2013 Week 9 NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-4)

Obviously, 3-4 is not how the Ravens wanted to start the season, but the schedule gets easier from here for them. After being underdogs in 5 of their first 7 games, the Ravens will definitely be favored in at 4 games (@Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Minnesota) the rest of the way and may be favored in another 3 (vs. Cincinnati, vs. New England, @ Chicago). This is one of them, as they go to Cleveland as road favorites.

Cleveland isn’t an awful team or anything, but the Ravens still deserve to be favored by this margin. Both offenses are sputtering, moving the chains at a 70% rate, but the Ravens’ defense has been significantly better, as opponents are moving the chains at just a 68% rate against them, as opposed to 75% against the Browns’ defense. The Ravens should be able to completely shut down the Browns’ offense this week, which obviously gives them a huge advantage.

The fact that the Ravens deserve to be road favorites is especially important because of how good road favorites are off of a bye. Teams are 45-18 ATS in that situation since 2002, including an absurd 22-4 ATS in a divisional matchup. This makes sense as good teams tend to be extra focused and take care of business against an inferior opponent with an extra week to prepare. John Harbaugh has been pretty good off of a bye himself since taking over the Ravens in 2008, going 6-1 ATS and winning all 7 games, including last year’s Super Bowl.

The Ravens could also be in another good spot if they are favored next week at home against Cincinnati. The early line was at PK, but after Cincinnati’s loss to Miami and their loss of Geno Atkins, we could easily see the Ravens favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points, which would make this trend kick in. Since 2002, divisional road favorites are 38-22 ATS before being divisional home favorites. The Ravens are in great position to roll over an inferior opponent here (as they did 25-15 in almost this exact situation in Cleveland last year) and they are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Rams, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

On paper, these two teams are pretty equal. The Titans are 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams are 22nd. The Titans move the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. However, these two teams are trending in opposite directions at the quarterback position. While the Rams are going into their 2nd full game without quarterback Sam Bradford, the Titans are going into their 2nd full game with quarterback Jake Locker back from injury.

Kellen Clemens, Bradford’s backup, is now the starter in St. Louis and he played as you would have expected him to play against an elite defense last week against the Seahawks, going 15 of 31 for 158 yards and 2 interceptions, while failing to lead the Rams to an offensive touchdown. The Rams kept it close against the Seahawks thanks to an inspired effort by the Rams’ defense in a 14-9 loss, but I question if they can keep that up. That performance was pretty uncharacteristic when you look at their whole season. If they can’t, the Rams are going to be in a lot of trouble.

The Titans, meanwhile, were 3-1 when Jake Locker went down with injury. They’ve lost their last 3 games, the first two with limited backup Ryan Fitzpatrick and the third with a clearly unhealthy Jake Locker, who was forced back too soon. Now after a bye for Locker to rest, he should be much better than he was last time, 2 weeks removed from his last performance, and he should be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The schedule also gets easier for the Titans. It also didn’t help that those 3 games were against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers. Those might not be the best three teams in the NFL, but certainly no reasonable person would call you crazy if you named those 3 as the best three teams in the NFL. The Titans were actually competitive in 2 of those 3 games, a testament to their strong defense. If Locker can continue playing solid football like he was pre-injury, the Titans should be able to play like they did when they started the season 3-1, now that the tough part of their season is over.

Given that, I think it’s very reasonable that the Titans are favored by 3 here. The line might actually be too low if anything. The Seahawks/Rams line shifted 6 points when Bradford went down and rightfully so. This line suggests that the Rams would be favored by 3 here if Bradford were healthy, which suggests that the Rams with Sam Bradford and the Titans with Jake Locker are essentially equivalent teams, which I don’t think is true.

The fact that the Titans deserve to be road favorites is especially relevant considering how well road favorites play coming out of byes, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. The Titans are a quality football team and should be completely focused and run over a significantly inferior football team here. The Rams, meanwhile, could be completely flat 6 days removed from a last second loss to hated divisional rival Seattle.

They’re also in a bad spot as they go to Indianapolis next week, when they’re expected to be 12 point underdogs. Teams are 33-68 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. The Rams probably will not be focused enough to pull the upset, which is essentially what they’d have to do to cover this 3 point spread, as only about 8% of games are decided by less than 3 points. The Titans, meanwhile, have no distractions with a home game against the Jaguars on deck. I think this could easily be a blowout and the Titans are a high confidence pick.

Tennessee Titans 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

I could go either way on this one. The Bengals had a huge offensive outburst last week, scoring 49 points. Ordinarily, teams are able to maintain that kind of momentum into their next week. Favorites are 27-17 ATS since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. However, they are just 14-11 ATS as road favorites. The line did shift a point and a half since last week as a result of the Bengals’ blowout and the public is still all over the Bengals, but it didn’t pass the key number of 3 and I don’t think the line is ridiculous or anything.

I don’t like we’re getting serious value with the Bengals or anything, but the Dolphins are still not as good as their record. They’re moving the chains at a 71% rate offensively as a result of a terrible offensive line, while their retooled defense isn’t living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. That differential is 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 11th in the NFL. I have the line calculated at about 3 or 3.5 in favor of Cincinnati. I have no confidence in either side, but I’ll take the Bengals as long as it’s below the key number of 3 and hope for a field goal game.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]