2014 NFL Free Agency

Indianapolis Colts sign DE Arthur Jones

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Colts, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

A 2010 5th round pick, Arthur Jones has developed from a solid reserve in 2011 on 255 snaps to a solid starter on 536 snaps to a breakout player in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end. Now he reunites with his former defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, the head coach in Indianapolis, and fills a need at 5-technique defensive end for the Colts. They needed someone to rotate with Ricky Jean-Francois and Cory Redding, especially with the latter going into his age 34 season.

However, I do think they overpaid giving Jones 33 million over 5 years with 16 million guaranteed. At his best, he’s worth that kind of money, but he’s still just a one year wonder at this point in his career. There’s no guarantee he’ll continue to be this good. He’s never played more than 536 snaps in a season and he’s never been the key cog on Baltimore’s defensive line, rotating often and playing alongside Haloti Ngata. It’s a risky contract. I had him valued in the 5-6 million dollar range yearly so 6.6 million is an overpay.

Grade: B

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Philadelphia Eagles sign CB Nolan Carroll

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Nolan Carroll has seen his snap count increase in each of the past 3 seasons, going from 330, to 653, to 809 snaps from 2011-2013. He’s been roughly an average player on Pro Football Focus the whole time and is now an average starter. Last season he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked cornerback, right in the middle of the pack, allowing 47.8% completion, which was actually the 4th lowest in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks.

He’s a good addition for a Philadelphia team that could use competition for Cary Williams at cornerback. He was Pro Football Focus’ 80th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible last season. His 4.75 million dollar salary for 2014 has already been guaranteed by virtue of him being on the roster on March 16th, but Carroll comes as cheap competition (5.25 million over 2 years). This is a solid value.

Grade: A-

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Arizona Cardinals sign CB Antonio Cromartie

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

A league average cornerback from 2009-2011, Cromartie had a dominant 2012 campaign, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked overall cornerback and 5th ranked cornerback in pure coverage grade, allowing just 46.0% completion, 5th lowest in the NFL. That was a big part of the reason why the Jets felt comfortable moving on from Darrelle Revis. Cromartie looked like a mini-Revis. However, Cromartie was awful in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th worst cornerback, 2nd worst in terms of coverage grade. He was torched with regularity, allowing 19.1 yards per completion, 2nd highest in the NFL. That led to his release from the Jets, which saved them 9.5 million on the cap.

The Cardinals are taking a flier on Cromartie here with a one-year prove it deal worth 3.25 million dollars. It’s possible his rapid decline last season was largely due to a hip injury and if he’s healthy in 2014, he could be a lot better. He’s only going into his age 30 season. It’s a worthwhile gamble for a Cardinals team that had issues at cornerback opposite Patrick Peterson last season, one of their few holes on an overall strong defense. He’ll compete with Antoine Cason for the starting job and could make Cason a cap casualty eventually. If it doesn’t work out, it’s just a one year deal.

Grade: A-

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Buffalo Bills sign MLB Brandon Spikes

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bills, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Brandon Spikes was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season, but that’s a little misleading. That was fueled solely by his run play as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ first ranked middle linebacker in terms of run grade by a mile, but he ranked 38th out of 55 middle linebackers in terms of coverage grade. He also played only 694 snaps as a part-time two-down player. He’s a pure base package player in a league that’s devaluing pure base package players, though he’s an excellent one at that.

This isn’t a new thing for him. In 2012, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, including 1st as a run stopper, playing just 742 snaps. In 2011, he graded out 18th among middle linebackers, 19th in run grade, and played 364 snaps. In 2010, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, 4th in run grade, and played 356 snaps. He also has a history of injury and issues with the coaching staff. All this being said, he is phenomenal at what he does and this contract (3.5 million over 1 year) is very reasonable for a Buffalo team that needs middle linebacker help. He’s a much better version of Arthur Moats, who played two-downs for the Bills last year, with safety Da’Norris Searcy coming down and playing linebacker in obvious passing situations.

Grade: A

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Baltimore Ravens sign WR Steve Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Steve Smith had 64 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. Excluding the Jimmy Clausen season and his injury plagued 2004 season, those were his worst since his rookie year in 2001. That’s just what happens to receivers this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.

Steve Smith is 19th in all-time receiving yards yardage, but he’s also going into his age 35 season. That’s why it’s risky to give him a 3-year 10.5 million dollar deal, even if only the first year’s salary of 4.5 million is guaranteed, and why it was a good idea for the Panthers to cut him, even if they were incredibly thin at wide receiver. Even a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal for Steve Smith is too much, even for a wide receiver needy team like the Ravens. Steve Smith has had a great career, but there’s a chance he just falls off a cliff in terms of his abilities in his age 35 season.

