2014 NFL Picks

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1)

The trends say that the Patriots should be the right side, as they have another easy game coming up in Kansas City next week, while the Raiders host the Dolphins next week. Teams are 68-44 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites the following week. However, I’m very hesitant to lay 14 points with the Patriots right now, even against the Raiders. The Patriots have won by a margin of more than 14 three times in their last 6 games, but they’ve only done so 5 times in their last 20 games.

Even in their recent blowout wins, the passing game hasn’t been that good as they’ve averaged 173 passing yards per game. Tom Brady has completed 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.82 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in his last 22 games combined, including 56.8% of his passes for an average of 5.18 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Their passing offense will get better as the season goes on as Rob Gronkowski comes closer to full health, but right now I don’t really trust them laying 14 points. I’m not confident in the Raiders at all, but they’re the pick here.

New England Patriots 24 Oakland Raiders 12

Pick against spread: Oakland +14

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Seahawks are usually at auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 42-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 41-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.75 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-40 record away from home (27-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 4.13 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 2 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 18-1 straight up and 14-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.05 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 9.08 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games.

This spread here seems like the definition of boosting the spread for the Seahawks’ homefield advantage as they are 5 point favorites here over the Broncos. Peyton Manning is rarely an underdog, with the exception of week 16 and 17 games when he often used to barely play when with the Colts, resting for the playoffs. Since 2003, he’s been an underdog 17 times in week 15 or earlier, in 142 total games. He’s 13-4 ATS as an underdog and this is actually the most he’s been an underdog of since 2002, a 23-20 win in Denver as 6.5 point underdogs.

The Broncos have definitely been preparing for this game all off-season and this is clearly their biggest regular season game. Manning is 9-4 ATS against non-divisional opponents he lost to the previous season since 2003. A lot of what happened in the Super Bowl was fluky (the Seahawks aren’t actually 35 points better than the Broncos) and I like the Broncos chances of proving that and at least keeping this within a field goal.

The Seahawks are also in a bad spot here going into a bye. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 33-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. That certainly works against the Seahawks here. I hate to go against the Seahawks at home, but I’m taking the points with the Broncos in easily their biggest game of the season against a Seahawks team in a bad spot. It’s not that high of a confidence pick though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Denver Broncos 23

Pick against spread: Denver +5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

With the exception of last week’s epic debacle against the Bears, the 49ers generally are good at beating up on weaker opponents. They are 24-13 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games.

They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. They beat up on a terrible Dallas team week 1 in Dallas by a score of 28-13, before last week’s game, a 28-20 home loss as 7 point favorites, but I think last week is probably the fluke rather than the new normal for this team. They’re highly unlikely to lose the turnover battle by 4 again considering the average team that puts up a -4 turnover differential in a week has an average turnover margin of about +0.1 the following week since 2008 and are 75-52 ATS in that time period.

The Cardinals are 2-0, but they fit that definition of a bad team, hence why the 49ers are favorite by a field goal here on the road. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers week 1 at home and then last week looked underwhelming in a victory over the lowly Giants. Despite their record, it’s possible that no team has lost more from last season to this season than the Cardinals.

On the offensive side of the ball, Carson Palmer is out indefinitely leaving veteran journeyman Drew Stanton to make his 6th career start this week. He completed 14 of 29 for 169 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Giants last week, and the 49ers have a significantly better defense than the Giants so the career 63.5 QB rating quarterback could really struggle. They’ve added Jared Veldheer and given Andre Ellington a bigger role on offense, but the latter is dealing with a bad foot that has him less than 100%.

Defensively is where they’ve lost the most. John Abraham, Darnell Dockett, and Daryl Washington are all out for the season, the first two with injury and the latter with suspension. Karlos Dansby is also gone and Tyrann Mathieu is still not close to 100% after playing just 5 snaps in his return from a torn ACL last week. They’ve added first round pick Deone Buchanan and free agent flier Antonio Cromartie, but this stop unit is nowhere near as talented on paper as they were last season.

I like the 49ers’ chances of proving last week was a fluke and getting a big win here in Arizona by more than a field goal. Not only was last week likely a fluke, but the 49ers almost always bounce back in a big way in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-3-1 ATS following a loss. Straight up, they are 9-2 ATS and outscore opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game. They should be the right side here once again as long as the line stays at a field goal.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

The Steelers are in the better spot here. The Panthers have to travel to Baltimore next week, while the Steelers just have to deal with Tampa Bay in Pittsburgh. Baltimore isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Panthers will still be underdogs, while the Steelers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. The Steelers are also road underdogs after a road loss, after losing in Baltimore last week. Teams cover in that spot at about a 65% rate historically.

