in Kansas City as significant underdogs, even though I was scared, because they were in such a good spot. That worked out for me as Case Keenum led the Texans to a near win as the Chiefs won by a final score of just 17-16. This week, the Chiefs are once again facing a 3rd string quarterback at home and the Browns, like the Texans were last week, are in a good spot. I actually like the Browns even more than I did the Texans for two reasons.

The first reason is that this line is a point higher. That might not seem like a significant difference, but it is because 7 is a key number. Approximately 8% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown. The second reason is I trust Jason Campbell more than I did Case Keenum. Keenum was a complete unknown going into last week’s game. He couldn’t get himself drafted in 2012 and he hadn’t played an NFL snap in his career. That scared me. Campbell, however, is proven.

With the Raiders, he went 11-7 in 2010 and 2011 with a team that hadn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2003 and has gone 10-22 in their next 26 games without him. He really didn’t look good in about 6 quarters of work in place of an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, but he was facing two of the best defenses in the NFL last season in San Francisco and Houston in those two games and he had very little offensive supporting talent around him. He has 71 career starts so I’m not going to base my opinion on him off of 6 quarters last year. We know what he is. His career quarterback rating is 82.4 as he’s completed 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 76 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions.

He’s not great, but he’s alright and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade over Brandon Weeden. The Browns have a solid supporting cast. We saw Brian Hoyer win 3 games in 3 tries with the team earlier this season before tearing his ACL because he was able to get the ball to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron downfield and rely on a solid defense. Jason Campbell should be able to do his best Brian Hoyer impression.

It helps Campbell that the Browns are in a good spot this week, as I mentioned earlier. They are road dogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 95-55 ATS in since 2008 and a situation which historically covers at around a 65% rate, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. Meanwhile, while the Chiefs are 7-0 and have a top-5, arguably top-1 defense, they aren’t as good as their record. They don’t move the ball well offensively and they’ve faced a cupcake schedule and they’ve been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin of +11.

In 4 home games, they beaten the Texans and Cowboys by a point a piece and their games with the Giants and Raiders were within a touchdown going into the 4th quarter before a few fluky things busted things open. The Browns have a much better defense than those two teams so they should be able to keep it a close, low scoring game like the Texans and Cowboys did. Despite that, the public is still all over the undefeated Chiefs like they were last week. I expect a similar result and the odds makers to make money again.

The only concern here and the reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week is that Cleveland might lack enough focus to keep this close. They have a big divisional home game against the Ravens, while the Chiefs have no distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Non-divisional road dogs are 49-76 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs, while non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road favorites. However, since the Chiefs are 7-0, I think the Browns will be plenty focused. Home favorites who are 5-0 or better are 19-30 ATS since 2002. It’s a big play on the Browns.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

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