2014 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of 1.11%. The Packers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 78.69% rate, as opposed to 77.99% for their opponents, a differential of 0.70% that ranks 15th in the NFL. They’ve been overly reliant on a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +8 turnover margin. However, the Packers have been significantly better at home, moving the chains at a 78.13% rate, as opposed to 69.39% for their opponents in 3 home games this season, a differential of 8.74%.

This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 23-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 29-4 straight up, with an absurd +469 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is 19-10 ATS off of a loss in his career and 11-2 ATS in his career against the Bears, while Mike McCarthy is 8-0 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career. The Bears have an easy game against the Vikings up next and divisional road underdogs are 59-41 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. I also wish this line was smaller. It’s currently at 7.5 and it would have to be below a touchdown for me to make this a higher confidence pick, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Giants, Seahawks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

The Seahawks have fallen flat at home in their previous 2 home games, losing as big home favorites to the Cowboys and then beating the lowly Raiders by just 6 points last week as 14 point favorites. However, I still really like them at home. I don’t think those 2 games erase their extensive recent history of home dominance. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 44-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.47 points per game.

This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 20-2 straight up and 15-7 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.09 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 7.57 points per game.

The Seahawks’ relative struggles in their last 2 home games are giving us good value here with the Seahawks as they are just 8 point favorites over the Giants. Remember, they were 7.5 point favorites over the Packers, who are much better than the Giants, earlier this season and the Seahawks won very easily. Obviously, the Seahawks haven’t been playing as well recently as they were to start the season, but they’re getting both Max Unger and Russell Okung back from injury, while Byron Maxwell is listed as questionable to return.

Unger, their best offensive lineman, has been out since week 5. Okung missed last week. Maxwell has been out since week 6. They’re getting healthier and I expect them to be playing with a little bit more of a chip on their shoulders this week as they’re kind of getting lost in the Super Bowl contenders discussion. They’re also in a good spot as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, with a trip to Kansas City on deck. Teams are 80-52 ATS in that situation since 2008. The Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites tend to be significantly superior teams and it’s logical that significantly superior teams would be able to play really well off of a bye. The Falcons haven’t played well at all this season, but they’re still significantly better than the lowly Buccaneers. The Falcons rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.74%, while the Buccaneers rank 30th, moving the chains at a 69.74% rate, as opposed to 76.51% for their opponents, a differential of -6.78%. The Buccaneers will be even worse this week with Alterraun Verner out with injury.

The issue here is that the Falcons are only 2.5 point favorites. When you break down those aforementioned trends even more, you see that teams are 40-12 ATS off of a bye as road favorites of 3 or more and just 10-9 ATS as favorites of less than 3, including 21-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS respectively in divisional matchups. However, the logic still does hold that the Falcons would be better prepared for this game as a significantly better team on the road off a bye. The Falcons are even 3 point favorites in some places. I don’t think that trend can be completely discounted just because the Falcons aren’t 3 point favorites everywhere.

On top of that, they generally do well off a loss in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, going 24-13 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams on long losing streaks like the Falcons are on right now do well off a bye, as teams on 5+ game losing streaks are 22-9 ATS off a bye. The bye tends to give teams like that a chance to collect themselves and come back stronger after the bye. I like the Falcons’ bounce back chances here against a terrible Tampa Bay team. Tampa Bay has been especially bad at home over the past few years, going 13-30 ATS at home since 2009.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Ravens, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

The Ravens have lost two straight, but I really like their chances of bouncing back here in a big way for a variety of reasons. For one thing, they’ve historically done very well off of big losses in the John Harbaugh era, going 8-2 ATS off of a loss by 10 more since Harbaugh and Joe Flacco came to town in 2008. They didn’t fare well last week off of a close loss in Cincinnati week 8, but getting blown out in Pittsburgh last week could easily be the wakeup call this well-coached, veteran squad needed to get back on track.

They also return home, where they’ve fared very well since 2008. The Ravens are 44-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, at home, as opposed to 32-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.94 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also certainly helps that they’re playing a weak opponent, as the 2-6 Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

They rank 31st in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.30% rate, as opposed to 75.44% for their opponents, a differential of -7.14%. They’re also starting a 6th round rookie quarterback in Zach Mettenberger and they got destroyed at home by Houston in his first career start. On the flip side, the Ravens rank 6th, moving the chains at a 76.27% rate, as opposed to 72.32% for their opponents, a differential of 3.95%. As high as this line is at 10, I don’t think it’s high enough.

Speaking of this line being high, the Ravens are in a fantastic spot as big home favorites heading into a bye, as teams are 68-29 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye. Teams in that situation tend to be able to take care of business and then some with no distractions on the horizon. I expect the Ravens to be completely focused coming off of a big loss at home going into a bye and be able to blow out a significantly inferior Tennessee team.

