2014 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Steelers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Buccaneers were blown out in Atlanta last week 56-14. A similar thing should happen this week in Pittsburgh right? Not necessarily. Teams are 45-24 ATS since 2002 coming off of 35+ point losses. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Buccaneers should be all three this week as a result of last week. It’s also really hard to get blown out in back-to-back weeks. The Buccaneers aren’t as bad as they looked last week. They’re not good, but they don’t deserve to be 7.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh so I’m going to fade the public and the overreaction and go with the Buccaneers and the aforementioned trend.

The Buccaneers will have had 10 days to get right before this game, which should help them a lot. Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy, two of their best defensive players, return to a defensive line that needs them badly. Running back Doug Martin is also expected to return. Meanwhile, on the Steelers’ side, they lost 3 defensive starters Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor last week in the victory over Carolina, which will hurt them this week.

Mike Glennon is also expected to start in the absence of the injured Josh McCown and that could be an upgrade. Glennon looked decent last season, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while Josh McCown has been a career journeyman backup for most of his career and has generally proved that this season, completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Glennon looked decent in relief of McCown last week, completing 17 of 24 for 121 yards and a touchdown and should be better now with a week and a half of practice with the first team.

There are some trends that go against the Buccaneers, who go to New Orleans next week. They’re likely to be double digit underdogs next week and teams are 39-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a much easier game next week against the Jaguars. Teams are 70-46 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites. I still like the Buccaneers’ bounce back chances though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)

The Packers fell flat in Detroit last week in a 19-7 loss, but things should be different this week in Chicago for a number of reasons. One, Detroit is a significantly better team than Chicago, an opinion I’ve held since the pre-season. The Bears have exceeded my expectations a little (their win in San Francisco was the most impressive), but there’s no reason for me to change my opinion on Chicago and Detroit. This will be an easier game for the Packers, who are undervalued because people haven’t really caught on to how good the Lions are. There’s no reason the Packers should be underdogs here, even if it’s only as underdogs of one point.

Speaking of the Packers being underdogs, that fact leads into the 2nd reason that this week should go differently for the Packers. They’re in a much better spot this week as they are divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites (against Minnesota next week), while the Bears are going to Carolina next week. Teams are 58-41 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 93-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 93-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008.

The Packers are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.

Even if this line switches to Green Bay favored by a point or two before game time, nullifying all of those trends, I still like the Packers. They’re still in their 2nd straight road game either way and they’re still undervalued and should be able to win by a field goal or more. Other trends help them out, as Rodgers is 18-10 ATS off of a loss in his career. Rodgers is also 10-2 ATS and straight up against the Bears in his career since 2008. This is my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Green Bay +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)

The Jaguars are one of three remaining 0-3 teams. They have the worst point differential in the NFL at -75. The second worst is Tampa Bay at -50 and the majority of that (-42) came last week. The third worst is St. Louis at -29. The Jaguars are also dead last in rate of moving the chains differential at -20.08% and no one else is worse than -9.23% (Buffalo). They’ve been outscored 119-27 over the past 10 quarters after jumping out to a 17-0 lead in Philadelphia week 1. They’re easily the worst team in the NFL.

So why do I like them this week? Well, for one thing, this line is way too high at 13.5. People have caught on to the fact that Jacksonville is terrible and the line seems to be overcompensating for that. The Chargers are a solid team, but they don’t deserve to be favorites of this many points against anyway. This line should be closer to 10. Teams are 40-21 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Jaguars should be all three this week.

The Jaguars looked decent in the 2nd half against Indianapolis last week after 3rd overall pick Blake Bortles took over at halftime. They actually outscored the Colts 17-14 in the 2nd half. Obviously, they were playing against a Colts team that didn’t really care anymore after jumping out to a 30-0 point lead in the first half and the Jaguars’ problems are way deeper than just the quarterback situation. Bortles is a rookie quarterback and not their savior. However, he looked a lot better than Chad Henne, completing 14 of 24 for 223 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. With him under center, I don’t feel uncomfortable picking the Jaguars here as 13.5 point underdogs in a good spot.

