2013 Week 9 NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)

You could definitely still argue the Texans are underrated and are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That differential is 12th in the NFL. They have been killed by turnovers (-11), an inability to recover fumbles (37.5%), and a ridiculous amount of return touchdowns allowed (7 allowed, to 1 returned for themselves). Of course, most of that was done with Matt Schaub. Case Keenum is now their quarterback. He played well in his debut in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, but that was his first action of his career, so I can’t really say that I’m 100% sold on the former undrafted free agent.

However, there’s also a solid chance that Keenum can keep it up. I believe he deserves this 2nd start, even though I don’t think Schaub’s performance this season was representative of the type of quarterback he is. If that’s the case, the Colts, as good of a team as they are, don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. That’s relevant because road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS and 22-4 ATS in divisional games. The Texans are also coming off of a bye as well though and the public is all over Indianapolis. I’m not confident in either side, but if I had to, I’d fade the heavy public lean on Indianapolis and go with the possibly underrated Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

The Raiders won a close home game against the Steelers as underdogs last week, winning 21-18, but they didn’t play that well last week. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals by the Steelers that easily could have been made, the Steelers might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2). The Raiders are not nearly as good as their 3-4 record. They are moving the chains at a pathetic 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here at home over a Philadelphia team that ranks 24th with a differential around -3%.

The Raiders also could be completely flat after last week. Teams are 34-56 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 3 or fewer as underdogs, including 4-9 ATS as home favorites. If you go back to 1989 to get a better sample size, teams are 9-20 ATS as home favorites off of a close win as home underdogs. Going off of that, non-divisional home favorites are 61-84 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites and the Raiders go to New York this week to face the Giants. This is a complete trap game here for a Raider team that doesn’t deserve to be favorites in the first place.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Eagles. The first is that they have to go to Green Bay next week and teams are 33-68 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The second is I have no idea which Nick Foles is going to show up. Is he going to be the quarterback who completed 38 of 56 for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 quarters against the Giants and Buccaneers and looked like a potential franchise quarterback? Or is he going to be the quarterback who completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys before getting hurt? The Eagles should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4)

The Cowboys are in a bad spot this week in between a crushing loss in Detroit and a tough game in New Orleans. This home game against the Vikings is the definition of a trap game.  Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Meanwhile, favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again are 73-94 ATS. On top of that, the Cowboys haven’t been a very good team as big home favorites, going 5-10 ATS as home favorites of 6 or more since the new Cowboy Stadium opened in 2009.

It’s not going to be very big play on the Vikings at all though because they are a poorly quarterbacked team who we aren’t really getting any significant line value with. They are also expected to be without three starters in the secondary. However, they should be the right side. There’s a very good chance that, even if the Vikings get dominated, they could lead a garbage time cover against Dallas’ terrible defense, which is expected to be without DeMarcus Ware again. The Cowboys are my Survivor Pick though.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Minnesota Vikings 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Minnesota +10

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5)

One of the most powerful trends in the NFL says that road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. Road favorites are significantly superior teams and significantly superior teams tend to use the extra week very well and dominate their inferior opponent. The Chargers are road favorites in some places, but only of a point and they are also pick em elsewhere and 1 point underdogs in other places, so it’s not clear cut.

I do think they deserve to be road favorites though. They may just be 4-3, but they are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and they are 3-1 in games decided by more than a touchdown, as opposed to 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are winning despite getting killed in turnovers, -6, as a result of a league worst 15.4% fumble recovery rate. That won’t continue going forward.

Their offense has been incredible as Philip Rivers is playing at a borderline MVP level with a marginal at best offensive supporting cast. He’s been rejuvenated with new Head Coach Mike McCoy. He is completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions and ProFootballFocus grades him as the #2 passing quarterback behind Peyton Manning. He is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, which is incredible, only behind Denver.

They have plenty of problems on their skeleton crew defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, good for a differential that is 9th best in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, sit at 23rd, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Chargers deserve to be road favorites by at least a couple points here and, coming out of a bye, they have a very good chance of winning in a shootout, against a very even line.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play though. One is that they aren’t really true road favorites. The other is they could be much more distracted than Washington with a home game against Denver on deck. The Redskins, meanwhile, go to Minnesota next week so they don’t have any distractions. Again, I know they aren’t true road favorites, but for reference, non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home favorites, including 2-9 ATS when their opponent will next be non-road favorites. Favorites in general are 45-80 ATS before being dogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2010. I like San Diego to win a shootout, but I’m not confident.

San Diego Chargers 34 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: San Diego PK

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

The Packers have been so dominant at home over the past few seasons that they’re almost an automatic bet at home. They are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010. They are large favorites here at -11, but that’s not an issue. They are 9-4 ATS as double digit home favorites in that time frame. Besides, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least 11 points. In fact, this line might even be too low, before you even take into account their home dominance.

After they started the year 1-2, the Packers are now 5-2. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 2nd best differential in the NFL. 4 of their first 7 games, including their 2 losses, came against top-15 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier down the stretch and things will only get better as they get guys back from injuries.