However, we’re getting no line value with the Steelers as mere 3.5 point underdogs here in Carolina. This suggests that the Steelers are only a half point worse than the Panthers, which isn’t true. While the Steelers once again look like a middling football team, the Panthers have looked very impressive early in the season, winning on the road without Cam Newton week 1 (even if it was in Tampa Bay) and then winning by double digits at home against a very solid Detroit team last week in Newton’s return.

The Panthers were one of the best teams in the league last season, going 12-4 and finishing 4th in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.51%. I thought they were in for a serious decline this season after losing 4 of their top 5 defensive backs, their top two offensive linemen, and every wide receiver who caught a pass for them, while dealing with a banged up Cam Newton, but they’re one team that has exceeded my expectations to the point where I’ve changed my mind on them.

The trio of Kelvin Benjamin, Jason Avant, and Jerricho Cotchery has proven to be at least comparable to the trio of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn. Their replacement defensive backs have fit well in Sean McDermott’s scheme and their new offensive line has also held up. Last week, they were able to do it without Greg Hardy, who remains out pending the results of his domestic abuse appeal, showing their tremendous defensive line depth. They won’t be the same 12-4 team they were last season, but I could see them competing for a playoff spot and winning about 10 games. It’s a credit to GM Dave Gettleman, Head Coach Ron Rivera, and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. I’m still taking the Steelers here at +3.5 because I’d be terrified of a field goal win by the Panthers if I picked them, especially with all the trends on their side, but I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home underdogs) and now have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 PM ET start. However, I don’t agree with the Bills being favorites here, even as just 2.5 point favorites.

The Bills are a fraudulent 2-0. They’re moving the chains at a 62.00% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents (30th in NFL in differential), as their opponents have picked up 24 more first downs than they have in the last 2 games combined. The Chargers, meanwhile, have moved the chains at a 75.81% rate, as opposed to 74.55%, roughly the same as last season when they made the playoffs at 9-7 and finished 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.26% rate, while allowing opponents to move them at a 75.36% rate.

The Chargers are also in the better spot. The Bills have to travel to Houston next week, while the Chargers just have to deal with Jacksonville in San Diego. Houston isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Bills will still be underdogs, while the Chargers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1)

The Lions looked way better week 1 in their win over the Giants than they did last week in a loss to the Panthers. Week 1, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for the Giants and in week 2 they moved the chains 66.67% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for the Panthers. What was the difference? Well for one, caliber of opponent. The Panthers are much better than the Giants. The Packers are much closer to the Panthers in caliber than the Giants.

However, I still like the Lions here for four reasons. For one, they’re at home where they got that big week 1 victory, a 21 point domination that could have been even more of a blowout, impressive regardless of opponent. Two, the Packers haven’t really looked that good in the first 2 weeks of the season. Their week 1 blowout loss in Seattle was excusable, but they barely beat the Jets last week in Lambeau.

Their offense was much better against the Jets, moving the chains at a 77.78% rate, as opposed to 72.41% in Seattle, but their defense struggled in both cases, allowing the Seahawks to move the chains at an 85.29% rate and the weak Jets’ defense to move the chains at a 73.33% rate. I thought their defense would be better this season than last season (74.60%, 25th in the NFL) because I thought they’d be healthy, but they haven’t been and they’re missing BJ Raji, Casey Hayward, and Brad Jones to significant injuries on that side of the ball. Just because the Lions lost in Carolina to a very solid Panther team doesn’t mean they can’t bounce back at home here and defeat the Packers and their once again weak defense.

Three, Green Bay isn’t the same team on the road, more so than the average team. Since 2010, they are 29-7 and outscore opponents by an average of 10.62 points per game at home, as opposed to 21-16 and an average of 1.46 points per game on the road. Four, the Lions have no distractions on the horizon. While the Packers are in Chicago next week, the Lions have a random non-conference game against the Jets. Teams are 68-44 ATS before being road favorites of 3+ since 2012.