Conversely, the Titans have another tough game against the Steelers on deck, which will serve as a big distractions. The early line for that game is 4.5 in favor of the Steelers on the road in Tennessee. Teams are 57-82 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, including 28-57 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. This should be a very easy Baltimore win.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Tennessee Titans 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -10

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 78.40% rate, as opposed to 71.18% for their opponents, a differential of 7.22%. That might sound absurd considering they’re just 5-3, but they have a +62 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, with those 3 wins coming by a combined 7 points. In one of their two wins by more than a touchdown, a 43-23 win over a terrible Jets team, they had a +6 turnover margin, which is not sustainable at all, as turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. At the same time, teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

The Jets actually won the chain game in that game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers. On the season, the Bills rank just 24th in the NFL rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.24% rate, as opposed to 68.32% for their opponents, a differential of -3.08%. This line at just 1.5 in favor of Kansas City seems way too small. However, the Chiefs are in a bad spot with a game against the Seahawks on deck, a big distraction. Teams are 22-40 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Update: The Chiefs are now underdogs, which nullifies that aforementioned trend I was worried about. The Chiefs still aren’t in an ideal spot, but neither are the Bills who have to go to Miami next week. The Chiefs are a significantly better team than the Bills so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 19 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as their record or as good as they’ve been in recent years, as a result of injuries to guys like AJ Green, Kevin Zeitler, Marvin Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Leon Hall, and Giovani Bernard and off-season losses of guys like Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, and coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer.

Green is back now, but they are still missing a lot of very important guys. They are 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.18% rate, as opposed to 74.91% for their opponents, a differential of -2.73%. The Browns aren’t as good as their record either, but they still rank higher than the Bengals. They rank 19th, moving the chains at a 70.52% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.91%.

However, the Bengals have been a lot better at home this season, moving the chains at a 78.49% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.20%. This is nothing new for them as they have been dominant at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-1-1 at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game, going 11-3 against the spread. That being said, they’ve been overrated all season because of their record so that has nullified most of that homefield advantage. Last week, I was hesitant to pick them at home as 11.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, a game in which they won by 10. They’re still a way better home team than road team, but they aren’t an auto-bet at home anymore.

Given that, I like the Browns this week as they are in a good spot. While the Bengals have to go to New Orleans next week, the Browns host the mediocre Texans, which is going to be a much smaller distraction. Teams are 49-35 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-98 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Browns should be the right side and if this line moves to a touchdown before game time it might become a medium confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 10

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 217 27 14 23 15 3 0 81.61%
2 DEN 184 31 9 39 6 4 0 78.75%
3 GB 166 26 12 28 7 3 2 78.69%
4 KC 174 22 13 32 7 2 0 78.40%
5 IND 235 32 20 36 15 4 1 77.84%
6 PIT 208 26 15 41 9 4 0 77.23%
7 CHI 179 21 9 30 15 5 0 77.22%
8 DAL 200 24 18 31 17 2 0 76.71%
9 BAL 200 25 22 28 14 6 0 76.27%
10 NE 199 26 25 39 6 4 0 75.25%
11 SD 177 23 14 40 9 3 0 75.19%
12 SEA 159 20 18 34 6 2 1 74.58%
13 MIA 178 20 20 28 12 8 0 74.44%
14 ATL 166 22 10 35 14 6 1 74.02%
15 NYG 173 22 8 44 14 5 0 73.31%
16 CAR 185 17 19 41 12 2 0 73.19%
17 WAS 187 22 16 40 17 4 0 73.08%
18 SF 159 16 18 34 9 4 0 72.92%
19 ARZ 159 19 16 44 6 1 0 72.65%
20 PHI 184 20 16 39 21 2 0 72.34%
21 CIN 158 21 20 36 10 3 0 72.18%
22 STL 153 15 13 37 13 3 0 71.79%
23 DET 153 17 19 37 11 2 0 71.13%
24 CLE 158 19 16 45 7 6 0 70.52%
25 HOU 167 19 18 44 14 3 0 70.19%
26 TB 143 16 12 36 16 4 1 69.74%
27 NYJ 175 16 16 45 18 6 0 69.20%
28 MIN 171 15 19 50 12 4 0 68.63%
29 TEN 138 15 13 41 11 4 2 68.30%
30 JAX 162 16 15 51 19 4 0 66.67%
31 OAK 130 14 10 46 16 2 0 66.06%
32 BUF 135 17 19 47 11 3 1 65.24%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 164 15 19 43 18 3 0 68.32%
2 DET 148 13 12 45 12 4 1 68.51%
3 MIA 143 16 13 36 18 5 0 68.83%
4 PHI 163 20 14 50 11 5 0 69.58%
5 KC 150 13 17 38 5 6 0 71.18%
6 CLE 176 19 15 43 13 6 1 71.43%
7 IND 179 24 11 50 13 7 0 71.48%
8 MIN 172 22 14 48 12 3 0 71.59%
9 ARZ 163 17 13 39 16 3 0 71.71%
10 BAL 177 19 18 38 13 5 1 72.32%
11 SEA 154 17 15 37 10 2 1 72.46%
12 WAS 174 24 13 51 8 3 0 72.53%
13 DEN 175 21 14 44 9 4 1 73.13%
14 NYJ 163 28 15 52 3 0 0 73.18%
15 JAX 189 22 19 43 10 5 0 73.26%
16 DAL 163 21 11 38 14 4 0 73.31%
17 NE 199 21 18 35 18 9 0 73.33%
18 HOU 197 23 14 42 21 3 0 73.33%
19 NYG 164 22 17 35 13 2 0 73.52%
20 PIT 188 22 20 39 13 1 1 73.94%
21 SF 149 19 8 36 13 2 0 74.01%
22 CIN 190 19 20 31 13 5 1 74.91%
23 TEN 191 21 19 35 11 4 0 75.44%
24 SD 180 23 12 37 9 7 1 75.46%
25 OAK 170 21 19 33 6 4 0 75.49%
26 STL 162 20 15 32 10 2 0 75.52%
27 ATL 177 23 21 30 13 0 0 75.76%
28 CHI 166 22 21 22 12 4 0 76.11%
29 TB 190 25 22 31 12 1 0 76.51%
30 NO 167 20 15 31 9 1 1 76.64%
31 CAR 201 28 16 31 16 2 0 77.89%
32 GB 188 21 12 26 15 6 0 77.99%