Grade: C

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Kansas City Chiefs sign DE Vance Walker

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Vance Walker has been one of the most underrated interior defensive linemen in the NFL over the past 2 seasons. He’s been an above average starter in both Atlanta and Oakland over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle and 36th ranked defensive tackle in the past 2 seasons respectively. Despite his strong 2012 in Atlanta, he was only able to land a one-year deal in Oakland last off-season and after another strong season in Oakland in 2013, he was still only able to land a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Chiefs (with another 3 million available through incentives)

Obviously this was a great deal for the Chiefs, who needed another starter on the defensive line after losing Tyson Jackson to the Falcons. Walker isn’t as good of a pure run stopper as Jackson, but he’s a much better pass rusher capable of playing all 3 downs if need be, which wasn’t true of Jackson. Considering Jackson landed 25 million over 5 years in Atlanta, with more money guaranteed (11 million) as the total value of this contract, it’s a bargain for the Chiefs. The only minor concern is that Walker has never played in a true 3-4 and at 6-2 305, he’s not an obvious fit at 5-technique defensive end.

Grade: A-

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Oakland Raiders re-sign RB Darren McFadden

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Darren McFadden has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 3 seasons since, he’s played a total of 29 games out of 48 and rushed for just 1700 yards and 11 touchdowns on 446 carries (3.8 yards per carry).

This season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked running back. Even with the big 2010 season, he’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 223 carries or 270 touches. In his 2nd straight season of sub-3.5 yards per carry in 2013, he was benched for backup Rashad Jennings following an injury. McFadden supporters always seem to make excuses for him, blaming the blocking scheme, and the lack of supporting talent, or injuries, but at a certain point when he needs to be written off as a bust.

This 1-year, 4 million dollar deal won’t hurt the Raiders long-term, but they’re giving him another chance to be the starter when I don’t think he deserves it. Even if it is a one-year deal, this contract has an annual value higher than every other running back signed this off-season, including Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million) Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million). Guys like Andre Brown, Knowshon Moreno, and Maurice Jones-Drew, all still available, probably will get less than 4 million yearly as well when they end up getting signed.

Most of, if not all of those running backs are better than McFadden. The Raiders would have been better off re-signing Jennings to a contract similar to the one the Giants gave him. Jennings, with the Raiders last year, rushed for 733 yards and 6 touchdowns on 163 carries, an average of 4.5 yards per carry, and added 36 catches for 292 yards through the air, taking over as the starter for Darren McFadden mid-season. Even if they didn’t want to go that direction, there were a number of better things they could have done at the running back position this off-season.

Grade: C

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Green Bay Packers re-sign DT BJ Raji

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

BJ Raji reportedly turned down a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension from the Packers before last season. If that’s true, he has to be kicking himself hard. This 1-year, 4 million dollar deal is a steep fall from that. The Packers originally offered Raji this 1-year, 4 million dollar deal before the start of the off-season, but he turned it down in favor of hitting the open market. Clearly, the open market did not prove to be as lucrative as he expected as he was forced to settle for that one-year deal. It’s a rough off-season for him.

However, that’s what happens when you have as bad of a season as Raji had last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 defensive end this season. This type of thing is nothing new for him. Sure, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012 (with 3 games at nose tackle in which he was about average), but he has a history of inconsistency. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle in 2011, but in 2010, he was their 28th ranked defensive tackle before a dominant post-season on the Packers’ Super Bowl run.

Committing a massive long-term contract to him would have been a huge mistake, even last season coming off of a strong season, so the Packers did well to get him on a one-year prove it deal. It might not necessarily pan out, but at his best he’s a talented and versatile defensive lineman who can play every spot on a 3-man defensive line, stuff the run and disrupt with interior penetration in sub packages.

Grade: B+

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Washington Redskins re-sign MLB Perry Riley

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Perry Riley, a 2010 4th round pick, has been starting for the Redskins at middle linebacker for about 2 ½ years, since the middle of the 2011 season. He was about an average starter in both 2011 and 2012, for the first 1 ½ year and a half of his career, but he struggled mightily in his contract year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 46th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Given that, the Redskins are overpaying him giving him 13 million over 3 years (with his first year’s salary of 6 million guaranteed). That being said, the Redskins’ dire need at middle linebacker and his previous history as an average starter make this a little bit better of a deal.

Grade: C+

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Houston Texans sign QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Texans, Uncategorized

After pawning Matt Schaub’s fat contract off on the Raiders and somehow getting a draft pick out of it, the Texans were left without a veteran quarterback to compete with a quarterback they presumably will draft in May’s 2014 NFL Draft. Neither Case Keenum nor TJ Yates were viable options. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick won’t set the world on fire or anything, but he has 75 starts over the last 6 seasons combined and he’s fared reasonable well, displaying himself to at least be a top-40 quarterback and a competent spot starter in the NFL, which is something the Texans didn’t previously have.

He’s completed 1479 of 2464 (60.0%) for 16013 yards (6.50 YPA), 102 touchdowns, and 85 interceptions during that time period. Now after signing Fitzpatrick, the Texans won’t have to force a rookie quarterback into action before he’s ready, which is critical, and the price is very reasonable. Fitzpatrick’s contract is worth 7.5 million over 2 years (with just the first year’s salary of 4 million guaranteed), which looks good when compared to deals received by Josh McCown (2 years, 10 million), Matt Moore (2 years, 8 million), Matt Cassel (2 years, 10 million), Michael Vick (1 year, 5 million) and Chad Henne (2 years, 8 million) over the past 2 off-seasons. Fitzpatrick is probably in the high end of that group of quarterbacks and he’s making less yearly than all of them. This is a very solid deal.

Grade: A

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