They are still missing significant parts of their team for this game, but they draft and player develop so well that they have enough depth to make up for it. Guys like Jamari Lattimore have stepped up big time when needed. They’ve blown out their last 2 opponents, including a win in Minnesota last week in which they accumulated 26 first downs and didn’t punt once. They have another chance to get a blowout victory here against an inferior opponent and I think they have a very good chance to do so here this week.

The Bears are 4-3, but they are not as good as their record. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77% rate and allowing opponents to do the same. Their once dominant defense has been horrendous this season thanks to age (4 of their top-5 guys are in their age 30 season or older), injury (Henry Melton is out for the year, Charles Tillman is dealing with an injury that is limiting him significantly, now Lance Briggs is out indefinitely), and departed coaches (Lovie Smith, Rod Marinelli) and it seems to get worse every week.

Their offense has been what has been carrying them this season, but that took a serious hit when Jay Cutler suffered a groin injury that is going to cause him to miss about a month. Not only are they not as good as their 4-3 record, but things are going to get worse going forward. Josh McCown played well in place of Cutler against Washington, completing 14 of 20 for 204 yards and a touchdown in an eventual 45-41 loss and it’s possible their offensive coaching staff could coach him up, with a solid supporting cast, but I definitely have my doubts in him.

In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions on 1133 attempts. I have this line calculated at -9 on paper, but when you take into account Chicago’s injury situation and Green Bay’s home dominance, the 11 point line not only makes sense, but might even be too low. I have a good deal of confidence in the Packers this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)

The Panthers are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and have the 5th best point differential in the NFL, on the strength of the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 3rd best rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, Vegas knows this too as this line is pretty high at 7.5. We are getting some line value with the Panthers as I have this line calculated at -10, but not a ton. The Panthers also always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 31-13 win over the Buccaneers, they are now 4-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.0 points per game.

The Falcons are in a good situation too though. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They also usually bounce back well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, going 20-7 ATS off of a loss since he took over in 2008, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be distracted with a trip to San Francisco on deck. Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Atlanta could be distracted as well with a home game against the Seahawks on deck, but they really need this divisional game to save their season so they should be focused. As long as the line is bigger than 7, I’m going to take the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 30 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5)

Damnit. I was so ready to pick an upset here for Buffalo. Buffalo is better than their record, especially at home. In 4 home games, they’ve beaten a pair of top-15 teams on these Power Rankings (Carolina, Baltimore) and almost beat another pair of top-10 teams (New England, Cincinnati). I don’t think the Chiefs are significantly better than the teams the Bills have played close and beaten here in Buffalo.

The Chiefs are 8-0, but they aren’t nearly as good as their record. They are overly reliant on winning the turnover battle (+12), recovering fumbles (63.6%), and winning close games (3-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less), in addition to their cupcake schedule (5 of their opponents are in the bottom-10 of my Power Rankings). In the past 2 weeks, they won at home by a combined 7 points over two 3rd string quarterbacks (Jason Campbell, Case Keenum). They are just 10th in DVOA, as opposed to 17th for Buffalo.

There’s a reason this line is only 4. It’s clearly a trap line and the public is all over it, with a huge amount of the action on the Chiefs. It makes sense. The general public looks at this and is like “the Chiefs are 8-0 and the Bills are 3-5, how can they not win by more than 4? FREE MONEY!!!” That’s how not it works. If it was, everyone would be rich and the odds makers would be out of business, instead of building giant casinos in the desert. The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. Road favorites are 24-41 ATS since 1989 off of 3 straight home games. They won’t be used to a hostile environment after nearly a month at home.

However, Thaddeus Lewis is not expected to play in this one with injury and illness, meaning undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel will get the start. He was understandably awful in Cleveland in the only action of his career, going 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six. You couldn’t pay me to bet anything on him (that’s not true, I’d bet the amount of money you paid me to bet on them), especially since the line hasn’t really moved. I’d still take the Bills out of principle if I had to because I still believe it’s a trap line, but Jeff Tuel sucks.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Buffalo +4

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1)

The Seahawks came up kind of flat in St. Louis last week as a huge favorites against an inferior opponent, winning only by the score of 14-9. However, they get another opportunity to blow out an inferior opponent and cover a huge spread here this week and the difference is they are at home. They’ve been incredible at home since 2007, to the point where you can almost just blindly bet them at home. They are 36-16 ATS at home over that time frame, including 20-8 ATS as home favorites, and 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 8-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season.

They’re in another good spot as non-divisional home favorites are 68-46 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites. They are in Atlanta next week, as they have no serious distraction keeping them from blowing out the Buccaneers here. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home underdogs, a spot teams are 80-113 ATS in since 2002. They’re also a very good chance they’ve just quit on their Head Coach Greg Schiano at 0-7 and won’t be able to do anything about Seattle just running up the score on them, as they are one to do. The Seahawks should be able to cover this large line.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

Pick against spread: Seattle -16

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at New York Jets: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4)

This game features by far the biggest line movement of the week, as the line has shifted 3.5 points since last week, as a result of the Jets’ 49-9 loss in Cincinnati last week. The line is now at a touchdown in favor of New Orleans and the public is still all over them. I think that’s a huge overreaction and, of course, I love fading teams that the public is all over as well. Sure, the Jets looked awful last week, but that was still one game.