Part of the reason why the Lions struggled last week was probably because they had this game on deck, easily the biggest game of the season for a Detroit team trying to establish itself as a legitimate contender against a team they haven’t had a lot of recent success against (lost 15 of their last 17 against them). This is their regular season Super Bowl. I expect them to play like it and win. Further solidifying my opponent is the fact that this line continues to climb closer to 3 despite the public being all over the underdog. This has all the makings of a trap game for bettors. I’m going the other way. You should too before the line goes to 3.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Confidence: Medium

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

The Jaguars are terrible. They lost last week by the score of 41-10 in Washington even after the Redskins lost RG3 early in the game to injury. They allowed 41 points to a backup quarterback and on the other side of the fall, they were sacked more often (10) than they picked up the first down (8) against what has generally been a terrible defense over the past year or two. The Jaguars moved the chains at a 45.00% rate, while the Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, one of the worst performances by a team I’ve seen in a long time.

The Jaguars were awful last season too, losing 10 of 12 games by double digits and needing a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less to even get to 4-12. Those 4 wins came against opponents who finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential last season. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

The Colts hadn’t lost more than two in a row in the Andrew Luck era before last week and now they’re 0-2, but I still like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here in Jacksonville. The Colts are still 10-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012 and the line here is only 7. In their last 19 games, they have 13 double digit losses. The Colts should be able to make that 14 double digit losses in 20 games. They have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against Tennessee up next. Teams are 40-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are going to San Diego next week and could easily be double digit underdogs. Teams are 39-79 before being double digit underdogs since 2010, including 55-79 as home underdogs before being double digit underdogs since 2002. Finally, 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record or their opponent is really bad (in this game, it’s both).

The Colts don’t have a ton of blowout wins in the Andrew Luck era, winning 15 of their 23 games (including playoffs) since 2012 by a touchdown or less, but they got a blowout victory (XX-XX) here in Jacksonville last year. I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back and getting another blowout victory here, though I’d be more confident if their history of blowout wins was bigger.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)

The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 last week in Cincinnati, making it 10 straight regular season home games that they’ve not only won but covered, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 64.51% for their opponents, the 4th best differential of the week. They should be able to do the same thing this week against an average at best Tennessee team. AJ Green is expected to play after missing most of last week’s blowout victory with injury.

The Bengals are also in a good spot going into a bye. They’ll be completely focused. Teams are 67-28 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorite going into a bye, including 52-17 ATS at home. Here as 7 point favorites, I really like the Bengals’ chances of covering. While the Bengals are in a good spot, the Titans aren’t as they have to go to Indianapolis next week, which is an equally big, if not bigger game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 49-77 ATS before being a divisional road underdog since 2002. This has all the makings of a blowout.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

The Redskins looked very good in Kirk Cousins 2014 debut last week, as Robert Griffin went down with a significant ankle injury a few plays into what ended up being one of the most dominant performances by a team I’ve seen in a while. The Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars. However, it was just the Jaguars so I’m still skeptical. He completed 52.3% of his passes for an average of 5.51 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 3 starts against some of the worst defenses in the league (Atlanta, Dallas, NY Giants) last season.

Will the Redskins’ continue to have success this week? I like their chances. Philadelphia doesn’t have a good defense. They looked decent against Jacksonville week 1, but they were terrible last season and they let the Colts move the chains at a 77.78% rate last week in an eventual Philadelphia win. The Eagles also haven’t been as good offensively as last season, moving the chains at a 72.97% rate despite playing Indianapolis and Jacksonville, who don’t have good defenses. They’re going to continue to miss Evan Mathis, their best offensive lineman, this week.

This should be a shoot-out and I like the Redskins chances of at least keeping it close against a Philadelphia team that has stumbled out of the gates to 2-0. The Eagles are in a hard spot as they have to go to San Francisco next week, while the Redskins are home for the Giants next week. Divisional road underdogs are 57-41 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. I’m grabbing the 6.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +6.5

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

The Falcons looked pretty good week 1 against the Saints, but they fell flat on their face in Cincinnati last week. However, I expect them to bounce back here for three reasons. One, Jake Matthews is back from injury and will take over again on the blindside. Two, the Falcons are a much better team at home. Matt Ryan is 29-19 ATS in his career, at home. On top of that, Matt Ryan is very good off of a loss, going 22-10 ATS.

This would be a bigger play, but the Buccaneers are in a good spot playing their first road game of the season week 3, as teams are 39-24 ATS in that situation since 1989. However, as long as the number is under a touchdown, I like the Falcons chances here. The Buccaneers aren’t a very good team, especially since they could be missing both Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson from a solid, but top heavy defensive unit. The Falcons are a good team, as long as they’re at home and I give them the edge here in a bounce back game on a short week on Thursday Night.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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