2014 NFL Picks

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

The Saints are 0-2, but I’m not too worried about them. If one of their offensive players had been able to tackle Tashaun Gipson on his eventual pick 6, there’s a very good chance they’d be 1-1 right now and heading home to face the Vikings as at least 12 point favorites. They weren’t able to do that and they lost as a result, but both of their first two games were very close and I’m not going to completely throw out my pre-season evaluation of this team just because of a few plays that didn’t go their way.

We’re getting a ton of line value with them as a result of public overreaction. The Saints as just 9.5 point home favorites is stealing considering how good they are at home. The Saints are 31-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 16-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 17 of those games by an average of about 20.8 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. They should be able to win by double digits here against an average at best Vikings team.

As I mentioned, this line is an overreaction. The Saints are moving the chains at an 81.81% rate, as opposed to 80.28% for their opponents. 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record. Finally, on top of that, Drew Brees usually bounces back well. He’s 18-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline since 2008. He didn’t last week on the road, but he’s 13-2 at home in that situation. This is my pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Minnesota Vikings 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen is out for the season on an offensive line that was already thin after losing 31 games of starting experience from the 2013 team. Their loss at home to Tennessee was probably a sign of things to come, now that they have a way tougher schedule, they won’t be able to dominate the turnover battle as much, and they simply aren’t as talented as they were last season thanks to injuries and off-season losses.

However, I think this line at 12 is too big. The Broncos aren’t the same offense as they were last season when they just ran through everyone in blowout fashion. Eric Decker is gone. Wes Welker is still suspended. Peyton Manning is highly unlikely to repeat last season, especially with a tougher schedule and at age 38. I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Chiefs or anything, but I’m going to grab the points and hope they can keep it within 10 or so and catch the Broncos looking forward to a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle next week.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City +12

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)

I really hate to go against the Seahawks. They were obviously Super Bowl champs last year and deserving ones at that and now they return with their same young core. They looked every bit as good as they always had last week, beating the Packers 36-16 in a game that could have been even more of a blowout. They moved the chains at an 85.29% rate, as opposed to 72.41% for the Packers, giving them the 2nd best differential of the week last week against a Green Bay team that very well could still be destined for big things.

However, they’re not at home now and they don’t have the crazy crowd pumped off of the ring ceremony on their side. This could very well be a big hangover game for them after last season and after last season. I also feel like this line is a little overinflated in San Diego against a Charger team that is at least average. The public is still all over the 6 point favorite Seahawks here and when in doubt fade the public. I wish I was getting a few more points to play with and I’m not confident at all, but the Chargers are my pick here.

Seattle Seahawks 20 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against spread: San Diego +6

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

The Buccaneers are in a bad spot here with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. Teams are 14-30 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. I also think we’re getting some line value with the Rams. The Buccaneers aren’t really that good. They didn’t look good at all last week, losing at home to Derek Anderson and the Panthers. They’re also really banged up with both Adrian Clayborn and Michael Johnson out for this one and Doug Martin likely to be less than 100% even if he plays.

They could easily finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover only about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. The Rams didn’t look good last week, but they don’t deserve to be underdogs of this much in Tampa Bay. No one really does, with the exception of maybe Jacksonville. People are overreacting to how bad they looked last week. Some people had this as a surprise playoff team before Sam Bradford got hurt and now all of a sudden they’re seen as maybe the worst team in the NFL.

Realistically, they are and have always been somewhere in between. Bradford’s loss isn’t that big of a deal because Shaun Hill is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He wasn’t fantastic last week, completing 8 of 13 for 81 yards and an interception before going down with a thigh injury, but in his career he’s completed 61.9% of his passes for an average of 6.68 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. He’s 34 and hasn’t played a lot since 2010, but he’s still a solid backup. The Rams should finish around 5-11 or 6-10 and I don’t think they’re that much worse than the Buccaneers. I’m not that confident in the Rams because I don’t know if Hill is going to play or be 100% and Austin Davis looked awful last week, but they should be the right side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Eagles were down 17-0 early against the Jaguars last week at home, before coming back and winning 34-17. Their offense looked solid again, as it did last season with Nick Foles, but their defense continued to struggle. This line suggests these two teams are even, but I don’t think that’s the case right now as the Eagles’ offensive line is falling apart. Lane Johnson is still suspended. Allen Barbre, his replacement, is now out with an injury. Meanwhile, left guard Evan Mathis, one of the best offensive linemen in the league, was put on injured reserve with intent to return and will miss a significant period of time. The Eagles’ defense will continue to struggle and the offense won’t be as good with the offensive line banged up.