This would be a bigger play, but there are two things holding me back. One is that the Jaguars are just so bad. I expect them to give 110% out of embarrassment and for the Chargers to overlook them, but they could still get blown out considering they have 14 double digit losses in their last 20 games. Two, the Jaguars will probably be 3+ point home underdogs next week against Pittsburgh. Teams are 36-77 ATS before being 5+ point home underdogs since 2010 because apparently bad teams don’t usually cover the spread. The Chargers are my survivor pick this week, but I like the Jaguars against the spread.

San Diego Chargers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +13.5

Confidence: Medium

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 4

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 83 10 3 11 4 0 0 83.78%
2 WAS 79 10 5 12 3 3 0 79.46%
3 IND 76 10 6 10 4 3 0 78.90%
4 SF 58 7 4 9 4 1 0 78.31%
5 DAL 71 7 7 8 7 0 0 78.00%
6 BAL 74 6 9 9 3 2 0 77.67%
7 ARZ 67 5 9 9 3 0 0 77.42%
8 DEN 63 9 3 16 2 0 0 77.42%
9 SEA 65 10 5 12 3 1 1 77.32%
10 ATL 73 11 5 11 8 1 0 77.06%
11 CHI 65 8 4 14 4 0 0 76.84%
12 CLE 65 8 6 16 0 0 0 76.84%
13 KC 66 8 4 12 5 2 0 76.29%
14 SD 62 7 6 15 1 1 0 75.00%
15 DET 62 6 7 9 6 1 0 74.73%
16 PIT 65 6 8 13 4 0 0 73.96%
17 PHI 70 9 9 14 5 0 0 73.83%
18 NYG 66 7 3 13 7 3 0 73.74%
19 CIN 62 8 11 12 1 1 0 73.68%
20 STL 61 4 8 9 6 1 0 73.03%
21 HOU 56 6 6 12 4 1 0 72.94%
22 GB 58 6 4 13 3 2 2 72.73%
23 CAR 59 6 8 16 2 0 0 71.43%
24 NYJ 60 6 7 13 6 2 0 70.21%
25 MIA 66 5 8 14 5 5 0 68.93%
26 TEN 59 4 7 15 4 2 1 68.48%
27 NE 57 5 8 15 2 4 0 68.13%
28 TB 45 5 2 13 9 0 0 67.57%
29 MIN 48 4 6 14 4 1 0 67.53%
30 OAK 47 4 3 17 5 0 0 67.11%
31 BUF 46 4 10 14 1 2 1 64.10%
32 JAX 44 5 5 21 5 2 0 59.76%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 WAS 46 5 5 18 3 1 0 65.38%
2 NE 56 4 8 12 8 1 0 67.42%
3 CHI 55 5 9 9 8 2 0 68.18%
4 DET 50 5 3 16 3 2 1 68.75%
5 BAL 52 4 10 12 3 0 0 69.14%
6 MIA 56 8 8 14 4 2 0 69.57%
7 CIN 67 4 5 14 7 3 1 70.30%
8 NYJ 53 7 5 18 2 0 0 70.59%
9 KC 61 6 8 16 0 2 0 72.04%
10 SD 54 6 3 13 3 3 1 72.29%
11 MIN 58 5 6 15 2 1 0 72.41%
12 ATL 61 8 6 13 7 0 0 72.63%
13 TEN 66 7 7 13 5 2 0 73.00%
14 CAR 62 6 5 13 6 1 0 73.12%
15 PHI 70 9 8 15 4 2 0 73.15%
16 BUF 72 5 5 15 5 3 0 73.33%
17 OAK 61 6 9 12 2 1 0 73.63%
18 ARZ 60 6 2 14 5 2 0 74.16%
19 SEA 65 7 5 15 3 1 1 74.23%
20 HOU 68 6 3 12 7 2 0 75.51%
21 NYG 61 7 8 10 3 1 0 75.56%
22 CLE 73 8 7 14 4 1 0 75.70%
23 IND 66 9 6 14 4 0 0 75.76%
24 TB 65 9 8 10 5 0 0 76.29%
25 DAL 58 7 3 10 5 2 0 76.47%
26 PIT 68 7 8 13 2 0 0 76.53%
27 NO 64 6 8 12 1 0 0 76.92%
28 DEN 78 8 6 12 3 3 1 77.48%
29 GB 65 8 5 9 5 1 0 78.49%
30 STL 55 8 6 8 3 0 0 78.75%
31 JAX 83 12 7 12 3 2 0 79.83%
32 SF 69 8 4 8 5 0 0 81.91%