That was completely uncharacteristic for their defense, which is still allowing opponents to move the chains at a very solid 70% rate. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 69% rate, so that’s obviously their biggest problem, but this line is still way too high. The Saints are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but I still have the line calculated at around 4 or 4.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the Jets as a result of what happened last week and the subsequent line movement.

That’s usually what happens after a team gets blown out. Teams are 43-23 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more, including 19-6 ATS as home dogs. Teams that are in that situation tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Jets would qualify as all three right now. Remember, they are still 4-4 and have been alternating wins and losses all season. I wouldn’t overlook them.

The Jets seem to especially be good in situations like this when the media is destroying them. That’s just something I’ve noticed with them over the past couple of years. I mentioned they’ve been alternating wins and losses all season. They are also 4-2 ATS off of a loss by 14 or more over the past 2 seasons, which just puts that into a number. Rex Ryan is very good at getting his team motivated by the media trashing them, which happens more often that it should.

The Saints, meanwhile, are not as good on the road as they are at home. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating drops about 11 points on the road historically, dating back to 2008. This year, in 3 home games, they’ve almost lost in winless Tampa Bay, they won by 8 in Chicago, which isn’t as impressive as it seemed at the time, and they lost in New England in a game they trailed most of the way against a Patriot team that isn’t nearly as good as they’ve been in recent years. They could easily lose in New York and I really like the Jets’ chances of covering here.

New Orleans Saints 19 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2)

The Steelers once again came up flat as non-divisional road favorites last week, losing in Oakland, a situation they are now 6-18 ATS since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. However, I was actually impressed with them. Another loss on their record doesn’t help their playoff chances, but, result aside, they were easily the better team in that matchup. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals that easily could have been made, they might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2).

They’re moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. Record aside, they’re not playing a whole lot worse than the Patriots. While the Steelers rank 15th in rate of moving the chains, the Patriots rank 14th, moving the chains at a below average 72% rate and relying on a solid defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. Football Outsiders agrees, as they have the Patriots 13th in DVOA, while the Steelers are 16th. The Patriots have been overly reliant on winning close games (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover battle (+7), recovering fumbles (63.6%), and playing an easy schedule (only 2 games against teams ranked in the top-16 of my Power Rankings).

It needs to be said. Tom Brady looks more like a former 6th round pick than a 3-time Super Bowl winner this year. Pro Football Focus grades him out as the 24th ranked passing quarterback out of 37 eligible. He is completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 74.9, which ranks 27th, right between Chad Henne and Carson Palmer. South Park portrayed him very accurately this week when they suggested he was playing like he took a bunch of laxatives. He could definitely get better by the end of the season and he’s proven in the past it isn’t wise to bet against him in the long-term, but in the short-term, I have no problem with doing it as long as the public doesn’t realize how bad he’s playing, inflating the line. While I don’t doubt it could happen, I’ll have to see him improve to believe it at this point.

I thought it would get better when Rob Gronkowski returned, but in his 2nd game back Brady completed 13 of 22 for 116 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception against a weak Miami defense and really didn’t look good. They won by 10 on the strength of their defense, which will get better with Aqib Talib expected to return this week, but they, by no means, deserve to be favored by 7 points here. Remember, they are still missing Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork. Their defense still isn’t at full stretch. We’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Steelers, if not more.

They’ve been even better since the bye. Over the past three weeks they have 53 first downs to 14 punts and 3 turnovers (a 76% rate), as opposed to 50 first downs, 18 punts, and 5 turnovers for their opponents (a 68% rate). They’ll be underrated going forward, as they are here. Their once again dominant defense should be able to shut down the stumbling Patriots’ offense. The Steelers had a big problem with turnovers early in the season (-11), but, as turnover margins normally do, they’ve improved since the bye (+2) and they could improve even more going forward as they are still recovering fumbles at just a 23.5% rate, which won’t continue. They’ve also gotten guys back from injury and are overall just playing better since the bye.

They’re also in a great spot here, as a result of last week’s loss. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They’ll also be completely focused with a home game against the Bills next week. Since 2008, non-divisional road underdogs are 97-61 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.

The Patriots will also be completely focused, going into their bye, which is the only reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week for Pittsburgh. Teams are 39-14 as home favorites of 7 or more since 2002. However, I think the fact that the Patriots definitely don’t deserve to be favored by 7 cancels that out a little bit. Besides, there are places they are 6.5 point favorites so it’s not like they’re a consensus 7 point favorite, for whatever that matters. As long as I can get Pittsburgh at +7, this is a high confidence pick.

New England Patriots 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +7

Confidence: High

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