The Colts are also in the better spot here. Teams are 52-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Jacksonville next week) since 2008. The Colts are also very good off of a loss and at home in the Andrew Luck era. They are 10-0 ATS off of a loss since Luck was drafted in 2012 and 11-5 ATS at home in that same time period. I like the Colts’ chances of beating a banged up Eagles team here in the first Monday Night Football game in Indianapolis in the Andrew Luck era.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

Ordinarily, I don’t like to pick the Saints on the road. I was 15-2-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-1-2 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I did that by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them in Chicago as 1 point favorites because I correctly believed the Bears to be overrated at that point. The Saints went 7-0-1 ATS at home last season, but they are 2-8-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Here they are 6.5 point favorites on the road in Cleveland and the public is all over the Saints, which makes me want to take the Browns.

However, I have a hard time taking the Browns without Jordan Cameron against a team like the Saints that, for all their road struggles, is still one of the most talented in the NFL. Drew Brees is also very good off of a loss in his career as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, going 18-5 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams are better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st one. Since 2008, teams are 434-615 in their first road game, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. Meanwhile, teams are 181-205 in their second road game, getting outscored by an average of 0.66 points per game. Finally, the Saints have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against the Vikings up next. Teams are 44-32 ATS since 2008 as road favorites before being double digit home favorites. I’m not confident at all, but the Saints are my pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

The Cardinals were one of my overrated teams coming into the season and I still think that’s true, even after their 1 point comeback victory at home over the Chargers on Monday Night Football week 1. They get Tyrann Mathieu back from injury this week and Andre Ellington was able to play through his foot problem last week and have moderate success, but neither of them are 100%. Guys like Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, and Darnell Dockett are all still gone from that 2013 defense and now John Abraham is out with a concussion and considering retirement.

On the offensive side of the ball, Jonathan Cooper, the 7th overall pick in 2013, is still not 100% coming back from the leg injury that cost him his whole rookie season and has yet to prove himself worthy of a starting job to the coaching staff. Carson Palmer, now in his age 35 season, looked decent against the Chargers, but should struggle against better defenses. The Giants don’t have a great defense, but they’re still more talented than the Chargers’ stop unit, which was one of the worst in the NFL in 2014. Palmer is also dealing with a bad shoulder.

The Giants have a lot of issues, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but I don’t think they should be 2.5 point home underdogs here against Arizona. The Giants were 1.5 point favorites a week ago and I don’t think enough happened last week for this line to move 4 points. The Giants were blown out in Detroit, but I don’t think people realize how good Detroit is going to be this year. The Cardinals easily could have been blown out there as well.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, with a game against the 49ers on deck. Teams are 44-60 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 2002, including 18-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs since 1989. The Cardinals have bigger things on the horizon, while the Giants have a random game against the Texans on deck. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Giants, but they should still be the right side.

New York Giants 17 Arizona Cardinals 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: NY Giants +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

This is a tough one and one I don’t really have a strong opinion on. On one hand, I don’t know if I’m ready to bet on the Texans as field goal favorites. On the other hand, I do think the Texans are going to bounce back in a big way this season. They looked good in the opener in a 19-6 win over another team I think is going to bounce back this season, the Washington Redskins.  The Texans’ offense isn’t great, but they have one of the better defenses in the league. They went 2-14 year, but they were much better than their record.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They were also killed by turnovers last year, going -20 in that aspect and having serious issues with return touchdowns. They finished 21st in rate of moving the chains (including 11th defensively), which was more indicative of their talent level than their record.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the league and they’re in a tough spot here as they have a bigger game in New England next week. They could easily overlook the Texans here. Teams are 39-78 before being double digit underdogs since 2010, including 55-78 as home underdogs before being double digit underdogs since 2002. The Texans, meanwhile, have to play the Giants next week, which is a much easier game. The Texans are the side I’m going with, but I’m not confident and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this ended up being a push and a field goal win by the Texans.

Houston Texans 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Houston -3

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)

I had the Cowboys at 4-12 coming into the season, but even that might have been a little optimistic, based on their play against the 49ers week 1 in a 28-13 home loss. Their defense was just as bad as I expected, unable to get off the field and essentially showing themselves to be non-existent. However, Tony Romo looked like he was turning into 2014’s version of Matt Schaub in 2013, an older non-top tier quarterback who sees his abilities randomly fall off a cliff. Romo threw 3 picks, 2 of which were awful. In his age 34 season, coming off of serious back surgery, it’s a concern.

The Cowboys offense moved the chains well when they weren’t turning the ball over and it’s important not to overreact to one game so I’m not moving them down in my book any further from where I had them, but I still think this is a terrible team with easily the worst defense in the league and an offense that won’t be able to keep up. The Titans aren’t a great team (their win in Kansas City was more an indictment of the Chiefs than a sign that the Titans will be good this season), but they’re still noticeably better than the Cowboys. We’re getting line value with them as they’re more than a half point better than the Titans.

The reason the Titans aren’t a bigger play this week is because they aren’t in a great situation. They have a much tougher game than the Cowboys next week as they go to Cincinnati while the Cowboys go to St. Louis. Teams are 67-96 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002, while teams are 86-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs since 2010. The Titans should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5

Confidence: Low

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