 

Overall

1 WAS 14.08%
2 CHI 8.66%
3 BAL 8.53%
4 NO 6.86%
5 DET 5.98%
6 ATL 4.43%
7 KC 4.25%
8 CIN 3.39%
9 ARZ 3.26%
10 IND 3.14%
11 SEA 3.09%
12 SD 2.71%
13 DAL 1.53%
14 CLE 1.14%
15 NE 0.72%
16 PHI 0.68%
17 DEN -0.06%
18 NYJ -0.38%
19 MIA -0.63%
20 CAR -1.69%
21 NYG -1.82%
22 HOU -2.57%
23 PIT -2.57%
24 SF -3.60%
25 TEN -4.52%
26 MIN -4.88%
27 STL -5.72%
28 GB -5.77%
29 OAK -6.52%
30 TB -8.72%
31 BUF -9.23%
32 JAX -20.08%

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2014 Week 3 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Against the Spread: 11-5

Straight Up: 10-6

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 4-1

Low Confidence: 2-2

No Confidence: 3-2

Upset Picks: 1-1

Against the Spread: 31-17

Straight Up: 27-21

Pick of the Week: 2-1

High Confidence: 1-3

Medium Confidence: 13-2

Low Confidence: 6-5

No Confidence: 9-6

Upset Picks: 3-4

Survivor Picks: 3-0 (PHI, GB, NO)

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Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2)

The Texans are one of three 2-0 teams that I think are fraudulent, along with the Bills and the Cardinals. The Bills are 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers and then won here against the Giants. The Texans, meanwhile, have played the Redskins and the Raiders, which isn’t that impressive of a schedule. However, there’s a good chance they can continue that into week 3 and improve to 3-0 here against the Giants. I’m not that confident, but I like their chances of winning by a field goal or more.

Houston Texans 13 New York Giants 9

Pick against spread: Houston -1

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Ravens are generally not as good on the road as at home, going 42-10 at home since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.96 points per game, as opposed to 30-29 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 0.97 points per game. However, they’re 6-3 ATS as divisional road favorites, including 4-1 ATS against the Browns as divisional road favorites. They’re also in a good spot because this is their first road game. Teams are 39-24 ATS since 1989 when playing their first road game in week 3.  I’m not confident in the Ravens, but they are the pick.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

The Jets are 2.5 point favorites here, but the public is still all over the Bears, suggesting that most people think the Bears are going to pull the upset. Usually when the majority of people think there will be an upset, it doesn’t happen. There’s a reason why the Jets are favorites here. I don’t think they’re a very good team, but the Bears aren’t much better. The Jets went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The Bears also won 8 games last season and were also one of my picks to regress.  The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. I still think they’ll be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, meanwhile, are significantly less than 100%. I think this line should be at 3, suggesting these two teams are even, so we’re getting a small amount of line value by fading the public. I’m not confident though.

New York Jets 19 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 168-177 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 236-339 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.26 points per game.

People are really down on the Chiefs because they’re 0-2 and lost last week in Denver, but they put up a decent fight. 0-2 teams the year after making the playoffs tend to cover the spread. I like their chances this week in Miami as 4 point underdogs. The only reason the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play is because they have to play the Patriots in Kansas City next week and the Dolphins only have to deal with the Raiders in London next week. Teams are 43-71 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. I still like the Chiefs, but not a ton.

Miami Dolphins 20 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Pick against spread: Kansas City +4

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

This game is relatively meaningless for the Cowboys as compared to next week’s game against the Saints in Dallas. Teams are 74-117 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 1989, including 20-39 ATS when both games are non-divisional. They could easily overlook the Rams. They can’t really afford to do that. The Cowboys get Orlando Scandrick back from suspension this week, but this is still one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

They were the worst defense in the NFL last season and then they lost Sean Lee, DeMarcus Ware, and Jason Hatcher, while only gaining Henry Melton, who still doesn’t look 100% coming off of an ACL tear. Austin Davis looked reasonable in Tampa Bay last week in his first career start, completing 22 of 29 for 235 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. These two teams are more even this line (1.5 points in favor of Dallas) suggests and the Cowboys are in a bad spot. I like the Rams’ chances of winning this game.

St. Louis Rams 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5

Confidence: Low

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