 

Overall

1 KC 7.22%
2 IND 6.36%
3 DEN 5.62%
4 MIA 5.60%
5 NO 4.97%
6 BAL 3.95%
7 DAL 3.41%
8 PIT 3.28%
9 PHI 2.76%
10 DET 2.62%
11 SEA 2.13%
12 NE 1.92%
13 CHI 1.11%
14 ARZ 0.94%
15 GB 0.70%
16 WAS 0.55%
17 NYG -0.21%
18 SD -0.28%
19 CLE -0.91%
20 SF -1.09%
21 ATL -1.74%
22 CIN -2.73%
23 MIN -2.95%
24 BUF -3.08%
25 HOU -3.14%
26 STL -3.72%
27 NYJ -3.98%
28 CAR -4.70%
29 JAX -6.60%
30 TB -6.78%
31 TEN -7.14%
32 OAK -9.44%

2014 Week 9 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 6-7

Straight Up: 7-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-2

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 1-3

Upset Picks: 1-2

On the season

Against the Spread: 82-51-1 (.617)

Straight Up: 89-44-1 (.669)

Pick of the Week: 6-3

High Confidence: 6-6

Medium Confidence: 31-11

Low Confidence: 18-16-1

No Confidence: 21-15

Upset Picks: 11-10

Survivor Picks: 7-2 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET, SEA, BAL, KC, CIN)

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Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Commanders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)

This is a tough one. The Vikings are going into a bye and teams are 37-61 ATS since 2002 at home going into a bye as favorites of 1-5.5 points. This line is right at even so this game might not qualify, but it’s a point away from qualifying and teams are 2-3 ATS at home going into a bye when the line is even. The Redskins also have the significantly easier next game, as they host the Buccaneers, while the Vikings have to go to Chicago. Teams are 58-97 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. This line is even and both teams have byes before those next games so it’s tough to know if this game qualifies, but the logic does still make sense and it’s a point away from qualifying.

The Redskins also are significantly better in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.55% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 1.12% that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 66.95% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of -3.88%. That suggests that the Redskins should be favored, even before you take into account that Robert Griffin is returning from injury. However, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 13th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars, one of the worst teams in the league. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 70.14% rate, as opposed to 73.85% for their opponents, a differential of -3.71% that would rank 26th in the NFL. Griffin could also be rusty in his first game back. I like the Redskins, but I’m not confident.

Washington Redskins 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)

This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense that it would move like that considering, Philadelphia lost last week in Arizona and Houston blew out the Titans. In spite of that, the public is all over from the Eagles, assuming that a team as good as the Eagles should have no problem beating Houston by a field goal, not realizing that Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record and that this line would be about 7.5 in Philadelphia. For comparison, Philadelphia was 6.5 against the Rams and didn’t even cover, despite getting a return touchdown.

The Eagles have been overly reliant on return touchdowns this season, scoring 6 times on defense and special teams, as opposed to 0 for their opponents. They can’t continually rely on that as a way to score. Their offense hasn’t played well, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate. Their defense has been solid, allowing opponents, to move the chains at a 70.04% rate, a differential of 0.79% that ranks 15th in the NFL. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 70.71% rate, as opposed to 72.09% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. The Eagles shouldn’t be favored here, even with Jason Kelce returning from injury. I’m not confident or anything, but the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Philadelphia Eagles 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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